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- 杨铭琪杨铭琪
  ·2021-02-01
  fake news
  The short squeeze has turned to silver! Are the traders behind the scenes really retail investors?
  未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？
  The short squeeze has turned to silver! Are the traders behind the scenes really retail investors?
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news&nbsp;","listText":"fake news&nbsp;","text":"fake news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/315092112","repostId":"1103378464","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103378464","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612172827,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1103378464?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-01 17:47","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"The short squeeze has turned to silver! Are the traders behind the scenes really retail investors?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103378464","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？","content":"<p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors squeezing shorts and institutional investors paying the price unfold again? Behind the large-scale short selling, are the masterminds really just retail investors? What fate will silver face in the future? The short squeeze in the stock market has not yet ended, and American retail investors have opened new ground in the futures market.</p><p>The story begins exactly the same way. Last week, on WallStreetBets, another \"gamblers' forum,\" a user posted a message calling on retail investors to \"launch the world's largest silver short squeeze\" and boldly declaring that he would push the price of silver from $25 to a high of $1,000, attracting a large number of respondents.</p><p>Both spot and futures silver prices surged, and the world's largest silver ETF—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>Silver Trust also saw a huge inflow of funds. The rally in the silver market has even spread to other countries around the world, affecting domestic futures markets and Australian silver mining stocks.</p><p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors squeezing shorts and institutional investors paying the price unfold again? Behind the large-scale short selling, are the masterminds really just retail investors? What fate will silver face in the future?</p><p><b>A post triggered a surge in silver prices.</b></p><p>In a previous article, Wall Street Insights mentioned that just as the GameStop short squeeze was attracting significant market attention, a user with the ID \"jjalj30\" on the WallStreetBets forum posted a message calling on retail investors to focus the next round of short squeeze on silver:</p><p>jjalj30 stated that the silver market is currently one of the most manipulated markets in the world. Dozens of banks manipulate gold and silver prices to mask real inflation. Whether in the industrial or monetary sectors, the current monetary easing by global central banks should push up silver prices.<b>The inflation-adjusted price of silver should be $1,000 per ounce, instead of the current $25 per ounce.</b>\"jjalj30\" believes that retail investors can push up silver prices by continuously buying silver ETFs (SLVs) to create a short squeeze.<b>Even if retail investors don't care about returns, consider something similar...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It is exciting enough that such a large bank (which had previously paid a huge fine for silver price manipulation) could go bankrupt due to a short squeeze.</b>Subsequently, an investor with the username \"TheHappyHawaiian\" expressed a similar view.<b>It is believed that by raising silver prices, more silver futures contracts can be forced into physical delivery, thereby squeezing out short sellers.</b></p><p>\"TheHappyHawaiian\" stated that manipulating silver prices through naked short selling is mainly done by several major Wall Street banks, represented by JPMorgan Chase. Currently, the average ratio of book-traded silver to physical silver in the silver futures market is 250:1, which means that most transactions are completed through cash settlement rather than physical delivery. As long as retail investors can force more futures contracts to be physically delivered, they can squeeze silver shorts.<b>Driven by the recent frenzied market atmosphere, the post had an immediate effect. Almost like practice makes perfect, investors pushed spot silver prices up more than 10% today, reaching $30 per ounce at one point and setting a new high since August 11 last year.</b>Futures also opened up 7%, surging to a high of $29.095. At the same time, the gold-silver ratio has also reached its lowest level since 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544a19ab8a6d5f1fb2f5c9da49f248cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><i>Spot silver briefly broke through $30 per ounce during the day.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32c45cb4746091e927b69e81d46cb84\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Spot silver hit a new high since August last year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1bc64e4ba9416dad89d3336847b6eb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Comex silver futures surge</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c022e64b306cc738f116b32b3af669a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The gold-silver ratio is at its lowest since 2014.</i></p><p>In fact, silver prices had already fluctuated significantly as early as last Friday, with silver futures rising by more than 6% during the session, while gold futures rose by only about 0.5% during the same period.</p><p><b>The strong upward trend has even spread to other countries around the world.</b>In China's domestic commodity futures market, the main Shanghai silver contract rose as much as 8%, hitting a new high since September last year. Australian silver mining stocks also surged on Monday morning, with Argent Minerals up nearly 60%, Investigator Resources up nearly 50%, and Boab Metal up 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c070cbb74d6465b3da84a0fcb64d844\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The world's largest silver ETF also saw a significant inflow of funds. Market data shows that the Silver ETF (SLV) saw a single-day inflow of $1 billion last Friday, almost double the previous record for the 15-year-old ETF's highest inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2e9cb0ccad6244d34bf3ed1dbe0def\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Amid the frenzy in the silver market, silver bars and coins on retail websites are also in short supply. According to Bloomberg, numerous retailers, including Money Metals, SD Bullion, JM Bullion, and Apmex, have stated that due to the current frenzied demand for silver, they are unable to process orders before the opening of the Asian market and have suspended sales of silver products.</p><p>The CEO of SD Bullion stated in his article,<b>In the 24 hours leading up to Friday's close, SD Bullion sold nearly 10 times the amount of silver it usually sold over the entire weekend before the market opened on Sunday.</b></p><p>The report quoted Robert Higgins, CEO of Argent Asset Group in Delaware, as saying that he was handling trading calls all day long, people were desperately buying gold and silver, and the spot market was \"very, very tight\" right now.</p><p><b>But are they really retail investors?</b></p><p>Are the masterminds behind this really just retail investors? In fact, every major short squeeze seems to be fueled by institutional investors.</p><p>Many analysts believe that, judging from forum posts, the techniques and strategies of short squeezing are not as professional as those of retail investors. Guo Yafu, president of New York-based Tianjiao Fund, told the Shanghai Securities News:</p><p>I carefully studied their post calling for long positions in silver. Judging from the content, it was definitely not something an ordinary retail investor could write. The post even mentioned JPMorgan Chase's short positions.<b>If there were no institutions involved, at least some people working in financial institutions participated in their personal capacities.</b>Huang Jun, a special analyst at FXTM Futuo, also stated:<b>Many institutions have always been involved, such as some funds and silver miners.</b>”</p><p>Perhaps this view can be confirmed by the following:<b>The full text of the post mentioning \"TheHappyHawaiian\" even provided a highly professional \"operation template\".</b>In practice, he wrote:</p><p>I will invest 50% of my funds directly in the SLV ETF and the other 50% in SLV call options expiring on April 16 with a strike price of $35.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d875f71eb18b37c0b2ddd3d1c96b97\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Increased positions in SLV will trigger a rise in silver prices, creating a short squeeze when SLV approaches $35. If a short squeeze occurs, the target price for SLV will reach $75 by the end of April. A more prudent approach is to purchase SLV options and PSLV stock. Not only that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">Sina</a>Caijing pointed out that<b>This article also explains why, among the two major silver ETFs, PSLV and SLV, SLV is the better target.</b>Because SLV itself has few short sellers, but there are many arbitrage positions within SLV, which are linked to the spot and futures markets for silver. Dismantling SLV can cause the large number of silver short sellers gathered on the Comex exchange to collapse collectively.</p><p>The article states that JPMorgan Chase has few short sellers left, so it will not encounter much resistance to buying silver now. In addition, SLV has other advantages, including: more brokers offering trading for this underlying asset, better liquidity, and related options trading.</p><p><b>What is the future of silver?</b></p><p>So, the most pressing question for the market is: how long can this surge in silver prices last?</p><p>The general view among market analysts seems to be that they are slightly bullish in the short term, but in the long run, this rally may only be temporary.</p><p><b>At the time of writing, spot silver prices had briefly risen above $30 per ounce around 4:10 on Monday. It is worth noting that this level has been broken.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The previously estimated 12-month target price was $30.</b></p><p>John Feeney, an analyst at Australian trader Guardian Vaults, said that while joint actions on Reddit can indeed significantly impact the prices of individual stocks, he does not believe they have the ability to significantly push silver into a short squeeze when compared to the market capitalization of individual companies.<b>Silver has a very large market capitalization, and people on the forum want it to rise quickly, so they personally won't be bullish too much.</b></p><p>Some analysts pointed out that<b>Most importantly, there is a fundamental difference between the precious metals market and the stock market. Attempting to squeeze out silver shorts could very well affect the foreign exchange market. If this happens, central banks around the world will definitely intervene.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Gain Capital Group</a>Joe Perry Represents:</p><p>Precious metals typically act as a hedge against inflation, and they rise against the backdrop of a frequently weakening US dollar. Neither silver ETFs nor spot silver/USD are stocks. If people try to squeeze out silver shorts, it could affect the dollar and the world's largest trading market, the foreign exchange market, which is the main difference between precious metals and stocks. If silver, as a precious metal, is targeted by short sellers, it could affect the trend of the US dollar. But if it does happen, don't assume that central banks will stand idly by. There may be many reasons for the dollar's decline, but the \"game\" against precious metals will not be one of them. However, some organizations hold different views. As a safe-haven asset, it is also used for production.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">solar energy</a>Many institutions have recently been strongly bullish on silver, an industrial metal for products such as solar panels. Metals Focus analyst Philip Newman has stated that 2021 may see gold and palladium prices reach new highs, but silver will see the largest increase.</p><p>From a technical perspective, market analyst Jesse Colombo wrote on Forbes on Sunday,<b>If silver can break through $30 on strong trading volume, the likelihood of subsequent bullish moves will increase significantly, with the next target price being $35 per ounce.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2afce75bc1cca3a69ed1fc3178148a\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The short squeeze has turned to silver! 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Are the traders behind the scenes really retail investors?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-01 17:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors squeezing shorts and institutional investors paying the price unfold again? Behind the large-scale short selling, are the masterminds really just retail investors? What fate will silver face in the future? The short squeeze in the stock market has not yet ended, and American retail investors have opened new ground in the futures market.</p><p>The story begins exactly the same way. Last week, on WallStreetBets, another \"gamblers' forum,\" a user posted a message calling on retail investors to \"launch the world's largest silver short squeeze\" and boldly declaring that he would push the price of silver from $25 to a high of $1,000, attracting a large number of respondents.</p><p>Both spot and futures silver prices surged, and the world's largest silver ETF—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>Silver Trust also saw a huge inflow of funds. The rally in the silver market has even spread to other countries around the world, affecting domestic futures markets and Australian silver mining stocks.</p><p>At the beginning of February, will the drama of retail investors squeezing shorts and institutional investors paying the price unfold again? Behind the large-scale short selling, are the masterminds really just retail investors? What fate will silver face in the future?</p><p><b>A post triggered a surge in silver prices.</b></p><p>In a previous article, Wall Street Insights mentioned that just as the GameStop short squeeze was attracting significant market attention, a user with the ID \"jjalj30\" on the WallStreetBets forum posted a message calling on retail investors to focus the next round of short squeeze on silver:</p><p>jjalj30 stated that the silver market is currently one of the most manipulated markets in the world. Dozens of banks manipulate gold and silver prices to mask real inflation. Whether in the industrial or monetary sectors, the current monetary easing by global central banks should push up silver prices.<b>The inflation-adjusted price of silver should be $1,000 per ounce, instead of the current $25 per ounce.</b>\"jjalj30\" believes that retail investors can push up silver prices by continuously buying silver ETFs (SLVs) to create a short squeeze.<b>Even if retail investors don't care about returns, consider something similar...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>It is exciting enough that such a large bank (which had previously paid a huge fine for silver price manipulation) could go bankrupt due to a short squeeze.</b>Subsequently, an investor with the username \"TheHappyHawaiian\" expressed a similar view.<b>It is believed that by raising silver prices, more silver futures contracts can be forced into physical delivery, thereby squeezing out short sellers.</b></p><p>\"TheHappyHawaiian\" stated that manipulating silver prices through naked short selling is mainly done by several major Wall Street banks, represented by JPMorgan Chase. Currently, the average ratio of book-traded silver to physical silver in the silver futures market is 250:1, which means that most transactions are completed through cash settlement rather than physical delivery. As long as retail investors can force more futures contracts to be physically delivered, they can squeeze silver shorts.<b>Driven by the recent frenzied market atmosphere, the post had an immediate effect. Almost like practice makes perfect, investors pushed spot silver prices up more than 10% today, reaching $30 per ounce at one point and setting a new high since August 11 last year.</b>Futures also opened up 7%, surging to a high of $29.095. At the same time, the gold-silver ratio has also reached its lowest level since 2014.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/544a19ab8a6d5f1fb2f5c9da49f248cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><i>Spot silver briefly broke through $30 per ounce during the day.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b32c45cb4746091e927b69e81d46cb84\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Spot silver hit a new high since August last year.</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1bc64e4ba9416dad89d3336847b6eb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>Comex silver futures surge</i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c022e64b306cc738f116b32b3af669a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><i>The gold-silver ratio is at its lowest since 2014.</i></p><p>In fact, silver prices had already fluctuated significantly as early as last Friday, with silver futures rising by more than 6% during the session, while gold futures rose by only about 0.5% during the same period.</p><p><b>The strong upward trend has even spread to other countries around the world.</b>In China's domestic commodity futures market, the main Shanghai silver contract rose as much as 8%, hitting a new high since September last year. Australian silver mining stocks also surged on Monday morning, with Argent Minerals up nearly 60%, Investigator Resources up nearly 50%, and Boab Metal up 20%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c070cbb74d6465b3da84a0fcb64d844\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The world's largest silver ETF also saw a significant inflow of funds. Market data shows that the Silver ETF (SLV) saw a single-day inflow of $1 billion last Friday, almost double the previous record for the 15-year-old ETF's highest inflow.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e2e9cb0ccad6244d34bf3ed1dbe0def\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"539\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Amid the frenzy in the silver market, silver bars and coins on retail websites are also in short supply. According to Bloomberg, numerous retailers, including Money Metals, SD Bullion, JM Bullion, and Apmex, have stated that due to the current frenzied demand for silver, they are unable to process orders before the opening of the Asian market and have suspended sales of silver products.</p><p>The CEO of SD Bullion stated in his article,<b>In the 24 hours leading up to Friday's close, SD Bullion sold nearly 10 times the amount of silver it usually sold over the entire weekend before the market opened on Sunday.</b></p><p>The report quoted Robert Higgins, CEO of Argent Asset Group in Delaware, as saying that he was handling trading calls all day long, people were desperately buying gold and silver, and the spot market was \"very, very tight\" right now.</p><p><b>But are they really retail investors?</b></p><p>Are the masterminds behind this really just retail investors? In fact, every major short squeeze seems to be fueled by institutional investors.</p><p>Many analysts believe that, judging from forum posts, the techniques and strategies of short squeezing are not as professional as those of retail investors. Guo Yafu, president of New York-based Tianjiao Fund, told the Shanghai Securities News:</p><p>I carefully studied their post calling for long positions in silver. Judging from the content, it was definitely not something an ordinary retail investor could write. The post even mentioned JPMorgan Chase's short positions.<b>If there were no institutions involved, at least some people working in financial institutions participated in their personal capacities.</b>Huang Jun, a special analyst at FXTM Futuo, also stated:<b>Many institutions have always been involved, such as some funds and silver miners.</b>”</p><p>Perhaps this view can be confirmed by the following:<b>The full text of the post mentioning \"TheHappyHawaiian\" even provided a highly professional \"operation template\".</b>In practice, he wrote:</p><p>I will invest 50% of my funds directly in the SLV ETF and the other 50% in SLV call options expiring on April 16 with a strike price of $35.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d875f71eb18b37c0b2ddd3d1c96b97\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"253\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Increased positions in SLV will trigger a rise in silver prices, creating a short squeeze when SLV approaches $35. If a short squeeze occurs, the target price for SLV will reach $75 by the end of April. A more prudent approach is to purchase SLV options and PSLV stock. Not only that,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">Sina</a>Caijing pointed out that<b>This article also explains why, among the two major silver ETFs, PSLV and SLV, SLV is the better target.</b>Because SLV itself has few short sellers, but there are many arbitrage positions within SLV, which are linked to the spot and futures markets for silver. Dismantling SLV can cause the large number of silver short sellers gathered on the Comex exchange to collapse collectively.</p><p>The article states that JPMorgan Chase has few short sellers left, so it will not encounter much resistance to buying silver now. In addition, SLV has other advantages, including: more brokers offering trading for this underlying asset, better liquidity, and related options trading.</p><p><b>What is the future of silver?</b></p><p>So, the most pressing question for the market is: how long can this surge in silver prices last?</p><p>The general view among market analysts seems to be that they are slightly bullish in the short term, but in the long run, this rally may only be temporary.</p><p><b>At the time of writing, spot silver prices had briefly risen above $30 per ounce around 4:10 on Monday. It is worth noting that this level has been broken.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>The previously estimated 12-month target price was $30.</b></p><p>John Feeney, an analyst at Australian trader Guardian Vaults, said that while joint actions on Reddit can indeed significantly impact the prices of individual stocks, he does not believe they have the ability to significantly push silver into a short squeeze when compared to the market capitalization of individual companies.<b>Silver has a very large market capitalization, and people on the forum want it to rise quickly, so they personally won't be bullish too much.</b></p><p>Some analysts pointed out that<b>Most importantly, there is a fundamental difference between the precious metals market and the stock market. Attempting to squeeze out silver shorts could very well affect the foreign exchange market. If this happens, central banks around the world will definitely intervene.</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCAP\">Gain Capital Group</a>Joe Perry Represents:</p><p>Precious metals typically act as a hedge against inflation, and they rise against the backdrop of a frequently weakening US dollar. Neither silver ETFs nor spot silver/USD are stocks. If people try to squeeze out silver shorts, it could affect the dollar and the world's largest trading market, the foreign exchange market, which is the main difference between precious metals and stocks. If silver, as a precious metal, is targeted by short sellers, it could affect the trend of the US dollar. But if it does happen, don't assume that central banks will stand idly by. There may be many reasons for the dollar's decline, but the \"game\" against precious metals will not be one of them. However, some organizations hold different views. As a safe-haven asset, it is also used for production.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000591\">solar energy</a>Many institutions have recently been strongly bullish on silver, an industrial metal for products such as solar panels. Metals Focus analyst Philip Newman has stated that 2021 may see gold and palladium prices reach new highs, but silver will see the largest increase.</p><p>From a technical perspective, market analyst Jesse Colombo wrote on Forbes on Sunday,<b>If silver can break through $30 on strong trading volume, the likelihood of subsequent bullish moves will increase significantly, with the next target price being $35 per ounce.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b2afce75bc1cca3a69ed1fc3178148a\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619090\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58095e3601987d1105ddaad4a3be8aeb","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619090","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1103378464","content_text":"二月伊始，散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演？大规模做空背后，背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗？未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？股市战场的逼空尚未落下帷幕，美国散户又在期货市场开掘了新的阵地。故事的开端如出一辙。上周，同样是“赌徒论坛” WallStreetBets上，一位用户发帖号召散户“发动一场全球最大的白银逼空”，并豪言要将银价从25美元拉到1000美元高位，引来应者云集。一时间现货、期货银价双双大涨，全球最大的白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust也迎来巨额资金流入。白银市场涨势甚至蔓延到全球其他国家，国内期市、澳大利亚银矿股均受到波及。二月伊始，散户逼空、机构买单的大戏是否又将上演？大规模做空背后，背后的主谋又真的仅仅是散户吗？未来白银又将迎来怎样的命运？一篇帖子引发银价暴涨华尔街见闻在此前文章中提到，就在GameStop逼空引得市场高度关注之际，WallStreetBets论坛上一名ID为“jjalj30”的用户，发帖号召散户将下一轮逼空火力聚焦在白银上：“jjalj30”表示，白银市场目前是全球最受操纵的市场之一。数十家银行通过操纵黄金和白银价格来掩盖实际的通货膨胀。无论是在工业领域还是在货币领域，目前全球央行的放水行动都该推高白银价格。 经过通胀调整后的白银价格应该是1000美元/盎司，而不是现在的25美元/盎司。“jjalj30”认为，散户投资者可以通过持续买入白银ETF（SLV）来进行逼空，推高白银价格。 即使散户投资者不在乎收益，想想类似摩根大通（此前因白银价格操作支付巨额罚单）这样的大行可能因为逼空而破产，这就足以激动人心。随后，用户名为“TheHappyHawaiian”的投资者也表达了类似观点，认为可以通过抬高银价迫使更多白银期货合约进行实物交割，从而挤压空头。“TheHappyHawaiian”表示，市场上通过裸卖空操纵白银价格主要是以摩根大通为代表的几家华尔街大行。目前白银期货市场上账面交易的白银与实物白银的平均比率为250:1，这意味着多数交易是通过现金结算而不是实物交割完成交易。只要散户投资者能迫使更多的期货合约进行实物交割，就能挤压白银空头。近期狂热市场氛围的推动下，帖子一出效果立竿见影。一众投资者几乎是熟能生巧一般地，今天将现货白银价格猛推至日内暴涨逾10%，一度站上30美元/盎司，并创下去年8月11日以来新高；期货开盘也上涨7％，飙升至29.095美元高点。与此同时，金银比也来到2014年来最低水平。现货白银日内短暂突破30美元/盎司现货白银创下去年8月来新高Comex白银期货猛飙金银比为2014来最低而事实上早在上周五，白银价格就已经出现大幅波动，白银期货盘中涨幅一度突破6%，而黄金期货同期涨幅仅约0.5%。强劲的涨势甚至蔓延到全球其他国家。中国国内商品期市上，沪银主力合约涨幅一度扩大至8%，刷新去年9月以来高位。澳大利亚银矿股周一早间股价也大幅飙升， Argent Minerals上涨近60%，Investigator Resources涨近50%，Boab Metal涨20%。全球最大白银ETF也迎来资金大幅流入。市场数据显示，白银ETF（SLV）上周五单日流入资金高达10亿美元，这几乎是这个已有15年历史ETF此前最高流入记录的2倍。银市疯狂之下，零售网站上的银条、银币也随之供不应求。据彭博报道，包括Money Metals、SD Bullion、JM Bullion和Apmex在内的诸多零售商均表示，鉴于白银当前的疯狂需求，它们在亚洲市场开盘前无法处理订单，已暂停销售白银产品。SD Bullion首席执行官在其文章中表示，周五收盘前的24小时内，SD Bullion卖出白银数量，几乎是平时周日开盘前整个周末卖出数量的近10倍。报道援引特拉华州Argent Asset Group首席执行官Robert Higgins称，他整天都在处理交易电话，人们都在拼命购买黄金和白银，当前现货市场“非常、非常吃紧”。但是，真的是散户？幕后主谋真的只是散户吗？事实上，每一场逼空大戏背后，似乎都离不开机构的推波助澜。不少分析师认为，从论坛上的帖子来看，逼空的手法和策略的专业度并不似散户所为。纽约天骄基金公司总裁郭亚夫告诉对上海证券报表示：我认真研读了他们号召做多白银的帖子，从内容上看，绝对不是普通散户可以写出来的内容，帖子里甚至提到了摩根大通的空头仓位。 如果说没有机构影子的话，至少也有在金融机构工作的人以个人名义参与了。FXTM富拓特约分析师黄俊也称：“有很多机构一直在里面，比如一些基金和白银矿商。”也许能印证这一观点的是，上述提及“TheHappyHawaiian”用户的发帖全文中，甚至给出了颇具专业性的“操作模板”。具体操作上，他写道：我将把50%的资金直接投资于SLV ETF，另外50%投资于4月16日到期的SLV看涨期权，行权价35美元。SLV的持仓量增加将引发白银价格上涨，当SLV接近35美元时，就会产生空头挤压。如果出现轧空，4月底SLV的目标价将达到75美元。更为审慎的做法是购买SLV期权和PSLV股票。不仅如此，新浪财经指出，该文还解释了为何在PSLV和SLV两大白银ETF中，SLV是更好的标的，因为SLV自身没有什么空头，但SLV内部有很多套利盘，这些套利盘与白银的现货、期货市场相联，打掉SLV就可以让Comex交易所里面大量聚集的白银空头集体崩溃。该文表示，现在摩根大通手上已经没什么空头了，所以现在拉白银不会遇到太大阻力。此外，SLV还有其他优势，包括：有更多经纪商提供这一标的的交易、流动性更好、有相关期权交易。白银后市如何？那么，最牵动市场神经的问题是：白银这一波到底还能涨多久？市场上分析师的普遍观点似乎是，短期小幅看多，但放长远看，这轮涨势就可能只是暂时的了。就在撰写文章当口，现货白银价格已于周一4：10左右短暂来到30美元/盎司以上。值得注意的是，这一点位已突破高盛此前所估30美元的12个月目标价。澳洲交易商Guardian Vaults分析师John Feeney表示，Reddit论坛上的联合行动确实可以大幅影响个别股票的价格，但如果把白银和个人公司的市值相比较，不认为他们有能力显著推动白银进入逼空状态。白银的市值非常大，而论坛上的人想要的是快速上涨，因此个人不会看涨太多。有分析师指出，最重要的一点是，贵金属市场与股票市场存在根本差异，尝试挤爆白银空头很可能波及外汇市场，一旦如此，各国央行绝对会出手干预。嘉盛集团Joe Perry表示：贵金属通常扮演对冲通胀的角色，在美元时常走弱的背景下，贵金属走高。白银ETF和现货白银/美元都不是股票，如果人们尝试挤爆白银空头，可能影响美元与全球交易量最大的市场，即外汇市场，这是贵金属与股票之间的主要差别。作为贵金属的白银如果遭到针对性的空头回补，可能影响美元的走势。但如果确有其事，不要以为各国央行会袖手旁观。美元下跌的原因可能很多，但针对贵金属的“游戏”不会是其中之一。但也有机构持不同观点。作为一种避险资产，也是一种用于生产太阳能电池板等产品的工业金属，不少机构近期原本就强烈看好白银。Metals Focus分析师Philip Newman就曾表示，2021年或将看到黄金和钯金的价格再创新高，但白银的升幅将是最大的。从技术面看，市场分析师Jesse Colombo周日在福布斯网站发文称，如果白银能够在强劲的交易量下向上突破30美元，则后续看涨的可能性将大幅增加，下一个目标价位将是35美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SImain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}