To The Moon

Overnight, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as anticipated, while announcing significant policy adjustments. According to the FOMC statement, beginning April 1st, the Fed will slow its balance sheet reduction pace, decreasing Treasury securities reduction limits from $25 billion/month to $5 billion/month, while maintaining the MBS reduction cap at $35 billion/month. The committee noted increased economic uncertainty but still forecasts two interest rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points altogether.Benchmark Rate Unchanged, Balance Sheet Reduction Slowed, Two Rate Cuts - All Within ExpectationsFed Chairman Powell broke new ground in the press conference by addressing tariffs for the first time, acknowledging that Trump's policies are impacting the economy. He emphasized

Germany Announces Historic Fiscal Stimulus PlanGermany dropped a bombshell today as the incoming German government announced an unprecedented fiscal stimulus plan. This includes establishing a €500 billion special infrastructure fund, providing "unlimited" support for defense spending, and permitting local governments to increase borrowing. Altogether, the total scale of this plan could exceed €1 trillion.The magnitude of Germany's fiscal stimulus plan is on par with the historic impact of the reunification of East and West Germany over 35 years ago. In the short term, this initiative aims to "provide a safety net" to prevent further economic deterioration. From a mid-term perspective, the plan is expected to bring a "paradigm shift" to Germany's economic growth model. With increased defen

On Thursday, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis released revised data for the fourth quarter, indicating that the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of real GDP was 2.3%, unchanged from the initial estimate. While this represents a slowdown compared to previous quarters, it underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy.图片Meanwhile, inflation data presents a less optimistic picture. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—showed an annualized growth rate of 2.7% for the fourth quarter, revised upward from the previously reported 2.5%.图片Durable Goods Orders Surge in JanuaryIn addition, stronger-than-expected growth in the transportation sector propelled a sharp incre

The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, released overnight, provide key insights into the central bank's current policy directions. During the January 28–29 meeting, the Fed opted to maintain its interest rates, a decision aligned with market expectations. The minutes highlight three significant signals:1. Slowing Balance Sheet ReductionFederal Reserve officials discussed the possibility of slowing or pausing the reduction of its nearly $6.8 trillion asset portfolio. This discussion strongly suggests that such measures are likely to be implemented in the near future. The primary reason for this consideration is the potential complications arising from the U.S. federal debt ceiling issue in the coming months, which could cause significant fluctuations in the Fed's reserve balances.2. No

With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December last year and the landing of the dot plot, a recent Goldman Sachs report pointed out that gold prices are no longer expected to hit US $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, but need toArrival postponed until mid-2026,In other words, the newly revised view is about half a year later than the original judgment.In 2024, the price of gold will soar by 27.6%, outperforming most major asset classes except the pie and natural gas accident. Statistics in this area, I mentioned in the previous article, the market generally believes that this wave of rise in gold prices is affected by the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, increased demand for safe havens, and continued gold purchases by global central banks.However, since the be

After Christmas, the the US Dollar Index continued to fluctuate near the high of 108.25. The previous high point appeared at the high of 108.54 on December 20. It was also the high point pushed up by the strong market buying after the Federal Reserve's hawkish interest rate cut last week.Morgan Stanley pointed out in a latest report that the U.S. fiscal deficit is expected to decrease next year, while the German fiscal deficit will increase, which may lead to the convergence of interest rates between the United States and Europe.This triggered a sharp depreciation of the US dollar.PicturesBescent, the nominated next U.S. Treasury Secretary, has previously said that the goal of reducing the deficit to 3% of GDP will be a priority. Morgan Stanley said in the report that this commitment is ge

I don't think it is necessary to emphasize the prospect of the medium-term trend of the market. From the short-term trend outlook, I mean the period from mid-December to the end of the month before New Year's Day. Whether there is still a red envelope market in the market, whether the level is large or not, the main external factor isTonight's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.It's quite simple,If tonight's Fed interest rate meeting is the result of a dovish interest rate cut, then we will usher in a big red envelope market; If tonight's Fed interest rate meeting is the result of hawkish interest rate cuts, then we will have a market, but it is expected to be structural, just like the shocks you saw in the past November-December.So, how do you determine whether it is a pigeon or an eag

The decline in gold prices overnight was indeed a bit sharp:PicturesYesterday, the big K line of gold fell by 3.36%, equivalent to 91.15 US dollars, and the amplitude ranged from the highest 2721 to 2615. Both the amplitude and the decline have exceeded 1106, which is the big K line after the results of the US presidential election in November. There It fell 3.10% to 85.05 US dollars.The short-term decline of gold is mainly related to the following reasons:First, it is related to the cooling of geopolitical tensions.Last week, Russia and Ukraine launched missiles at each other, which triggered a rise in risk aversion. However, the situation in the region did not escalate further over the weekend. In addition, the market has reported this week that Israel may reach a ceasefire agreement wit

Today, we are specially writing an article for Baiyin. In fact, our domestic stocks are the popular varieties, gold belongs to the niche, and silver belongs to the niche within the niche, so you have been watching me write articles, talking more about gold than silver.But the protagonist of today's article is silver.PicturesLet's look at the first picture first, this is an overlay chart of the trend of gold and silver over the past two decades. The red line is the price of gold and the yellow line is the price of silver.Judging from the historical limit values in the past few periods, the limit value and volatility of silver should be greater than those of gold, especially in the final peak acceleration stage.Therefore, when the price of gold broke through $2,700/oz, hitting a record high

Gold prices have reached record highs recently, and some market participants believe that,A tactical pullback may be on the horizon and see it as an opportunity to add positions.However, UBS released a report saying that although the overall bullish outlook for gold is solid, the market may need to catch its breath.UBS analyst JoniTeves pointed out in the report that the consolidation period at this time is beneficial to the market, especially if it allows some weak bulls to exit the market and allows long-term investors to enter the market at a better level.Generally speaking, September is a relatively low season for gold prices.Because during this month, the dollar tends to perform strongly, yields rise, and the stock market performs weakly.However, this year's situation is different. Th