To The Moon

Last week, silver surged to a new high even as gold’s performance lagged significantly, far exceeding my earlier expectations. In hindsight, this trading and manipulation pattern bears resemblance to that of Ethereum/Bitcoin this year: the larger-cap asset first posts consecutive new highs, followed by a rapid rally in the smaller-cap one to hit an all-time peak. While such fundamentals-defying gains have proven short-lived in the crypto market, one should not go against the prevailing trend.Silver recorded a weekly gain of over 10% last week, and the emergence of a new high means there are no technical reference points to rely on. As long as it trades above the 54.4 level, the market is clearly dominated by bulls. Since its 2022 low around 17.4, silver has seen a rally of more than 300% i

The rebound in the crypto market the weekend before last ultimately proved to be nothing more than a flash in the pan. As both Bitcoin and Ethereum have gone on to set new recent lows, the overall rhythm of the market has started to clearly signal the arrival of a new bear market in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, last week’s sharp pullback in silver after making a midweek high continued the sequential logic of the “three-horse carriage”: after the bull trap in precious metals, U.S. equities have become the only fortress that has not yet been breached by the bears. With a large batch of economic data due this week, plus important individual earnings reports, will this be the final straw that breaks the camel’s back?​Among the three drivers of crypto, precious metals, and U.S. equities, the cl

Cryptocurrencies show signs of a rebound, and a rally is likely this week. Although last week’s widely watched U.S. government shutdown issue remained unresolved, the prevailing view is that the two parties will reach a compromise this week as time goes on. With newsflow relatively muted over the weekend, the crypto market’s unusual rebound seems to be front‑running that possibility. As a key leading indicator, once it stabilizes, overall market risk appetite is expected to improve to some extent in the near term.​Ether briefly tested lows near 3,000 dollars last week, but short‑term technical demand absorption still looks fairly solid. After reclaiming 3,355, the need for continued correction and consolidation remains evident. Notably, on the weekly timeframe, prior episodes featuring lon

Despite the ongoing issue of a potential U.S. government shutdown, the short-term major risk factors have been mitigated following statements by the Chinese and American leaders at the APEC summit. This development suggests that after a significant market pullback, weaker asset classes like gold and silver have the potential to enter a phase of range-bound oscillation. Meanwhile, unless a black swan event occurs, the slow bull market in U.S. stocks driven by Nvidia is likely to continue through the end of this year and into early next year.Over the past month, the relative strength comparison among the market’s "three horses" — U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin (BTC) — has been quite clear. U.S. stocks have remained the last fortress of value, while BTC has served as a leading indicator. As n

Over the weekend, the market received favorable news: China and the United States reached a basic consensus on addressing each other's concerns during their economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur. This development led to varying degrees of gains and rebounds across most risk assets over the weekend. Given the previous experience of abrupt policy reversals and rhetoric from Trump, this outcome was not entirely unexpected. However, many assets had already sustained considerable damage from prior declines, and whether they can follow the U.S. stock market back to a gradual bull trend remains to be seen. In this context, the performance of the Japanese yen offers valuable reference points.Since the end of 2024, the yen has been oscillating near its lows without a definitive breakthro

Following a single-day sharp reversal and plunge in silver prices, the market may be entering a new downward phase. Both gold and silver, which had been rising continuously, exhibited a bearish engulfing pattern last Friday, with silver futures plunging nearly 6%. This may indicate that relatively strong assets like silver could soon face a catch-down correction along with the cryptocurrency market. Further deterioration in news flow could trigger a sustained downward trend.Silver has consistently been a key asset we previously recommended for attention. Unlike gold, silver does not possess a so-called safe-haven property. Historically, silver plays the role of a late-cycle catching-up asset. Once this last-to-ignite asset completes its upward movement, it often signals a broader trend cha

The president who most enjoys disrupting markets, Trump, has made a move again this past weekend. As the saying goes, his actions were fierce and fast, and he seems to read the market’s rise and fall like a true master. After stirring turmoil—especially in the cryptocurrency space—with his provocative tweets, he then reassured the market by saying "it’s nothing," which helped trigger a rebound. After several rounds of toying with market sentiment, the question now is: can this tactic still work this time?We have previously emphasized two main factors likely to influence the market: one is Trump’s own health condition and the internal uncertainties it brings to the US; the other is the evolving relationship between China and the US. Of course, the trigger for the China-US relationship chang

Over the National Day holiday week, markets shifted again: silver, the core sentiment gauge, led gold to fresh highs, and Bitcoin reclaimed the top spot in crypto with a new all-time high. The market is effectively immune to anything that looks negative, so fighting the prevailing mania is inadvisable until it clearly fades. That said, once leading indicators flash a definitive reversal, it could still mark a major inflection worth close attention.Among assets, silver remains the representative bellwether tracked over the past month. Silver futures set a new high this week, but with two trading days left, the chart has printed a high-level doji. While not a definitive top, it cannot be dismissed outright. Silver making highs has often coincided with rapid risk-off turns across risk assets,

In the past two weeks, Ethereum has experienced a significant pullback. Serving as a crucial reference and leading indicator for the current market cycle, Ethereum (ETH) is the leader of the cryptocurrency market and also an important benchmark for the U.S. stock market. Earlier this year, Bitcoin played a similar role. There is reasonable suspicion that risk assets may be facing a round of adjustment.Ethereum futures have fallen below the previous weekly low level for the first time since May this year. Historically, such breaches at high levels tend to lead to sustained downward trends. Although Bitcoin has not yet experienced a similar breach (it has not fallen below its August low), Bitcoin in recent months has primarily acted as a passive follower rather than a leading force; therefor

Last week’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision went as expected, with no surprises, following the usual course. This resulted in some assets experiencing opposite swings after initial reactions to the news. The US dollar index briefly hit a recent low but then stabilized and rebounded at a key long-term trendline. If this rebound can hold through the rest of the month, the dollar is likely to see a phase of upward repair rally, though the overall large range is unlikely to be broken.The nominal interest rate cut is theoretically bearish for the dollar, but its actual impact has been limited. On one hand, most other central banks are also in the process of easing, so there is no real interest rate gap expectation. On the other, the market had already priced in the Fed’s actions well in