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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-15
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Heavy interpretation! Causes and Antidotes of Global Supply Chain Dilemma
大多数消费者目前似乎还没有强烈感受到，全球几乎所有企业正在遭受的巨大挑战——全球供应链产生严重瓶颈所带来的紧张短缺、部分断裂的问题。这个问题不仅由于新冠疫情持续演变，也因过去商业模式所遗留下来的内在缺
Heavy interpretation! Causes and Antidotes of Global Supply Chain Dilemma
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-13
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Key variables in overseas markets in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal
疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复，同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。
Key variables in overseas markets in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal
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小涩涩墩
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2021-09-13
…
Key variables in overseas markets in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal
疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复，同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。
Key variables in overseas markets in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-12
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What are the most popular funds among Christians?
今天周末，Z哥还是照例给大家分享一些关于基金投资方面的思考。很多人都问Z哥，现在到底可以买哪些基金？通过这个数据，我们大概可以了解最受基民喜爱的基金到底是哪些？基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的“买者自负”原则，在投资者做出投资决策后，基金运营状况、基金份额上市交易价格波动与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资者自行负责。
What are the most popular funds among Christians?
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-12
…
Eight major fund managers: In the last four months of this year, can Hong Kong stocks "turn over"?
市场何时能够企稳，哪些板块更具投资价值？后市又会面临哪些风险？
Eight major fund managers: In the last four months of this year, can Hong Kong stocks "turn over"?
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-10
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-09
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Crude under pullback pressure as Fed slows Taper pace
随着消息面利好逐步兑现，油价进一步上行驱动不足。
Crude under pullback pressure as Fed slows Taper pace
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-07
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Cold thinking about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy: expectation guidance or discretionary decision
转眼美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话已过一周，会议上整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调，并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场
Cold thinking about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy: expectation guidance or discretionary decision
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-07
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小涩涩墩
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2021-09-07
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Causes and Antidotes of Global Supply Chain Dilemma","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148030034","media":"中欧商业评论","summary":"大多数消费者目前似乎还没有强烈感受到，全球几乎所有企业正在遭受的巨大挑战——全球供应链产生严重瓶颈所带来的紧张短缺、部分断裂的问题。这个问题不仅由于新冠疫情持续演变，也因过去商业模式所遗留下来的内在缺","content":"<p>At present, most consumers don't seem to feel strongly the huge challenge that almost all enterprises around the world are suffering from-the problem of tight shortages and partial disruptions caused by serious bottlenecks in global supply chains. This problem is caused not only by the continuous evolution of COVID-19 pandemic, but also by the inherent defects left over by past business models and new geopolitical conflicts. For example, in the face of the continued shortage of semiconductor chips, Toyota announced this month that it would cut its global automobile production by 40%. Despite strong demand for products, metal components, plastics, and other raw materials are not available at factories around the world. Construction companies are paying more for paint, wood and hardware, but have to wait weeks or even months to receive it... What's even more worrying is that prices are starting to rise due to supply chain bottlenecks, which are likely to exacerbate global currency Inflation caused by overissuance. Faced with severe challenges, China-Europe Business Review specially invited two professors, Li Ping and Shi Yongjiang, to explain the underlying causes of serious bottlenecks in the global supply chain and put forward feasible solutions to these problems. Delays, product shortages and rising costs have continued to plague businesses large and small and their users in recent months.</p><p>Managers and consumers have also begun to face an experience that was once rare in modern society: on the one hand, a large number of orders poured in, resulting in an instantaneous shortage of capacity and then panic and anxiety; On the other hand, due to the inability to coordinate actions between the upstream, midstream and downstream of the supply chain, upstream raw materials are out of stock, midstream work-in-progress is backlogged, and downstream finished products cannot be offshore due to lack of transportation capacity.</p><p>Now, we can't help but ask, what is the reason for the current supply chain bottleneck?</p><p><b>Source of bottleneck</b></p><p><i>The short-term strong rebound in market demand is one of the most direct reasons for the tight global supply chain.</i></p><p>There is persistent unusual uncertainty in the prospects for global economic recovery, and \"supply chain bottlenecks\" are precisely the core factor of this uncertainty.</p><p>If the shortage persists into next year, it is likely to drive up the prices of a range of commodities. At present, the central banks of all countries are concerned about the potential inflation problem, and no one can fully confidently answer one of them. Shortages and delays only appear briefly with the economic recovery? Or will it become a serious hidden danger that lasts for a long time?</p><p>On the surface, the recent strong rebound in market demand is one of the most direct factors or reasons leading to the tension of global supply chains. This problem largely reflects the abnormal changes in market demand.</p><p>Consumers in the United States and other rich countries are confined to their homes by COVID-19 pandemic, which drives them to buy products such as game consoles, treadmills and kitchen supplies for their homes, thus leading to insufficient supply of related products.</p><p>In addition, due to COVID-19 pandemic, people can't travel on vacation, so the savings in this area are diverted to other products, which also leads to insufficient supply of related products.</p><p>Thirdly, COVID-19 pandemic subsidies issued by governments such as the United States have increased consumers' purchasing power and willingness at the same time, further increasing the degree of insufficient supply.</p><p>During the epidemic, affected by various blockade measures, the global supply chain will inevitably be under pressure. In addition to China, Southeast Asia is an important link in the global supply chain. Due to the recent rebound of the epidemic, economic production activities have been severely hindered, among which Vietnam, Malaysia and other countries are the most serious. Almost all Vietnam is in a state of social isolation, and its manufacturing industry is facing three major crises: worker loss, order loss, and capital loss.</p><p>Of course, in addition to the epidemic, extreme weather and natural disasters will also have a negative impact on the supply chain. However, this is only an external problem caused by natural disasters, and the most serious problem is the supply itself.</p><p>Most companies underestimate the recent strong rebound in market demand and have not booked enough spare parts and raw materials in advance, so they cannot increase supply and output in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaac9405b608d58c20a650004d1a9c25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, all automobile companies in the world thought that this COVID-19 pandemic would seriously reduce and delay the market's purchase of automobiles, so they greatly reduced the purchase orders of spare parts. However, they never expected that the market demand would rebound strongly in a short period of time, resulting in the current There is a serious shortage of spare parts and cannot meet the market demand. This belongs to the judgment error of enterprise managers and human error.</p><p>In the spring of 2020, the automobile industry cut production significantly, and when the Chinese market showed an amazing recovery momentum, an executive of a large Chinese automobile company said that the automobile industry \"only ordered semiconductors and other components for three months, and did not draw up an optimistic production plan.\"</p><p>At the same time, the market demand in different industries rebounded almost simultaneously, which also caught most enterprises off guard. The severe global shortage of semiconductor chips is closely related to this.</p><p>Because the automotive industry has not arranged orders in advance, it is currently difficult to obtain the chips it needs, because most of the limited chip production capacity has shifted to the more profitable electronics industry. An unexpected increase in TV orders in Canada or Japan has exacerbated the chip shortage, forcing automakers to slow down production from South Korea to Germany to Brazil.</p><p>What has a far-reaching impact is the political factors beyond the control of enterprises. An important start to the global semiconductor shortage is the U.S. government's sanctions on mainland Chinese companies. OEM companies such as SMIC (SMIC) have become targets of sanctions, and orders have concentrated on Taiwanese companies centered on the world's largest Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).</p><p>Qualcomm of the United States took quick action and successively visited Taiwanese semiconductor companies such as TSMC and United China Electronics (UMC), placing a large number of orders to replace SMIC. In addition, as the U.S. government tightened sanctions on Huawei, Taiwanese companies such as TSMC have entered a rare busy period since July, because Huawei placed an unusually large number of orders in advance and rushed to stock up on goods before the new sanctions were launched in September. Required chips.</p><p><b>Difficulties of shipping</b></p><p><i>Serious bottlenecks in transportation have led to difficulty in finding transportation capacity, skyrocketing freight rates and delivery delays.</i></p><p>What makes the above difficulties worse are the huge challenges in the shipping field.</p><p>Specifically, starting in March this year, as global shipping costs soared, many commodities became scarce, resulting in a large number of containers overwhelming the shipping industry. First, a giant cargo ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking hundreds of cargo ships, causing a week's interruption to traffic on an important waterway connecting Europe and Asia. The negative impact of the Suez Canal, which is the gateway for about 12% of world trade, lasted for many months, adding to the disruption of the maritime industry.</p><p>Later, a series of temporary closures of Chinese ports related to COVID-19 pandemic (including Shenzhen, Yantai, Ningbo, etc.) aggravated this confusion. A large number of products need to be shipped from Chinese ports to various countries around the world. The closure of these ports has become a snowball event that ripples across the world, even threatening the supply of goods for Black Friday promotions after Thanksgiving in American stores.</p><p>Coupled with the surge in global consumer demand, the order volume of the shipping industry continues to increase. The arrival volume at U.S. ports continues to hit records, but due to the lack of workers, containers, and ships, port congestion has occurred, resulting in major delays in logistics. For example, because containers shipped to Los Angeles can't be unloaded, soybeans in Iowa have no containers to ship, and buyers in Indonesia can only wait, thus triggering a shortage of animal feed in Southeast Asia.</p><p>Cheap and reliable shipping has long been an important part of international trade, allowing manufacturers to shift production around the world in search of low-wage labor and cheap raw materials. But since COVID-19 pandemic, the cost of shipping goods from Asia to the United States has risen tenfold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6889cf56496f4337b656dcfd7a8db85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the epidemic, it cost US $6,000-7,000 to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the Midwest of the United States, but the freight cost of the next batch of goods scheduled to leave China in mid-September is already at least US $26,000; Coupled with the difficulties of rail and trucking in the United States, freight rates are likely to go up to $35,000.</p><p>Typically, the peak demand for trans-Pacific freight begins in late summer and ends in winter, that is, after the cargo is ready during the year-end holidays. But last winter, the peak of freight demand never ended, and now it has converged with the shopping surge during this year's holiday season, exacerbating the pressure on factories, warehouses, cargo ships and trucks.</p><p>Nowadays, the current situation in China has aggravated people's worries about the future prospects. Many enterprises face abnormal phenomena that have not been encountered in decades. On the one hand, the order production is too busy; on the other hand, the product inventory is seriously overstocked and cannot be shipped. This is because there are serious bottlenecks in transportation, hard to find transportation capacity, skyrocketing freight rates, and delivery delays.</p><p>What is even more worrying is that due to supply chain bottlenecks, prices have begun to rise, which is likely to aggravate inflation caused by global currency overissuance. This is the consequence that everyone is most worried about and least wants to see.</p><p><b>Deep difficulties</b></p><p><i>Global companies will face profound challenges for a long time and need to restructure the global supply chain of their own businesses.</i></p><p>Influenced by the success of Toyota's production model, many companies have adopted lean production mode and Just in Time/JIT mode to minimize inventory and other waste. This is very effective in cutting costs and increasing profits, but it also leaves little room for correcting errors.</p><p>Relevant studies found that from 1981 to 2000, American companies reduced their inventories by an average of 2% every year, and the saved costs were used to buy back listed stocks, further pushing up the stock market price. If the enterprise is in a relatively stable situation, such as the long-term peaceful development stage after World War II, Toyota's production model is extremely effective.</p><p>Once the situation becomes highly chaotic, especially in the VUCA + era (variability, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity and novelty), the inherent flaws of Toyota's production model will be increasingly exposed. Once there is a problem in any part of the supply chain system, the whole system will have bottlenecks and even breaks to varying degrees.</p><p>In other words, because Toyota's production model is built on the underlying logic of tight coupling in the field of resource management, this model seriously lacks resilience and lacks the ability to respond timely and rebound quickly after encountering sudden crises. Coupling can only play a high-efficiency role in high-latitude scenarios.</p><p>But scene changes, especially sudden changes, turn this coupling into a shackle, hindering the development of adaptability. This deep-seated problem should be raised to the height of paradigm transformation (i.e. VUCA + paradigm), paid enough attention to, and effectively solved as soon as possible. This is the first deep reason for the current supply chain bottleneck.</p><p>The second deep reason is more profound, that is, the unsustainable development of the previous globalization paradigm itself. The core connotation of this problem is that global production and supply are too concentrated in a few countries, or even only one country (such as China becoming the so-called \"world factory\"), just for the largest market and the lowest labor cost.</p><p>The world has learned a painful lesson: the otherwise relatively independent and diverse economies thousands of miles apart are so tied together that delays and shortages in any place will spread to almost everywhere else in the world, and no one is spared. This COVID-19 pandemic most vividly reflects the drawbacks of this economic development paradigm, which have been deliberately ignored or even maliciously covered up by people for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db6eab0fab28134ec77b33b485e11a4c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In other words, out of greedy nature, short-term capital, under the banner that globalization is beneficial to people all over the world, uses the business model that is most beneficial to the capital, pursues the maximization of a single financial return, deliberately ignores or even maliciously covers up the potential risks and harms caused by this paradigm to society, especially for the long-term interests of other stakeholders.</p><p>The global layout of the supply chain objectively leads to the geographical long distance between production supporting facilities and retail consumption, multiple links of logistics and distribution, and the increase of operational complexity. The direct consequence is the increase of operational risks and difficulty in controlling them. At present, the bottleneck of shipping also vividly reflects what is wrong with the global economic development paradigm.</p><p>A UK company that makes sealing machines for packaged food is struggling because it can't secure the supply of the components it needs. The company's suppliers in Japan could deliver key equipment in four to six weeks, but now it takes half a year. And that Japanese supplier has been trying to ensure the electronic components it needs, most of which are produced in Asia and cannot be replaced elsewhere. Coupled with automakers' desperate desire to get chips, it makes it harder for companies in other industries to get parts that are already in severe shortage. This is the embodiment of close coupling in the field of geographical layout, and it is the second deep reason.</p><p>The third deep-seated reason is related to the rise of China after globalization. After the end of the Cold War, Fukuyama and others believed that history had come to an end, and the market economy and * 's * would become a unified template for future development. However, no one expected that since China joined the WTO, it not only became even more powerful, but also began to quietly create its own rules of the game, which challenged the existing global economic system.</p><p>This eventually triggered a fierce Sino-US trade war and a series of subsequent geopolitically oriented side-selection, which caused China and western developed countries to part ways in terms of economy and political system. Under this basic pattern, no matter Chinese multinational companies or local companies, or multinational companies in other countries, they are all facing an unprecedented profound challenge, that is, how to reconstruct the global supply chain of their own businesses.</p><p><b>The situation of reconstruction</b></p><p><i>The long-term response strategy of supply chain bottlenecks should take organizational resilience as its underlying logic.</i></p><p>We believe that the short-term response strategy to supply chain bottlenecks is based on overcoming the immediate difficulties. From the perspective of how Chinese enterprises should respond, we put forward some alternative strategies.</p><p><ul><li>Chinese enterprises that encounter delivery delays should strive to renegotiate new contracts with the other party, and urge the other party to understand the difficulties caused by special situations, especially those caused by force majeure conditions (rather than their own human errors), and minimize compensation for losses.</p><p></li><li>Chinese enterprises need to pay special attention to cash flow, ensure that they have basically sufficient liquidity, and avoid the break of the capital chain, so as to successfully tide over the difficulties.</p><p></li><li>Chinese enterprises can make full use of the government's current policy of supporting \"specialized, special and new little giant\" enterprises, strengthen the necessary research and development to break through technical bottlenecks, strive to build themselves, and become future invisible (single/refined) champions. We believe that this is the most significant national policy at present and for a long time to come, and we hope to attract the attention of more Chinese enterprises.</p><p></li></ul>On the other hand, we advocate that the long-term response strategy to supply chain bottlenecks should take organizational resilience as its underlying logic, so as to overcome various problems caused by the underlying reasons mentioned above, including real-time production models, excessive geographical concentration, and serious conflict between China and the United States.</p><p>The definition of resilience varies in different fields, but it is basically the same. The core essence of toughness is the ability to rebound: the higher the toughness, the greater the potential to continue functioning under deformation pressure. However, in the field of management, the concept of resilience has been extended and developed, mainly in terms of surpassing the ability to rebound.</p><p>We believe that organizational resilience mainly includes two dimensions. The first dimension is that after experiencing an adversity crisis situation, a certain enterprise can recover and survive faster and more effectively than other enterprises in the industry.</p><p>\"The wildfire can't burn out, and the spring breeze blows again\". This is generally consistent with the concept of resilience in the engineering field, and its main function is to deal with the negative threats brought by adversity crises.</p><p>The second dimension is that after experiencing the blow of the adversity crisis situation, a certain enterprise can surpass the rebound and survive faster and more effectively than other enterprises in the industry, so as to achieve improvement, overtaking and more vitality, and be higher than before the adversity crisis situation. by going up one flight of stairs. This is like \"anti-fragility\" or \"anti-fragility\" that gets stronger and stronger with setbacks.</p><p>That's why adversity can hone perseverance and promote the faster maturity of individuals and organizations. As the saying goes, \"Since ancient times, heroes have suffered many hardships, and dandies have been less wei men\". The Monkey King went through hardships in Taishang Laojun's alchemy furnace, and refined his \"sharp eyes\", which is an example of improvement and overtaking.</p><p>The second dimension of organizational resilience is obviously different from the concept of resilience in the engineering field, so it is its important extension and development. Its main function is to cope with the positive opportunities brought by adversity crises.</p><p>In particular, many people compare resilience with resistance or robustness against blows and confuse it. However, there is an essential difference between resilience and resistance: the latter will not be damaged by adversity and crisis situations, and certainly does not need to rebound or overtake, while the former must be severely damaged after being hit, but can recover and rebound or even improve overtaking.</p><p>An image metaphor is the rubber band. Its elasticity reflects the restoring force and forward momentum of toughness, but it is not absorbency or tolerance, nor is it general adaptability.</p><p>Therefore, \"recovery rebound\" and \"improvement overtaking\" are the two core intrinsic characteristics of resilience. The resistance is similar to the \"strong grass\" in the \"strong wind knows the strong grass\" mentioned in \"Dongguan Han Ji Wang Ba Biography\".</p><p>Different from this, the key to toughness lies not in resistance, but in the ability to rebound and overtake. As the famous saying in Mencius Telling the World says, \"Therefore, heaven will give a great responsibility to Sri Lankan people, so they must first suffer their minds, work their muscles and bones, starve their skin, empty their bodies, and confuse their actions. Therefore, they are tempted to be patient, and they can't benefit them.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6152a9c451daa7f57cffad7c12a7c74a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In short, organizational resilience is the core capability of enterprises to cope with adversity crises in today's VUCA + era, including two dimensions: rebound recovery and overtaking improvement. We believe that organizational resilience is mainly reflected in several aspects:</p><p><ul><li>The idea of zero inventory advocated by lean mode and real-time mode should be turned into moderate inventory, and different inventory degrees should be arranged according to different situations. At the weakest bottleneck of the supply chain, more inventory and moderate slack of other resources are required, while in other places, inventory and other redundant resources can be minimized.</p><p></li><li>It is necessary to moderately disperse the geographical layout of suppliers, and not rely too much on the only supplier in one place to avoid risks. Folk experience is true, you should not put all your eggs in one basket.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Effectively ensure the smooth circulation between domestic and international dual circulation, including dispersing market demand and parts supply among different developed and developing countries.</p><p></li><li>Overseas mergers and acquisitions of hidden champion companies may be the most valuable investment in the long-term, but the merger and acquisition method needs to be flexible, and you can participate in minority investment to strengthen mutual trust between the two parties.</p><p></li><li>It is necessary to strengthen cooperative relations with countries that are relatively neutral in geopolitics, such as Vietnam and certain African countries with conditions.</p><p></li><li>Developed countries whose local manufacturing industries are hollowing out are beginning to realize the long-term significance of the current crisis, and will definitely seek alternative solutions, especially alternative solutions to establish local core supply chains. This is of great significance to the restructuring of existing supply chains around the world. China needs to pay close attention to this and take precautions at the end of the rain.</p><p></li><li>Similarly, China needs to make breakthroughs in certain \"stuck\" areas in order to form a pattern of interdependence and mutual restriction with other competing countries, similar to the containment pattern among nuclear-weapon states.</p><p></li><li>In the face of Sino-US decoupling in some areas, China needs to pay special attention and actively participate in the formulation of global industry standards. In addition, Chinese enterprises need to learn to deal with the future pattern of two competing industry standard systems in important industries around the world.</p><p></li></ul>Faced with the increasingly obvious VUCA + scenario, the market has increasingly higher requirements for supply chain resilience, because any unexpected delays may be amplified to the upstream and downstream of the supply chain of one industry, or several industries.</p><p>We believe that it is necessary to fundamentally change the mainstream management paradigm and business model of enterprises based on short-term financial returns. Without this profound paradigm shift, after the crisis eases, most enterprises will heal their scars and forget their pain, and gradually return to the old path.</p><p>This is a management revolution that requires long-term efforts to rebuild a long-term management paradigm and business model that balances the rights and interests of multiple stakeholders for sustainable development.</p><p>In particular, it should be pointed out that the current emerging \"anti-globalization\" trend is not a complete denial of the previous globalization paradigm, but only a partial correction, that is, from an extremely paranoid globalization paradigm to a future globalization paradigm with long-term sustained and balanced development.</p><p>According to the 2018 report of China's foreign investment, in 2017, foreign-funded enterprises accounted for less than 3% of the total number of enterprises in China, but they created nearly 1/2 of foreign trade, 1/4 of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size, 1/5 of tax revenue, and more than 45 million direct employment (accounting for more than 10% of the domestic urban employment population, excluding indirect employment brought by upstream and downstream related industries).</p><p>Therefore, we need to adhere to the basic national policy of reform and opening up, and ensure the organic balance of internal and external circulation in the \"double circulation\". Similar to the important role of private enterprises in economic development, the unique role of foreign-funded enterprises is also irreplaceable.</p>","source":"lsy1567750882116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Heavy interpretation! Causes and Antidotes of Global Supply Chain Dilemma</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHeavy interpretation! Causes and Antidotes of Global Supply Chain Dilemma\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中欧商业评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-15 14:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At present, most consumers don't seem to feel strongly the huge challenge that almost all enterprises around the world are suffering from-the problem of tight shortages and partial disruptions caused by serious bottlenecks in global supply chains. This problem is caused not only by the continuous evolution of COVID-19 pandemic, but also by the inherent defects left over by past business models and new geopolitical conflicts. For example, in the face of the continued shortage of semiconductor chips, Toyota announced this month that it would cut its global automobile production by 40%. Despite strong demand for products, metal components, plastics, and other raw materials are not available at factories around the world. Construction companies are paying more for paint, wood and hardware, but have to wait weeks or even months to receive it... What's even more worrying is that prices are starting to rise due to supply chain bottlenecks, which are likely to exacerbate global currency Inflation caused by overissuance. Faced with severe challenges, China-Europe Business Review specially invited two professors, Li Ping and Shi Yongjiang, to explain the underlying causes of serious bottlenecks in the global supply chain and put forward feasible solutions to these problems. Delays, product shortages and rising costs have continued to plague businesses large and small and their users in recent months.</p><p>Managers and consumers have also begun to face an experience that was once rare in modern society: on the one hand, a large number of orders poured in, resulting in an instantaneous shortage of capacity and then panic and anxiety; On the other hand, due to the inability to coordinate actions between the upstream, midstream and downstream of the supply chain, upstream raw materials are out of stock, midstream work-in-progress is backlogged, and downstream finished products cannot be offshore due to lack of transportation capacity.</p><p>Now, we can't help but ask, what is the reason for the current supply chain bottleneck?</p><p><b>Source of bottleneck</b></p><p><i>The short-term strong rebound in market demand is one of the most direct reasons for the tight global supply chain.</i></p><p>There is persistent unusual uncertainty in the prospects for global economic recovery, and \"supply chain bottlenecks\" are precisely the core factor of this uncertainty.</p><p>If the shortage persists into next year, it is likely to drive up the prices of a range of commodities. At present, the central banks of all countries are concerned about the potential inflation problem, and no one can fully confidently answer one of them. Shortages and delays only appear briefly with the economic recovery? Or will it become a serious hidden danger that lasts for a long time?</p><p>On the surface, the recent strong rebound in market demand is one of the most direct factors or reasons leading to the tension of global supply chains. This problem largely reflects the abnormal changes in market demand.</p><p>Consumers in the United States and other rich countries are confined to their homes by COVID-19 pandemic, which drives them to buy products such as game consoles, treadmills and kitchen supplies for their homes, thus leading to insufficient supply of related products.</p><p>In addition, due to COVID-19 pandemic, people can't travel on vacation, so the savings in this area are diverted to other products, which also leads to insufficient supply of related products.</p><p>Thirdly, COVID-19 pandemic subsidies issued by governments such as the United States have increased consumers' purchasing power and willingness at the same time, further increasing the degree of insufficient supply.</p><p>During the epidemic, affected by various blockade measures, the global supply chain will inevitably be under pressure. In addition to China, Southeast Asia is an important link in the global supply chain. Due to the recent rebound of the epidemic, economic production activities have been severely hindered, among which Vietnam, Malaysia and other countries are the most serious. Almost all Vietnam is in a state of social isolation, and its manufacturing industry is facing three major crises: worker loss, order loss, and capital loss.</p><p>Of course, in addition to the epidemic, extreme weather and natural disasters will also have a negative impact on the supply chain. However, this is only an external problem caused by natural disasters, and the most serious problem is the supply itself.</p><p>Most companies underestimate the recent strong rebound in market demand and have not booked enough spare parts and raw materials in advance, so they cannot increase supply and output in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaac9405b608d58c20a650004d1a9c25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, all automobile companies in the world thought that this COVID-19 pandemic would seriously reduce and delay the market's purchase of automobiles, so they greatly reduced the purchase orders of spare parts. However, they never expected that the market demand would rebound strongly in a short period of time, resulting in the current There is a serious shortage of spare parts and cannot meet the market demand. This belongs to the judgment error of enterprise managers and human error.</p><p>In the spring of 2020, the automobile industry cut production significantly, and when the Chinese market showed an amazing recovery momentum, an executive of a large Chinese automobile company said that the automobile industry \"only ordered semiconductors and other components for three months, and did not draw up an optimistic production plan.\"</p><p>At the same time, the market demand in different industries rebounded almost simultaneously, which also caught most enterprises off guard. The severe global shortage of semiconductor chips is closely related to this.</p><p>Because the automotive industry has not arranged orders in advance, it is currently difficult to obtain the chips it needs, because most of the limited chip production capacity has shifted to the more profitable electronics industry. An unexpected increase in TV orders in Canada or Japan has exacerbated the chip shortage, forcing automakers to slow down production from South Korea to Germany to Brazil.</p><p>What has a far-reaching impact is the political factors beyond the control of enterprises. An important start to the global semiconductor shortage is the U.S. government's sanctions on mainland Chinese companies. OEM companies such as SMIC (SMIC) have become targets of sanctions, and orders have concentrated on Taiwanese companies centered on the world's largest Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC).</p><p>Qualcomm of the United States took quick action and successively visited Taiwanese semiconductor companies such as TSMC and United China Electronics (UMC), placing a large number of orders to replace SMIC. In addition, as the U.S. government tightened sanctions on Huawei, Taiwanese companies such as TSMC have entered a rare busy period since July, because Huawei placed an unusually large number of orders in advance and rushed to stock up on goods before the new sanctions were launched in September. Required chips.</p><p><b>Difficulties of shipping</b></p><p><i>Serious bottlenecks in transportation have led to difficulty in finding transportation capacity, skyrocketing freight rates and delivery delays.</i></p><p>What makes the above difficulties worse are the huge challenges in the shipping field.</p><p>Specifically, starting in March this year, as global shipping costs soared, many commodities became scarce, resulting in a large number of containers overwhelming the shipping industry. First, a giant cargo ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking hundreds of cargo ships, causing a week's interruption to traffic on an important waterway connecting Europe and Asia. The negative impact of the Suez Canal, which is the gateway for about 12% of world trade, lasted for many months, adding to the disruption of the maritime industry.</p><p>Later, a series of temporary closures of Chinese ports related to COVID-19 pandemic (including Shenzhen, Yantai, Ningbo, etc.) aggravated this confusion. A large number of products need to be shipped from Chinese ports to various countries around the world. The closure of these ports has become a snowball event that ripples across the world, even threatening the supply of goods for Black Friday promotions after Thanksgiving in American stores.</p><p>Coupled with the surge in global consumer demand, the order volume of the shipping industry continues to increase. The arrival volume at U.S. ports continues to hit records, but due to the lack of workers, containers, and ships, port congestion has occurred, resulting in major delays in logistics. For example, because containers shipped to Los Angeles can't be unloaded, soybeans in Iowa have no containers to ship, and buyers in Indonesia can only wait, thus triggering a shortage of animal feed in Southeast Asia.</p><p>Cheap and reliable shipping has long been an important part of international trade, allowing manufacturers to shift production around the world in search of low-wage labor and cheap raw materials. But since COVID-19 pandemic, the cost of shipping goods from Asia to the United States has risen tenfold.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6889cf56496f4337b656dcfd7a8db85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the epidemic, it cost US $6,000-7,000 to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the Midwest of the United States, but the freight cost of the next batch of goods scheduled to leave China in mid-September is already at least US $26,000; Coupled with the difficulties of rail and trucking in the United States, freight rates are likely to go up to $35,000.</p><p>Typically, the peak demand for trans-Pacific freight begins in late summer and ends in winter, that is, after the cargo is ready during the year-end holidays. But last winter, the peak of freight demand never ended, and now it has converged with the shopping surge during this year's holiday season, exacerbating the pressure on factories, warehouses, cargo ships and trucks.</p><p>Nowadays, the current situation in China has aggravated people's worries about the future prospects. Many enterprises face abnormal phenomena that have not been encountered in decades. On the one hand, the order production is too busy; on the other hand, the product inventory is seriously overstocked and cannot be shipped. This is because there are serious bottlenecks in transportation, hard to find transportation capacity, skyrocketing freight rates, and delivery delays.</p><p>What is even more worrying is that due to supply chain bottlenecks, prices have begun to rise, which is likely to aggravate inflation caused by global currency overissuance. This is the consequence that everyone is most worried about and least wants to see.</p><p><b>Deep difficulties</b></p><p><i>Global companies will face profound challenges for a long time and need to restructure the global supply chain of their own businesses.</i></p><p>Influenced by the success of Toyota's production model, many companies have adopted lean production mode and Just in Time/JIT mode to minimize inventory and other waste. This is very effective in cutting costs and increasing profits, but it also leaves little room for correcting errors.</p><p>Relevant studies found that from 1981 to 2000, American companies reduced their inventories by an average of 2% every year, and the saved costs were used to buy back listed stocks, further pushing up the stock market price. If the enterprise is in a relatively stable situation, such as the long-term peaceful development stage after World War II, Toyota's production model is extremely effective.</p><p>Once the situation becomes highly chaotic, especially in the VUCA + era (variability, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity and novelty), the inherent flaws of Toyota's production model will be increasingly exposed. Once there is a problem in any part of the supply chain system, the whole system will have bottlenecks and even breaks to varying degrees.</p><p>In other words, because Toyota's production model is built on the underlying logic of tight coupling in the field of resource management, this model seriously lacks resilience and lacks the ability to respond timely and rebound quickly after encountering sudden crises. Coupling can only play a high-efficiency role in high-latitude scenarios.</p><p>But scene changes, especially sudden changes, turn this coupling into a shackle, hindering the development of adaptability. This deep-seated problem should be raised to the height of paradigm transformation (i.e. VUCA + paradigm), paid enough attention to, and effectively solved as soon as possible. This is the first deep reason for the current supply chain bottleneck.</p><p>The second deep reason is more profound, that is, the unsustainable development of the previous globalization paradigm itself. The core connotation of this problem is that global production and supply are too concentrated in a few countries, or even only one country (such as China becoming the so-called \"world factory\"), just for the largest market and the lowest labor cost.</p><p>The world has learned a painful lesson: the otherwise relatively independent and diverse economies thousands of miles apart are so tied together that delays and shortages in any place will spread to almost everywhere else in the world, and no one is spared. This COVID-19 pandemic most vividly reflects the drawbacks of this economic development paradigm, which have been deliberately ignored or even maliciously covered up by people for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db6eab0fab28134ec77b33b485e11a4c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In other words, out of greedy nature, short-term capital, under the banner that globalization is beneficial to people all over the world, uses the business model that is most beneficial to the capital, pursues the maximization of a single financial return, deliberately ignores or even maliciously covers up the potential risks and harms caused by this paradigm to society, especially for the long-term interests of other stakeholders.</p><p>The global layout of the supply chain objectively leads to the geographical long distance between production supporting facilities and retail consumption, multiple links of logistics and distribution, and the increase of operational complexity. The direct consequence is the increase of operational risks and difficulty in controlling them. At present, the bottleneck of shipping also vividly reflects what is wrong with the global economic development paradigm.</p><p>A UK company that makes sealing machines for packaged food is struggling because it can't secure the supply of the components it needs. The company's suppliers in Japan could deliver key equipment in four to six weeks, but now it takes half a year. And that Japanese supplier has been trying to ensure the electronic components it needs, most of which are produced in Asia and cannot be replaced elsewhere. Coupled with automakers' desperate desire to get chips, it makes it harder for companies in other industries to get parts that are already in severe shortage. This is the embodiment of close coupling in the field of geographical layout, and it is the second deep reason.</p><p>The third deep-seated reason is related to the rise of China after globalization. After the end of the Cold War, Fukuyama and others believed that history had come to an end, and the market economy and * 's * would become a unified template for future development. However, no one expected that since China joined the WTO, it not only became even more powerful, but also began to quietly create its own rules of the game, which challenged the existing global economic system.</p><p>This eventually triggered a fierce Sino-US trade war and a series of subsequent geopolitically oriented side-selection, which caused China and western developed countries to part ways in terms of economy and political system. Under this basic pattern, no matter Chinese multinational companies or local companies, or multinational companies in other countries, they are all facing an unprecedented profound challenge, that is, how to reconstruct the global supply chain of their own businesses.</p><p><b>The situation of reconstruction</b></p><p><i>The long-term response strategy of supply chain bottlenecks should take organizational resilience as its underlying logic.</i></p><p>We believe that the short-term response strategy to supply chain bottlenecks is based on overcoming the immediate difficulties. From the perspective of how Chinese enterprises should respond, we put forward some alternative strategies.</p><p><ul><li>Chinese enterprises that encounter delivery delays should strive to renegotiate new contracts with the other party, and urge the other party to understand the difficulties caused by special situations, especially those caused by force majeure conditions (rather than their own human errors), and minimize compensation for losses.</p><p></li><li>Chinese enterprises need to pay special attention to cash flow, ensure that they have basically sufficient liquidity, and avoid the break of the capital chain, so as to successfully tide over the difficulties.</p><p></li><li>Chinese enterprises can make full use of the government's current policy of supporting \"specialized, special and new little giant\" enterprises, strengthen the necessary research and development to break through technical bottlenecks, strive to build themselves, and become future invisible (single/refined) champions. We believe that this is the most significant national policy at present and for a long time to come, and we hope to attract the attention of more Chinese enterprises.</p><p></li></ul>On the other hand, we advocate that the long-term response strategy to supply chain bottlenecks should take organizational resilience as its underlying logic, so as to overcome various problems caused by the underlying reasons mentioned above, including real-time production models, excessive geographical concentration, and serious conflict between China and the United States.</p><p>The definition of resilience varies in different fields, but it is basically the same. The core essence of toughness is the ability to rebound: the higher the toughness, the greater the potential to continue functioning under deformation pressure. However, in the field of management, the concept of resilience has been extended and developed, mainly in terms of surpassing the ability to rebound.</p><p>We believe that organizational resilience mainly includes two dimensions. The first dimension is that after experiencing an adversity crisis situation, a certain enterprise can recover and survive faster and more effectively than other enterprises in the industry.</p><p>\"The wildfire can't burn out, and the spring breeze blows again\". This is generally consistent with the concept of resilience in the engineering field, and its main function is to deal with the negative threats brought by adversity crises.</p><p>The second dimension is that after experiencing the blow of the adversity crisis situation, a certain enterprise can surpass the rebound and survive faster and more effectively than other enterprises in the industry, so as to achieve improvement, overtaking and more vitality, and be higher than before the adversity crisis situation. by going up one flight of stairs. This is like \"anti-fragility\" or \"anti-fragility\" that gets stronger and stronger with setbacks.</p><p>That's why adversity can hone perseverance and promote the faster maturity of individuals and organizations. As the saying goes, \"Since ancient times, heroes have suffered many hardships, and dandies have been less wei men\". The Monkey King went through hardships in Taishang Laojun's alchemy furnace, and refined his \"sharp eyes\", which is an example of improvement and overtaking.</p><p>The second dimension of organizational resilience is obviously different from the concept of resilience in the engineering field, so it is its important extension and development. Its main function is to cope with the positive opportunities brought by adversity crises.</p><p>In particular, many people compare resilience with resistance or robustness against blows and confuse it. However, there is an essential difference between resilience and resistance: the latter will not be damaged by adversity and crisis situations, and certainly does not need to rebound or overtake, while the former must be severely damaged after being hit, but can recover and rebound or even improve overtaking.</p><p>An image metaphor is the rubber band. Its elasticity reflects the restoring force and forward momentum of toughness, but it is not absorbency or tolerance, nor is it general adaptability.</p><p>Therefore, \"recovery rebound\" and \"improvement overtaking\" are the two core intrinsic characteristics of resilience. The resistance is similar to the \"strong grass\" in the \"strong wind knows the strong grass\" mentioned in \"Dongguan Han Ji Wang Ba Biography\".</p><p>Different from this, the key to toughness lies not in resistance, but in the ability to rebound and overtake. As the famous saying in Mencius Telling the World says, \"Therefore, heaven will give a great responsibility to Sri Lankan people, so they must first suffer their minds, work their muscles and bones, starve their skin, empty their bodies, and confuse their actions. Therefore, they are tempted to be patient, and they can't benefit them.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6152a9c451daa7f57cffad7c12a7c74a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In short, organizational resilience is the core capability of enterprises to cope with adversity crises in today's VUCA + era, including two dimensions: rebound recovery and overtaking improvement. We believe that organizational resilience is mainly reflected in several aspects:</p><p><ul><li>The idea of zero inventory advocated by lean mode and real-time mode should be turned into moderate inventory, and different inventory degrees should be arranged according to different situations. At the weakest bottleneck of the supply chain, more inventory and moderate slack of other resources are required, while in other places, inventory and other redundant resources can be minimized.</p><p></li><li>It is necessary to moderately disperse the geographical layout of suppliers, and not rely too much on the only supplier in one place to avoid risks. Folk experience is true, you should not put all your eggs in one basket.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Effectively ensure the smooth circulation between domestic and international dual circulation, including dispersing market demand and parts supply among different developed and developing countries.</p><p></li><li>Overseas mergers and acquisitions of hidden champion companies may be the most valuable investment in the long-term, but the merger and acquisition method needs to be flexible, and you can participate in minority investment to strengthen mutual trust between the two parties.</p><p></li><li>It is necessary to strengthen cooperative relations with countries that are relatively neutral in geopolitics, such as Vietnam and certain African countries with conditions.</p><p></li><li>Developed countries whose local manufacturing industries are hollowing out are beginning to realize the long-term significance of the current crisis, and will definitely seek alternative solutions, especially alternative solutions to establish local core supply chains. This is of great significance to the restructuring of existing supply chains around the world. China needs to pay close attention to this and take precautions at the end of the rain.</p><p></li><li>Similarly, China needs to make breakthroughs in certain \"stuck\" areas in order to form a pattern of interdependence and mutual restriction with other competing countries, similar to the containment pattern among nuclear-weapon states.</p><p></li><li>In the face of Sino-US decoupling in some areas, China needs to pay special attention and actively participate in the formulation of global industry standards. In addition, Chinese enterprises need to learn to deal with the future pattern of two competing industry standard systems in important industries around the world.</p><p></li></ul>Faced with the increasingly obvious VUCA + scenario, the market has increasingly higher requirements for supply chain resilience, because any unexpected delays may be amplified to the upstream and downstream of the supply chain of one industry, or several industries.</p><p>We believe that it is necessary to fundamentally change the mainstream management paradigm and business model of enterprises based on short-term financial returns. Without this profound paradigm shift, after the crisis eases, most enterprises will heal their scars and forget their pain, and gradually return to the old path.</p><p>This is a management revolution that requires long-term efforts to rebuild a long-term management paradigm and business model that balances the rights and interests of multiple stakeholders for sustainable development.</p><p>In particular, it should be pointed out that the current emerging \"anti-globalization\" trend is not a complete denial of the previous globalization paradigm, but only a partial correction, that is, from an extremely paranoid globalization paradigm to a future globalization paradigm with long-term sustained and balanced development.</p><p>According to the 2018 report of China's foreign investment, in 2017, foreign-funded enterprises accounted for less than 3% of the total number of enterprises in China, but they created nearly 1/2 of foreign trade, 1/4 of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size, 1/5 of tax revenue, and more than 45 million direct employment (accounting for more than 10% of the domestic urban employment population, excluding indirect employment brought by upstream and downstream related industries).</p><p>Therefore, we need to adhere to the basic national policy of reform and opening up, and ensure the organic balance of internal and external circulation in the \"double circulation\". Similar to the important role of private enterprises in economic development, the unique role of foreign-funded enterprises is also irreplaceable.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XrUqawTkNFpczFJ4b0qV1Q\">中欧商业评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781bdda0e66d23e0187d95bba5bcb171","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XrUqawTkNFpczFJ4b0qV1Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148030034","content_text":"大多数消费者目前似乎还没有强烈感受到，全球几乎所有企业正在遭受的巨大挑战——全球供应链产生严重瓶颈所带来的紧张短缺、部分断裂的问题。这个问题不仅由于新冠疫情持续演变，也因过去商业模式所遗留下来的内在缺陷，和新的地缘政治冲突所致。\n\n\n 比如面对半导体芯片的持续短缺，丰田已在本月宣布削减其40%的全球汽车产量。尽管产品需求强劲，但世界各地的工厂都买不到金属部件、塑料和其他原材料。建筑公司正在为油漆、木材和五金支付更多的钱，但要等上数周甚至数月才能收到……\n\n\n 更令人担忧的是，由于供应链瓶颈，物价开始上涨，很可能加剧全球货币超发所导致的通货膨胀。面对严峻挑战，《中欧商业评论》特邀李平与石涌江两位教授，阐述全球供应链出现严重瓶颈的深层原因，并提出解决这些问题的可行性方案。\n\n近几个月，延误、产品短缺和成本上升，持续困扰着大大小小的企业及其用户。\n管理者和消费者也开始面对一种现代社会曾经罕见的经历：一方面是大量的订单涌入，形成瞬间的能力短缺继而恐慌焦虑；另一方面又因供应链上中下游无法协调动作，上游原材料缺货、中游在制品积压、下游产成品因缺乏运力而无法离岸。\n事到如今，我们不禁要问，造成目前供应链瓶颈的原因究竟是什么？\n瓶颈之源\n短期强力市场需求反弹是导致全球供应链紧张的最为直接的原因之一。\n全球经济复苏前景中持续存在异常的不确定性，而“供应链瓶颈”恰恰正是这种不确定性的核心因素。\n如果短缺一直持续到明年，很有可能推动一系列大宗商品的价格上涨。目前各国的中央银行都在关注潜在通货膨胀问题，其中一个无人可以完全自信回答，短缺和延迟只是随着经济复苏短暂出现？还是会成为持续较长时间的严重隐患？\n从表面情况来看，最近出现的强力市场需求反弹是导致全球供应链紧张的最为直接的因素或原因之一。这个问题很大程度上反映了市场需求的异常变化。\n美国和其他富裕国家的消费者被新冠疫情限制在家中，驱使他们为家里添购类似游戏机、跑步机、厨房用品等产品，因而导致有关产品供应不足。\n此外，由于新冠疫情，人们无法度假旅行，就把这方面节省下来的费用转向购买其他产品，也导致有关产品供应不足。\n再次，美国等国政府发放的新冠疫情补助金同时增加了消费者的购买能力与意愿，进一步加大供应不足的程度。\n疫情期间，受各种封锁措施的影响，全球供应链不可避免会承受压力。除了中国以外，东南亚作为全球供应链中重要的一环，由于最近疫情的反弹，经济生产活动严重受阻，其中又以越南、马来西亚等国最为严重。越南全国几乎都处于社会隔离的状态，其制造业正面临工人流失、订单流失、资本流失等三大危机。\n当然，除了疫情，极端气候、自然灾害也会对供应链产生了负面影响。不过，这只是由于天灾所导致的外部问题，最为严重的还有供应本身的问题。\n大多数企业低估了最近市场需求的反弹强力，没有事前预定足够的零配件与原材料，因此无法在短期内提升供应产量。\n\n例如，全球所有汽车企业都以为，这场新冠疫情会严重减少并延迟市场对汽车的购买，因此大幅度减少零部件购买订单，却万万没想到市场需求在很短时间内强力反弹，导致目前零配件严重不足，无法满足市场需求。这属于企业管理人员的判断错误，属于人为失误。\n2020年春季汽车行业进行大幅减产，而当中国市场显示出令人惊异的复苏势头时，中国某大型车企的高管表示汽车行业当时“只订购了3个月的半导体等零部件，并未拟定乐观的生产计划”。\n同时，不同行业的市场需求几乎同时反弹，也让大多数企业措手不及。全球半导体芯片的严重短缺就与此密切相关。\n汽车行业由于没有提前安排订单，目前很难获得所需要的芯片，因为有限的芯片生产能力大多转向更为盈利的电子产品行业。加拿大或日本的电视机订单的意外增长，加剧了芯片的短缺情况，迫使汽车制造商放慢从韩国到德国再到巴西的生产数量。\n而影响更为深远的是企业无法控制的政治因素。全球半导体短缺的重要开端是美国政府对中国大陆企业的制裁。代工企业中芯国际（SMIC）等成为制裁目标，订单集中涌向了以世界最大的台积电（TSMC）为中心的台湾企业。\n美国高通迅速采取行动，相继走访台积电和联华电子（UMC）等台湾半导体企业，为了替代中芯国际下了大量的订单。此外，由于美国政府加强对华为的制裁，台积电等台湾企业自7月起进入了罕见的繁忙期，因为华为提前下了超乎寻常的大量订单，抢在新制裁于9月启动之前囤货所需芯片。\n航运之难\n运输产生的严重瓶颈，导致运力难求，运费暴涨，交货延误。\n使得以上困难雪上加霜的还有在航运领域的巨大挑战。\n具体而言，今年3月开始，随着全球航运成本飙升，许多商品变得稀缺，导致大批集装箱让航运业应接不暇。先有一艘巨型货轮在苏伊士运河搁浅，数百艘货船受阻，导致连接欧洲与亚洲的重要航道交通中断了一周。苏伊士运河是占世界贸易约12%的货物的通道，这一负面影响持续了好几个月，加剧了海运业的混乱。\n后来，中国一系列与新冠疫情有关的港口临时关闭（包括深圳、烟台、宁波等）更加剧了这种混乱。大量的产品需要从中国的港口运往全球各个国家，这些港口的关闭成为波及全球的滚雪球事件，甚至威胁美国商店感恩节后的黑色星期五促销活动的商品供应。\n加之全球消费需求暴增，航运业订单量持续增加。美国港口到货量持续创纪录，但由于缺工、缺货柜，缺船，出现塞港情形，导致物流大延迟。例如，由于运到洛杉矶的集装箱无法卸货，爱荷华州的大豆没有集装箱可运，而印度尼西亚的买家只能等待，于是引发东南亚动物饲料的短缺。\n长期以来，廉价可靠的海运一直是国际贸易的重要组成部分，让制造商们能为寻找低工资劳动力和廉价原材料将生产在世界各地转移。但自新冠疫情以来，从亚洲向美国运输货物的成本已经上涨了10倍之多。\n\n疫情之前，一个40英尺集装箱从上海运到美国中西部需要花6000-7000美元，但定于9月中旬离开中国的下一批货物运费已至少是2.6万美元；再加上由于美国铁路和卡车运输的困难，运费很可能会涨到3.5万美元。\n通常情况下，跨太平洋的货运需求高峰始于夏末，结束于冬季，也就是年底节假日期间的货物备全之后。但去年冬季，货运需求的高峰一直没有结束，现在又与今年节假日期间购物高潮汇合在一起，加剧了工厂、仓库、货船和卡车的压力。\n如今，中国国内的现状加重了人们对未来前景的担心。很多企业面临几十年未遇的反常现象。一方面订单生产忙不过来，另一方面产品库存严重积压，无法发货。这是因为运输产生严重瓶颈，运力难求，运费暴涨，交货延误。\n更令人担心的是，由于供应链瓶颈，物价开始上涨，很可能加剧由于全球货币超发所导致的通货膨胀。这是大家最为担心，也是最不愿意看到的后果。\n深层之困\n全球企业都将长期面临深刻挑战，需重构自身业务的全球供应链。\n受丰田生产模式成功的影响，许多公司都采用了精益生产模式与即时生产模式(Just in Time/JIT)，以尽量削减库存和其他各种浪费。这对削减成本、提高利润很有效果，但这也给纠正差错留下极小的余地。\n有关研究发现，从1981年到2000年，美国企业每年平均降低2%库存，而省下来的成本用来回购上市股票，进一步推高股票市场价格。若企业处于相对稳定的情境下，如世界二战后的长期和平发展阶段，丰田生产模式显得异常有效。\n一旦情境变得高度混乱，特别是VUCA+时代（多变性、不确定性、复杂性、模糊性和新颖性），丰田生产模式内在的缺陷就会日益暴露。一旦供应链系统中任何一处出现问题，整个系统就会产生瓶颈，甚至出现不同程度的断裂。\n换言之，由于丰田生产模式构建在资源管理领域的紧密耦合(tight coupling)的底层逻辑之上，这种模式严重缺乏韧性，在遇到突发性危机以后的及时应对与快速反弹方面缺乏能力，紧密耦合仅仅只能在高纬度场景下发挥高效率作用。\n但场景变化，尤其是突然的变化，将这种耦合变成一种桎梏，阻碍应变能力的发挥。这一深层问题，应该提高到范式（即VUCA+范式）转变的高度，得到足够重视，并尽快有效解决。这是目前供应链瓶颈的第一个深层原因。\n第二个深层原因更为深刻，即以前全球化范式本身不可持续发展的问题。这个问题的核心内涵，是全球生产供应过于集中在少数几个国家，甚至只有一个国家（如中国成为所谓“世界工厂”），仅仅为了最大规模市场与最低人工成本。\n世界已得到了一个痛苦的教训：相隔万里的各个原本相对独立的多元经济体如此紧密地绑在一起，以至于任何一个地方的延误和短缺都会波及到几乎世界所有其他地方，无一幸免。这次新冠疫情最为形象生动地体现这一经济发展范式的弊端，而这一弊端长期被人们有意忽视，甚至恶意掩盖。\n\n换言之，出自贪婪本性，短期资本打着全球化对全球人民有利的旗号，利用对资方最为有利的商业模式，追求单一财务回报最大化，有意忽视，甚至恶意掩盖这一范式对社会造成的潜在风险与危害，尤其是对其他利益相关者长期利益而言。\n供应链的全球布局，客观上导致了生产配套与零售消费之间的地理性长距离，物流配送的多个环节以及运营复杂性的提高，直接的后果便是经营风险的提高和难以掌控。目前航运的瓶颈同样形象生动地反映了全球经济发展范式到底出现了什么问题。\n英国一家生产包装食品密封机器的公司因无法确保其所需部件的供货而步履维艰。公司在日本的供应商原本四到六周就能交付关键设备，现在需要半年。而那家日本供应商一直在努力确保其所需的电子元件，这些元件多数在亚洲生产，其他地方无法替代。加上汽车制造商不顾一切想获得芯片，让其他行业的企业更难获得本已严重短缺的零部件。这是紧密耦合在地理布局领域的体现，是第二个深层原因。\n第三个深层原因则和全球化之后的中国崛起有关。冷战结束以后，福山等人认为历史告一段落，市场经济与民主宪政将成为未来发展之统一模板。然而，谁都没有料想到，中国自从加入了WTO 之后，不仅如虎添翼，而且开始悄悄自行创立游戏规则，导致已有的全球经济体制遭受挑战。\n这最终引发了剧烈的中美贸易战和后续的一系列地缘政治导向的选边站队，在经济与政治制度等方面使得中国与西方发达国家开始分道扬镳。在这种基本格局之下，无论是中国的跨国公司或是本土企业，还是其它国家的跨国公司，全部都面临着一场前所未有的深刻挑战，即如何重构自己业务的全球供应链。\n重构之局\n供应链瓶颈的长期应对战略，应该以组织韧性为其底层逻辑。\n我们认为，供应链瓶颈的短期应对策略，以度过眼前难关为其基本原则。我们从中国企业如何应对的视角，提出一些可供选择的策略。\n\n遭遇交货延误的中国企业，应该争取与对方重新谈判新合同，恳请对方理解特殊情境所导致的困难，尤其是在不可抗力条件（而非自己的人为失误）造成的困境，尽量减少赔偿损失。\n中国企业需要特别关注现金流，保证有基本足够的流动资金，避免资金链断裂，以便顺利度过难关。\n中国企业可以充分利用政府目前支持“专精特新小巨人”企业的政策，加强突破技术瓶颈的必要研发，努力打造自身，成为未来隐形（单项/精一）冠军。我们认为，这是目前、以及未来很长一段时间内最具重大意义的国策，希望引起更多中国企业的重视。\n\n另一方面，我们主张供应链瓶颈的长期应对战略应该以组织韧性为其底层逻辑，以此克服以上提到的深层原因所带来的各种问题，包括即时生产模式、地理过于集中、中美严重冲突。\n关于韧性(resilience)的定义在不同领域有所不同，但基本上大同小异。韧性的核心本质就是反弹能力：韧性越高，在变形压力下继续发挥功能的潜力越大。然而，在管理学领域，韧性概念有所延伸与发展，主要在超越反弹能力方面。\n我们认为，组织韧性主要包含两大维度。第一个维度是在经历逆境危机情境打击之后，某一企业能够比本行业其他企业能够更快、更为有效地恢复反弹与继续存活。\n“野火烧不尽，春风吹又生”。这与工程领域韧性概念大体一致，其主要作用功能是应对逆境危机所带来的负面威胁。\n第二个维度是在经历逆境危机情境打击之后，某一企业能够比本行业其他企业能够更快、更为有效地超越反弹与存活，达到改进反超与更具活力，比逆境危机情境之前更上一层楼。这好比越挫越强的“反脆弱”或“逆脆弱”。\n这就是为何逆境可以磨练毅力，促进个人与组织更快成熟，正如俗语所言，“自古英雄多磨难，纨绔子弟少伟男”。孙悟空在太上老君炼丹炉里历经磨难，炼就“火眼金睛”，就是改进反超一个范例。\n组织韧性的第二维度与工程领域韧性概念具有明显区别，因此是其重要延伸与发展，其主要作用功能是应对逆境危机所带来的正面机遇。\n需要特别指出，不少人将韧性与对抗打击的抵抗力或鲁棒性(robustness)相提并论，混为一谈。但是，韧性与抵抗力具有本质区别：后者不会被逆境危机情境打击而受损，当然也不需要反弹或反超，而前者必须遭受打击后严重受损，却能够恢复反弹，甚至改进反超。\n一个形象比喻就是橡皮筋，其弹性反映韧性的恢复力与前冲力，但不是吸收性或容忍性，也不是泛泛的适应性。\n因此， “恢复反弹”与“改进反超”是韧性的两大核心内在特征。抵抗力类似《东观汉记·王霸传》中所提到的“疾风知劲草”中的“劲草”。\n与此不同，韧性关键不在于抵抗力，而在于反弹与反超能力，如同《孟子·告天下》名言所说，“故天将降大任于斯人也，必先苦其心志，劳其筋骨，饿其体肤，空乏其身，行拂乱其所为，所以动心忍性，曾益其所不能。”\n\n总之，组织韧性是企业面临当今VUCA+时代应对逆境危机的核心能力，包含反弹恢复和反超改进两大维度。我们认为，组织韧性主要体现于几下几个方面：\n\n精益模式与即时模式所提倡的零库存思路应该变成适度库存，根据不同情境采用不同的库存程度安排。在供应链最为薄弱的瓶颈之处需要较多的库存，以及其他资源的适度冗余(slack)，而在其他地方则可以尽量减少库存与其他冗余资源。\n需要适度分散供应商地理布局，不可过度依赖一个地方的唯一供应商，以此规避风险。民间经验没错，不应把所有鸡蛋放到一个篮子里。\n\n\n切实保障国内国际双循环两者之间的通畅流通，包括将市场需求与零部件供应分散于不同的多个发达国家与多个发展中国家。\n在海外并购隐形冠军企业可能是最有长期价值的投资，但并购方式需要灵活机动，可以多以少数股投资方式参与，强化双方彼此的信任。\n需要加强与地缘政治方面相对中立国家的合作关系，例如越南与某些条件具备的非洲国家。\n本土制造业空洞化的发达国家开始意识到目前危机的长远意义，定会寻求备用方案，尤其是建立本土核心供应链的替代方案。这对全球现有供应链的重组意义重大。中国需要对此保持密切关注，末雨绸缪。\n与此类似，中国需要在某些“卡脖子”领域里有所突破，以此与其他竞争国家形成彼此依赖、互为制约的格局，类似核武器国之间的遏制格局。\n面对某些领域的中美脱钩，中国需要格外关注，并积极参与全球行业标准的制定。此外，中国企业需要学会应对在全球重要行业存在两套相互竞争的行业标准体系的未来格局。\n\n面对日益明显的VUCA+情境，市场对供应链韧性要求越来越高，因为任何意外导致的延误都可能放大至一个行业，或数个行业供应链的上下游。\n我们认为，需要从根本上转变企业以短期财务回报为本的主流管理范式与商业模式。如果没有这一深刻范式转变，危机缓和之后大多数企业就会好了伤疤忘了疼，逐步回到以前的老路上去。\n这是一场管理革命，需要长期努力，重建可持续发展的长期平衡多元利益相关者权益的管理范式与商业模式。\n需要特别指出，目前涌现的“逆全球化”趋势，并不是对以前全球化范式的彻底否定，而只是部分纠偏，即从极端偏执的全球化范式转向长期持续平衡发展的未来全球化范式。\n根据中国外商投资2018年报告，2017年外资企业仅占全国企业总数不足3%, 却创造了近1/2外贸、1/4规模以上工业企业利润、1/5税收收入、直接就业人数超过4500万（占国内城镇就业人口的比重超过10%，还不包括上下游相关产业所带来的间接就业）。\n因此，我们需要坚持改革开放的基本国策，保证“双循环”中内外循环的有机平衡。类似民营企业对于经济发展的重要作用，外资企业的独特作用同样不可替代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886986494,"gmtCreate":1631543772418,"gmtModify":1676530571995,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886986494","repostId":"2167306263","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2167306263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631501464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167306263?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-13 10:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Key variables in overseas markets in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167306263","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复，同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。","content":"<p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again, US Treasury yields have risen steadily, the U.S. stock market has fallen from its high level, and the U.S. dollar has strengthened, driving gold to plummet. The background of these changes, as we suggested in our September monthly report, is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation in which there is no obvious turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations, but policy variables may increase, superimposed on the previous accumulation. There are more gains, so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates. Looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are more important:</p><p><b>► Epidemic</b>, changes in the epidemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repairs, but also affect the direction of interest rates.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the subsequent recovery of economic activities and employment, and it also corresponds to the basic bottom of real interest rates.</b></p><p><b>► Inflation</b>The August CPI data will be released in the middle of the month (September 14), which will also have an important impact on reduction expectations and interest rate trends. The final price pressure is actually the result of the comprehensive influence of both supply and demand.<b>The last round of epidemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stage, we saw improvements in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction is basically eliminated, but the official launch in December is still the baseline scenario.<b>It is not impossible to pave the way for a fine-tuning statement in September, not to mention that the September interest rate meeting also has updated economic data, dot plots and other information.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal policy and the debt ceiling</b>, the second half of September is a key node for the switch between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and fiscal policies such as 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion spending plans. The potential impact is even greater than monetary policy or the epidemic.<b>The increase in TGA accounts again not only means that the stage of sharp decline to release liquidity since April and May has passed, but also means that the marginal increase in bond supply, which may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates and the US dollar than just incremental reductions. Reduced QE reductions.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: Several key variables that may affect the market in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal</b></p><p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again. US Treasury yields have risen steadily, the U.S. stock market has fallen from its high level, and the U.S. dollar has strengthened, driving gold to plummet. These changes are consistent with the September monthly allocation report \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021)\" published by us at the beginning of the month.-9) The information prompted in \"Short-term Turning to Risk Prevention\" is basically the same.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background of these changes is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation in which there is no obvious turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations (the impact of the epidemic continues, and China's growth is accelerating and slowing down), but policy variables may increase (Federal Reserve FOMC, U.S. debt ceiling and fiscal spending), superimposed on the previous accumulation of more gains (September is the weakest month for U.S. stocks throughout the year), so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking forward to the remaining two weeks of September, there are several important changes that deserve close attention:</p><p><b>The first is the epidemic. Changes in the epidemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repairs, but also affect the direction of interest rates.</b>If we analyze in (\"Reviewing the Rhythm and Impact of the Last Round of Epidemic in the United States from August 30 to September 5, 2021\") and (\"The\" Mystery \"of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates\"), the last round from early October to The epidemic at the beginning of this year has many similarities and worth learning from the current situation.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the rapid recovery of subsequent economic activities and employment. Although there is a certain time lag, it also corresponds to the basic bottom of real interest rates</b>。</p><p>The latest recent change is that the epidemic situation in the United States has shown certain signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched the latest epidemic action plan for mandatory acceleration of vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's latest epidemic action plan for epidemic resumption of work Weekly Tracking (September 11)\"),<b>If the above two measures have a significant effect on improving the epidemic in the future, it will help ease growth concerns and provide conditions for rising interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The second is inflation (September 14). The August CPI data released in the middle of the month also has an important impact on reduction expectations and interest rate trends.</b>The impact of the short-term escalation of the epidemic is two levels. On the one hand, it may once again drag down the repair of the supply chain and lead to tight supply. For example, the continued escalation of the epidemic in some Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam has affected local production, but on the other hand, it will also cause demand. For example, we have recently noticed that high-frequency travel and consumption indicators have weakened, not to mention that commodity consumption, which has surged due to fiscal stimulus, has also fallen from its high point.<b>Therefore, the final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of supply and demand</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, we have recently noticed that the supply chain (such as the delivery time of PMI in August), inventory (nominal terminal consumer goods inventory in July and PMI inventory in August), and capacity utilization (especially the cars with the most acute contradiction between supply and demand) have all appeared. There are signs of improvement, and based on the experience of the last round of epidemic,<b>During the escalation of the epidemic, the main impact is delivery time rather than greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure from April to May was mainly due to the resonance of multiple structural factors such as demand stimulus and weather chips.</p><p>The current market consensus expectation is that inflation will continue to fall month-on-month in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase the market's pressure on the Fed to reduce volumes and rise interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early reduction has basically been eliminated, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark scenario</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole meeting change the pace of reduction?\", \"Eight questions and eight answers about QE reduction, August 16-August 22, 2021\"). With only two meetings left in September and early November before the end of the year, it is not impossible to pave the way for a fine-tuning statement in September, not to mention that the September interest rate meeting also has updated economic data and dot plots and other information. Therefore, it is still a time worthy of special attention.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices, such as Treasury Bond interest rates, a small change in expectations is sufficient, rather than a substantial change</b>This is the case with the experience in 2013.</p><p>In our recently published special report \"The\" Mystery \"of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates\", we mentioned that since the epidemic and all previous periods in history when real interest rates have been significantly negative,<b>High liquidity is a major and even the most critical factor</b>。 If quantitatively measured by the M2 indicator, the real interest rate has about 130bp upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The fourth is fiscal policy and the debt ceiling. The second half of September is a key node for the switch between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and fiscal policies such as the 550 billion infrastructure and the 3.5 trillion spending plan. Its potential impact is even greater than monetary policy or the epidemic.</b>For example, after the Senate returns from vacation on September 15, it can begin to negotiate and discuss the details of the 3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? August 9 ~ August 15, 2021\"), and there will be a clearer picture of whether tax increases will actually be involved. If progress goes smoothly, the superimposed 550 billion infrastructure plan is likely to be passed, which is expected to significantly boost interest rates and the US dollar, but tax increases may suppress sentiment in the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be the focus of follow-up attention</b>。 Treasury Secretary Yellen once again urged Congress last week to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, and the current emergency measures of the Treasury Department will be exhausted in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. There is a high probability that the two parties will find a compromise solution. Historically, the actual impact on the market is not great.<b>But what is more critical is the implicit impact behind the liberalization of the debt ceiling on the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance, that is, the supply of bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current TGA account has dropped from US $1.6 trillion in early February to the current US $200 billion, which is also a new low since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The re-increase of TGA accounts not only means that the stage of releasing liquidity from April to May has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates and the US dollar than the monetary policy reduction operation with only incremental reduction deserves special attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"kevinclyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Key variables in overseas markets in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKey variables in overseas markets in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Kevin策略研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-13 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again, US Treasury yields have risen steadily, the U.S. stock market has fallen from its high level, and the U.S. dollar has strengthened, driving gold to plummet. The background of these changes, as we suggested in our September monthly report, is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation in which there is no obvious turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations, but policy variables may increase, superimposed on the previous accumulation. There are more gains, so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates. Looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are more important:</p><p><b>► Epidemic</b>, changes in the epidemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repairs, but also affect the direction of interest rates.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the subsequent recovery of economic activities and employment, and it also corresponds to the basic bottom of real interest rates.</b></p><p><b>► Inflation</b>The August CPI data will be released in the middle of the month (September 14), which will also have an important impact on reduction expectations and interest rate trends. The final price pressure is actually the result of the comprehensive influence of both supply and demand.<b>The last round of epidemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stage, we saw improvements in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction is basically eliminated, but the official launch in December is still the baseline scenario.<b>It is not impossible to pave the way for a fine-tuning statement in September, not to mention that the September interest rate meeting also has updated economic data, dot plots and other information.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal policy and the debt ceiling</b>, the second half of September is a key node for the switch between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and fiscal policies such as 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion spending plans. The potential impact is even greater than monetary policy or the epidemic.<b>The increase in TGA accounts again not only means that the stage of sharp decline to release liquidity since April and May has passed, but also means that the marginal increase in bond supply, which may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates and the US dollar than just incremental reductions. Reduced QE reductions.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: Several key variables that may affect the market in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal</b></p><p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again. US Treasury yields have risen steadily, the U.S. stock market has fallen from its high level, and the U.S. dollar has strengthened, driving gold to plummet. These changes are consistent with the September monthly allocation report \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021)\" published by us at the beginning of the month.-9) The information prompted in \"Short-term Turning to Risk Prevention\" is basically the same.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background of these changes is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation in which there is no obvious turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations (the impact of the epidemic continues, and China's growth is accelerating and slowing down), but policy variables may increase (Federal Reserve FOMC, U.S. debt ceiling and fiscal spending), superimposed on the previous accumulation of more gains (September is the weakest month for U.S. stocks throughout the year), so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking forward to the remaining two weeks of September, there are several important changes that deserve close attention:</p><p><b>The first is the epidemic. Changes in the epidemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repairs, but also affect the direction of interest rates.</b>If we analyze in (\"Reviewing the Rhythm and Impact of the Last Round of Epidemic in the United States from August 30 to September 5, 2021\") and (\"The\" Mystery \"of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates\"), the last round from early October to The epidemic at the beginning of this year has many similarities and worth learning from the current situation.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the rapid recovery of subsequent economic activities and employment. Although there is a certain time lag, it also corresponds to the basic bottom of real interest rates</b>。</p><p>The latest recent change is that the epidemic situation in the United States has shown certain signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched the latest epidemic action plan for mandatory acceleration of vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's latest epidemic action plan for epidemic resumption of work Weekly Tracking (September 11)\"),<b>If the above two measures have a significant effect on improving the epidemic in the future, it will help ease growth concerns and provide conditions for rising interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The second is inflation (September 14). The August CPI data released in the middle of the month also has an important impact on reduction expectations and interest rate trends.</b>The impact of the short-term escalation of the epidemic is two levels. On the one hand, it may once again drag down the repair of the supply chain and lead to tight supply. For example, the continued escalation of the epidemic in some Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam has affected local production, but on the other hand, it will also cause demand. For example, we have recently noticed that high-frequency travel and consumption indicators have weakened, not to mention that commodity consumption, which has surged due to fiscal stimulus, has also fallen from its high point.<b>Therefore, the final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of supply and demand</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, we have recently noticed that the supply chain (such as the delivery time of PMI in August), inventory (nominal terminal consumer goods inventory in July and PMI inventory in August), and capacity utilization (especially the cars with the most acute contradiction between supply and demand) have all appeared. There are signs of improvement, and based on the experience of the last round of epidemic,<b>During the escalation of the epidemic, the main impact is delivery time rather than greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure from April to May was mainly due to the resonance of multiple structural factors such as demand stimulus and weather chips.</p><p>The current market consensus expectation is that inflation will continue to fall month-on-month in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase the market's pressure on the Fed to reduce volumes and rise interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early reduction has basically been eliminated, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark scenario</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole meeting change the pace of reduction?\", \"Eight questions and eight answers about QE reduction, August 16-August 22, 2021\"). With only two meetings left in September and early November before the end of the year, it is not impossible to pave the way for a fine-tuning statement in September, not to mention that the September interest rate meeting also has updated economic data and dot plots and other information. Therefore, it is still a time worthy of special attention.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices, such as Treasury Bond interest rates, a small change in expectations is sufficient, rather than a substantial change</b>This is the case with the experience in 2013.</p><p>In our recently published special report \"The\" Mystery \"of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates\", we mentioned that since the epidemic and all previous periods in history when real interest rates have been significantly negative,<b>High liquidity is a major and even the most critical factor</b>。 If quantitatively measured by the M2 indicator, the real interest rate has about 130bp upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The fourth is fiscal policy and the debt ceiling. The second half of September is a key node for the switch between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and fiscal policies such as the 550 billion infrastructure and the 3.5 trillion spending plan. Its potential impact is even greater than monetary policy or the epidemic.</b>For example, after the Senate returns from vacation on September 15, it can begin to negotiate and discuss the details of the 3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? August 9 ~ August 15, 2021\"), and there will be a clearer picture of whether tax increases will actually be involved. If progress goes smoothly, the superimposed 550 billion infrastructure plan is likely to be passed, which is expected to significantly boost interest rates and the US dollar, but tax increases may suppress sentiment in the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be the focus of follow-up attention</b>。 Treasury Secretary Yellen once again urged Congress last week to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, and the current emergency measures of the Treasury Department will be exhausted in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. There is a high probability that the two parties will find a compromise solution. Historically, the actual impact on the market is not great.<b>But what is more critical is the implicit impact behind the liberalization of the debt ceiling on the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance, that is, the supply of bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current TGA account has dropped from US $1.6 trillion in early February to the current US $200 billion, which is also a new low since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The re-increase of TGA accounts not only means that the stage of releasing liquidity from April to May has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates and the US dollar than the monetary policy reduction operation with only incremental reduction deserves special attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml\">Kevin策略研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167306263","content_text":"近期，海外市场再度出现一些波动，美债利率稳中有升，美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌。出现这些变化的背景，如我们在9月月报中提示的，主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂、但政策变数却可能增多的局面，叠加此前积累了较多涨幅，因此不排除出现波动，而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。展望9月余下两周多，几个变化较为重要：\n►疫情，疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复，同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。\n►通胀，月中（9月14日）将公布8月CPI数据对减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。最终价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果，上轮疫情升级影响的主要是交付时间而并非产能利用率。前期我们看到产能、库存都有改善。\n►FOMC会议（9月21~22日），提前减量的风险基本被排除，但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形。9月微调声明铺垫也并非没有可能，更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息。\n►财政政策与债务上限，9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点，潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着4~5月份以来大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去，也意味着债券供给的边际增多，这对流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响可能要大于仅是增量减少的QE减量。\n本周焦点：9月可能影响市场的几个关键变量：疫情、通胀、美联储、财政\n近期，海外市场再度出现一些波动，美债利率稳中有升，美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌，这些变化与我们在月初发表的9月配置月报《海外资产配置月报（2021-9）短期转向防风险》中所提示信息基本一致。\n\n出现这些变化的背景，主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂（疫情影响仍在持续、中国增长呈现加速放缓态势）、但政策变数却可能增多的局面（美联储FOMC、美国债务上限和财政支出），叠加此前积累了较多涨幅（9月是美股全年来看最弱的月份），因此不排除出现波动，而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。\n因此展望9月余下的两周多时间，有几个变化较为重要，值得密切关注：\n一是疫情，疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。如果我们在（《重温美国上轮疫情的节奏与影响2021年8月30日~9月5日》）和（《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》）中分析，上一轮10月初到今年初的疫情与当下有很多相似和值得借鉴之处，疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业的快速修复，虽然存在一定时滞，同时也是对应着实际利率基本见底。\n近期最新的变化是，美国疫情出现一定筑顶迹象，新增、重症和死亡都是如此，同时白宫也最新推出了强制性加快疫苗接种最新的疫情行动计划（《解析白宫最新疫情行动计划疫情复工周度追踪（9月11日）》），如果上述措施双管齐下对未来疫情改善产生显著效果的话，那将有助于缓解增长担忧并为利率上行提供条件。\n\n二是通胀（9月14日），月中将公布的8月CPI数据对于减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。短期疫情的升级影响是两个层面的，一方面可能会再度拖累供应链的修复进而导致供应紧张，例如部分东南亚国家如越南疫情的持续升级已经影响了当地生产，但另一方面也会造成需求的回落，例如近期我们注意到高频的出行和消费指标都有所趋弱，更不用说因为财政刺激激增的商品消费也已经从高点回落，因此最终的价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果。\n所幸的是，近期我们注意到供应链（如8月PMI的交付时间）、库存（7月名义终端消费品库存和8月PMI库存）、产能利用率（特别是供需矛盾最为尖锐的汽车）都出现了改善迹象，而且根据上一轮疫情的经验，疫情升级期间影响的主要是交付时间而并非影响更大的产能利用率，4~5月的价格压力主要是由于需求刺激叠加天气芯片等多重结构性因素的共振。\n目前的市场一致预期是8月通胀环比会继续回落（0.4%vs． 7月的0.5%），如果再度超预期的话可能会加大市场对于美联储减量和利率上行的压力。\n\n三是FOMC会议（9月21~22日），经历了近期一系列的变化后，提前减量的风险基本被排除，但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形（《Jackson Hole会议改变减量节奏了么？》、《关于QE减量的八问八答2021年8月16日~8月22日》）。在年底前仅剩9月和11月初两次会议的背景下，9月微调声明做出铺垫也并非没有可能，更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息，因此依然是一个值得重点关注的时点。\n更重要的是，对于资产价格如国债利率而言，预期上的微小变化已经足够，并非需要等到实质性的改变，2013年的经验即是如此。\n我们在近期发表的专题报告《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》中，提到疫情以来，以及历史上历次实际利率大幅为负的时期，高流动性一个主要甚至是最关键的因素。如果以M2指标量化测算的话，实际利率大约有130bp的上行空间。\n\n四是财政政策与债务上限，9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点，其潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。例如，9月15日参议院休假回来以后，就可以着手就3.5万亿支出计划的细节做出协商讨论（《美国距新一轮基建和刺激还有多远？2021年8月9日~8月15日》），而其实是否会涉及到加税也将会有更为清晰的图景。如果进展顺利，叠加5500亿基建计划大概率通过，对于利率和美元预计都将起到明显提振效果，但加税可能会压制美股市场情绪。\n另外，债务上限也将是后续关注的焦点。财长耶伦上周再度敦促国会尽快提高债务上限，当前财政部的紧急措施将会在10月耗尽。债务上限本身我们到不太担心，两党大概率会找到妥协方案，从历史上来看，对市场的实际影响也不大，但更为关键的是债务上限放开后背后隐含的对于财政部TGA账户也即债券供给的影响。\n\n目前TGA账户已经从2月初的1.6万亿美元降至当前的2000亿美元，这也是2019年9月以来的新低，已经不太可能进一步回落。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着从4~5月份以来TGA账户大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去，也意味着债券供给的边际增多，这可能对于流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响要大于仅仅是增量减少的货币政策减量操作，值得重点关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886986542,"gmtCreate":1631543766386,"gmtModify":1676530571987,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886986542","repostId":"2167306263","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2167306263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631501464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167306263?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-13 10:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Key variables in overseas markets in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167306263","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复，同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。","content":"<p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again, US Treasury yields have risen steadily, the U.S. stock market has fallen from its high level, and the U.S. dollar has strengthened, driving gold to plummet. The background of these changes, as we suggested in our September monthly report, is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation in which there is no obvious turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations, but policy variables may increase, superimposed on the previous accumulation. There are more gains, so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates. Looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are more important:</p><p><b>► Epidemic</b>, changes in the epidemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repairs, but also affect the direction of interest rates.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the subsequent recovery of economic activities and employment, and it also corresponds to the basic bottom of real interest rates.</b></p><p><b>► Inflation</b>The August CPI data will be released in the middle of the month (September 14), which will also have an important impact on reduction expectations and interest rate trends. The final price pressure is actually the result of the comprehensive influence of both supply and demand.<b>The last round of epidemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stage, we saw improvements in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction is basically eliminated, but the official launch in December is still the baseline scenario.<b>It is not impossible to pave the way for a fine-tuning statement in September, not to mention that the September interest rate meeting also has updated economic data, dot plots and other information.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal policy and the debt ceiling</b>, the second half of September is a key node for the switch between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and fiscal policies such as 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion spending plans. The potential impact is even greater than monetary policy or the epidemic.<b>The increase in TGA accounts again not only means that the stage of sharp decline to release liquidity since April and May has passed, but also means that the marginal increase in bond supply, which may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates and the US dollar than just incremental reductions. Reduced QE reductions.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: Several key variables that may affect the market in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal</b></p><p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again. US Treasury yields have risen steadily, the U.S. stock market has fallen from its high level, and the U.S. dollar has strengthened, driving gold to plummet. These changes are consistent with the September monthly allocation report \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021)\" published by us at the beginning of the month.-9) The information prompted in \"Short-term Turning to Risk Prevention\" is basically the same.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background of these changes is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation in which there is no obvious turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations (the impact of the epidemic continues, and China's growth is accelerating and slowing down), but policy variables may increase (Federal Reserve FOMC, U.S. debt ceiling and fiscal spending), superimposed on the previous accumulation of more gains (September is the weakest month for U.S. stocks throughout the year), so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking forward to the remaining two weeks of September, there are several important changes that deserve close attention:</p><p><b>The first is the epidemic. Changes in the epidemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repairs, but also affect the direction of interest rates.</b>If we analyze in (\"Reviewing the Rhythm and Impact of the Last Round of Epidemic in the United States from August 30 to September 5, 2021\") and (\"The\" Mystery \"of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates\"), the last round from early October to The epidemic at the beginning of this year has many similarities and worth learning from the current situation.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the rapid recovery of subsequent economic activities and employment. Although there is a certain time lag, it also corresponds to the basic bottom of real interest rates</b>。</p><p>The latest recent change is that the epidemic situation in the United States has shown certain signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched the latest epidemic action plan for mandatory acceleration of vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's latest epidemic action plan for epidemic resumption of work Weekly Tracking (September 11)\"),<b>If the above two measures have a significant effect on improving the epidemic in the future, it will help ease growth concerns and provide conditions for rising interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The second is inflation (September 14). The August CPI data released in the middle of the month also has an important impact on reduction expectations and interest rate trends.</b>The impact of the short-term escalation of the epidemic is two levels. On the one hand, it may once again drag down the repair of the supply chain and lead to tight supply. For example, the continued escalation of the epidemic in some Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam has affected local production, but on the other hand, it will also cause demand. For example, we have recently noticed that high-frequency travel and consumption indicators have weakened, not to mention that commodity consumption, which has surged due to fiscal stimulus, has also fallen from its high point.<b>Therefore, the final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of supply and demand</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, we have recently noticed that the supply chain (such as the delivery time of PMI in August), inventory (nominal terminal consumer goods inventory in July and PMI inventory in August), and capacity utilization (especially the cars with the most acute contradiction between supply and demand) have all appeared. There are signs of improvement, and based on the experience of the last round of epidemic,<b>During the escalation of the epidemic, the main impact is delivery time rather than greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure from April to May was mainly due to the resonance of multiple structural factors such as demand stimulus and weather chips.</p><p>The current market consensus expectation is that inflation will continue to fall month-on-month in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase the market's pressure on the Fed to reduce volumes and rise interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early reduction has basically been eliminated, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark scenario</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole meeting change the pace of reduction?\", \"Eight questions and eight answers about QE reduction, August 16-August 22, 2021\"). With only two meetings left in September and early November before the end of the year, it is not impossible to pave the way for a fine-tuning statement in September, not to mention that the September interest rate meeting also has updated economic data and dot plots and other information. Therefore, it is still a time worthy of special attention.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices, such as Treasury Bond interest rates, a small change in expectations is sufficient, rather than a substantial change</b>This is the case with the experience in 2013.</p><p>In our recently published special report \"The\" Mystery \"of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates\", we mentioned that since the epidemic and all previous periods in history when real interest rates have been significantly negative,<b>High liquidity is a major and even the most critical factor</b>。 If quantitatively measured by the M2 indicator, the real interest rate has about 130bp upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The fourth is fiscal policy and the debt ceiling. The second half of September is a key node for the switch between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and fiscal policies such as the 550 billion infrastructure and the 3.5 trillion spending plan. Its potential impact is even greater than monetary policy or the epidemic.</b>For example, after the Senate returns from vacation on September 15, it can begin to negotiate and discuss the details of the 3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? August 9 ~ August 15, 2021\"), and there will be a clearer picture of whether tax increases will actually be involved. If progress goes smoothly, the superimposed 550 billion infrastructure plan is likely to be passed, which is expected to significantly boost interest rates and the US dollar, but tax increases may suppress sentiment in the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be the focus of follow-up attention</b>。 Treasury Secretary Yellen once again urged Congress last week to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, and the current emergency measures of the Treasury Department will be exhausted in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. There is a high probability that the two parties will find a compromise solution. Historically, the actual impact on the market is not great.<b>But what is more critical is the implicit impact behind the liberalization of the debt ceiling on the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance, that is, the supply of bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current TGA account has dropped from US $1.6 trillion in early February to the current US $200 billion, which is also a new low since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The re-increase of TGA accounts not only means that the stage of releasing liquidity from April to May has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates and the US dollar than the monetary policy reduction operation with only incremental reduction deserves special attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"kevinclyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Key variables in overseas markets in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKey variables in overseas markets in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Kevin策略研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-13 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again, US Treasury yields have risen steadily, the U.S. stock market has fallen from its high level, and the U.S. dollar has strengthened, driving gold to plummet. The background of these changes, as we suggested in our September monthly report, is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation in which there is no obvious turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations, but policy variables may increase, superimposed on the previous accumulation. There are more gains, so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates. Looking ahead to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are more important:</p><p><b>► Epidemic</b>, changes in the epidemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repairs, but also affect the direction of interest rates.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the subsequent recovery of economic activities and employment, and it also corresponds to the basic bottom of real interest rates.</b></p><p><b>► Inflation</b>The August CPI data will be released in the middle of the month (September 14), which will also have an important impact on reduction expectations and interest rate trends. The final price pressure is actually the result of the comprehensive influence of both supply and demand.<b>The last round of epidemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stage, we saw improvements in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction is basically eliminated, but the official launch in December is still the baseline scenario.<b>It is not impossible to pave the way for a fine-tuning statement in September, not to mention that the September interest rate meeting also has updated economic data, dot plots and other information.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal policy and the debt ceiling</b>, the second half of September is a key node for the switch between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and fiscal policies such as 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion spending plans. The potential impact is even greater than monetary policy or the epidemic.<b>The increase in TGA accounts again not only means that the stage of sharp decline to release liquidity since April and May has passed, but also means that the marginal increase in bond supply, which may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates and the US dollar than just incremental reductions. Reduced QE reductions.</b></p><p><b>This week's focus: Several key variables that may affect the market in September: epidemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal</b></p><p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again. US Treasury yields have risen steadily, the U.S. stock market has fallen from its high level, and the U.S. dollar has strengthened, driving gold to plummet. These changes are consistent with the September monthly allocation report \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021)\" published by us at the beginning of the month.-9) The information prompted in \"Short-term Turning to Risk Prevention\" is basically the same.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background of these changes is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation in which there is no obvious turnaround or catalyst in global growth expectations (the impact of the epidemic continues, and China's growth is accelerating and slowing down), but policy variables may increase (Federal Reserve FOMC, U.S. debt ceiling and fiscal spending), superimposed on the previous accumulation of more gains (September is the weakest month for U.S. stocks throughout the year), so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from changes in interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking forward to the remaining two weeks of September, there are several important changes that deserve close attention:</p><p><b>The first is the epidemic. Changes in the epidemic will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repairs, but also affect the direction of interest rates.</b>If we analyze in (\"Reviewing the Rhythm and Impact of the Last Round of Epidemic in the United States from August 30 to September 5, 2021\") and (\"The\" Mystery \"of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates\"), the last round from early October to The epidemic at the beginning of this year has many similarities and worth learning from the current situation.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the rapid recovery of subsequent economic activities and employment. Although there is a certain time lag, it also corresponds to the basic bottom of real interest rates</b>。</p><p>The latest recent change is that the epidemic situation in the United States has shown certain signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched the latest epidemic action plan for mandatory acceleration of vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's latest epidemic action plan for epidemic resumption of work Weekly Tracking (September 11)\"),<b>If the above two measures have a significant effect on improving the epidemic in the future, it will help ease growth concerns and provide conditions for rising interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The second is inflation (September 14). The August CPI data released in the middle of the month also has an important impact on reduction expectations and interest rate trends.</b>The impact of the short-term escalation of the epidemic is two levels. On the one hand, it may once again drag down the repair of the supply chain and lead to tight supply. For example, the continued escalation of the epidemic in some Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam has affected local production, but on the other hand, it will also cause demand. For example, we have recently noticed that high-frequency travel and consumption indicators have weakened, not to mention that commodity consumption, which has surged due to fiscal stimulus, has also fallen from its high point.<b>Therefore, the final price pressure is actually the result of the combined influence of supply and demand</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, we have recently noticed that the supply chain (such as the delivery time of PMI in August), inventory (nominal terminal consumer goods inventory in July and PMI inventory in August), and capacity utilization (especially the cars with the most acute contradiction between supply and demand) have all appeared. There are signs of improvement, and based on the experience of the last round of epidemic,<b>During the escalation of the epidemic, the main impact is delivery time rather than greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure from April to May was mainly due to the resonance of multiple structural factors such as demand stimulus and weather chips.</p><p>The current market consensus expectation is that inflation will continue to fall month-on-month in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase the market's pressure on the Fed to reduce volumes and rise interest rates.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early reduction has basically been eliminated, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark scenario</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole meeting change the pace of reduction?\", \"Eight questions and eight answers about QE reduction, August 16-August 22, 2021\"). With only two meetings left in September and early November before the end of the year, it is not impossible to pave the way for a fine-tuning statement in September, not to mention that the September interest rate meeting also has updated economic data and dot plots and other information. Therefore, it is still a time worthy of special attention.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices, such as Treasury Bond interest rates, a small change in expectations is sufficient, rather than a substantial change</b>This is the case with the experience in 2013.</p><p>In our recently published special report \"The\" Mystery \"of Continued Negative Real Interest Rates\", we mentioned that since the epidemic and all previous periods in history when real interest rates have been significantly negative,<b>High liquidity is a major and even the most critical factor</b>。 If quantitatively measured by the M2 indicator, the real interest rate has about 130bp upside.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The fourth is fiscal policy and the debt ceiling. The second half of September is a key node for the switch between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and fiscal policies such as the 550 billion infrastructure and the 3.5 trillion spending plan. Its potential impact is even greater than monetary policy or the epidemic.</b>For example, after the Senate returns from vacation on September 15, it can begin to negotiate and discuss the details of the 3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? August 9 ~ August 15, 2021\"), and there will be a clearer picture of whether tax increases will actually be involved. If progress goes smoothly, the superimposed 550 billion infrastructure plan is likely to be passed, which is expected to significantly boost interest rates and the US dollar, but tax increases may suppress sentiment in the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be the focus of follow-up attention</b>。 Treasury Secretary Yellen once again urged Congress last week to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, and the current emergency measures of the Treasury Department will be exhausted in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. There is a high probability that the two parties will find a compromise solution. Historically, the actual impact on the market is not great.<b>But what is more critical is the implicit impact behind the liberalization of the debt ceiling on the TGA account of the Ministry of Finance, that is, the supply of bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The current TGA account has dropped from US $1.6 trillion in early February to the current US $200 billion, which is also a new low since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The re-increase of TGA accounts not only means that the stage of releasing liquidity from April to May has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rates and the US dollar than the monetary policy reduction operation with only incremental reduction deserves special attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml\">Kevin策略研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167306263","content_text":"近期，海外市场再度出现一些波动，美债利率稳中有升，美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌。出现这些变化的背景，如我们在9月月报中提示的，主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂、但政策变数却可能增多的局面，叠加此前积累了较多涨幅，因此不排除出现波动，而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。展望9月余下两周多，几个变化较为重要：\n►疫情，疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复，同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。\n►通胀，月中（9月14日）将公布8月CPI数据对减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。最终价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果，上轮疫情升级影响的主要是交付时间而并非产能利用率。前期我们看到产能、库存都有改善。\n►FOMC会议（9月21~22日），提前减量的风险基本被排除，但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形。9月微调声明铺垫也并非没有可能，更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息。\n►财政政策与债务上限，9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点，潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着4~5月份以来大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去，也意味着债券供给的边际增多，这对流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响可能要大于仅是增量减少的QE减量。\n本周焦点：9月可能影响市场的几个关键变量：疫情、通胀、美联储、财政\n近期，海外市场再度出现一些波动，美债利率稳中有升，美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌，这些变化与我们在月初发表的9月配置月报《海外资产配置月报（2021-9）短期转向防风险》中所提示信息基本一致。\n\n出现这些变化的背景，主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂（疫情影响仍在持续、中国增长呈现加速放缓态势）、但政策变数却可能增多的局面（美联储FOMC、美国债务上限和财政支出），叠加此前积累了较多涨幅（9月是美股全年来看最弱的月份），因此不排除出现波动，而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。\n因此展望9月余下的两周多时间，有几个变化较为重要，值得密切关注：\n一是疫情，疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。如果我们在（《重温美国上轮疫情的节奏与影响2021年8月30日~9月5日》）和（《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》）中分析，上一轮10月初到今年初的疫情与当下有很多相似和值得借鉴之处，疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业的快速修复，虽然存在一定时滞，同时也是对应着实际利率基本见底。\n近期最新的变化是，美国疫情出现一定筑顶迹象，新增、重症和死亡都是如此，同时白宫也最新推出了强制性加快疫苗接种最新的疫情行动计划（《解析白宫最新疫情行动计划疫情复工周度追踪（9月11日）》），如果上述措施双管齐下对未来疫情改善产生显著效果的话，那将有助于缓解增长担忧并为利率上行提供条件。\n\n二是通胀（9月14日），月中将公布的8月CPI数据对于减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。短期疫情的升级影响是两个层面的，一方面可能会再度拖累供应链的修复进而导致供应紧张，例如部分东南亚国家如越南疫情的持续升级已经影响了当地生产，但另一方面也会造成需求的回落，例如近期我们注意到高频的出行和消费指标都有所趋弱，更不用说因为财政刺激激增的商品消费也已经从高点回落，因此最终的价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果。\n所幸的是，近期我们注意到供应链（如8月PMI的交付时间）、库存（7月名义终端消费品库存和8月PMI库存）、产能利用率（特别是供需矛盾最为尖锐的汽车）都出现了改善迹象，而且根据上一轮疫情的经验，疫情升级期间影响的主要是交付时间而并非影响更大的产能利用率，4~5月的价格压力主要是由于需求刺激叠加天气芯片等多重结构性因素的共振。\n目前的市场一致预期是8月通胀环比会继续回落（0.4%vs． 7月的0.5%），如果再度超预期的话可能会加大市场对于美联储减量和利率上行的压力。\n\n三是FOMC会议（9月21~22日），经历了近期一系列的变化后，提前减量的风险基本被排除，但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形（《Jackson Hole会议改变减量节奏了么？》、《关于QE减量的八问八答2021年8月16日~8月22日》）。在年底前仅剩9月和11月初两次会议的背景下，9月微调声明做出铺垫也并非没有可能，更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息，因此依然是一个值得重点关注的时点。\n更重要的是，对于资产价格如国债利率而言，预期上的微小变化已经足够，并非需要等到实质性的改变，2013年的经验即是如此。\n我们在近期发表的专题报告《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》中，提到疫情以来，以及历史上历次实际利率大幅为负的时期，高流动性一个主要甚至是最关键的因素。如果以M2指标量化测算的话，实际利率大约有130bp的上行空间。\n\n四是财政政策与债务上限，9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点，其潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。例如，9月15日参议院休假回来以后，就可以着手就3.5万亿支出计划的细节做出协商讨论（《美国距新一轮基建和刺激还有多远？2021年8月9日~8月15日》），而其实是否会涉及到加税也将会有更为清晰的图景。如果进展顺利，叠加5500亿基建计划大概率通过，对于利率和美元预计都将起到明显提振效果，但加税可能会压制美股市场情绪。\n另外，债务上限也将是后续关注的焦点。财长耶伦上周再度敦促国会尽快提高债务上限，当前财政部的紧急措施将会在10月耗尽。债务上限本身我们到不太担心，两党大概率会找到妥协方案，从历史上来看，对市场的实际影响也不大，但更为关键的是债务上限放开后背后隐含的对于财政部TGA账户也即债券供给的影响。\n\n目前TGA账户已经从2月初的1.6万亿美元降至当前的2000亿美元，这也是2019年9月以来的新低，已经不太可能进一步回落。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着从4~5月份以来TGA账户大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去，也意味着债券供给的边际增多，这可能对于流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响要大于仅仅是增量减少的货币政策减量操作，值得重点关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888185423,"gmtCreate":1631457276962,"gmtModify":1676530550963,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888185423","repostId":"2166303116","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2166303116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631450460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166303116?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-12 20:41","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"What are the most popular funds among Christians?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166303116","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":" 今天周末，Z哥还是照例给大家分享一些关于基金投资方面的思考。很多人都问Z哥，现在到底可以买哪些基金？通过这个数据，我们大概可以了解最受基民喜爱的基金到底是哪些？基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的“买者自负”原则，在投资者做出投资决策后，基金运营状况、基金份额上市交易价格波动与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资者自行负责。","content":"<p><div>Brother Z is the best in financial management. This weekend, Brother Z will share with you some thoughts on fund investment as usual. Since the launch of the column, there are indeed many friends around who pay attention to the fund. Many people ask Brother Z, which funds can I buy now? (Image source: Photo Network) However, when they saw Brother Z's \"firm offer combination\", they didn't seem to be interested much. One of the most important reasons is that the net value of these funds has increased greatly this year. If you buy them now, you are likely to buy them at a high level. On the contrary, Brother Z's combination of \"Facing the Wall and Thinking about Mistakes\" seems to be more...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What are the most popular funds among Christians?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat are the most popular funds among Christians?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 20:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Brother Z is the best in financial management. This weekend, Brother Z will share with you some thoughts on fund investment as usual. Since the launch of the column, there are indeed many friends around who pay attention to the fund. Many people ask Brother Z, which funds can I buy now? (Image source: Photo Network) However, when they saw Brother Z's \"firm offer combination\", they didn't seem to be interested much. One of the most important reasons is that the net value of these funds has increased greatly this year. If you buy them now, you are likely to buy them at a high level. On the contrary, Brother Z's combination of \"Facing the Wall and Thinking about Mistakes\" seems to be more...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b316935034311b351e6e3b3c20c27e8","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2166303116","content_text":"Z哥 理财不二牛 \n 今天周末，Z哥还是照例给大家分享一些关于基金投资方面的思考。\n 栏目推出以来，身边关注基金的朋友也确实不少。很多人都问Z哥，现在到底可以买哪些基金？\n\n （图片来源：摄图网）\n 不过，当他们看了Z哥的“实盘组合”之后，似乎感兴趣的并不多。其中一个很重要的原因就是，这些基金的净值在今年都有很大的涨幅，现在去买，很可能会买在高位。相反，Z哥的“面壁思过”组合，似乎还更受欢迎一些。\n 那么，现在到底哪些基金，是基民们最喜爱的呢？\n 其实，要回答这个问题也很简单。现在，很多基民喜欢在支付宝平台上购买基金，这是这两年形成的新趋势，因为支付宝这个平台做得太大了。从以前买余额宝，过度到现在大量基民通过支付宝买基金，也就是这一两年时间的事情，最主要的原因是方便。\n 而支付宝上有一个功能，随时会公布基金的“周销量TOP”，也就是销量排行榜。通过这个数据，我们大概可以了解最受基民喜爱的基金到底是哪些？\n 虽然Z哥还没有在支付宝上买过基金，但周末Z哥看了一下支付宝发现，本周销量冠军是葛兰管理的中欧医疗健康混合C，购买人数超过30万人。排名第二的是天弘永利债券B，这只债券基金，收益稳定，但并非Z哥喜爱的品种，这里不多说。\n 而排名第三的，则是大名鼎鼎的刘彦春管理的景顺长城新兴成长混合，超20万人购买。排名第四的是“坤坤”张坤管理的易方达蓝筹精选，也有超过10万人购买。\n 此外，排名靠前的还有刘彦春管理的景顺长城鼎益混合（超6万人购买）；谢治宇管理的兴全合润混合（超6万人购买）；以及周蔚文管理的中欧新趋势混合（超5万人购买）。\n 从这个数据不难看出，通过支付宝平台购买的基金，最多的还是市场中顶流基金经理管理的基金，这和基金今年的业绩情况，似乎没有太直接的关系。而Z哥平时关注的那些业绩非常好的基金，却很少受到普通基民的青睐。\n 说实话，这些基金，虽然从过往业绩，还有基金经理的能力来看，都是很好的，不然也不可能去管理那么大规模的基金。但是在今年的市场环境下，明星产品规模的大幅增长，不但不能提升产品的投资收益业绩，反而可能会加大基金经理的管理难度。\n\n Z哥又用WIND统计了今年中报，基金净申购额的排名，其实情况也差不多。偏股型混合基金中（剔除今年新成立的基金），净申购额排名第一的依然是张坤的易方达蓝筹精选，净申购61.68亿份，而刘彦春的景顺长城新兴成长净申购60亿份，谢治宇的兴全合润净申购46亿份；葛兰的中欧医疗健康混合A净申购32.69亿份，中欧医疗健康混合C净申购20亿。\n 相对而言，广发基金的中生代基金经理林英睿管理的广发价值领先算是一个另类，该基金今年上半年的净申购额达到44.3亿份，排进了混合基金的净申购额前十。\n 相反，我们再看看其他那些今年业绩排名顶尖的基金，他们的净申购情况是如何的。\n 比如信诚新兴产业混合，今年以来收益102%，排名第一，但上半年净申购额只有3.3亿份，依然是规模较小的基金。\n 同样今年收益超过100%的长城行业轮动，今年上半年净申购额也只有1.48亿份。而另一只今年收益顶尖的金鹰民族新兴混合，今年上半年的净申购额只有6000多万份。\n 总结下来，今年最能赚钱的基金，却并没有帮多少基民赚到钱。并不是基金经理不够努力，而是基民们不愿意“上车”。\n Z哥觉得，现在基民买基金，还是存在一些误区，这个误区可能也和炒股是一样的。\n 误区一\n 买低不买高，买跌不买涨。\n 总觉得基金净值涨高了，风险就一定比净值低的风险大。看基金的净值曲线，就像看股价走势图一样，跌到下面的才安全。\n 误区二\n 羊群效应。\n 总觉得大家都买的，就一定是好基金，只要跟着明星基金经理走，问题就不大。但是，在今年的行情下，追星似的投基，效果并不理想，浪费时间，也浪费了今年的行情。只愿意买别人推荐的热门基金，不考虑自身情况的盲目跟从，并不一定能带来期待的投资收益，反而可能是一种比较危险的投资行为。\n 误区三\n 对长期价值投资的误解。\n 很多股民，如今改变身份，摇身一变成了基民。似乎只要买基金，长期持有不做调整，就坚守了长期价值投资理念。但实际上，Z哥认为这是对长期价值投资理念的误解。长期价值投资，并不等于“躺平”，而是通过不断学习，努力提升自己的能力范围，该调整投资思路的时候，还是要积极应对。\n 最后，Z哥给大家汇报一下目前“投基Z世代”推出的两个组合目前的收益情况供大家参考。\n 其中，“Z哥实盘”组合推出以来（9月2日创建）收益5.46%，跑赢同期大盘。\n\n\n\n 另外一个“面壁思过”的模拟组合（9月6日创建），创建以来略微亏了0.32%。当然还是那句话，投资基金，不必过于看重短期业绩。\n\n\n\n （风险提示：权益基金属于高风险品种，投资需谨慎。本资料不作为任何法律文件，资料中的所有信息或所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议，本人不就资料中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。在任何情况下，本人不对任何人因使用本资料中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。我国基金运作时间较短，不能反映股市发展的所有阶段。定投过往业绩不代表未来表现，投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。\n 投资者在投资基金之前，请仔细阅读基金的《基金合同》、《招募说明书》等基金法律文件，全面认识基金的风险收益特征和产品特性，充分考虑自身的风险承受能力，在了解产品或者服务情况、听取适当性意见的基础上，理性判断市场，根据自身的投资目标、期限、投资经验、资产状况等因素谨慎做出投资决策，独立承担投资风险。市场有风险，入市需谨慎。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的“买者自负”原则，在投资者做出投资决策后，基金运营状况、基金份额上市交易价格波动与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资者自行负责。）\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：杨红卜","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.6,"BABA":0.64,"QNETCN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888185278,"gmtCreate":1631457253094,"gmtModify":1676530550955,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888185278","repostId":"1195505573","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1195505573","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注中国基金报，即时获取深度理财资讯","home_visible":1,"media_name":"中国基金报","id":"6","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200"},"pubTimestamp":1631437459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195505573?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-12 17:04","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Eight major fund managers: In the last four months of this year, can Hong Kong stocks \"turn over\"?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195505573","media":"中国基金报","summary":"市场何时能够企稳，哪些板块更具投资价值？后市又会面临哪些风险？","content":"<p><div>This year's Hong Kong stock market finally broke the curse of \"five poor\", but unexpectedly ushered in a situation of \"six poor, seven absolute and eight unable to turn over\". After the decline in June came as scheduled, Hong Kong stocks ushered in a dark moment in July. The Hang Seng Index and the China Enterprise Index fell by 9.9% and 13.4% respectively. The Hang Seng Technology Index recorded its largest single-day decline (7.97%) since the establishment of the index on July 27), and the technology sector \"returned to before liberation overnight.\" In August, Hong Kong stocks still failed to reverse their fate, and the Hang Seng Index barely held the 25,000-point mark. Entering September, Hong Kong stocks still fluctuated repeatedly, and technology stocks pulled back again after a short rebound. The market...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Eight major fund managers: In the last four months of this year, can Hong Kong stocks \"turn over\"?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEight major fund managers: In the last four months of this year, can Hong Kong stocks \"turn over\"?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/6\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b2c79a68beb44c7bc06ad7210091200);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中国基金报 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-12 17:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>This year's Hong Kong stock market finally broke the curse of \"five poor\", but unexpectedly ushered in a situation of \"six poor, seven absolute and eight unable to turn over\". After the decline in June came as scheduled, Hong Kong stocks ushered in a dark moment in July. The Hang Seng Index and the China Enterprise Index fell by 9.9% and 13.4% respectively. The Hang Seng Technology Index recorded its largest single-day decline (7.97%) since the establishment of the index on July 27), and the technology sector \"returned to before liberation overnight.\" In August, Hong Kong stocks still failed to reverse their fate, and the Hang Seng Index barely held the 25,000-point mark. Entering September, Hong Kong stocks still fluctuated repeatedly, and technology stocks pulled back again after a short rebound. The market...</p><p><a href=\"None\">Web link</a></div></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6172c5aa9b31ecf02a96b4bc0dac18fd","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195505573","content_text":"今年的港股市场，终于打破“五穷”魔咒，却意外迎来“六穷七绝八翻不了身”的局面。\n6月的下跌如期而至后，7月港股迎来暗黑时刻，恒指和国企指数分别下跌9.9%和13.4%，恒生科技指数则在7 月27 日创下指数成立以来的单日最大跌幅（7.97%），科技板块更是“一夜回到解放前”。\n8月，港股依然未能逆转命运，恒指勉强守住25000点大关。进入9月，港股依然反复震荡，科技股经过短暂的反弹再度回调，市场何时能够企稳，哪些板块更具投资价值？后市又会面临哪些风险？\n对此，中国基金报记者专访了易方达中概互联基金经理范冰、汇添富基金管理股份有限公司香港子公司助理总经理孙宇飞、富国中国中小盘基金经理张峰、嘉实基金董事总经理兼价值风格投资总监张金涛、国泰基金国际业务投资总监吴向军、景顺长城大中华基金经理周寒颖、万家瑞兴灵活配置基金经理刘宏达、融通核心价值基金经理张婷，来共同把脉港股今年最后四个月的表现。\n\n易方达中概互联基金经理范冰：2018年港交所改革上市制度以来，港股市场的生态环境发生了明显变化，成长风格的新经济公司占比已经超过传统经济企业，未来对港股估值水平的研究，应该更加聚焦在具体行业和赛道。\n\n汇添富基金管理股份有限公司香港子公司助理总经理孙宇飞：后面4个月港股会逐步恢复，基于目前估值水平跟总体企业利润的预测水平来说有反弹的基础。\n\n富国基金总经理助理、富国基金海外权益投资部总经理、富国中国中小盘基金经理张峰：今年最后四个月可能是港股一个重要底部形成的时间，核心因素一是互联网方面的政策，二是伴随中国经济增速放缓，国家是否会出台一些刺激经济的措施。\n\n嘉实基金董事总经理、价值风格投资总监张金涛：我们特别关注三类机会预计接下来，A股和港股市场仍将呈现震荡格局，结构性机会仍然比较丰富，但是市场会对估值和盈利质量更加苛刻。\n\n国泰基金国际业务投资总监吴向军：中长期来看，随着中概股回归和新经济产业巨头在港股的上市，公募、险资、年金等长线资金持续南下流入增配港股。这类新经济科技公司在当下和未来，都是中国经济重要支柱，也将成为港股长期投资的重要主题。\n景顺长城大中华基金经理周寒颖：围绕政策监管，未来互联网投资逻辑将发生重大变化：是否正确的价值观、是否产生社会正外部性、是否为产业链实现1+1>2共赢将成为共识。\n\n万家瑞兴灵活配置混合基金基金经理刘宏达：港股现在无论从历史纵向对比还是全球横向对比，都具有较高的配置价值。\n\n融通核心价值基金经理张婷：港股市场已经出现了筑底企稳的信号，未来复苏的可能大于继续调整的可能。\n多因素引发港股调整\n港股投资机会逐渐显现\n中国基金报记者：从6月到8月，港股经历了连续三个月的下挫，尤其是7月跌幅巨大，目前市场是否已经企稳？哪些指标显示市场复苏或还可能继续调整？\n吴向军：6至8月港股波动巨大，原因在于产业政策集中调整引发市场担忧。撇开短期涨跌，从中长维度来看，港股投资生态正发生着积极变化。六月初，恒指历史最大改革的第一批调整名单正式生效，标志着港股投资生态积极转变的正式开启。市场预计将有更多新经济领域明星个股陆续纳入，科技、消费、医疗多领域新经济行业的覆盖度将进一步提升。新经济占比的提升、产业结构的变迁将吸引越来越多全球资金配置港股，提高其交投活跃度。\n张峰：经历这几个月的下挫，港股大多数的下跌动能已经得到了释放，可能还存在继续往下的空间，假如再下跌一些的话，可能是较好的进入时点，指标股、大盘蓝筹等股票如果跌到上次低点附近，可能形成一个三次探底，从估值角度来说也比较有吸引力。\n张金涛：最近在政策进一步规范引导下，港股市场的一些板块调整幅度已经较充分，可挖掘的投资机会逐渐显现。通过选准个股，更侧重争取来自企业业绩增长带来的投资回报。实际上，从历史估值波动来看，港股比A股波动要小很多，特别适合做长期价值投资。\n刘宏达：港股市场6-8月份的下跌，主要体现了海内外资金对于国内宏观月度数据下行的谨慎情绪。根据我们对港股市场近10年历史统计，每次熊市恒生指数从高点最大跌幅25-32%，非熊市调整幅度不会超过20%，2021年恒生指数从2月份到最近低点累计下跌20%，但目前的国内宏观经济和货币环境并不支持港股走入熊市，我们倾向判断，港股已进入底部的配置区域。\n孙宇飞：从6月到8月，经历过三个月的下跌，目前来看市场已经大概率企稳了，有几个指标可以看出：首先这一波的下跌在某种程度上已经体现政策对行业基本面变化相应的影响；其次是市场对美联储的货币政策有比较明确的预期；再次是南下资金开始出现净流入。因此目前我们看到市场出现企稳的迹象，如果后面宏观方面没有超预期的负面数据，或再出台对基本面产生影响的政策，市场信心会逐步恢复，海外资金及南下资金也会随着市场信心的恢复继续流入，也有助于与市场的企稳。\n张婷：港股市场已经出现了筑底企稳的信号，未来复苏的可能大于继续调整的可能。以下指标显示出港股市场来可能会筑底反弹：\n第一、 港股盈利预期增速当前显示出回暖的迹象。受到反垄断政策及“双减文件”的影响，彭博数据显示市场对恒生指数未来12个月的盈利预期增速大幅回调至-14.46%，已触及08年次贷危机以来的最低值。8月以来盈利预期增速已小幅回升，这显示市场对未来恒生指数成长性信心已有所恢复，香港市场有望回暖。\n第二、剔除新纳入个股的影响，恒生指数市净率一度跌破2003年以来的历史最低值。恒指估值在8月末一度跌至历史最低，已接近破净水平。如果剔除2020年9月新纳入的高成长性的新经济股影响，8月末恒生指数的市盈率已经跌至-1倍标准差的历史底部。\n第三、指标显示市场恐慌情绪已有所修复。从历史数据来看，衡量市场恐慌程度的恒指波幅从高位回落，恒生指数通常随之企稳反弹。当前恒指波幅已开始小幅回落，这说明市场对政策不确定性最担忧的时刻可能已经过去。未来随着市场情绪转暖，港股有望筑底反弹。\n美联储政策和疫情成为影响市场核心因素\n中国基金报：您如何看待今年最后四个月的市场？影响行情的核心因素有哪些？\n吴向军：2021年下半年包括港股在内的全球资本市场的最大交易主题将是美联储政策动向和新冠疫苗推进情况，同时港股还需要密切关注包括互联网在内的行业监管动向以及中国宏观基本面的变化。\n中国方面首先是监管维度，超出预期的监管力度可能引发有关多个行业从严监管的担忧，并导致资金的离场以及部分行业的基本面重估。其次是宏观方面，国内经济整体恢复态势延续但增长动能趋缓，预计下半年出口及地产将有下行风险，社融增速将延续下降趋势，但回落速度可能边际放缓。\n张金涛：首先，中国经济增速将从上半年的高点回落，逐渐回到正常增长水平；与此同时，海外经济将继续从疫情中复苏，尽管有疫情干扰，但世界经济复苏的趋势没有发生根本性改变，随着疫苗的普及，新冠病毒的影响将逐渐弱化。\n在总体向好的态势中，我们也需要看到经济复苏中的一些隐忧，总体而言，经济逐渐回归潜在增速，结构分化严重，新兴产业特别是半导体、新能源及新能源车、创新药、物联网等行业的增长较快。我们预计接下来，A股和港股市场仍将呈现震荡格局，结构性机会仍然比较丰富，但是市场会对估值和盈利质量更加苛刻。\n张峰：今年最后四个月可能是港股一个重要底部形成的时间，核心因素一是互联网方面的政策，二是伴随中国经济增速放缓，国家是否会出台一些刺激经济的措施，比如基建方面的措施、货币政策，或者社融增速的见底回升，这些都是很重要的指标。\n刘宏达：我们认为，今年剩余时间市场将处于磨底状态。\n孙宇飞：对于后面4个月的市场，我们觉得是港股会逐步恢复，基于目前估值水平跟总体企业利润的预测水平来说，是有一个反弹的基础，就是逐步走好的基础的。\n核心因素包括: 1）政策方面，主要指内地和海外的货币政策，以及内地出台的行业政策；2）内地总体经济运行的情况 ；3）PPI传导到CPI的路径；4）美联储的货币政策，美联储定调量化宽松的紧缩；5）全球疫情的发展情况，新的变种病毒的出现，对东南亚新兴市场国家影响很大，进而影响全球的供应链。\n张婷：我们认为今年后四个月市场仍将筑底企稳，值得关注的因素包括港股盈利、美联储Taper的节奏以及国内的反垄断政策。\n第一、影响行情的核心因素一是港股下半年的盈利情况。虽然下半年国内经济面临更大的压力，但相对较高的物价水平对于上市公司盈利会有显著支撑。通常情况之下，当经济下行期时企业盈利都会面临较大的压力，过去几轮经济下行的过程中，2017年是唯一企业盈利保持高位增长的年份，这与当时PPI高位震荡有较强的关系。本轮上市公司盈利可能也会在相对较高的通胀水平的影响下保持较高增速，这也将是下半年市场的重要支撑。\n第二、影响行情的核心因素二是美联储Taper的节奏。目前市场预期美联储将于四季度开始Taper的操作，在此期间美股有望维持平稳。但美联储缩减购债所带来的负面冲击更多地影响了海外新兴市场，这是由于在缩减购债期间资金流入新兴市场的速度放缓甚至下降，这就使新兴市场表现偏弱。新兴市场指数如港股和A股面临一定的波动风险。\n第三、影响行情的核心因素三是反垄断政策的持续推出。反垄断政策的间歇性出台，对交易层面仍有影响。就目前形势发展来看，市场可能仍然会对于政策有阶段性反应，这在交易层面会带来较大的压力，相关公司股价存在继续下行的风险，另一方面对于政策的不确定性也将提升市场的波动性。\n范冰：历史上看，进入第四季度后，市场风格偏向防守，投资者风险偏好降低，全球股市继续依靠估值扩张维系的概率不大，将进入靠盈利比拼性价比的阶段。下半年宽基指数层面的大机会不多，更多的在结构层面的机会。性价比来自：a)估值基本维持稳定 +盈利确定性，b)估值大幅下杀出安全边际 + 历史业绩稳定。\n低估值价值股、消费医药科技成长股具备看好\n中国基金报：下半年您的投资策略如何？看好哪些行业板块、细分领域的投资机会？为什么？\n吴向军：中长期来看，随着大量的优质中概回归、新经济比重提高、南下资金逐渐加码，与A股存在强互补性的港股仍然值得期待。港股的基本面和资金面仍在向好发展，随着更多新经济独角兽和美股优质中概股回归后，港股的投资生态将愈发具有活力。接下来我们仍将密切关注全球新冠疫苗普及、经济复苏、港股改革、美联储政策及海外市场波动等情况，支持投资决策。\n周寒颖：预计会有更多的中国公司考虑首选港股上市，以及中概股回归香港上市。预计下半年美国退出量化宽松（TAPER）加上行业监管预期企稳，港股迎来较好的布局窗口。\n张金涛：我们会继续保持中高仓位运作。在经济结构性改革以及科技进步的大背景下，我们会持续优化组合结构，以消费、医药、科技、先进制造为主要布局领域，持续挖掘具有较高成长潜力的优质个股。\n我们特别关注三类机会：一是，优秀龙头企业在合理的价位上持续创造价值带来的赚取长期回报的机会；二是，行业发展过程中（包括新兴行业），有快速成长潜力的公司在由小变大的过程中被市场低估或误判带来的获取超额投资回报的机会；三是，价值股被低估带来的估值回归以及股息回报率的收益机会。不过针对第三种，一定要警惕港股存在的“估值陷阱”问题。整体而言，优质的可创造持续回报的股票尤其是价值股才是基金的压舱石。\n张峰：下半年一方面会关注一些相对低估值的价值股；另一方面，未来几个月港股不排除有再次探底的可能，如果港股出现了三次探底，接近上次的低点甚至短期下破这个低点，可能要为明年的行情做一些准备：对于今年跌幅较多的互联网、消费、生物制药一类成长股的投资机会，届时可能会是一个较好的进入时点。\n刘宏达：首先，我会选择公司和行业基本面向上的公司，这里面又分为两类公司，一类是市场认可公司优质的基本面，股价处于高位，但是我们认为公司的基本面向上的动能依然远超市场预期，盈利会进一步超预期上行，如周期品，半导体，新能源上游等；另外一类是公司基本面不错，但是估值被政策担忧压制明显，估值处于历史底部，我们认为随着担忧解除，这些公司长期配置机会显著，如互联网，软件，物业服务等行业。\n孙宇飞：整体策略来说，还是要立足企业基本面分析，挑选高质量的证券，把握市场脉络，作中长期投资布局。尤其经过今年以来的调整，很多优质的企业估值已经到相对合理的区间，是进行布局的好时机。\n未来可以关注的资产或行业：\n第一、看好长期具有成长空间的科技、消费、医药板块。科技板块方面，目前中国处于数字化转型的阶段，前段时间出台强化反垄断监管的政策，对行业的长期发展是有利的，避免资本的无需扩张，长期对整个科技行业是利好的；医药领域出台的政策也较多，是社会资源的重新分配，我们认为未来中国的创新药企业，还有创新药相关的产业链，包括医疗外包、医疗设备等，长期来讲是有比较好的机遇。特别是我们按照整个医药行业的发展来看，未来能为整个社会提供价值都是在创新领域。消费版块，长期看好消费升级带来的发展机遇，尤其在共同富裕的背景下，国民消费的需求与提高人民生活水平息息相关，优质的国产品牌的崛起、服务型消费产品、精神型消费产品均具有非常大的发展空间。\n第二、高端制造行业。高端制造包括基础材料、半导体、新能源、电子制造等，是国家重点支持的行业，具有巨大的发展空间，尤其有些处在“卡脖子”的地位，具备进口替代的技术的企业。\n张婷：下半年我们相对看多港股市场，当前港股已显现出部分筑底信号，且潜在下行空间较为有限，因此我们对于市场会保持相对乐观态度。细分领域的投资机会建议重点关注三类机会：\n第一、受益于国内基建预期升温，景气度边际改善的周期板块。\n第二、估值触底后迎来长期布局时间窗口的稀缺成长板块。\n第三、长线角度，关注短期受到政策影响比较严重的科技互联网行业。\n科技股要“优中选优”\n中国基金报：科技股此前经历大幅下挫，近期又开始有所表现，您如何看待这类资产目前的投资价值？还面临哪些风险？\n吴向军：我们长期看好新经济变革以及相关产业，包括互联网、新能源、芯片、医疗器械、生物科技、通信、等行业。此前经历大幅下挫，一些优质标的或已跌出性价比，而个股分化或进一步加大，投资者或可选择相关基金平滑个股风险。\n周寒颖：鉴于数字经济呈指数级增长，加强监管是全球趋势。中国互联网行业强监管时代开启。政府监管目的是规范平台更好为实体经济服务、为产业升级助力、增加消费者福利。在互联网巨头罚款落地和监管细则出来前市场情绪悲观，呈现净流出局面。围绕政策监管，未来互联网投资逻辑将发生重大变化：是否引导正确的价值观、是否产生社会正外部性、是否为产业链实现1+1>2共赢将成为共识。\n张金涛：对于高估值的板块，比如科技、医药、比较热门的互联网股票，这些是要去优中选优的。一些典型的港股、大的科技股，估值经过这波调整以后，回到了历史均值，如果市场不好，比如说美股再回调，可能还会再跟跌，但是跌的空间不大了。另外，这些个股的业绩仍有增长，拉长两、三年来看，如果估值还在历史均值水平的话，大概率能获得投资回报。\n至于港股科技互联网板块，此前市场上存在一定的恐慌情绪，我们认为等到政策落地之后仍有再布局的机会。\n张峰：科技股经过前期的下跌，不排除有短期继续在低位盘整的可能：可能还有更多政策出台，且今年互联网公司盈利增速普遍比较平淡。但是就像我们刚才说的，如果再次下探到上次低点，可能会是一个较好的进入时点。\n刘宏达：科技股是港股的核心资产之一，伴随着中国产业升级和对科技的投入，必将涌现出一批具有稀缺价值的优质新经济龙头企业，因此我们认为港股中的部分科技硬件公司和已经形成一定壁垒的互联网公司具有较高的长期投资价值。但这类公司在成长过程中会经历政策的扰动、竞争格局的演变、上下游供需格局的变化等潜在的风险，股价也会在波动中不断产生较好的建仓机会。\n孙宇飞：科技行业有很多细分领域，而每个领域的成长前景、竞争格局、以及面临的政策环境都是不一样的，不能一概而论。\n此前部分港股科技股经历大幅下跌，主要是由于强化反垄断监管政策出台，但政策本身限制了资本的无序扩张，对行业长远健康发展来说是积极的。2020年科技股估值的过分扩张，经过这一轮的大幅调整，目前科技股的股价基本上已经反映了基本面的变化，估值也回到相对合理的水平。\n针对科技板块，我们需要自下而上研究每一个公司的竞争优势、商业模式、公司管理层等方面，来评估其长期投资价值。我们认同某一些细分赛道具有较大的成长空间的，但我们也需要从中优中选优。\n面临的风险主要为：1）政策风险；2）行业竞争风险；3）中美博弈的不确定性。\n张婷：长期来看，互联网公司投资价值已经凸显。监管意图并非遏制互联网企业做大做强，未来政策大概率是倾向于规范行业发展而非颠覆行业。从美股的经验来看，互联网公司也面临过多次监管压力，但业务拆分的风险和概率较低，多数公司在规范后依然蓬勃发展，再次焕发生机。因此相对长线大资金可逐步介入互联网相关的公司。\n不过短期来看，该类资产仍可能面临一定波动风险。一是反垄断措施下相关个股在情绪面仍会受到负面影响。就目前形势发展来看，我们并不知道监管措施是否已经完全出台，这在交易层面会带来一定的波动。\n范冰：港股市场超过七成的市值是新经济板块，其中最具代表性的是科技行业。美国的纳斯达克100指数近期仍不断创出新高，中概科技龙头相对美国科技龙头出现深度折价，估值修复推动8月下旬以来港股科技股出现反弹。展望未来，数字经济仍然是未来经济发展的重要力量，境外中概股所代表的发展速度快、创新能力强的龙头公司，是中国竞争力不可或缺的部分。但目前难言反弹会变成反转，投资者仍然需要关注风险。\n港股估值处于历史中枢偏下位置\n要警惕“估值陷阱”\n中国基金报：港股一直有“投资洼地”之说，现在港股整体估值处于何种水平？未来哪些政策或市场因素会有助于港股市场的表现？\n吴向军：经历了短期快速下跌，港股进一步下行风险已较小，但政策影响难言是否彻底结束，预计港股波动仍会较大。中长期而言更需关注港股股市结构与A股的互补性，以及诸多在港上市的优质科技公司的表现。\n周寒颖：香港市场是一个离岸市场，70%以上的参与者是机构，其中欧美机构投资者又占了大部分。但香港市场对于欧美机构投资者来说，并不是一个必投的市场，很多是通过被动基金和亚洲基金、中国基金来部分投资。所以香港市场天然流动性非常高，当面临宏观风险之时，也就成为被首先撤离的那一部分市场，这就是所谓的“小三”市场的由来。但是2018年以来，港交所做了很多努力，改变市场标的的优质性。我觉得这个市场已经从一个Alpha市场，变成了Beta+Alpha，创造了大量的投资机会。\n张金涛：港股估值相对没有A股高，在其历史水平上现在也处于中枢偏下的位置，这是因为2019年、2020年都没涨。2020年遇上疫情，加上整体业绩增长有限，所以港股这边是合理偏低估值下面的业绩修复。在偏低估值加上业绩修复的阶段，通常港股会跑赢A股。且从全球流动性来说，我们觉得港股比A股整体还是有优势的。\n关于估值，投资者还是要警惕“估值陷阱”问题，在港股并不是估值低就一定好。港股市场是一个拥有深度价值投资机会的市场，港股在业绩不好的时候往往有一个很好价格，但被低估不意味着一定能涨，也有可能是“估值陷阱”。所以在港股投资时，要满足一些额外的约束条件才能买入并为组合贡献收益，例如在可见的时间维度内有持续的业绩改善的趋势。\n张峰：港股目前整体估值在11、12的水平，今年以来港股表现是比较平淡的，在全球范围内也比较落后，主要原因在于国家对于互联网行业的整治，使得一些权重股下挫幅度较大。整体来看，2019、2020年港股都显著跑输了A股。\n但从历史的角度来看，港股和A股给投资人带来的长期回报是比较接近的，所以港股存在一个补涨的机会，可能会在今年四季度和明年逐步展开。\n刘宏达：历史纵向对比来看，恒生指数交易在历史上22.7%分位和均值以下0.4倍标准差；横向对比来看，AH溢价指数已经达到143，接近历史上2015年的高点，与道琼斯工业指数、标普500、日经225、英国富时100、德国DAX等指数相比，恒生指数也处于偏离历史均值较大的位置。因此，港股现在无论从历史纵向对比还是全球横向对比，都具有较高的配置价值。\n孙宇飞：目前港股的估值处在历史底部水平，恒指的预测PE（彭博一致预期）12.3倍，横向比较全球股市也处于底部；但当中不同板块所处的历史分位数不同。\n未来有利因素主要包括：1）港股有很多优秀标的，中长期有投资价值。目前港股需要进一步提升、巩固投资者信心，所以政策方面对于市场经济和民营经济支持的表态，也有利于港股市场的企稳和回升；2） 港股通的扩容及美股中概股的回归，也有利于提升市场关注及行情的修复。\n张婷：纵向来看，9月8日港股的PE估值为11.37，位于均值以下的水平。PB估值为1.19，位于均值一倍标准差附近的水平。港股当前估值处于历史相对低位。\n横向来看，恒生指数和恒生国企指数在全球主要风险资产中估值排名靠后，港股确实仍是全球风险资产的估值洼地，估值较低且股息率较高，性价比优势突出。\n以下因素可能会成为市场的支持：\n第一是若未来反垄断政策出现明显的阶段性缓和信号，或者在反垄断政策密集性出台后迎来空窗期，港股有望持续回暖。\n第二是若下半年经济超预期强势，港股的盈利增速或将超出预期，这可能也将是年内市场上有力的支撑力量。\n第三是如果疫情得到有效控制，香港和内地恢复通关或全球出行恢复，那么香港经济将继续修复，支撑香港本地股的盈利及表现。\n第四是如果中美在关于贸易或其他方面取得进展，中美关系进一步缓和，有助于港股市场情绪的进一步修复。\n范冰：整体来看，港股市场整体的估值水平在过去5年平均值一倍标准差之下，处于合理区间。2018年以前，港股市场以传统经济企业为主，同时其中很多企业在A股和港股两地同时上市，H股相对对应的A股有较明显的折价。2018年港交所改革上市制度以来，港股市场的生态环境发生了明显变化，成长风格的新经济公司占比已经超过传统经济企业，未来对港股估值水平的研究，应该更加聚焦在具体行业和赛道。\n流动性、监管动向等成为最大风险点\n中国基金报：您认为，今年最后四个月港股市场还面临哪些风险？\n吴向军：美联储政策的转向将对全球各类资产走势产生影响，港股市场也将面临更大的外盘扰动以及潜在的海外流动性拐点。中国方面，在国内流动性并无明显转松的预期下，南下资金可能也会有所影响，从而导致港股整体资金面有一定压力。\n张金涛：今年港股的总体表现比预想的要弱一些，前期强势股的调整已经比较充分，按照投资原则去选，还是能选到不错的投资标的。下半年A股港股可能都有不错的布局机会。下半年的主要的投资风险仍然是行业监管产生的短期风险。\n张峰：未来四个月港股面临的主要风险可能是国家对于互联网行业的整治：比如是否会继续整治的态度以及可能出台的措施；同时伴随中国经济增速放缓，后续是否出台进一步的经济刺激政策。\n孙宇飞：今年最后四个月港股市场还面临的风险有：\n1）美联储货币政策： 港股受到海外的影响比较大，提前Taper或美联储释放收紧货币政策的信号，是可能出现的风险。目前，我们看到鲍威尔的基调相对鸽派，因此我们觉得货币政策风险相对可控。\n2）未来如果有行业指导建议，会造成行业格局的变化，从而影响风险偏好。\n3）近期PPI和CPI的大幅攀升，也需要关注通胀的风险。\n4）如果海外疫情进一步恶化，可能会引起全球经济增速放缓，不达预期。\n张婷：我们认为当前最主要的风险主要有一下两方面：\n一是监管政策的不确定性，8月30日的深改委会议上审议通过了《关于强化反垄断深入推进公平竞争政策实施的意见》，把反垄断和反不正当竞争放在了比较重要的位置，预计之后反垄断将会更加深入和常态化。需要注意细分领域监管政策的完善和监管漏洞的堵塞可能会加大后续市场的波动。\n其次需要关注美联储收紧可能对港股的影响。近期市场对于美联储收紧预期较高，如果未来收紧超预期，可能会出现海外资金的回流，并带来港股市场的波动。\n港股相比A股存在优势\n中国基金报：对比A股和港股市场，您认为后面4个月那个市场表现更好？为什么？\n吴向军：对于股市在任何短期时间内表现做一般性的预测都会面临非常多的不确定因素。现在最大的不确定因素是互联网行业的监管具体方案何时落地。政策对新经济从长远看是扶持的，是呈正面态度的。一旦这些监管措施（包括法律、法规、行政措施等）落地，互联网行业股票或有机遇。而港股中互联网行业比重已经远超A股。这个不确定因素对港股的影响也比A股大很多。\n周寒颖：香港市场有一些自身贡献的Alpha的因子，高分红、低波动、品质、盈利预测调整和动量是最有效的五个因子。观察过去五到十年港股优异公司背后的特征，盈利驱动的作用相对更加突出。\nA股市场可能更注重净利润弹性，每一年只需要把握住当年净利润增速最快的那一批公司。所以在A股，可能对于估值的要求并不那么高，但是对于利润的高增长是要求特别高的。\n张金涛：相比之下我认为港股拥有四大优势，具备长期投资机会。第一，港股估值整体处于低位，AH溢价率则处于历史较高水平；第二，业绩有望呈现较快增长；第三，流动性环境相对有利，海外疫情仍未受控，经济复苏晚于内地，流动性有望保持宽松；第四，港股本身的行业结构优化，长期成长性更好的互联网、消费、科技、医药公司占比提升。\n过去几年大量的优质互联网、消费、科技和医药公司在港股上市并获得纳入港股通，这将明显丰富港股通基金的可投资范围。\n张峰：长期来看，港股和A股的指数回报是差不多的，但是2019、2020年港股都显著跑输了A股，今年到目前是港股轻微跑赢了A股，未来四个月可能不好说，但是展望今年四季度以及明年的行情，港股表现更好，出现补涨的可能性是比较大的。\n刘宏达：2021年剩余时间，从宏观流动性的角度来看，A股更占优势，国内的流动性走向宽松概率大，而美联储政策在向收紧方向走。不过，AH溢价率现在已处于高位，如果未来几个月A股继续跑赢，A股相对港股的溢价率将达到历史极值，那么明年港股跑赢A股的概率很大。\n孙宇飞：由于港股市场资金和投资者结构的原因，在遇到负面因素影响时，悲观情绪容易被放大，在不确定性影响下，港股整体估值会承压并出现超调；但当不确定因素缓解，随后也会出现相应的估值修复行情。港股市场过去2-3个月的下跌，也是市场对负面影响因素的反应。\n港股市场前期的调整，已经消化了市场的不确定性和负面情绪，当前估值具备优势，随着不确定性因素逐步缓和，如果未来没有其他超预期风险，整体的大环境好转，港股已具备一定反弹的基础。从这个角度来说，历史上，港股在经历比较大幅的调整后，会迎来相应的估值修复，未来表现可期。在A股和港股市场，各行业都有较多优秀的公司，都有很多的结构性机会。\n张婷：我们相对更加看好港股市场的投资机会。\n基本面方面，港股和A股的基本面有一定共性。但是港股互联网科技公司近期受到反垄断政策和双减政策的影响估值受到压制，市场对恒指今年的盈利增速预期随着反垄断措施频出而下调，7月28日，彭博数据显示市场对恒生指数未来12个月的盈利预期增速大幅回调至-14.46%，已触及2008年次贷危机以来的最低值。8月以来盈利预期增速已小幅回升，这显示市场对未来恒生指数成长性信心已有所恢复。考虑到当前港股估值处于历史较低的估值水平，同时政策密集出台的时期已经逐渐过去，港股已出现筑底企稳的迹象，我们预计未来港股表现也将不错。\n中概股调整带来布局机遇\n中国基金报：如何看待香港市场中概股投资机会？其价值有多大？\n吴向军：短期内互联网巨头或持续波动。不过健康的互联网、高科技产业仍然是国家发展的重心。中长期来看，随着中概股回归和新经济产业巨头在港股的上市，公募、险资、年金等长线资金持续南下流入增配港股。这类新经济科技公司在当下和未来，都是中国经济重要支柱，也将成为港股长期投资的重要主题。\n周寒颖：海外市场的运行模式，不以盈利为上市要求，让我们有机会参与一些资质不错的早期互联网公司的成长，它们拥有相对稳定的提供较高回报率的盈利模式。这样的公司，它的用户数还没有见顶，同时有一个快速增长期，我们可以在左侧去布局。同理还有医疗器械领域，虽然前期投入了大量的研发费用，但也构筑了比较强的前置研发壁垒，在赛道中积累了巨大的竞争优势，也是值得长期持有的。\n张金涛：随着恒指持续改革，港股目前已成为中国新经济公司国际融资及投资的桥头堡。互联网平台等新经济正在成为港股的主要成分，提升港股短中长期的预期收益，进而吸引资金持续流入改善港股市场的流动性。\n同时随着港股盈利有望回升，海外资金也有望持续流入。从市场结构看，伴随着海外监管压力增加，中概股从美退市、来港股上市的情况越来越多，新经济龙头的不断上市有望进一步优化恒指，提升其成长性。这些成长性公司会相对改善港股市场结构，提升市场整体的投资价值。通过长期投资这些公司以享受其在市场份额扩张、盈利扩张的过程中带来的回报。\n张峰：中概股经过今年的大幅下挫，监管风险、盈利增速放缓等风险基本都在股价中得到了体现，如果未来出现进一步的下跌，可能是一个较好的进入时点。\n刘宏达：严格来说，大部分香港市场的上市公司主要业务开展的地区都在中国大陆，都可以算作中概股。由于香港资本市场发展较早，前期也吸纳了很多优质的行业龙头赴港上市融资，直到现在，港股市场都是全球IPO融资前两名的市场，代表中国经济未来发展方向的新、新技术，新消费，创新药等公司，陆续来到港股市场，会吸引更多海内外资金流入港股市场。\n孙宇飞：如果香港市场中概股指中资企业，这也是香港市场最主要的构成部分。香港市场的中国概念股，背靠中国内地的经济发展，可以说是坐在经济发展的高铁上。中概股未来成长和发展空间巨大，对于中概股的未来成长是充满信心，无论是大蓝筹还是各行业的“专精特新”小巨人，都具备长期发展空间。\n由于投资者结构、流动性、研究覆盖深度等多方面原因，部分标的估值与投资价值不匹配，低估了相关企业发展潜力。某些行业领先的龙头企业，在中国经济的提质增效大背景下，未来将获得长足的发展，具备较大投资价值。\n张婷：自2020年5月底美国参议院通过《外国公司责任法案》以来，已有多个中概股接连回港二次上市。在《外国公司责任法案》的相关法规要求下，在美上市中概股如连续三年无法提供审计工作底稿将会被实施禁止证券交易，预计未来在美上市中概股会有更强的回港上市需求。考虑到港交所对二次上市的公司要求较高，如能顺利二次上市可看做对公司竞争能力的保证，同时其往往又是国内市场比较稀缺的一些公司，因此顺利回港二次上市的公司具有较高价值，是接下来港股市场值得密切关注的投资标的。\n市场对政策最恐慌的时刻已经过去\n中国基金报：近期南下资金又出现净买入情况，跟前期流出形成反差，如何看待这一资金流动？是否会形成趋势？\n吴向军：前期大量资金卖出港股，尤其是互联网、新经济香港股票，形成一个相对的底部。随着利空信息进入空窗期，前期超卖的股票吸引了一部分抄底买家，股价有相应的反弹。从长期来看，这些新经济相关股票是有投资价值的，是值得长期投资的。但是在短期，市场和监管政策的博弈将会继续下去，直至法律、法规、行政措施等等最终出台。\n张金涛：通常保险、基金、银行等机构资金比较偏爱港股。这是由港股自身低估值、高分红的特性决定的。相比较于A股，港股整体估值要低很多，所以这类资金去香港市场可以买到更便宜的股票，并且港股有一个很大的特色就是整体分红水平要比A股高很多，这对于一些追求中长期稳定回报的机构资金而言，十分有吸引力，这是很多机构资金南下淘金的重要原因。\n张峰：南下资金一定程度上代表机构对于港股的看法，南下资金净流入港股比较多的时候，通常预示港股在未来一段时间可能有比较好的行情，我觉得这是一个值得密切关注的积极指标。\n刘宏达：其实最近南下资金还是流出大于流入，如果未来几个月A股表现更优，南下资金可能仍将阶段性流出。不过从长期趋势来看，南下资金在港股的占比会一直提升。\n孙宇飞：南下资金过去的2-3月处于资金净流出，反应出市场对于宏观层面政策不确定性的避险情绪，随着对于影响因素的理解和不确定性的缓和，目前部分优质资产，包括科技类、医药和消费类等板块的估值已经调整到位，具有足够的风险补偿，在经历前期调整后，优质资产颇具长期投资价值。\n随着更多的向好信号释放，市场有企稳的现象，但是否能形成趋势，目前仍难以判断。但随着市场信心和情绪修复，市场有望逐步恢复。后续南下资金有望更积极的重回港股市场，同时海外资金增加中国配置的大趋势也将继续。\n张婷：前期内资流动主要出于对政策的担忧。8月份针对互联网与教育行业的监管依然持续细化深入，保险科技平台不当营销、平台不当使用用户隐私、游戏行业“创作跑偏”以及家庭教育违规等细分领域的问题现象正成为监管整顿的重点。内地资金继续撤离，不过内资流出额8月边际有所放缓，近期南下资金又出现净买入的现象，显示出市场对政策最恐慌的时刻已经过去。我们认为目前港股处于逐步凝聚共识的状态，关于政策的边界在何处、又会给企业的营收和利润端造成何种影响等问题仍存在着分歧。所以，市场仍整体处于筑底的过程中。不过，积极的信号正在逐步浮现。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881392033,"gmtCreate":1631289510522,"gmtModify":1676530522410,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881392033","repostId":"1170461022","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889516181,"gmtCreate":1631157604043,"gmtModify":1676530483046,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889516181","repostId":"2166229313","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2166229313","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631150284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166229313?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 09:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Crude under pullback pressure as Fed slows Taper pace","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166229313","media":"格隆汇","summary":"随着消息面利好逐步兑现，油价进一步上行驱动不足。","content":"<p><html><body><span>The Federal Reserve's Taper expectations are temporarily slowing down and disturbed by hurricane factors, international crude oil prices have been generally strong recently.</span><span>However, as the positive news is gradually realized, the further upward drive of oil prices is insufficient.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Fed slows Taper pace</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>The recently released U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August fell short of expectations. The data only recorded an increase of 235,000, the smallest increase since January 2021 and far lower than the expected 730,000. The number of new non-agricultural jobs in July was revised up from 943,000 to 1.05 million, while the unemployment rate in August recorded 5.2%, which was the same as expected. U.S. non-farm payrolls data is regarded as an important reference indicator for changes in the Fed's monetary policy. The August data is far behind expectations, which makes the market think that the pace of the Fed's Taper may slow down.</span></p><p><span>However, at the previous annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, the Federal Reserve also did not clarify the specific timetable of Taper, which weakened the market's concerns about short-term liquidity tightening, and the US Dollar Index also experienced continuous declines, which formed a significant impact on the trend of crude oil and other commodities. support. However, as the global economy continues to recover and inflation rises, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve gradually reduces the scale of bond purchases in the future. This also means that liquidity will tend to tighten in the future as a whole, which will be bullish for the US dollar and negative for commodities.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Supply-side uncertainty elimination</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>At the beginning of September, the OPEC + meeting announced that the previous production increase plan would remain unchanged. OPEC + oil-producing countries will grow steadily at a total rate of 400,000 barrels per day in 8-12 months. This further eliminates the uncertainty on the crude oil supply side. The production policies of oil-producing countries are not expected to change significantly before the end of the year, and the overall production will increase steadily. However, the gradual withdrawal of production cuts and the increase of production baseline next year will still put some pressure on oil market supply.</span></p><p><span>In addition, due to the deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations, the recovery of Iran's crude oil supply has been delayed. However, Iran stated that once the unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. government are lifted, Iran is ready to increase oil production to the highest possible level to compensate for the huge losses caused by the unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States. In the first half of this year, Iran's crude oil production and exports have increased significantly. In July, production reached 2.5 million barrels per day, a new high in the past two years. However, since the export channel has not yet been fully opened, Iran's supply will still be limited in the future.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Hurricane Ida damages oil facilities</font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"></font></span></strong></h3><span>At the end of August, Hurricane Ida hit the Gulf region of the United States, causing water and power outages and damage to oil facilities. As of Monday, a total of 99 oil and natural gas production platforms in the U.S. Gulf region are still in a state of evacuation, while 83.87% of crude oil production (or 1.53 million barrels per day) is closed, limiting refinery processing demand. At present, the United States has entered the off-season of seasonal consumption, terminal demand for refined oil and refinery crude oil processing demand will decrease, and the inventory side will enter an accumulation cycle. In the future, the possibility of another hurricane in the U.S. Gulf region cannot be ruled out. The hurricane superimposes seasonal consumption factors, and the demand in the U.S. market will be further suppressed.</span></p><p><span>Based on the above analysis, after the short-term benefits are gradually realized, crude oil is facing callback pressure. In the medium term, the general tightening of the monetary level and the weakening of seasonal oil consumption will continue to suppress crude oil prices.</span></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crude under pullback pressure as Fed slows Taper pace</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrude under pullback pressure as Fed slows Taper pace\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 09:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><span>The Federal Reserve's Taper expectations are temporarily slowing down and disturbed by hurricane factors, international crude oil prices have been generally strong recently.</span><span>However, as the positive news is gradually realized, the further upward drive of oil prices is insufficient.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Fed slows Taper pace</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>The recently released U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August fell short of expectations. The data only recorded an increase of 235,000, the smallest increase since January 2021 and far lower than the expected 730,000. The number of new non-agricultural jobs in July was revised up from 943,000 to 1.05 million, while the unemployment rate in August recorded 5.2%, which was the same as expected. U.S. non-farm payrolls data is regarded as an important reference indicator for changes in the Fed's monetary policy. The August data is far behind expectations, which makes the market think that the pace of the Fed's Taper may slow down.</span></p><p><span>However, at the previous annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, the Federal Reserve also did not clarify the specific timetable of Taper, which weakened the market's concerns about short-term liquidity tightening, and the US Dollar Index also experienced continuous declines, which formed a significant impact on the trend of crude oil and other commodities. support. However, as the global economy continues to recover and inflation rises, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve gradually reduces the scale of bond purchases in the future. This also means that liquidity will tend to tighten in the future as a whole, which will be bullish for the US dollar and negative for commodities.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Supply-side uncertainty elimination</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>At the beginning of September, the OPEC + meeting announced that the previous production increase plan would remain unchanged. OPEC + oil-producing countries will grow steadily at a total rate of 400,000 barrels per day in 8-12 months. This further eliminates the uncertainty on the crude oil supply side. The production policies of oil-producing countries are not expected to change significantly before the end of the year, and the overall production will increase steadily. However, the gradual withdrawal of production cuts and the increase of production baseline next year will still put some pressure on oil market supply.</span></p><p><span>In addition, due to the deadlock in U.S.-Iran negotiations, the recovery of Iran's crude oil supply has been delayed. However, Iran stated that once the unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. government are lifted, Iran is ready to increase oil production to the highest possible level to compensate for the huge losses caused by the unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States. In the first half of this year, Iran's crude oil production and exports have increased significantly. In July, production reached 2.5 million barrels per day, a new high in the past two years. However, since the export channel has not yet been fully opened, Iran's supply will still be limited in the future.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Hurricane Ida damages oil facilities</font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"></font></span></strong></h3><span>At the end of August, Hurricane Ida hit the Gulf region of the United States, causing water and power outages and damage to oil facilities. As of Monday, a total of 99 oil and natural gas production platforms in the U.S. Gulf region are still in a state of evacuation, while 83.87% of crude oil production (or 1.53 million barrels per day) is closed, limiting refinery processing demand. At present, the United States has entered the off-season of seasonal consumption, terminal demand for refined oil and refinery crude oil processing demand will decrease, and the inventory side will enter an accumulation cycle. In the future, the possibility of another hurricane in the U.S. Gulf region cannot be ruled out. The hurricane superimposes seasonal consumption factors, and the demand in the U.S. market will be further suppressed.</span></p><p><span>Based on the above analysis, after the short-term benefits are gradually realized, crude oil is facing callback pressure. In the medium term, the general tightening of the monetary level and the weakening of seasonal oil consumption will continue to suppress crude oil prices.</span></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485936\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img7.gelonghui.com/apply/126180_20190115/column_article_file_20190115155141320.jpeg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","USO":"美国原油ETF","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485936","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2166229313","content_text":"美联储Taper预期暂时放缓以及受飓风因素扰动，国际原油价格近期整体偏强运行。不过，随着消息面利好逐步兑现，油价进一步上行驱动不足。美联储放缓Taper步伐近期公布的美国8月非农就业数据不及预期，数据仅录得增加23.5万人，创2021年1月以来最小增幅，远低于预期的73万人。而7月非农新增就业人数从94.3万人上修至105万人，同时8月失业率录得5.2%，与预期持平。美国非农就业数据被视为美联储货币政策变化的重要参考指标，8月数据与预期差距较大，令市场认为美联储Taper步伐或放缓。然而，在此前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储方面同样没有明确Taper的具体时间表，这使得市场对短期流动性收紧的担忧减弱，美元指数也出现连续下跌，对原油等商品走势形成明显支撑。不过，随着全球经济持续复苏以及通胀上升，美联储未来逐步缩减购债规模只是时间问题，这也意味着流动性未来整体会趋于收紧，届时将利多美元、利空商品。供应端的不确定性消除9月初，OPEC+会议宣布维持此前的增产计划不变，8—12个月OPEC+产油国将以总计40万桶/日的速度稳定增长，这进一步消除了原油供应端的不确定性，年底前产油国产量政策预计不会有较大变动，整体将呈现稳定增产的状态。不过，明年逐步退出减产以及提高产量基线，仍会给油市供应带来一定压力。此外，由于美伊谈判陷入僵局，伊朗原油供给的恢复出现延迟，但伊朗方面表示，一旦美国政府单方面的制裁被解除，伊朗准备将石油产量提高到可能的最高水平，以补偿美国单方面制裁造成的巨大损失。今年上半年，伊朗原油产量和出口量已显著增长，7月产量达到250万桶/日，为近两年来新高，但由于出口通道仍未完全打开，所以未来伊朗供给仍将受限。飓风艾达破坏石油设施 8月底，飓风“艾达”侵袭了美湾地区，并带来停水、停电以及石油设施的破坏。截至本周一，美湾地区共有99个石油、天然气生产平台仍处于撤离状态，同时有83.87%的原油产量（或153万桶/日）处于关闭状态，炼厂加工需求受限。目前，美国进入季节性消费淡季，终端成品油需求及炼厂原油加工需求将出现减少，库存端进入累积周期。未来不排除美湾地区再遭飓风侵袭的可能，飓风叠加季节性消费因素，美国市场需求会进一步受到抑制。综合以上分析，短线利好逐步兑现后，原油面临回调压力。中期来看，货币层面大方向收紧以及石油季节性消费弱化将持续压制原油价格。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"SCO":1,"DJX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"USO":1,"OEX":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"CLmain":1,"SSO":0.6,".IXIC":1,"DWT":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DUG":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DDG":0.6,"SPY":1,".DJI":1,"SDS":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UCO":1,"UWTIF":1,"BZmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"SH":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"QMmain":1,"ESmain":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880328398,"gmtCreate":1631021741114,"gmtModify":1676530444509,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880328398","repostId":"2165912804","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2165912804","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631018943,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165912804?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-07 20:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Cold thinking about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy: expectation guidance or discretionary decision","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165912804","media":"格隆汇","summary":"转眼美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话已过一周，会议上整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调，并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场","content":"<p>In the blink of an eye, it has been a week since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of the Epidemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27. The overall meeting maintained a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and did not convey too much more than expected incremental information. Regarding the reduction of the asset purchase plan (Taper) that the market is concerned about, Powell did not give clear time guidance, but he said that \"if the economic development is roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"<b>How the exit of the ultra-loose monetary policy in the United States in the post-epidemic era will be interpreted and how it will affect the global financial market is a topic that economists and investors around the world continue to pay attention to. Should investors follow the FED's expected guidance or try to see the core factors of deep-seated camera decisions? Since the financial crisis in 2008, the FED has actually accumulated very rich experience on the road of withdrawal, which is worth looking for future guidance from history. We choose to try to objectively find the future exit path and probability after the hustle and bustle after the meeting.</b></p><p><h3>01</h3><h3>U.S. epidemic repeatedly drags down economic recovery</h3>Recurrent epidemics are still one of the uncertainties facing the global economy in the fourth quarter. Since the second quarter, the global epidemic has rebounded significantly, and the Delta mutant virus has continued to spread, spreading rapidly in emerging market countries around India, as well as developed market countries such as the United Kingdom and Spain. Since July, the current round of the epidemic in the United States has started. The number of newly confirmed cases in a single day has risen rapidly, and the number of new deaths in a single day has also shown a rapid upward trend. As of the end of August, the current round of the epidemic in the United States has not clearly shown a peak and a decline. signs. The epidemic has repeatedly caused a certain drag on the recovery of household consumption and service industries. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell sharply in August, exceeding expectations. The United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Although the service PMI is still in the expansion range, it has fallen sharply for three consecutive months.</p><p><b>At present, the world is in a state of continuous spread of the epidemic and accelerated vaccination at the same time. This phenomenon is especially obvious in the United States.</b>According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the end of August, 61.8% of the total population in the United States had received one dose of vaccine, and 48.2% of the total population had received two doses of vaccine. Compared with European countries, the proportion of the population who had received one dose of vaccine was higher than that in European countries. At the level of 70%, the vaccination rate in the United States is relatively low. Moreover, the vaccination rate in the United States has slowed down significantly since April, but since the outbreak of the current epidemic in July, the vaccination rate has increased slightly. According to media reports, the enthusiasm of U.S. residents for vaccination has increased, and the U.S. government also plans to start providing vaccine in September. Vaccine booster shot. Except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>In addition to the relatively low vaccination rate, the vaccination of U.S. residents shows obvious regional differentiation. The vaccination rate of Republican-led states is significantly lower than that of Democratic-led states. States with low vaccination rates are also areas with severe repeated epidemics. Judging from the experience of countries with high vaccination rates such as the United Kingdom and Israel, the United States will face the coexistence of vaccine popularization and continuous virus spread in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a0530c5b32d9c735b16275e43d23124\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: New confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in a single day, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d2c024c3412aff6ee9731ffc5cb01f\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: The regional differentiation of vaccination in the United States is obvious, CDC</p><p><h3>02</h3><h3>There is still a long way to go before the U.S. economy fully recovers, and internal circulation repair is the core</h3><b>At present, the U.S. economy is still far from fully recovering. The recurrence of the epidemic and the withdrawal of special fiscal stimulus from the epidemic are likely to slow down the U.S. economic growth momentum in the third quarter.</b>After the epidemic, the United States has carried out three rounds of large-scale fiscal stimulus plans, especially direct subsidies for residents, which are the key to the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy in this round. U.S. household consumption expenditure accounts for about 68% of its total GDP, which has a relatively stable month-on-month positive pull on GDP. Therefore, when the special financial subsidies for the epidemic gradually expire, the sustainability of U.S. residents' consumption expenditure is an important uncertainty about whether U.S. economic growth will be stable in the second half of the year and whether structural inflationary pressures can be alleviated.</p><p>To observe the sustainability of U.S. residents' consumption expenditure, we can track the internal circulation transmission behavior of U.S. residents' employment, income, and consumption, as well as changes in U.S. residents' consumption confidence and inflation expectations. The United States created 943,000 new non-agricultural jobs in July, and the number of new jobs in May and June was revised upward to a total of 119,000, exceeding market expectations. Since the second quarter, employment in the U.S. service industry has continued to improve, and the overall non-farm payrolls have recovered to about 96% before the epidemic. However, the U.S. job market is still facing a situation of short supply. The labor force participation rate was 61.7% in July, compared with 63.3% before the epidemic. The number of job vacancies rose to 10.07 million in June, compared with only about 5 million before the epidemic, indicating that the demand for recruitment by enterprises is strong, but the labor force is not willing to find jobs.<b>The U.S. job market is expected to continue to recover in the fourth quarter. With the increase in vaccination rates and the expiration of special unemployment subsidies due to the epidemic, labor supply is expected to be further released.</b></p><p><b>As the U.S. job market continues to improve, labor wage income still supports the income of U.S. residents. If the income growth rate is not weak, household consumption expenditure will still be guaranteed in the fourth quarter.</b>In July, the income of residents in the United States was 1.11% month-on-month, of which personal transfer payment income contributed 0.60%, employee compensation contributed 0.54%, and the contribution of salary income increased for three consecutive months. Since the beginning of this year, the month-on-month growth rate of salary income has been strong. In July, U.S. residents' expenditure was 0.27% month-on-month, of which service consumption was 1% month-on-month, durable goods consumption was-2.29% month-on-month, and non-durable goods consumption was-0.38% month-on-month, reflecting that the focus of U.S. residents' consumption is shifting from goods to services. On the one hand, residents' enthusiasm for durable goods consumption will cool down with the expiration of financial subsidies for the epidemic. On the other hand, with the popularization of vaccines and the normalization of social activities, there is still much room for recovery in service consumption such as catering and tourism.</p><p><b>In terms of inflation, the production capacity on the supply side of the United States continues to recover, and the consumption structure of households on the demand side is changing, all of which will help alleviate the current structural pressure on inflation in the United States.</b>The U.S. CPI in July was 0.5% month-on-month, and the core CPI was 0.3% month-on-month. Compared with the high growth point in April, it dropped sharply, and the pressure on inflation month-on-month growth decreased. After the epidemic, inflation in the United States showed obvious structural differentiation, and price growth pressure was mainly concentrated in some industries, such as automobiles, transportation services and other industries with serious supply and demand imbalances. Looking forward, U.S. industrial output continues to recover, and manufacturers continue to replenish inventories, which is expected to further ease the pressure of tight supply, and there is room for downward trend in commodity price growth. However, in the process of household consumption shifting from commodities to services, it may lead to a short-term high growth rate of service industry prices, and the high growth rate of inflation may continue in stages. In the medium and long term, if the supply and demand relationship in the U.S. job market tends to be balanced, the overall salary growth pressure of the labor force may be alleviated. Referring to the Atlanta Fed Salary Growth Index's investigation of the long-term salary income levels of various industries, the total income growth of most industries is the same as before the epidemic. Not much difference. Overall, the high growth rate of inflation is likely to be temporary, and the medium and long-term inflation center will return to the desired range of the Federal Reserve, so we need to pay close attention to the disturbance of uncertain factors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d29c6f23b0ac5773444d7695e60b1118\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: The U.S. job market continues to recover, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddadcfa32bbc46aaa1953c47cc030f1b\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: The consumption structure of U.S. residents shifts from commodities to consumption, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012e05432cc2afb586d75f069b13138f\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: The inflation structure in the United States is obviously differentiated, Bloomberg</p><p><h3>03</h3><h3>Taper is about to open, with special focus on US fiscal policy</h3>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of Epidemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27. He overall maintained a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and did not convey too much incremental information that exceeded expectations. Regarding the reduction of the asset purchase plan (Taper) that the market is concerned about, Powell did not give clear time guidance, but he said that \"if the economic development is roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"<b>That is to say, if the U.S. job market maintains a good recovery trend and the pressure of short-term high growth rate of inflation eases, then it is a high probability event to start Taper this year.</b>Recently, many members of the Federal Reserve have conveyed to the market their views of supporting the opening of Taper, and the market has fully anticipated this. Considering that the Fed has returned to the data-dependent mode and the monetary policy adjustment is based on the realized economic data, we judge that the Fed wants to confirm the improvement of the job market after the expiration of the special epidemic subsidy, that is, waiting to observe the employment data in September and October, then The September FOMC meeting gave a clear Taper signal, the November FOMC meeting announced the Taper plan, and the December FOMC meeting opened the Taper, which is the baseline scenario for our judgment. According to a Bloomberg survey, market investors generally expect it to be consistent with the baseline scenario, basically avoiding the recurrence of the 13-year \"taper tantrum\".</p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole conference<b>\"The timing and speed of the upcoming reduction of asset purchases do not send a direct signal about the timing of rate hike. Regarding the rate hike issue, we have clearly expressed a different and more rigorous test,\" reiterating that there is no clear relationship between Taper and rate hike. Powell said at the FOMC press conference in July that \"under ideal conditions, interest rates will not be raised while purchasing assets.\" Referring to the gap between the last round of the Fed's end of asset purchases and the first rate hike of more than a year, the benchmark scenario for our judgment is, The current round of the Fed's rate hike will not be earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022.</b>It is true that there is still a long time before the Federal Reserve's first rate hike. During this period, the U.S. economy is still facing various uncertainties and disturbances, such as the development of the epidemic and vaccines, and the recovery of the job market. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current U.S. job market There are still 6 million laborers who have not returned to their jobs, of which 5 million are from the service sector that has been deeply impacted by the epidemic, and the current recovery of labor participation rate is weak. Before the U.S. economy has fully recovered from the impact of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve has the need to lower interest rates and provide lower financing costs for the financial and real sectors. Looking back at the last round of the Fed's attempt to return to the normalization of monetary policy, the market's expectation of a rapid rise in interest rates often brings greater disturbance to the financial market, especially the amplification of fluctuations in U.S. stocks, which is not conducive to the Fed's maintenance of financial market stability and confidence in the real sector.<b>Therefore, in the future, the Federal Reserve will carefully and fully communicate the rate hike plan with the market. The current rate hike is not the main contradiction that the market is concerned about.</b></p><p>At present, the market has sufficient expectations for the adjustment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and fiscal policy may be the focus of recent market attention, or it may bring certain constraints to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. On August 10, the U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure plan with a total scale of US $1.2 trillion, including US $550 billion in new expenditures. The overall expenditure time is about five years. The plan has a high probability of being passed in the Democratic-led House of Representatives. On August 24th, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed the $3.5 trillion budget plan framework. Two weeks ago, the Senate passed the budget plan framework, which means that the Democratic Party can bypass the Republican Party and complete the legislation of the budget resolution through the budget reconciliation process. The United States will hold mid-term elections in 2022. Before that, the Biden administration is highly likely to accelerate the implementation of its large-scale fiscal stimulus plan by virtue of the Democratic Party's advantage as the majority party in the Senate and the House of Representatives, including the implementation of infrastructure investment and people's livelihood security, and the improvement of taxes on enterprises and high-income groups.<b>Overall, the proactive fiscal plan pursued by the Biden administration will increase the pressure on U.S. government debt or constrain the pace of the Federal Reserve's withdrawal from loose monetary policy.</b>According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, from February 2020 to July 2021, the stock of marketable Treasury Bond in the United States increased by US $4.78 trillion. During this period, the Federal Reserve's Treasury Bond holdings increased by US $2.79 trillion, accounting for US Treasury Bond. 58.33% of the net increase, the impact of the Fed's asset purchases on the U.S. Treasury Bond market is much greater than before the epidemic. In particular, the Fed has increased its purchase of inflation-compensated bonds, which has depressed the real interest rate center of long-term U.S. bonds to a certain extent. The Federal Reserve will hold a FOMC meeting on September 21-22. Before that, the latest developments in U.S. fiscal policy, including the promotion of the $1.2 trillion and $3.5 trillion fiscal stimulus plans and the game against the U.S. government debt ceiling, may have a certain impact on the financial market.<b>Before the dust of a new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States settles, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and any hawkish signal that exceeds market expectations will further amplify market volatility.</b></p><p>To sum up, our basic outlook for the next stage of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is: if the U.S. job market, especially the service industry employment, recovers steadily from August to November, that is, the average monthly new non-farm employment will be around 700,000-800,000. Under such circumstances, the Federal Reserve will announce the specific content of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting, and the December FOMC meeting will announce the opening of Taper. Judging from the consensus expectations of the market, the Federal Reserve will reduce Treasury Bond purchases by US $10 billion and MBS purchases by US $5 billion per month. Based on the current monthly purchase scale of US $80 billion in Treasury Bond and US $40 billion in MBS, and with reference to the completion of Taper by the Federal Reserve in 14 years, it may take the Fed 8-10 months to end this round of asset purchase programs. The core uncertainty lies in the development of the epidemic and the recovery of the job market. If the epidemic in the United States deteriorates rapidly in the fourth quarter and the recovery of the job market is interrupted, the Federal Reserve will postpone the opening of Taper.<b>In addition, the current market expectations that the Fed is about to start Taper are already sufficient, so the key influencing variable is to reduce the pace of asset purchases.</b>If the scale of the new round of fiscal stimulus plan spending advocated by the Biden administration exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of tightening and adopt adjustments such as reducing monthly taperings and lengthening the time interval between adjustments and taperings. As for rate hike, it is still not the main contradiction that the current market is concerned about. If the U.S. economic recovery is in line with current strong expectations, the first rate hike will be no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022. According to Bloomberg WIRP statistics, some investors believe that the first rate hike may occur in September 2022, and the cumulative number of rate hike at the FOMC meeting in January 2023 is only 0.8, that is, the Federal Reserve will still maintain the current interest rate unchanged at that time; According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>According to the statistical forecast of the Fed Watch Tool, investors believe that the probability of the Fed's rate hike at the December 2022 FOMC meeting is greater than 50% for the first time. While the Federal Reserve completes the reduction of bond purchases and measures rate hike conditions, global economic growth faces many uncertain factors, especially the development of the epidemic and policy direction, which require close attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/920a982ccfb093bb70eeb88e3f709187\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Photo: WIRP, Bloomberg</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c213953afae18f328a763c64d73a07\" tg-width=\"559\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Photo: CME FedWatch Tool, CME</p><p><h3>04</h3><h3>Review of historical experience: 2013 QE3 Taper and 2015 rate hike Review</h3><b>1. Policy shift process, 2013-2015</b></p><p>After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve conducted three QE sessions. Among them, QE1 (November 2008-March 2010) and QE2 (August 2010-June 2011) both clarified the scale and rhythm of purchases when they were announced, so their withdrawal was also fully expected. However, when QE3 started, it did not specify the purchase scale and exit time. It only stated that \"asset purchases will continue until a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook is observed in the context of price stability.\" (purchases would continue until we saw a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability). Until the FOMC meeting statement released on May 1, 2013, the Federal Reserve stated: \"When the labor market or inflation outlook changes, the FOMC will be ready to accelerate or slow down the pace of asset purchases to keep policies appropriately loose.\" Release the Taper signal for the first time. Then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke further stated in the congressional hearing inquiry on May 22, 2013 that \"we will consider gradually slowing down the pace of asset purchases in the next few interest rate meetings\", further releasing the Taper signal. Since then, at the FOMC meetings in June, July, and September, Bernanke stated that \"the original scale of bond purchases will continue to be maintained\", and at the same time, \"if the economic, employment, and inflation data meet the conditions, it is appropriate to slow down the pace of bond purchases this year.\" appropriate \". At the interest rate meeting in October, the committee members began to talk about the timing and rhythm of Taper, but did not give an exact and unified signal.</p><p>At the December meeting, the Federal Reserve stated that the economy continues to make progress, the labor market continues to make meaningful cumulative progress, and inflation and inflation expectations are stable. Based on this, it decided to reduce bond purchases from next month. In January 2014, the Federal Reserve officially launched the Taper process, announcing a reduction of US $10 billion (including 5 billion UST and 5 billion MBS) at each meeting, until the end of QE3 was announced at the meeting in October of the same year. In the 2013-2014 Taper process, it took 7.5 months from the start of Taper talk to the official announcement of the reduction, and 10 months from the official start of Taper to the end of QE.</p><p>At the FOMC meeting in September 2015, 13/17 participants expected that the rate hike process would be launched in 2015, and the Federal Reserve released a rate hike signal. In December of the same year, the Federal Reserve raised the target range of Federal Funds rate to 0.25-0.50, starting the first rate hike process after the financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a5ca7dd72b3e5523d411341962c3e0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"1005\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2. The last round of Taper and rate hike's economic environment</b></p><p>Taper in 2013 was based on the conditions that the U.S. economy began to recover steadily after three rounds of QE, the labor market gradually repaired, and inflation stabilized. In terms of economic performance, the GDP growth rate of the United States began to rise steadily in 2012, with the annual economic growth rate of 2.3%. Bernanke also expressed optimistic expectations for the economic growth rate of 2013Q1 at the congressional hearing (Q1 GDP is expected to be 2.5% year-on-year). Since then, although the economic growth rate has declined slightly in Q1-Q2 of 2013, it has picked up again in Q3-Q4. The manufacturing PMI began to bottom out at the end of 2012, returning to above the boom-bust line, and reached the peak since QE3 in November 2013. When Taper was announced in December, the manufacturing PMI had far exceeded the pre-financial crisis level; Although the non-manufacturing PMI still lags behind that before the financial crisis, it has been stable above the boom-bust line. Supply-side industrial output and capacity utilization have stabilized, industrial output has returned to pre-financial crisis levels, and capacity utilization has recovered slightly and steadily. Demand-side retail sales continued to recover, with steady and positive year-on-year growth, and exceeded the pre-financial crisis level at the end of 2010. The inventory-to-sales ratio is at a relatively low point after the crisis, especially the retail inventory is significantly lower than the pre-crisis level. The real estate market has strengthened, and new housing starts and new housing sales have increased year-on-year since 2012.</p><p>The labor market continues to recover, the number of non-agricultural employment has grown steadily and positively, and the growth rate of non-agricultural employment has increased significantly in Q4 2013. Non-agricultural employment continued to recover, reaching more than 99% since June 2013, and returned to pre-crisis levels in January 2014. But the job market repair is still incomplete. The unemployment rate continues to decline. In December 2013, the unemployment rate of 6.7% was 1.4 percentage points lower than before QE3, but it was still higher than the Fed's target of 6.5%. The job vacancy rate continues to rise, and the labor force's willingness to find employment is not strong.</p><p>In terms of inflation, the inflation level has continued to run below the 2% target since QE3. Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June 2013, it has acknowledged that continued inflation below the target value may bring risks to economic performance. However, the Fed believes that long-term inflation expectations are stable and expects inflation to gradually return to the 2% level.</p><p>After the end of QE3 in 2014, the U.S. GDP growth rate in Q1 2015 was 3.76%, the fastest growth rate since the financial crisis. Although the growth rate declined in subsequent Q2-Q3, it still maintained steady growth. The labor market has been further repaired, and non-agricultural employment has continued to grow steadily and positively; The unemployment rate fell below the target of 6.5% in April 2014, and dropped by another 1.5 percentage points by December 2015; The labor force participation rate remains in the range of 62%-63%. In terms of inflation, although the price index continues to be sluggish, there have been signs of recovery in Q4 2015. Considering the recovery of the job market, the Federal Reserve launched its first rate hike since the crisis in December 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7be20f5808fa26e336fd3032f4735c2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/fa456-e4e864df-59a8-45f4-b11c-87b3c58ac307.png\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4797691af42ed76eaaa4aee6a0e0368\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111a975e5de6c9d610c920634e8661a9\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: U.S. economic fundamentals data, data source wind</p><p><b>3. Asset price performance when the last round of easing policy was withdrawn</b></p><p>For the unprecedented large-scale asset purchase plan after the 2008 financial crisis, the market failed to fully expect the timing and rhythm of its closing. Therefore, after the Federal Reserve released the Taper signal for the first time on May 1, 2013, it triggered a Taper tantrum. Long-term U.S. bond yields rose rapidly by nearly 110BP within two months, and continued to fluctuate upward until the market's Taper expectations failed at the September FOMC meeting. US Treasury yields fell accordingly. After the official announcement of Taper on December 18, 2013, the market reaction was relatively flat. The 10-year US Treasury yields rose slightly and then began to fall for one year.</p><p>In 2015, the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate generally fluctuated, mainly because oil prices dragged down inflation and inflation expectations, while rate hike expected to drive real interest rates upward, and the two played games repeatedly. After the rate hike started in December 2015, while inflation expectations continued to weaken, real interest rates also turned downward due to weak U.S. economic data, both of which dragged down US Treasury yields.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98c15f470a928687cebba2d4700759e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108c0e1012418529278377668e65fba0\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: U.S. Treasury Bond interest rate performance, data source wind</p><p>After Bernanke continued to release the Taper signal at a congressional hearing on May 22, 2013, U.S. stocks fell rapidly driven by the Taper tantrum. After the official announcement of Taper in December of the same year, U.S. stocks began to rebound. Overall, Taper did not have a great impact on U.S. stocks in 2013. Driven by economic recovery and corporate profit recovery, U.S. stocks still rose rapidly as a whole. After the rate hike process started in December 2015, U.S. stocks rose slightly and then fell sharply, mainly due to weakening fundamentals and inflation. It didn't pick up until February 2016 after inflation and fundamentals picked up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e172aa53a0b812ebbcd4431b581997\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: Performance of the US S&P 500 Index, data source wind</p><p><h3>05</h3><h3>Outlook: Possible Deduction of the Fed's Monetary Policy in the Future</h3>Considering the uncertainty of the global epidemic, the growth momentum of the U.S. economy is more dependent on the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, the valuation of the U.S. stock market is at a historically high position, and the lack of communication when the Federal Reserve adjusted monetary policy in 2013, which triggered large fluctuations in the financial market, We tend to think that the Fed will be very prudent in reducing the scale of asset purchases in the coming period, relying more on the realized economic data, especially the job market data, rather than the market's expectations for future economic data. And the Federal Reserve will fully communicate with the market before starting to reduce the scale of asset purchases, so that the market can make full thinking and plans for this. In the future, the focus of investor games will shift from when to start Taper to reducing the scale of asset purchases and the adjustments made by the Federal Reserve during the Taper process.</p><p>In particular,<b>First, under the economic baseline scenario:</b>If the epidemic in the United States is basically controlled and the job market continues to recover steadily, that is, when the average monthly new non-farm employment from August to November is around 700,000-800,000, the Biden administration advocates fiscal stimulus The legislation is implemented in the fourth quarter, then the Federal Reserve will announce the specific content of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting. The December FOMC meeting announced the opening of Taper, reducing Treasury Bond purchases by US $10 billion and MBS purchases by US $5 billion per month. In terms of asset performance, the 10-year U.S. bond yield slowly climbed to 1.5% during the year, gold fluctuated in the range of $1,700-1,900, and U.S. stocks maintained their upward trend, but the S&P 500 could hardly rise by more than 5%. The impact on China's ten-year Treasury Bond is limited, the impact on China's undervalued equity assets is bullish, and the impact on international bulk varieties such as crude oil and copper is bullish.</p><p><b>Second, under the pessimistic economic scenario:</b>The current round of the epidemic in the United States has accelerated and worsened, restricting the improvement of social and economic activities. The recovery of the job market is less than expected. The advancement of the fiscal stimulus plan advocated by the Biden administration has been blocked or the scale of implementation has been reduced. The Federal Reserve will postpone the opening of Taper. In terms of asset performance, the ten-year U.S. bond yield will remain in the range of 1.0-1.2% during the year, gold is expected to exceed $1,900, U.S. stocks will rise and the Nasdaq is expected to perform better. It is bullish for China's ten-year Treasury Bond and bullish for China's equity market.</p><p><b>Third, under the optimistic economic scenario:</b>The current round of the epidemic in the United States was quickly brought under control. By the end of the year, the average monthly new non-farm employment exceeded 1 million. The U.S. government debt ceiling and Biden's fiscal plan were successfully resolved from September to October. The Federal Reserve may advance the opening of Taper to November. In terms of asset performance, the ten-year U.S. bond yield is expected to return to 1.7% during the year, gold will fall below $1,700, and U.S. stocks will show high fluctuations. The impact on China's ten-year Treasury Bond is negative, negative on China's highly valued equity assets, and bullish on crude oil.</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cold thinking about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy: expectation guidance or discretionary decision</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCold thinking about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy: expectation guidance or discretionary decision\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 20:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the blink of an eye, it has been a week since Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of the Epidemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27. The overall meeting maintained a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and did not convey too much more than expected incremental information. Regarding the reduction of the asset purchase plan (Taper) that the market is concerned about, Powell did not give clear time guidance, but he said that \"if the economic development is roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"<b>How the exit of the ultra-loose monetary policy in the United States in the post-epidemic era will be interpreted and how it will affect the global financial market is a topic that economists and investors around the world continue to pay attention to. Should investors follow the FED's expected guidance or try to see the core factors of deep-seated camera decisions? Since the financial crisis in 2008, the FED has actually accumulated very rich experience on the road of withdrawal, which is worth looking for future guidance from history. We choose to try to objectively find the future exit path and probability after the hustle and bustle after the meeting.</b></p><p><h3>01</h3><h3>U.S. epidemic repeatedly drags down economic recovery</h3>Recurrent epidemics are still one of the uncertainties facing the global economy in the fourth quarter. Since the second quarter, the global epidemic has rebounded significantly, and the Delta mutant virus has continued to spread, spreading rapidly in emerging market countries around India, as well as developed market countries such as the United Kingdom and Spain. Since July, the current round of the epidemic in the United States has started. The number of newly confirmed cases in a single day has risen rapidly, and the number of new deaths in a single day has also shown a rapid upward trend. As of the end of August, the current round of the epidemic in the United States has not clearly shown a peak and a decline. signs. The epidemic has repeatedly caused a certain drag on the recovery of household consumption and service industries. The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell sharply in August, exceeding expectations. The United States<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a>Although the service PMI is still in the expansion range, it has fallen sharply for three consecutive months.</p><p><b>At present, the world is in a state of continuous spread of the epidemic and accelerated vaccination at the same time. This phenomenon is especially obvious in the United States.</b>According to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, as of the end of August, 61.8% of the total population in the United States had received one dose of vaccine, and 48.2% of the total population had received two doses of vaccine. Compared with European countries, the proportion of the population who had received one dose of vaccine was higher than that in European countries. At the level of 70%, the vaccination rate in the United States is relatively low. Moreover, the vaccination rate in the United States has slowed down significantly since April, but since the outbreak of the current epidemic in July, the vaccination rate has increased slightly. According to media reports, the enthusiasm of U.S. residents for vaccination has increased, and the U.S. government also plans to start providing vaccine in September. Vaccine booster shot. Except<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>In addition to the relatively low vaccination rate, the vaccination of U.S. residents shows obvious regional differentiation. The vaccination rate of Republican-led states is significantly lower than that of Democratic-led states. States with low vaccination rates are also areas with severe repeated epidemics. Judging from the experience of countries with high vaccination rates such as the United Kingdom and Israel, the United States will face the coexistence of vaccine popularization and continuous virus spread in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a0530c5b32d9c735b16275e43d23124\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: New confirmed cases and deaths in the United States in a single day, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6d2c024c3412aff6ee9731ffc5cb01f\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: The regional differentiation of vaccination in the United States is obvious, CDC</p><p><h3>02</h3><h3>There is still a long way to go before the U.S. economy fully recovers, and internal circulation repair is the core</h3><b>At present, the U.S. economy is still far from fully recovering. The recurrence of the epidemic and the withdrawal of special fiscal stimulus from the epidemic are likely to slow down the U.S. economic growth momentum in the third quarter.</b>After the epidemic, the United States has carried out three rounds of large-scale fiscal stimulus plans, especially direct subsidies for residents, which are the key to the rapid recovery of the U.S. economy in this round. U.S. household consumption expenditure accounts for about 68% of its total GDP, which has a relatively stable month-on-month positive pull on GDP. Therefore, when the special financial subsidies for the epidemic gradually expire, the sustainability of U.S. residents' consumption expenditure is an important uncertainty about whether U.S. economic growth will be stable in the second half of the year and whether structural inflationary pressures can be alleviated.</p><p>To observe the sustainability of U.S. residents' consumption expenditure, we can track the internal circulation transmission behavior of U.S. residents' employment, income, and consumption, as well as changes in U.S. residents' consumption confidence and inflation expectations. The United States created 943,000 new non-agricultural jobs in July, and the number of new jobs in May and June was revised upward to a total of 119,000, exceeding market expectations. Since the second quarter, employment in the U.S. service industry has continued to improve, and the overall non-farm payrolls have recovered to about 96% before the epidemic. However, the U.S. job market is still facing a situation of short supply. The labor force participation rate was 61.7% in July, compared with 63.3% before the epidemic. The number of job vacancies rose to 10.07 million in June, compared with only about 5 million before the epidemic, indicating that the demand for recruitment by enterprises is strong, but the labor force is not willing to find jobs.<b>The U.S. job market is expected to continue to recover in the fourth quarter. With the increase in vaccination rates and the expiration of special unemployment subsidies due to the epidemic, labor supply is expected to be further released.</b></p><p><b>As the U.S. job market continues to improve, labor wage income still supports the income of U.S. residents. If the income growth rate is not weak, household consumption expenditure will still be guaranteed in the fourth quarter.</b>In July, the income of residents in the United States was 1.11% month-on-month, of which personal transfer payment income contributed 0.60%, employee compensation contributed 0.54%, and the contribution of salary income increased for three consecutive months. Since the beginning of this year, the month-on-month growth rate of salary income has been strong. In July, U.S. residents' expenditure was 0.27% month-on-month, of which service consumption was 1% month-on-month, durable goods consumption was-2.29% month-on-month, and non-durable goods consumption was-0.38% month-on-month, reflecting that the focus of U.S. residents' consumption is shifting from goods to services. On the one hand, residents' enthusiasm for durable goods consumption will cool down with the expiration of financial subsidies for the epidemic. On the other hand, with the popularization of vaccines and the normalization of social activities, there is still much room for recovery in service consumption such as catering and tourism.</p><p><b>In terms of inflation, the production capacity on the supply side of the United States continues to recover, and the consumption structure of households on the demand side is changing, all of which will help alleviate the current structural pressure on inflation in the United States.</b>The U.S. CPI in July was 0.5% month-on-month, and the core CPI was 0.3% month-on-month. Compared with the high growth point in April, it dropped sharply, and the pressure on inflation month-on-month growth decreased. After the epidemic, inflation in the United States showed obvious structural differentiation, and price growth pressure was mainly concentrated in some industries, such as automobiles, transportation services and other industries with serious supply and demand imbalances. Looking forward, U.S. industrial output continues to recover, and manufacturers continue to replenish inventories, which is expected to further ease the pressure of tight supply, and there is room for downward trend in commodity price growth. However, in the process of household consumption shifting from commodities to services, it may lead to a short-term high growth rate of service industry prices, and the high growth rate of inflation may continue in stages. In the medium and long term, if the supply and demand relationship in the U.S. job market tends to be balanced, the overall salary growth pressure of the labor force may be alleviated. Referring to the Atlanta Fed Salary Growth Index's investigation of the long-term salary income levels of various industries, the total income growth of most industries is the same as before the epidemic. Not much difference. Overall, the high growth rate of inflation is likely to be temporary, and the medium and long-term inflation center will return to the desired range of the Federal Reserve, so we need to pay close attention to the disturbance of uncertain factors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d29c6f23b0ac5773444d7695e60b1118\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: The U.S. job market continues to recover, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddadcfa32bbc46aaa1953c47cc030f1b\" tg-width=\"993\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: The consumption structure of U.S. residents shifts from commodities to consumption, Wind</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/012e05432cc2afb586d75f069b13138f\" tg-width=\"698\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: The inflation structure in the United States is obviously differentiated, Bloomberg</p><p><h3>03</h3><h3>Taper is about to open, with special focus on US fiscal policy</h3>Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech on \"Monetary Policy in the Era of Epidemic\" at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Meeting on August 27. He overall maintained a dovish tone consistent with the July FOMC meeting and did not convey too much incremental information that exceeded expectations. Regarding the reduction of the asset purchase plan (Taper) that the market is concerned about, Powell did not give clear time guidance, but he said that \"if the economic development is roughly in line with expectations, then it may be appropriate to start slowing down the pace of asset purchases this year.\"<b>That is to say, if the U.S. job market maintains a good recovery trend and the pressure of short-term high growth rate of inflation eases, then it is a high probability event to start Taper this year.</b>Recently, many members of the Federal Reserve have conveyed to the market their views of supporting the opening of Taper, and the market has fully anticipated this. Considering that the Fed has returned to the data-dependent mode and the monetary policy adjustment is based on the realized economic data, we judge that the Fed wants to confirm the improvement of the job market after the expiration of the special epidemic subsidy, that is, waiting to observe the employment data in September and October, then The September FOMC meeting gave a clear Taper signal, the November FOMC meeting announced the Taper plan, and the December FOMC meeting opened the Taper, which is the baseline scenario for our judgment. According to a Bloomberg survey, market investors generally expect it to be consistent with the baseline scenario, basically avoiding the recurrence of the 13-year \"taper tantrum\".</p><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the Jackson Hole conference<b>\"The timing and speed of the upcoming reduction of asset purchases do not send a direct signal about the timing of rate hike. Regarding the rate hike issue, we have clearly expressed a different and more rigorous test,\" reiterating that there is no clear relationship between Taper and rate hike. Powell said at the FOMC press conference in July that \"under ideal conditions, interest rates will not be raised while purchasing assets.\" Referring to the gap between the last round of the Fed's end of asset purchases and the first rate hike of more than a year, the benchmark scenario for our judgment is, The current round of the Fed's rate hike will not be earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022.</b>It is true that there is still a long time before the Federal Reserve's first rate hike. During this period, the U.S. economy is still facing various uncertainties and disturbances, such as the development of the epidemic and vaccines, and the recovery of the job market. Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the current U.S. job market There are still 6 million laborers who have not returned to their jobs, of which 5 million are from the service sector that has been deeply impacted by the epidemic, and the current recovery of labor participation rate is weak. Before the U.S. economy has fully recovered from the impact of the epidemic, the Federal Reserve has the need to lower interest rates and provide lower financing costs for the financial and real sectors. Looking back at the last round of the Fed's attempt to return to the normalization of monetary policy, the market's expectation of a rapid rise in interest rates often brings greater disturbance to the financial market, especially the amplification of fluctuations in U.S. stocks, which is not conducive to the Fed's maintenance of financial market stability and confidence in the real sector.<b>Therefore, in the future, the Federal Reserve will carefully and fully communicate the rate hike plan with the market. The current rate hike is not the main contradiction that the market is concerned about.</b></p><p>At present, the market has sufficient expectations for the adjustment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and fiscal policy may be the focus of recent market attention, or it may bring certain constraints to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. On August 10, the U.S. Senate passed an infrastructure plan with a total scale of US $1.2 trillion, including US $550 billion in new expenditures. The overall expenditure time is about five years. The plan has a high probability of being passed in the Democratic-led House of Representatives. On August 24th, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed the $3.5 trillion budget plan framework. Two weeks ago, the Senate passed the budget plan framework, which means that the Democratic Party can bypass the Republican Party and complete the legislation of the budget resolution through the budget reconciliation process. The United States will hold mid-term elections in 2022. Before that, the Biden administration is highly likely to accelerate the implementation of its large-scale fiscal stimulus plan by virtue of the Democratic Party's advantage as the majority party in the Senate and the House of Representatives, including the implementation of infrastructure investment and people's livelihood security, and the improvement of taxes on enterprises and high-income groups.<b>Overall, the proactive fiscal plan pursued by the Biden administration will increase the pressure on U.S. government debt or constrain the pace of the Federal Reserve's withdrawal from loose monetary policy.</b>According to data from the U.S. Treasury Department, from February 2020 to July 2021, the stock of marketable Treasury Bond in the United States increased by US $4.78 trillion. During this period, the Federal Reserve's Treasury Bond holdings increased by US $2.79 trillion, accounting for US Treasury Bond. 58.33% of the net increase, the impact of the Fed's asset purchases on the U.S. Treasury Bond market is much greater than before the epidemic. In particular, the Fed has increased its purchase of inflation-compensated bonds, which has depressed the real interest rate center of long-term U.S. bonds to a certain extent. The Federal Reserve will hold a FOMC meeting on September 21-22. Before that, the latest developments in U.S. fiscal policy, including the promotion of the $1.2 trillion and $3.5 trillion fiscal stimulus plans and the game against the U.S. government debt ceiling, may have a certain impact on the financial market.<b>Before the dust of a new round of fiscal stimulus in the United States settles, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and any hawkish signal that exceeds market expectations will further amplify market volatility.</b></p><p>To sum up, our basic outlook for the next stage of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is: if the U.S. job market, especially the service industry employment, recovers steadily from August to November, that is, the average monthly new non-farm employment will be around 700,000-800,000. Under such circumstances, the Federal Reserve will announce the specific content of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting, and the December FOMC meeting will announce the opening of Taper. Judging from the consensus expectations of the market, the Federal Reserve will reduce Treasury Bond purchases by US $10 billion and MBS purchases by US $5 billion per month. Based on the current monthly purchase scale of US $80 billion in Treasury Bond and US $40 billion in MBS, and with reference to the completion of Taper by the Federal Reserve in 14 years, it may take the Fed 8-10 months to end this round of asset purchase programs. The core uncertainty lies in the development of the epidemic and the recovery of the job market. If the epidemic in the United States deteriorates rapidly in the fourth quarter and the recovery of the job market is interrupted, the Federal Reserve will postpone the opening of Taper.<b>In addition, the current market expectations that the Fed is about to start Taper are already sufficient, so the key influencing variable is to reduce the pace of asset purchases.</b>If the scale of the new round of fiscal stimulus plan spending advocated by the Biden administration exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of tightening and adopt adjustments such as reducing monthly taperings and lengthening the time interval between adjustments and taperings. As for rate hike, it is still not the main contradiction that the current market is concerned about. If the U.S. economic recovery is in line with current strong expectations, the first rate hike will be no earlier than the fourth quarter of 2022. According to Bloomberg WIRP statistics, some investors believe that the first rate hike may occur in September 2022, and the cumulative number of rate hike at the FOMC meeting in January 2023 is only 0.8, that is, the Federal Reserve will still maintain the current interest rate unchanged at that time; According to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CME\">Chicago Mercantile Exchange</a>According to the statistical forecast of the Fed Watch Tool, investors believe that the probability of the Fed's rate hike at the December 2022 FOMC meeting is greater than 50% for the first time. While the Federal Reserve completes the reduction of bond purchases and measures rate hike conditions, global economic growth faces many uncertain factors, especially the development of the epidemic and policy direction, which require close attention.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/920a982ccfb093bb70eeb88e3f709187\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Photo: WIRP, Bloomberg</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40c213953afae18f328a763c64d73a07\" tg-width=\"559\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Photo: CME FedWatch Tool, CME</p><p><h3>04</h3><h3>Review of historical experience: 2013 QE3 Taper and 2015 rate hike Review</h3><b>1. Policy shift process, 2013-2015</b></p><p>After the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve conducted three QE sessions. Among them, QE1 (November 2008-March 2010) and QE2 (August 2010-June 2011) both clarified the scale and rhythm of purchases when they were announced, so their withdrawal was also fully expected. However, when QE3 started, it did not specify the purchase scale and exit time. It only stated that \"asset purchases will continue until a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook is observed in the context of price stability.\" (purchases would continue until we saw a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability). Until the FOMC meeting statement released on May 1, 2013, the Federal Reserve stated: \"When the labor market or inflation outlook changes, the FOMC will be ready to accelerate or slow down the pace of asset purchases to keep policies appropriately loose.\" Release the Taper signal for the first time. Then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke further stated in the congressional hearing inquiry on May 22, 2013 that \"we will consider gradually slowing down the pace of asset purchases in the next few interest rate meetings\", further releasing the Taper signal. Since then, at the FOMC meetings in June, July, and September, Bernanke stated that \"the original scale of bond purchases will continue to be maintained\", and at the same time, \"if the economic, employment, and inflation data meet the conditions, it is appropriate to slow down the pace of bond purchases this year.\" appropriate \". At the interest rate meeting in October, the committee members began to talk about the timing and rhythm of Taper, but did not give an exact and unified signal.</p><p>At the December meeting, the Federal Reserve stated that the economy continues to make progress, the labor market continues to make meaningful cumulative progress, and inflation and inflation expectations are stable. Based on this, it decided to reduce bond purchases from next month. In January 2014, the Federal Reserve officially launched the Taper process, announcing a reduction of US $10 billion (including 5 billion UST and 5 billion MBS) at each meeting, until the end of QE3 was announced at the meeting in October of the same year. In the 2013-2014 Taper process, it took 7.5 months from the start of Taper talk to the official announcement of the reduction, and 10 months from the official start of Taper to the end of QE.</p><p>At the FOMC meeting in September 2015, 13/17 participants expected that the rate hike process would be launched in 2015, and the Federal Reserve released a rate hike signal. In December of the same year, the Federal Reserve raised the target range of Federal Funds rate to 0.25-0.50, starting the first rate hike process after the financial crisis.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19a5ca7dd72b3e5523d411341962c3e0\" tg-width=\"943\" tg-height=\"1005\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><b>2. The last round of Taper and rate hike's economic environment</b></p><p>Taper in 2013 was based on the conditions that the U.S. economy began to recover steadily after three rounds of QE, the labor market gradually repaired, and inflation stabilized. In terms of economic performance, the GDP growth rate of the United States began to rise steadily in 2012, with the annual economic growth rate of 2.3%. Bernanke also expressed optimistic expectations for the economic growth rate of 2013Q1 at the congressional hearing (Q1 GDP is expected to be 2.5% year-on-year). Since then, although the economic growth rate has declined slightly in Q1-Q2 of 2013, it has picked up again in Q3-Q4. The manufacturing PMI began to bottom out at the end of 2012, returning to above the boom-bust line, and reached the peak since QE3 in November 2013. When Taper was announced in December, the manufacturing PMI had far exceeded the pre-financial crisis level; Although the non-manufacturing PMI still lags behind that before the financial crisis, it has been stable above the boom-bust line. Supply-side industrial output and capacity utilization have stabilized, industrial output has returned to pre-financial crisis levels, and capacity utilization has recovered slightly and steadily. Demand-side retail sales continued to recover, with steady and positive year-on-year growth, and exceeded the pre-financial crisis level at the end of 2010. The inventory-to-sales ratio is at a relatively low point after the crisis, especially the retail inventory is significantly lower than the pre-crisis level. The real estate market has strengthened, and new housing starts and new housing sales have increased year-on-year since 2012.</p><p>The labor market continues to recover, the number of non-agricultural employment has grown steadily and positively, and the growth rate of non-agricultural employment has increased significantly in Q4 2013. Non-agricultural employment continued to recover, reaching more than 99% since June 2013, and returned to pre-crisis levels in January 2014. But the job market repair is still incomplete. The unemployment rate continues to decline. In December 2013, the unemployment rate of 6.7% was 1.4 percentage points lower than before QE3, but it was still higher than the Fed's target of 6.5%. The job vacancy rate continues to rise, and the labor force's willingness to find employment is not strong.</p><p>In terms of inflation, the inflation level has continued to run below the 2% target since QE3. Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in June 2013, it has acknowledged that continued inflation below the target value may bring risks to economic performance. However, the Fed believes that long-term inflation expectations are stable and expects inflation to gradually return to the 2% level.</p><p>After the end of QE3 in 2014, the U.S. GDP growth rate in Q1 2015 was 3.76%, the fastest growth rate since the financial crisis. Although the growth rate declined in subsequent Q2-Q3, it still maintained steady growth. The labor market has been further repaired, and non-agricultural employment has continued to grow steadily and positively; The unemployment rate fell below the target of 6.5% in April 2014, and dropped by another 1.5 percentage points by December 2015; The labor force participation rate remains in the range of 62%-63%. In terms of inflation, although the price index continues to be sluggish, there have been signs of recovery in Q4 2015. Considering the recovery of the job market, the Federal Reserve launched its first rate hike since the crisis in December 2015.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7be20f5808fa26e336fd3032f4735c2\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/fa456-e4e864df-59a8-45f4-b11c-87b3c58ac307.png\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4797691af42ed76eaaa4aee6a0e0368\" tg-width=\"605\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111a975e5de6c9d610c920634e8661a9\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"458\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: U.S. economic fundamentals data, data source wind</p><p><b>3. Asset price performance when the last round of easing policy was withdrawn</b></p><p>For the unprecedented large-scale asset purchase plan after the 2008 financial crisis, the market failed to fully expect the timing and rhythm of its closing. Therefore, after the Federal Reserve released the Taper signal for the first time on May 1, 2013, it triggered a Taper tantrum. Long-term U.S. bond yields rose rapidly by nearly 110BP within two months, and continued to fluctuate upward until the market's Taper expectations failed at the September FOMC meeting. US Treasury yields fell accordingly. After the official announcement of Taper on December 18, 2013, the market reaction was relatively flat. The 10-year US Treasury yields rose slightly and then began to fall for one year.</p><p>In 2015, the 10-year Treasury Bond interest rate generally fluctuated, mainly because oil prices dragged down inflation and inflation expectations, while rate hike expected to drive real interest rates upward, and the two played games repeatedly. After the rate hike started in December 2015, while inflation expectations continued to weaken, real interest rates also turned downward due to weak U.S. economic data, both of which dragged down US Treasury yields.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98c15f470a928687cebba2d4700759e\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108c0e1012418529278377668e65fba0\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Figure: U.S. Treasury Bond interest rate performance, data source wind</p><p>After Bernanke continued to release the Taper signal at a congressional hearing on May 22, 2013, U.S. stocks fell rapidly driven by the Taper tantrum. After the official announcement of Taper in December of the same year, U.S. stocks began to rebound. Overall, Taper did not have a great impact on U.S. stocks in 2013. Driven by economic recovery and corporate profit recovery, U.S. stocks still rose rapidly as a whole. After the rate hike process started in December 2015, U.S. stocks rose slightly and then fell sharply, mainly due to weakening fundamentals and inflation. It didn't pick up until February 2016 after inflation and fundamentals picked up.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e172aa53a0b812ebbcd4431b581997\" tg-width=\"659\" tg-height=\"386\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>Chart: Performance of the US S&P 500 Index, data source wind</p><p><h3>05</h3><h3>Outlook: Possible Deduction of the Fed's Monetary Policy in the Future</h3>Considering the uncertainty of the global epidemic, the growth momentum of the U.S. economy is more dependent on the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, the valuation of the U.S. stock market is at a historically high position, and the lack of communication when the Federal Reserve adjusted monetary policy in 2013, which triggered large fluctuations in the financial market, We tend to think that the Fed will be very prudent in reducing the scale of asset purchases in the coming period, relying more on the realized economic data, especially the job market data, rather than the market's expectations for future economic data. And the Federal Reserve will fully communicate with the market before starting to reduce the scale of asset purchases, so that the market can make full thinking and plans for this. In the future, the focus of investor games will shift from when to start Taper to reducing the scale of asset purchases and the adjustments made by the Federal Reserve during the Taper process.</p><p>In particular,<b>First, under the economic baseline scenario:</b>If the epidemic in the United States is basically controlled and the job market continues to recover steadily, that is, when the average monthly new non-farm employment from August to November is around 700,000-800,000, the Biden administration advocates fiscal stimulus The legislation is implemented in the fourth quarter, then the Federal Reserve will announce the specific content of this round of Taper at the November FOMC meeting. The December FOMC meeting announced the opening of Taper, reducing Treasury Bond purchases by US $10 billion and MBS purchases by US $5 billion per month. In terms of asset performance, the 10-year U.S. bond yield slowly climbed to 1.5% during the year, gold fluctuated in the range of $1,700-1,900, and U.S. stocks maintained their upward trend, but the S&P 500 could hardly rise by more than 5%. The impact on China's ten-year Treasury Bond is limited, the impact on China's undervalued equity assets is bullish, and the impact on international bulk varieties such as crude oil and copper is bullish.</p><p><b>Second, under the pessimistic economic scenario:</b>The current round of the epidemic in the United States has accelerated and worsened, restricting the improvement of social and economic activities. The recovery of the job market is less than expected. The advancement of the fiscal stimulus plan advocated by the Biden administration has been blocked or the scale of implementation has been reduced. The Federal Reserve will postpone the opening of Taper. In terms of asset performance, the ten-year U.S. bond yield will remain in the range of 1.0-1.2% during the year, gold is expected to exceed $1,900, U.S. stocks will rise and the Nasdaq is expected to perform better. It is bullish for China's ten-year Treasury Bond and bullish for China's equity market.</p><p><b>Third, under the optimistic economic scenario:</b>The current round of the epidemic in the United States was quickly brought under control. By the end of the year, the average monthly new non-farm employment exceeded 1 million. The U.S. government debt ceiling and Biden's fiscal plan were successfully resolved from September to October. The Federal Reserve may advance the opening of Taper to November. In terms of asset performance, the ten-year U.S. bond yield is expected to return to 1.7% during the year, gold will fall below $1,700, and U.S. stocks will show high fluctuations. The impact on China's ten-year Treasury Bond is negative, negative on China's highly valued equity assets, and bullish on crude oil.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485199\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4f265653009ef8be3e9588861c69d25","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485199","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2165912804","content_text":"转眼美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话已过一周，会议上整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调，并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场关心的缩减资产购买计划（Taper），鲍威尔并未给出明确的时间指引，但他表示“如果经济的发展大致符合预期，那么今年开始放慢资产购买的步伐可能是合适的”。后疫情时代的美国超宽松货币政策退出之路会如何演绎，会如何影响全球金融市场，是全球经济学家与投资者都持续关注的话题。投资者们是应该跟随着FED的预期引导还是去试图看清深层次相机抉择的核心因素。自08年金融危机以来，FED在退出这条路上其实已经积累了非常丰富的经验，值得我们一起从历史中寻找未来的指引。我们选择在会议之后喧嚣过后，试图客观地找寻未来的退出路径与概率。\n01\n美国疫情反复拖累经济修复\n疫情反复依然是四季度全球经济面临的不确定性之一。二季度以来，全球疫情出现显著反弹，Delta变异病毒持续扩散，先后在印度周边新兴市场国家，及英国、西班牙等发达市场国家迅速扩散。7月以来，美国疫情开启了本轮爆发，单日新增确诊病例快速攀升，单日新增死亡病例也呈现较快的回升趋势，截止8月末，美国本轮疫情尚未明确展现触顶回落的迹象。疫情反复对居民消费和服务业修复造成一定拖累，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数大幅回落超预期，美国Markit服务业PMI虽仍在扩张区间，但已连续三个月大幅下行。\n当前全球处于疫情持续扩散和疫苗加速接种同时进行的状态，这一现象在美国尤为明显。据美国疾控中心数据，截止8月末，全美接种一针疫苗人口占总人口的61.8%，接种两针疫苗人口占总人口的48.2%，相较于欧洲国家接种一针疫苗人口占比高于70%的水平而言，美国疫苗接种率相对较低。且美国疫苗接种速率自4月以来显著放缓，但7月本轮疫情爆发以来，疫苗接种速率小幅抬升，据媒体报道美国居民接种疫苗的积极性有所提高，美国政府也计划于9月开始提供疫苗加强针。除全民接种率相对较低外，美国居民疫苗接种呈现明显的区域分化，共和党领导州接种率显著低于民主党领导州，接种率较低的州也是本轮疫情反复较为严重的地区。参照高接种率国家如英国、以色列的经验来看，短期内美国将面对疫苗普及和病毒持续传播共存的局面。\n\n图：美国单日新增确诊和死亡病例，Wind\n\n图：美国疫苗接种区域分化明显，CDC\n02\n美国经济完全复苏尚有距离，内循环修复是核心\n当前美国经济距完全复苏尚有距离，疫情的再度反复和疫情特殊财政刺激的退出，大概率使得美国三季度经济增长动能边际放缓。疫后美国进行了三轮大规模财政刺激计划，特别是针对居民端发放的直接补贴，是本轮美国经济快速复苏的关键。美国居民消费支出约占其国内生产总值总额的68%，对国内生产总值有较为稳定的环比正向拉动。因此，当疫情特殊财政补贴逐渐到期后，美国居民消费支出的可持续性，是下半年美国经济增长稳定与否、结构性通胀压力能否缓解的重要不确定性。\n观察美国居民消费支出的可持续性，可以通过跟踪美国居民就业、收入、消费的内循环传导行为，还有美国居民消费信心和对通胀预期的变化。美国7月非农新增就业94.3万人，5月和6月新增就业均上修共计11.9万人，超市场预期。二季度以来，美国服务业就业持续改善，整体非农就业人数已修复至疫情前约96%分位。但美国就业市场依然面临供不应求的局面，7月劳动参与率61.7%，而疫情前为63.3%，6月职位空缺数上升至1007万人，而疫情前仅为500万人左右，说明企业招工需求旺盛但劳动力就业意愿不强。四季度美国就业市场有望持续修复，随着疫苗接种率的提升和疫情特殊失业补贴的到期，劳动力供给有望进一步释放。\n随着美国就业市场的持续改善，劳动力薪资收入对美国居民收入仍有支撑，收入增速不弱则四季度居民消费支出仍有保障。美国7月居民收入环比1.11%，其中个人转移支付收入贡献0.60%，雇员报酬贡献0.54%，薪资收入贡献连续三个月增长，今年以来薪资收入环比增速表现较强。美国7月居民支出环比0.27%，其中服务消费环比1%，耐用品消费环比-2.29%，非耐用品消费环比-0.38%，体现出美国居民消费重心正在由商品转向服务。一方面，居民耐用品消费的热情将随着疫情财政补贴的到期而降温，另一方面，随着疫苗普及和社会活动正常化，餐饮、旅游等服务消费仍有较大的修复空间。\n通胀方面，美国供给端产能持续修复，需求端居民消费结构正在发生变化，均有助于缓解当前美国通胀的结构性压力。美国7月CPI环比0.5%，核心CPI环比0.3%，相较于4月增速高点大幅回落，通胀环比增长压力减少。疫后美国通胀呈现较为明显的结构性分化，价格增长压力主要集中在部分行业，如汽车、运输服务等供需失衡较为严重的行业。往后看，美国工业产出持续修复，制造商延续补库存行为，有望进一步缓解供应紧张压力，商品价格增速有下行空间。但在居民消费由商品转向服务的过程中，可能会带来服务业价格短期高增速的情况，通胀高增速或阶段性持续。中长期来看，若美国就业市场供需关系趋向平衡，劳动力整体薪资增长压力或将有所缓解，参考亚特兰大联储薪资增长指数对各行业长期薪资收入水平的考察，多数行业总收入增长情况同疫情前差异不大。整体来看，通胀高增速大概率是临时的，中长期通胀中枢将回归美联储的合意区间，需密切关注不确定因素的扰动。\n\n图：美国就业市场持续修复，Wind\n\n图：美国居民消费结构由商品转向消费，Wind\n\n图：美国通胀结构分化明显，Bloomberg\n03\nTaper即将开启，特别关注美国财政政策\n美联储主席鲍威尔在8月27日的Jackson Hole全球央行会议上发表了“疫情时代的货币政策”讲话，整体维持同7月FOMC会议一致的鸽派论调，并未传达过多超预期的增量信息。对于市场关心的缩减资产购买计划（Taper），鲍威尔并未给出明确的时间指引，但他表示“如果经济的发展大致符合预期，那么今年开始放慢资产购买的步伐可能是合适的”，即如果美国就业市场维持良好的修复态势，通胀短期高增速压力有所缓解，那么今年内开启Taper已是大概率事件。近期美联储多位委员均向市场传达了支持开启Taper的观点，市场对此预期已较为充分。考虑到美联储重回数据依赖模式，货币政策调整基于已实现的经济数据，我们判断美联储希望确认就业市场在疫情特殊补助到期后的改善情况，即等待观察9月和10月的就业数据，那么9月FOMC会议给出明确的Taper信号，11月FOMC会议宣布Taper计划，12月FOMC会议开启Taper是我们判断的基准情景。据彭博调查显示，市场投资者普遍预期同基准情景一致，基本避免13年“缩减恐慌”的再度上演。\n美联储主席鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议上表示“即将进行的缩减资产购买的时机和速度，并不传递有关加息时机的直接信号，关于加息问题，我们已经明确表达了一个不同的、且更为严格的测试”，重申Taper和加息之间没有明确的关系。鲍威尔在7月FOMC发布会上曾表示“理想状态下，不会仍然在购买资产的同时提高利率”，参考上一轮美联储结束资产购买和首次加息相隔一年有余，我们判断的基准情景是，美联储本轮加息不会早于2022年四季度。诚然，距离美联储首次加息还有较长的时间，美国经济在此期间仍面临多方面的不确定性扰动，如疫情和疫苗的发展、就业市场的修复等，鲍威尔多次强调目前美国就业市场仍有600万劳动力未能重返岗位，其中500万来自深受疫情冲击的服务部门，且当前劳动参与率的修复表现疲弱。在美国经济尚未从疫情冲击中完全修复前，美联储有压低利率水平的需求，为金融和实体部门提供较低的融资成本。回顾美联储上一轮尝试回归货币政策正常化的过程，市场对利率快速抬升的预期往往对金融市场带来较大的扰动，特别是美股波动放大，不利于美联储维护金融市场稳定和实体部门信心。因此，未来美联储将谨慎且充分地同市场沟通加息计划，当前加息不是市场关注的主要矛盾。\n目前市场对美联储货币政策调整的预期已较为充分，而财政政策或是近期市场关注的焦点，或对美联储货币政策带来一定的约束。8月10日，美国参议院通过了总规模1.2万亿美元的基建计划，其中新增支出5500亿美元，整体开支时间约为5年，该计划在民主党领导的众议院通过概率极大。8月24日，美国众议院以微弱优势通过了3.5万亿美元的预算计划框架，两周前参议院已通过该预算计划框架，意味着民主党可以绕过共和党，通过预算和解流程完成该预算决议的立法。美国将于2022年举行中期选举，在此之前，拜登政府凭借民主党为参众两院多数党的优势加速推行其大规模财政刺激计划的概率极大，包括落实基建投资和民生保障，及提高企业和高收入群体税收。整体而言，拜登政府推行的积极财政计划将加大美国政府债务压力，或约束美联储退出宽松货币政策的节奏。据美国财政部数据，2020年2月至2021年7月，美国适销国债存量净增加4.78万亿美元，在此期间，美联储国债持有额净增加2.79万亿美元，占美国国债净增量的58.33%，美联储资产购买行为对美国国债市场的影响要远大于疫情前，特别是美联储加大了对通胀补偿债券的购买力度，一定程度上压低了长端美债实际利率中枢。美联储将于9月21-22日举行FOMC会议，在此之前美国财政政策的最新进展，包括对1.2万亿和3.5万亿美元财政刺激计划的推进、对美国政府债务上限的博弈，都可能对金融市场造成一定冲击。在美国新一轮财政刺激尘埃落定前，美联储保持谨慎观望态度的概率较大，任何超市场预期的鹰派信号都将进一步放大市场波动。\n综前所述，我们对美联储下一阶段货币政策的基本展望是：若美国就业市场，特别是服务业就业在8-11月稳步复苏，即月均新增非农就业在70-80万人左右的情况下，美联储将在11月FOMC会议宣布本轮Taper的具体内容，12月FOMC会议宣布开启Taper。参照市场一致预期判断，美联储将每月减少国债购买100亿美元，减少MBS购买50亿美元，按照当前每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元MBS的购买规模推算，同时参考14年美联储完成Taper的节奏，美联储或将用时8-10个月结束本轮资产购买计划。核心不确定性在于疫情发展和就业市场修复，若四季度美国疫情出现急速恶化、就业市场复苏中断，美联储将推迟Taper开启的时间。此外，当前市场对美联储即将开始Taper的预期已然充分，因此关键的影响变量在于减少资产购买的节奏。若拜登政府主张的新一轮财政刺激计划支出规模超预期，美联储或放缓紧缩节奏，采取如减少每月缩减规模、拉长调整缩减规模的时间间隔等调整。至于加息，仍不是当前市场关注的主要矛盾。若美国经济复苏符合当前强势预期，首次加息将不早于2022年四季度。据彭博WIRP统计预测，有投资者认为首次加息可能发生在2022年9月，在2023年1月FOMC会议上累计加息次数仅为0.8，即届时美联储仍将维持当前利率不变；据芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具统计预测，投资者认为美联储在2022年12月FOMC会议上加息的概率首次大于50%。在美联储完成缩减购债并衡量加息条件期间，全球经济增长所面临的不确定性因素较多，特别是疫情发展和政策走向，都需密切关注。\n\n图：WIRP，Bloomberg\n\n图：CME FedWatch Tool，CME\n04\n历史经验的回顾：2013年QE3 Taper与2015年加息回顾\n1.2013-2015年政策转向过程\n2008年金融危机后，美联储先后共进行了三次QE。其中QE1（2008年11月-2010年3月）和QE2（2010年8月-2011年6月）宣布时均明确了购买规模和节奏，因此其退出也得到了充分预期。但QE3开启时并未明确购买规模和退出时间，只声明了“资产购买将一直持续，直到在价格稳定的背景下观察到劳动力市场前景有实质性改善”（purchases would continue until we saw a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market in a context of price stability）。直到2013年5月1日释出的FOMC会议声明中，美联储表示：“当劳动力市场或通胀前景发生变化，FOMC将做好加快或放缓资产购买步伐的准备，以保持政策适当宽松”，首次释放出Taper信号。时任美联储主席伯南克在2013年5月22日国会听证会问询中进一步表示“将考虑在未来几次议息会议中开始逐步放缓资产购买速度”，进一步释放Taper信号。此后，在6月、7月、9月FOMC会议上，伯南克表示“将继续维持原有购债规模”，同时“若经济、就业和通胀数据满足条件，今年内放缓购债步伐是合适的”。在10月议息会议上，委员们开始谈论Taper时间和节奏，但并未给出确切统一的信号。\n12月会议上，美联储表示：经济持续取得进展，劳动力市场持续取得重要进展（meaningful cumulative progress），通胀和通胀预期稳定，基于此，决定从下个月开始缩减购债。2014年1月，美联储正式开启Taper进程，每次会议上宣布缩减100亿美元（其中50亿UST,50亿MBS），直到同年10月会议上宣布结束QE3。2013-2014年Taper进程中，从开始Taper talk到正式宣布减码用时7.5个月，从正式开启Taper到结束QE用时10个月。\n2015年9月FOMC会议上，13/17与会者预期2015年内将启动加息进程，美联储释放出加息信号。同年12月，美联储上调联邦基金利率目标区间至0.25-0.50，开启金融危机后的首次加息进程。\n\n2.上一轮Taper与加息的经济环境\n2013年Taper是基于三轮QE后美国经济开始稳定复苏、劳动力市场逐渐修复、通胀稳定的条件进行的。经济表现方面，2012年美国GDP增速开始稳定抬升，全年经济增速2.3%，伯南克在国会听证会上也表示了对2013Q1经济增速的乐观预期（预计Q1GDP同比2.5%）。此后虽然2013年Q1-Q2经济增速稍有回落，但Q3-Q4再次回升。制造业PMI于2012年末开始见底回升，重回荣枯线以上，并于2013年11月达到QE3以来的峰值，12月宣布Taper时制造业PMI已远超金融危机前水平；非制造业PMI虽然较金融危机前仍有差距，但一直表现稳定在荣枯线以上。供给端工业产出和产能利用率趋于稳定，工业产出已恢复至金融危机前水平，产能利用率小幅稳步修复。需求端零售销售持续修复，同比稳定正增长，并于2010年末超过金融危机前水平。库存销售比处于危机后相对低点，尤其是零售库存显著低于危机前水平。房地产市场走强，新屋开工和新房销售自2012年开始同比高增。\n劳动力市场持续修复，非农就业人数稳步正增长，非农就业增速于2013年Q4显著提升。非农就业持续修复，2013年6月起修复程度达99%以上，并于2014年1月恢复至危机前水平。但就业市场修复仍不完全。失业率水平持续下降，2013年12月失业率6.7%较QE3之前下降1.4个百分点，但仍高于美联储目标值6.5%。职位空缺率持续上升，劳动力就业意愿不强。\n通胀方面，QE3以来通胀水平持续在2%目标以下运行。美联储自2013年6月议息会议上承认，通胀持续低于目标值可能会给经济表现带来风险。但美联储认为长期通胀预期稳定，并预计通胀率将逐步回到2%水平。\n2014年结束QE3后，2015年Q1美国GDP增速3.76%，为金融危机以来最快增速，尽管后续Q2-Q3增速有所回落，但仍保持稳定增长。劳动力市场进一步修复，非农就业人数持续稳定正增长；失业率于2014年4月降至6.5%目标以下，至2015年12月再降1.5个百分点；劳动力参与率维持在62%-63%区间波动。通胀方面，尽管价格指数持续低迷，但2015年Q4已有回升迹象，考虑到就业市场修复情况，美联储于2015年12月开启危机后首次加息。\n\n\n\n\n图：美国经济基本面数据，数据来源wind\n3.上一轮宽松政策退出时资产价格表现\n对于08年金融危机后史无前例的大规模资产购买计划，市场对其收尾的时点和节奏未能形成充分预期。因此2013年5月1日美联储首次释放Taper信号后，引发了缩减恐慌，长端美债收益率在两个月内快速上行近110BP，并继续震荡上行直至9月FOMC会议上市场Taper预期落空后，美债利率随之下降。而2013年12月18日正式宣布Taper后，市场反应反而较为平淡，10年期美债利率小幅上扬后开始了长达1年的回落。\n2015年10年期国债利率总体震荡，主系油价拖累通胀和通胀预期，同时加息预期拉动实际利率上行，两者反复博弈。2015年12月开启加息后，通胀预期继续走弱的同时，实际利率也由于美国经济数据疲弱转而下行，两者共同拖累美债利率下行。\n\n\n图：美国国债利率表现，数据来源wind\n2013年5月22日伯南克在国会听证会上继续释放Taper信号后，美股在缩减恐慌驱动下快速下跌。同年12月正式宣布Taper后，美股开始反弹。总体2013年Taper并未对美股造成很大影响，在经济复苏和企业盈利修复驱动下，美股总体仍快速上涨。2015年12月开启加息进程后，美股小幅上扬后转而大幅下跌，主系基本面和通胀走弱。直到2016年2月通胀和基本面有所回暖后才有所回升。\n\n图：美国标普500指数表现，数据来源wind\n05\n展望：未来美联储货币政策的可能性推演\n考虑到全球疫情的不确定性、美国经济增长动能更加依赖货币与财政政策配合、美国股市估值处于历史较高位置，以及2013年美联储调整货币政策时沟通较少而引发了金融市场的大幅波动，我们倾向于认为未来一段时间美联储缩减资产购买规模将是非常审慎的，更多依赖于已经实现的经济数据，特别是就业市场的数据，而不是市场对未来经济数据的预期。并且美联储将在开启缩减资产购买规模之前将与市场进行充分的沟通，让市场对此做出充分的思考与预案。未来一段时间，投资者博弈的焦点将从何时开启Taper转为缩减资产购买的规模以及美联储Taper过程中所做的调整。\n具体而言，一是经济基准情景下：若美国疫情得到基本控制，就业市场持续稳步复苏，即8-11月月均新增非农就业在70-80万人左右的情况下，拜登政府主张的1.2万亿和3.5万亿美元财政刺激计划在四季度落实立法，那么美联储将在11月FOMC会议宣布本轮Taper的具体内容，12月FOMC会议宣布开启Taper，每月减少国债购买100亿美元，减少MBS购买50亿美元，用时8-10个月结束本轮资产购买计划，在2022年12月之前引导加息预期的概率较低。资产表现方面，年内十年期美债收益率缓慢攀升至1.5%，黄金在1700-1900美元区间震荡，美股维持涨势，但标普500涨幅难超5%。对中国十年期国债影响有限，对中国低估值权益资产偏利多，对原油、铜等国际大宗品种的影响偏利多。\n二是经济悲观情景下：美国本轮疫情加速恶化，制约社会经济活动改善，就业市场恢复不及预期，拜登政府主张的财政刺激计划推进受阻或落地规模缩小，美联储将推迟Taper开启的时间。资产表现方面，年内十年期美债收益率维持1.0-1.2%区间运行，黄金有望突破1900美元，美股上涨且纳斯达克表现有望更优。对中国十年期国债偏利多，对中国权益市场偏利多。\n三是经济乐观情景下：美国本轮疫情迅速得到控制，至年底月均新增非农就业超100万人，美国政府债务上限、拜登财政计划在9-10月顺利推进解决，美联储或将Taper开启提前至11月。资产表现方面，年内十年期美债收益率有望重回1.7%，黄金跌破1700美元，美股将呈现高位波动。对中国十年期国债影响偏利空，对中国高估值权益资产偏利空，对原油偏利多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SH":0.9,"QID":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817653569,"gmtCreate":1630944641251,"gmtModify":1676530426304,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817653569","repostId":"1145607463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817653280,"gmtCreate":1630944632740,"gmtModify":1676530426300,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817653280","repostId":"1169885756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}