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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-15
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Heavy interpretation! Causes and Antidotes of Global Supply Chain Dilemma
大多数消费者目前似乎还没有强烈感受到,全球几乎所有企业正在遭受的巨大挑战——全球供应链产生严重瓶颈所带来的紧张短缺、部分断裂的问题。这个问题不仅由于新冠疫情持续演变,也因过去商业模式所遗留下来的内在缺
Heavy interpretation! Causes and Antidotes of Global Supply Chain Dilemma
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小涩涩墩
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2021-09-13
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Key variables in overseas markets in September: pandemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal
疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。
Key variables in overseas markets in September: pandemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal
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小涩涩墩
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2021-09-13
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Key variables in overseas markets in September: pandemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal
疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。
Key variables in overseas markets in September: pandemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal
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小涩涩墩
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2021-09-12
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What are the most popular funds among Christians?
今天周末,Z哥还是照例给大家分享一些关于基金投资方面的思考。很多人都问Z哥,现在到底可以买哪些基金?通过这个数据,我们大概可以了解最受基民喜爱的基金到底是哪些?基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的“买者自负”原则,在投资者做出投资决策后,基金运营状况、基金份额上市交易价格波动与基金净值变化引致的投资风险,由投资者自行负责。
What are the most popular funds among Christians?
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-12
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-10
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-09
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Crude under pullback pressure as Fed slows pace of Taper
随着消息面利好逐步兑现,油价进一步上行驱动不足。
Crude under pullback pressure as Fed slows pace of Taper
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-07
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小涩涩墩
小涩涩墩
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2021-09-07
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小涩涩墩
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2021-09-07
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14:00","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"Heavy interpretation! Causes and Antidotes of Global Supply Chain Dilemma","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148030034","media":"中欧商业评论","summary":"大多数消费者目前似乎还没有强烈感受到,全球几乎所有企业正在遭受的巨大挑战——全球供应链产生严重瓶颈所带来的紧张短缺、部分断裂的问题。这个问题不仅由于新冠疫情持续演变,也因过去商业模式所遗留下来的内在缺","content":"<p>At present, most consumers don't seem to feel strongly the huge challenge that almost all businesses around the world are suffering-the tight shortage and partial breakage caused by severe bottlenecks in global supply chains. This problem is not only due to the ongoing evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, but also due to the inherent flaws of past business models and new geopolitical conflicts. For example, Toyota announced this month that it was cutting 40 percent of its global vehicle production in the face of a persistent shortage of semiconductor chips. Despite strong demand for products, metal components, plastics and other raw materials are not available in factories around the world. Construction companies are paying more for paint, wood and hardware, but have to wait weeks or even months to receive them…More worryingly, prices are starting to rise due to supply chain bottlenecks, likely to exacerbate inflation caused by excessive global currency issuance. Faced with severe challenges, China-Europe Business Review specially invited two professors, Li Ping and Shi Yongjiang, to explain the underlying reasons for serious bottlenecks in the global supply chain, and put forward feasible solutions to these problems. Delays, product shortages and rising costs have continued to plague businesses large and small and their users in recent months.</p><p>Managers and consumers have also begun to face an experience that was once rare in modern society: on the one hand, a large number of orders have flooded in, resulting in an instant shortage of capacity and then panic and anxiety; On the other hand, due to the inability to coordinate actions in the upstream, middle and downstream of the supply chain, the upstream raw materials are out of stock, the midstream work in progress is backlogged, and the downstream finished products cannot be offshore due to the lack of transportation capacity.</p><p>Now, we can't help but ask, what exactly is the reason for the current supply chain bottleneck?</p><p><b>Source of bottleneck</b></p><p><i>The short-term rebound of strong market demand is one of the most direct causes of global supply chain tension.</i></p><p>Unusual uncertainty persists in the outlook for global economic recovery, and \"supply chain bottlenecks\" are precisely the core factor of this uncertainty.</p><p>If the shortage continues into next year, it is likely to drive prices higher for a range of commodities. At present, central banks are focused on underlying inflation, one of which no one can answer with complete confidence, that shortages and delays only appear briefly as the economy recovers? Or will it become a serious hidden danger that lasts for a longer time?</p><p>On the surface, the recent rebound in strong market demand is one of the most immediate factors or causes of global supply chain tension. This problem largely reflects the unusual changes in market demand.</p><p>Consumers in the United States and other wealthy countries have been confined to their homes by the COVID-19 pandemic, driving them to buy products such as game consoles, treadmills and kitchen items for their homes, which has resulted in a shortage of products.</p><p>In addition, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, people were unable to travel for holidays, and the savings in this respect were diverted to purchasing other products, which also led to insufficient supply of such products.</p><p>Thirdly, the COVID-19 subsidies issued by the governments of the United States and other countries have also increased consumers' purchasing power and willingness, further increasing the degree of supply shortage.</p><p>During the pandemic, global supply chains are inevitably under pressure due to various lockdown measures. Apart from China, Southeast Asia, an important link in the global supply chain, has been severely hindered by the recent rebound of the epidemic, with Vietnam, Malaysia and other countries the most serious. Almost all of Vietnam is in a state of social isolation, and its manufacturing industry is facing three major crises, such as worker loss, order loss and capital loss.</p><p>Of course, in addition to the epidemic, extreme weather and natural disasters will also have a negative impact on the supply chain. However, this is only due to external problems caused by natural disasters, and the most serious is the problem of supply itself.</p><p>Most companies have underestimated the strength of the recent rebound in market demand, and have not booked enough spare parts and raw materials in advance, so they are unable to increase supply and output in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaac9405b608d58c20a650004d1a9c25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, all automobile companies around the world thought that the COVID-19 epidemic would seriously reduce and delay the purchase of cars in the market, so they greatly reduced the purchase orders of spare parts. However, they never expected that the market demand would rebound strongly in a short time, resulting in a serious shortage of spare parts at present, which could not meet the market demand. This belongs to the enterprise managers' judgment error, belongs to human error.</p><p>When the Chinese market showed a surprising recovery in the spring of 2020, an executive of a large Chinese car company said that the automobile industry had \"only ordered semiconductors and other components for three months, and had not drawn up an optimistic production plan\".</p><p>At the same time, the market demand in different industries rebounded almost at the same time, which also caught most enterprises off guard. The severe global shortage of semiconductor chips is closely related to this.</p><p>The automotive industry is struggling to get the chips it needs by not scheduling orders in advance, as the limited chip production capacity is mostly shifting to the more profitable electronics industry. A surprise increase in orders for televisions in Canada or Japan has exacerbated the chip shortage, forcing automakers to slow production from South Korea to Germany to Brazil.</p><p>More far-reaching are political factors beyond the control of enterprises. The important beginning of the global semiconductor shortage was the U.S. government's sanctions against mainland Chinese companies. Foundry companies such as SMIC have become targets of sanctions, and orders have flocked to Taiwan Province enterprises centered on the world's largest Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC).</p><p>Qualcomm of the United States took quick action, visiting Taiwan Province semiconductor companies such as TSMC and UMC, and placing a large number of orders to replace SMIC. In addition, Taiwanese companies such as TSMC have entered a rare busy period since July due to the U.S. government's tightening of sanctions on Huawei, as Huawei placed an unusually large number of orders in advance to stock up on the chips it needs before the new sanctions kick off in September.</p><p><b>Difficulties in shipping</b></p><p><i>The serious bottleneck caused by transportation leads to difficult transportation capacity, skyrocketing freight rates and delayed delivery.</i></p><p>To make the above difficulties worse, there are huge challenges in the field of shipping.</p><p>Specifically, starting in March this year, as global shipping costs skyrocketed, many commodities became scarce, leaving the shipping industry overwhelmed by large shipping containers. First, a giant cargo ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, and hundreds of cargo ships were blocked, halting traffic on the key shipping route connecting Europe to Asia for a week. The negative impact of the Suez Canal, which serves as a route for about 12% of world trade, has continued for many months, adding to the chaos in the maritime industry.</p><p>The chaos was later compounded by a series of temporary COVID-related port closures in China, including Shenzhen, Yantai, Ningbo and others. A large number of products needed to be shipped from ports in China to countries around the world, and the closure of these ports became a snowball event that rippled across the globe, even threatening the supply of goods for the Black Friday promotion after Thanksgiving in U.S. stores.</p><p>Coupled with the surge in global consumer demand, the volume of orders in the shipping industry continued to increase. The arrival volume of U.S. ports continues to set records, but due to the shortage of labor, containers and ships, there is a situation of port congestion, resulting in large logistics delays. For example, because containers arriving in Los Angeles could not be unloaded, there were no containers for soybeans in Iowa, and buyers in Indonesia had to wait, triggering a shortage of animal feed in Southeast Asia.</p><p>Cheap and reliable shipping has long been an important part of international trade, allowing manufacturers to move production around the world in search of low-wage labor and cheap raw materials. But the cost of shipping goods from Asia to the U.S. has risen as much as 10-fold since Covid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6889cf56496f4337b656dcfd7a8db85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the pandemic, it cost $6,000-7,000 to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the Midwest, but the next shipment scheduled to leave China in mid-September is already at least $26,000; Combine that with difficulties due to U.S. rail and trucking, and freight rates are likely to rise to $35,000.</p><p>Typically, the peak of trans-Pacific freight demand begins in the late summer and ends in the winter, after the cargo is ready during the holiday season at the end of the year. But last winter's peak in freight demand never ended, and now it has converged with this year's holiday season shopping surge, adding to the pressure on factories, warehouses, cargo ships and trucks.</p><p>Today, the state of affairs inside China has heightened fears about the future. Many enterprises face anomalies that haven't been seen in decades. On the one hand, the order production is too busy, on the other hand, the product inventory is seriously backlogged and cannot be delivered. This is because of serious bottlenecks in transportation, difficult capacity, skyrocketing freight rates and delayed delivery.</p><p>What is even more worrying is that prices have started to rise due to supply chain bottlenecks, which is likely to exacerbate inflation caused by excessive global currency issuance. This is the consequence that everyone is most worried about and least willing to see.</p><p><b>Deep trap</b></p><p><i>Global enterprises will face profound challenges in the long run and need to restructure the global supply chain of their businesses.</i></p><p>Influenced by the success of Toyota's production model, many companies have adopted lean production versus Just in Time (JIT) to minimize inventory and other wastes. This is effective in cutting costs and improving profits, but it also leaves very little room for correction.</p><p>The study found that from 1981 to 2000, American companies reduced inventories by an average of 2% every year, and the savings were used to buy back listed stocks, further pushing up stock market prices. If the enterprise is in a relatively stable situation, such as the long-term peaceful development stage after World War II, Toyota's production mode appears to be extremely effective.</p><p>Once the situation becomes highly chaotic, particularly in the VUCA + era (variability, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity and novelty), the inherent flaws of Toyota's production model are increasingly exposed. Once there is a problem in any part of the supply chain system, the whole system will generate bottlenecks and even break to varying degrees.</p><p>In other words, because Toyota's production model is built on the underlying logic of tight coupling in the field of resource management, this model seriously lacks resilience, and lacks the ability to respond in time and rebound quickly after encountering sudden crises. tight coupling can only play a high-efficiency role in high-latitude scenarios.</p><p>But scene changes, especially sudden changes, turn this coupling into a shackle that hinders the exertion of resilience. This deep problem should be raised to the height of paradigm shift (i.e., VUCA + paradigm), given sufficient attention, and effectively solved as soon as possible. This is the first deep cause of supply chain bottlenecks right now.</p><p>The second underlying reason is even deeper, namely, the unsustainable development of the previous globalization paradigm itself. The core connotation of this problem is that global production and supply are too concentrated in a few countries, or even only one country (such as China, which has become the so-called \"world factory\"), just for the largest market and the lowest labor cost.</p><p>The world has learned a painful lesson: thousands of miles apart, otherwise relatively independent pluralistic economies are so tightly tied together that delays and shortages anywhere can ripple through almost every other part of the world. This COVID-19 epidemic is the most vivid embodiment of the drawbacks of this economic development paradigm, which has been intentionally ignored or even maliciously covered up for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db6eab0fab28134ec77b33b485e11a4c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In other words, out of its greedy nature, short-term capital, under the banner that globalization is beneficial to people all over the world, uses the business model that is most beneficial to employers, pursues the maximization of single financial returns, deliberately ignores or even maliciously covers up the potential risks and harms caused by this paradigm to society, especially to the long-term interests of other stakeholders.</p><p>The global layout of supply chain objectively leads to the long geographical distance between production facilities and retail consumption, the increase of multiple links of logistics and distribution, and the increase of operational complexity. The direct consequence is the increase of operational risks and the difficulty of controlling them. At present, the bottleneck of shipping also vividly reflects what is wrong with the global economic development paradigm.</p><p>A UK company that makes packaged food sealing machines is struggling to secure supplies of the components it needs. The company's suppliers in Japan would have delivered critical equipment in four to six weeks, but now it takes half a year. The Japanese supplier has struggled to secure the electronic components it needs, most of which are made in Asia and cannot be replaced elsewhere. Coupled with automakers' desperation to get chips, it makes it harder for businesses in other industries to get parts that are already in dire shortages. This is the embodiment of close coupling in the field of geographical layout, which is the second deep reason.</p><p>The third deep reason is related to the rise of China after globalization. After the end of the Cold War, Fukuyama and others believed that history had come to an end, and that market economy and * * would become a unified template for future development. However, no one expected that since China joined the WTO, it not only became more powerful, but also started to quietly create its own rules of the game, which led to the challenge of the existing global economic system.</p><p>This eventually triggered a fierce Sino-US trade war and a series of subsequent geopolitical-oriented sides, which made China and Western developed countries start to part ways in terms of economic and political systems. Under this basic pattern, whether it is Chinese multinational companies or local enterprises, or multinational companies in other countries, all are facing an unprecedented and profound challenge, that is, how to restructure the global supply chain of their business.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Reconstruction</b></p><p><i>The long-term response strategy of supply chain bottleneck should take organizational resilience as its underlying logic.</i></p><p>We believe that the short-term response strategy to supply chain bottlenecks is based on weathering immediate difficulties. We propose some alternative strategies from the perspective of how Chinese enterprises respond.</p><p><ul><li>Chinese enterprises experiencing delivery delays should try to renegotiate new contracts with the other party, imploring the other party to understand the difficulties caused by special circumstances, especially those caused by force majeure conditions (rather than their own human error), and to minimize compensation losses.</p><p></li><li>Chinese enterprises need to pay special attention to cash flow, ensure that they have basically enough liquidity, and avoid the break of capital chain in order to successfully tide over the difficulties.</p><p></li><li>Chinese enterprises can make full use of the government's current policy of supporting \"specialized, special and new small giants\" enterprises, strengthen the necessary research and development to break through technical bottlenecks, and strive to build themselves to become future invisible (single item/fine one) champions. We believe that this is the most significant national policy at present and for a long time to come, and hope to attract the attention of more Chinese enterprises.</p><p></li></ul>On the other hand, we advocate that the long-term response strategy to supply chain bottlenecks should take organizational resilience as its underlying logic, so as to overcome various problems caused by the deep reasons mentioned above, including instant production mode, geographical concentration, and serious conflict between China and the United States.</p><p>The definition of resilience varies in different fields, but it is largely the same. The core essence of toughness is the ability to rebound: the higher the toughness, the greater the potential to continue functioning under deformation pressure. However, in the field of management, the concept of resilience has been extended and developed, mainly in terms of surpassing the ability to rebound.</p><p>We believe that organizational resilience mainly contains two dimensions. The first dimension is that after experiencing adversity and crisis situations, a certain enterprise can recover and continue to survive faster and more effectively than other enterprises in the industry.</p><p>\"Wildfires can't be burned out, but the spring breeze blows again\". This is generally consistent with the concept of resilience in the engineering field, and its main function is to deal with the negative threats posed by adversity crises.</p><p>The second dimension is that after experiencing the impact of adversity and crisis situation, a certain enterprise can surpass the rebound and survive faster and more effectively than other enterprises in this industry, achieve improvement, overtaking and more vitality, and reach a higher level than before the adversity and crisis situation. This is like \"anti-fragility\" or \"anti-fragility\" that gets stronger with frustration.</p><p>This is why adversity can hone perseverance and promote faster maturity of individuals and organizations. As the saying goes, \"Since ancient times, heroes have suffered, and dandys have been young men.\" Sun Wukong experienced hardships in Taishang Laojun's alchemy furnace, and refined \"fiery eyes and golden eyes\", which is an example of improvement surpassing.</p><p>The second dimension of organizational resilience is obviously different from the concept of resilience in engineering field, so it is an important extension and development of organizational resilience. Its main function is to deal with the positive opportunities brought by adversity and crisis.</p><p>In particular, many people conflate resilience with resistance to a blow or robustness. However, there is an essential difference between resilience and resistance: the latter will not be damaged by adversity and crisis situations, and certainly does not need to rebound or overtake, while the former must be severely damaged after being hit, but can resume the rebound or even improve the overtake.</p><p>An image metaphor is rubber band, whose elasticity reflects the resilience and forward momentum of toughness, but it is not absorption or tolerance, nor is it general adaptability.</p><p>Therefore, \"recovery and rebound\" and \"improvement and overtaking\" are the two core intrinsic characteristics of resilience. Resistance is similar to the \"strong grass\" in \"strong wind knows strong grass\" mentioned in \"Dongguan Han Ji: Wang Ba Zhuan\".</p><p>Different from this, the key to resilience lies not in resistance, but in rebound and anti-superpower. As the famous saying in Mencius Tell the World says, \"Therefore, when the heavens will give a great responsibility to Sri Lanka, they must first suffer their minds, strain their muscles and bones, hunger their bodies and skin, empty their bodies, and mess with their actions. Therefore, the temptation to endure will benefit them from what they can't.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6152a9c451daa7f57cffad7c12a7c74a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In short, organizational resilience is the core ability of enterprises to cope with adversity and crisis in today's VUCA + era, including two dimensions: rebound recovery and overtaking improvement. We believe that organizational resilience is mainly reflected in the following aspects:</p><p><ul><li>The idea of zero inventory advocated by lean model and instant model should be changed into moderate inventory, and different inventory degrees should be arranged according to different situations. At the weakest bottlenecks of the supply chain, more inventory is required, and other resources are moderately redundant (slack), while elsewhere, inventory and other redundant resources can be minimized.</p><p></li><li>It is necessary to moderately disperse the geographical layout of suppliers, and not to rely too much on the only supplier in one place to avoid risks. Folk experience is true, you should not put all your eggs in one basket.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Effectively ensure the smooth circulation between domestic and international dual circulation, including spreading market demand and parts supply among different developed and developing countries.</p><p></li><li>Overseas mergers and acquisitions of hidden champions may be the most long-term investment, but the mergers and acquisitions need to be flexible, and you can participate in minority investments to strengthen the mutual trust between both parties.</p><p></li><li>There is a need to strengthen cooperation with relatively neutral geopolitical countries, such as Vietnam and certain African countries that are well-qualified.</p><p></li><li>Developed countries with empty local manufacturing industries are beginning to realize the long-term significance of the current crisis and will seek alternative solutions, especially alternatives to building local core supply chains. This is significant for the restructuring of existing supply chains worldwide. China needs to keep a close eye on this and prepare for the end of the rain.</p><p></li><li>Similarly, China needs to make breakthroughs in certain \"stuck neck\" areas to form a pattern of mutual dependence and mutual restriction with other competing countries, similar to the containment pattern among nuclear-weapon states.</p><p></li><li>In the face of Sino-US decoupling in some areas, China needs to pay special attention and actively participate in the formulation of global industry standards. In addition, Chinese companies need to learn to deal with the future pattern of two competing industry standard systems in important industries around the world.</p><p></li></ul>Faced with the increasingly obvious VUCA + scenario, the market is increasingly demanding supply chain resilience, as any accidental delay may be amplified to one industry, or upstream and downstream of several industries' supply chains.</p><p>We believe that it is necessary to fundamentally change the mainstream management paradigm and business model of enterprises based on short-term financial returns. Without this profound paradigm shift, after the crisis eases, most enterprises will heal their scars and forget the pain, and gradually return to the old road.</p><p>This is a management revolution that requires long-term efforts to rebuild a sustainable management paradigm and business model that balances the rights and interests of multiple stakeholders in the long term.</p><p>It should be pointed out in particular that the current emerging trend of \"anti-globalization\" is not a complete negation of the previous globalization paradigm, but only a partial correction, that is, a shift from the extremely paranoid globalization paradigm to the future globalization paradigm with long-term sustained and balanced development.</p><p>According to the 2018 report of China's foreign investment, in 2017, foreign-funded enterprises only accounted for less than 3% of the total number of enterprises in China, but they created nearly 1/2 of foreign trade, 1/4 of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size, 1/5 of the tax revenue, and more than 45 million direct employees (accounting for more than 10% of the domestic urban employed population, excluding indirect employment brought by upstream and downstream related industries).</p><p>Therefore, we need to adhere to the basic national policy of reform and opening up, and ensure the organic balance between internal and external circulation in the \"double circulation\". Similar to the important role of private enterprises in economic development, the unique role of foreign-funded enterprises is also irreplaceable.</p>","source":"lsy1567750882116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Heavy interpretation! Causes and Antidotes of Global Supply Chain Dilemma</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHeavy interpretation! Causes and Antidotes of Global Supply Chain Dilemma\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中欧商业评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-15 14:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At present, most consumers don't seem to feel strongly the huge challenge that almost all businesses around the world are suffering-the tight shortage and partial breakage caused by severe bottlenecks in global supply chains. This problem is not only due to the ongoing evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, but also due to the inherent flaws of past business models and new geopolitical conflicts. For example, Toyota announced this month that it was cutting 40 percent of its global vehicle production in the face of a persistent shortage of semiconductor chips. Despite strong demand for products, metal components, plastics and other raw materials are not available in factories around the world. Construction companies are paying more for paint, wood and hardware, but have to wait weeks or even months to receive them…More worryingly, prices are starting to rise due to supply chain bottlenecks, likely to exacerbate inflation caused by excessive global currency issuance. Faced with severe challenges, China-Europe Business Review specially invited two professors, Li Ping and Shi Yongjiang, to explain the underlying reasons for serious bottlenecks in the global supply chain, and put forward feasible solutions to these problems. Delays, product shortages and rising costs have continued to plague businesses large and small and their users in recent months.</p><p>Managers and consumers have also begun to face an experience that was once rare in modern society: on the one hand, a large number of orders have flooded in, resulting in an instant shortage of capacity and then panic and anxiety; On the other hand, due to the inability to coordinate actions in the upstream, middle and downstream of the supply chain, the upstream raw materials are out of stock, the midstream work in progress is backlogged, and the downstream finished products cannot be offshore due to the lack of transportation capacity.</p><p>Now, we can't help but ask, what exactly is the reason for the current supply chain bottleneck?</p><p><b>Source of bottleneck</b></p><p><i>The short-term rebound of strong market demand is one of the most direct causes of global supply chain tension.</i></p><p>Unusual uncertainty persists in the outlook for global economic recovery, and \"supply chain bottlenecks\" are precisely the core factor of this uncertainty.</p><p>If the shortage continues into next year, it is likely to drive prices higher for a range of commodities. At present, central banks are focused on underlying inflation, one of which no one can answer with complete confidence, that shortages and delays only appear briefly as the economy recovers? Or will it become a serious hidden danger that lasts for a longer time?</p><p>On the surface, the recent rebound in strong market demand is one of the most immediate factors or causes of global supply chain tension. This problem largely reflects the unusual changes in market demand.</p><p>Consumers in the United States and other wealthy countries have been confined to their homes by the COVID-19 pandemic, driving them to buy products such as game consoles, treadmills and kitchen items for their homes, which has resulted in a shortage of products.</p><p>In addition, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, people were unable to travel for holidays, and the savings in this respect were diverted to purchasing other products, which also led to insufficient supply of such products.</p><p>Thirdly, the COVID-19 subsidies issued by the governments of the United States and other countries have also increased consumers' purchasing power and willingness, further increasing the degree of supply shortage.</p><p>During the pandemic, global supply chains are inevitably under pressure due to various lockdown measures. Apart from China, Southeast Asia, an important link in the global supply chain, has been severely hindered by the recent rebound of the epidemic, with Vietnam, Malaysia and other countries the most serious. Almost all of Vietnam is in a state of social isolation, and its manufacturing industry is facing three major crises, such as worker loss, order loss and capital loss.</p><p>Of course, in addition to the epidemic, extreme weather and natural disasters will also have a negative impact on the supply chain. However, this is only due to external problems caused by natural disasters, and the most serious is the problem of supply itself.</p><p>Most companies have underestimated the strength of the recent rebound in market demand, and have not booked enough spare parts and raw materials in advance, so they are unable to increase supply and output in the short term.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaac9405b608d58c20a650004d1a9c25\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For example, all automobile companies around the world thought that the COVID-19 epidemic would seriously reduce and delay the purchase of cars in the market, so they greatly reduced the purchase orders of spare parts. However, they never expected that the market demand would rebound strongly in a short time, resulting in a serious shortage of spare parts at present, which could not meet the market demand. This belongs to the enterprise managers' judgment error, belongs to human error.</p><p>When the Chinese market showed a surprising recovery in the spring of 2020, an executive of a large Chinese car company said that the automobile industry had \"only ordered semiconductors and other components for three months, and had not drawn up an optimistic production plan\".</p><p>At the same time, the market demand in different industries rebounded almost at the same time, which also caught most enterprises off guard. The severe global shortage of semiconductor chips is closely related to this.</p><p>The automotive industry is struggling to get the chips it needs by not scheduling orders in advance, as the limited chip production capacity is mostly shifting to the more profitable electronics industry. A surprise increase in orders for televisions in Canada or Japan has exacerbated the chip shortage, forcing automakers to slow production from South Korea to Germany to Brazil.</p><p>More far-reaching are political factors beyond the control of enterprises. The important beginning of the global semiconductor shortage was the U.S. government's sanctions against mainland Chinese companies. Foundry companies such as SMIC have become targets of sanctions, and orders have flocked to Taiwan Province enterprises centered on the world's largest Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC).</p><p>Qualcomm of the United States took quick action, visiting Taiwan Province semiconductor companies such as TSMC and UMC, and placing a large number of orders to replace SMIC. In addition, Taiwanese companies such as TSMC have entered a rare busy period since July due to the U.S. government's tightening of sanctions on Huawei, as Huawei placed an unusually large number of orders in advance to stock up on the chips it needs before the new sanctions kick off in September.</p><p><b>Difficulties in shipping</b></p><p><i>The serious bottleneck caused by transportation leads to difficult transportation capacity, skyrocketing freight rates and delayed delivery.</i></p><p>To make the above difficulties worse, there are huge challenges in the field of shipping.</p><p>Specifically, starting in March this year, as global shipping costs skyrocketed, many commodities became scarce, leaving the shipping industry overwhelmed by large shipping containers. First, a giant cargo ship ran aground in the Suez Canal, and hundreds of cargo ships were blocked, halting traffic on the key shipping route connecting Europe to Asia for a week. The negative impact of the Suez Canal, which serves as a route for about 12% of world trade, has continued for many months, adding to the chaos in the maritime industry.</p><p>The chaos was later compounded by a series of temporary COVID-related port closures in China, including Shenzhen, Yantai, Ningbo and others. A large number of products needed to be shipped from ports in China to countries around the world, and the closure of these ports became a snowball event that rippled across the globe, even threatening the supply of goods for the Black Friday promotion after Thanksgiving in U.S. stores.</p><p>Coupled with the surge in global consumer demand, the volume of orders in the shipping industry continued to increase. The arrival volume of U.S. ports continues to set records, but due to the shortage of labor, containers and ships, there is a situation of port congestion, resulting in large logistics delays. For example, because containers arriving in Los Angeles could not be unloaded, there were no containers for soybeans in Iowa, and buyers in Indonesia had to wait, triggering a shortage of animal feed in Southeast Asia.</p><p>Cheap and reliable shipping has long been an important part of international trade, allowing manufacturers to move production around the world in search of low-wage labor and cheap raw materials. But the cost of shipping goods from Asia to the U.S. has risen as much as 10-fold since Covid.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6889cf56496f4337b656dcfd7a8db85\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"622\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Before the pandemic, it cost $6,000-7,000 to ship a 40-foot container from Shanghai to the Midwest, but the next shipment scheduled to leave China in mid-September is already at least $26,000; Combine that with difficulties due to U.S. rail and trucking, and freight rates are likely to rise to $35,000.</p><p>Typically, the peak of trans-Pacific freight demand begins in the late summer and ends in the winter, after the cargo is ready during the holiday season at the end of the year. But last winter's peak in freight demand never ended, and now it has converged with this year's holiday season shopping surge, adding to the pressure on factories, warehouses, cargo ships and trucks.</p><p>Today, the state of affairs inside China has heightened fears about the future. Many enterprises face anomalies that haven't been seen in decades. On the one hand, the order production is too busy, on the other hand, the product inventory is seriously backlogged and cannot be delivered. This is because of serious bottlenecks in transportation, difficult capacity, skyrocketing freight rates and delayed delivery.</p><p>What is even more worrying is that prices have started to rise due to supply chain bottlenecks, which is likely to exacerbate inflation caused by excessive global currency issuance. This is the consequence that everyone is most worried about and least willing to see.</p><p><b>Deep trap</b></p><p><i>Global enterprises will face profound challenges in the long run and need to restructure the global supply chain of their businesses.</i></p><p>Influenced by the success of Toyota's production model, many companies have adopted lean production versus Just in Time (JIT) to minimize inventory and other wastes. This is effective in cutting costs and improving profits, but it also leaves very little room for correction.</p><p>The study found that from 1981 to 2000, American companies reduced inventories by an average of 2% every year, and the savings were used to buy back listed stocks, further pushing up stock market prices. If the enterprise is in a relatively stable situation, such as the long-term peaceful development stage after World War II, Toyota's production mode appears to be extremely effective.</p><p>Once the situation becomes highly chaotic, particularly in the VUCA + era (variability, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity and novelty), the inherent flaws of Toyota's production model are increasingly exposed. Once there is a problem in any part of the supply chain system, the whole system will generate bottlenecks and even break to varying degrees.</p><p>In other words, because Toyota's production model is built on the underlying logic of tight coupling in the field of resource management, this model seriously lacks resilience, and lacks the ability to respond in time and rebound quickly after encountering sudden crises. tight coupling can only play a high-efficiency role in high-latitude scenarios.</p><p>But scene changes, especially sudden changes, turn this coupling into a shackle that hinders the exertion of resilience. This deep problem should be raised to the height of paradigm shift (i.e., VUCA + paradigm), given sufficient attention, and effectively solved as soon as possible. This is the first deep cause of supply chain bottlenecks right now.</p><p>The second underlying reason is even deeper, namely, the unsustainable development of the previous globalization paradigm itself. The core connotation of this problem is that global production and supply are too concentrated in a few countries, or even only one country (such as China, which has become the so-called \"world factory\"), just for the largest market and the lowest labor cost.</p><p>The world has learned a painful lesson: thousands of miles apart, otherwise relatively independent pluralistic economies are so tightly tied together that delays and shortages anywhere can ripple through almost every other part of the world. This COVID-19 epidemic is the most vivid embodiment of the drawbacks of this economic development paradigm, which has been intentionally ignored or even maliciously covered up for a long time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db6eab0fab28134ec77b33b485e11a4c\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"379\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p>In other words, out of its greedy nature, short-term capital, under the banner that globalization is beneficial to people all over the world, uses the business model that is most beneficial to employers, pursues the maximization of single financial returns, deliberately ignores or even maliciously covers up the potential risks and harms caused by this paradigm to society, especially to the long-term interests of other stakeholders.</p><p>The global layout of supply chain objectively leads to the long geographical distance between production facilities and retail consumption, the increase of multiple links of logistics and distribution, and the increase of operational complexity. The direct consequence is the increase of operational risks and the difficulty of controlling them. At present, the bottleneck of shipping also vividly reflects what is wrong with the global economic development paradigm.</p><p>A UK company that makes packaged food sealing machines is struggling to secure supplies of the components it needs. The company's suppliers in Japan would have delivered critical equipment in four to six weeks, but now it takes half a year. The Japanese supplier has struggled to secure the electronic components it needs, most of which are made in Asia and cannot be replaced elsewhere. Coupled with automakers' desperation to get chips, it makes it harder for businesses in other industries to get parts that are already in dire shortages. This is the embodiment of close coupling in the field of geographical layout, which is the second deep reason.</p><p>The third deep reason is related to the rise of China after globalization. After the end of the Cold War, Fukuyama and others believed that history had come to an end, and that market economy and * * would become a unified template for future development. However, no one expected that since China joined the WTO, it not only became more powerful, but also started to quietly create its own rules of the game, which led to the challenge of the existing global economic system.</p><p>This eventually triggered a fierce Sino-US trade war and a series of subsequent geopolitical-oriented sides, which made China and Western developed countries start to part ways in terms of economic and political systems. Under this basic pattern, whether it is Chinese multinational companies or local enterprises, or multinational companies in other countries, all are facing an unprecedented and profound challenge, that is, how to restructure the global supply chain of their business.</p><p><b>The Bureau of Reconstruction</b></p><p><i>The long-term response strategy of supply chain bottleneck should take organizational resilience as its underlying logic.</i></p><p>We believe that the short-term response strategy to supply chain bottlenecks is based on weathering immediate difficulties. We propose some alternative strategies from the perspective of how Chinese enterprises respond.</p><p><ul><li>Chinese enterprises experiencing delivery delays should try to renegotiate new contracts with the other party, imploring the other party to understand the difficulties caused by special circumstances, especially those caused by force majeure conditions (rather than their own human error), and to minimize compensation losses.</p><p></li><li>Chinese enterprises need to pay special attention to cash flow, ensure that they have basically enough liquidity, and avoid the break of capital chain in order to successfully tide over the difficulties.</p><p></li><li>Chinese enterprises can make full use of the government's current policy of supporting \"specialized, special and new small giants\" enterprises, strengthen the necessary research and development to break through technical bottlenecks, and strive to build themselves to become future invisible (single item/fine one) champions. We believe that this is the most significant national policy at present and for a long time to come, and hope to attract the attention of more Chinese enterprises.</p><p></li></ul>On the other hand, we advocate that the long-term response strategy to supply chain bottlenecks should take organizational resilience as its underlying logic, so as to overcome various problems caused by the deep reasons mentioned above, including instant production mode, geographical concentration, and serious conflict between China and the United States.</p><p>The definition of resilience varies in different fields, but it is largely the same. The core essence of toughness is the ability to rebound: the higher the toughness, the greater the potential to continue functioning under deformation pressure. However, in the field of management, the concept of resilience has been extended and developed, mainly in terms of surpassing the ability to rebound.</p><p>We believe that organizational resilience mainly contains two dimensions. The first dimension is that after experiencing adversity and crisis situations, a certain enterprise can recover and continue to survive faster and more effectively than other enterprises in the industry.</p><p>\"Wildfires can't be burned out, but the spring breeze blows again\". This is generally consistent with the concept of resilience in the engineering field, and its main function is to deal with the negative threats posed by adversity crises.</p><p>The second dimension is that after experiencing the impact of adversity and crisis situation, a certain enterprise can surpass the rebound and survive faster and more effectively than other enterprises in this industry, achieve improvement, overtaking and more vitality, and reach a higher level than before the adversity and crisis situation. This is like \"anti-fragility\" or \"anti-fragility\" that gets stronger with frustration.</p><p>This is why adversity can hone perseverance and promote faster maturity of individuals and organizations. As the saying goes, \"Since ancient times, heroes have suffered, and dandys have been young men.\" Sun Wukong experienced hardships in Taishang Laojun's alchemy furnace, and refined \"fiery eyes and golden eyes\", which is an example of improvement surpassing.</p><p>The second dimension of organizational resilience is obviously different from the concept of resilience in engineering field, so it is an important extension and development of organizational resilience. Its main function is to deal with the positive opportunities brought by adversity and crisis.</p><p>In particular, many people conflate resilience with resistance to a blow or robustness. However, there is an essential difference between resilience and resistance: the latter will not be damaged by adversity and crisis situations, and certainly does not need to rebound or overtake, while the former must be severely damaged after being hit, but can resume the rebound or even improve the overtake.</p><p>An image metaphor is rubber band, whose elasticity reflects the resilience and forward momentum of toughness, but it is not absorption or tolerance, nor is it general adaptability.</p><p>Therefore, \"recovery and rebound\" and \"improvement and overtaking\" are the two core intrinsic characteristics of resilience. Resistance is similar to the \"strong grass\" in \"strong wind knows strong grass\" mentioned in \"Dongguan Han Ji: Wang Ba Zhuan\".</p><p>Different from this, the key to resilience lies not in resistance, but in rebound and anti-superpower. As the famous saying in Mencius Tell the World says, \"Therefore, when the heavens will give a great responsibility to Sri Lanka, they must first suffer their minds, strain their muscles and bones, hunger their bodies and skin, empty their bodies, and mess with their actions. Therefore, the temptation to endure will benefit them from what they can't.\"</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6152a9c451daa7f57cffad7c12a7c74a\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In short, organizational resilience is the core ability of enterprises to cope with adversity and crisis in today's VUCA + era, including two dimensions: rebound recovery and overtaking improvement. We believe that organizational resilience is mainly reflected in the following aspects:</p><p><ul><li>The idea of zero inventory advocated by lean model and instant model should be changed into moderate inventory, and different inventory degrees should be arranged according to different situations. At the weakest bottlenecks of the supply chain, more inventory is required, and other resources are moderately redundant (slack), while elsewhere, inventory and other redundant resources can be minimized.</p><p></li><li>It is necessary to moderately disperse the geographical layout of suppliers, and not to rely too much on the only supplier in one place to avoid risks. Folk experience is true, you should not put all your eggs in one basket.</p><p></li></ul><ul><li>Effectively ensure the smooth circulation between domestic and international dual circulation, including spreading market demand and parts supply among different developed and developing countries.</p><p></li><li>Overseas mergers and acquisitions of hidden champions may be the most long-term investment, but the mergers and acquisitions need to be flexible, and you can participate in minority investments to strengthen the mutual trust between both parties.</p><p></li><li>There is a need to strengthen cooperation with relatively neutral geopolitical countries, such as Vietnam and certain African countries that are well-qualified.</p><p></li><li>Developed countries with empty local manufacturing industries are beginning to realize the long-term significance of the current crisis and will seek alternative solutions, especially alternatives to building local core supply chains. This is significant for the restructuring of existing supply chains worldwide. China needs to keep a close eye on this and prepare for the end of the rain.</p><p></li><li>Similarly, China needs to make breakthroughs in certain \"stuck neck\" areas to form a pattern of mutual dependence and mutual restriction with other competing countries, similar to the containment pattern among nuclear-weapon states.</p><p></li><li>In the face of Sino-US decoupling in some areas, China needs to pay special attention and actively participate in the formulation of global industry standards. In addition, Chinese companies need to learn to deal with the future pattern of two competing industry standard systems in important industries around the world.</p><p></li></ul>Faced with the increasingly obvious VUCA + scenario, the market is increasingly demanding supply chain resilience, as any accidental delay may be amplified to one industry, or upstream and downstream of several industries' supply chains.</p><p>We believe that it is necessary to fundamentally change the mainstream management paradigm and business model of enterprises based on short-term financial returns. Without this profound paradigm shift, after the crisis eases, most enterprises will heal their scars and forget the pain, and gradually return to the old road.</p><p>This is a management revolution that requires long-term efforts to rebuild a sustainable management paradigm and business model that balances the rights and interests of multiple stakeholders in the long term.</p><p>It should be pointed out in particular that the current emerging trend of \"anti-globalization\" is not a complete negation of the previous globalization paradigm, but only a partial correction, that is, a shift from the extremely paranoid globalization paradigm to the future globalization paradigm with long-term sustained and balanced development.</p><p>According to the 2018 report of China's foreign investment, in 2017, foreign-funded enterprises only accounted for less than 3% of the total number of enterprises in China, but they created nearly 1/2 of foreign trade, 1/4 of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size, 1/5 of the tax revenue, and more than 45 million direct employees (accounting for more than 10% of the domestic urban employed population, excluding indirect employment brought by upstream and downstream related industries).</p><p>Therefore, we need to adhere to the basic national policy of reform and opening up, and ensure the organic balance between internal and external circulation in the \"double circulation\". Similar to the important role of private enterprises in economic development, the unique role of foreign-funded enterprises is also irreplaceable.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XrUqawTkNFpczFJ4b0qV1Q\">中欧商业评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781bdda0e66d23e0187d95bba5bcb171","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/XrUqawTkNFpczFJ4b0qV1Q","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148030034","content_text":"大多数消费者目前似乎还没有强烈感受到,全球几乎所有企业正在遭受的巨大挑战——全球供应链产生严重瓶颈所带来的紧张短缺、部分断裂的问题。这个问题不仅由于新冠疫情持续演变,也因过去商业模式所遗留下来的内在缺陷,和新的地缘政治冲突所致。\n\n\n 比如面对半导体芯片的持续短缺,丰田已在本月宣布削减其40%的全球汽车产量。尽管产品需求强劲,但世界各地的工厂都买不到金属部件、塑料和其他原材料。建筑公司正在为油漆、木材和五金支付更多的钱,但要等上数周甚至数月才能收到……\n\n\n 更令人担忧的是,由于供应链瓶颈,物价开始上涨,很可能加剧全球货币超发所导致的通货膨胀。面对严峻挑战,《中欧商业评论》特邀李平与石涌江两位教授,阐述全球供应链出现严重瓶颈的深层原因,并提出解决这些问题的可行性方案。\n\n近几个月,延误、产品短缺和成本上升,持续困扰着大大小小的企业及其用户。\n管理者和消费者也开始面对一种现代社会曾经罕见的经历:一方面是大量的订单涌入,形成瞬间的能力短缺继而恐慌焦虑;另一方面又因供应链上中下游无法协调动作,上游原材料缺货、中游在制品积压、下游产成品因缺乏运力而无法离岸。\n事到如今,我们不禁要问,造成目前供应链瓶颈的原因究竟是什么?\n瓶颈之源\n短期强力市场需求反弹是导致全球供应链紧张的最为直接的原因之一。\n全球经济复苏前景中持续存在异常的不确定性,而“供应链瓶颈”恰恰正是这种不确定性的核心因素。\n如果短缺一直持续到明年,很有可能推动一系列大宗商品的价格上涨。目前各国的中央银行都在关注潜在通货膨胀问题,其中一个无人可以完全自信回答,短缺和延迟只是随着经济复苏短暂出现?还是会成为持续较长时间的严重隐患?\n从表面情况来看,最近出现的强力市场需求反弹是导致全球供应链紧张的最为直接的因素或原因之一。这个问题很大程度上反映了市场需求的异常变化。\n美国和其他富裕国家的消费者被新冠疫情限制在家中,驱使他们为家里添购类似游戏机、跑步机、厨房用品等产品,因而导致有关产品供应不足。\n此外,由于新冠疫情,人们无法度假旅行,就把这方面节省下来的费用转向购买其他产品,也导致有关产品供应不足。\n再次,美国等国政府发放的新冠疫情补助金同时增加了消费者的购买能力与意愿,进一步加大供应不足的程度。\n疫情期间,受各种封锁措施的影响,全球供应链不可避免会承受压力。除了中国以外,东南亚作为全球供应链中重要的一环,由于最近疫情的反弹,经济生产活动严重受阻,其中又以越南、马来西亚等国最为严重。越南全国几乎都处于社会隔离的状态,其制造业正面临工人流失、订单流失、资本流失等三大危机。\n当然,除了疫情,极端气候、自然灾害也会对供应链产生了负面影响。不过,这只是由于天灾所导致的外部问题,最为严重的还有供应本身的问题。\n大多数企业低估了最近市场需求的反弹强力,没有事前预定足够的零配件与原材料,因此无法在短期内提升供应产量。\n\n例如,全球所有汽车企业都以为,这场新冠疫情会严重减少并延迟市场对汽车的购买,因此大幅度减少零部件购买订单,却万万没想到市场需求在很短时间内强力反弹,导致目前零配件严重不足,无法满足市场需求。这属于企业管理人员的判断错误,属于人为失误。\n2020年春季汽车行业进行大幅减产,而当中国市场显示出令人惊异的复苏势头时,中国某大型车企的高管表示汽车行业当时“只订购了3个月的半导体等零部件,并未拟定乐观的生产计划”。\n同时,不同行业的市场需求几乎同时反弹,也让大多数企业措手不及。全球半导体芯片的严重短缺就与此密切相关。\n汽车行业由于没有提前安排订单,目前很难获得所需要的芯片,因为有限的芯片生产能力大多转向更为盈利的电子产品行业。加拿大或日本的电视机订单的意外增长,加剧了芯片的短缺情况,迫使汽车制造商放慢从韩国到德国再到巴西的生产数量。\n而影响更为深远的是企业无法控制的政治因素。全球半导体短缺的重要开端是美国政府对中国大陆企业的制裁。代工企业中芯国际(SMIC)等成为制裁目标,订单集中涌向了以世界最大的台积电(TSMC)为中心的台湾企业。\n美国高通迅速采取行动,相继走访台积电和联华电子(UMC)等台湾半导体企业,为了替代中芯国际下了大量的订单。此外,由于美国政府加强对华为的制裁,台积电等台湾企业自7月起进入了罕见的繁忙期,因为华为提前下了超乎寻常的大量订单,抢在新制裁于9月启动之前囤货所需芯片。\n航运之难\n运输产生的严重瓶颈,导致运力难求,运费暴涨,交货延误。\n使得以上困难雪上加霜的还有在航运领域的巨大挑战。\n具体而言,今年3月开始,随着全球航运成本飙升,许多商品变得稀缺,导致大批集装箱让航运业应接不暇。先有一艘巨型货轮在苏伊士运河搁浅,数百艘货船受阻,导致连接欧洲与亚洲的重要航道交通中断了一周。苏伊士运河是占世界贸易约12%的货物的通道,这一负面影响持续了好几个月,加剧了海运业的混乱。\n后来,中国一系列与新冠疫情有关的港口临时关闭(包括深圳、烟台、宁波等)更加剧了这种混乱。大量的产品需要从中国的港口运往全球各个国家,这些港口的关闭成为波及全球的滚雪球事件,甚至威胁美国商店感恩节后的黑色星期五促销活动的商品供应。\n加之全球消费需求暴增,航运业订单量持续增加。美国港口到货量持续创纪录,但由于缺工、缺货柜,缺船,出现塞港情形,导致物流大延迟。例如,由于运到洛杉矶的集装箱无法卸货,爱荷华州的大豆没有集装箱可运,而印度尼西亚的买家只能等待,于是引发东南亚动物饲料的短缺。\n长期以来,廉价可靠的海运一直是国际贸易的重要组成部分,让制造商们能为寻找低工资劳动力和廉价原材料将生产在世界各地转移。但自新冠疫情以来,从亚洲向美国运输货物的成本已经上涨了10倍之多。\n\n疫情之前,一个40英尺集装箱从上海运到美国中西部需要花6000-7000美元,但定于9月中旬离开中国的下一批货物运费已至少是2.6万美元;再加上由于美国铁路和卡车运输的困难,运费很可能会涨到3.5万美元。\n通常情况下,跨太平洋的货运需求高峰始于夏末,结束于冬季,也就是年底节假日期间的货物备全之后。但去年冬季,货运需求的高峰一直没有结束,现在又与今年节假日期间购物高潮汇合在一起,加剧了工厂、仓库、货船和卡车的压力。\n如今,中国国内的现状加重了人们对未来前景的担心。很多企业面临几十年未遇的反常现象。一方面订单生产忙不过来,另一方面产品库存严重积压,无法发货。这是因为运输产生严重瓶颈,运力难求,运费暴涨,交货延误。\n更令人担心的是,由于供应链瓶颈,物价开始上涨,很可能加剧由于全球货币超发所导致的通货膨胀。这是大家最为担心,也是最不愿意看到的后果。\n深层之困\n全球企业都将长期面临深刻挑战,需重构自身业务的全球供应链。\n受丰田生产模式成功的影响,许多公司都采用了精益生产模式与即时生产模式(Just in Time/JIT),以尽量削减库存和其他各种浪费。这对削减成本、提高利润很有效果,但这也给纠正差错留下极小的余地。\n有关研究发现,从1981年到2000年,美国企业每年平均降低2%库存,而省下来的成本用来回购上市股票,进一步推高股票市场价格。若企业处于相对稳定的情境下,如世界二战后的长期和平发展阶段,丰田生产模式显得异常有效。\n一旦情境变得高度混乱,特别是VUCA+时代(多变性、不确定性、复杂性、模糊性和新颖性),丰田生产模式内在的缺陷就会日益暴露。一旦供应链系统中任何一处出现问题,整个系统就会产生瓶颈,甚至出现不同程度的断裂。\n换言之,由于丰田生产模式构建在资源管理领域的紧密耦合(tight coupling)的底层逻辑之上,这种模式严重缺乏韧性,在遇到突发性危机以后的及时应对与快速反弹方面缺乏能力,紧密耦合仅仅只能在高纬度场景下发挥高效率作用。\n但场景变化,尤其是突然的变化,将这种耦合变成一种桎梏,阻碍应变能力的发挥。这一深层问题,应该提高到范式(即VUCA+范式)转变的高度,得到足够重视,并尽快有效解决。这是目前供应链瓶颈的第一个深层原因。\n第二个深层原因更为深刻,即以前全球化范式本身不可持续发展的问题。这个问题的核心内涵,是全球生产供应过于集中在少数几个国家,甚至只有一个国家(如中国成为所谓“世界工厂”),仅仅为了最大规模市场与最低人工成本。\n世界已得到了一个痛苦的教训:相隔万里的各个原本相对独立的多元经济体如此紧密地绑在一起,以至于任何一个地方的延误和短缺都会波及到几乎世界所有其他地方,无一幸免。这次新冠疫情最为形象生动地体现这一经济发展范式的弊端,而这一弊端长期被人们有意忽视,甚至恶意掩盖。\n\n换言之,出自贪婪本性,短期资本打着全球化对全球人民有利的旗号,利用对资方最为有利的商业模式,追求单一财务回报最大化,有意忽视,甚至恶意掩盖这一范式对社会造成的潜在风险与危害,尤其是对其他利益相关者长期利益而言。\n供应链的全球布局,客观上导致了生产配套与零售消费之间的地理性长距离,物流配送的多个环节以及运营复杂性的提高,直接的后果便是经营风险的提高和难以掌控。目前航运的瓶颈同样形象生动地反映了全球经济发展范式到底出现了什么问题。\n英国一家生产包装食品密封机器的公司因无法确保其所需部件的供货而步履维艰。公司在日本的供应商原本四到六周就能交付关键设备,现在需要半年。而那家日本供应商一直在努力确保其所需的电子元件,这些元件多数在亚洲生产,其他地方无法替代。加上汽车制造商不顾一切想获得芯片,让其他行业的企业更难获得本已严重短缺的零部件。这是紧密耦合在地理布局领域的体现,是第二个深层原因。\n第三个深层原因则和全球化之后的中国崛起有关。冷战结束以后,福山等人认为历史告一段落,市场经济与民主宪政将成为未来发展之统一模板。然而,谁都没有料想到,中国自从加入了WTO 之后,不仅如虎添翼,而且开始悄悄自行创立游戏规则,导致已有的全球经济体制遭受挑战。\n这最终引发了剧烈的中美贸易战和后续的一系列地缘政治导向的选边站队,在经济与政治制度等方面使得中国与西方发达国家开始分道扬镳。在这种基本格局之下,无论是中国的跨国公司或是本土企业,还是其它国家的跨国公司,全部都面临着一场前所未有的深刻挑战,即如何重构自己业务的全球供应链。\n重构之局\n供应链瓶颈的长期应对战略,应该以组织韧性为其底层逻辑。\n我们认为,供应链瓶颈的短期应对策略,以度过眼前难关为其基本原则。我们从中国企业如何应对的视角,提出一些可供选择的策略。\n\n遭遇交货延误的中国企业,应该争取与对方重新谈判新合同,恳请对方理解特殊情境所导致的困难,尤其是在不可抗力条件(而非自己的人为失误)造成的困境,尽量减少赔偿损失。\n中国企业需要特别关注现金流,保证有基本足够的流动资金,避免资金链断裂,以便顺利度过难关。\n中国企业可以充分利用政府目前支持“专精特新小巨人”企业的政策,加强突破技术瓶颈的必要研发,努力打造自身,成为未来隐形(单项/精一)冠军。我们认为,这是目前、以及未来很长一段时间内最具重大意义的国策,希望引起更多中国企业的重视。\n\n另一方面,我们主张供应链瓶颈的长期应对战略应该以组织韧性为其底层逻辑,以此克服以上提到的深层原因所带来的各种问题,包括即时生产模式、地理过于集中、中美严重冲突。\n关于韧性(resilience)的定义在不同领域有所不同,但基本上大同小异。韧性的核心本质就是反弹能力:韧性越高,在变形压力下继续发挥功能的潜力越大。然而,在管理学领域,韧性概念有所延伸与发展,主要在超越反弹能力方面。\n我们认为,组织韧性主要包含两大维度。第一个维度是在经历逆境危机情境打击之后,某一企业能够比本行业其他企业能够更快、更为有效地恢复反弹与继续存活。\n“野火烧不尽,春风吹又生”。这与工程领域韧性概念大体一致,其主要作用功能是应对逆境危机所带来的负面威胁。\n第二个维度是在经历逆境危机情境打击之后,某一企业能够比本行业其他企业能够更快、更为有效地超越反弹与存活,达到改进反超与更具活力,比逆境危机情境之前更上一层楼。这好比越挫越强的“反脆弱”或“逆脆弱”。\n这就是为何逆境可以磨练毅力,促进个人与组织更快成熟,正如俗语所言,“自古英雄多磨难,纨绔子弟少伟男”。孙悟空在太上老君炼丹炉里历经磨难,炼就“火眼金睛”,就是改进反超一个范例。\n组织韧性的第二维度与工程领域韧性概念具有明显区别,因此是其重要延伸与发展,其主要作用功能是应对逆境危机所带来的正面机遇。\n需要特别指出,不少人将韧性与对抗打击的抵抗力或鲁棒性(robustness)相提并论,混为一谈。但是,韧性与抵抗力具有本质区别:后者不会被逆境危机情境打击而受损,当然也不需要反弹或反超,而前者必须遭受打击后严重受损,却能够恢复反弹,甚至改进反超。\n一个形象比喻就是橡皮筋,其弹性反映韧性的恢复力与前冲力,但不是吸收性或容忍性,也不是泛泛的适应性。\n因此, “恢复反弹”与“改进反超”是韧性的两大核心内在特征。抵抗力类似《东观汉记·王霸传》中所提到的“疾风知劲草”中的“劲草”。\n与此不同,韧性关键不在于抵抗力,而在于反弹与反超能力,如同《孟子·告天下》名言所说,“故天将降大任于斯人也,必先苦其心志,劳其筋骨,饿其体肤,空乏其身,行拂乱其所为,所以动心忍性,曾益其所不能。”\n\n总之,组织韧性是企业面临当今VUCA+时代应对逆境危机的核心能力,包含反弹恢复和反超改进两大维度。我们认为,组织韧性主要体现于几下几个方面:\n\n精益模式与即时模式所提倡的零库存思路应该变成适度库存,根据不同情境采用不同的库存程度安排。在供应链最为薄弱的瓶颈之处需要较多的库存,以及其他资源的适度冗余(slack),而在其他地方则可以尽量减少库存与其他冗余资源。\n需要适度分散供应商地理布局,不可过度依赖一个地方的唯一供应商,以此规避风险。民间经验没错,不应把所有鸡蛋放到一个篮子里。\n\n\n切实保障国内国际双循环两者之间的通畅流通,包括将市场需求与零部件供应分散于不同的多个发达国家与多个发展中国家。\n在海外并购隐形冠军企业可能是最有长期价值的投资,但并购方式需要灵活机动,可以多以少数股投资方式参与,强化双方彼此的信任。\n需要加强与地缘政治方面相对中立国家的合作关系,例如越南与某些条件具备的非洲国家。\n本土制造业空洞化的发达国家开始意识到目前危机的长远意义,定会寻求备用方案,尤其是建立本土核心供应链的替代方案。这对全球现有供应链的重组意义重大。中国需要对此保持密切关注,末雨绸缪。\n与此类似,中国需要在某些“卡脖子”领域里有所突破,以此与其他竞争国家形成彼此依赖、互为制约的格局,类似核武器国之间的遏制格局。\n面对某些领域的中美脱钩,中国需要格外关注,并积极参与全球行业标准的制定。此外,中国企业需要学会应对在全球重要行业存在两套相互竞争的行业标准体系的未来格局。\n\n面对日益明显的VUCA+情境,市场对供应链韧性要求越来越高,因为任何意外导致的延误都可能放大至一个行业,或数个行业供应链的上下游。\n我们认为,需要从根本上转变企业以短期财务回报为本的主流管理范式与商业模式。如果没有这一深刻范式转变,危机缓和之后大多数企业就会好了伤疤忘了疼,逐步回到以前的老路上去。\n这是一场管理革命,需要长期努力,重建可持续发展的长期平衡多元利益相关者权益的管理范式与商业模式。\n需要特别指出,目前涌现的“逆全球化”趋势,并不是对以前全球化范式的彻底否定,而只是部分纠偏,即从极端偏执的全球化范式转向长期持续平衡发展的未来全球化范式。\n根据中国外商投资2018年报告,2017年外资企业仅占全国企业总数不足3%, 却创造了近1/2外贸、1/4规模以上工业企业利润、1/5税收收入、直接就业人数超过4500万(占国内城镇就业人口的比重超过10%,还不包括上下游相关产业所带来的间接就业)。\n因此,我们需要坚持改革开放的基本国策,保证“双循环”中内外循环的有机平衡。类似民营企业对于经济发展的重要作用,外资企业的独特作用同样不可替代。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1889,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886986494,"gmtCreate":1631543772418,"gmtModify":1676530571995,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886986494","repostId":"2167306263","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2167306263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631501464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167306263?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-13 10:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Key variables in overseas markets in September: pandemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167306263","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。","content":"<p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again, the US Treasury yields has risen steadily, the US stock market has fallen from a high level, the US dollar has strengthened, and the gold has plummeted. The background of these changes, as we suggested in the September monthly report, is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation where the global growth expectation has no obvious turnaround or catalyst, but the policy variables may increase. In addition, more gains have been accumulated before, so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from the change of interest rate. Looking forward to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are more important:</p><p><b>► Pandemic</b>The change of the epidemic situation will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repair, but also affect the trend of interest rates.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the follow-up economic activities and employment repair, and at the same time, the real interest rate basically bottoms out.</b></p><p><b>► Inflation</b>The August CPI data will be released in the middle of the month (September 14th), which also has an important impact on the reduction expectation and interest rate trend. The ultimate price pressure is actually the result of a combination of supply and demand,<b>The last round of pandemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stage, we saw an improvement in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction is basically ruled out, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark situation.<b>It is not impossible for the fine-tuning statement to pave the way in September, not to mention the updated economic data and dot plot at the interest rate meeting in September.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal policy and the debt ceiling</b>The second half of September is the key node of fiscal policies such as the switching between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion spending plans. The potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or epidemic situation.<b>The re-increase of TGA account not only means that the stage of sharp decline since April to May to release liquidity has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rate and US dollar than the QE reduction, which is only an incremental reduction.</b></p><p><b>In Focus This Week: Several Key Variables That Could Affect Markets in September: Pandemic, Inflation, Fed, Fiscal</b></p><p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again, the US Treasury yields has risen steadily, the US stock market has fallen from a high level, the US dollar has strengthened, and the gold has fallen sharply. These changes are basically consistent with the information prompted in the September allocation monthly report \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-9) Short-term Turn to Risk Prevention\" published at the beginning of the month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background of these changes is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation where the global growth expectation has no obvious turnaround or catalyst (the impact of the epidemic still continues, China's growth is showing an accelerating slowdown), but the policy variables may increase (FOMC of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. debt ceiling and fiscal expenditure), superimposed on the previous accumulated gains (September is the weakest month for U.S. stocks in the whole year), so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from the change of interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking forward to the remaining two weeks in September, there are several important changes that deserve close attention:</p><p><b>First, the epidemic situation. The changes of the epidemic situation will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repair, but also affect the trend of interest rates.</b>If we analyze it in (Revisiting the Rhythm and Impact of the Last Round of Epidemic in the United States from August 30 to September 5, 2021) and (The Mystery of Continuously Negative Real Interest Rate), the last round of epidemic from the beginning of October to the beginning of this year has many similarities and points worth learning from with the present.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the rapid recovery of subsequent economic activities and employment. Although there is a certain time lag, it also corresponds to the basic bottoming of real interest rates</b>。</p><p>The latest change recently is that the epidemic situation in the United States has shown certain signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched the latest epidemic action plan to mandate accelerated vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's Latest Epidemic Action Plan Weekly Tracking of Epidemic Resumption (September 11th)\").<b>If the above-mentioned two-pronged approach has a significant effect on the future improvement of the pandemic, it will help alleviate growth concerns and provide conditions for upward interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, inflation (September 14th). The August CPI data to be released in the middle of the month also has an important impact on the reduction expectation and interest rate trend.</b>The impact of the short-term epidemic escalation is two-dimensional. On the one hand, it may drag down the repair of the supply chain again and lead to supply shortage. For example, the continuous escalation of the epidemic in some Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, has affected local production, but on the other hand, it will also cause a decline in demand. For example, recently, we have noticed that high-frequency travel and consumption indicators have weakened, not to mention that commodity consumption, which has surged due to fiscal stimulus, has also fallen from its high point.<b>So the ultimate price pressure is actually the result of a combination of supply and demand</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, recently, we have noticed signs of improvement in the supply chain (such as the delivery time of August PMI), inventory (July nominal end-consumer goods inventory and August PMI inventory), and capacity utilization (especially for cars with the sharpest contradiction between supply and demand), and according to the experience of the last round of epidemic,<b>During the escalation of the pandemic, the impact was mainly on delivery time rather than on greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure from April to May was mainly due to the resonance of multiple structural factors such as demand stimulation and superimposed weather chips.</p><p>At present, the consensus expectation of the market is that inflation will continue to fall in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase the pressure of the market on the reduction of the Federal Reserve and the upward interest rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early reduction is basically ruled out, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark situation</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole Conference Change the Rhythm of QE Reduction?\", \"Eight Questions and Answers on QE Reduction August 16~ August 22, 2021\"). With only two meetings left in September and early November before the end of the year, it is not impossible for the fine-tuning statement in September to pave the way. What's more, the interest rate meeting in September also has updated economic data, dot plots and other information, so it is still a point worth focusing on.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices, such as Treasury Bond interest rates, a small change in expectations is sufficient and does not need to wait for a substantial change</b>This is the case for the 2013 experience.</p><p>In our recently published special report \"The Mystery of Continuously Negative Real Interest Rates\", we mentioned that since the epidemic and all times in history when real interest rates have been significantly negative,<b>High liquidity is a major and even the most critical factor</b>。 If quantitatively measured by the M2 index, the real interest rate has an upside of about 130bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, fiscal policy and debt ceiling. The second half of September is the key node of fiscal policies such as the switching between old and new fiscal years, debt ceiling, 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion expenditure plans in the United States, and its potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or epidemic situation.</b>For example, when the Senate returns from its leave on September 15, it can begin negotiating the details of the 3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? Aug. 9-Aug. 15, 2021\"), and there will be a clearer picture of whether tax hikes will actually be involved. If progress goes smoothly, the superimposed 550 billion infrastructure plan will be passed with a high probability, which is expected to have a significant boost to both interest rates and the US dollar, but tax increases may suppress the sentiment of the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be the focus of follow-up attention</b>。 Treasury Secretary Yellen last week again urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, and the current Treasury Department emergency measures will be exhausted in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. There is a high probability that the two parties will find a compromise. Historically speaking, the actual impact on the market is not great.<b>But what is more critical is the impact behind the liberalization of the debt ceiling on the Treasury's TGA account, that is, the supply of bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the TGA account has dropped from $1.6 trillion in early February to the current $200 billion, which is also a new low since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The increase of TGA accounts again not only means that the stage of TGA accounts dropping sharply since April to May to release liquidity has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rate and US dollar than the monetary policy reduction operation, which is only incremental reduction, and deserves special attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"kevinclyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Key variables in overseas markets in September: pandemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKey variables in overseas markets in September: pandemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Kevin策略研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-13 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again, the US Treasury yields has risen steadily, the US stock market has fallen from a high level, the US dollar has strengthened, and the gold has plummeted. The background of these changes, as we suggested in the September monthly report, is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation where the global growth expectation has no obvious turnaround or catalyst, but the policy variables may increase. In addition, more gains have been accumulated before, so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from the change of interest rate. Looking forward to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are more important:</p><p><b>► Pandemic</b>The change of the epidemic situation will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repair, but also affect the trend of interest rates.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the follow-up economic activities and employment repair, and at the same time, the real interest rate basically bottoms out.</b></p><p><b>► Inflation</b>The August CPI data will be released in the middle of the month (September 14th), which also has an important impact on the reduction expectation and interest rate trend. The ultimate price pressure is actually the result of a combination of supply and demand,<b>The last round of pandemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stage, we saw an improvement in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction is basically ruled out, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark situation.<b>It is not impossible for the fine-tuning statement to pave the way in September, not to mention the updated economic data and dot plot at the interest rate meeting in September.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal policy and the debt ceiling</b>The second half of September is the key node of fiscal policies such as the switching between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion spending plans. The potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or epidemic situation.<b>The re-increase of TGA account not only means that the stage of sharp decline since April to May to release liquidity has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rate and US dollar than the QE reduction, which is only an incremental reduction.</b></p><p><b>In Focus This Week: Several Key Variables That Could Affect Markets in September: Pandemic, Inflation, Fed, Fiscal</b></p><p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again, the US Treasury yields has risen steadily, the US stock market has fallen from a high level, the US dollar has strengthened, and the gold has fallen sharply. These changes are basically consistent with the information prompted in the September allocation monthly report \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-9) Short-term Turn to Risk Prevention\" published at the beginning of the month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background of these changes is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation where the global growth expectation has no obvious turnaround or catalyst (the impact of the epidemic still continues, China's growth is showing an accelerating slowdown), but the policy variables may increase (FOMC of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. debt ceiling and fiscal expenditure), superimposed on the previous accumulated gains (September is the weakest month for U.S. stocks in the whole year), so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from the change of interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking forward to the remaining two weeks in September, there are several important changes that deserve close attention:</p><p><b>First, the epidemic situation. The changes of the epidemic situation will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repair, but also affect the trend of interest rates.</b>If we analyze it in (Revisiting the Rhythm and Impact of the Last Round of Epidemic in the United States from August 30 to September 5, 2021) and (The Mystery of Continuously Negative Real Interest Rate), the last round of epidemic from the beginning of October to the beginning of this year has many similarities and points worth learning from with the present.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the rapid recovery of subsequent economic activities and employment. Although there is a certain time lag, it also corresponds to the basic bottoming of real interest rates</b>。</p><p>The latest change recently is that the epidemic situation in the United States has shown certain signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched the latest epidemic action plan to mandate accelerated vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's Latest Epidemic Action Plan Weekly Tracking of Epidemic Resumption (September 11th)\").<b>If the above-mentioned two-pronged approach has a significant effect on the future improvement of the pandemic, it will help alleviate growth concerns and provide conditions for upward interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, inflation (September 14th). The August CPI data to be released in the middle of the month also has an important impact on the reduction expectation and interest rate trend.</b>The impact of the short-term epidemic escalation is two-dimensional. On the one hand, it may drag down the repair of the supply chain again and lead to supply shortage. For example, the continuous escalation of the epidemic in some Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, has affected local production, but on the other hand, it will also cause a decline in demand. For example, recently, we have noticed that high-frequency travel and consumption indicators have weakened, not to mention that commodity consumption, which has surged due to fiscal stimulus, has also fallen from its high point.<b>So the ultimate price pressure is actually the result of a combination of supply and demand</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, recently, we have noticed signs of improvement in the supply chain (such as the delivery time of August PMI), inventory (July nominal end-consumer goods inventory and August PMI inventory), and capacity utilization (especially for cars with the sharpest contradiction between supply and demand), and according to the experience of the last round of epidemic,<b>During the escalation of the pandemic, the impact was mainly on delivery time rather than on greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure from April to May was mainly due to the resonance of multiple structural factors such as demand stimulation and superimposed weather chips.</p><p>At present, the consensus expectation of the market is that inflation will continue to fall in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase the pressure of the market on the reduction of the Federal Reserve and the upward interest rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early reduction is basically ruled out, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark situation</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole Conference Change the Rhythm of QE Reduction?\", \"Eight Questions and Answers on QE Reduction August 16~ August 22, 2021\"). With only two meetings left in September and early November before the end of the year, it is not impossible for the fine-tuning statement in September to pave the way. What's more, the interest rate meeting in September also has updated economic data, dot plots and other information, so it is still a point worth focusing on.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices, such as Treasury Bond interest rates, a small change in expectations is sufficient and does not need to wait for a substantial change</b>This is the case for the 2013 experience.</p><p>In our recently published special report \"The Mystery of Continuously Negative Real Interest Rates\", we mentioned that since the epidemic and all times in history when real interest rates have been significantly negative,<b>High liquidity is a major and even the most critical factor</b>。 If quantitatively measured by the M2 index, the real interest rate has an upside of about 130bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, fiscal policy and debt ceiling. The second half of September is the key node of fiscal policies such as the switching between old and new fiscal years, debt ceiling, 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion expenditure plans in the United States, and its potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or epidemic situation.</b>For example, when the Senate returns from its leave on September 15, it can begin negotiating the details of the 3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? Aug. 9-Aug. 15, 2021\"), and there will be a clearer picture of whether tax hikes will actually be involved. If progress goes smoothly, the superimposed 550 billion infrastructure plan will be passed with a high probability, which is expected to have a significant boost to both interest rates and the US dollar, but tax increases may suppress the sentiment of the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be the focus of follow-up attention</b>。 Treasury Secretary Yellen last week again urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, and the current Treasury Department emergency measures will be exhausted in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. There is a high probability that the two parties will find a compromise. Historically speaking, the actual impact on the market is not great.<b>But what is more critical is the impact behind the liberalization of the debt ceiling on the Treasury's TGA account, that is, the supply of bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the TGA account has dropped from $1.6 trillion in early February to the current $200 billion, which is also a new low since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The increase of TGA accounts again not only means that the stage of TGA accounts dropping sharply since April to May to release liquidity has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rate and US dollar than the monetary policy reduction operation, which is only incremental reduction, and deserves special attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml\">Kevin策略研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167306263","content_text":"近期,海外市场再度出现一些波动,美债利率稳中有升,美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌。出现这些变化的背景,如我们在9月月报中提示的,主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂、但政策变数却可能增多的局面,叠加此前积累了较多涨幅,因此不排除出现波动,而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。展望9月余下两周多,几个变化较为重要:\n►疫情,疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。\n►通胀,月中(9月14日)将公布8月CPI数据对减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。最终价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果,上轮疫情升级影响的主要是交付时间而并非产能利用率。前期我们看到产能、库存都有改善。\n►FOMC会议(9月21~22日),提前减量的风险基本被排除,但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形。9月微调声明铺垫也并非没有可能,更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息。\n►财政政策与债务上限,9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点,潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着4~5月份以来大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去,也意味着债券供给的边际增多,这对流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响可能要大于仅是增量减少的QE减量。\n本周焦点:9月可能影响市场的几个关键变量:疫情、通胀、美联储、财政\n近期,海外市场再度出现一些波动,美债利率稳中有升,美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌,这些变化与我们在月初发表的9月配置月报《海外资产配置月报(2021-9)短期转向防风险》中所提示信息基本一致。\n\n出现这些变化的背景,主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂(疫情影响仍在持续、中国增长呈现加速放缓态势)、但政策变数却可能增多的局面(美联储FOMC、美国债务上限和财政支出),叠加此前积累了较多涨幅(9月是美股全年来看最弱的月份),因此不排除出现波动,而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。\n因此展望9月余下的两周多时间,有几个变化较为重要,值得密切关注:\n一是疫情,疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。如果我们在(《重温美国上轮疫情的节奏与影响2021年8月30日~9月5日》)和(《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》)中分析,上一轮10月初到今年初的疫情与当下有很多相似和值得借鉴之处,疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业的快速修复,虽然存在一定时滞,同时也是对应着实际利率基本见底。\n近期最新的变化是,美国疫情出现一定筑顶迹象,新增、重症和死亡都是如此,同时白宫也最新推出了强制性加快疫苗接种最新的疫情行动计划(《解析白宫最新疫情行动计划疫情复工周度追踪(9月11日)》),如果上述措施双管齐下对未来疫情改善产生显著效果的话,那将有助于缓解增长担忧并为利率上行提供条件。\n\n二是通胀(9月14日),月中将公布的8月CPI数据对于减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。短期疫情的升级影响是两个层面的,一方面可能会再度拖累供应链的修复进而导致供应紧张,例如部分东南亚国家如越南疫情的持续升级已经影响了当地生产,但另一方面也会造成需求的回落,例如近期我们注意到高频的出行和消费指标都有所趋弱,更不用说因为财政刺激激增的商品消费也已经从高点回落,因此最终的价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果。\n所幸的是,近期我们注意到供应链(如8月PMI的交付时间)、库存(7月名义终端消费品库存和8月PMI库存)、产能利用率(特别是供需矛盾最为尖锐的汽车)都出现了改善迹象,而且根据上一轮疫情的经验,疫情升级期间影响的主要是交付时间而并非影响更大的产能利用率,4~5月的价格压力主要是由于需求刺激叠加天气芯片等多重结构性因素的共振。\n目前的市场一致预期是8月通胀环比会继续回落(0.4%vs. 7月的0.5%),如果再度超预期的话可能会加大市场对于美联储减量和利率上行的压力。\n\n三是FOMC会议(9月21~22日),经历了近期一系列的变化后,提前减量的风险基本被排除,但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形(《Jackson Hole会议改变减量节奏了么?》、《关于QE减量的八问八答2021年8月16日~8月22日》)。在年底前仅剩9月和11月初两次会议的背景下,9月微调声明做出铺垫也并非没有可能,更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息,因此依然是一个值得重点关注的时点。\n更重要的是,对于资产价格如国债利率而言,预期上的微小变化已经足够,并非需要等到实质性的改变,2013年的经验即是如此。\n我们在近期发表的专题报告《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》中,提到疫情以来,以及历史上历次实际利率大幅为负的时期,高流动性一个主要甚至是最关键的因素。如果以M2指标量化测算的话,实际利率大约有130bp的上行空间。\n\n四是财政政策与债务上限,9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点,其潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。例如,9月15日参议院休假回来以后,就可以着手就3.5万亿支出计划的细节做出协商讨论(《美国距新一轮基建和刺激还有多远?2021年8月9日~8月15日》),而其实是否会涉及到加税也将会有更为清晰的图景。如果进展顺利,叠加5500亿基建计划大概率通过,对于利率和美元预计都将起到明显提振效果,但加税可能会压制美股市场情绪。\n另外,债务上限也将是后续关注的焦点。财长耶伦上周再度敦促国会尽快提高债务上限,当前财政部的紧急措施将会在10月耗尽。债务上限本身我们到不太担心,两党大概率会找到妥协方案,从历史上来看,对市场的实际影响也不大,但更为关键的是债务上限放开后背后隐含的对于财政部TGA账户也即债券供给的影响。\n\n目前TGA账户已经从2月初的1.6万亿美元降至当前的2000亿美元,这也是2019年9月以来的新低,已经不太可能进一步回落。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着从4~5月份以来TGA账户大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去,也意味着债券供给的边际增多,这可能对于流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响要大于仅仅是增量减少的货币政策减量操作,值得重点关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886986542,"gmtCreate":1631543766386,"gmtModify":1676530571987,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/886986542","repostId":"2167306263","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2167306263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631501464,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167306263?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-13 10:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Key variables in overseas markets in September: pandemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167306263","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。","content":"<p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again, the US Treasury yields has risen steadily, the US stock market has fallen from a high level, the US dollar has strengthened, and the gold has plummeted. The background of these changes, as we suggested in the September monthly report, is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation where the global growth expectation has no obvious turnaround or catalyst, but the policy variables may increase. In addition, more gains have been accumulated before, so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from the change of interest rate. Looking forward to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are more important:</p><p><b>► Pandemic</b>The change of the epidemic situation will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repair, but also affect the trend of interest rates.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the follow-up economic activities and employment repair, and at the same time, the real interest rate basically bottoms out.</b></p><p><b>► Inflation</b>The August CPI data will be released in the middle of the month (September 14th), which also has an important impact on the reduction expectation and interest rate trend. The ultimate price pressure is actually the result of a combination of supply and demand,<b>The last round of pandemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stage, we saw an improvement in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction is basically ruled out, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark situation.<b>It is not impossible for the fine-tuning statement to pave the way in September, not to mention the updated economic data and dot plot at the interest rate meeting in September.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal policy and the debt ceiling</b>The second half of September is the key node of fiscal policies such as the switching between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion spending plans. The potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or epidemic situation.<b>The re-increase of TGA account not only means that the stage of sharp decline since April to May to release liquidity has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rate and US dollar than the QE reduction, which is only an incremental reduction.</b></p><p><b>In Focus This Week: Several Key Variables That Could Affect Markets in September: Pandemic, Inflation, Fed, Fiscal</b></p><p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again, the US Treasury yields has risen steadily, the US stock market has fallen from a high level, the US dollar has strengthened, and the gold has fallen sharply. These changes are basically consistent with the information prompted in the September allocation monthly report \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-9) Short-term Turn to Risk Prevention\" published at the beginning of the month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background of these changes is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation where the global growth expectation has no obvious turnaround or catalyst (the impact of the epidemic still continues, China's growth is showing an accelerating slowdown), but the policy variables may increase (FOMC of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. debt ceiling and fiscal expenditure), superimposed on the previous accumulated gains (September is the weakest month for U.S. stocks in the whole year), so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from the change of interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking forward to the remaining two weeks in September, there are several important changes that deserve close attention:</p><p><b>First, the epidemic situation. The changes of the epidemic situation will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repair, but also affect the trend of interest rates.</b>If we analyze it in (Revisiting the Rhythm and Impact of the Last Round of Epidemic in the United States from August 30 to September 5, 2021) and (The Mystery of Continuously Negative Real Interest Rate), the last round of epidemic from the beginning of October to the beginning of this year has many similarities and points worth learning from with the present.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the rapid recovery of subsequent economic activities and employment. Although there is a certain time lag, it also corresponds to the basic bottoming of real interest rates</b>。</p><p>The latest change recently is that the epidemic situation in the United States has shown certain signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched the latest epidemic action plan to mandate accelerated vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's Latest Epidemic Action Plan Weekly Tracking of Epidemic Resumption (September 11th)\").<b>If the above-mentioned two-pronged approach has a significant effect on the future improvement of the pandemic, it will help alleviate growth concerns and provide conditions for upward interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, inflation (September 14th). The August CPI data to be released in the middle of the month also has an important impact on the reduction expectation and interest rate trend.</b>The impact of the short-term epidemic escalation is two-dimensional. On the one hand, it may drag down the repair of the supply chain again and lead to supply shortage. For example, the continuous escalation of the epidemic in some Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, has affected local production, but on the other hand, it will also cause a decline in demand. For example, recently, we have noticed that high-frequency travel and consumption indicators have weakened, not to mention that commodity consumption, which has surged due to fiscal stimulus, has also fallen from its high point.<b>So the ultimate price pressure is actually the result of a combination of supply and demand</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, recently, we have noticed signs of improvement in the supply chain (such as the delivery time of August PMI), inventory (July nominal end-consumer goods inventory and August PMI inventory), and capacity utilization (especially for cars with the sharpest contradiction between supply and demand), and according to the experience of the last round of epidemic,<b>During the escalation of the pandemic, the impact was mainly on delivery time rather than on greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure from April to May was mainly due to the resonance of multiple structural factors such as demand stimulation and superimposed weather chips.</p><p>At present, the consensus expectation of the market is that inflation will continue to fall in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase the pressure of the market on the reduction of the Federal Reserve and the upward interest rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early reduction is basically ruled out, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark situation</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole Conference Change the Rhythm of QE Reduction?\", \"Eight Questions and Answers on QE Reduction August 16~ August 22, 2021\"). With only two meetings left in September and early November before the end of the year, it is not impossible for the fine-tuning statement in September to pave the way. What's more, the interest rate meeting in September also has updated economic data, dot plots and other information, so it is still a point worth focusing on.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices, such as Treasury Bond interest rates, a small change in expectations is sufficient and does not need to wait for a substantial change</b>This is the case for the 2013 experience.</p><p>In our recently published special report \"The Mystery of Continuously Negative Real Interest Rates\", we mentioned that since the epidemic and all times in history when real interest rates have been significantly negative,<b>High liquidity is a major and even the most critical factor</b>。 If quantitatively measured by the M2 index, the real interest rate has an upside of about 130bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, fiscal policy and debt ceiling. The second half of September is the key node of fiscal policies such as the switching between old and new fiscal years, debt ceiling, 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion expenditure plans in the United States, and its potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or epidemic situation.</b>For example, when the Senate returns from its leave on September 15, it can begin negotiating the details of the 3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? Aug. 9-Aug. 15, 2021\"), and there will be a clearer picture of whether tax hikes will actually be involved. If progress goes smoothly, the superimposed 550 billion infrastructure plan will be passed with a high probability, which is expected to have a significant boost to both interest rates and the US dollar, but tax increases may suppress the sentiment of the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be the focus of follow-up attention</b>。 Treasury Secretary Yellen last week again urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, and the current Treasury Department emergency measures will be exhausted in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. There is a high probability that the two parties will find a compromise. Historically speaking, the actual impact on the market is not great.<b>But what is more critical is the impact behind the liberalization of the debt ceiling on the Treasury's TGA account, that is, the supply of bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the TGA account has dropped from $1.6 trillion in early February to the current $200 billion, which is also a new low since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The increase of TGA accounts again not only means that the stage of TGA accounts dropping sharply since April to May to release liquidity has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rate and US dollar than the monetary policy reduction operation, which is only incremental reduction, and deserves special attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"kevinclyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Key variables in overseas markets in September: pandemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKey variables in overseas markets in September: pandemic, inflation, Federal Reserve, fiscal\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Kevin策略研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-13 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Recently, there have been some fluctuations in overseas markets again, the US Treasury yields has risen steadily, the US stock market has fallen from a high level, the US dollar has strengthened, and the gold has plummeted. The background of these changes, as we suggested in the September monthly report, is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation where the global growth expectation has no obvious turnaround or catalyst, but the policy variables may increase. In addition, more gains have been accumulated before, so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from the change of interest rate. Looking forward to the remaining two weeks of September, several changes are more important:</p><p><b>► Pandemic</b>The change of the epidemic situation will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repair, but also affect the trend of interest rates.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the follow-up economic activities and employment repair, and at the same time, the real interest rate basically bottoms out.</b></p><p><b>► Inflation</b>The August CPI data will be released in the middle of the month (September 14th), which also has an important impact on the reduction expectation and interest rate trend. The ultimate price pressure is actually the result of a combination of supply and demand,<b>The last round of pandemic escalation mainly affected delivery time rather than capacity utilization. In the early stage, we saw an improvement in production capacity and inventory.</b></p><p><b>► FOMC Meeting</b>(September 21-22), the risk of early reduction is basically ruled out, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark situation.<b>It is not impossible for the fine-tuning statement to pave the way in September, not to mention the updated economic data and dot plot at the interest rate meeting in September.</b></p><p><b>► Fiscal policy and the debt ceiling</b>The second half of September is the key node of fiscal policies such as the switching between the old and new fiscal years in the United States, the debt ceiling, and the 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion spending plans. The potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or epidemic situation.<b>The re-increase of TGA account not only means that the stage of sharp decline since April to May to release liquidity has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rate and US dollar than the QE reduction, which is only an incremental reduction.</b></p><p><b>In Focus This Week: Several Key Variables That Could Affect Markets in September: Pandemic, Inflation, Fed, Fiscal</b></p><p>Recently, overseas markets have experienced some fluctuations again, the US Treasury yields has risen steadily, the US stock market has fallen from a high level, the US dollar has strengthened, and the gold has fallen sharply. These changes are basically consistent with the information prompted in the September allocation monthly report \"Overseas Asset Allocation Monthly Report (2021-9) Short-term Turn to Risk Prevention\" published at the beginning of the month.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f65500c8c785e1d9da9396fa8024388\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"209\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The background of these changes is mainly due to the fact that September may face a situation where the global growth expectation has no obvious turnaround or catalyst (the impact of the epidemic still continues, China's growth is showing an accelerating slowdown), but the policy variables may increase (FOMC of the Federal Reserve, the U.S. debt ceiling and fiscal expenditure), superimposed on the previous accumulated gains (September is the weakest month for U.S. stocks in the whole year), so fluctuations cannot be ruled out, and the main source of transmission may come from the change of interest rates.</p><p>Therefore, looking forward to the remaining two weeks in September, there are several important changes that deserve close attention:</p><p><b>First, the epidemic situation. The changes of the epidemic situation will not only affect short-term high-frequency economic activities and the pace of subsequent repair, but also affect the trend of interest rates.</b>If we analyze it in (Revisiting the Rhythm and Impact of the Last Round of Epidemic in the United States from August 30 to September 5, 2021) and (The Mystery of Continuously Negative Real Interest Rate), the last round of epidemic from the beginning of October to the beginning of this year has many similarities and points worth learning from with the present.<b>The peak and fall of the epidemic corresponds to the rapid recovery of subsequent economic activities and employment. Although there is a certain time lag, it also corresponds to the basic bottoming of real interest rates</b>。</p><p>The latest change recently is that the epidemic situation in the United States has shown certain signs of peaking, including new cases, severe cases and deaths. At the same time, the White House has also recently launched the latest epidemic action plan to mandate accelerated vaccination (\"Analysis of the White House's Latest Epidemic Action Plan Weekly Tracking of Epidemic Resumption (September 11th)\").<b>If the above-mentioned two-pronged approach has a significant effect on the future improvement of the pandemic, it will help alleviate growth concerns and provide conditions for upward interest rates.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a315d145548e43cc98306956badce1f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/835c869e01e5d2dfbd9d2d97d1aa4409\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6ae0dffa1aaaf8e5525897ca8db5fb\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/099fda5583f8367721036031fc1f4477\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"206\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Second, inflation (September 14th). The August CPI data to be released in the middle of the month also has an important impact on the reduction expectation and interest rate trend.</b>The impact of the short-term epidemic escalation is two-dimensional. On the one hand, it may drag down the repair of the supply chain again and lead to supply shortage. For example, the continuous escalation of the epidemic in some Southeast Asian countries, such as Vietnam, has affected local production, but on the other hand, it will also cause a decline in demand. For example, recently, we have noticed that high-frequency travel and consumption indicators have weakened, not to mention that commodity consumption, which has surged due to fiscal stimulus, has also fallen from its high point.<b>So the ultimate price pressure is actually the result of a combination of supply and demand</b>。</p><p>Fortunately, recently, we have noticed signs of improvement in the supply chain (such as the delivery time of August PMI), inventory (July nominal end-consumer goods inventory and August PMI inventory), and capacity utilization (especially for cars with the sharpest contradiction between supply and demand), and according to the experience of the last round of epidemic,<b>During the escalation of the pandemic, the impact was mainly on delivery time rather than on greater capacity utilization.</b>The price pressure from April to May was mainly due to the resonance of multiple structural factors such as demand stimulation and superimposed weather chips.</p><p>At present, the consensus expectation of the market is that inflation will continue to fall in August (0.4% vs. 0.5% in July). If it exceeds expectations again, it may increase the pressure of the market on the reduction of the Federal Reserve and the upward interest rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c497f6abd800edef609284af3fa5145\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The third is the FOMC meeting (September 21-22). After a series of recent changes, the risk of early reduction is basically ruled out, but the official launch in December is still the benchmark situation</b>(\"Did the Jackson Hole Conference Change the Rhythm of QE Reduction?\", \"Eight Questions and Answers on QE Reduction August 16~ August 22, 2021\"). With only two meetings left in September and early November before the end of the year, it is not impossible for the fine-tuning statement in September to pave the way. What's more, the interest rate meeting in September also has updated economic data, dot plots and other information, so it is still a point worth focusing on.</p><p>More importantly,<b>For asset prices, such as Treasury Bond interest rates, a small change in expectations is sufficient and does not need to wait for a substantial change</b>This is the case for the 2013 experience.</p><p>In our recently published special report \"The Mystery of Continuously Negative Real Interest Rates\", we mentioned that since the epidemic and all times in history when real interest rates have been significantly negative,<b>High liquidity is a major and even the most critical factor</b>。 If quantitatively measured by the M2 index, the real interest rate has an upside of about 130bp.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905ade5a4e841ac601bb58dede52b789\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"294\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/673d21037033f0f594d6f34cbc8ff11a\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"229\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Fourth, fiscal policy and debt ceiling. The second half of September is the key node of fiscal policies such as the switching between old and new fiscal years, debt ceiling, 550 billion infrastructure and 3.5 trillion expenditure plans in the United States, and its potential impact is even greater than that of monetary policy or epidemic situation.</b>For example, when the Senate returns from its leave on September 15, it can begin negotiating the details of the 3.5 trillion spending plan (\"How far is the United States from a new round of infrastructure and stimulus? Aug. 9-Aug. 15, 2021\"), and there will be a clearer picture of whether tax hikes will actually be involved. If progress goes smoothly, the superimposed 550 billion infrastructure plan will be passed with a high probability, which is expected to have a significant boost to both interest rates and the US dollar, but tax increases may suppress the sentiment of the US stock market.</p><p>In addition,<b>The debt ceiling will also be the focus of follow-up attention</b>。 Treasury Secretary Yellen last week again urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling as soon as possible, and the current Treasury Department emergency measures will be exhausted in October. We are not too worried about the debt ceiling itself. There is a high probability that the two parties will find a compromise. Historically speaking, the actual impact on the market is not great.<b>But what is more critical is the impact behind the liberalization of the debt ceiling on the Treasury's TGA account, that is, the supply of bonds.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/146fa1678a3d18add6f4ae93afa29b70\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At present, the TGA account has dropped from $1.6 trillion in early February to the current $200 billion, which is also a new low since September 2019, and it is unlikely to fall further.<b>The increase of TGA accounts again not only means that the stage of TGA accounts dropping sharply since April to May to release liquidity has passed, but also means that the marginal increase of bond supply may have a greater marginal impact on liquidity, real interest rate and US dollar than the monetary policy reduction operation, which is only incremental reduction, and deserves special attention.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66c0af057c22f4aecbc42891d55be1bc\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"207\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab029a4ebf1e0952fb4568490fc2fc7e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml\">Kevin策略研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2578fef036607345dce47cc401e172a3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-13/doc-iktzscyx3875011.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167306263","content_text":"近期,海外市场再度出现一些波动,美债利率稳中有升,美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌。出现这些变化的背景,如我们在9月月报中提示的,主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂、但政策变数却可能增多的局面,叠加此前积累了较多涨幅,因此不排除出现波动,而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。展望9月余下两周多,几个变化较为重要:\n►疫情,疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业修复,同时也对应着实际利率基本见底。\n►通胀,月中(9月14日)将公布8月CPI数据对减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。最终价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果,上轮疫情升级影响的主要是交付时间而并非产能利用率。前期我们看到产能、库存都有改善。\n►FOMC会议(9月21~22日),提前减量的风险基本被排除,但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形。9月微调声明铺垫也并非没有可能,更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息。\n►财政政策与债务上限,9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点,潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着4~5月份以来大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去,也意味着债券供给的边际增多,这对流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响可能要大于仅是增量减少的QE减量。\n本周焦点:9月可能影响市场的几个关键变量:疫情、通胀、美联储、财政\n近期,海外市场再度出现一些波动,美债利率稳中有升,美股市场从高位回落、美元走强并带动黄金大跌,这些变化与我们在月初发表的9月配置月报《海外资产配置月报(2021-9)短期转向防风险》中所提示信息基本一致。\n\n出现这些变化的背景,主要是由于9月可能面临的是一个全球增长预期尚无明显转机或催化剂(疫情影响仍在持续、中国增长呈现加速放缓态势)、但政策变数却可能增多的局面(美联储FOMC、美国债务上限和财政支出),叠加此前积累了较多涨幅(9月是美股全年来看最弱的月份),因此不排除出现波动,而主要的传导源头可能来自利率的变化。\n因此展望9月余下的两周多时间,有几个变化较为重要,值得密切关注:\n一是疫情,疫情的变化不仅会影响短期高频经济活动和后续修复节奏、也影响利率的走向。如果我们在(《重温美国上轮疫情的节奏与影响2021年8月30日~9月5日》)和(《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》)中分析,上一轮10月初到今年初的疫情与当下有很多相似和值得借鉴之处,疫情见顶回落对应着后续经济活动和就业的快速修复,虽然存在一定时滞,同时也是对应着实际利率基本见底。\n近期最新的变化是,美国疫情出现一定筑顶迹象,新增、重症和死亡都是如此,同时白宫也最新推出了强制性加快疫苗接种最新的疫情行动计划(《解析白宫最新疫情行动计划疫情复工周度追踪(9月11日)》),如果上述措施双管齐下对未来疫情改善产生显著效果的话,那将有助于缓解增长担忧并为利率上行提供条件。\n\n二是通胀(9月14日),月中将公布的8月CPI数据对于减量预期和利率走势也有重要影响。短期疫情的升级影响是两个层面的,一方面可能会再度拖累供应链的修复进而导致供应紧张,例如部分东南亚国家如越南疫情的持续升级已经影响了当地生产,但另一方面也会造成需求的回落,例如近期我们注意到高频的出行和消费指标都有所趋弱,更不用说因为财政刺激激增的商品消费也已经从高点回落,因此最终的价格压力实际上是供需双方综合影响的结果。\n所幸的是,近期我们注意到供应链(如8月PMI的交付时间)、库存(7月名义终端消费品库存和8月PMI库存)、产能利用率(特别是供需矛盾最为尖锐的汽车)都出现了改善迹象,而且根据上一轮疫情的经验,疫情升级期间影响的主要是交付时间而并非影响更大的产能利用率,4~5月的价格压力主要是由于需求刺激叠加天气芯片等多重结构性因素的共振。\n目前的市场一致预期是8月通胀环比会继续回落(0.4%vs. 7月的0.5%),如果再度超预期的话可能会加大市场对于美联储减量和利率上行的压力。\n\n三是FOMC会议(9月21~22日),经历了近期一系列的变化后,提前减量的风险基本被排除,但是12月正式启动依然是基准情形(《Jackson Hole会议改变减量节奏了么?》、《关于QE减量的八问八答2021年8月16日~8月22日》)。在年底前仅剩9月和11月初两次会议的背景下,9月微调声明做出铺垫也并非没有可能,更何况9月份的议息会议还有更新的经济数据和点阵图等信息,因此依然是一个值得重点关注的时点。\n更重要的是,对于资产价格如国债利率而言,预期上的微小变化已经足够,并非需要等到实质性的改变,2013年的经验即是如此。\n我们在近期发表的专题报告《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》中,提到疫情以来,以及历史上历次实际利率大幅为负的时期,高流动性一个主要甚至是最关键的因素。如果以M2指标量化测算的话,实际利率大约有130bp的上行空间。\n\n四是财政政策与债务上限,9月下半月是美国新旧财年切换、债务上限、以及5500亿基建和3.5万亿支出计划等财政政策的关键节点,其潜在影响甚至要大于货币政策或者疫情。例如,9月15日参议院休假回来以后,就可以着手就3.5万亿支出计划的细节做出协商讨论(《美国距新一轮基建和刺激还有多远?2021年8月9日~8月15日》),而其实是否会涉及到加税也将会有更为清晰的图景。如果进展顺利,叠加5500亿基建计划大概率通过,对于利率和美元预计都将起到明显提振效果,但加税可能会压制美股市场情绪。\n另外,债务上限也将是后续关注的焦点。财长耶伦上周再度敦促国会尽快提高债务上限,当前财政部的紧急措施将会在10月耗尽。债务上限本身我们到不太担心,两党大概率会找到妥协方案,从历史上来看,对市场的实际影响也不大,但更为关键的是债务上限放开后背后隐含的对于财政部TGA账户也即债券供给的影响。\n\n目前TGA账户已经从2月初的1.6万亿美元降至当前的2000亿美元,这也是2019年9月以来的新低,已经不太可能进一步回落。TGA账户的再度增加不仅意味着从4~5月份以来TGA账户大幅回落释放流动性的阶段已经过去,也意味着债券供给的边际增多,这可能对于流动性、实际利率和美元的边际影响要大于仅仅是增量减少的货币政策减量操作,值得重点关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888185423,"gmtCreate":1631457276962,"gmtModify":1676530550963,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888185423","repostId":"2166303116","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2166303116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631450460,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166303116?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-12 20:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"What are the most popular funds among Christians?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166303116","media":"每日经济新闻","summary":" 今天周末,Z哥还是照例给大家分享一些关于基金投资方面的思考。很多人都问Z哥,现在到底可以买哪些基金?通过这个数据,我们大概可以了解最受基民喜爱的基金到底是哪些?基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的“买者自负”原则,在投资者做出投资决策后,基金运营状况、基金份额上市交易价格波动与基金净值变化引致的投资风险,由投资者自行负责。","content":"<p><div>Brother Z's financial management is not two cows. This weekend, Brother Z will share some thoughts on fund investment with you as usual. Since the launch of the column, there are indeed many friends around me who pay attention to the fund. Many people ask Brother Z, which funds can I buy now? (Photo source: Photo Network) However, when they saw Brother Z's \"solid offer combination\", they didn't seem to be interested. One of the most important reasons is that the net value of these funds has increased greatly this year. If you buy them now, you will probably buy them at a high level. On the contrary, Brother Z's \"facing the wall and thinking about faults\" combination seems to be more...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What are the most popular funds among Christians?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat are the most popular funds among Christians?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">每日经济新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 20:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Brother Z's financial management is not two cows. This weekend, Brother Z will share some thoughts on fund investment with you as usual. Since the launch of the column, there are indeed many friends around me who pay attention to the fund. Many people ask Brother Z, which funds can I buy now? (Photo source: Photo Network) However, when they saw Brother Z's \"solid offer combination\", they didn't seem to be interested. One of the most important reasons is that the net value of these funds has increased greatly this year. If you buy them now, you will probably buy them at a high level. On the contrary, Brother Z's \"facing the wall and thinking about faults\" combination seems to be more...</p><p><a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml\">每日经济新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b316935034311b351e6e3b3c20c27e8","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/fund/2021-09-12/doc-iktzqtyt5584430.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2166303116","content_text":"Z哥 理财不二牛 \n 今天周末,Z哥还是照例给大家分享一些关于基金投资方面的思考。\n 栏目推出以来,身边关注基金的朋友也确实不少。很多人都问Z哥,现在到底可以买哪些基金?\n\n (图片来源:摄图网)\n 不过,当他们看了Z哥的“实盘组合”之后,似乎感兴趣的并不多。其中一个很重要的原因就是,这些基金的净值在今年都有很大的涨幅,现在去买,很可能会买在高位。相反,Z哥的“面壁思过”组合,似乎还更受欢迎一些。\n 那么,现在到底哪些基金,是基民们最喜爱的呢?\n 其实,要回答这个问题也很简单。现在,很多基民喜欢在支付宝平台上购买基金,这是这两年形成的新趋势,因为支付宝这个平台做得太大了。从以前买余额宝,过度到现在大量基民通过支付宝买基金,也就是这一两年时间的事情,最主要的原因是方便。\n 而支付宝上有一个功能,随时会公布基金的“周销量TOP”,也就是销量排行榜。通过这个数据,我们大概可以了解最受基民喜爱的基金到底是哪些?\n 虽然Z哥还没有在支付宝上买过基金,但周末Z哥看了一下支付宝发现,本周销量冠军是葛兰管理的中欧医疗健康混合C,购买人数超过30万人。排名第二的是天弘永利债券B,这只债券基金,收益稳定,但并非Z哥喜爱的品种,这里不多说。\n 而排名第三的,则是大名鼎鼎的刘彦春管理的景顺长城新兴成长混合,超20万人购买。排名第四的是“坤坤”张坤管理的易方达蓝筹精选,也有超过10万人购买。\n 此外,排名靠前的还有刘彦春管理的景顺长城鼎益混合(超6万人购买);谢治宇管理的兴全合润混合(超6万人购买);以及周蔚文管理的中欧新趋势混合(超5万人购买)。\n 从这个数据不难看出,通过支付宝平台购买的基金,最多的还是市场中顶流基金经理管理的基金,这和基金今年的业绩情况,似乎没有太直接的关系。而Z哥平时关注的那些业绩非常好的基金,却很少受到普通基民的青睐。\n 说实话,这些基金,虽然从过往业绩,还有基金经理的能力来看,都是很好的,不然也不可能去管理那么大规模的基金。但是在今年的市场环境下,明星产品规模的大幅增长,不但不能提升产品的投资收益业绩,反而可能会加大基金经理的管理难度。\n\n Z哥又用WIND统计了今年中报,基金净申购额的排名,其实情况也差不多。偏股型混合基金中(剔除今年新成立的基金),净申购额排名第一的依然是张坤的易方达蓝筹精选,净申购61.68亿份,而刘彦春的景顺长城新兴成长净申购60亿份,谢治宇的兴全合润净申购46亿份;葛兰的中欧医疗健康混合A净申购32.69亿份,中欧医疗健康混合C净申购20亿。\n 相对而言,广发基金的中生代基金经理林英睿管理的广发价值领先算是一个另类,该基金今年上半年的净申购额达到44.3亿份,排进了混合基金的净申购额前十。\n 相反,我们再看看其他那些今年业绩排名顶尖的基金,他们的净申购情况是如何的。\n 比如信诚新兴产业混合,今年以来收益102%,排名第一,但上半年净申购额只有3.3亿份,依然是规模较小的基金。\n 同样今年收益超过100%的长城行业轮动,今年上半年净申购额也只有1.48亿份。而另一只今年收益顶尖的金鹰民族新兴混合,今年上半年的净申购额只有6000多万份。\n 总结下来,今年最能赚钱的基金,却并没有帮多少基民赚到钱。并不是基金经理不够努力,而是基民们不愿意“上车”。\n Z哥觉得,现在基民买基金,还是存在一些误区,这个误区可能也和炒股是一样的。\n 误区一\n 买低不买高,买跌不买涨。\n 总觉得基金净值涨高了,风险就一定比净值低的风险大。看基金的净值曲线,就像看股价走势图一样,跌到下面的才安全。\n 误区二\n 羊群效应。\n 总觉得大家都买的,就一定是好基金,只要跟着明星基金经理走,问题就不大。但是,在今年的行情下,追星似的投基,效果并不理想,浪费时间,也浪费了今年的行情。只愿意买别人推荐的热门基金,不考虑自身情况的盲目跟从,并不一定能带来期待的投资收益,反而可能是一种比较危险的投资行为。\n 误区三\n 对长期价值投资的误解。\n 很多股民,如今改变身份,摇身一变成了基民。似乎只要买基金,长期持有不做调整,就坚守了长期价值投资理念。但实际上,Z哥认为这是对长期价值投资理念的误解。长期价值投资,并不等于“躺平”,而是通过不断学习,努力提升自己的能力范围,该调整投资思路的时候,还是要积极应对。\n 最后,Z哥给大家汇报一下目前“投基Z世代”推出的两个组合目前的收益情况供大家参考。\n 其中,“Z哥实盘”组合推出以来(9月2日创建)收益5.46%,跑赢同期大盘。\n\n\n\n 另外一个“面壁思过”的模拟组合(9月6日创建),创建以来略微亏了0.32%。当然还是那句话,投资基金,不必过于看重短期业绩。\n\n\n\n (风险提示:权益基金属于高风险品种,投资需谨慎。本资料不作为任何法律文件,资料中的所有信息或所表达意见不构成投资、法律、会计或税务的最终操作建议,本人不就资料中的内容对最终操作建议做出任何担保。在任何情况下,本人不对任何人因使用本资料中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。我国基金运作时间较短,不能反映股市发展的所有阶段。定投过往业绩不代表未来表现,投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的风险,不能保证投资人获得收益,也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。\n 投资者在投资基金之前,请仔细阅读基金的《基金合同》、《招募说明书》等基金法律文件,全面认识基金的风险收益特征和产品特性,充分考虑自身的风险承受能力,在了解产品或者服务情况、听取适当性意见的基础上,理性判断市场,根据自身的投资目标、期限、投资经验、资产状况等因素谨慎做出投资决策,独立承担投资风险。市场有风险,入市需谨慎。基金管理人提醒投资者基金投资的“买者自负”原则,在投资者做出投资决策后,基金运营状况、基金份额上市交易价格波动与基金净值变化引致的投资风险,由投资者自行负责。)\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读,尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑:杨红卜","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.64,"09988":0.6,"QNETCN":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888185278,"gmtCreate":1631457253094,"gmtModify":1676530550955,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/888185278","repostId":"1195505573","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3595,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881392033,"gmtCreate":1631289510522,"gmtModify":1676530522410,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/881392033","repostId":"1170461022","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889516181,"gmtCreate":1631157604043,"gmtModify":1676530483046,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/889516181","repostId":"2166229313","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2166229313","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631150284,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2166229313?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-09 09:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Crude under pullback pressure as Fed slows pace of Taper","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2166229313","media":"格隆汇","summary":"随着消息面利好逐步兑现,油价进一步上行驱动不足。","content":"<p><html><body><span>The Fed's Taper expectation is temporarily slowed down and disturbed by hurricane factors, and the international crude oil price has been on the strong side recently.</span><span>However, with the gradual realization of the positive news, the further upward drive of oil prices is insufficient.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Fed Slows Taper Pace</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>The recently released U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August fell short of expectations, with the data only recording an increase of 235,000, the smallest increase since January 2021, and far below the expected 730,000. In July, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised up from 943,000 to 1.05 million, while the unemployment rate recorded 5.2% in August, which was the same as expected. The non-farm payrolls data in the United States is regarded as an important reference indicator for the changes in monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The gap between the data in August and expectations is large, which makes the market think that the pace of the Fed's Taper may slow down.</span></p><p><span>However, at the previous annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, the Federal Reserve also did not specify the specific timetable of Taper, which weakened the market's worries about short-term liquidity tightening, and the the US Dollar Index also declined continuously, which obviously supported the trend of crude oil and other commodities. However, with the continuous recovery of the global economy and the rising inflation, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve gradually reduces the scale of bond purchases in the future, which also means that the liquidity will tend to tighten as a whole in the future, which will be bullish for the US dollar and negative for commodities.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Supply-side uncertainty removal</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>At the beginning of September, the OPEC + meeting announced that the previous production increase plan would be maintained unchanged. In 8-12 months, OPEC + oil-producing countries would grow steadily at a total rate of 400,000 barrels per day, which further eliminated the uncertainty of crude oil supply. Before the end of the year, the output policies of oil-producing countries are not expected to change significantly, and the overall production will be steadily increased. However, gradually withdrawing from production reduction and raising the production baseline next year will still bring some pressure on the supply of the oil market.</span></p><p><span>In addition, the restoration of Iranian crude oil supplies has been delayed due to the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, but Iran has said it is prepared to increase oil production to the highest possible level once the unilateral sanctions imposed by the US government are lifted to compensate for the huge losses caused by unilateral US sanctions. In the first half of this year, Iran's crude oil production and export volume have increased significantly. In July, the output reached 2.5 million barrels per day, a new high in the past two years. However, because the export channel has not been fully opened, Iran's supply will still be limited in the future.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Hurricane Ida destroys oil facilities</font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"></font></span></strong></h3><span>At the end of August, Hurricane Ida hit the U.S. Gulf region and brought water, power and damage to oil facilities. As of Monday, a total of 99 oil and natural gas production platforms in the U.S. Gulf region are still in the state of withdrawal, while 83.87% of crude oil production (or 1.53 million barrels per day) is closed, and the processing demand of refineries is limited. At present, the United States has entered the off-season of seasonal consumption, and the demand for terminal refined oil products and refinery crude oil processing will decrease, and the inventory end will enter the accumulation cycle. In the future, it is not excluded that the US Gulf region will be hit by another hurricane. Hurricanes superimpose seasonal consumption factors, and the demand in the US market will be further suppressed.</span></p><p><span>Based on the above analysis, crude oil is facing correction pressure after the short-term benefits are gradually realized. In the medium term, the general tightening of monetary level and the weakening of seasonal oil consumption will continue to suppress crude oil prices.</span></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Crude under pullback pressure as Fed slows pace of Taper</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrude under pullback pressure as Fed slows pace of Taper\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">格隆汇</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-09 09:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body><span>The Fed's Taper expectation is temporarily slowed down and disturbed by hurricane factors, and the international crude oil price has been on the strong side recently.</span><span>However, with the gradual realization of the positive news, the further upward drive of oil prices is insufficient.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Fed Slows Taper Pace</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>The recently released U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August fell short of expectations, with the data only recording an increase of 235,000, the smallest increase since January 2021, and far below the expected 730,000. In July, the number of new non-farm jobs was revised up from 943,000 to 1.05 million, while the unemployment rate recorded 5.2% in August, which was the same as expected. The non-farm payrolls data in the United States is regarded as an important reference indicator for the changes in monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. The gap between the data in August and expectations is large, which makes the market think that the pace of the Fed's Taper may slow down.</span></p><p><span>However, at the previous annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole, the Federal Reserve also did not specify the specific timetable of Taper, which weakened the market's worries about short-term liquidity tightening, and the the US Dollar Index also declined continuously, which obviously supported the trend of crude oil and other commodities. However, with the continuous recovery of the global economy and the rising inflation, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve gradually reduces the scale of bond purchases in the future, which also means that the liquidity will tend to tighten as a whole in the future, which will be bullish for the US dollar and negative for commodities.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Supply-side uncertainty removal</font></span></strong></h3><div><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></div><span>At the beginning of September, the OPEC + meeting announced that the previous production increase plan would be maintained unchanged. In 8-12 months, OPEC + oil-producing countries would grow steadily at a total rate of 400,000 barrels per day, which further eliminated the uncertainty of crude oil supply. Before the end of the year, the output policies of oil-producing countries are not expected to change significantly, and the overall production will be steadily increased. However, gradually withdrawing from production reduction and raising the production baseline next year will still bring some pressure on the supply of the oil market.</span></p><p><span>In addition, the restoration of Iranian crude oil supplies has been delayed due to the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, but Iran has said it is prepared to increase oil production to the highest possible level once the unilateral sanctions imposed by the US government are lifted to compensate for the huge losses caused by unilateral US sanctions. In the first half of this year, Iran's crude oil production and export volume have increased significantly. In July, the output reached 2.5 million barrels per day, a new high in the past two years. However, because the export channel has not been fully opened, Iran's supply will still be limited in the future.</span></p><p><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"><br/></font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\">Hurricane Ida destroys oil facilities</font></span></strong></h3><h3><strong><span><font color=\"#3daad6\"></font></span></strong></h3><span>At the end of August, Hurricane Ida hit the U.S. Gulf region and brought water, power and damage to oil facilities. As of Monday, a total of 99 oil and natural gas production platforms in the U.S. Gulf region are still in the state of withdrawal, while 83.87% of crude oil production (or 1.53 million barrels per day) is closed, and the processing demand of refineries is limited. At present, the United States has entered the off-season of seasonal consumption, and the demand for terminal refined oil products and refinery crude oil processing will decrease, and the inventory end will enter the accumulation cycle. In the future, it is not excluded that the US Gulf region will be hit by another hurricane. Hurricanes superimpose seasonal consumption factors, and the demand in the US market will be further suppressed.</span></p><p><span>Based on the above analysis, crude oil is facing correction pressure after the short-term benefits are gradually realized. In the medium term, the general tightening of monetary level and the weakening of seasonal oil consumption will continue to suppress crude oil prices.</span></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485936\">格隆汇</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img7.gelonghui.com/apply/126180_20190115/column_article_file_20190115155141320.jpeg","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","USO":"美国原油ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 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Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/485936","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2166229313","content_text":"美联储Taper预期暂时放缓以及受飓风因素扰动,国际原油价格近期整体偏强运行。不过,随着消息面利好逐步兑现,油价进一步上行驱动不足。美联储放缓Taper步伐近期公布的美国8月非农就业数据不及预期,数据仅录得增加23.5万人,创2021年1月以来最小增幅,远低于预期的73万人。而7月非农新增就业人数从94.3万人上修至105万人,同时8月失业率录得5.2%,与预期持平。美国非农就业数据被视为美联储货币政策变化的重要参考指标,8月数据与预期差距较大,令市场认为美联储Taper步伐或放缓。然而,在此前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上,美联储方面同样没有明确Taper的具体时间表,这使得市场对短期流动性收紧的担忧减弱,美元指数也出现连续下跌,对原油等商品走势形成明显支撑。不过,随着全球经济持续复苏以及通胀上升,美联储未来逐步缩减购债规模只是时间问题,这也意味着流动性未来整体会趋于收紧,届时将利多美元、利空商品。供应端的不确定性消除9月初,OPEC+会议宣布维持此前的增产计划不变,8—12个月OPEC+产油国将以总计40万桶/日的速度稳定增长,这进一步消除了原油供应端的不确定性,年底前产油国产量政策预计不会有较大变动,整体将呈现稳定增产的状态。不过,明年逐步退出减产以及提高产量基线,仍会给油市供应带来一定压力。此外,由于美伊谈判陷入僵局,伊朗原油供给的恢复出现延迟,但伊朗方面表示,一旦美国政府单方面的制裁被解除,伊朗准备将石油产量提高到可能的最高水平,以补偿美国单方面制裁造成的巨大损失。今年上半年,伊朗原油产量和出口量已显著增长,7月产量达到250万桶/日,为近两年来新高,但由于出口通道仍未完全打开,所以未来伊朗供给仍将受限。飓风艾达破坏石油设施 8月底,飓风“艾达”侵袭了美湾地区,并带来停水、停电以及石油设施的破坏。截至本周一,美湾地区共有99个石油、天然气生产平台仍处于撤离状态,同时有83.87%的原油产量(或153万桶/日)处于关闭状态,炼厂加工需求受限。目前,美国进入季节性消费淡季,终端成品油需求及炼厂原油加工需求将出现减少,库存端进入累积周期。未来不排除美湾地区再遭飓风侵袭的可能,飓风叠加季节性消费因素,美国市场需求会进一步受到抑制。综合以上分析,短线利好逐步兑现后,原油面临回调压力。中期来看,货币层面大方向收紧以及石油季节性消费弱化将持续压制原油价格。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DWT":0.6,".DJI":1,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"UWTIF":1,"CLmain":1,"MNQmain":0.6,"DWTIF":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"BZmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".IXIC":1,"OEX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"OEF":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"UCO":1,"ESmain":0.6,"DDG":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"DUG":0.6,"SPY":1,"QMmain":1,"UPRO":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"SCO":1,"USO":1,"TQQQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880328398,"gmtCreate":1631021741114,"gmtModify":1676530444509,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880328398","repostId":"2165912804","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817653569,"gmtCreate":1630944641251,"gmtModify":1676530426304,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817653569","repostId":"1145607463","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817653280,"gmtCreate":1630944632740,"gmtModify":1676530426300,"author":{"id":"3550981834405712","authorId":"3550981834405712","name":"小涩涩墩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7940b18333fd2be898cd74d677d8729","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3550981834405712","idStr":"3550981834405712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"…","listText":"…","text":"…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/817653280","repostId":"1169885756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}