Profile - To The Moon

求知的戴维斯

Posts · 1Posts · 1
Following · 0Following · 0
Followers · 0Followers · 0

- 求知的戴维斯求知的戴维斯
  ·2021-03-06
  6
  Why Munger doesn't make big mistakes: List the reasons for failure as a pre-decision checklist
  “大部分人更关心如何在股市投资上成功，查理（芒格）最关心的却是为什么在股市投资上大部分人都失败了。”这是芒格家族财富主要管理者、喜马拉雅资本创始人李录在《穷查理宝典》的序言中提到的。根据李录的观察，在
  Why Munger doesn't make big mistakes: List the reasons for failure as a pre-decision checklist
  2.08K Comment
  Like
  Share
  Report

Most Discussed

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3556773641755150","uuid":"3556773641755150","gmtCreate":1593679622778,"gmtModify":1611328914193,"name":"求知的戴维斯","pinyin":"qzddwsqiuzhidedaiweisi","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70edf05f7140f2fc7ea8b98397f24e67","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":30,"tweetSize":1,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":34,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.27","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84-1","templateUuid":"a83d7582f45846ffbccbce770ce65d84","name":"Real Trader","description":"Completed a transaction","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":320354288,"gmtCreate":1615025001344,"gmtModify":1704778264031,"author":{"id":"3556773641755150","authorId":"3556773641755150","name":"求知的戴维斯","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70edf05f7140f2fc7ea8b98397f24e67","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556773641755150","idStr":"3556773641755150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"6","listText":"6","text":"6","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/320354288","repostId":"1177776581","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177776581","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614998459,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177776581?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-03-06 10:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Why Munger doesn't make big mistakes: List the reasons for failure as a pre-decision checklist","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177776581","media":"投资银行在线","summary":"“大部分人更关心如何在股市投资上成功，查理（芒格）最关心的却是为什么在股市投资上大部分人都失败了。”这是芒格家族财富主要管理者、喜马拉雅资本创始人李录在《穷查理宝典》的序言中提到的。根据李录的观察，在","content":"<p>“<b>Most people are more concerned with how to succeed in stock market investing, but Charlie (Munger) is most concerned with why most people fail in stock market investing.</b>”</p><p>This was mentioned by Li Lu, the main manager of the Munger family's wealth and founder of Himalaya Capital, in the preface to \"Poor Charlie's Guide\".</p><p>According to Li Lu's observations, throughout his long life, Munger continuously collected and studied various famous failure cases, and<b>Arrange the reasons for those failures into a checklist before making the right decisions.</b>This allowed him to almost never make major mistakes in his life and career decisions.</p><p>Without a doubt, Poor Charlie's Guide is one of the most repeatedly read investment books. Xiaoya read it at least 10 times, at different stages of her life, and gained different insights.</p><p>Among them, Li Lu's Chinese preface to this book is the best interpretation of the book, combining the wisdom of Munger and Li Lu, and is full of both investment wisdom and life wisdom.</p><p>Li Lu places great emphasis on honesty in knowledge and opposes using dogmatism and rules to define things simply. When Xiaoya consulted Mr. Li Lu face-to-face before, Li Lu had reminded her not to be dogmatic.</p><p>In a recent interview with domestic media, Li Lu also mentioned: \"I personally...\"<b>I oppose using 'ideology' to define many things... Investing is a pragmatic matter.</b>。”</p><p>Li Lu repeatedly mentioned this in the preface to his book \"Poor Charlie's Guide\".<b>Munger \"was never bound by any rules or dogma.\"</b>。” Reading it again will give you a deeper understanding.</p><p>In the preface, Li Lu generously shared his life experiences, which can offer insights into how we make choices as we grow up. He also generously shared his close observations of Munger, showing that life wisdom can be seen in the details.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6736de7ff6b015d41a94b66f10e85c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>List the reasons for failure into a checklist before making the right decision.</b></p><p>Buffett said he has met countless people in his life, but he has never met anyone like Charlie.</p><p>Over the years of my association with Charlie, I have had the privilege of knowing him closely, and I firmly believe this. I have not even found similar people in the biographies of ancient and modern Chinese and foreign figures that I have read.</p><p>Charlie was such a unique person, and his uniqueness was reflected in both his thoughts and his personality.</p><p>For example, Charlie always started thinking backwards.</p><p>To understand how life can be happy, Charlie first studies how life can become painful.</p><p>To study how companies grow stronger and bigger, Charlie first studied how companies decline;</p><p><b>Most people are more concerned with how to succeed in stock market investing, but Charlie is most concerned with why most people fail in stock market investing.</b></p><p>His way of thinking derives from the philosophy contained in the following farmer's proverb:<b>I just want to know where I will die in the future, so that I will never go there.</b></p><p>Throughout his long life, Charlie continuously collected and studied famous failures of all kinds of people, businesses from all walks of life, and in various fields such as government governance and academic research.<b>Arrange the reasons for those failures into a checklist before making the right decisions.</b>This allowed him to almost never make major mistakes in his life and career decisions. The importance of this to Buffett's and Berkshire's 50-year performance cannot be overemphasized.</p><p><b>Undogmatic and unbound by rules and regulations</b></p><p>Charlie's mind is original,<b>Never bound by any rules or dogmas</b>。 He possessed a childlike curiosity, as well as the research qualities and methods of a first-class scientist. He had a strong thirst for knowledge throughout his life and was interested in almost all questions.</p><p>In his view, any problem can be fully mastered through self-study using the right methods, and he can innovate on the basis of his predecessors. In this respect he was very similar to Franklin, resembling an encyclopedic figure of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries.</p><p>Many leading experts and scholars in modern times were able to be relatively objective within their narrow research fields, but once they strayed far from their own fields, they became subjective, dogmatic, rigid, or simply lost the ability to learn on their own. Therefore, most of them were inevitably subject to the limitations of the blind men and the elephant.</p><p><b>Charlie's mind was never bound by the rules and regulations of any subject.</b>。 His thoughts radiate to every corner of career, life, and knowledge.</p><p>In his view, everything in the universe is an interacting whole, and all human knowledge is a partial attempt to study this whole. Only by combining this knowledge and integrating it into a framework of thought can it help with correct cognition and decision-making.</p><p>Therefore, he advocated learning the truly important theories in all disciplines and forming so-called \"universal wisdom\" on this basis, using this as a powerful tool to study important issues in the field of business investment. In this book, Charlie explains in detail how to obtain such \"universal wisdom\".</p><p><b>Be honest with knowledge and define your circle of competence.</b></p><p>Charlie's way of thinking is<b>Based on honesty in knowledge</b>。</p><p>He believes that the world is complex and ever-changing, and human cognition is always limited. Therefore, you must use all tools, while also focusing on collecting various new evidence that can prove it or not, and revising it at any time, which is the so-called \"knowing what you know is knowing, and not knowing what you don't know is not knowing\".</p><p>In fact, all people have blind spots in their thinking. We may be able to be objective about our own profession, others, or a certain thing, but it is difficult to maintain an objective attitude towards everything in the world, and it can even be said to be against human nature. But Charlie can be objective in everything.</p><p>In this book, Charlie also talks about how objectivity can be cultivated through acquired training. Developing this way of thinking will allow you to see things that others cannot, predict the future that others cannot predict, and thus live a happier, freer, and more successful life.</p><p>Even so, the true foresight and insight a person can gain in a lifetime is still very limited, so<b>Correct decision-making must be limited to one's own \"circle of competence\".</b>。 An ability that cannot define its boundaries certainly cannot be called a true ability.</p><p>How can I define my sphere of competence? Charlie said,<b>If I'm going to have an opinion, if I can't prove myself better than the smartest, most capable, and most qualified person in the world to refute it, I don't deserve to have it.</b></p><p>So when Charlie actually held an opinion, his ideas were original, unique, and almost never wrong.</p><p><b>Use reason to see through the essence of things</b></p><p>Once, a beautiful lady sitting next to Charlie insisted that Charlie summarize his success in one word, which Charlie said was \"rationality.\" However,<b>The \"rationality\" Charlie was talking about was not the rationality we usually understand.</b>。 Charlie has a harsher definition of reason.</p><p>It was this kind of \"rationality\" that gave Charlie a keen eye and insight, allowing him to see through the essence of things at a glance, even in completely unfamiliar fields.</p><p>Buffett calls this characteristic of Charlie the \"two-minute effect\"—he says Charlie can explain the essence of a complex business in the shortest amount of time than anyone else in the world. Berkshire Hathaway's investment in BYD is a prime example.</p><p>I remember when I first talked to Charlie about BYD in 2003, although he had never met Wang Chuanfu himself, never visited BYD's factory, and was even relatively unfamiliar with the Chinese market and culture, the questions and comments he raised about BYD at the time still seem to be the most substantial questions about investing in BYD today.</p><p>Everyone has blind spots, even the most outstanding people are no exception.</p><p>Buffett said, \"Benjamin Greenham once taught me to only buy cheap stocks, and Charlie changed that mindset. That's Charlie's real influence on me. It took a powerful force to get me out of Greenham's limiting theories. Charlie's thoughts were that force; he broadened my horizons.\"</p><p>I myself have a deep understanding of this. On at least two major issues, Charlie helped me point out blind spots in my thinking, and if it weren't for his help, I would still be slowly crawling through the process of evolution from ape to man. Buffett has repeatedly emphasized on various occasions over the past 50 years that Charlie's influence on him and Berkshire Hathaway is irreplaceable.</p><p>Charlie spent his life studying catastrophic human errors, with a particular fondness for catastrophic errors caused by human psychological tendencies. Most notably, he predicted that the proliferation of financial derivatives and loopholes in accounting and auditing systems would soon bring disaster to humanity.</p><p>As early as the late 1990s, he and Mr. Buffett had already warned that financial derivatives could have a catastrophic impact. As the proliferation of financial derivatives intensified, their warnings were constantly escalating, even pointing out that financial derivatives were financial weapons of mass destruction that, if not stopped in a timely and effective manner, would have a catastrophic impact on modern civilized society.</p><p>The financial crises of 2008 and 2009 and the Great Depression unfortunately validated Charlie's foresight. On the other hand, his research on these issues also provides valuable experience and knowledge for preventing similar disasters, which deserves special attention from the government, financial, business and academic communities.</p><p><b>Solve practical problems and pay attention to details</b></p><p>Charlie has a wider range of interests than Buffett. For example, he has a strong interest and extensive research in almost all fields of science and soft science. Through integration, he has formed an original and unique Munger thought system.</p><p>Compared to any thought system from within the ivory tower, Mungerism was born entirely to solve practical problems.</p><p>For example, as far as I know, Charlie was the first to propose and systematically study the enormous influence of human psychological tendencies on investment and business decisions. More than a decade later, behavioral finance has become the most popular research field in economics, and behavioral economics has also been recognized by the Nobel Prize in Economics. The theoretical framework presented by Charlie in the last lecture of this book, \"The Psychology of Human Misjudgment,\" is likely to be understood and applied more widely in the future.</p><p>Charlie's interests are not limited to thinking,<b>He likes to experience and do everything himself and pays attention to detail.</b></p><p>He owns the world's largest private catamaran, which he designed himself. He is also an excellent architect. He built the house according to his own preferences, and he was involved in every detail from the initial design drawings to the subsequent ones.</p><p>For example, all the buildings he donated were designed by himself, including the Stanford Graduate School dormitory building, the Harvard-Westlake School Science Museum, and the Rare Book Research Gallery at the Huntington Library and Gardens.</p><p>Charlie was naturally energetic. I met Charlie in 1996 when he was 72 years old. Charlie is 86 years old this year, more than a decade has passed.</p><p>For more than a decade, Charlie's energy had remained unchanged. He is always full of energy and gets up early. Breakfast meetings always start at 7:30. At the same time, due to certain dinner parties and social engagements, he may sleep less than usual, but this does not hinder his vigorous energy.</p><p>Moreover, he has an amazing memory. I had a vague memory of BYD's operating figures that I told him many years ago, but he still remembers them. At 86 years old, he has a better memory than a young person like me. These were his innate strengths, but the qualities that made him exceptionally successful were all acquired through hard work.</p><p><b>The timing of success is important, but a person's inner qualities are even more important.</b></p><p>To me, Charlie is not only a partner, but also an elder, a teacher, a friend, a model of career success, and a role model for life. From him, I not only learned the principles of value investing, but also a lot of principles of life.</p><p>He made me understand,<b>A person's success is not accidental. While timing is important, a person's inner qualities are even more important.</b></p><p>Charlie likes to meet people for breakfast, usually at seven thirty. I remember the first time I had breakfast with Charlie, I arrived on time and found him sitting there reading the day's newspaper. Although it was still a few minutes before 7:30, I felt very uncomfortable having a highly respected old man wait for me.</p><p>On the second date, I arrived about fifteen minutes early and found Charlie already sitting there reading the newspaper.</p><p>By the third appointment, I arrived half an hour early, and Charlie was still there reading the newspaper, as if he had never left his seat, waiting all year round.</p><p>It wasn't until the fourth time, when I bravely arrived an hour early, that I sat there waiting at six-thirty, that at six-forty-five Charlie walked in leisurely, carrying a stack of newspapers in his hand, and sat down without looking up, completely oblivious to my presence.</p><p>Later I gradually learned that Charlie<b>You must arrive early for a date.</b>。 When they arrived, they didn't waste any time; they would take out the newspapers they had prepared and read them.</p><p>Ever since I learned about Charlie's habit, every time we go on a date, I'll arrive early, read a newspaper, not disturb each other, and wait until after 7:30 to have breakfast and chat together.</p><p>Occasionally, Charlie would be late. Once I took a young entrepreneur from China to meet Charlie. Charlie was half an hour late because he had come from a luncheon.</p><p>Upon arrival, Charlie apologized profusely to the two young men, explained in detail why he was late, and even suggested how the luncheon Valet park could be improved to avoid delaying the guests' 45-minute wait.</p><p>The young Chinese man was both surprised and moved, because there was probably no elder in the world of Charlie's status who would repeatedly apologize to the younger generation for being late.</p><p><b>Integrate into life and get up close to ordinary people</b></p><p>Another thing in my relationship with Charlie had a profound impact on me. One year, Charlie and I attended a party together in another city.</p><p>After the event, I was rushing back to New York, but unexpectedly, I ran into Charlie in the airport departure lounge. When his massive body passed through the security detector, for some reason the detector kept beeping and warning. Charlie repeatedly turned back to undergo security checks. After all this trouble, he finally passed security and his plane had already taken off.</p><p>But Charlie wasn't in a hurry. He pulled out his book, sat down to read, and waited quietly for the next flight. My flight happened to be delayed that day, so I waited with him.</p><p>I asked Charlie, \"You have your own private jet, and Berkshire Hathaway has its own private jet. Why do you have to go through so much trouble at a commercial airport?\"</p><p>Charlie replied, \"First, it's a waste of fuel for me to fly alone on a private jet. Second, I think it's safer to fly on a commercial jet.\" But Charlie's real reason was the third:<b>All I want in life is to engage in life; I don't want to be isolated.</b>。”</p><p>What Charlie couldn't stand most was losing contact with the world because he had money. He isolated himself in a single room, in a giant office that took up one floor. When they met, he had to be informed layer by layer, and no one could easily come into contact with him. This is out of touch with real life.</p><p>“As long as I have a book in my hand, I don’t feel like I’m wasting time.” Charlie always carries a book with him, and even when he’s sitting in the middle seat of economy class, he feels at ease as long as he holds the book.</p><p>Once he went to Seattle to attend a board meeting and, as usual, flew economy class. Next to him was a little Chinese girl who had been doing her calculus homework the whole time during the flight.</p><p>He was deeply impressed by this little Chinese girl because he could hardly imagine that an American girl of the same age could have such composure to concentrate on studying amidst the noise of the plane. If he had taken a private jet, he would never have had the opportunity to get up close and personal with the stories of these ordinary people.</p><p><b>Be strict with yourself and kind to others.</b></p><p>Although Charlie was strict with himself, he was very generous to those he truly cared about and loved. He was generous with money and always hoped that others would benefit as much as possible.</p><p>He traveled alone in economy class for both official and private business, but when traveling with his wife and family, Charlie would fly on his own private jet.</p><p>He explained: \"My wife has raised so many children for me throughout her life and has sacrificed a lot, but she is in poor health. I must take good care of her.\"</p><p>Although Charlie did not graduate from Stanford University, because his wife is a Stanford alumnus and a member of the university's board of directors, Charlie donated more than $60 million to Stanford University.</p><p>Once Charlie decided to do something, he could do it for the rest of his life. For example, he served on the boards of the Harvard-Westlake School and a charitable hospital in Los Angeles for 40 years.</p><p>Charlie was a very generous patron to the charities he was involved with. Moreover, Charlie invested more than just money; he also invested a great deal of time and energy to ensure the successful operation of these institutions.</p><p>Charlie spent his life studying the causes of human failure, so he had a deep understanding of human weaknesses. Based on this, he believes<b>To Charlie, it was a moral requirement to be strict with oneself.</b></p><p>To outsiders, Charlie may seem like an ascetic, but to Charlie, the process is both rational and enjoyable, capable of leading a successful and happy life.</p><p>That's just how unique Charlie is. But think about it: if Munger and Buffett weren't so unique, they wouldn't have been able to create unprecedented and unprecedented results for Berkshire Hathaway in 50 years.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, interest in the study of Buffett and Munger has grown stronger worldwide and may continue to intensify in the future. There are numerous books in both Chinese and English, some of which offer unique insights.</p><p>To be honest, it's too early to judge Munger's thoughts based on my current abilities, because to this day, every time I talk to Charlie and reread his speeches, I gain something new.</p><p>This also shows that my understanding of his thoughts is still insufficient. But over the years, Charlie's words and deeds have given me the opportunity to gain a more intuitive understanding of Charlie's thoughts and personality. Here, I just want to share my own close observations and personal experiences with readers.</p>","source":"lsy1605165391860","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Munger doesn't make big mistakes: List the reasons for failure as a pre-decision checklist</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Munger doesn't make big mistakes: List the reasons for failure as a pre-decision checklist\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">投资银行在线</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-06 10:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>“<b>Most people are more concerned with how to succeed in stock market investing, but Charlie (Munger) is most concerned with why most people fail in stock market investing.</b>”</p><p>This was mentioned by Li Lu, the main manager of the Munger family's wealth and founder of Himalaya Capital, in the preface to \"Poor Charlie's Guide\".</p><p>According to Li Lu's observations, throughout his long life, Munger continuously collected and studied various famous failure cases, and<b>Arrange the reasons for those failures into a checklist before making the right decisions.</b>This allowed him to almost never make major mistakes in his life and career decisions.</p><p>Without a doubt, Poor Charlie's Guide is one of the most repeatedly read investment books. Xiaoya read it at least 10 times, at different stages of her life, and gained different insights.</p><p>Among them, Li Lu's Chinese preface to this book is the best interpretation of the book, combining the wisdom of Munger and Li Lu, and is full of both investment wisdom and life wisdom.</p><p>Li Lu places great emphasis on honesty in knowledge and opposes using dogmatism and rules to define things simply. When Xiaoya consulted Mr. Li Lu face-to-face before, Li Lu had reminded her not to be dogmatic.</p><p>In a recent interview with domestic media, Li Lu also mentioned: \"I personally...\"<b>I oppose using 'ideology' to define many things... Investing is a pragmatic matter.</b>。”</p><p>Li Lu repeatedly mentioned this in the preface to his book \"Poor Charlie's Guide\".<b>Munger \"was never bound by any rules or dogma.\"</b>。” Reading it again will give you a deeper understanding.</p><p>In the preface, Li Lu generously shared his life experiences, which can offer insights into how we make choices as we grow up. He also generously shared his close observations of Munger, showing that life wisdom can be seen in the details.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6736de7ff6b015d41a94b66f10e85c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>List the reasons for failure into a checklist before making the right decision.</b></p><p>Buffett said he has met countless people in his life, but he has never met anyone like Charlie.</p><p>Over the years of my association with Charlie, I have had the privilege of knowing him closely, and I firmly believe this. I have not even found similar people in the biographies of ancient and modern Chinese and foreign figures that I have read.</p><p>Charlie was such a unique person, and his uniqueness was reflected in both his thoughts and his personality.</p><p>For example, Charlie always started thinking backwards.</p><p>To understand how life can be happy, Charlie first studies how life can become painful.</p><p>To study how companies grow stronger and bigger, Charlie first studied how companies decline;</p><p><b>Most people are more concerned with how to succeed in stock market investing, but Charlie is most concerned with why most people fail in stock market investing.</b></p><p>His way of thinking derives from the philosophy contained in the following farmer's proverb:<b>I just want to know where I will die in the future, so that I will never go there.</b></p><p>Throughout his long life, Charlie continuously collected and studied famous failures of all kinds of people, businesses from all walks of life, and in various fields such as government governance and academic research.<b>Arrange the reasons for those failures into a checklist before making the right decisions.</b>This allowed him to almost never make major mistakes in his life and career decisions. The importance of this to Buffett's and Berkshire's 50-year performance cannot be overemphasized.</p><p><b>Undogmatic and unbound by rules and regulations</b></p><p>Charlie's mind is original,<b>Never bound by any rules or dogmas</b>。 He possessed a childlike curiosity, as well as the research qualities and methods of a first-class scientist. He had a strong thirst for knowledge throughout his life and was interested in almost all questions.</p><p>In his view, any problem can be fully mastered through self-study using the right methods, and he can innovate on the basis of his predecessors. In this respect he was very similar to Franklin, resembling an encyclopedic figure of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries.</p><p>Many leading experts and scholars in modern times were able to be relatively objective within their narrow research fields, but once they strayed far from their own fields, they became subjective, dogmatic, rigid, or simply lost the ability to learn on their own. Therefore, most of them were inevitably subject to the limitations of the blind men and the elephant.</p><p><b>Charlie's mind was never bound by the rules and regulations of any subject.</b>。 His thoughts radiate to every corner of career, life, and knowledge.</p><p>In his view, everything in the universe is an interacting whole, and all human knowledge is a partial attempt to study this whole. Only by combining this knowledge and integrating it into a framework of thought can it help with correct cognition and decision-making.</p><p>Therefore, he advocated learning the truly important theories in all disciplines and forming so-called \"universal wisdom\" on this basis, using this as a powerful tool to study important issues in the field of business investment. In this book, Charlie explains in detail how to obtain such \"universal wisdom\".</p><p><b>Be honest with knowledge and define your circle of competence.</b></p><p>Charlie's way of thinking is<b>Based on honesty in knowledge</b>。</p><p>He believes that the world is complex and ever-changing, and human cognition is always limited. Therefore, you must use all tools, while also focusing on collecting various new evidence that can prove it or not, and revising it at any time, which is the so-called \"knowing what you know is knowing, and not knowing what you don't know is not knowing\".</p><p>In fact, all people have blind spots in their thinking. We may be able to be objective about our own profession, others, or a certain thing, but it is difficult to maintain an objective attitude towards everything in the world, and it can even be said to be against human nature. But Charlie can be objective in everything.</p><p>In this book, Charlie also talks about how objectivity can be cultivated through acquired training. Developing this way of thinking will allow you to see things that others cannot, predict the future that others cannot predict, and thus live a happier, freer, and more successful life.</p><p>Even so, the true foresight and insight a person can gain in a lifetime is still very limited, so<b>Correct decision-making must be limited to one's own \"circle of competence\".</b>。 An ability that cannot define its boundaries certainly cannot be called a true ability.</p><p>How can I define my sphere of competence? Charlie said,<b>If I'm going to have an opinion, if I can't prove myself better than the smartest, most capable, and most qualified person in the world to refute it, I don't deserve to have it.</b></p><p>So when Charlie actually held an opinion, his ideas were original, unique, and almost never wrong.</p><p><b>Use reason to see through the essence of things</b></p><p>Once, a beautiful lady sitting next to Charlie insisted that Charlie summarize his success in one word, which Charlie said was \"rationality.\" However,<b>The \"rationality\" Charlie was talking about was not the rationality we usually understand.</b>。 Charlie has a harsher definition of reason.</p><p>It was this kind of \"rationality\" that gave Charlie a keen eye and insight, allowing him to see through the essence of things at a glance, even in completely unfamiliar fields.</p><p>Buffett calls this characteristic of Charlie the \"two-minute effect\"—he says Charlie can explain the essence of a complex business in the shortest amount of time than anyone else in the world. Berkshire Hathaway's investment in BYD is a prime example.</p><p>I remember when I first talked to Charlie about BYD in 2003, although he had never met Wang Chuanfu himself, never visited BYD's factory, and was even relatively unfamiliar with the Chinese market and culture, the questions and comments he raised about BYD at the time still seem to be the most substantial questions about investing in BYD today.</p><p>Everyone has blind spots, even the most outstanding people are no exception.</p><p>Buffett said, \"Benjamin Greenham once taught me to only buy cheap stocks, and Charlie changed that mindset. That's Charlie's real influence on me. It took a powerful force to get me out of Greenham's limiting theories. Charlie's thoughts were that force; he broadened my horizons.\"</p><p>I myself have a deep understanding of this. On at least two major issues, Charlie helped me point out blind spots in my thinking, and if it weren't for his help, I would still be slowly crawling through the process of evolution from ape to man. Buffett has repeatedly emphasized on various occasions over the past 50 years that Charlie's influence on him and Berkshire Hathaway is irreplaceable.</p><p>Charlie spent his life studying catastrophic human errors, with a particular fondness for catastrophic errors caused by human psychological tendencies. Most notably, he predicted that the proliferation of financial derivatives and loopholes in accounting and auditing systems would soon bring disaster to humanity.</p><p>As early as the late 1990s, he and Mr. Buffett had already warned that financial derivatives could have a catastrophic impact. As the proliferation of financial derivatives intensified, their warnings were constantly escalating, even pointing out that financial derivatives were financial weapons of mass destruction that, if not stopped in a timely and effective manner, would have a catastrophic impact on modern civilized society.</p><p>The financial crises of 2008 and 2009 and the Great Depression unfortunately validated Charlie's foresight. On the other hand, his research on these issues also provides valuable experience and knowledge for preventing similar disasters, which deserves special attention from the government, financial, business and academic communities.</p><p><b>Solve practical problems and pay attention to details</b></p><p>Charlie has a wider range of interests than Buffett. For example, he has a strong interest and extensive research in almost all fields of science and soft science. Through integration, he has formed an original and unique Munger thought system.</p><p>Compared to any thought system from within the ivory tower, Mungerism was born entirely to solve practical problems.</p><p>For example, as far as I know, Charlie was the first to propose and systematically study the enormous influence of human psychological tendencies on investment and business decisions. More than a decade later, behavioral finance has become the most popular research field in economics, and behavioral economics has also been recognized by the Nobel Prize in Economics. The theoretical framework presented by Charlie in the last lecture of this book, \"The Psychology of Human Misjudgment,\" is likely to be understood and applied more widely in the future.</p><p>Charlie's interests are not limited to thinking,<b>He likes to experience and do everything himself and pays attention to detail.</b></p><p>He owns the world's largest private catamaran, which he designed himself. He is also an excellent architect. He built the house according to his own preferences, and he was involved in every detail from the initial design drawings to the subsequent ones.</p><p>For example, all the buildings he donated were designed by himself, including the Stanford Graduate School dormitory building, the Harvard-Westlake School Science Museum, and the Rare Book Research Gallery at the Huntington Library and Gardens.</p><p>Charlie was naturally energetic. I met Charlie in 1996 when he was 72 years old. Charlie is 86 years old this year, more than a decade has passed.</p><p>For more than a decade, Charlie's energy had remained unchanged. He is always full of energy and gets up early. Breakfast meetings always start at 7:30. At the same time, due to certain dinner parties and social engagements, he may sleep less than usual, but this does not hinder his vigorous energy.</p><p>Moreover, he has an amazing memory. I had a vague memory of BYD's operating figures that I told him many years ago, but he still remembers them. At 86 years old, he has a better memory than a young person like me. These were his innate strengths, but the qualities that made him exceptionally successful were all acquired through hard work.</p><p><b>The timing of success is important, but a person's inner qualities are even more important.</b></p><p>To me, Charlie is not only a partner, but also an elder, a teacher, a friend, a model of career success, and a role model for life. From him, I not only learned the principles of value investing, but also a lot of principles of life.</p><p>He made me understand,<b>A person's success is not accidental. While timing is important, a person's inner qualities are even more important.</b></p><p>Charlie likes to meet people for breakfast, usually at seven thirty. I remember the first time I had breakfast with Charlie, I arrived on time and found him sitting there reading the day's newspaper. Although it was still a few minutes before 7:30, I felt very uncomfortable having a highly respected old man wait for me.</p><p>On the second date, I arrived about fifteen minutes early and found Charlie already sitting there reading the newspaper.</p><p>By the third appointment, I arrived half an hour early, and Charlie was still there reading the newspaper, as if he had never left his seat, waiting all year round.</p><p>It wasn't until the fourth time, when I bravely arrived an hour early, that I sat there waiting at six-thirty, that at six-forty-five Charlie walked in leisurely, carrying a stack of newspapers in his hand, and sat down without looking up, completely oblivious to my presence.</p><p>Later I gradually learned that Charlie<b>You must arrive early for a date.</b>。 When they arrived, they didn't waste any time; they would take out the newspapers they had prepared and read them.</p><p>Ever since I learned about Charlie's habit, every time we go on a date, I'll arrive early, read a newspaper, not disturb each other, and wait until after 7:30 to have breakfast and chat together.</p><p>Occasionally, Charlie would be late. Once I took a young entrepreneur from China to meet Charlie. Charlie was half an hour late because he had come from a luncheon.</p><p>Upon arrival, Charlie apologized profusely to the two young men, explained in detail why he was late, and even suggested how the luncheon Valet park could be improved to avoid delaying the guests' 45-minute wait.</p><p>The young Chinese man was both surprised and moved, because there was probably no elder in the world of Charlie's status who would repeatedly apologize to the younger generation for being late.</p><p><b>Integrate into life and get up close to ordinary people</b></p><p>Another thing in my relationship with Charlie had a profound impact on me. One year, Charlie and I attended a party together in another city.</p><p>After the event, I was rushing back to New York, but unexpectedly, I ran into Charlie in the airport departure lounge. When his massive body passed through the security detector, for some reason the detector kept beeping and warning. Charlie repeatedly turned back to undergo security checks. After all this trouble, he finally passed security and his plane had already taken off.</p><p>But Charlie wasn't in a hurry. He pulled out his book, sat down to read, and waited quietly for the next flight. My flight happened to be delayed that day, so I waited with him.</p><p>I asked Charlie, \"You have your own private jet, and Berkshire Hathaway has its own private jet. Why do you have to go through so much trouble at a commercial airport?\"</p><p>Charlie replied, \"First, it's a waste of fuel for me to fly alone on a private jet. Second, I think it's safer to fly on a commercial jet.\" But Charlie's real reason was the third:<b>All I want in life is to engage in life; I don't want to be isolated.</b>。”</p><p>What Charlie couldn't stand most was losing contact with the world because he had money. He isolated himself in a single room, in a giant office that took up one floor. When they met, he had to be informed layer by layer, and no one could easily come into contact with him. This is out of touch with real life.</p><p>“As long as I have a book in my hand, I don’t feel like I’m wasting time.” Charlie always carries a book with him, and even when he’s sitting in the middle seat of economy class, he feels at ease as long as he holds the book.</p><p>Once he went to Seattle to attend a board meeting and, as usual, flew economy class. Next to him was a little Chinese girl who had been doing her calculus homework the whole time during the flight.</p><p>He was deeply impressed by this little Chinese girl because he could hardly imagine that an American girl of the same age could have such composure to concentrate on studying amidst the noise of the plane. If he had taken a private jet, he would never have had the opportunity to get up close and personal with the stories of these ordinary people.</p><p><b>Be strict with yourself and kind to others.</b></p><p>Although Charlie was strict with himself, he was very generous to those he truly cared about and loved. He was generous with money and always hoped that others would benefit as much as possible.</p><p>He traveled alone in economy class for both official and private business, but when traveling with his wife and family, Charlie would fly on his own private jet.</p><p>He explained: \"My wife has raised so many children for me throughout her life and has sacrificed a lot, but she is in poor health. I must take good care of her.\"</p><p>Although Charlie did not graduate from Stanford University, because his wife is a Stanford alumnus and a member of the university's board of directors, Charlie donated more than $60 million to Stanford University.</p><p>Once Charlie decided to do something, he could do it for the rest of his life. For example, he served on the boards of the Harvard-Westlake School and a charitable hospital in Los Angeles for 40 years.</p><p>Charlie was a very generous patron to the charities he was involved with. Moreover, Charlie invested more than just money; he also invested a great deal of time and energy to ensure the successful operation of these institutions.</p><p>Charlie spent his life studying the causes of human failure, so he had a deep understanding of human weaknesses. Based on this, he believes<b>To Charlie, it was a moral requirement to be strict with oneself.</b></p><p>To outsiders, Charlie may seem like an ascetic, but to Charlie, the process is both rational and enjoyable, capable of leading a successful and happy life.</p><p>That's just how unique Charlie is. But think about it: if Munger and Buffett weren't so unique, they wouldn't have been able to create unprecedented and unprecedented results for Berkshire Hathaway in 50 years.</p><p>Over the past 20 years, interest in the study of Buffett and Munger has grown stronger worldwide and may continue to intensify in the future. There are numerous books in both Chinese and English, some of which offer unique insights.</p><p>To be honest, it's too early to judge Munger's thoughts based on my current abilities, because to this day, every time I talk to Charlie and reread his speeches, I gain something new.</p><p>This also shows that my understanding of his thoughts is still insufficient. But over the years, Charlie's words and deeds have given me the opportunity to gain a more intuitive understanding of Charlie's thoughts and personality. Here, I just want to share my own close observations and personal experiences with readers.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A_g7i5Yv_xu41-D5pasQCA\">投资银行在线</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e6736de7ff6b015d41a94b66f10e85c","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/A_g7i5Yv_xu41-D5pasQCA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177776581","content_text":"“大部分人更关心如何在股市投资上成功，查理（芒格）最关心的却是为什么在股市投资上大部分人都失败了。”这是芒格家族财富主要管理者、喜马拉雅资本创始人李录在《穷查理宝典》的序言中提到的。根据李录的观察，在芒格漫长的一生中，持续不断地收集并研究关于各种各样的著名失败案例，并把那些失败的原因排列成作出正确决策前的检查清单，这使他在人生、事业的决策上几乎从不犯重大错误。毫无疑问，《穷查理宝典》是最值得反复读的投资书籍之一。小雅读了不下10遍，在人生的不同阶段读，有着不同的收获。其中，李录为此书做的中文序言，是这本书最好的解读，集芒格和李录智慧之大成，既有投资智慧，也充满人生智慧。李录非常强调对知识的诚实，反对用教条主义和条条框框对事情做简单定义，之前小雅跟李录先生面对面请教时，李录曾对不要教条做过提醒。李录最近在接受国内媒体最新一次访谈时也提到：”我个人很反对用‘主义’去定义很多事......投资是一件实事求是的事。”李录在《穷查理宝典》一书的序言中，其实也反复提到了芒格“从来不受任何条条框框的束缚，也没有任何教条。”回过头来再读，会理解更深刻。序言中，李录不吝分享了他的人生经历，对我们在成长中如何做选择会有启示；他也慷慨分享了自己对芒格的近距离观察，在细节中可以看到人生智慧。把失败原因排成正确决策前的检查清单巴菲特说他一生遇人无数，从来没有遇到过像查理这样的人。在同查理交往的这些年里，我有幸能近距离了解查理，也对这一点深信不疑。甚至在我所阅读过的古今中外人物传记中也没有发现类似的人。查理就是如此独特的人，他的独特性既表现在他的思想上，也表现在他的人格上。比如说，查理思考问题总是从逆向开始。如果要明白人生如何才能得到幸福，查理首先会研究人生如何才能变得痛苦；要研究企业如何做强做大，查理首先研究企业是如何衰败的；大部分人更关心如何在股市投资上成功，查理最关心的却是为什么在股市投资上大部分人都失败了。他的这种思考方法来源于下面这句农夫谚语中所蕴含的哲理：我只想知道将来我会死在什么地方，这样我就永远不去那儿了。查理在他漫长的一生中，持续不断地收集并研究关于各种各样的人物、各行各业的企业以及政府管治、学术研究等各领域中的著名失败案例，并把那些失败的原因排列成作出正确决策前的检查清单，这使他在人生、事业的决策上几乎从不犯重大错误。这点对巴菲特及伯克希尔50年业绩的重要性是再强调也不为过的。不教条，不受条条框框的束缚查理的头脑是原创性的，从来不受任何条条框框的束缚，也没有任何教条。他有儿童一样的好奇心，又有第一流科学家所具备的研究素质和科学研究方法，一生都有强烈的求知欲，几乎对所有的问题都感兴趣。任何一个问题在他看来都可以使用正确的方法通过自学完全掌握，并可以在前人的基础上进行创新。在这点上他和富兰克林非常相似，类似于一位18、19世纪百科全书式的人物。近代很多第一流的专家学者能够在自己狭小的研究领域内做到相对客观，但一旦离开自己的领域不远，就开始变得主观、教条、僵化，或者干脆就失去了自我学习的能力，所以大都免不了瞎子摸象的局限。查理的脑子就从来没有任何学科的条条框框。他的思想辐射到事业、人生、知识的每一个角落。在他看来，世间宇宙万物都是一个相互作用的整体，人类所有的知识都是对这一整体研究的部分尝试，只有把这些知识结合起来，并贯穿在一个思想框架中，才能对正确的认知和决策起到帮助作用。所以他提倡要学习在所有学科中真正重要的理论，并在此基础上形成所谓的“普世智慧”，以此为利器去研究商业投资领域的重要问题。查理在本书中详细地阐述了如何才能获得这样的“普世智慧”。对知识诚实，界定自己的能力圈查理这种思维方式是基于对知识的诚实。他认为，这个世界复杂多变，人类的认知永远存在着限制，所以你必须使用所有的工具，同时要注重收集各种新的可以证否的证据，并随时修正，即所谓“知之为知之，不知为不知”。事实上，所有的人都存在思想上的盲点。我们对于自己的专业、旁人或是某一件事情或许能够做到客观，但是对于天下万事万物都秉持客观的态度却是很难的，甚至可以说是有违人之本性的。但是查理却可以做到凡事客观。在这本书里，查理也讲到了通过后天的训练是可以培养客观精神的。而这种思维方式的养成将使你看到别人看不到的东西，预测到别人预测不到的未来，从而过上更幸福、自由和成功的生活。但即使这样，一个人在一生中真正可以得到的远见卓识仍然非常有限，所以正确的决策必须局限在自己的“能力圈”以内。一种不能够界定其边界的能力当然不能称为真正的能力。怎么才能界定自己的能力圈呢？查理说，如果我要拥有一种观点，如果我不能够比全世界最聪明、最有能力、最有资格反驳这个观点的人更能够证否自己，我就不配拥有这个观点。所以当查理真正地持有某个观点时，他的想法既原创、独特，又几乎从不犯错。用理性看穿事物的本质一次，查理邻座一位漂亮的女士坚持让查理用一个词来总结他的成功，查理说是“理性”。然而，查理讲的“理性”却不是我们一般人理解的理性。查理对理性有更苛刻的定义。正是这样的“理性”，让查理具有敏锐独到的眼光和洞察力，既使对于完全陌生的领域，他也能一眼看穿事物的本质。巴菲特把查理的这个特点称作“两分钟效应”——他说查理比世界上任何人更能在最短时间之内把一个复杂商业的本质说清楚。伯克希尔投资比亚迪的经过就是一个例证。记得2003年我第一次同查理谈到比亚迪时，他虽然从没有见过王传福本人，也从未参观过比亚迪的工厂，甚至对中国的市场和文化也相对陌生，可是他当时对比亚迪提出的问题和评论，今天看来仍然是投资比亚迪最实质的问题。人人都有盲点，再优秀的人也不例外。巴菲特说：“本杰明·格林厄姆曾经教我只买便宜的股票，查理让我改变了这种想法。这是查理对我真正的影响。要让我从格林厄姆的局限理论中走出来，需要一股强大的力量。查理的思想就是那股力量，他扩大了我的视野。”对此，我自己也有深切的体会。至少在两个重大问题上，查理帮我指出了我思维上的盲点，如果不是他的帮助，我现在还在从猿到人的进化过程中慢慢爬行。巴菲特50年来在不同的场合反复强调，查理对他本人和伯克希尔的影响完全无人可以取代。查理一辈子研究人类灾难性的错误，对于由于人类心理倾向引起的灾难性错误尤其情有独钟。最具贡献的是他预测到，金融衍生产品的泛滥和会计审计制度的漏洞即将给人类带来灾难。早在1990年代末期，他和巴菲特先生已经提出了金融衍生产品可能造成灾难性的影响，随着金融衍生产品的泛滥愈演愈烈，他们的警告也不断升级，甚至指出金融衍生产品是金融式的大规模杀伤武器，如果不能得到及时有效的制止，将会给现代文明社会带来灾难性的影响。2008年和2009年的金融海啸及全球经济大萧条不幸验证了查理的远见。从另一方面讲，他对这些问题的研究也为防范类似灾难的出现提供了宝贵的经验和知识，特别值得政府、金融界、企业界和学术界重视。解决实际问题，注重细节与巴菲特相比，查理的兴趣更为广泛。比如他对科学和软科学几乎所有的领域都有强烈的兴趣和广泛的研究，通过融会贯通，形成了原创性的、独特的芒格思想体系。相对于任何来自象牙塔内的思想体系，芒格主义完全为解决实际问题而生。比如说，据我所知，查理最早提出并系统研究人类心理倾向在投资和商业决策中的巨大影响。十几年后的今天，行为金融学已经成为经济学中最热门的研究领域，行为经济学也获得了诺贝尔经济学奖的认可。而查理在本书最后一讲“人类误判心理学”中所展现出的理论框架，在未来也很可能得到人们更广泛的理解和应用。查理的兴趣不仅限于思考，凡事也喜欢亲历亲为，并注重细节。他有一艘世界上最大的私人双体游艇，而这艘游艇就是他自己设计的。他还是个出色的建筑师。他按自己的喜好建造房子，从最初的图纸设计到之后的每一个细节，他都全程参与。比如他捐助的所有建筑物都是他自己亲自设计的，这包括了斯坦福大学研究生院宿舍楼、哈佛—西湖学校科学馆以及亨廷顿图书馆与园林的稀有图书研究馆。查理天生精力充沛。我认识查理是在1996年，那时他72岁。到今年查理86岁，已经过了十几年了。在这十几年里，查理的精力完全没有变化。他永远是精力旺盛，很早起身。早餐会议永远是七点半开始。同时由于某些晚宴应酬的缘故，他的睡眠时间可能要比常人少，但这些都不妨碍他旺盛的精力。而且，他记忆力惊人，我很多年前跟他讲的比亚迪的营运数字，我都已经记忆模糊了，他还记得。86岁的他记性比我这个年轻人还好。这些都是他天生的优势，但使他异常成功的特质却都是他后天努力获得的。成功时机重要，人的内在品质更重要查理对我而言，不仅是合伙人，是长辈，是老师，是朋友，是事业成功的典范，也是人生的楷模。我从他的身上不仅学到了价值投资的道理，也学到了很多做人的道理。他让我明白，一个人的成功并不是偶然的，时机固然重要，但人的内在品质更重要。查理喜欢与人早餐约会，时间通常是七点半。记得第一次与查理吃早餐时，我准时赶到，发现查理已经坐在那里把当天的报纸都看完了。虽然离七点半还差几分钟，但让一位德高望重的老人等我让我心里很不好受。第二次约会时，我大约提前了一刻钟到达，发现查理还是已经坐在那里看报纸了。到第三次约会，我提前半小时到达，结果查理还是在那里看报纸，仿佛他从未离开过那个座位，终年守候。直到第四次，我狠狠心提前一个钟头到达，六点半坐那里等候，到六点四十五的时候，查理悠悠地走进来了，手里拿着一摞报纸，头也不抬地坐下，完全没有注意到我的存在。以后我逐渐了解到，查理与人约会一定早到。到了以后也不浪费时间，会拿出准备好的报纸翻阅。自从知道查理的这个习惯后，以后我俩再约会，我都会提前到场，也拿一份报纸看，互不打扰，等七点半之后在一起吃早餐聊天。偶然查理也会迟到。有一次我带一位来自中国的青年创业者去见查理。查理因为从一个午餐会上赶来而迟到了半个小时。一到之后，查理先向我们两个年轻人郑重道歉，并详细解释他迟到的原因，甚至提出午餐会的代客泊车（Valet park）应如何改进才不会耽误客人45分钟的等候时间。那位中国青年既惊讶又感动，因为在全世界恐怕找不到一位地位如查理一般的长者会因迟到而向小辈反复道歉。融入生活，近距离地接触普通人在跟查理的交往中，另有一件事对我影响很大。有一年查理和我共同参加了一个外地的聚会。活动结束后，我要赶回纽约，没想到却在机场的候机厅遇见查理。他庞大的身体在过安检检测器的时候，不知什么原因导致检测器不断鸣叫示警。而查理就一次又一次地折返接受安检，如此折腾半天，好不容易过了安检，他的飞机已经起飞了。可查理也不着急，他抽出随身携带的书坐下来阅读，静等下一班飞机。那天正好我的飞机也误点了，我就陪他一起等。我问查理：“你有自己的私人飞机，伯克希尔也有专机，你为什么要到商用客机机场去经受这么多的麻烦呢？”查理答：“第一，我一个人坐专机太浪费油了。第二，我觉得坐商用飞机更安全。”但查理想说的真正理由是第三条：“我一辈子想要的就是融入生活（engage life），我不希望自己被孤立（isolated）。”查理最受不了的就是因为拥有了钱财而失去与世界的联系，把自己隔绝在一个单间，隔绝在占地一层的巨型办公室里，见面要层层通报，过五关斩六将，谁都不能轻易接触到。这样就与现实生活脱节了。“手里只要有一本书，我就不会觉得浪费时间。”查理任何时候都随身携带一本书，即使坐在经济舱的中间座位上，他只要拿着书，就安之若素。有一次他去西雅图参加一个董事会，依旧按惯例坐经济舱，他身边坐着一位中国小女孩，飞行途中一直在做微积分的功课。他对这个中国小女孩印象深刻，因为他很难想像同龄的美国女孩能有这样的定力，在飞机的嘈杂声中专心学习。如果他乘坐私人飞机，他就永远不会有机会近距离接触这些普通人的故事。严于律己，宽厚待人查理虽然严于律己，却非常宽厚地对待他真正关心和爱的人，他不吝金钱，总希望他人能多受益。他一个人的旅行，无论公务私务都搭乘经济舱，但与太太和家人一起旅行时，查理便会乘搭自己的私人飞机。他解释说：太太一辈子为我抚育这么多孩子，付出甚多，身体又不好，我一定要照顾好她。查理虽不是斯坦福大学毕业的，但因他太太是斯坦福校友，又是大学董事会成员，查理便向斯坦福大学捐款6000多万美金。查理一旦确定了做一件事情，他可以做一辈子。比如说他在哈佛—西湖学校及洛杉矶一间慈善医院的董事会任职长达40年之久。对于他所参与的慈善机构而言，查理是非常慷慨的赞助人。而且查理投入的不只是钱，他还投入了大量的时间和精力，以确保这些机构的成功运行。查理一生研究人类失败的原因，所以对人性的弱点有着深刻的理解。基于此，他认为人对自己要严格要求，这种生活方式对查理而言是一种道德要求。在外人看来，查理可能像个苦行僧，但在查理看来，这个过程却是既理性又愉快的，能够让人过上成功、幸福的人生。查理就是这么独特。但是想想看，如果芒格和巴菲特不是如此独特的话，他们也不可能一起在50年间为伯克希尔创造出在人类投资史上前无古人、后无来者的业绩。近20年来，全世界范围内对巴菲特、芒格研究的兴趣愈发地强烈，将来可能还会愈演愈烈，中英文的书籍汗牛充栋，其中也不乏独到的见解。说实话，由我目前的能力来评价芒格的思想其实为时尚早，因为直到今天，我每次和查理谈话，每次重读他的演讲，都会有新的收获。这另一方面也说明，我对他的思想理解还是不够。但这些年来查理对我的言传身教，使我有幸对查理的思想和人格有更直观的了解，我这里只想跟读者分享我自己近距离的观察和亲身体会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2076,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}