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  ·2020-10-27
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  Why have Hong Kong stocks begun to outperform A-shares recently?
  港股以银行股为代表的价值板块前期估值更为低估，短期向上修复空间更大。此外，国内经济从Q2开始修复，但传导至港股存在时滞。最后，港股流动性环境并未出现紧缩，A股市场流动性较港股未表现出明显优势。报告摘要
  Why have Hong Kong stocks begun to outperform A-shares recently?
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In addition, the domestic economy began to recover in Q2, but there was a time lag in the transmission to Hong Kong stocks. Finally, the liquidity environment for Hong Kong stocks has not tightened, and the liquidity of the A-share market has not shown a significant advantage over that of Hong Kong stocks. Report Summary</p><p>Hong Kong stocks have significantly underperformed A-shares this year, but have outperformed them slightly since October. The recent outperformance of Hong Kong stocks in A-shares can be explained from the perspectives of the market's micro-structure, as well as macro-level fundamentals and policies.</p><p><b>Influencing factor 1 - microstructure:</b>Recently, funds in both the A-share and H-share markets have begun to increase their allocation to undervalued value sectors. Compared to A-shares, value sectors in Hong Kong stocks, represented by bank stocks, were previously undervalued and have greater room for short-term upward recovery. On the other hand, in the past two weeks, A-share stocks heavily held by institutions have frequently experienced \"flash crashes,\" suppressing market sentiment. Hong Kong stocks heavily held by institutional investors have not seen a \"long sell-off\" recently, and the top 20 actively managed equity-oriented Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen funds have performed steadily in Hong Kong stocks since October.</p><p><b>Influencing Factor Two – Macroeconomic Fundamentals</b>Looking at the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks, they are \"onshore.\" The domestic economy began to recover in Q2, but there is a time lag in the transmission to Hong Kong stocks. On the positive side, starting in late September, the Hang Seng Index unanimously expected EPS to begin to stabilize and rebound. Based on historical experience, profit growth is a necessary condition for the continued strength of Hong Kong stocks, and historically, during periods of upward profitability for A-shares and H-shares, Hong Kong stocks have often outperformed A-shares.</p><p><b>Influencing factor three – macro liquidity:</b>Hong Kong stock liquidity is viewed as \"offshore,\" and although many overseas risk events remain unresolved, they still suppress foreign investors' risk appetite. However, the high attractiveness of Chinese assets coupled with lower capital costs means that foreign capital still has the incentive to buy, and the liquidity environment for Hong Kong stocks has not tightened. In mainland China, the continuation of the \"stabilizing monetary policy\" has meant that the liquidity of the A-share market has not shown a significant advantage over that of Hong Kong stocks, which is also an important reason for the recent stabilization of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares.</p><p><b>Investment Strategy: Hong Kong stocks continue to be in a golden period for investment.</b>As the US presidential election enters its final sprint, short-term foreign investor risk appetite may be suppressed. However, in an environment of \"weak US dollar and strong RMB\", coupled with the confirmed trend of weak recovery in the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks, the deepening of the theme of high AH premium and changes in the market ecosystem, Hong Kong stocks are in a golden period of investment.</p><p>Industry allocation focus: (1) Economic recovery coupled with the advantages of low valuation and high Dividend in the sector, allocate to Hong Kong-listed banking and infrastructure industry chains; (2) Domestic offline consumption scenarios are opening up, consumption data continues to recover, and attention should be paid to automobiles, catering, hotels and other discretionary consumption sectors; (3) Internet software, which will benefit from the return of Chinese concept stocks, remains a key direction.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global stock markets performed mixed last week, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising by 2.18% and 2.12% respectively. In terms of sectors, the Hang Seng Level 1 sector showed mixed performance, with the energy sector leading the gains and the healthcare sector experiencing the largest decline.</p><p>Domestically, China's GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, slightly lower than market expectations. Looking at the data for September alone, the six major indicators (industry, services, consumption, exports, investment, and real estate) continued to rebound except for real estate sales growth, which was lower than the previous month. Highlights of the sub-items include industrial added value, clothing and automobile consumption, etc.</p><p>Overseas, negotiations between the two parties on fiscal stimulus policies in the United States continue, and there are still some differences between the two sides. However, even if an agreement is reached, Congress may vote on it after the general election. In Europe, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI recorded 54.4 in October, higher than the previous value and market expectations, but at the same time, the services PMI fell to 46.2 in October, lower than market expectations. Amid a second outbreak of the pandemic, the prospects for Europe's economic recovery remain uncertain.</p><p>Since late September, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong has achieved positive returns for four consecutive weeks, while the A-share market has fluctuated during the same period. After continuously underperforming A-shares since the beginning of the year,<b>Why have Hong Kong stocks stopped underperforming A-shares recently, and what factors are influencing this? In this issue's strategy commentary, we will analyze the market upward structure at the micro level, as well as the fundamentals and liquidity at the macro level.</b>This article summarizes the reasons why Hong Kong stocks have recently outperformed A-shares.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks have significantly underperformed A-shares this year, but starting in late September, Hong Kong stocks stabilized relative to A-shares, and have outperformed slightly since October.</b>Using the Hang Seng Index/CSI 300 Index as an indicator to measure the relative trend of the A-share market, Hong Kong stocks have consistently underperformed A-shares since the beginning of 2019. Specifically, Hong Kong stocks significantly underperformed A-shares during four periods: early 2019 (A-shares experienced a \"spring rally\" in early 2019, with Hong Kong stocks rising less than A-shares), July-August 2019 (Sino-US trade friction and RMB depreciation \"breaking 7%,\" leading to a significant outflow of foreign capital, with Hong Kong stocks falling more than A-shares), February-March 2020 (overseas market liquidity crash, US stocks plummeting, and foreign capital flowing out of Hong Kong stocks), and June-July 2020 (US pullback/retracement dragged down Hong Kong stocks, with A-shares rising rapidly in early July and Hong Kong stocks rising even less).</p><p>However, starting in September, the relative trend of AH trading stabilized; Since October, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong has risen 6.22%, and the CSI 300 Index in A-shares has risen 2.86%, with Hong Kong stocks beginning to outperform A-shares. From the perspectives of the market's micro-structure, as well as macro-level fundamentals and policies, what factors have catalyzed the recent outperformance of Hong Kong stocks in A-shares?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e58f143327771990fefab9c53903268\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"292\"></p><p><b>Influencing factor 1: The AH market style has shifted towards \"undervaluation recovery\", and undervalued sectors in Hong Kong stocks have greater room for upward recovery; On the other hand, A-share stocks heavily held by institutions suffered a \"bullish sell-off,\" suppressing market sentiment, while Hong Kong stocks heavily held by institutions performed relatively stably.</b></p><p>Since October, funds in both the A-share and H-share markets have begun to increase their allocation to undervalued value sectors simultaneously. Correspondingly, in terms of industry performance, bank stocks have become the leading theme in both markets. However, compared to A-shares, value sectors in Hong Kong stocks, represented by bank stocks, were undervalued in the early stages. We refer to the AH premium index. Since most listed companies in both A and H markets are value stocks, the AH premium rate can serve as a good proxy indicator for measuring the valuation difference between value stocks in the two markets. Since September, the A/H premium has remained above 140, and once exceeded the highest level during the 2015 A-share \"buffalo\" period, making the Hong Kong value sector even more undervalued. Therefore, in the recent valuation recovery of undervalued sectors, undervalued value sectors represented by banks in Hong Kong stocks have greater upward elasticity.</p><p>Another factor contributing to the recent weak risk appetite in the A-share market is that a large number of stocks heavily held by institutions have experienced a sell-off. In the past two weeks, institutional holdings in several A-share sectors, including food and beverage, biopharmaceuticals, and media, have experienced a \"flash crash\" due to factors such as institutions realizing profits or company performance falling short of expectations that cannot support high valuations. The flash crash of stocks heavily held by institutions has suppressed overall market sentiment. In terms of trading volume, the average daily trading volume of A-shares in the past week was only 40% of the highest daily trading volume of the year in early July.</p><p>However, the performance of stocks heavily held by Hong Kong institutions remained relatively We have compiled the top Hong Kong stocks held by actively managed equity funds in the second quarter of 2020, and compiled statistics on their performance since October. Since October, institutional holdings in Hong Kong stocks have not fallen significantly. Among the top 20 holdings, 13 stocks have achieved positive returns. Among the 7 stocks that experienced a pullback/retracement, except for Yihai International (01579.HK), the other companies all fell by less than 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bf054a39a5781fee3b08464b6b3270\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"422\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cad6c2d7783b104276e952efdb23e38\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"259\"></p><p><b>Influencing factor 2: The Hang Seng Index consensus expects EPS to begin to rise, and although the reversal in the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks has been delayed, it has not been absent; Historically, during periods of upward profitability for A-shares and H-shares, Hong Kong stocks have often outperformed A-shares.</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks are dominated by foreign institutional investors, and their investment framework places a high degree of emphasis on fundamentals. Therefore, profit growth is a necessary condition for the continued strength of Hong Kong stocks. According to 2019 data, the net profit of Chinese stocks in Hong Kong accounted for more than 80% of the net profit of all Hong Kong stocks. The fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks are highly correlated with the mainland economy and have a clear \"onshore character\".</p><p>Following the pandemic, major domestic economic data began to recover in Q2, but Hong Kong stock EPS did not rise during the same period. Since the Hong Kong Stock Exchange did not mandate the disclosure of quarterly reports by Hong Kong-listed companies, the market's downward revisions to the earnings of some companies were concentrated during the interim report season in July and August, leading to a consensus expectation for the Hang Seng Index's EPS to continue to decline in July and August.</p><p>However, starting in late September, the Hang Seng Index unanimously expected EPS to begin to rebound. We believe that the upward trend in the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks will continue until the turning point in domestic economic growth occurs. Historically, during periods of upward profitability for A-shares and H-shares, Hong Kong stocks have often outperformed A-shares (reference report \"Why Do Hong Kong Stocks No Longer Underperform A-shares? - Hong Kong Stock Policy Commentary, October Issue 4\", 2019-10-27).</p><p><b>Influencing factor 3: Although overseas risk events still suppress foreign investors' risk appetite, the liquidity environment for Hong Kong stocks has not tightened at present.</b></p><p>Funds can flow in and out of Hong Kong freely, and the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is more affected by \"offshore\" factors. Undeniably, foreign investors' risk appetite was still suppressed before risk events such as the US presidential election and Brexit occurred. However, at the same time, with the RMB exchange rate continuing to appreciate and US Treasury yields fluctuating at low levels, from the perspective of foreign investors, the high attractiveness of Chinese assets coupled with lower capital costs still gives foreign investors the incentive to buy H and H assets. Furthermore, judging from indicators such as the recent low fluctuations in the Hibor interest rate and the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate continuing to touch the strong side guarantee of 7.75, liquidity in the Hong Kong market has not tightened.</p><p>In mainland China, the government has continuously released signals of \"stabilizing the monetary policy\" in recent months. When discussing monetary policy at the opening ceremony of the 2020 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, Vice Premier Liu He reiterated the need to maintain policy stability. As another important factor determining the relative trend of A-shares and H-shares (reference report \"Is 'A Strong, H Weak' a Trend or a Temporary Torment? - Hong Kong Stock Policy Commentary, February Issue 4\", 2020-02-23), the current liquidity of the A-share market has not shown a significant advantage over that of Hong Kong stocks, which is also an important reason for the recent stabilization of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01f8a6c46c0c25e95998e2628d458e8\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"552\"></p>","source":"lsy1582517971643","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why have Hong Kong stocks begun to outperform A-shares recently?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy have Hong Kong stocks begun to outperform A-shares recently?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">广发证券</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2020-10-26 09:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Value sectors in Hong Kong stocks, represented by bank stocks, were previously undervalued and have greater room for short-term upward recovery. In addition, the domestic economy began to recover in Q2, but there was a time lag in the transmission to Hong Kong stocks. Finally, the liquidity environment for Hong Kong stocks has not tightened, and the liquidity of the A-share market has not shown a significant advantage over that of Hong Kong stocks. Report Summary</p><p>Hong Kong stocks have significantly underperformed A-shares this year, but have outperformed them slightly since October. The recent outperformance of Hong Kong stocks in A-shares can be explained from the perspectives of the market's micro-structure, as well as macro-level fundamentals and policies.</p><p><b>Influencing factor 1 - microstructure:</b>Recently, funds in both the A-share and H-share markets have begun to increase their allocation to undervalued value sectors. Compared to A-shares, value sectors in Hong Kong stocks, represented by bank stocks, were previously undervalued and have greater room for short-term upward recovery. On the other hand, in the past two weeks, A-share stocks heavily held by institutions have frequently experienced \"flash crashes,\" suppressing market sentiment. Hong Kong stocks heavily held by institutional investors have not seen a \"long sell-off\" recently, and the top 20 actively managed equity-oriented Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen funds have performed steadily in Hong Kong stocks since October.</p><p><b>Influencing Factor Two – Macroeconomic Fundamentals</b>Looking at the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks, they are \"onshore.\" The domestic economy began to recover in Q2, but there is a time lag in the transmission to Hong Kong stocks. On the positive side, starting in late September, the Hang Seng Index unanimously expected EPS to begin to stabilize and rebound. Based on historical experience, profit growth is a necessary condition for the continued strength of Hong Kong stocks, and historically, during periods of upward profitability for A-shares and H-shares, Hong Kong stocks have often outperformed A-shares.</p><p><b>Influencing factor three – macro liquidity:</b>Hong Kong stock liquidity is viewed as \"offshore,\" and although many overseas risk events remain unresolved, they still suppress foreign investors' risk appetite. However, the high attractiveness of Chinese assets coupled with lower capital costs means that foreign capital still has the incentive to buy, and the liquidity environment for Hong Kong stocks has not tightened. In mainland China, the continuation of the \"stabilizing monetary policy\" has meant that the liquidity of the A-share market has not shown a significant advantage over that of Hong Kong stocks, which is also an important reason for the recent stabilization of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares.</p><p><b>Investment Strategy: Hong Kong stocks continue to be in a golden period for investment.</b>As the US presidential election enters its final sprint, short-term foreign investor risk appetite may be suppressed. However, in an environment of \"weak US dollar and strong RMB\", coupled with the confirmed trend of weak recovery in the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks, the deepening of the theme of high AH premium and changes in the market ecosystem, Hong Kong stocks are in a golden period of investment.</p><p>Industry allocation focus: (1) Economic recovery coupled with the advantages of low valuation and high Dividend in the sector, allocate to Hong Kong-listed banking and infrastructure industry chains; (2) Domestic offline consumption scenarios are opening up, consumption data continues to recover, and attention should be paid to automobiles, catering, hotels and other discretionary consumption sectors; (3) Internet software, which will benefit from the return of Chinese concept stocks, remains a key direction.</p><p><b>text</b></p><p>Global stock markets performed mixed last week, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rising by 2.18% and 2.12% respectively. In terms of sectors, the Hang Seng Level 1 sector showed mixed performance, with the energy sector leading the gains and the healthcare sector experiencing the largest decline.</p><p>Domestically, China's GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, slightly lower than market expectations. Looking at the data for September alone, the six major indicators (industry, services, consumption, exports, investment, and real estate) continued to rebound except for real estate sales growth, which was lower than the previous month. Highlights of the sub-items include industrial added value, clothing and automobile consumption, etc.</p><p>Overseas, negotiations between the two parties on fiscal stimulus policies in the United States continue, and there are still some differences between the two sides. However, even if an agreement is reached, Congress may vote on it after the general election. In Europe, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI recorded 54.4 in October, higher than the previous value and market expectations, but at the same time, the services PMI fell to 46.2 in October, lower than market expectations. Amid a second outbreak of the pandemic, the prospects for Europe's economic recovery remain uncertain.</p><p>Since late September, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong has achieved positive returns for four consecutive weeks, while the A-share market has fluctuated during the same period. After continuously underperforming A-shares since the beginning of the year,<b>Why have Hong Kong stocks stopped underperforming A-shares recently, and what factors are influencing this? In this issue's strategy commentary, we will analyze the market upward structure at the micro level, as well as the fundamentals and liquidity at the macro level.</b>This article summarizes the reasons why Hong Kong stocks have recently outperformed A-shares.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks have significantly underperformed A-shares this year, but starting in late September, Hong Kong stocks stabilized relative to A-shares, and have outperformed slightly since October.</b>Using the Hang Seng Index/CSI 300 Index as an indicator to measure the relative trend of the A-share market, Hong Kong stocks have consistently underperformed A-shares since the beginning of 2019. Specifically, Hong Kong stocks significantly underperformed A-shares during four periods: early 2019 (A-shares experienced a \"spring rally\" in early 2019, with Hong Kong stocks rising less than A-shares), July-August 2019 (Sino-US trade friction and RMB depreciation \"breaking 7%,\" leading to a significant outflow of foreign capital, with Hong Kong stocks falling more than A-shares), February-March 2020 (overseas market liquidity crash, US stocks plummeting, and foreign capital flowing out of Hong Kong stocks), and June-July 2020 (US pullback/retracement dragged down Hong Kong stocks, with A-shares rising rapidly in early July and Hong Kong stocks rising even less).</p><p>However, starting in September, the relative trend of AH trading stabilized; Since October, the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong has risen 6.22%, and the CSI 300 Index in A-shares has risen 2.86%, with Hong Kong stocks beginning to outperform A-shares. From the perspectives of the market's micro-structure, as well as macro-level fundamentals and policies, what factors have catalyzed the recent outperformance of Hong Kong stocks in A-shares?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e58f143327771990fefab9c53903268\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"292\"></p><p><b>Influencing factor 1: The AH market style has shifted towards \"undervaluation recovery\", and undervalued sectors in Hong Kong stocks have greater room for upward recovery; On the other hand, A-share stocks heavily held by institutions suffered a \"bullish sell-off,\" suppressing market sentiment, while Hong Kong stocks heavily held by institutions performed relatively stably.</b></p><p>Since October, funds in both the A-share and H-share markets have begun to increase their allocation to undervalued value sectors simultaneously. Correspondingly, in terms of industry performance, bank stocks have become the leading theme in both markets. However, compared to A-shares, value sectors in Hong Kong stocks, represented by bank stocks, were undervalued in the early stages. We refer to the AH premium index. Since most listed companies in both A and H markets are value stocks, the AH premium rate can serve as a good proxy indicator for measuring the valuation difference between value stocks in the two markets. Since September, the A/H premium has remained above 140, and once exceeded the highest level during the 2015 A-share \"buffalo\" period, making the Hong Kong value sector even more undervalued. Therefore, in the recent valuation recovery of undervalued sectors, undervalued value sectors represented by banks in Hong Kong stocks have greater upward elasticity.</p><p>Another factor contributing to the recent weak risk appetite in the A-share market is that a large number of stocks heavily held by institutions have experienced a sell-off. In the past two weeks, institutional holdings in several A-share sectors, including food and beverage, biopharmaceuticals, and media, have experienced a \"flash crash\" due to factors such as institutions realizing profits or company performance falling short of expectations that cannot support high valuations. The flash crash of stocks heavily held by institutions has suppressed overall market sentiment. In terms of trading volume, the average daily trading volume of A-shares in the past week was only 40% of the highest daily trading volume of the year in early July.</p><p>However, the performance of stocks heavily held by Hong Kong institutions remained relatively We have compiled the top Hong Kong stocks held by actively managed equity funds in the second quarter of 2020, and compiled statistics on their performance since October. Since October, institutional holdings in Hong Kong stocks have not fallen significantly. Among the top 20 holdings, 13 stocks have achieved positive returns. Among the 7 stocks that experienced a pullback/retracement, except for Yihai International (01579.HK), the other companies all fell by less than 7%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bf054a39a5781fee3b08464b6b3270\" tg-width=\"721\" tg-height=\"422\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cad6c2d7783b104276e952efdb23e38\" tg-width=\"712\" tg-height=\"259\"></p><p><b>Influencing factor 2: The Hang Seng Index consensus expects EPS to begin to rise, and although the reversal in the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks has been delayed, it has not been absent; Historically, during periods of upward profitability for A-shares and H-shares, Hong Kong stocks have often outperformed A-shares.</b></p><p>Hong Kong stocks are dominated by foreign institutional investors, and their investment framework places a high degree of emphasis on fundamentals. Therefore, profit growth is a necessary condition for the continued strength of Hong Kong stocks. According to 2019 data, the net profit of Chinese stocks in Hong Kong accounted for more than 80% of the net profit of all Hong Kong stocks. The fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks are highly correlated with the mainland economy and have a clear \"onshore character\".</p><p>Following the pandemic, major domestic economic data began to recover in Q2, but Hong Kong stock EPS did not rise during the same period. Since the Hong Kong Stock Exchange did not mandate the disclosure of quarterly reports by Hong Kong-listed companies, the market's downward revisions to the earnings of some companies were concentrated during the interim report season in July and August, leading to a consensus expectation for the Hang Seng Index's EPS to continue to decline in July and August.</p><p>However, starting in late September, the Hang Seng Index unanimously expected EPS to begin to rebound. We believe that the upward trend in the fundamentals of Hong Kong stocks will continue until the turning point in domestic economic growth occurs. Historically, during periods of upward profitability for A-shares and H-shares, Hong Kong stocks have often outperformed A-shares (reference report \"Why Do Hong Kong Stocks No Longer Underperform A-shares? - Hong Kong Stock Policy Commentary, October Issue 4\", 2019-10-27).</p><p><b>Influencing factor 3: Although overseas risk events still suppress foreign investors' risk appetite, the liquidity environment for Hong Kong stocks has not tightened at present.</b></p><p>Funds can flow in and out of Hong Kong freely, and the liquidity of Hong Kong stocks is more affected by \"offshore\" factors. Undeniably, foreign investors' risk appetite was still suppressed before risk events such as the US presidential election and Brexit occurred. However, at the same time, with the RMB exchange rate continuing to appreciate and US Treasury yields fluctuating at low levels, from the perspective of foreign investors, the high attractiveness of Chinese assets coupled with lower capital costs still gives foreign investors the incentive to buy H and H assets. Furthermore, judging from indicators such as the recent low fluctuations in the Hibor interest rate and the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate continuing to touch the strong side guarantee of 7.75, liquidity in the Hong Kong market has not tightened.</p><p>In mainland China, the government has continuously released signals of \"stabilizing the monetary policy\" in recent months. When discussing monetary policy at the opening ceremony of the 2020 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting, Vice Premier Liu He reiterated the need to maintain policy stability. As another important factor determining the relative trend of A-shares and H-shares (reference report \"Is 'A Strong, H Weak' a Trend or a Temporary Torment? - Hong Kong Stock Policy Commentary, February Issue 4\", 2020-02-23), the current liquidity of the A-share market has not shown a significant advantage over that of Hong Kong stocks, which is also an important reason for the recent stabilization of Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f01f8a6c46c0c25e95998e2628d458e8\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"552\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3608332\">广发证券</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCEI":"国企指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3608332","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146350433","content_text":"港股以银行股为代表的价值板块前期估值更为低估，短期向上修复空间更大。此外，国内经济从Q2开始修复，但传导至港股存在时滞。最后，港股流动性环境并未出现紧缩，A股市场流动性较港股未表现出明显优势。报告摘要\n年内港股大幅跑输A股，但10月以来小幅跑赢。近期港股跑赢A股可从市场微观结构，以及宏观维度的基本面与政策角度进行解释。\n影响因素一—微观结构：近期AH两市资金开始同步增配低估值价值板块，相较于A股，港股以银行股为代表的价值板块前期估值更为低估，短期向上修复空间更大。另一方面，近两周A股机构重仓股频频出现“闪崩”，压制市场情绪。港股机构重仓股近期未出现“多杀多”， 主动偏股型沪港深基金前20大重仓港股10月以来表现稳健。\n影响因素二—宏观基本面：港股基本面看“在岸”，国内经济从Q2开始修复，但传导至港股存在时滞。好的一点在于，从9月下旬开始，恒指一致预期EPS开始企稳反弹。参考历史经验，盈利增长是港股持续走强的必要条件，且历史上AH盈利向上期间，港股多跑赢A股。\n影响因素三—宏观流动性：港股流动性看“离岸”，尽管较多海外风险事件悬而未定仍对外资风险偏好形成压制。但中国资产较高的吸引力叠加较低的资金成本，外资目前仍有买入动力，港股流动性环境并未出现紧缩。在中国内地，“稳货币”政策延续，A股市场流动性较港股未表现出明显优势，也是近期港股相较于A股走势企稳的重要原因。\n投资策略：港股继续处于黄金布局期。美国大选进入冲刺阶段，短期外资风险偏好或受压制。但在“弱美元、强人民币”环境下，叠加港股基本面弱复苏趋势确定，高AH溢价与市场生态变迁主题深化，港股正处于黄金布局期。\n行业配置关注：（1）经济复苏叠加板块低估值、高股息优势，配置港股银行、基建产业链；（2）国内线下消费场景打开，消费数据持续回暖，关注可选消费板块中的汽车、餐饮、酒店等；（3）中概股回归受益的互联网软件仍是重点方向。\n正文\n上周全球股市表现分化，港股恒生指数、恒生国企指数分别上涨2.18%、2.12%。 板块方面，恒生一级行业涨跌互现，能源业领涨，医疗保健业跌幅最大。\n国内方面，中国三季度GDP同比增长4.9%，略低于市场预期，从9月单月数据看，9月六大口径数据（工业、服务业、消费、出口、投资、房地产）除房地产销售增速低于上月外，其余数据继续回升。分项亮点数据包括工业增加值、服装与汽车消费等。\n海外方面，美国两党就财政刺激政策的谈判仍在继续，目前双方仍存在一定分歧，但即使达成协议，国会也或在大选之后再进行表决。欧洲方面，欧元区10月制造业PMI录得54.4，高于前值与市场预期，但与此同时10月服务业PMI回落至46.2，低于市场预期。在疫情二次暴发环境下，欧洲经济复苏前景依然不明朗。\n9月下旬以来，港股恒生指数已连续4周取得正收益，同期A股市场则走势震荡。在年初以来持续跑输A股后，为何近期港股相对A股不再跑输，背后有哪些影响因素？本期策论我们分别从微观层面的市场上涨结构、以及宏观层面的基本面、流动性等角度入手进行分析，对近期港股跑赢A股的原因进行总结。\n年内港股大幅跑输A股，但9月下旬开始港股相对A股走势企稳，10月以来小幅跑赢。以恒生指数/沪深300指数作为衡量AH市场相对走势的指标，从2019年初开始，港股持续跑输A股，其中在19年初（19年初A股“春季躁动”，港股涨幅弱于A股）、19年7-8月（中美贸易摩擦、人民币贬值“破7”，外资大幅流出，港股跌幅大于A 股）、20年2-3月（海外市场流动性踩踏，美股暴跌，外资大幅流出港股）、20年6-7 月（美国回撤拖累港股，7月初A股快涨，港股涨幅更小）这四个时间段内，港股大幅跑输A股。\n但从9月开始，AH相对走势出现企稳；10月以来，港股恒生指数上涨6.22%，A 股沪深300指数上涨2.86%，港股开始跑赢A股。从市场微观结构，以及宏观维度的基本面与政策角度分析，有哪些因素催化了近期港股跑赢A股的行情？\n\n影响因素一：AH市场风格转向“低估值修复”，港股低估值板块向上修复空间更大；另一方面，A股机构重仓股遭遇“多杀多”，压制市场情绪，而港股机构重仓股表现较为稳定。\n10月以来，AH两市资金开始同步增配低估值价值板块，对应到行业表现上，银行股成为两市领涨主线。但相较于A股，港股以银行股为代表的价值板块前期估值更为低估。我们参考AH溢价指数，由于A+H两地上市公司多为价值股，因此AH溢价率 可以作为衡量两市价值股估值差的较好代理指标。9月以来，AH溢价率持续高于140， 并一度超过2015年A股“水牛”期间最高位，港股价值板块更为低估。因此近期低 估值板块估值修复行情中，港股以银行为代表的低估值价值板块向上弹性更大。\n导致近期A股市场风险偏好较弱的另一因素是大量机构重仓股遭遇“多杀多”。 受机构兑现收益，或公司业绩不及预期无法支撑高估值等因素影响，近两周A股食品饮料、生物医药、传媒等多个行业的机构重仓股出现“闪崩”。机构重仓股“闪崩” 对整体市场情绪形成压制，从交易额看，近一周A股日均交易额仅为7月初年内日交易额最高点的40%。\n但港股机构重仓股表现较为稳定。我们汇总了主动偏股型沪港深基金20年二季报的重仓港股，并对其10月以来的表现进行统计。10月以来机构重仓港股并未大幅 下跌，前20大重仓股中，有13只取得正收益，而出现回撤的7只个股中，除颐海国际（01579.HK）外，其余公司跌幅均不到7%。\n\n影响因素二：恒指一致预期EPS开始上行，港股基本面的反转虽有延迟，但并未缺席；在历史上AH盈利向上期间，港股多跑赢A股。\n港股由外资机构投资者主导，其投资框架内对基本面的重视程度较高，因此盈 利增长是港股持续走强的必要条件。根据2019年数据，港股中资股净利润占全部港股净利润的超80%，港股基本面与内地经济高度相关，具有明显的“在岸性”。\n疫情后，国内主要经济数据从Q2开始修复，但同期港股EPS并未上行；由于港交所未强制要求港股公司披露季度报告，市场对于部分公司盈利的下修集中在7-8月中报季期间，导致7-8月恒指一致预期EPS继续下行。\n但从9月下旬开始，恒指一致预期EPS开始反弹，我们判断，在国内经济增长拐点出现之前，港股基本面向上的趋势将延续。而在历史上AH盈利向上期间，港股多跑赢A股（参考报告《为何港股不再跑输A股？——港股策论10月第4期》，2019-10-27）。\n影响因素三：尽管海外风险事件对外资风险偏好仍有压制，但目前港股流动性环境并未出现紧缩。\n资金可在香港自由流入流出，港股流动性更多受“离岸”因素影响。不可否认的是，在美国大选、英国脱欧等风险事件落地前，外资的风险偏好仍受到压制。但与此同时，目前人民币汇率持续升值，美债利率低位波动，站在外资的角度，中国资产较高的吸引力叠加较低的资金成本，外资目前仍有买入AH资产的动力。此外从近期Hibor利率低位波动与港元汇率不断触及强方保证7.75等指标看，香港市场流动性并未出现紧缩。\n在中国内地，近几个月政府持续释放“稳货币”信号，刘鹤副总理在2020金融街论坛年会开幕式上谈到货币政策时，再次强调要保持政策稳定。作为决定AH相对走势的另一重要因素（参考报告《“A强H弱”是趋势，还是一时煎熬？——港股策论2月第4期》，2020-02-23），目前A股市场流动性较港股未表现出明显优势，也是近期港股相较于A股走势企稳的重要原因。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}