To The Moon

$TSLA is trading above its highest volume node from 2024–2025. That matters. Most of the stock’s trading activity has built acceptance between $380 and $420. Price is now holding above that zone, which turns prior supply into structural support. When a stock clears its volume gravity well and holds, the path of least resistance is higher.

$TSLA is trading above its highest volume node from 2024–2025. That matters. Most of the stock’s trading activity has built acceptance between $380 and $420. Price is now holding above that zone, which turns prior supply into structural support. When a stock clears its volume gravity well and holds, the path of least resistance is higher.

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & CAPACITY UTILIZATION – DECEMBER 2025 🔸 Capacity Utilization: 76.3% (vs consensus 76.0%, November 76.1%) 🔸 Total Industrial Output: +0.4% m/m (vs consensus +0.1%, November +0.4%) 🔸 Manufacturing Output: +0.2% (vs consensus -0.2%), capacity use steady at 75.6% 🔸 Mining Output: -0.7% (after +1.7% in November) 🔸 Utilities Output: +2.6% (after -0.3% in November) 🔸 Excluding motor vehicles & parts: +0.5% (same as November) 🔸 Motor vehicle assembly rate: fell to 9.68 million units/year (from 9.72 million in November)

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION & CAPACITY UTILIZATION – DECEMBER 2025 🔸 Capacity Utilization: 76.3% (vs consensus 76.0%, November 76.1%) 🔸 Total Industrial Output: +0.4% m/m (vs consensus +0.1%, November +0.4%) 🔸 Manufacturing Output: +0.2% (vs consensus -0.2%), capacity use steady at 75.6% 🔸 Mining Output: -0.7% (after +1.7% in November) 🔸 Utilities Output: +2.6% (after -0.3% in November) 🔸 Excluding motor vehicles & parts: +0.5% (same as November) 🔸 Motor vehicle assembly rate: fell to 9.68 million units/year (from 9.72 million in November)

US corporate bond downgrades are surging at an alarming pace: $55 billion of corporate bonds were downgraded from investment-grade to junk status in 2025, the highest since 2020. At the same time, only $10 billion of upgrades to investment-grade were recorded, the lowest in at least 6 years. This means downgrade volumes were 5.5 times higher than upgrades, compared to 4.8 times in 2020. By comparison, in 2024, there were only $4 billion in downgrades and $22 billion in upgrades, meaning upgrades outpaced downgrades by 5.5 times. Meanwhile, $63 billion of bonds are now on the brink of junk status, up from $37 billion at the end of 2024. The credit quality of US corporate bonds is deteriorating.

The reality I see every day is that people hate buying support zones on bullish charts. They would rather attempt to buy falling knives like $BULL than bullish backtests like $COIN. The majority hated $TSLA in the 200s, $AMD sub $100, $IREN sub $10, $SOFI sub $8, etc. They all want to buy when charts have already broken out and chase higher because it feels more "comfortable." 

$TSLA cycle déjà vu? 🤯 The December 2025 high repeated 2024’s timing and price. If it topped, it’s bloody eerie. To me, the latest decline hasn’t invalidated the bull case for one more high just yet. Wave (v) target is around $540 before end-Feb. This means earnings could drive a new all-time high.

US JOBLESS CLAIMS -9K TO 198K IN JAN-10 WK; SURVEY 215K US JAN-3 WEEK CONTINUING CLAIMS -19K TO 1,884,000 US JAN-3 WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS REVISED TO 207K

US JOBLESS CLAIMS -9K TO 198K IN JAN-10 WK; SURVEY 215K US JAN-3 WEEK CONTINUING CLAIMS -19K TO 1,884,000 US JAN-3 WEEK JOBLESS CLAIMS REVISED TO 207K

$TSM CRUSHED THEIR EARNINGS • Sales $33.7B vs Est. $31.3B • EPS $3.14 vs Est. $2.79 • Gross margin 62% vs Est. 61% • Net income $16.3B vs Est. $15.2B • Advanced nodes (≤7nm) were 77% of wafer revenue Q1 Guidance • Sales $35.2B vs Est. $33.2B • Gross margin 64% vs. Est. 60% • Operating margin 55%