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Ckboon

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- CkboonCkboon
  ·2022-03-31
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- CkboonCkboon
  ·2022-02-23
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  The Investment Philosophy Behind "Must-Read Classics on Wall Street"
  导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写
  The Investment Philosophy Behind "Must-Read Classics on Wall Street"
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- CkboonCkboon
  ·2022-02-23
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  The Investment Philosophy Behind "Must-Read Classics on Wall Street"
  导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写
  The Investment Philosophy Behind "Must-Read Classics on Wall Street"
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- CkboonCkboon
  ·2022-01-19
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- CkboonCkboon
  ·2022-01-19
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- CkboonCkboon
  ·2022-01-16
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  Banks' battle for the future: $12 billion smashed into technology, JPMorgan Chase shocked the industry
  巨额科技投入部分反映摩根大通在与支付处理商Stripe、分期付款银行Affirm等金融科技公司竞争时面临的压力。随着交易收入增长放缓，公司投行营收增长正陷入瓶颈。为应对来自金融科技公司的激烈竞争，华尔
  Banks' battle for the future: $12 billion smashed into technology, JPMorgan Chase shocked the industry
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14:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Investment Philosophy Behind \"Must-Read Classics on Wall Street\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187542871","media":"期乐会","summary":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School of Business and co-founded the American<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Management company (Oaktree Capital), which today has $100 billion in assets under management. Howard Marks began writing \"investment memos\" for investors in the 1990s. In the investment memo in January 2000, he predicted the bursting of the technology stock bubble, and then became famous. The \"investment memo\" became a must-read document on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The first email I open and read is a memo from Howard Marks. I always learn from it. His books are even more so,\" Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he strongly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing in Investing\", and says he read it twice.</p><p>This article is an excellent talk by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"The Most Important Thing About Investing\" came about and where these influences came from.</p><p>I'm glad everyone is here to listen to me talk about my book, my investment philosophy, and how we manage money.</p><p>I want to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe they are necessary in investing. What I also want to talk to you today is how the investment philosophy behind this book comes into being and where these influences come from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made of uncertainty</b></p><p>We should realize that the world is a world full of uncertainty, so that we can understand how to deal with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to accurately predict what will happen in the future, think that you are right and use this as the basis for your action, you must be asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, it may end badly for you.</p><p>The humorous Mark Twain said, \"What gets you into trouble is not what you don't know, but what you think you know but are actually wrong.\" I think too much faith in the future can be the root of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world</b></p><p>It is a very dangerous thing to base investment on future predictions. My predictions don't have to be much better than others. After all, no one can make correct predictions about the future macro. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well in various macro situations to control risks. Only by knowing that we are ignorant can we accept many possibilities in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The development of the world as I understand is often controlled by random events</b></p><p>We can't say what the future will necessarily be, the future is made up of random events that can happen. Even if you know the distribution of random events and the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when these events will happen. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave a safe space to deal with uncertainty</b></p><p>It can be said that in my career, I have been successful because I study what may happen in the future, but I don't think it will happen, leave room for uncertainty, leave room for variables, and prepare myself for life in an uncertain world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is exactly what most people think won't happen</b></p><p>What is a risk? A very good interpretation is: \"Risk means that something unexpected always happens\" (pointed out by Eloy Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics).</p><p>If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; If most investors believe that something won't happen in the future, then that event is where the risk lies.</p><p>But the truth is that we never know whether something will happen or not. From this point of view, we must try to recognize the future and understand its possibilities, but never assume that we have fully figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. It's better to have no particularly bad record than to be good and bad</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that made a big impact on me. Simon says there are two kinds of tennis games, one is a winner's game; One is a loser's game.</p><p>The winner's game is played by professional players such as Federer, Djokovic, Nadal and Sampras. The winner in the tennis championship is skilled and skilled, so he doesn't have to worry about the rebound of tennis, wind speed, dazzling sunshine, lack of skills, etc. They can fight however they want, simply whatever they want.</p><p>The winner's race belongs to the winner. The winner hits a ball that the opponent can't catch. To win in a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that a winner can hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play the winner's ball. We win the game mainly by avoiding playing the loser's ball.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, even simple balls can't be catched sometimes. What we are after is to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back.</p><p>We know that if we can fight back ten times, our opponent may only do nine times. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by hitting good shots, we win by not hitting bad shots.</p><p>When I read this article and extended this concept to investment, I felt enlightened at that time. We live in an uncertain world, it is difficult to always make successful investments, and those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I've come to the conclusion that for me, perhaps the best way for us to succeed in investing in the medium and long term is to make no mistakes, make no wrong investments, and have no bad years. As long as good investments are accumulated one by one, as long as the performance is steady year after year, twenty, thirty, forty, fifty years, it will be a successful investment career in the long run.</p><p>The key is that it is impossible to be right every time, it is difficult to know what will happen in the future, it is difficult to make a good shot or make a beautiful investment, and succeed overnight, but as long as we avoid failure, we are on the right path to success through investment. In the investment industry, if you haven't had a bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is first-class.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts</b></p><p>Macro forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, market and interest will change in the future, and studies the overall situation. These things, first of all, are difficult to study and understand, and secondly, they are difficult to study them better than others.</p><p>People like me, to predict what will happen to the world economy, the US economy or the Chinese economy or interest rates or China's A-shares next year, what advantages do I have over others? It's hard to understand these things better than others have studied. And we can achieve better investment performance by understanding better than others' research.</p><p>Oaktree's investments are not based on future macro projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest?</b></p><p>First, you have to consider what kind of investment results will be in the future. When building an investment portfolio, the investment portfolio must at least be OK, that is, it is still feasible in any possible scenario, and only under this condition can you invest.</p><p>Second, try to control risks. This risk is not to get out of control in any scenario you can consider, so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we won't assume that we can understand macroeconomics, but we really should know more about micro things. What is microscopic? It's the company, the industry and the securities. On these specific, relatively small-picture task lists, if you can study these very hard and have the right skills at the same time, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Bargains</b></p><p>When I first joined Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called Pretty Fifty, which is the fifty best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are too expensive. If you bought these companies in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973, you would lose 80% to 90%, even though you bought the best companies in the United States.</p><p>In addition, some of these companies had high hopes, but in the end they fell, for example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>, Polaroid. Few people take pictures with film these days, and few people use Polaroid cameras, because we can take countless photos for free with our mobile phones. These companies basically disappeared, but at that time, in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing that they would always be so perfect, and they didn't think they would disappear. The point is, you may lose a lot of money by buying excellent companies.</p><p>We can learn a truth from this: a good company and a good investment are not the same thing. You can lose a lot of money by buying a good company, but you can make a lot of money by buying a bad company. This tells us that it is definitely not the quality of the company that determines investment income.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? Is the price at which it bought. If the company is expensive, you may lose money. If the poor quality company is cheap, you may make money, even make money safely. This is very important for the formation of my investment philosophy.</p><p>I learned that it's not what you buy that matters, but how much you pay for it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy them well. It's very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. Wise men create, fools imitate</b></p><p>In investing, every trend goes to extremes at the end.</p><p>When A-shares reach 2000 points, people who invest in A-shares are doing the right thing. But later, when the stock rose, others were attracted, and others bought, buying more and more, buying more and more excited, and using leverage to buy. Those who bought at 5000 later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in a trend, at the right timing and price, you can safely make good gains. If you move at the end of a trend, regardless of timing and price, you may be in big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that a six-foot-tall man may drown in a river that is five feet deep on average</b></p><p>When we make investments, we can't just pursue average survival, we must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, we must build a portfolio that can withstand the worst tests. Our management of investments must be very professional, have a strong sense of risk, and have a strong sense of conservatism, so that we can get through the difficult times.</p><p>A good life is easy to live. When a good life is, it is not difficult to survive. At this time, everyone is actually living well. The hard part is who gets through the hard times, those who have too aggressive portfolios, those who have too much leverage can't get through the hard times, and the six-foot-tall people who drown, those are the people who are talking about.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. Is it much earlier than others, or is it wrong? It is difficult to distinguish the two</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investment faces the future. In the field of investment, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That is, even if we are doing the right thing, our timing may not be exactly right.</p><p>We may be too early, and if we are too late, we may be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it looks like you're doing it wrong.</p><p>When A-shares reached 4000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 points to 5000 points, it seems that they are wrong, and they feel wrong themselves. They may regret leaving at 4000 points and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000 points.</p><p>They feel that they have done something wrong, but in fact they are right, but it is too early. Our timing can never be accurate. You must have courage and faith. If there is a good reason for what you do, the facts will eventually prove that your actions are rational.</p><p>I have to have the courage myself. I buy something whose price is falling, I buy it because it's cheap, because it's falling, I like it, and I buy it. It will keep falling. I have to be confident and believe that I am right. You can't sell just because it continues to fall. So you should keep in mind that before the facts finally prove that you are correct, it is difficult to tell whether you are much earlier than others or did something wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>13. What are the tasks of asset managers</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is to make a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We disagree with none of this. The first job of an asset management manager is to control risks. We at Oak Assets regard risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We don't invest in mainstream stocks and mainstream bonds. We explore corporate bonds, convertible securities, non-performing bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly listed stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc., corresponding to each category, we have our own investment strategies.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance won't rank first this year and then last next year. We are usually in the middle. Because of our excellent risk control, we will stand out in difficult times. We have achieved this goal in the past 30 years.</p><p>We get average returns, which are considered acceptable in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough, but our customers want our performance to exceed the average level in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: we get average returns in bull markets, and excess returns in bear markets.</p><p>What will happen if we can achieve this goal year after year and decades? Our performance volatility will be below average. The overall higher-than-average return is because our outstanding performance in the bear market allowed us to achieve this goal, which is indeed necessary so that our customers will feel happy.</p><p>I think this is the secret of our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of 100 billion dollars, from 3.5 billion dollars in 2006 to 100 billion dollars today. We really started our asset management business in 2007, and 2008 was during the financial crisis. We received at least 10 billion dollars in 2007, because our performance will be better than the average level in a bear market. We can show people this investment result, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and capable of delivering a sustained and stable investment result. And we grow!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the less efficient part of the market.</p><p>In the part of the market that we think people can understand, it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage to make money; But for those parts of the market that people usually don't understand, you can do it relatively well, like bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure, real estate, emerging markets... these projects are relatively easier to get an investment advantage, but not that easy, just relatively easier relative to products in a fully efficient market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasts are not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I don't believe that macro forecasts work. In my opinion, macro forecasting is not necessary for successful investing. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett, don't succeed because they do better macro forecasts than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries, and securities.</p><p>As a final note, we don't speculate on market ups and downs.</p><p>When managing money, we don't invest money just because we think the market is going up, and take it out just because we think the market is going down. It's too easy to make a mistake to guess the ups and downs like this. We just enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the degree of aggressiveness or conservatism based on the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments, in baseball's example, not from occasional home runs. Investors' long-term success stems from building a safe investment portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but actually difficult thing well, you can achieve very successful investment performance for decades. That's our goal, and I think we've achieved it. And that's what I want to share with you all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggests</b></p><p>1. Just as eggs should not be put in the same basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investment needs to be done step by step. When you feel better, do more and proceed step by step. If you don't understand, investing too much will only make it worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose everything.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is not encouraged to use a very small proportion (less than 5%) of the investment portfolio to invest in the aspects you are optimistic about, because too small an investment will have little effect on your portfolio no matter how it performs, and it is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in something you don't understand. If you don't understand it at all, don't do it.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Investment Philosophy Behind \"Must-Read Classics on Wall Street\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Investment Philosophy Behind \"Must-Read Classics on Wall Street\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-22 14:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School of Business and co-founded the American<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Management company (Oaktree Capital), which today has $100 billion in assets under management. Howard Marks began writing \"investment memos\" for investors in the 1990s. In the investment memo in January 2000, he predicted the bursting of the technology stock bubble, and then became famous. The \"investment memo\" became a must-read document on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The first email I open and read is a memo from Howard Marks. I always learn from it. His books are even more so,\" Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he strongly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing in Investing\", and says he read it twice.</p><p>This article is an excellent talk by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"The Most Important Thing About Investing\" came about and where these influences came from.</p><p>I'm glad everyone is here to listen to me talk about my book, my investment philosophy, and how we manage money.</p><p>I want to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe they are necessary in investing. What I also want to talk to you today is how the investment philosophy behind this book comes into being and where these influences come from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made of uncertainty</b></p><p>We should realize that the world is a world full of uncertainty, so that we can understand how to deal with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to accurately predict what will happen in the future, think that you are right and use this as the basis for your action, you must be asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, it may end badly for you.</p><p>The humorous Mark Twain said, \"What gets you into trouble is not what you don't know, but what you think you know but are actually wrong.\" I think too much faith in the future can be the root of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world</b></p><p>It is a very dangerous thing to base investment on future predictions. My predictions don't have to be much better than others. After all, no one can make correct predictions about the future macro. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well in various macro situations to control risks. Only by knowing that we are ignorant can we accept many possibilities in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The development of the world as I understand is often controlled by random events</b></p><p>We can't say what the future will necessarily be, the future is made up of random events that can happen. Even if you know the distribution of random events and the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when these events will happen. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave a safe space to deal with uncertainty</b></p><p>It can be said that in my career, I have been successful because I study what may happen in the future, but I don't think it will happen, leave room for uncertainty, leave room for variables, and prepare myself for life in an uncertain world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is exactly what most people think won't happen</b></p><p>What is a risk? A very good interpretation is: \"Risk means that something unexpected always happens\" (pointed out by Eloy Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics).</p><p>If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; If most investors believe that something won't happen in the future, then that event is where the risk lies.</p><p>But the truth is that we never know whether something will happen or not. From this point of view, we must try to recognize the future and understand its possibilities, but never assume that we have fully figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. It's better to have no particularly bad record than to be good and bad</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that made a big impact on me. Simon says there are two kinds of tennis games, one is a winner's game; One is a loser's game.</p><p>The winner's game is played by professional players such as Federer, Djokovic, Nadal and Sampras. The winner in the tennis championship is skilled and skilled, so he doesn't have to worry about the rebound of tennis, wind speed, dazzling sunshine, lack of skills, etc. They can fight however they want, simply whatever they want.</p><p>The winner's race belongs to the winner. The winner hits a ball that the opponent can't catch. To win in a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that a winner can hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play the winner's ball. We win the game mainly by avoiding playing the loser's ball.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, even simple balls can't be catched sometimes. What we are after is to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back.</p><p>We know that if we can fight back ten times, our opponent may only do nine times. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by hitting good shots, we win by not hitting bad shots.</p><p>When I read this article and extended this concept to investment, I felt enlightened at that time. We live in an uncertain world, it is difficult to always make successful investments, and those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I've come to the conclusion that for me, perhaps the best way for us to succeed in investing in the medium and long term is to make no mistakes, make no wrong investments, and have no bad years. As long as good investments are accumulated one by one, as long as the performance is steady year after year, twenty, thirty, forty, fifty years, it will be a successful investment career in the long run.</p><p>The key is that it is impossible to be right every time, it is difficult to know what will happen in the future, it is difficult to make a good shot or make a beautiful investment, and succeed overnight, but as long as we avoid failure, we are on the right path to success through investment. In the investment industry, if you haven't had a bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is first-class.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts</b></p><p>Macro forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, market and interest will change in the future, and studies the overall situation. These things, first of all, are difficult to study and understand, and secondly, they are difficult to study them better than others.</p><p>People like me, to predict what will happen to the world economy, the US economy or the Chinese economy or interest rates or China's A-shares next year, what advantages do I have over others? It's hard to understand these things better than others have studied. And we can achieve better investment performance by understanding better than others' research.</p><p>Oaktree's investments are not based on future macro projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest?</b></p><p>First, you have to consider what kind of investment results will be in the future. When building an investment portfolio, the investment portfolio must at least be OK, that is, it is still feasible in any possible scenario, and only under this condition can you invest.</p><p>Second, try to control risks. This risk is not to get out of control in any scenario you can consider, so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we won't assume that we can understand macroeconomics, but we really should know more about micro things. What is microscopic? It's the company, the industry and the securities. On these specific, relatively small-picture task lists, if you can study these very hard and have the right skills at the same time, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Bargains</b></p><p>When I first joined Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called Pretty Fifty, which is the fifty best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are too expensive. If you bought these companies in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973, you would lose 80% to 90%, even though you bought the best companies in the United States.</p><p>In addition, some of these companies had high hopes, but in the end they fell, for example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>, Polaroid. Few people take pictures with film these days, and few people use Polaroid cameras, because we can take countless photos for free with our mobile phones. These companies basically disappeared, but at that time, in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing that they would always be so perfect, and they didn't think they would disappear. The point is, you may lose a lot of money by buying excellent companies.</p><p>We can learn a truth from this: a good company and a good investment are not the same thing. You can lose a lot of money by buying a good company, but you can make a lot of money by buying a bad company. This tells us that it is definitely not the quality of the company that determines investment income.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? Is the price at which it bought. If the company is expensive, you may lose money. If the poor quality company is cheap, you may make money, even make money safely. This is very important for the formation of my investment philosophy.</p><p>I learned that it's not what you buy that matters, but how much you pay for it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy them well. It's very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. Wise men create, fools imitate</b></p><p>In investing, every trend goes to extremes at the end.</p><p>When A-shares reach 2000 points, people who invest in A-shares are doing the right thing. But later, when the stock rose, others were attracted, and others bought, buying more and more, buying more and more excited, and using leverage to buy. Those who bought at 5000 later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in a trend, at the right timing and price, you can safely make good gains. If you move at the end of a trend, regardless of timing and price, you may be in big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that a six-foot-tall man may drown in a river that is five feet deep on average</b></p><p>When we make investments, we can't just pursue average survival, we must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, we must build a portfolio that can withstand the worst tests. Our management of investments must be very professional, have a strong sense of risk, and have a strong sense of conservatism, so that we can get through the difficult times.</p><p>A good life is easy to live. When a good life is, it is not difficult to survive. At this time, everyone is actually living well. The hard part is who gets through the hard times, those who have too aggressive portfolios, those who have too much leverage can't get through the hard times, and the six-foot-tall people who drown, those are the people who are talking about.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. Is it much earlier than others, or is it wrong? It is difficult to distinguish the two</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investment faces the future. In the field of investment, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That is, even if we are doing the right thing, our timing may not be exactly right.</p><p>We may be too early, and if we are too late, we may be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it looks like you're doing it wrong.</p><p>When A-shares reached 4000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 points to 5000 points, it seems that they are wrong, and they feel wrong themselves. They may regret leaving at 4000 points and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000 points.</p><p>They feel that they have done something wrong, but in fact they are right, but it is too early. Our timing can never be accurate. You must have courage and faith. If there is a good reason for what you do, the facts will eventually prove that your actions are rational.</p><p>I have to have the courage myself. I buy something whose price is falling, I buy it because it's cheap, because it's falling, I like it, and I buy it. It will keep falling. I have to be confident and believe that I am right. You can't sell just because it continues to fall. So you should keep in mind that before the facts finally prove that you are correct, it is difficult to tell whether you are much earlier than others or did something wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>13. What are the tasks of asset managers</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is to make a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We disagree with none of this. The first job of an asset management manager is to control risks. We at Oak Assets regard risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We don't invest in mainstream stocks and mainstream bonds. We explore corporate bonds, convertible securities, non-performing bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly listed stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc., corresponding to each category, we have our own investment strategies.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance won't rank first this year and then last next year. We are usually in the middle. Because of our excellent risk control, we will stand out in difficult times. We have achieved this goal in the past 30 years.</p><p>We get average returns, which are considered acceptable in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough, but our customers want our performance to exceed the average level in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: we get average returns in bull markets, and excess returns in bear markets.</p><p>What will happen if we can achieve this goal year after year and decades? Our performance volatility will be below average. The overall higher-than-average return is because our outstanding performance in the bear market allowed us to achieve this goal, which is indeed necessary so that our customers will feel happy.</p><p>I think this is the secret of our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of 100 billion dollars, from 3.5 billion dollars in 2006 to 100 billion dollars today. We really started our asset management business in 2007, and 2008 was during the financial crisis. We received at least 10 billion dollars in 2007, because our performance will be better than the average level in a bear market. We can show people this investment result, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and capable of delivering a sustained and stable investment result. And we grow!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the less efficient part of the market.</p><p>In the part of the market that we think people can understand, it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage to make money; But for those parts of the market that people usually don't understand, you can do it relatively well, like bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure, real estate, emerging markets... these projects are relatively easier to get an investment advantage, but not that easy, just relatively easier relative to products in a fully efficient market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasts are not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I don't believe that macro forecasts work. In my opinion, macro forecasting is not necessary for successful investing. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett, don't succeed because they do better macro forecasts than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries, and securities.</p><p>As a final note, we don't speculate on market ups and downs.</p><p>When managing money, we don't invest money just because we think the market is going up, and take it out just because we think the market is going down. It's too easy to make a mistake to guess the ups and downs like this. We just enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the degree of aggressiveness or conservatism based on the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments, in baseball's example, not from occasional home runs. Investors' long-term success stems from building a safe investment portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but actually difficult thing well, you can achieve very successful investment performance for decades. That's our goal, and I think we've achieved it. And that's what I want to share with you all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggests</b></p><p>1. Just as eggs should not be put in the same basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investment needs to be done step by step. When you feel better, do more and proceed step by step. If you don't understand, investing too much will only make it worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose everything.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is not encouraged to use a very small proportion (less than 5%) of the investment portfolio to invest in the aspects you are optimistic about, because too small an investment will have little effect on your portfolio no matter how it performs, and it is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in something you don't understand. If you don't understand it at all, don't do it.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4176":"多领域控股","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187542871","content_text":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写“投资备忘录”，2000年1月份的投资备忘录中，他预言了科技股泡沫破裂，之后声名鹊起，“投资备忘录”成为华尔街的必读文件。“我第一时间打开并阅读的邮件就是霍华德·马克斯的备忘录。我总能从中学到东西。他的书籍更是如此”，沃伦·巴菲特说。巴菲特很少推荐投资书籍，他却大力推荐霍华德·马克斯的书《投资最重要的事》，而且说他读了两遍。本文是霍华德·马克斯在上海的一次精彩演讲，分享《投资最重要的事》背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。很高兴大家来这里听我讲我写的书，我的投资哲学，和我们如何管理金钱。我想借这个机会，重申一下哪些东西是我在投资中坚定地相信他们是必须的，我今天还想与大家谈论的是在这本书背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。1、你必须理解世界是由不确定性构成的我们要认识到，世界是一个充满不确定性的世界，这样才能了解如何应对这个世界。要是你觉得应对未来的方法是准确预测将来会发生什么，认为自己正确无误并把这作为行动依据，肯定是自找麻烦。要是意料之外的事情发生了，你的结局可能很糟糕。幽默的马克·吐温说过：“让你陷入麻烦的，不是你不知道的事，而是你自以为知道、其实错误的事。”我认为，太相信未来可能是危险的根源。2、太多的不确定性是我们这个世界危险的来源把投资建立在对未来的预测上是一件很危险的事，我的预测不必比其他人好到哪里，毕竟没有人对未来宏观能做出正确的预测。所以我们的投资组合一定要在各种宏观情况下都有不错的表现，以此控制风险。知道我们无知，才能接受未来的多种可能。3、我理解的世界的发展往往是由随机事件控制的我们不能说未来一定会怎样，未来是由可能发生的随机事件组成的。就算你知道随机事件的分布、各个事件的相对概率，你也不知道这些事件什么时候会发生。我觉得这很重要。4、留下安全空间应对不确定性可以说，在我的职业生涯中，我能取得成功，就是因为我研究将来可能发生什么、但是不认为一定会发生，给不确定性留有余地、给可变因素留有余地，为不确定性的世界中的生活做好准备。5、风险恰恰是大多数人认为不会发生的事什么是风险？一个非常好的解读是：“风险是指总有意料之外的事情发生”(Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen)（伦敦经济学院教授埃洛伊·迪姆森指出的）。如果一个风险在当前市场上，大多数投资者都认为会发生，那么这就不是风险；如果大多数投资者都认为某件事未来不会发生，那么这件事就是风险之所在。但是真相是我们永远不知道某一件事情会不会发生，从这一点来看，我们又必须努力去认知未来，去了解其可能性，但是永远不要假设我们已经完全搞清楚了。6、没有特别糟糕的记录好过时好时坏西蒙·拉莫(Simon Ramo)写了一本关于网球的书，对我产生了很大影响。西蒙说有两种网球比赛，一种是赢家的比赛；一种是输家的比赛。赢家的比赛是费德勒、德约科维奇、纳达尔、桑普拉斯这样的职业选手打的。网球冠军赛中的赢家技巧娴熟，球技炉火纯青，根本不用担心网球的反弹、风速、阳光刺眼、技术不到家等情况。他们想怎么打就怎么打，简直随心所欲。赢家的比赛是属于赢家的。赢家打出去的球，对手接不住。要在冠军赛中获胜，必须打出赢家才能打出来的那种非常刁钻的球。至于我们，我们打不出来赢家那样的球。我们比赛获胜，主要是靠避免打出输家那样的球。像我这样的业余爱好者打不出刁钻的球，就连简单的球有时都接不住。我们追求的就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去。我们知道要是我们能打回去十次，对手可能只能做到九次。或早或晚，对手的球就会出界或者过不了网。我们不靠打出好球获胜，我们靠不打坏球获胜。当我读到这篇文章时，把这个概念引申到投资上，我当时就有醍醐灌顶的感觉。我们生活在不确定的世界，很难总是做出成功的投资，那些追求伟大成功的人往往却失败了。我得出了一个结论，对我来说，我们要在投资中长期取得成功，或许最好的方式是不犯错，不做错误的投资，没有糟糕的年份。只要一笔一笔积累良好的投资，只要一年又一年业绩稳健，二十年、三十年、四十年、五十年，长此以往就是成功的投资生涯。关键是不可能每次都对，很难知道将来会怎样，很难打出一记好球或做出一笔漂亮的投资，一蹴而就地成功，但是我们只要避免失败，就走上了通过投资成功的正路。在投资这行，要是你20年、30年、40年都没有出现过糟糕的业绩，你的记录就是一流的。7、投资不应该基于宏观经济预测宏观预测是指预测经济、市场、利息将来会如何变化，研究的是大局。这些东西，首先是很难研究明白，其次是很难比别人研究得更明白。像我这样的人，去预测明年世界经济、美国经济或中国经济或利率或中国 A 股会怎样，我和别人比有什么优势？这些东西，很难比别人研究的更明白。而我们取得更好的投资业绩，靠的就是比别人研究的更明白。橡树资本的投资不以未来的宏观预测为依据。8、你应该如何投资呢第一，你要考虑未来会出什么样的投资结果。构建一个投资组合时，这个投资组合至少要OK，即在其任何可能出现的场景下依然是可行的，在这个条件下才来投资。第二，努力控制风险。这个风险是要在你能够考虑到的任何场景下不至于失控，这样你才不至于遇到糟糕的投资业绩。第三，我们不会假设我们能够理解宏观经济，但是我们确实应该知道更多微观的东西。什么是微观呢？就是公司，行业还有证券。在这些具体，比较小的画面的任务清单上，如果你能非常努力的研究这些同时又有正确的技巧，你就可以做到比别人更深入理解这些公司。9、投资的圣杯：便宜货1968 年，我刚进花旗银行工作时，公司投资了所谓的“漂亮五十”，就是美国最优秀、成长最快的五十家公司，包括惠普、德州仪器、可口可乐、默克、礼来。问题是这些公司太贵了，要是你 1968 年买了这些公司，持有五年，到了 1973 年，你会亏损 80% 到 90%，虽然你买的是美国最好的公司。此外，在这些公司里，有的被寄予厚望，最后却陨落了，比如，柯达、宝丽来。现在用胶卷拍照的人很少了，也很少有人用拍立得相机，因为我们用手机可以免费拍无数的照片。这些公司基本就消失了，可当时在 1968 年，人们以非常高的价钱投资这些公司，相信它们永远都会那么完美，想不到它们会消失。关键是，你买很优秀的公司也可能亏大钱。我们从中可以学到一个道理：好公司和好投资不是一回事。买好公司能亏很多钱，而买差公司能赚很多钱。这告诉我们，决定投资收益的肯定不是公司的质地。那么，决定投资收益的是什么？是买入的价格。要是公司价格贵，你可能亏钱。如果质地较差的公司价格便宜，你可能赚钱，甚至是安全地赚钱。这一点对我的投资理念形成非常重要。我认识到，重要的不是买什么，而是花了多少钱买的。关键不是买好东西，而是要买得好。这非常非常重要。10、智者开创，愚人模仿在投资中，每个趋势到最后都会走向极端。当 A 股 2000 点时，投资 A 股的人做的是正确的事。但是后来，股票上涨，其他人也被吸引来了，其他人也买，越买越多，越买越兴奋，还用杠杆买。后来在 5000 点买入的人就遭殃了。这告诉我们，如果你在趋势早期行动，在正确的时机和价格行动，你就能安全地取得良好收益。如果你在趋势末期行动，不管时机和价格，你可能遇上大麻烦。11、永远不要忘记六英尺高的人，可能淹死在平均五尺深的小河里我们做投资，不能只追求平均活下来，必须每天都活下来。因此，我们构建的投资组合必须要能经受得起最恶劣的考验。我们对投资的管理必须要很专业、有很强的风险意识、有很强的保守意识，这样我们就能度过艰难的时光。好日子容易过，日子好的时候，活下来并不难，这时候其实大家过得都很好。难的是谁能度过艰难的时光，那些投资组合过于激进，那些杠杆过高的人挨不过艰难时刻，六英尺高的人却淹死了，说的就是这些人。12、是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分正如前面所说的，投资面对的是未来，在投资领域，做正确的事情很困难，始终在正确的时机做正确的事情是不可能的。也就是说，即使我们做的事情是对的，我们的时机可能不是完全正确。我们很可能太早了，要是太晚，可能就麻烦了。所以你应该希望自己太早了。但是如果你太早了，在一段时间里，看起来你是做错了。当 A 股达到 4000 点时，有些人说不行，太危险了，他们离场了。从 4000 点到 5000 点，看起来他们错了，他们自己也觉得错了，他们可能很后悔在 4000 点离场，只能看着别人一路赚钱到 5000 点。他们觉得做错了，其实他们是对的，只是太早了。我们对时机的把握永远都不可能准确无误。你必须有勇气、有信念，如果自己做的事情有充分的理由，最后事实终将证明你的行动是理智的。我自己就必须有勇气。我买价格正在下跌的东西，我买是因为便宜，是因为跌了，我喜欢，我就买了。它会继续下跌。我必须要很自信，相信自己是正确的。不能因为继续跌，就卖了。所以你要牢记，在事实最终证明你是正确的之前，是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分。13、资产管理人的任务是什么第一，控制风险。资产管理人的任务是什么？是赚很多钱？击败市场？是跑赢华尔街？这些我们都不同意。资产管理经理的第一工作是控制风险。我们橡树资产把风险控制放在最高级别来看待。我们把自己定位为一个另类的资产管理人。我们不投资主流的股票，主流的债券，我们发掘教少被关注的公司债，可转换证券，不良债券，可控投资（能源，基础建设），房地产，公开上市的股票（低估），新兴市场等，对应每一个类别，我们都有自己的投资策略。第二，稳定性。我们的投资绩效不会今年排名第一，然后明年排最后。我们一般在中间，因为我们杰出的风险控制，我们会在艰难的时段会突颖而出。我们在过去30年达成了这个目标。我们获得平均的收益，平均收益在牛市已经算是可以了，牛市每个人都赚钱，这已经足够了，但是我们的客户想要我们在熊市的时候业绩能够超出平均水平。非常简单的概括就是：牛市我们获得平均收益，熊市我们获得超额收益。如果我们能够一年又一年的，数十年的达成这个目标，会出现什么情况呢？我们的业绩波动性会低于平均水平。整体高出平均收益的回报，就是因为我们在熊市杰出的表现让我们把这个目标做到了，这也确实是很有必要的，这样我们的客户就会感到开心。我认为这就是我们公司成长的秘密，我们经过20年达到千亿美元的规模，从2006的35亿到达今天1000亿，我们真正开始资产管理业务是在2007年，2008年正是金融危机期间，我们至少在2007年接受了100亿资金，因为我们的业绩在熊市的时候会好过平均水平，我们能够为人们展示这个投资结果，大家就觉得橡树资本值得信赖，有能力交付一个持续的稳定的投资成绩。我们就成长了！第三，我们寻找的是不太有效的市场那部分。我们认为人们能够理解的那部分市场，投资者要获得优势去赚钱，是非常困难的；但是对于人们通常不能理解的那部分市场，你能够做到相对好一点，像债券，可转债券，个人抵押，基础实施建设，房地产，新兴市场......这些项目获得投资优势相对要容易一点，但也没那么容易，只是相对于充分有效的市场上的产品相对容易一点。第四，我们相信宏观经济的预测不是成功投资的关键。前面已经讲过，我不相信宏观预测行得通。我认为，宏观预测不是成功投资的必要条件。我所知道的所有的成功的投资者，甚至包括巴菲特在内，都不是因为宏观预测比别人做得更好才取得成功的。他们取得成功靠的是他们关于公司、行业和证券的知识。最后一点，我们不猜测市场涨跌。在管理资金时，我们不会因为我们认为市场要涨了，就把钱投进去，认为市场要跌了，就把钱拿出来。这样猜涨跌太容易错了。我们就是进入市场，然后基本就留在市场里。但是我们会从市场资产的价格和周围投资者的心理出发，调整进取或保守的程度。长期投资成功不是通过伟大的投资取得的，以棒球为喻，不是来自偶尔打出本垒打，投资者的长期成功源于构建一个安全的投资组合，其中失败的很少、糟糕的年份很少。要是你能把这件看起来简单、其实很难的事情做好，你就能在几十年里取得非常成功的投资业绩。这是我们的目标，我认为我们已经做到了。这就是我想和大家分享的。14、关于资产配置，霍华德建议1、正如鸡蛋不要放在同一个篮子里，我们对未来未知，因此每个人都该多元化投资。2、没有“Magic Number”（具体的投资配置比例）。对于投资者来说，投资需要一步步来，感觉好了，就多做一点，循序渐进，如果不了解，投资过多只会更糟，可以犯错，但不能血本无归。3、同时也不鼓励投资组合中用极小的比例（小于5%）去投资你看好的方面，因为过小的投资无论怎样的表现对你的组合起到的作用很小，没有意义。4、不要投资不理解的东西，如果完全不懂，就不要去做。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9030980286,"gmtCreate":1645603285480,"gmtModify":1676534044733,"author":{"id":"3565396824889592","authorId":"3565396824889592","name":"Ckboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54bb39e290a61fea14f7f469fee6de45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565396824889592","idStr":"3565396824889592"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9030980286","repostId":"1187542871","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187542871","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1645511042,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1187542871?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-02-22 14:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Investment Philosophy Behind \"Must-Read Classics on Wall Street\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187542871","media":"期乐会","summary":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School of Business and co-founded the American<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Management company (Oaktree Capital), which today has $100 billion in assets under management. Howard Marks began writing \"investment memos\" for investors in the 1990s. In the investment memo in January 2000, he predicted the bursting of the technology stock bubble, and then became famous. The \"investment memo\" became a must-read document on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The first email I open and read is a memo from Howard Marks. I always learn from it. His books are even more so,\" Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he strongly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing in Investing\", and says he read it twice.</p><p>This article is an excellent talk by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"The Most Important Thing About Investing\" came about and where these influences came from.</p><p>I'm glad everyone is here to listen to me talk about my book, my investment philosophy, and how we manage money.</p><p>I want to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe they are necessary in investing. What I also want to talk to you today is how the investment philosophy behind this book comes into being and where these influences come from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made of uncertainty</b></p><p>We should realize that the world is a world full of uncertainty, so that we can understand how to deal with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to accurately predict what will happen in the future, think that you are right and use this as the basis for your action, you must be asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, it may end badly for you.</p><p>The humorous Mark Twain said, \"What gets you into trouble is not what you don't know, but what you think you know but are actually wrong.\" I think too much faith in the future can be the root of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world</b></p><p>It is a very dangerous thing to base investment on future predictions. My predictions don't have to be much better than others. After all, no one can make correct predictions about the future macro. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well in various macro situations to control risks. Only by knowing that we are ignorant can we accept many possibilities in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The development of the world as I understand is often controlled by random events</b></p><p>We can't say what the future will necessarily be, the future is made up of random events that can happen. Even if you know the distribution of random events and the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when these events will happen. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave a safe space to deal with uncertainty</b></p><p>It can be said that in my career, I have been successful because I study what may happen in the future, but I don't think it will happen, leave room for uncertainty, leave room for variables, and prepare myself for life in an uncertain world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is exactly what most people think won't happen</b></p><p>What is a risk? A very good interpretation is: \"Risk means that something unexpected always happens\" (pointed out by Eloy Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics).</p><p>If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; If most investors believe that something won't happen in the future, then that event is where the risk lies.</p><p>But the truth is that we never know whether something will happen or not. From this point of view, we must try to recognize the future and understand its possibilities, but never assume that we have fully figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. It's better to have no particularly bad record than to be good and bad</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that made a big impact on me. Simon says there are two kinds of tennis games, one is a winner's game; One is a loser's game.</p><p>The winner's game is played by professional players such as Federer, Djokovic, Nadal and Sampras. The winner in the tennis championship is skilled and skilled, so he doesn't have to worry about the rebound of tennis, wind speed, dazzling sunshine, lack of skills, etc. They can fight however they want, simply whatever they want.</p><p>The winner's race belongs to the winner. The winner hits a ball that the opponent can't catch. To win in a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that a winner can hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play the winner's ball. We win the game mainly by avoiding playing the loser's ball.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, even simple balls can't be catched sometimes. What we are after is to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back.</p><p>We know that if we can fight back ten times, our opponent may only do nine times. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by hitting good shots, we win by not hitting bad shots.</p><p>When I read this article and extended this concept to investment, I felt enlightened at that time. We live in an uncertain world, it is difficult to always make successful investments, and those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I've come to the conclusion that for me, perhaps the best way for us to succeed in investing in the medium and long term is to make no mistakes, make no wrong investments, and have no bad years. As long as good investments are accumulated one by one, as long as the performance is steady year after year, twenty, thirty, forty, fifty years, it will be a successful investment career in the long run.</p><p>The key is that it is impossible to be right every time, it is difficult to know what will happen in the future, it is difficult to make a good shot or make a beautiful investment, and succeed overnight, but as long as we avoid failure, we are on the right path to success through investment. In the investment industry, if you haven't had a bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is first-class.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts</b></p><p>Macro forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, market and interest will change in the future, and studies the overall situation. These things, first of all, are difficult to study and understand, and secondly, they are difficult to study them better than others.</p><p>People like me, to predict what will happen to the world economy, the US economy or the Chinese economy or interest rates or China's A-shares next year, what advantages do I have over others? It's hard to understand these things better than others have studied. And we can achieve better investment performance by understanding better than others' research.</p><p>Oaktree's investments are not based on future macro projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest?</b></p><p>First, you have to consider what kind of investment results will be in the future. When building an investment portfolio, the investment portfolio must at least be OK, that is, it is still feasible in any possible scenario, and only under this condition can you invest.</p><p>Second, try to control risks. This risk is not to get out of control in any scenario you can consider, so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we won't assume that we can understand macroeconomics, but we really should know more about micro things. What is microscopic? It's the company, the industry and the securities. On these specific, relatively small-picture task lists, if you can study these very hard and have the right skills at the same time, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Bargains</b></p><p>When I first joined Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called Pretty Fifty, which is the fifty best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are too expensive. If you bought these companies in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973, you would lose 80% to 90%, even though you bought the best companies in the United States.</p><p>In addition, some of these companies had high hopes, but in the end they fell, for example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>, Polaroid. Few people take pictures with film these days, and few people use Polaroid cameras, because we can take countless photos for free with our mobile phones. These companies basically disappeared, but at that time, in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing that they would always be so perfect, and they didn't think they would disappear. The point is, you may lose a lot of money by buying excellent companies.</p><p>We can learn a truth from this: a good company and a good investment are not the same thing. You can lose a lot of money by buying a good company, but you can make a lot of money by buying a bad company. This tells us that it is definitely not the quality of the company that determines investment income.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? Is the price at which it bought. If the company is expensive, you may lose money. If the poor quality company is cheap, you may make money, even make money safely. This is very important for the formation of my investment philosophy.</p><p>I learned that it's not what you buy that matters, but how much you pay for it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy them well. It's very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. Wise men create, fools imitate</b></p><p>In investing, every trend goes to extremes at the end.</p><p>When A-shares reach 2000 points, people who invest in A-shares are doing the right thing. But later, when the stock rose, others were attracted, and others bought, buying more and more, buying more and more excited, and using leverage to buy. Those who bought at 5000 later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in a trend, at the right timing and price, you can safely make good gains. If you move at the end of a trend, regardless of timing and price, you may be in big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that a six-foot-tall man may drown in a river that is five feet deep on average</b></p><p>When we make investments, we can't just pursue average survival, we must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, we must build a portfolio that can withstand the worst tests. Our management of investments must be very professional, have a strong sense of risk, and have a strong sense of conservatism, so that we can get through the difficult times.</p><p>A good life is easy to live. When a good life is, it is not difficult to survive. At this time, everyone is actually living well. The hard part is who gets through the hard times, those who have too aggressive portfolios, those who have too much leverage can't get through the hard times, and the six-foot-tall people who drown, those are the people who are talking about.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. Is it much earlier than others, or is it wrong? It is difficult to distinguish the two</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investment faces the future. In the field of investment, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That is, even if we are doing the right thing, our timing may not be exactly right.</p><p>We may be too early, and if we are too late, we may be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it looks like you're doing it wrong.</p><p>When A-shares reached 4000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 points to 5000 points, it seems that they are wrong, and they feel wrong themselves. They may regret leaving at 4000 points and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000 points.</p><p>They feel that they have done something wrong, but in fact they are right, but it is too early. Our timing can never be accurate. You must have courage and faith. If there is a good reason for what you do, the facts will eventually prove that your actions are rational.</p><p>I have to have the courage myself. I buy something whose price is falling, I buy it because it's cheap, because it's falling, I like it, and I buy it. It will keep falling. I have to be confident and believe that I am right. You can't sell just because it continues to fall. So you should keep in mind that before the facts finally prove that you are correct, it is difficult to tell whether you are much earlier than others or did something wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>13. What are the tasks of asset managers</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is to make a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We disagree with none of this. The first job of an asset management manager is to control risks. We at Oak Assets regard risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We don't invest in mainstream stocks and mainstream bonds. We explore corporate bonds, convertible securities, non-performing bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly listed stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc., corresponding to each category, we have our own investment strategies.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance won't rank first this year and then last next year. We are usually in the middle. Because of our excellent risk control, we will stand out in difficult times. We have achieved this goal in the past 30 years.</p><p>We get average returns, which are considered acceptable in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough, but our customers want our performance to exceed the average level in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: we get average returns in bull markets, and excess returns in bear markets.</p><p>What will happen if we can achieve this goal year after year and decades? Our performance volatility will be below average. The overall higher-than-average return is because our outstanding performance in the bear market allowed us to achieve this goal, which is indeed necessary so that our customers will feel happy.</p><p>I think this is the secret of our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of 100 billion dollars, from 3.5 billion dollars in 2006 to 100 billion dollars today. We really started our asset management business in 2007, and 2008 was during the financial crisis. We received at least 10 billion dollars in 2007, because our performance will be better than the average level in a bear market. We can show people this investment result, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and capable of delivering a sustained and stable investment result. And we grow!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the less efficient part of the market.</p><p>In the part of the market that we think people can understand, it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage to make money; But for those parts of the market that people usually don't understand, you can do it relatively well, like bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure, real estate, emerging markets... these projects are relatively easier to get an investment advantage, but not that easy, just relatively easier relative to products in a fully efficient market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasts are not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I don't believe that macro forecasts work. In my opinion, macro forecasting is not necessary for successful investing. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett, don't succeed because they do better macro forecasts than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries, and securities.</p><p>As a final note, we don't speculate on market ups and downs.</p><p>When managing money, we don't invest money just because we think the market is going up, and take it out just because we think the market is going down. It's too easy to make a mistake to guess the ups and downs like this. We just enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the degree of aggressiveness or conservatism based on the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments, in baseball's example, not from occasional home runs. Investors' long-term success stems from building a safe investment portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but actually difficult thing well, you can achieve very successful investment performance for decades. That's our goal, and I think we've achieved it. And that's what I want to share with you all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggests</b></p><p>1. Just as eggs should not be put in the same basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investment needs to be done step by step. When you feel better, do more and proceed step by step. If you don't understand, investing too much will only make it worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose everything.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is not encouraged to use a very small proportion (less than 5%) of the investment portfolio to invest in the aspects you are optimistic about, because too small an investment will have little effect on your portfolio no matter how it performs, and it is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in something you don't understand. If you don't understand it at all, don't do it.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1645511055786","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Investment Philosophy Behind \"Must-Read Classics on Wall Street\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Investment Philosophy Behind \"Must-Read Classics on Wall Street\"\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">期乐会</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-22 14:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Introduction:</b>Howard Marks graduated from the Wharton School of Business and co-founded the American<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAK\">Oaktree Capital</a>Management company (Oaktree Capital), which today has $100 billion in assets under management. Howard Marks began writing \"investment memos\" for investors in the 1990s. In the investment memo in January 2000, he predicted the bursting of the technology stock bubble, and then became famous. The \"investment memo\" became a must-read document on Wall Street.</p><p>\"The first email I open and read is a memo from Howard Marks. I always learn from it. His books are even more so,\" Warren Buffett said.</p><p>Buffett rarely recommends investment books, but he strongly recommends Howard Marks' book \"The Most Important Thing in Investing\", and says he read it twice.</p><p>This article is an excellent talk by Howard Marks in Shanghai, sharing how the investment philosophy behind \"The Most Important Thing About Investing\" came about and where these influences came from.</p><p>I'm glad everyone is here to listen to me talk about my book, my investment philosophy, and how we manage money.</p><p>I want to take this opportunity to reiterate what I firmly believe they are necessary in investing. What I also want to talk to you today is how the investment philosophy behind this book comes into being and where these influences come from.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6751656f0d5e3443e7003f9db76070cd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"413\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1. You must understand that the world is made of uncertainty</b></p><p>We should realize that the world is a world full of uncertainty, so that we can understand how to deal with it. If you think that the way to deal with the future is to accurately predict what will happen in the future, think that you are right and use this as the basis for your action, you must be asking for trouble. If something unexpected happens, it may end badly for you.</p><p>The humorous Mark Twain said, \"What gets you into trouble is not what you don't know, but what you think you know but are actually wrong.\" I think too much faith in the future can be the root of danger.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5368906abff5d5a517cebc079de1257d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2. Too much uncertainty is the source of danger in our world</b></p><p>It is a very dangerous thing to base investment on future predictions. My predictions don't have to be much better than others. After all, no one can make correct predictions about the future macro. Therefore, our investment portfolio must perform well in various macro situations to control risks. Only by knowing that we are ignorant can we accept many possibilities in the future.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91729fd2cecd28f5691b58fdc8e203f2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3. The development of the world as I understand is often controlled by random events</b></p><p>We can't say what the future will necessarily be, the future is made up of random events that can happen. Even if you know the distribution of random events and the relative probabilities of each event, you don't know when these events will happen. I think it's important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ed244801f3a7fe1dba77e482484bef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4. Leave a safe space to deal with uncertainty</b></p><p>It can be said that in my career, I have been successful because I study what may happen in the future, but I don't think it will happen, leave room for uncertainty, leave room for variables, and prepare myself for life in an uncertain world.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/103c085e452fed0c456586740d8e21f7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>5. Risk is exactly what most people think won't happen</b></p><p>What is a risk? A very good interpretation is: \"Risk means that something unexpected always happens\" (pointed out by Eloy Dimson, a professor at the London School of Economics).</p><p>If a risk is in the current market and most investors think it will happen, then it is not a risk; If most investors believe that something won't happen in the future, then that event is where the risk lies.</p><p>But the truth is that we never know whether something will happen or not. From this point of view, we must try to recognize the future and understand its possibilities, but never assume that we have fully figured it out.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45346b201312ac992d91e9a589ccbf62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>6. It's better to have no particularly bad record than to be good and bad</b></p><p>Simon Ramo wrote a book about tennis that made a big impact on me. Simon says there are two kinds of tennis games, one is a winner's game; One is a loser's game.</p><p>The winner's game is played by professional players such as Federer, Djokovic, Nadal and Sampras. The winner in the tennis championship is skilled and skilled, so he doesn't have to worry about the rebound of tennis, wind speed, dazzling sunshine, lack of skills, etc. They can fight however they want, simply whatever they want.</p><p>The winner's race belongs to the winner. The winner hits a ball that the opponent can't catch. To win in a championship game, you have to hit the kind of very tricky ball that a winner can hit.</p><p>As for us, we can't play the winner's ball. We win the game mainly by avoiding playing the loser's ball.</p><p>Amateurs like me can't hit tricky balls, even simple balls can't be catched sometimes. What we are after is to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back, we are to hit the ball back.</p><p>We know that if we can fight back ten times, our opponent may only do nine times. Sooner or later, the opponent's ball will go out of bounds or fail to cross the net. We don't win by hitting good shots, we win by not hitting bad shots.</p><p>When I read this article and extended this concept to investment, I felt enlightened at that time. We live in an uncertain world, it is difficult to always make successful investments, and those who pursue great success often fail.</p><p>I've come to the conclusion that for me, perhaps the best way for us to succeed in investing in the medium and long term is to make no mistakes, make no wrong investments, and have no bad years. As long as good investments are accumulated one by one, as long as the performance is steady year after year, twenty, thirty, forty, fifty years, it will be a successful investment career in the long run.</p><p>The key is that it is impossible to be right every time, it is difficult to know what will happen in the future, it is difficult to make a good shot or make a beautiful investment, and succeed overnight, but as long as we avoid failure, we are on the right path to success through investment. In the investment industry, if you haven't had a bad performance in 20, 30, or 40 years, your record is first-class.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a34eae22141b5d6d1664373b1999a30a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Investment should not be based on macroeconomic forecasts</b></p><p>Macro forecasting refers to predicting how the economy, market and interest will change in the future, and studies the overall situation. These things, first of all, are difficult to study and understand, and secondly, they are difficult to study them better than others.</p><p>People like me, to predict what will happen to the world economy, the US economy or the Chinese economy or interest rates or China's A-shares next year, what advantages do I have over others? It's hard to understand these things better than others have studied. And we can achieve better investment performance by understanding better than others' research.</p><p>Oaktree's investments are not based on future macro projections.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568a4512af2303d8f1bb9e92e5786bfa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>8. How should you invest?</b></p><p>First, you have to consider what kind of investment results will be in the future. When building an investment portfolio, the investment portfolio must at least be OK, that is, it is still feasible in any possible scenario, and only under this condition can you invest.</p><p>Second, try to control risks. This risk is not to get out of control in any scenario you can consider, so that you don't encounter poor investment performance.</p><p>Third, we won't assume that we can understand macroeconomics, but we really should know more about micro things. What is microscopic? It's the company, the industry and the securities. On these specific, relatively small-picture task lists, if you can study these very hard and have the right skills at the same time, you can understand these companies more deeply than others.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3608dc4cf2c20427504193a36c19d04\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>9. The Holy Grail of Investment: Bargains</b></p><p>When I first joined Citibank in 1968, the company invested in the so-called Pretty Fifty, which is the fifty best and fastest-growing companies in the United States, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">Hewlett-Packard</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">Texas Instruments</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">Coca-Cola</a>Merck,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>。 The problem is that these companies are too expensive. If you bought these companies in 1968 and held them for five years, by 1973, you would lose 80% to 90%, even though you bought the best companies in the United States.</p><p>In addition, some of these companies had high hopes, but in the end they fell, for example,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">Kodak</a>, Polaroid. Few people take pictures with film these days, and few people use Polaroid cameras, because we can take countless photos for free with our mobile phones. These companies basically disappeared, but at that time, in 1968, people invested in these companies at very high prices, believing that they would always be so perfect, and they didn't think they would disappear. The point is, you may lose a lot of money by buying excellent companies.</p><p>We can learn a truth from this: a good company and a good investment are not the same thing. You can lose a lot of money by buying a good company, but you can make a lot of money by buying a bad company. This tells us that it is definitely not the quality of the company that determines investment income.</p><p>So, what determines investment returns? Is the price at which it bought. If the company is expensive, you may lose money. If the poor quality company is cheap, you may make money, even make money safely. This is very important for the formation of my investment philosophy.</p><p>I learned that it's not what you buy that matters, but how much you pay for it. The key is not to buy good things, but to buy them well. It's very, very important.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60e6e337c5d9f04947275ad92b45483f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>10. Wise men create, fools imitate</b></p><p>In investing, every trend goes to extremes at the end.</p><p>When A-shares reach 2000 points, people who invest in A-shares are doing the right thing. But later, when the stock rose, others were attracted, and others bought, buying more and more, buying more and more excited, and using leverage to buy. Those who bought at 5000 later suffered.</p><p>This tells us that if you act early in a trend, at the right timing and price, you can safely make good gains. If you move at the end of a trend, regardless of timing and price, you may be in big trouble.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/efb5834bd7cc7e92def8f35ca4009408\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>11. Never forget that a six-foot-tall man may drown in a river that is five feet deep on average</b></p><p>When we make investments, we can't just pursue average survival, we must survive every day.</p><p>Therefore, we must build a portfolio that can withstand the worst tests. Our management of investments must be very professional, have a strong sense of risk, and have a strong sense of conservatism, so that we can get through the difficult times.</p><p>A good life is easy to live. When a good life is, it is not difficult to survive. At this time, everyone is actually living well. The hard part is who gets through the hard times, those who have too aggressive portfolios, those who have too much leverage can't get through the hard times, and the six-foot-tall people who drown, those are the people who are talking about.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54ec5cdb9c594cf699a43411d32f2191\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>12. Is it much earlier than others, or is it wrong? It is difficult to distinguish the two</b></p><p>As mentioned earlier, investment faces the future. In the field of investment, it is difficult to do the right thing, and it is impossible to always do the right thing at the right time. That is, even if we are doing the right thing, our timing may not be exactly right.</p><p>We may be too early, and if we are too late, we may be in trouble. So you should wish you were too early. But if you're too early, for a while, it looks like you're doing it wrong.</p><p>When A-shares reached 4000 points, some people said no, it was too dangerous, and they left the market. From 4000 points to 5000 points, it seems that they are wrong, and they feel wrong themselves. They may regret leaving at 4000 points and can only watch others make money all the way to 5000 points.</p><p>They feel that they have done something wrong, but in fact they are right, but it is too early. Our timing can never be accurate. You must have courage and faith. If there is a good reason for what you do, the facts will eventually prove that your actions are rational.</p><p>I have to have the courage myself. I buy something whose price is falling, I buy it because it's cheap, because it's falling, I like it, and I buy it. It will keep falling. I have to be confident and believe that I am right. You can't sell just because it continues to fall. So you should keep in mind that before the facts finally prove that you are correct, it is difficult to tell whether you are much earlier than others or did something wrong.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091822289ba4245413c67ec3cfd391ef\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>13. What are the tasks of asset managers</b></p><p>First, control risks.</p><p>What are the tasks of an asset manager? Is to make a lot of money? Beat the market? Is it outperforming Wall Street? We disagree with none of this. The first job of an asset management manager is to control risks. We at Oak Assets regard risk control at the highest level.</p><p>We position ourselves as an alternative asset manager. We don't invest in mainstream stocks and mainstream bonds. We explore corporate bonds, convertible securities, non-performing bonds, controllable investments (energy, infrastructure), real estate, publicly listed stocks (undervalued), emerging markets, etc., corresponding to each category, we have our own investment strategies.</p><p>Second, stability.</p><p>Our investment performance won't rank first this year and then last next year. We are usually in the middle. Because of our excellent risk control, we will stand out in difficult times. We have achieved this goal in the past 30 years.</p><p>We get average returns, which are considered acceptable in a bull market. Everyone makes money in a bull market, which is enough, but our customers want our performance to exceed the average level in a bear market.</p><p>A very simple summary is: we get average returns in bull markets, and excess returns in bear markets.</p><p>What will happen if we can achieve this goal year after year and decades? Our performance volatility will be below average. The overall higher-than-average return is because our outstanding performance in the bear market allowed us to achieve this goal, which is indeed necessary so that our customers will feel happy.</p><p>I think this is the secret of our company's growth. After 20 years, we have reached a scale of 100 billion dollars, from 3.5 billion dollars in 2006 to 100 billion dollars today. We really started our asset management business in 2007, and 2008 was during the financial crisis. We received at least 10 billion dollars in 2007, because our performance will be better than the average level in a bear market. We can show people this investment result, and everyone feels that Oaktree Capital is trustworthy and capable of delivering a sustained and stable investment result. And we grow!</p><p>Third, we are looking for the less efficient part of the market.</p><p>In the part of the market that we think people can understand, it is very difficult for investors to gain an advantage to make money; But for those parts of the market that people usually don't understand, you can do it relatively well, like bonds, convertible bonds, personal mortgages, infrastructure, real estate, emerging markets... these projects are relatively easier to get an investment advantage, but not that easy, just relatively easier relative to products in a fully efficient market.</p><p>Fourth, we believe that macroeconomic forecasts are not the key to successful investment.</p><p>As mentioned earlier, I don't believe that macro forecasts work. In my opinion, macro forecasting is not necessary for successful investing. All the successful investors I know, even Buffett, don't succeed because they do better macro forecasts than others. Their success depends on their knowledge of companies, industries, and securities.</p><p>As a final note, we don't speculate on market ups and downs.</p><p>When managing money, we don't invest money just because we think the market is going up, and take it out just because we think the market is going down. It's too easy to make a mistake to guess the ups and downs like this. We just enter the market and then basically stay in the market. However, we will adjust the degree of aggressiveness or conservatism based on the price of market assets and the psychology of surrounding investors.</p><p>Long-term investment success is not achieved through great investments, in baseball's example, not from occasional home runs. Investors' long-term success stems from building a safe investment portfolio with few failures and few bad years. If you can do this seemingly simple but actually difficult thing well, you can achieve very successful investment performance for decades. That's our goal, and I think we've achieved it. And that's what I want to share with you all.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee355aa3c1360abf8698134c634c090f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>14. Regarding asset allocation, Howard suggests</b></p><p>1. Just as eggs should not be put in the same basket, we don't know the future, so everyone should diversify their investments.</p><p>2. There is no \"Magic Number\" (specific investment allocation ratio). For investors, investment needs to be done step by step. When you feel better, do more and proceed step by step. If you don't understand, investing too much will only make it worse. You can make mistakes, but you can't lose everything.</p><p>3. At the same time, it is not encouraged to use a very small proportion (less than 5%) of the investment portfolio to invest in the aspects you are optimistic about, because too small an investment will have little effect on your portfolio no matter how it performs, and it is meaningless.</p><p>4. Don't invest in something you don't understand. If you don't understand it at all, don't do it.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw\">期乐会</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4176":"多领域控股","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/b1RLIOWPqoqGRFbKd_MSnw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187542871","content_text":"导读：霍华德·马克斯毕业于沃顿商学院，1995年与人联合创建的美国橡树资本管理公司（Oaktree Capital），如今管理资产规模达1000亿美元。霍华德·马克斯自上世纪90年代开始针对投资人撰写“投资备忘录”，2000年1月份的投资备忘录中，他预言了科技股泡沫破裂，之后声名鹊起，“投资备忘录”成为华尔街的必读文件。“我第一时间打开并阅读的邮件就是霍华德·马克斯的备忘录。我总能从中学到东西。他的书籍更是如此”，沃伦·巴菲特说。巴菲特很少推荐投资书籍，他却大力推荐霍华德·马克斯的书《投资最重要的事》，而且说他读了两遍。本文是霍华德·马克斯在上海的一次精彩演讲，分享《投资最重要的事》背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。很高兴大家来这里听我讲我写的书，我的投资哲学，和我们如何管理金钱。我想借这个机会，重申一下哪些东西是我在投资中坚定地相信他们是必须的，我今天还想与大家谈论的是在这本书背后的投资哲学是如何产生的，这些影响是从哪里来的。1、你必须理解世界是由不确定性构成的我们要认识到，世界是一个充满不确定性的世界，这样才能了解如何应对这个世界。要是你觉得应对未来的方法是准确预测将来会发生什么，认为自己正确无误并把这作为行动依据，肯定是自找麻烦。要是意料之外的事情发生了，你的结局可能很糟糕。幽默的马克·吐温说过：“让你陷入麻烦的，不是你不知道的事，而是你自以为知道、其实错误的事。”我认为，太相信未来可能是危险的根源。2、太多的不确定性是我们这个世界危险的来源把投资建立在对未来的预测上是一件很危险的事，我的预测不必比其他人好到哪里，毕竟没有人对未来宏观能做出正确的预测。所以我们的投资组合一定要在各种宏观情况下都有不错的表现，以此控制风险。知道我们无知，才能接受未来的多种可能。3、我理解的世界的发展往往是由随机事件控制的我们不能说未来一定会怎样，未来是由可能发生的随机事件组成的。就算你知道随机事件的分布、各个事件的相对概率，你也不知道这些事件什么时候会发生。我觉得这很重要。4、留下安全空间应对不确定性可以说，在我的职业生涯中，我能取得成功，就是因为我研究将来可能发生什么、但是不认为一定会发生，给不确定性留有余地、给可变因素留有余地，为不确定性的世界中的生活做好准备。5、风险恰恰是大多数人认为不会发生的事什么是风险？一个非常好的解读是：“风险是指总有意料之外的事情发生”(Risk Means More Things Can Happen Than Will Happen)（伦敦经济学院教授埃洛伊·迪姆森指出的）。如果一个风险在当前市场上，大多数投资者都认为会发生，那么这就不是风险；如果大多数投资者都认为某件事未来不会发生，那么这件事就是风险之所在。但是真相是我们永远不知道某一件事情会不会发生，从这一点来看，我们又必须努力去认知未来，去了解其可能性，但是永远不要假设我们已经完全搞清楚了。6、没有特别糟糕的记录好过时好时坏西蒙·拉莫(Simon Ramo)写了一本关于网球的书，对我产生了很大影响。西蒙说有两种网球比赛，一种是赢家的比赛；一种是输家的比赛。赢家的比赛是费德勒、德约科维奇、纳达尔、桑普拉斯这样的职业选手打的。网球冠军赛中的赢家技巧娴熟，球技炉火纯青，根本不用担心网球的反弹、风速、阳光刺眼、技术不到家等情况。他们想怎么打就怎么打，简直随心所欲。赢家的比赛是属于赢家的。赢家打出去的球，对手接不住。要在冠军赛中获胜，必须打出赢家才能打出来的那种非常刁钻的球。至于我们，我们打不出来赢家那样的球。我们比赛获胜，主要是靠避免打出输家那样的球。像我这样的业余爱好者打不出刁钻的球，就连简单的球有时都接不住。我们追求的就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去，我们就是把球打回去。我们知道要是我们能打回去十次，对手可能只能做到九次。或早或晚，对手的球就会出界或者过不了网。我们不靠打出好球获胜，我们靠不打坏球获胜。当我读到这篇文章时，把这个概念引申到投资上，我当时就有醍醐灌顶的感觉。我们生活在不确定的世界，很难总是做出成功的投资，那些追求伟大成功的人往往却失败了。我得出了一个结论，对我来说，我们要在投资中长期取得成功，或许最好的方式是不犯错，不做错误的投资，没有糟糕的年份。只要一笔一笔积累良好的投资，只要一年又一年业绩稳健，二十年、三十年、四十年、五十年，长此以往就是成功的投资生涯。关键是不可能每次都对，很难知道将来会怎样，很难打出一记好球或做出一笔漂亮的投资，一蹴而就地成功，但是我们只要避免失败，就走上了通过投资成功的正路。在投资这行，要是你20年、30年、40年都没有出现过糟糕的业绩，你的记录就是一流的。7、投资不应该基于宏观经济预测宏观预测是指预测经济、市场、利息将来会如何变化，研究的是大局。这些东西，首先是很难研究明白，其次是很难比别人研究得更明白。像我这样的人，去预测明年世界经济、美国经济或中国经济或利率或中国 A 股会怎样，我和别人比有什么优势？这些东西，很难比别人研究的更明白。而我们取得更好的投资业绩，靠的就是比别人研究的更明白。橡树资本的投资不以未来的宏观预测为依据。8、你应该如何投资呢第一，你要考虑未来会出什么样的投资结果。构建一个投资组合时，这个投资组合至少要OK，即在其任何可能出现的场景下依然是可行的，在这个条件下才来投资。第二，努力控制风险。这个风险是要在你能够考虑到的任何场景下不至于失控，这样你才不至于遇到糟糕的投资业绩。第三，我们不会假设我们能够理解宏观经济，但是我们确实应该知道更多微观的东西。什么是微观呢？就是公司，行业还有证券。在这些具体，比较小的画面的任务清单上，如果你能非常努力的研究这些同时又有正确的技巧，你就可以做到比别人更深入理解这些公司。9、投资的圣杯：便宜货1968 年，我刚进花旗银行工作时，公司投资了所谓的“漂亮五十”，就是美国最优秀、成长最快的五十家公司，包括惠普、德州仪器、可口可乐、默克、礼来。问题是这些公司太贵了，要是你 1968 年买了这些公司，持有五年，到了 1973 年，你会亏损 80% 到 90%，虽然你买的是美国最好的公司。此外，在这些公司里，有的被寄予厚望，最后却陨落了，比如，柯达、宝丽来。现在用胶卷拍照的人很少了，也很少有人用拍立得相机，因为我们用手机可以免费拍无数的照片。这些公司基本就消失了，可当时在 1968 年，人们以非常高的价钱投资这些公司，相信它们永远都会那么完美，想不到它们会消失。关键是，你买很优秀的公司也可能亏大钱。我们从中可以学到一个道理：好公司和好投资不是一回事。买好公司能亏很多钱，而买差公司能赚很多钱。这告诉我们，决定投资收益的肯定不是公司的质地。那么，决定投资收益的是什么？是买入的价格。要是公司价格贵，你可能亏钱。如果质地较差的公司价格便宜，你可能赚钱，甚至是安全地赚钱。这一点对我的投资理念形成非常重要。我认识到，重要的不是买什么，而是花了多少钱买的。关键不是买好东西，而是要买得好。这非常非常重要。10、智者开创，愚人模仿在投资中，每个趋势到最后都会走向极端。当 A 股 2000 点时，投资 A 股的人做的是正确的事。但是后来，股票上涨，其他人也被吸引来了，其他人也买，越买越多，越买越兴奋，还用杠杆买。后来在 5000 点买入的人就遭殃了。这告诉我们，如果你在趋势早期行动，在正确的时机和价格行动，你就能安全地取得良好收益。如果你在趋势末期行动，不管时机和价格，你可能遇上大麻烦。11、永远不要忘记六英尺高的人，可能淹死在平均五尺深的小河里我们做投资，不能只追求平均活下来，必须每天都活下来。因此，我们构建的投资组合必须要能经受得起最恶劣的考验。我们对投资的管理必须要很专业、有很强的风险意识、有很强的保守意识，这样我们就能度过艰难的时光。好日子容易过，日子好的时候，活下来并不难，这时候其实大家过得都很好。难的是谁能度过艰难的时光，那些投资组合过于激进，那些杠杆过高的人挨不过艰难时刻，六英尺高的人却淹死了，说的就是这些人。12、是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分正如前面所说的，投资面对的是未来，在投资领域，做正确的事情很困难，始终在正确的时机做正确的事情是不可能的。也就是说，即使我们做的事情是对的，我们的时机可能不是完全正确。我们很可能太早了，要是太晚，可能就麻烦了。所以你应该希望自己太早了。但是如果你太早了，在一段时间里，看起来你是做错了。当 A 股达到 4000 点时，有些人说不行，太危险了，他们离场了。从 4000 点到 5000 点，看起来他们错了，他们自己也觉得错了，他们可能很后悔在 4000 点离场，只能看着别人一路赚钱到 5000 点。他们觉得做错了，其实他们是对的，只是太早了。我们对时机的把握永远都不可能准确无误。你必须有勇气、有信念，如果自己做的事情有充分的理由，最后事实终将证明你的行动是理智的。我自己就必须有勇气。我买价格正在下跌的东西，我买是因为便宜，是因为跌了，我喜欢，我就买了。它会继续下跌。我必须要很自信，相信自己是正确的。不能因为继续跌，就卖了。所以你要牢记，在事实最终证明你是正确的之前，是比别人早了很多，还是做错了，两者很难区分。13、资产管理人的任务是什么第一，控制风险。资产管理人的任务是什么？是赚很多钱？击败市场？是跑赢华尔街？这些我们都不同意。资产管理经理的第一工作是控制风险。我们橡树资产把风险控制放在最高级别来看待。我们把自己定位为一个另类的资产管理人。我们不投资主流的股票，主流的债券，我们发掘教少被关注的公司债，可转换证券，不良债券，可控投资（能源，基础建设），房地产，公开上市的股票（低估），新兴市场等，对应每一个类别，我们都有自己的投资策略。第二，稳定性。我们的投资绩效不会今年排名第一，然后明年排最后。我们一般在中间，因为我们杰出的风险控制，我们会在艰难的时段会突颖而出。我们在过去30年达成了这个目标。我们获得平均的收益，平均收益在牛市已经算是可以了，牛市每个人都赚钱，这已经足够了，但是我们的客户想要我们在熊市的时候业绩能够超出平均水平。非常简单的概括就是：牛市我们获得平均收益，熊市我们获得超额收益。如果我们能够一年又一年的，数十年的达成这个目标，会出现什么情况呢？我们的业绩波动性会低于平均水平。整体高出平均收益的回报，就是因为我们在熊市杰出的表现让我们把这个目标做到了，这也确实是很有必要的，这样我们的客户就会感到开心。我认为这就是我们公司成长的秘密，我们经过20年达到千亿美元的规模，从2006的35亿到达今天1000亿，我们真正开始资产管理业务是在2007年，2008年正是金融危机期间，我们至少在2007年接受了100亿资金，因为我们的业绩在熊市的时候会好过平均水平，我们能够为人们展示这个投资结果，大家就觉得橡树资本值得信赖，有能力交付一个持续的稳定的投资成绩。我们就成长了！第三，我们寻找的是不太有效的市场那部分。我们认为人们能够理解的那部分市场，投资者要获得优势去赚钱，是非常困难的；但是对于人们通常不能理解的那部分市场，你能够做到相对好一点，像债券，可转债券，个人抵押，基础实施建设，房地产，新兴市场......这些项目获得投资优势相对要容易一点，但也没那么容易，只是相对于充分有效的市场上的产品相对容易一点。第四，我们相信宏观经济的预测不是成功投资的关键。前面已经讲过，我不相信宏观预测行得通。我认为，宏观预测不是成功投资的必要条件。我所知道的所有的成功的投资者，甚至包括巴菲特在内，都不是因为宏观预测比别人做得更好才取得成功的。他们取得成功靠的是他们关于公司、行业和证券的知识。最后一点，我们不猜测市场涨跌。在管理资金时，我们不会因为我们认为市场要涨了，就把钱投进去，认为市场要跌了，就把钱拿出来。这样猜涨跌太容易错了。我们就是进入市场，然后基本就留在市场里。但是我们会从市场资产的价格和周围投资者的心理出发，调整进取或保守的程度。长期投资成功不是通过伟大的投资取得的，以棒球为喻，不是来自偶尔打出本垒打，投资者的长期成功源于构建一个安全的投资组合，其中失败的很少、糟糕的年份很少。要是你能把这件看起来简单、其实很难的事情做好，你就能在几十年里取得非常成功的投资业绩。这是我们的目标，我认为我们已经做到了。这就是我想和大家分享的。14、关于资产配置，霍华德建议1、正如鸡蛋不要放在同一个篮子里，我们对未来未知，因此每个人都该多元化投资。2、没有“Magic Number”（具体的投资配置比例）。对于投资者来说，投资需要一步步来，感觉好了，就多做一点，循序渐进，如果不了解，投资过多只会更糟，可以犯错，但不能血本无归。3、同时也不鼓励投资组合中用极小的比例（小于5%）去投资你看好的方面，因为过小的投资无论怎样的表现对你的组合起到的作用很小，没有意义。4、不要投资不理解的东西，如果完全不懂，就不要去做。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004203904,"gmtCreate":1642602288612,"gmtModify":1676533726364,"author":{"id":"3565396824889592","authorId":"3565396824889592","name":"Ckboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54bb39e290a61fea14f7f469fee6de45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565396824889592","idStr":"3565396824889592"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004203904","repostId":"1184498273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2087,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9004209834,"gmtCreate":1642602178340,"gmtModify":1676533726331,"author":{"id":"3565396824889592","authorId":"3565396824889592","name":"Ckboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54bb39e290a61fea14f7f469fee6de45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565396824889592","idStr":"3565396824889592"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9004209834","repostId":"1163001777","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9005592096,"gmtCreate":1642340017430,"gmtModify":1676533702262,"author":{"id":"3565396824889592","authorId":"3565396824889592","name":"Ckboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54bb39e290a61fea14f7f469fee6de45","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3565396824889592","idStr":"3565396824889592"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌","listText":"👌","text":"👌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9005592096","repostId":"1136490165","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136490165","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1642299849,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1136490165?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-01-16 10:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Banks' battle for the future: $12 billion smashed into technology, JPMorgan Chase shocked the industry","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136490165","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"巨额科技投入部分反映摩根大通在与支付处理商Stripe、分期付款银行Affirm等金融科技公司竞争时面临的压力。随着交易收入增长放缓，公司投行营收增长正陷入瓶颈。为应对来自金融科技公司的激烈竞争，华尔","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Part of the huge investment in science and technology reflects<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The pressure faced when competing with fintechs like payment processor Stripe, installment bank Affirm, and others. With the slowdown of trading revenue growth, the company's investment banking revenue growth is falling into a bottleneck. In response to fierce competition from financial technology companies, JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank on Wall Street, plans to significantly increase its investment in technology.</p><p>In its latest earnings report, JPMorgan Chase expects the company's expenses to increase by 8% to $77 billion this year. The increase mainly came from spending on technology and investment: the company plans to increase technology spending to $12 billion, and support for expansion investment has also been revised up by 30% to $15 billion. More spending details have not been disclosed by the company yet.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase said it is allocating funds for data centers and cloud computing and expansion in new markets such as the UK; Investment in technology will ultimately reduce operating costs, but realizing these savings could take years.</p><p>Analysts believe that the huge technology investment partly reflects the pressure JPMorgan Chase faces when competing with financial technology companies such as payment processor Stripe and installment bank Affirm. With the slowdown of transaction revenue growth, the company's investment banking revenue growth is falling into a bottleneck.</p><p>During the earnings call, JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum acknowledged that banks are at an \"moment of acceleration\" in investment spending, \"partly due to fierce competition in the market,\" \"especially from new entrants.\"</p><p>The market reacted negatively to this. After the financial report was released, JPMorgan Chase's stock price fell by more than 6%. Investors are worried that huge spending may prevent the company from achieving its financial target of 17% ROTCE in 2022 and even 2023, and the lack of relevant details also frustrates investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f93897ad6af2c1b4f524c89dde5d617\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Banks' battle for the future: $12 billion smashed into technology, JPMorgan Chase shocked the industry</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBanks' battle for the future: $12 billion smashed into technology, JPMorgan Chase shocked the industry\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-01-16 10:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Part of the huge investment in science and technology reflects<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>The pressure faced when competing with fintechs like payment processor Stripe, installment bank Affirm, and others. With the slowdown of trading revenue growth, the company's investment banking revenue growth is falling into a bottleneck. In response to fierce competition from financial technology companies, JPMorgan Chase, the largest bank on Wall Street, plans to significantly increase its investment in technology.</p><p>In its latest earnings report, JPMorgan Chase expects the company's expenses to increase by 8% to $77 billion this year. The increase mainly came from spending on technology and investment: the company plans to increase technology spending to $12 billion, and support for expansion investment has also been revised up by 30% to $15 billion. More spending details have not been disclosed by the company yet.</p><p>JPMorgan Chase said it is allocating funds for data centers and cloud computing and expansion in new markets such as the UK; Investment in technology will ultimately reduce operating costs, but realizing these savings could take years.</p><p>Analysts believe that the huge technology investment partly reflects the pressure JPMorgan Chase faces when competing with financial technology companies such as payment processor Stripe and installment bank Affirm. With the slowdown of transaction revenue growth, the company's investment banking revenue growth is falling into a bottleneck.</p><p>During the earnings call, JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum acknowledged that banks are at an \"moment of acceleration\" in investment spending, \"partly due to fierce competition in the market,\" \"especially from new entrants.\"</p><p>The market reacted negatively to this. After the financial report was released, JPMorgan Chase's stock price fell by more than 6%. Investors are worried that huge spending may prevent the company from achieving its financial target of 17% ROTCE in 2022 and even 2023, and the lack of relevant details also frustrates investors.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f93897ad6af2c1b4f524c89dde5d617\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ef6725b8e722763b36af9aa02391f9e","relate_stocks":{"161121":"银行","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","JPM":"摩根大通","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136490165","content_text":"巨额科技投入部分反映摩根大通在与支付处理商Stripe、分期付款银行Affirm等金融科技公司竞争时面临的压力。随着交易收入增长放缓，公司投行营收增长正陷入瓶颈。为应对来自金融科技公司的激烈竞争，华尔街最大银行摩根大通计划大幅提高公司科技方面的投入。在最新的财报中，摩根大通预计公司今年支出将增长8%至770亿美元。增长主要来自科技和投资方面的支出：公司计划将技术支出提高至120亿美元，扩张投资方面的支持也被上调30%至150亿美元。更多支出细节公司暂未透露。摩根大通表示，公司正为数据中心和云计算及英国等新市场扩张分配资金；对科技的投入最终将降低运营成本，但实现这些节省可能需要数年时间。分析认为，巨额科技投入部分反映摩根大通在与支付处理商Stripe、分期付款银行Affirm等金融科技公司竞争时面临的压力。随着交易收入增长放缓，公司投行营收增长正陷入瓶颈。在财报电话会上，摩根大通首席财务官Jeremy Barnum承认，银行正处于投资支出“加速发展的时刻”，“部分原因是市场竞争激烈”，“尤其是来自新进入者的竞争”。市场对此反应消极，财报发布后，摩根大通股价下跌超6%。投资者担心巨额的支出可能使公司无法在2022年乃至2023年实现ROTCE达到17%的财务目标，相关细节的缺失也使投资者感到沮丧。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161121":0.9,"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1740,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}