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Iris俊

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- Iris俊Iris俊
  ·2023-04-07
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- Iris俊Iris俊
  ·2022-12-16
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  Yu Minhong has made shareholders a lot of money this year.
  最为熟悉的投资标的往往最容易被忽略，它来源于常识又取决于契机。
  Yu Minhong has made shareholders a lot of money this year.
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- Iris俊Iris俊
  ·2022-11-22
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  Overnight, a piece of news caused a complete upheaval in international oil prices.
  摘要：据媒体报道，沙特和其他OPEC成员国考虑增产至多50万桶/日。油价应声暴跌，一度跌6%。不过此后沙特否认相关报道，沙特能源大臣表示，目前每天减产200万桶的做法将持续到2023年底，随时准备在必
  Overnight, a piece of news caused a complete upheaval in international oil prices.
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- Iris俊Iris俊
  ·2022-11-18
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  Last Night and This Morning | Hawkish rhetoric pressured the Nasdaq down 0.35%, while Chinese concept stocks bucked the trend and surged!
  导语①鹰派论调施压，美股全线收跌，中概股逆市大涨；②黄金、原油携手下跌，美油重挫近5%；③英国“放大招”：加税140亿英镑；④法国财长当面声讨美国法案。一、海外市场1、美联储官员持续打压市场情绪美股收
  Last Night and This Morning | Hawkish rhetoric pressured the Nasdaq down 0.35%, while Chinese concept stocks bucked the trend and surged!
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- Iris俊Iris俊
  ·2022-11-01
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  Wall Street rallied in unison; JPMorgan Chase: The rate hike cycle will end in early 2023.
  这一次，美股还会被鹰派央行浇灭希望吗？
  Wall Street rallied in unison; JPMorgan Chase: The rate hike cycle will end in early 2023.
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- Iris俊Iris俊
  ·2022-10-28
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- Iris俊Iris俊
  ·2022-10-10
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- Iris俊Iris俊
  ·2022-10-08
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- Iris俊Iris俊
  ·2022-10-01
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- Iris俊Iris俊
  ·2022-09-22
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21:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Yu Minhong has made shareholders a lot of money this year.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139717344","media":"36氪","summary":"最为熟悉的投资标的往往最容易被忽略，它来源于常识又取决于契机。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhang Ziyi</p><p>The most familiar investment targets are often the easiest to overlook; they come from common sense and depend on the opportunity.</p><p>For investors this year, losses are the norm, and recovering losses is even more difficult. Hong Kong stocks fell by as much as 16%, with personal losses even greater.</p><p>Lin He was an exception; he entered the market at a high price, buying at HK$25 early last year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">New Oriental online</a>The stock (of East Buy' parent company) once suffered losses of over 80%, but now it has gained over a million yuan. Same bet<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Another online investor earned more than 20 million yuan with a cost of 4 million yuan.</p><p>\"It's rare to encounter a stock like this in a lifetime; its price increased more than tenfold in just a few months. It made me reflect every day. Most people are always watching from the sidelines, and very few dare to place bets...\" Zhu Sheng, who once tried to \"buy the dip\" at New Oriental Online, said...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>He concluded.</p><p>As of press time, New Oriental Online's stock price has increased by 705% in the past year, with its share price falling as low as HK$2.84 and rising as high as HK$46.8.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6c97a17510781e8ab3fd2a2770aa96\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For New Oriental Online and its investors, this has been a rollercoaster year, from troughs to peaks. Because of this contrast, several Hong Kong stock investors told 36Kr that New Oriental Online is their most profitable stock this year, not only making up for their investment losses this year, but also generating considerable profits. The lowest returns are in the millions, while the highest are unrealized profits exceeding ten million.</p><p>After all, after the \"double reduction policy\" was implemented in July last year, the businesses of countless education and training institutions vanished in an instant, and New Oriental, which has spanned several cycles in the education industry, was no exception. No one could have predicted that a year later, New Oriental Online's stock price would soar sevenfold due to the huge success of its \"East Buy\" live stream.</p><p>So why is New Oriental Online, a company whose core business has suddenly disappeared, whose stock price has plummeted, and whose future is uncertain, able to allow so many people to seize wealth? Why these investors? Besides their luck in choosing the right targets and their investment courage, how did they overcome the industry downturn and achieve profitability this year?</p><p><b>Is there still hope after a sharp decline to despair?</b></p><p>Perhaps Lin He never imagined that the stock market crash he experienced eight years ago would sow the seeds for him to continue investing in New Oriental Online.</p><p>In January last year, New Oriental Online's stock price was still hovering around HK$20, when Lin He made his first purchase. For the next seven consecutive months, he increased his position every month. “The cost was high when I first bought it, around HK$25, so I would buy New Oriental Online whenever I had money. Seventy to eighty percent of the people who bought stocks with me left...” Lin He said.</p><p>It would be strange if they didn't leave; throughout 2021, New Oriental Online's stock price fell by 81.04%. Lin He, who entered the market at 25 yuan, not only stood at the peak of his stock price, but also faced the reality of investment losses exceeding 80%, requiring a 4-5 times increase to break even.</p><p>Faced with plummeting stock prices, Lin He, who consciously had a strong gambling instinct, stayed behind. \"I started trading stocks in 2015, and I experienced a stock market crash as soon as I entered... I haven't made much money trading Hong Kong stocks in recent years. A 40% to 50% drop is nothing to me...\"</p><p>Ironically, when he invested in New Oriental Online, Lin He, who was in the startup stage, was looking to adjust his investment style from \"bottom-fishing\" to long-term investment, investing in some companies that he considered qualified and in their growth stage. New Oriental Online's young management team was an important reason for his investment. “Their president is about my age. I originally wanted to spend some money to learn how to manage a company from them. If the stock price fell, I would consider it a ‘tuition fee’.”</p><p>Clearly, having paid his \"tuition\" for a long time, he didn't want to \"buy at the bottom\" and became passively \"buy at the bottom\".</p><p>Although the methods of buying at the bottom are different, the underlying logic is similar. Zhu Sheng is a proactive \"bottom-fishing\" entrant. As a We Media blogger, he understands and pays attention to the managers of different companies. The \"moral standards of the management\" and the values of the founders are important criteria for his judgment when investing.</p><p>In the second half of last year, New Oriental Online laid off more than 40,000 employees, leased 1,500 teaching sites, and donated only 80,000 sets of desks and chairs to rural schools... A series of news reports coupled with a falling stock price led Zhu Sheng to decide to enter the market.</p><p>\"I admire Yu Minhong. These news reports show that he is a responsible entrepreneur, unlike those companies that ran away. I think Yu Minhong himself is worth at least 10 billion yuan in market value...\"</p><p>Zhu Sheng began buying shares of New Oriental Online between the end of February and March this year. At that time, the company's stock price had already fallen to around HK$4.88 per share. Zhu Sheng bought more than 100,000 shares, spending between HK$500,000 and HK$400,000. Yu Minhong's previous shareholding increase also led him to judge that New Oriental Online's stock price may have bottomed out, and the founder has feelings for and confidence in the company.</p><p>For most Chinese people, Yu Minhong is a well-known entrepreneur created by the times. He and his New Oriental, along with the study abroad craze they created together, are also memorable. \"Learning English\" is an important hallmark of New Oriental, and all of this clearly needs to change after July 2021.</p><p>In less than three months, Yu Minhong has come up with a new development direction for New Oriental's transformation. This path stems from an issue that he has been concerned about and worried about for many years, and it was already evident in the fifth season of \"Thirteen Invitations\". The keyword he mentioned most often was \"rural areas\", and he thought about how to provide short-term but important assistance to rural areas.</p><p>On November 7, 2021, Yu Minhong announced during a live stream that New Oriental plans to establish a large-scale agricultural platform in the future. He and hundreds of teachers will use live-streaming e-commerce to integrate upstream and downstream resources and help...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>Sales enable farmers to transform their careers, encourage young farmers to return to rural areas, and allow more left-behind children to grow up with their parents, thus supporting rural revitalization.</p><p>New Oriental began discussing its transformation into live-streaming e-commerce in September and October last year. Dong Yuhui, who is now very popular, decided to resign after learning that he was going to transform into live-streaming e-commerce. At that time, Sun Dongxu, executive director and CEO of New Oriental Online, persuaded him to stay, saying, \"When things are difficult, believe that the team is united. As we move forward, perhaps we will find a direction.\"</p><p>It is evident that even Sun Dongxu is not so sure whether the path of live-streaming e-commerce is feasible. Even some media outlets are not very optimistic about it. The Economic Daily once published a commentary titled \"New Oriental Should Not Copy Li Jiaqi,\" which stated that \"As one of the leading companies in the after-school education and training industry, New Oriental's transformation is of trendsetting significance. Simply jumping from one quick-money industry to another is probably not the best example.\"</p><p>Amidst much discussion about New Oriental's online transformation, Lin He became one of the earliest fans of the \"East Buy\" live stream. As an investor, he wanted to see how New Oriental's transformation into a live-streaming e-commerce platform would develop.</p><p>To the outside world, any of Yu Minhong's actions will be closely linked to the listed company. To live up to his investors' expectations, Yu Minhong also cast his vote with real money. In mid-November last year, he spent HK$24.99 million in two days to increase his holdings in New Oriental Online by a total of 3.572 million shares, raising his shareholding ratio from 4.63% to 4.98%.</p><p>Yu Minhong's increased shareholding once boosted New Oriental Online's stock price. On November 30 alone, the company's stock price rose by 90.06% in a single day, from the opening price of HK$4.19 per share to HK$8.12 per share. This increase in holdings also strengthened Lin He's confidence in continuing to hold the stock.</p><p>Even when he first watched East Buy, he wasn't sure. \"I didn't understand the path of live-streaming shopping at the time, but I was optimistic about the direction of doing agriculture, and my entrepreneurship is also in this direction, and the country will definitely support it. Moreover, Yu Minhong himself is still willing to lead the company to start a business together at the age of 60. Regardless of whether this thing succeeds or not, I will not find another investment target similar to New Oriental Online.\" The company's management team is also young and has clear equity structure. While the stock price was falling, Yu Minhong increased his holdings. He must have more development ideas for New Oriental. Following them is equivalent to venture capital. Lin He explained the investment strategy to review at the time.</p><p><b>The stock price skyrocketed, surging nearly sevenfold in a week.</b></p><p>The road to turning things around against the odds is fraught with hardship and twists and turns. In the six months since East Buy Live began, New Oriental Online's stock price has fallen by nearly 40%. New Oriental Online, which has been struggling to navigate the path of live-streaming e-commerce, is stuck in a slump.</p><p>On May 31, after New Oriental Online opened, its share price once fell to a low of HK$2.84 per share since its listing. The live streaming room in East Buy has been lukewarm for more than half a year, and sales have stagnated.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>Top 100 in the internal rankings.</p><p>Lin He, who adheres to the \"venture capital\" mentality, is one of the earliest die-hard fans of East Buy. Every night, he would discuss the effect of the live stream and areas for improvement with other fans in the group, leave messages for Dong Yuhui and Sun Dongxu, and discuss the direction of the live stream.</p><p>“They were all quite anxious at the time. There were very few people in the live stream, and the effect was very poor. We often left messages to encourage them, and we even discussed with them how to light the live stream... When the live stream had just broken 1,000 followers, everyone was very excited.”</p><p>At this time, Lin He had already held shares in New Oriental Online for a year and a half. When New Oriental Online's stock price fell to around HK$3, Zhu Sheng chose to exit the market, selling half of his shares.</p><p>This became his biggest regret. “I entered the market at around five yuan, which was already very low, but it kept falling, which really annoyed me. The stock price fluctuates so much, and when it fluctuates, people panic and are more likely to make mistakes.”</p><p>Less than a month after Zhu Sheng sold off his shares, his East Buy live stream suddenly became a hit, and New Oriental Online's stock price surged.</p><p>On June 9, the total number of followers in the East Buy live stream exceeded one million, and seven days later the number of followers exceeded ten million. According to data from ByteDance, on June 13, the highest number of viewers in a single live stream in East Buy was 7.717 million, and the sales volume of a single live stream exceeded 10 million for a consecutive period from June 10 to 13.</p><p>The soaring sales also caused the stock price to rise by 554.46% in a week, from a starting closing price of HK$4.37 per share to a closing price of HK$28.6 per share.</p><p>In just one week, New Oriental Online's stock price soared, and its live streaming room attracted increasing attention. No one knows whether East Buy' popularity is flash in the pan or can be sustained in the long run, or whether the company's stock price can continue to be supported by live streaming alone.</p><p>The second largest shareholder was the first to withdraw.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>。 On June 15, Tencent sold 35.6125 million shares at an average price of HK$9.6; The next day, another 38.9914 million shares were sold. After two reductions in holdings, Tencent's shareholding plummeted from 9.04% to 1.58%. It's practically a clearance sale.</p><p>Later, securities firms became bearish. On June 17,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>A research report downgrading New Oriental Online's rating was released: \"New Oriental Online's current valuation requires an average daily GMV of nearly 30 million yuan and a 35-fold P/E for its live-streaming e-commerce business, which is too aggressive.\"</p><p>“The stock price rose very fast every day that week, and you basically had no time to think about it. I watched helplessly as the stock price rose from three yuan to ten yuan. All my friends told me to sell first and then buy, including the fan group I joined earliest. Everyone was discussing what to do. I definitely couldn’t convince myself, afraid of selling cheaply, after all, my holding costs were high…” Lin He said.</p><p>The continuous decline in New Oriental Online's stock price did not make Lin He anxious or confused; on the contrary, the soaring stock price left him at a loss.</p><p>On June 20, Lin He chose to sell his stock and exit the market. After holding New Oriental Online for a year and a half, he experienced the lowest point in the stock price and made a profit of 1.72 million yuan.</p><p>During Lin He's exit, professional investor Yang Tian entered the market. He bought 10% of the stock at around HK$9, and the next day, when the stock price was still rising, he increased his holdings to 50%. Yang Tian's confidence in increasing his holdings stems from his belief that the stock price will continue to rise due to the scarcity of live streaming rooms in East Buy.</p><p><b>Invest in entrepreneurs, not just businesses</b></p><p>New Oriental Online's stock price did not disappoint Yang Tian's confidence, and it even did not disappoint the late entrants in the second half of the year.</p><p>A week after its stock price surged, New Oriental Online's stock price plummeted from HK$20 to just over HK$10. Lisa, who has a background in finance, bought it at around HK$16, and Zhu Sheng also bought it again at this time. Regardless of whether they enter the market sooner or later, or repeatedly, they will share in the wealth brought about by investing in New Oriental Online. The stock price, like the popularity of the East Buy live stream, soared in the second half of the year.</p><p>From June 1 to December 13, the company started at a closing price of HK$3.7 per share and ended at a closing price of HK$42.6 per share, representing a gain of 1051.35% during the period.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The report states that since June 2022, the cumulative GMV of East Buy Douyin accounts has reached 4.11 billion yuan. according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601108\">caitong securities</a>It is estimated that the total GMV of New Oriental's online live-streaming e-commerce business is expected to reach 9.994 billion yuan in 2023, generating approximately 2.67 billion yuan in revenue.</p><p>East Buy pioneered a content-driven sales model based on \"knowledge-based e-commerce.\" At that time, top Taobao livestreamers were in a period of suspension, and Luo Yonghao, the core livestreamer of the \"Make Friends\" livestream room on Douyin, withdrew from starting his own business. The traffic in the live-streaming e-commerce market was very scattered. \"Learning English\" was once the cornerstone of New Oriental Online's development, and it has once again evolved into a unique content live streaming format for \"bilingual sales\".</p><p>Yang Tian once held a full stake in New Oriental Online. His courage to do so stemmed from the scarcity of live streaming rooms in East Buy. While watching live streams and participating in shopping, he realized that East Buy wanted to be more than just a live streaming room, but an agricultural technology platform. In the six months of its booming popularity, its own product categories continued to increase, and the supply chain was rapidly built.</p><p>Based on data from Chanmama, it is roughly estimated that in October, the number of self-operated products in East Buy accounted for approximately 20%-30%, and the GMV (estimated) accounted for approximately 30%-40%. The company adds 5-10 new self-operated products every month, and the selected self-operated products are mainly agricultural products.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528de24932f05a4fbbafc9cfd53ae0e1\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a4fb1bf59336d228f003f0bdb459d1\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“The consumption frequency of agricultural products is very high, and the repurchase rate of East Buy’s own products is very good, with repurchases occurring more than ten or even dozens of times a year. Live-streaming e-commerce is an asset-light business, and its gross profit margin will be very high in the future. Moreover, they are not satisfied with this. The establishment of their own brands and the exploration of the live-streaming account (referring to ‘beautiful life’) matrix have given it more room for development,” Yang Tian analyzed.</p><p>Lisa from her own participation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startup company</a>Through my experience, I saw the potential of New Oriental Online. \"Their team is very mature and has developed smoothly in the past six months, which is rare among startups. They are constantly making breakthroughs in their live streaming business, with more and more diverse formats, and their content live streaming methods can also retain people who don't like to scroll through Douyin.\"</p><p>Lisa believes that the explosive popularity of East Buy live streaming rooms also reflects the trend of downgraded consumption among the urban middle class. \"I used to buy seven or eight yuan worth of imported milk for my child, but now I buy three or four yuan worth of domestic organic milk in the live stream. The quality is also very good.\"</p><p>Meanwhile, New Oriental Online's past experience in online education and its talent pool gave Lisa more confidence. \"It turns out that New Oriental Online does online education, and teaching and e-commerce explanations are somewhat similar. Over the years of educational experience, it has a huge talent pool and training system, and there will never be a shortage of live streamers. It has great potential.\"</p><p>Live streaming data fraud could very well become the Achilles' heel of live streaming e-commerce companies, and here Yang Tian, Lisa, and Lin He all believe in New Oriental Online's management's promise not to buy traffic.</p><p>“Both Yu Minhong and Sun Dongxu have said they won’t buy traffic. I believe they can do it based on the reputation their companies have built up over the years. If they can’t, they’re not Yu Minhong anymore,” Yang Tian said.</p><p>Among the investors interviewed by 36Kr, Yu Minhong himself is indispensable when it comes to investing in New Oriental Online.</p><p>Investment guru Duan Yongping once wrote:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d67aca388e7175dde2ccea082a6664d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding his investment in New Oriental Online, Zhu Sheng repeatedly conducted review afterward. In his view, due to his uncertainty, the potential return on his investment in New Oriental Online had increased from several million yuan to hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"This is really a big lesson.”</p><p>Initially, he bought the stock because he recognized Yu Minhong's ability to \"create value\" as an entrepreneur. When the stock price plummeted, Yu Minhong did not change, nor did his direction in live-streaming e-commerce. Even though New Oriental Online's stock price plummeted in the first half of the year, there is no possibility of liquidation.</p><p>\"Investing tests your judgment at the beginning and your mindset in the middle. I thought my mindset was better than my judgment, but it turns out I overestimated my mindset. My actions in the middle went against my original intention. How many times in your life can you encounter such an investment target?\"</p><p>For Yang Jiu and Lisa, their harvest only began in June. In just six months of investing in New Oriental Online, Lisa achieved seven-figure returns exceeding one million yuan, making up for losses from investing in other stocks.</p><p>Yang Tian's unrealized profits are even greater because he also manages some stocks for others. He told 36Kr, \"The unrealized profits from my current positions are enough to buy a house in Shenzhen. My own profits aren't that much, after all, I suffered losses in the first half of the year, but of course I made a profit.\" In Shenzhen, a slightly larger house starts at tens of millions of yuan.</p><p>After selling a portion in June, Lin He re-entered the market. The investment in New Oriental Online has also made up for his other investment losses this year. The total profit from four sales reached 2.5844 million yuan, and the current paper profit is also one million yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d89086d959a9edca0a628e7553ee85\" tg-width=\"402\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There are countless stories of wealth creation. One netizen wrote: \"I previously followed a netizen who invested 4 million yuan in New Oriental Online and made 20 million yuan. Currently, the market value of his holdings is 25 million yuan... This person is so impressive. When New Oriental surged to 30 yuan, he sold it at 28 yuan and predicted to buy it back at 15 yuan. Later, it fell to 15 yuan to buy it back, and now it has risen to 40 yuan. That's really impressive.\"</p><p>For both investors and the capital market, New Oriental Online has been a legendary company this year. It experienced the lowest period of its stock price, but also forged a new business direction in just one year.</p><p>It even brings investors a completely new investment experience. Lin He, Lisa, Zhu Sheng, and Yang Tian used to neither watch Douyin nor participate in live-streaming shopping, but East Buy changed their lifestyles. Lin He and Lisa no longer buy their daily necessities from large supermarkets, but instead purchase all their daily necessities from East Buy live streaming rooms.</p><p>Now, Lin He watches East Buy' live stream for twenty minutes every morning, buys books in the live stream room regularly every week, and watches the same streamers' schedules. \"I don't just watch their live streams because I invested in their stocks, but I have a deep affection for them.\"</p><p>Of the Hong Kong stocks Lin He currently holds, New Oriental Online accounts for 80% of his position, while the remaining 20% are just zombie stocks that have been suspended from trading or kicked out of the Hong Kong Stock Connect program.</p><p>Yang Tian is also very satisfied with the investment in New Oriental Online. \"It's not just about making money, but because you like it and it meets your expectations.\"</p><p>In the business world, there are very few stories of turnarounds. For businesses, difficulties are not necessarily temporary. The core of a turnaround lies in respecting the logic of business operations and the laws of business. Only in this way can they find hope in despair.</p><p><i>(At the request of the interviewees, Lin He, Zhu Sheng, Lisa, and Yang Tian are all pseudonyms in this article.)</i></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"36k","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Yu Minhong has made shareholders a lot of money this year.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nYu Minhong has made shareholders a lot of money this year.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">36氪</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-12-15 21:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Zhang Ziyi</p><p>The most familiar investment targets are often the easiest to overlook; they come from common sense and depend on the opportunity.</p><p>For investors this year, losses are the norm, and recovering losses is even more difficult. Hong Kong stocks fell by as much as 16%, with personal losses even greater.</p><p>Lin He was an exception; he entered the market at a high price, buying at HK$25 early last year.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">New Oriental online</a>The stock (of East Buy' parent company) once suffered losses of over 80%, but now it has gained over a million yuan. Same bet<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">New Oriental</a>Another online investor earned more than 20 million yuan with a cost of 4 million yuan.</p><p>\"It's rare to encounter a stock like this in a lifetime; its price increased more than tenfold in just a few months. It made me reflect every day. Most people are always watching from the sidelines, and very few dare to place bets...\" Zhu Sheng, who once tried to \"buy the dip\" at New Oriental Online, said...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRKR\">36Kr</a>He concluded.</p><p>As of press time, New Oriental Online's stock price has increased by 705% in the past year, with its share price falling as low as HK$2.84 and rising as high as HK$46.8.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de6c97a17510781e8ab3fd2a2770aa96\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>For New Oriental Online and its investors, this has been a rollercoaster year, from troughs to peaks. Because of this contrast, several Hong Kong stock investors told 36Kr that New Oriental Online is their most profitable stock this year, not only making up for their investment losses this year, but also generating considerable profits. The lowest returns are in the millions, while the highest are unrealized profits exceeding ten million.</p><p>After all, after the \"double reduction policy\" was implemented in July last year, the businesses of countless education and training institutions vanished in an instant, and New Oriental, which has spanned several cycles in the education industry, was no exception. No one could have predicted that a year later, New Oriental Online's stock price would soar sevenfold due to the huge success of its \"East Buy\" live stream.</p><p>So why is New Oriental Online, a company whose core business has suddenly disappeared, whose stock price has plummeted, and whose future is uncertain, able to allow so many people to seize wealth? Why these investors? Besides their luck in choosing the right targets and their investment courage, how did they overcome the industry downturn and achieve profitability this year?</p><p><b>Is there still hope after a sharp decline to despair?</b></p><p>Perhaps Lin He never imagined that the stock market crash he experienced eight years ago would sow the seeds for him to continue investing in New Oriental Online.</p><p>In January last year, New Oriental Online's stock price was still hovering around HK$20, when Lin He made his first purchase. For the next seven consecutive months, he increased his position every month. “The cost was high when I first bought it, around HK$25, so I would buy New Oriental Online whenever I had money. Seventy to eighty percent of the people who bought stocks with me left...” Lin He said.</p><p>It would be strange if they didn't leave; throughout 2021, New Oriental Online's stock price fell by 81.04%. Lin He, who entered the market at 25 yuan, not only stood at the peak of his stock price, but also faced the reality of investment losses exceeding 80%, requiring a 4-5 times increase to break even.</p><p>Faced with plummeting stock prices, Lin He, who consciously had a strong gambling instinct, stayed behind. \"I started trading stocks in 2015, and I experienced a stock market crash as soon as I entered... I haven't made much money trading Hong Kong stocks in recent years. A 40% to 50% drop is nothing to me...\"</p><p>Ironically, when he invested in New Oriental Online, Lin He, who was in the startup stage, was looking to adjust his investment style from \"bottom-fishing\" to long-term investment, investing in some companies that he considered qualified and in their growth stage. New Oriental Online's young management team was an important reason for his investment. “Their president is about my age. I originally wanted to spend some money to learn how to manage a company from them. If the stock price fell, I would consider it a ‘tuition fee’.”</p><p>Clearly, having paid his \"tuition\" for a long time, he didn't want to \"buy at the bottom\" and became passively \"buy at the bottom\".</p><p>Although the methods of buying at the bottom are different, the underlying logic is similar. Zhu Sheng is a proactive \"bottom-fishing\" entrant. As a We Media blogger, he understands and pays attention to the managers of different companies. The \"moral standards of the management\" and the values of the founders are important criteria for his judgment when investing.</p><p>In the second half of last year, New Oriental Online laid off more than 40,000 employees, leased 1,500 teaching sites, and donated only 80,000 sets of desks and chairs to rural schools... A series of news reports coupled with a falling stock price led Zhu Sheng to decide to enter the market.</p><p>\"I admire Yu Minhong. These news reports show that he is a responsible entrepreneur, unlike those companies that ran away. I think Yu Minhong himself is worth at least 10 billion yuan in market value...\"</p><p>Zhu Sheng began buying shares of New Oriental Online between the end of February and March this year. At that time, the company's stock price had already fallen to around HK$4.88 per share. Zhu Sheng bought more than 100,000 shares, spending between HK$500,000 and HK$400,000. Yu Minhong's previous shareholding increase also led him to judge that New Oriental Online's stock price may have bottomed out, and the founder has feelings for and confidence in the company.</p><p>For most Chinese people, Yu Minhong is a well-known entrepreneur created by the times. He and his New Oriental, along with the study abroad craze they created together, are also memorable. \"Learning English\" is an important hallmark of New Oriental, and all of this clearly needs to change after July 2021.</p><p>In less than three months, Yu Minhong has come up with a new development direction for New Oriental's transformation. This path stems from an issue that he has been concerned about and worried about for many years, and it was already evident in the fifth season of \"Thirteen Invitations\". The keyword he mentioned most often was \"rural areas\", and he thought about how to provide short-term but important assistance to rural areas.</p><p>On November 7, 2021, Yu Minhong announced during a live stream that New Oriental plans to establish a large-scale agricultural platform in the future. He and hundreds of teachers will use live-streaming e-commerce to integrate upstream and downstream resources and help...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">agricultural products</a>Sales enable farmers to transform their careers, encourage young farmers to return to rural areas, and allow more left-behind children to grow up with their parents, thus supporting rural revitalization.</p><p>New Oriental began discussing its transformation into live-streaming e-commerce in September and October last year. Dong Yuhui, who is now very popular, decided to resign after learning that he was going to transform into live-streaming e-commerce. At that time, Sun Dongxu, executive director and CEO of New Oriental Online, persuaded him to stay, saying, \"When things are difficult, believe that the team is united. As we move forward, perhaps we will find a direction.\"</p><p>It is evident that even Sun Dongxu is not so sure whether the path of live-streaming e-commerce is feasible. Even some media outlets are not very optimistic about it. The Economic Daily once published a commentary titled \"New Oriental Should Not Copy Li Jiaqi,\" which stated that \"As one of the leading companies in the after-school education and training industry, New Oriental's transformation is of trendsetting significance. Simply jumping from one quick-money industry to another is probably not the best example.\"</p><p>Amidst much discussion about New Oriental's online transformation, Lin He became one of the earliest fans of the \"East Buy\" live stream. As an investor, he wanted to see how New Oriental's transformation into a live-streaming e-commerce platform would develop.</p><p>To the outside world, any of Yu Minhong's actions will be closely linked to the listed company. To live up to his investors' expectations, Yu Minhong also cast his vote with real money. In mid-November last year, he spent HK$24.99 million in two days to increase his holdings in New Oriental Online by a total of 3.572 million shares, raising his shareholding ratio from 4.63% to 4.98%.</p><p>Yu Minhong's increased shareholding once boosted New Oriental Online's stock price. On November 30 alone, the company's stock price rose by 90.06% in a single day, from the opening price of HK$4.19 per share to HK$8.12 per share. This increase in holdings also strengthened Lin He's confidence in continuing to hold the stock.</p><p>Even when he first watched East Buy, he wasn't sure. \"I didn't understand the path of live-streaming shopping at the time, but I was optimistic about the direction of doing agriculture, and my entrepreneurship is also in this direction, and the country will definitely support it. Moreover, Yu Minhong himself is still willing to lead the company to start a business together at the age of 60. Regardless of whether this thing succeeds or not, I will not find another investment target similar to New Oriental Online.\" The company's management team is also young and has clear equity structure. While the stock price was falling, Yu Minhong increased his holdings. He must have more development ideas for New Oriental. Following them is equivalent to venture capital. Lin He explained the investment strategy to review at the time.</p><p><b>The stock price skyrocketed, surging nearly sevenfold in a week.</b></p><p>The road to turning things around against the odds is fraught with hardship and twists and turns. In the six months since East Buy Live began, New Oriental Online's stock price has fallen by nearly 40%. New Oriental Online, which has been struggling to navigate the path of live-streaming e-commerce, is stuck in a slump.</p><p>On May 31, after New Oriental Online opened, its share price once fell to a low of HK$2.84 per share since its listing. The live streaming room in East Buy has been lukewarm for more than half a year, and sales have stagnated.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">TikTok</a>Top 100 in the internal rankings.</p><p>Lin He, who adheres to the \"venture capital\" mentality, is one of the earliest die-hard fans of East Buy. Every night, he would discuss the effect of the live stream and areas for improvement with other fans in the group, leave messages for Dong Yuhui and Sun Dongxu, and discuss the direction of the live stream.</p><p>“They were all quite anxious at the time. There were very few people in the live stream, and the effect was very poor. We often left messages to encourage them, and we even discussed with them how to light the live stream... When the live stream had just broken 1,000 followers, everyone was very excited.”</p><p>At this time, Lin He had already held shares in New Oriental Online for a year and a half. When New Oriental Online's stock price fell to around HK$3, Zhu Sheng chose to exit the market, selling half of his shares.</p><p>This became his biggest regret. “I entered the market at around five yuan, which was already very low, but it kept falling, which really annoyed me. The stock price fluctuates so much, and when it fluctuates, people panic and are more likely to make mistakes.”</p><p>Less than a month after Zhu Sheng sold off his shares, his East Buy live stream suddenly became a hit, and New Oriental Online's stock price surged.</p><p>On June 9, the total number of followers in the East Buy live stream exceeded one million, and seven days later the number of followers exceeded ten million. According to data from ByteDance, on June 13, the highest number of viewers in a single live stream in East Buy was 7.717 million, and the sales volume of a single live stream exceeded 10 million for a consecutive period from June 10 to 13.</p><p>The soaring sales also caused the stock price to rise by 554.46% in a week, from a starting closing price of HK$4.37 per share to a closing price of HK$28.6 per share.</p><p>In just one week, New Oriental Online's stock price soared, and its live streaming room attracted increasing attention. No one knows whether East Buy' popularity is flash in the pan or can be sustained in the long run, or whether the company's stock price can continue to be supported by live streaming alone.</p><p>The second largest shareholder was the first to withdraw.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>。 On June 15, Tencent sold 35.6125 million shares at an average price of HK$9.6; The next day, another 38.9914 million shares were sold. After two reductions in holdings, Tencent's shareholding plummeted from 9.04% to 1.58%. It's practically a clearance sale.</p><p>Later, securities firms became bearish. On June 17,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600999\">China Merchants Securities</a>A research report downgrading New Oriental Online's rating was released: \"New Oriental Online's current valuation requires an average daily GMV of nearly 30 million yuan and a 35-fold P/E for its live-streaming e-commerce business, which is too aggressive.\"</p><p>“The stock price rose very fast every day that week, and you basically had no time to think about it. I watched helplessly as the stock price rose from three yuan to ten yuan. All my friends told me to sell first and then buy, including the fan group I joined earliest. Everyone was discussing what to do. I definitely couldn’t convince myself, afraid of selling cheaply, after all, my holding costs were high…” Lin He said.</p><p>The continuous decline in New Oriental Online's stock price did not make Lin He anxious or confused; on the contrary, the soaring stock price left him at a loss.</p><p>On June 20, Lin He chose to sell his stock and exit the market. After holding New Oriental Online for a year and a half, he experienced the lowest point in the stock price and made a profit of 1.72 million yuan.</p><p>During Lin He's exit, professional investor Yang Tian entered the market. He bought 10% of the stock at around HK$9, and the next day, when the stock price was still rising, he increased his holdings to 50%. Yang Tian's confidence in increasing his holdings stems from his belief that the stock price will continue to rise due to the scarcity of live streaming rooms in East Buy.</p><p><b>Invest in entrepreneurs, not just businesses</b></p><p>New Oriental Online's stock price did not disappoint Yang Tian's confidence, and it even did not disappoint the late entrants in the second half of the year.</p><p>A week after its stock price surged, New Oriental Online's stock price plummeted from HK$20 to just over HK$10. Lisa, who has a background in finance, bought it at around HK$16, and Zhu Sheng also bought it again at this time. Regardless of whether they enter the market sooner or later, or repeatedly, they will share in the wealth brought about by investing in New Oriental Online. The stock price, like the popularity of the East Buy live stream, soared in the second half of the year.</p><p>From June 1 to December 13, the company started at a closing price of HK$3.7 per share and ended at a closing price of HK$42.6 per share, representing a gain of 1051.35% during the period.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600837\">Haitong Securities</a>The report states that since June 2022, the cumulative GMV of East Buy Douyin accounts has reached 4.11 billion yuan. according to<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601108\">caitong securities</a>It is estimated that the total GMV of New Oriental's online live-streaming e-commerce business is expected to reach 9.994 billion yuan in 2023, generating approximately 2.67 billion yuan in revenue.</p><p>East Buy pioneered a content-driven sales model based on \"knowledge-based e-commerce.\" At that time, top Taobao livestreamers were in a period of suspension, and Luo Yonghao, the core livestreamer of the \"Make Friends\" livestream room on Douyin, withdrew from starting his own business. The traffic in the live-streaming e-commerce market was very scattered. \"Learning English\" was once the cornerstone of New Oriental Online's development, and it has once again evolved into a unique content live streaming format for \"bilingual sales\".</p><p>Yang Tian once held a full stake in New Oriental Online. His courage to do so stemmed from the scarcity of live streaming rooms in East Buy. While watching live streams and participating in shopping, he realized that East Buy wanted to be more than just a live streaming room, but an agricultural technology platform. In the six months of its booming popularity, its own product categories continued to increase, and the supply chain was rapidly built.</p><p>Based on data from Chanmama, it is roughly estimated that in October, the number of self-operated products in East Buy accounted for approximately 20%-30%, and the GMV (estimated) accounted for approximately 30%-40%. The company adds 5-10 new self-operated products every month, and the selected self-operated products are mainly agricultural products.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/528de24932f05a4fbbafc9cfd53ae0e1\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a4fb1bf59336d228f003f0bdb459d1\" tg-width=\"692\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>“The consumption frequency of agricultural products is very high, and the repurchase rate of East Buy’s own products is very good, with repurchases occurring more than ten or even dozens of times a year. Live-streaming e-commerce is an asset-light business, and its gross profit margin will be very high in the future. Moreover, they are not satisfied with this. The establishment of their own brands and the exploration of the live-streaming account (referring to ‘beautiful life’) matrix have given it more room for development,” Yang Tian analyzed.</p><p>Lisa from her own participation<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">Startup company</a>Through my experience, I saw the potential of New Oriental Online. \"Their team is very mature and has developed smoothly in the past six months, which is rare among startups. They are constantly making breakthroughs in their live streaming business, with more and more diverse formats, and their content live streaming methods can also retain people who don't like to scroll through Douyin.\"</p><p>Lisa believes that the explosive popularity of East Buy live streaming rooms also reflects the trend of downgraded consumption among the urban middle class. \"I used to buy seven or eight yuan worth of imported milk for my child, but now I buy three or four yuan worth of domestic organic milk in the live stream. The quality is also very good.\"</p><p>Meanwhile, New Oriental Online's past experience in online education and its talent pool gave Lisa more confidence. \"It turns out that New Oriental Online does online education, and teaching and e-commerce explanations are somewhat similar. Over the years of educational experience, it has a huge talent pool and training system, and there will never be a shortage of live streamers. It has great potential.\"</p><p>Live streaming data fraud could very well become the Achilles' heel of live streaming e-commerce companies, and here Yang Tian, Lisa, and Lin He all believe in New Oriental Online's management's promise not to buy traffic.</p><p>“Both Yu Minhong and Sun Dongxu have said they won’t buy traffic. I believe they can do it based on the reputation their companies have built up over the years. If they can’t, they’re not Yu Minhong anymore,” Yang Tian said.</p><p>Among the investors interviewed by 36Kr, Yu Minhong himself is indispensable when it comes to investing in New Oriental Online.</p><p>Investment guru Duan Yongping once wrote:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d67aca388e7175dde2ccea082a6664d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1192\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Regarding his investment in New Oriental Online, Zhu Sheng repeatedly conducted review afterward. In his view, due to his uncertainty, the potential return on his investment in New Oriental Online had increased from several million yuan to hundreds of thousands of yuan. \"This is really a big lesson.”</p><p>Initially, he bought the stock because he recognized Yu Minhong's ability to \"create value\" as an entrepreneur. When the stock price plummeted, Yu Minhong did not change, nor did his direction in live-streaming e-commerce. Even though New Oriental Online's stock price plummeted in the first half of the year, there is no possibility of liquidation.</p><p>\"Investing tests your judgment at the beginning and your mindset in the middle. I thought my mindset was better than my judgment, but it turns out I overestimated my mindset. My actions in the middle went against my original intention. How many times in your life can you encounter such an investment target?\"</p><p>For Yang Jiu and Lisa, their harvest only began in June. In just six months of investing in New Oriental Online, Lisa achieved seven-figure returns exceeding one million yuan, making up for losses from investing in other stocks.</p><p>Yang Tian's unrealized profits are even greater because he also manages some stocks for others. He told 36Kr, \"The unrealized profits from my current positions are enough to buy a house in Shenzhen. My own profits aren't that much, after all, I suffered losses in the first half of the year, but of course I made a profit.\" In Shenzhen, a slightly larger house starts at tens of millions of yuan.</p><p>After selling a portion in June, Lin He re-entered the market. The investment in New Oriental Online has also made up for his other investment losses this year. The total profit from four sales reached 2.5844 million yuan, and the current paper profit is also one million yuan.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7d89086d959a9edca0a628e7553ee85\" tg-width=\"402\" tg-height=\"527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>There are countless stories of wealth creation. One netizen wrote: \"I previously followed a netizen who invested 4 million yuan in New Oriental Online and made 20 million yuan. Currently, the market value of his holdings is 25 million yuan... This person is so impressive. When New Oriental surged to 30 yuan, he sold it at 28 yuan and predicted to buy it back at 15 yuan. Later, it fell to 15 yuan to buy it back, and now it has risen to 40 yuan. That's really impressive.\"</p><p>For both investors and the capital market, New Oriental Online has been a legendary company this year. It experienced the lowest period of its stock price, but also forged a new business direction in just one year.</p><p>It even brings investors a completely new investment experience. Lin He, Lisa, Zhu Sheng, and Yang Tian used to neither watch Douyin nor participate in live-streaming shopping, but East Buy changed their lifestyles. Lin He and Lisa no longer buy their daily necessities from large supermarkets, but instead purchase all their daily necessities from East Buy live streaming rooms.</p><p>Now, Lin He watches East Buy' live stream for twenty minutes every morning, buys books in the live stream room regularly every week, and watches the same streamers' schedules. \"I don't just watch their live streams because I invested in their stocks, but I have a deep affection for them.\"</p><p>Of the Hong Kong stocks Lin He currently holds, New Oriental Online accounts for 80% of his position, while the remaining 20% are just zombie stocks that have been suspended from trading or kicked out of the Hong Kong Stock Connect program.</p><p>Yang Tian is also very satisfied with the investment in New Oriental Online. \"It's not just about making money, but because you like it and it meets your expectations.\"</p><p>In the business world, there are very few stories of turnarounds. For businesses, difficulties are not necessarily temporary. The core of a turnaround lies in respecting the logic of business operations and the laws of business. Only in this way can they find hope in despair.</p><p><i>(At the request of the interviewees, Lin He, Zhu Sheng, Lisa, and Yang Tian are all pseudonyms in this article.)</i></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h09dut6uSKe6JM66RmJ-KQ\">36氪</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4df11b9e96e31cff1bc6711e946b5366","relate_stocks":{"01797":"东方甄选","09901":"新东方-S","EDU":"新东方"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/h09dut6uSKe6JM66RmJ-KQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139717344","content_text":"作者：张子怡最为熟悉的投资标的往往最容易被忽略，它来源于常识又取决于契机。对于今年投资者而言，亏损是常态，回血更是艰难。港股下跌最多达16%，个人亏损幅度更甚。林鹤成为例外，他曾高位入场，去年年初以25港元买入新东方在线（东方甄选母公司）股票，亏损一度超八成，而如今收益超百万。同样押注新东方在线的另一投资人，以400万元成本，赚到2000多万。“一辈子能遇到这样股票的机会很少，短短几个月股价翻了十几倍。它让我天天都在反思，多数人永远都在岸上看，敢于下注的人总是很少......”曾试图“抄底”新东方在线的朱生对36氪总结道。截止发稿时，新东方在线近一年的股价涨幅达705%，其股价最低跌到2.84港元，最高涨至46.8港元。对于新东方在线和其投资者而言，这是坐过山车的一年，跌过低谷也登至顶峰。正因这种反差，有多位港股投资者告诉36氪：新东方在线是其今年手上最赚钱的股票，不仅弥补今年的投资亏损，盈利更是颇为可观。最少的有百万级收益，最多浮盈逾千万。毕竟，去年7月“双减政策”落地后，无数教培机构业务顷刻间化为乌有，跨越教育行业数次周期的新东方也不外如是。只是无人能够料到，一年后，新东方在线因“东方甄选”直播间大火，股价随之暴涨，翻了7倍。那么，为什么是新东方在线，这样一家基本业务骤然消失、股价暴跌不断、前路未明的企业，能够让如此多的人攫取到财富？为什么是这些投资者，除了选对标的的运气和投资的胆识，他们如何跨过行业大跌的周期，在今年实现盈利？深跌到绝望后还有希望吗？或许林鹤也没有想到，八年前经历过的股灾，在冥冥之中为他埋下了坚持投资新东方在线的伏笔。去年1月，新东方在线股价还徘徊在20港元左右，林鹤第一次出手买入。此后连续7个月，他每个月都会加仓。“当时一开始买的时候成本高，25港元左右，所以之后一有钱就会买新东方在线。当时跟我一起买股票的人，百分之七八十的人都走了......。”林鹤说。不走才奇怪，整个2021年，新东方在线股价跌了81.04%。25元入市的林鹤不仅站在股价高点上，还面临着投资亏损超8成的现实，要回本得翻4-5倍。在跌跌不休的股价面前，自觉赌性极强的林鹤留守下来，“我2015年开始炒股，一入场就经历了股灾......这几年炒港股也没有赚到过什么钱，百分之四五十的跌幅对我不算什么了......”戏谑的是，投资新东方在线时，处于创业阶段的林鹤正想调整投资风格，从过往“抄底”变为长线投资，投资一些在他看来资质好、在成长期的公司，新东方在线年轻化的管理团队是他投资的重要原因。“他们总裁跟我差不多年龄，当初想花一些钱跟着他们学习如何管理企业，如果股价下跌，就当缴了‘学费’。”显然，“学费”缴了许久，不想“抄底”的他变成被动“抄底。抄底方式虽有不同，底层逻辑却有相似之处。朱生属于主动“抄底”进入者，作为自媒体博主的他，了解且关注着不同企业的管理者，“管理层的道德水准”、创始人的价值观是他在投资时重要的判断标准。新东方在线在去年下半年：裁员超4万人、退租教学点达1500个，捐献课桌椅仅8万套予乡村学校......一系列的新闻叠加下跌的股价让朱生决定入场。“我比较欣赏俞敏洪，这些新闻能看出他是负责任的企业家，跟那些跑路的企业不同，我觉得俞敏洪本人至少值得100亿元的市值......”朱生在今年2月底到3月之间开始买入新东方在线，公司股价在当时已经跌至4.88港元/股左右，朱生买入十几万股，耗资在50万港元到40万港元之间。此前俞敏洪的增持行为也让他判断：新东方在线的股价或许已经到了底部，创始人对这家公司有感情也有信心。对于多数国人而言，俞敏洪是被时代创造且让人耳熟能详的企业家，他和他的新东方，连同一起创造的留学热潮也让人记忆深刻。“学英语”是新东方的重要标识，这一切显然要在2021年7月之后必须被改变。不到三个月的时间，俞敏洪为新东方转型想好了新的发展方向，这条道路内生于其多年来一直关切和忧虑的议题，在《十三邀》第五季中已有端倪，他提到最多的关键词是“农村”，思考如何对农村提供短暂却重要的帮助。2021年11月7日，俞敏洪在直播时宣布，新东方未来计划成立一个大型的农业平台，自己将会和几百位老师通过直播带货，整合上下游资源，帮助农产品销售，让农民转型，让青年农民愿意回到农村，让更多的留守儿童能在父母的陪伴下成长，支持乡村振兴事业。新东方内部在去年9、10月开始讨论转型直播带货。如今大火的董宇辉当初在得知要转型直播带货后决定离职，彼时，新东方在线执行董事、行政总裁孙东旭挽留他说：“困难的时候，要相信团队凝结在一起，走着走着，兴许就有方向了。”可见，即便是孙东旭，也不那么确定直播带货的道路究竟能否行得通。甚至，有媒体也不大看好。《经济日报》就曾刊发过一则题为《新东方不应照搬李佳琦》的评论文章，文中提到“作为校外教育培训行业的龙头企业之一，新东方转型具有风向标意义。如果只是从一个挣快钱的行业跳到另一个挣快钱的行业，恐怕不是最佳示范”......新东方在线转型之路被议论纷纷之际，林鹤成为“东方甄选”直播间最早一批粉丝。作为投资者，他想看看新东方转型的直播带货道路到底如何发展。对于外界而言，俞敏洪的任何行为都将同上市公司紧密的连接在一起。为了不辜负投资人，俞敏洪也以真金白银做了投票。去年11月中旬，他在两天时间里斥资2499万港元，合计增持了新东方在线357.2万股，增持后持股比例由4.63%上升至4.98%。俞敏洪的增持行为一度拉升新东方在线的股价，仅11月30日，公司股价单日涨幅达90.06%，股价从开盘价4.19港元/股涨至8.12港元/股。这个增持行为也让林鹤坚定了他继续持有股票的信心。哪怕最初观看东方甄选时，他心中没底。“直播购物这条路我当时也看不懂，但我看好做农业的方向，我创业也是这个方向，国家肯定支持；而且俞敏洪本人，60岁还愿意带领企业共同创业，无论这件事成不成功，我也找不到第二个跟新东方在线类似的投资标的；公司的管理团队也很年轻、股权清晰。股价下跌的时候，俞敏洪却做增持，他肯定对新东方有更多的发展想法，我跟着他们一起走，相当于做风投。”林鹤对当时投资策略复盘道。股价坐火箭，一周暴涨近7倍逆风翻盘的道路艰辛与曲折亦是常态。在东方甄选直播的半年时间中，新东方在线的股价下跌近4成。磕磕绊绊摸索着直播带货之路的新东方在线，困在低谷中。5月31日，新东方在线开盘后，股价一度跌至上市以来的最低点2.84港元/股。东方甄选的直播间已经不温不火开播大半年，销售额也不在抖音内部排名榜的前100名。秉承着“风投”心态的林鹤已是东方甄选最早的铁杆粉丝，每天晚上，他会和其他粉丝在群里讨论直播间的效果、可改进的地方，给董宇辉和孙东旭留言，讨论直播的方向。“那会他们都挺焦虑，直播间人数很少，效果特差，我们常常留言鼓励他们，就连直播间的灯光怎么打我们都会跟他们一起讨论......直播间粉丝刚破1000的时候，大家都很激动。”此时，林鹤已经持有新东方在线一年半。朱生则在新东方在线股价跌到3港元左右时，选择离场，他卖出持有的一半股票。这成为他最为后悔的事情。“五块左右入场已经很低了，结果一直在跌，跌得我真的很烦。股价波动那么大，一波动的时候人就会恐慌，就容易做错。”在朱生抛售不到一个月后，东方甄选直播间突然爆火，新东方在线股价迎来暴涨。6月9日，东方甄选直播间粉丝总量破百万，7天后粉丝量突破一千万。巨量引擎数据显示，6月13日，东方甄选直播间单场最高观看量771.7万人，10-13日单场销售额连续破千万。飞涨的销售额也让股价在一周时间里涨幅达554.46%，从起始收盘价4.37港元/股涨至结束收盘价28.6港元/股。短短一周，新东方在线股价飙升，直播间引来越来越多的关注。没有人知道，东方甄选的热度是昙花一现还是能够长久支撑，以及仅靠直播间又能否持续支撑起公司股价。先退出的是二股东腾讯。6月15日，腾讯以均价9.6港元卖出3561.25万股；第二日，再卖出3899.14万股。两次减持后，腾讯的持股比例从9.04%骤降至1.58%。几乎是清仓操作。后看空的是券商。6月17日，招商证券发布下调新东方在线评级的研报：“新东方在线当前估值需要对应直播带货业务近3000万元的日均GMV及35倍市盈率，目前估值过于激进。”“那一周股价每天都上涨的非常快，你基本没有考虑的时间。我眼睁睁看着股价从三块涨到十块，我身边所有朋友都告诉我先卖再买，包括我最早加的粉丝群，大家都在讨论怎么办。我心里肯定说服不了自己，怕卖便宜了，毕竟我持仓的成本高......”林鹤说道。新东方在线股价的持续下跌没有让林鹤焦虑与迷茫，反而是暴涨的股价让他手足无措。6月20日，林鹤选择卖出股票离场，持有新东方在线一年半后，经历过股价最低点时刻，他获得了172万元的收益。在林鹤退场期间，职业投资者杨天入场，他在股价9港元左右买了10%，第二天股价仍在上涨之际他加仓至50%。杨天加仓的信心来源其看重东方甄选直播间的稀缺性，相信股价将继续上涨。投资企业家而不只是投资企业新东方在线的股价没有辜负杨天的信心，它甚至没有辜负下半年迟到的入场者。在股价暴涨一周后，新东方在线从二十港元再度滑落至十几港元，财务出身的丽莎即在16港元左右价格买入，朱生也在这时再次买入。无论入局早晚抑或反复，他们都将分享到投资新东方在线所带来的财富。股价和东方甄选直播间的热度一样，都在下半年乘风飞起。6月1日到12月13日，公司起始收盘价为3.7港元/股，结束收盘价达42.6港元/股，区间涨幅达1051.35%。海通证券发布报告称，自2022年6月以来，东方甄选抖音号累计GMV达41.1亿元。据财通证券测算，新东方在线直播电商业务的总GMV预计将在2023年达到99.94亿，并带来约26.7亿的收入。东方甄选开创了以“知识带货”为主的内容向卖货方式，彼时淘宝头部主播处于停播阶段，抖音头部主播交个朋友直播间核心主播罗永浩退出创业，直播电商市场流量十分分散。“学英语”曾是新东方在线起家发展的基石，又再次演变为“双语卖货”的特色内容直播形式。杨天一度满仓持有新东方在线，他满仓的勇气来自于看重东方甄选直播间的稀缺性，在观看直播与参与购物的过程让他感知到：东方甄选要做得不只是直播间，而是农业科技平台，在热度火爆的半年时间中，自有产品品类不断增多，供应链搭建迅速。根据蝉妈妈数据大致估算，10 月东方甄选自营品数量占比约为 20%-30%，GMV(预计)占比约为 30%-40%。公司每月新增 5-10 款自营商品，甄选自营系列商品主要为农产品类。“农产品的消费频率是很高的，而且东方甄选自有产品的复购率很不错，一年能复购十几次甚至几十次。直播带货属于轻资产业务，它未来的毛利率会很高，而且他们也不满足于这个，自营品牌的搭建、直播账号（指“美丽生活”）矩阵的探索，都让它更有发展空间。”杨天分析道。丽莎从自己参与创业公司的经历中看到新东方在线可能性。“他们的团队很成熟，这半年以来发展得很顺利，这在创业公司中很难得。直播业务上不断突破，形式越来越多样，内容直播的方式也能留住不爱刷抖音的人。”丽莎认为，东方甄选直播间的爆火也因切中了城市中产阶级消费降级的趋势。“原来我会买七八块的进口牛奶给孩子喝，现在在直播间买三四块的国产有机牛奶，它的品质也很好呀。”同时，新东方在线过往做在线教育的经历以及人才储备让丽莎更有信心。“原来新东方在线做在线教育，教学与带货讲解具有一定相似性，多年的教育经历里，它有庞大的人才库和培训体系，主播永远不会缺，潜力会很大。”直播数据造假很有可能成为直播电商企业的阿喀琉斯之踵，而在这里杨天、丽莎和林鹤都相信新东方在线管理层不买流量的承诺。“俞敏洪和孙东旭都说过不会买流量，企业这么多年累积的信誉，我相信他们可以做到，如果做不到，这也不是俞敏洪了。”杨天说，36氪访谈过的投资者中，对于新东方在线的投资绕不开俞敏洪本人。投资大佬段永平曾写道：对于新东方在线的投资，朱生事后曾反复复盘，在看来，由于自己的不确定，对新东方在线的投资收益从潜在的数百万元变成数十万元。“这真的是一个很大的教训。”最初他因为认可俞敏洪作为企业家“创造价值”的能力购买股票，在股价暴跌之际，俞敏洪并没有改变，做直播带货的方向也没有变。即便新东方在线股价上半年暴跌不止，但也不会出现清盘的可能。“投资一开始考验你的眼光，中间考验你的心态。我以为我的心态要比眼光好，事实证明，我高估了自己的心态，中间的操作违背自己的初衷，这样的投资标的你一生中，又能遇到几次呢？”对于杨九和丽莎而言，属于他们的收获从6月才刚刚开始。对新东方在线投资的半年时间，丽莎实现了七位数、超百万元的收益，弥补了其他股票的投资亏损。杨天浮盈收益更多，由于其帮他人也打理一部分股票，他告诉36氪：“现在仓位浮盈的规模可以买得了深圳一套房。我自己的话，收益没有那么多，毕竟上半年有亏损，当然是有赚。”在深圳，面积稍大的房子要千万元起步。林鹤在6月卖出过一部分后，又再次入场。对新东方在线的投资也弥补了他今年其他的投资亏损，四次卖出的总收益达258.44万元，目前的账面浮盈亦有百万元。造富的故事不胜枚举。有网友写道：“之前关注了一个网友，400万资金在新东方在线，赚了2000万，目前持仓市值2500万......这个人牛就牛在，新东方暴涨到30元时，他在28元卖了，预测15元接回，后来跌到15元接回，现在涨到了40元，真牛。”无论是对于投资者还是资本市场，新东方在线是今年颇具传奇色彩的公司。它经历股价最低的时节，也在短短一年的时间内跑出新的业务方向。它甚至给投资者带来一种全新的投资体验。林鹤、丽莎、朱生和杨天他们原先都不看抖音也不参与直播购物，东方甄选改变了他们的生活方式。林鹤和丽莎的日常用品不再去大型商超购买，而是全部购自于东方甄选直播间。如今，林鹤每天早上都会看二十分钟东方甄选的直播，每周会定期在直播间买书也会看同主播的排班，“不只是投资了他们的股票才看直播，而是对他们有很深的感情。”林鹤目前持有的港股股票中，新东方在线占其80%的仓位，剩余20%的股票仅是停牌或被踢出港股通的僵尸股。杨天也十分满意对于新东方在线的投资。“不仅仅是挣钱的原因，而是你很好它，它也很符合你的期待。在商业世界中，困境反转的故事少之又少。对于企业而言，困境不一定是暂时的，反转的核心在于要尊重商业运转的逻辑，尊重商业的法则，唯有如此，才有可能从绝望中找到希望。（应采访对象要求，文中林鹤、朱生、丽莎、杨天均为化名。）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EDU":0.9,"01797":0.9,"09901":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9968930103,"gmtCreate":1669090625002,"gmtModify":1676538150571,"author":{"id":"3568795433177386","authorId":"3568795433177386","name":"Iris俊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ec47da6583a1a9119da0bac90adb70","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568795433177386","authorIdStr":"3568795433177386"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9968930103","repostId":"1127272004","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127272004","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669074315,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1127272004?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-22 07:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Overnight, a piece of news caused a complete upheaval in international oil prices.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127272004","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：据媒体报道，沙特和其他OPEC成员国考虑增产至多50万桶/日。油价应声暴跌，一度跌6%。不过此后沙特否认相关报道，沙特能源大臣表示，目前每天减产200万桶的做法将持续到2023年底，随时准备在必","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: According to media reports, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are considering increasing production by up to 500,000 barrels per day. Oil prices plummeted in response, falling as much as 6% at one point. However, Saudi Arabia later denied the reports, with the Saudi Energy Minister stating that the current production cut of 2 million barrels per day will continue until the end of 2023, and that Saudi Arabia is ready to further cut production if necessary. Oil prices narrowed their decline significantly, and at one point recovered all lost ground. According to media reports,<b>Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are considering increasing crude oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ will meet on December 4.</b></p><p>Affected by the news, oil prices fell rapidly and continued to widen, with international oil prices extending their intraday decline to 6%, with WTI crude oil futures at $75.30 per barrel and Brent crude oil at $82.36 per barrel. Energy stocks generally fell due to the sharp drop in international oil prices.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MUR\">Murphy Oil</a>The stock heavily invested in by Buffett fell by more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>It fell by more than 6% at one point during the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRO\">Marathon Oil</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">ConocoPhillips</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>Following the decline.</p><p><b>OPEC's aforementioned production increase plan is a partial reversal from its previous meeting, in October, where it \"cut production by 2 million barrels per day\".</b>In October, OPEC+ set production cut targets for oil supplies in November and December. The October production cut decision had a smaller impact on global crude oil supply than the headline figures, as several countries' oil production was already far below their quotas, with the actual production cut calculated to be approximately 880,000 barrels per day.</p><p><b>The timing of OPEC+ considering increasing production is unusual.</b>Usually, increased production will lower oil prices, and recently, the crude oil market has been quite sluggish. Last Friday, the crude oil futures curve underwent a significant change, with a premium appearing during the session for the first time in a year. Since 2022, WTI crude oil futures have been generally at a discount, peaking in the second quarter. Since late July, the far-month discount on crude oil has narrowed significantly, indicating a significant easing of expectations of relatively tight supply and highlighting that oil prices are significantly weaker than in the first half of the year.</p><p><b>While increasing production during a period of low oil prices may seem \"unbelievable,\" several important factors support OPEC's consideration of increasing production. These include the impending G7 price cap on Russian oil, easing tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia, peak seasonal oil demand in winter, and calls within OPEC for increased production.</b></p><p><b>However, Saudi Arabia subsequently denied the media reports.</b>Saudi Arabia also stated that it is ready to further reduce production if necessary. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a statement released by the Saudi Press Agency:<b>\"OPEC+'s current production cut of 2 million barrels per day will continue until the end of 2023. We are ready to intervene if further measures are needed to balance supply and demand through production cuts.\"</b></p><p><b>The UAE energy minister subsequently denied the media reports.</b>They stated that they are discussing with other OPEC+ member countries the possibility of extending the production cut agreement to the end of 2023, remain committed to OPEC+'s goal of balancing the oil market, and will support any decision to achieve this goal.</p><p><b>Oil prices narrowed their losses significantly, recovering all losses at one point during the session. U.S. crude oil rebounded above $80, while Monday's intraday low was only $75.27.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7125fb4318ccfe3234526997a52c84\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>G7 price ceiling for Russian oil</b></p><p><b>This week, the G7 is set to announce a price cap on Russian oil exports, with restrictions expected to take effect on December 5.</b>Previous reports generally pointed to the upper limit of Russian oil prices being between $40 and $60 per barrel, roughly equivalent to Russia's oil production costs before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although several sources familiar with the matter said it might be higher than this level. Russia has stated that it will not sell oil to any country participating in the price cap.</p><p>Market analysts predict that the G7's price cap on Russian oil could potentially squeeze Russian crude out of the market, driving up oil prices.</p><p>If OPEC+ increases production, it will supplement Russia's crude oil supply. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said last month, in response to the looming Russian oil shortage, that Saudi Arabia will supply oil to all those who need it. Market analysts point out that OPEC members have signaled to Western countries that they will step up their actions if Russian crude oil production declines.</p><p><b>The easing of tensions between the United States and Saudi</b></p><p>OPEC's production cut decision in October angered the United States. Since the beginning of this year, the Biden administration has sought to lower oil prices in order to combat high inflation in the United States. OPEC's decision to cut oil prices ahead of the midterm elections, which the Biden administration most needed, was criticized as \"politicized,\" with market analysts pointing out that the decision benefited Russia. However, Saudi Arabia insists that the production cuts are not intended to support Russia, but rather due to signs of a global economic slowdown and potentially weak oil demand.</p><p>No matter how much Saudi Arabia \"justifies\" its production cuts, relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States have plummeted due to disagreements over oil production.<b>If OPEC increases production, it will help repair its differences with the United States.</b></p><p>Days before news broke that OPEC was considering increasing crude oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day, CCTV News reported that the U.S. government claimed the Saudi Crown Prince enjoyed immunity in the Khashoggi case. On November 18 local time, the US government decided to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>In the lawsuit filed by the fiancée of reporter Jamal Khashoggi against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed should enjoy immunity. Previously, it was believed that Mohammed was suspected of involvement in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.</p><p><b>Peak seasonal oil demand in winter</b></p><p>OPEC representatives also stated that the current consideration of increasing crude oil production is a response to the expected increase in oil consumption during the winter.<b>Typically, oil consumption increases during winter.</b>Compared to the average level in 2022, oil demand is expected to increase by 1.69 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, reaching 101.3 million barrels per day.</p><p><b>Calls within OPEC for increased production</b></p><p>Another factor driving the increase in production is,<b>OPEC's two main members, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, both want to produce more oil.</b>Both countries are pushing OPEC to allow them to raise their daily production ceilings, which, if approved, would increase oil production.</p><p>The UAE has long pushed to increase its production quotas, but has been rejected by Saudi Arabia. The UAE's strategy is to sell as much crude as possible before demand for oil dries up. Iraq is OPEC's second-largest crude oil producer. Earlier this month, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani said he would discuss new quotas with other member countries at the next meeting.</p><p>Discussions on OPEC production quotas have been stalled for months. Delegates said the idea faced opposition from some member states because many countries could not meet their current targets and raising quotas for other countries with high production capacity could raise political issues.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Overnight, a piece of news caused a complete upheaval in international oil prices.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOvernight, a piece of news caused a complete upheaval in international oil prices.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-22 07:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Abstract: According to media reports, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are considering increasing production by up to 500,000 barrels per day. Oil prices plummeted in response, falling as much as 6% at one point. However, Saudi Arabia later denied the reports, with the Saudi Energy Minister stating that the current production cut of 2 million barrels per day will continue until the end of 2023, and that Saudi Arabia is ready to further cut production if necessary. Oil prices narrowed their decline significantly, and at one point recovered all lost ground. According to media reports,<b>Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members are considering increasing crude oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ will meet on December 4.</b></p><p>Affected by the news, oil prices fell rapidly and continued to widen, with international oil prices extending their intraday decline to 6%, with WTI crude oil futures at $75.30 per barrel and Brent crude oil at $82.36 per barrel. Energy stocks generally fell due to the sharp drop in international oil prices.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MUR\">Murphy Oil</a>The stock heavily invested in by Buffett fell by more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">Western Petroleum</a>It fell by more than 6% at one point during the session.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRO\">Marathon Oil</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COP\">ConocoPhillips</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>Following the decline.</p><p><b>OPEC's aforementioned production increase plan is a partial reversal from its previous meeting, in October, where it \"cut production by 2 million barrels per day\".</b>In October, OPEC+ set production cut targets for oil supplies in November and December. The October production cut decision had a smaller impact on global crude oil supply than the headline figures, as several countries' oil production was already far below their quotas, with the actual production cut calculated to be approximately 880,000 barrels per day.</p><p><b>The timing of OPEC+ considering increasing production is unusual.</b>Usually, increased production will lower oil prices, and recently, the crude oil market has been quite sluggish. Last Friday, the crude oil futures curve underwent a significant change, with a premium appearing during the session for the first time in a year. Since 2022, WTI crude oil futures have been generally at a discount, peaking in the second quarter. Since late July, the far-month discount on crude oil has narrowed significantly, indicating a significant easing of expectations of relatively tight supply and highlighting that oil prices are significantly weaker than in the first half of the year.</p><p><b>While increasing production during a period of low oil prices may seem \"unbelievable,\" several important factors support OPEC's consideration of increasing production. These include the impending G7 price cap on Russian oil, easing tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia, peak seasonal oil demand in winter, and calls within OPEC for increased production.</b></p><p><b>However, Saudi Arabia subsequently denied the media reports.</b>Saudi Arabia also stated that it is ready to further reduce production if necessary. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said in a statement released by the Saudi Press Agency:<b>\"OPEC+'s current production cut of 2 million barrels per day will continue until the end of 2023. We are ready to intervene if further measures are needed to balance supply and demand through production cuts.\"</b></p><p><b>The UAE energy minister subsequently denied the media reports.</b>They stated that they are discussing with other OPEC+ member countries the possibility of extending the production cut agreement to the end of 2023, remain committed to OPEC+'s goal of balancing the oil market, and will support any decision to achieve this goal.</p><p><b>Oil prices narrowed their losses significantly, recovering all losses at one point during the session. U.S. crude oil rebounded above $80, while Monday's intraday low was only $75.27.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7125fb4318ccfe3234526997a52c84\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><b>G7 price ceiling for Russian oil</b></p><p><b>This week, the G7 is set to announce a price cap on Russian oil exports, with restrictions expected to take effect on December 5.</b>Previous reports generally pointed to the upper limit of Russian oil prices being between $40 and $60 per barrel, roughly equivalent to Russia's oil production costs before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, although several sources familiar with the matter said it might be higher than this level. Russia has stated that it will not sell oil to any country participating in the price cap.</p><p>Market analysts predict that the G7's price cap on Russian oil could potentially squeeze Russian crude out of the market, driving up oil prices.</p><p>If OPEC+ increases production, it will supplement Russia's crude oil supply. Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said last month, in response to the looming Russian oil shortage, that Saudi Arabia will supply oil to all those who need it. Market analysts point out that OPEC members have signaled to Western countries that they will step up their actions if Russian crude oil production declines.</p><p><b>The easing of tensions between the United States and Saudi</b></p><p>OPEC's production cut decision in October angered the United States. Since the beginning of this year, the Biden administration has sought to lower oil prices in order to combat high inflation in the United States. OPEC's decision to cut oil prices ahead of the midterm elections, which the Biden administration most needed, was criticized as \"politicized,\" with market analysts pointing out that the decision benefited Russia. However, Saudi Arabia insists that the production cuts are not intended to support Russia, but rather due to signs of a global economic slowdown and potentially weak oil demand.</p><p>No matter how much Saudi Arabia \"justifies\" its production cuts, relations between Saudi Arabia and the United States have plummeted due to disagreements over oil production.<b>If OPEC increases production, it will help repair its differences with the United States.</b></p><p>Days before news broke that OPEC was considering increasing crude oil production by up to 500,000 barrels per day, CCTV News reported that the U.S. government claimed the Saudi Crown Prince enjoyed immunity in the Khashoggi case. On November 18 local time, the US government decided to...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WPO\">The Washington Post</a>In the lawsuit filed by the fiancée of reporter Jamal Khashoggi against Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed should enjoy immunity. Previously, it was believed that Mohammed was suspected of involvement in the murder of Jamal Khashoggi.</p><p><b>Peak seasonal oil demand in winter</b></p><p>OPEC representatives also stated that the current consideration of increasing crude oil production is a response to the expected increase in oil consumption during the winter.<b>Typically, oil consumption increases during winter.</b>Compared to the average level in 2022, oil demand is expected to increase by 1.69 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year, reaching 101.3 million barrels per day.</p><p><b>Calls within OPEC for increased production</b></p><p>Another factor driving the increase in production is,<b>OPEC's two main members, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates, both want to produce more oil.</b>Both countries are pushing OPEC to allow them to raise their daily production ceilings, which, if approved, would increase oil production.</p><p>The UAE has long pushed to increase its production quotas, but has been rejected by Saudi Arabia. The UAE's strategy is to sell as much crude as possible before demand for oil dries up. Iraq is OPEC's second-largest crude oil producer. Earlier this month, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani said he would discuss new quotas with other member countries at the next meeting.</p><p>Discussions on OPEC production quotas have been stalled for months. Delegates said the idea faced opposition from some member states because many countries could not meet their current targets and raising quotas for other countries with high production capacity could raise political issues.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3675551\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa4a2187b267c2b09c55779e0a8af4ab","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3675551","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127272004","content_text":"摘要：据媒体报道，沙特和其他OPEC成员国考虑增产至多50万桶/日。油价应声暴跌，一度跌6%。不过此后沙特否认相关报道，沙特能源大臣表示，目前每天减产200万桶的做法将持续到2023年底，随时准备在必要时进一步减产。油价跌幅大幅收窄，一度收复全部失地。据媒体报道，沙特和其他OPEC成员国考虑增产原油至多50万桶/日。OPEC+将于12月4日举行会议。受消息影响，油价跌幅迅速且持续扩大，国际油价盘中跌幅扩大至6%，WTI原油期货报75.30美元/桶，布油报82.36美元/桶。受国际油价大跌影响，能源股普跌。墨菲石油跌逾5%，巴菲特重仓的西方石油盘中一度跌超6%，马拉松石油、康菲石油、英国石油跟跌。OPEC的上述增产计划，是较其上次会议、也即10月会议上“减产200万桶/日”的部分逆转。10月时，OPEC+的减产目标是为11月和12月石油供应制定的。10月的减产决议对全球原油供应的影响小于标题数字，因为几个国家的石油产量已经远低于其配额，分析计算实际减产规模为约88万桶/日。OPEC+考虑增产的时点是不寻常的。通常，增产会令油价走低，而近日，原油市场走势已经相当低迷。上周五，原油期货的曲线出现重大变化，盘中出现原油期货升水状态，是一年来首次。2022年以来，WTI原油期货整体位于贴水态势，在二季度达到峰值。7月下旬以来，原油远月贴水幅度出现明显缩窄，表明供应相对偏紧的预期明显缓解，也凸显油价走势相比上半年，明显疲弱。虽然在油价低迷期增产看似“匪夷所思”，但有几大重要因素，支撑OPEC的这一增产考量。这其中包括，七国集团（G7）对俄油的价格上限将至，美沙紧张关系的缓和，冬季季节性用油需求高峰，以及OPEC内部要求增产的呼声。不过此后沙特否认相关媒体报道。沙特方面还表示，随时准备在必要时进一步减产。沙特能源大臣Abdulaziz bin Salman在通过沙特通讯社发表的一份声明中说：“OPEC+目前每天减产200万桶的做法将持续到2023年底。如果需要采取进一步措施，通过减产来平衡供需，我们随时准备进行干预。”阿联酋能源部长随后也否认媒体报道，表示正在与OPEC+其他成员国讨论关于变更有效期至2023年底减产协议的事宜，仍致力于OPEC+平衡石油市场的目标，并将支持实现这一目标的任何决定。油价跌幅大幅收窄，盘中一度收复全部失地。美油反弹至80美元上方，而周一盘中低点仅为75.27美元。G7对俄油的价格上限本周，G7即将宣布俄罗斯石油出口价格上限，相关限制预计将于12月5日起生效。此前的消息普遍指向俄油的价格上限或在每桶40-60美元之间，基本等于俄乌冲突爆发之前俄罗斯的石油生产成本，不过多位知情人士称可能会高于这一水平。俄罗斯已表示，不会向任何参与价格上限的国家出售石油。市场分析人士预计，G7对俄油的价格上限，会潜在将俄罗斯原油挤出市场，令油价走高。OPEC+如果增产，将是对俄罗斯原油供给的补充。沙特能源部长Abdulaziz bin Salman上个月在回应迫在眉睫的俄罗斯石油短缺问题时表示，沙特将向所有需要的人供应石油。市场人士指出，OPEC成员国已向西方国家发出信号，如果俄罗斯原油产量下降，他们将加紧行动。美沙紧张关系的缓和OPEC之前10月的减产决议，激怒美国。今年以来，拜登政府努力寻求降低油价，以对抗美国高企的通胀。在拜登政府最需要的中期选举前降油价之际，OPEC当时选择减产，被指“政治化”，市场人士指出，相关决定有利于俄罗斯。不过沙特方面坚称，减产并不是为了支持俄罗斯，减产是由于全球经济出现放缓迹象，石油需求可能疲软。无论沙特怎样为减产“正名”，由于石油生产上的分歧，沙特和美国的关系跌至低谷。OPEC如果增产，有助于修复与美国的分歧。在OPEC考虑增产至多50万桶/日原油消息出来的前几天，据央视新闻报道，美国政府称沙特王储在卡舒吉案中享有豁免权。当地时间11月18日，美国政府决定，在《华盛顿邮报》记者贾迈勒·卡舒吉的未婚妻对沙特王储穆罕默德提起的诉讼中，沙特王储穆罕默德应该享有豁免权。此前，有人认为穆罕默德涉嫌参与对贾迈勒·卡舒吉的谋杀案。冬季季节性用油需求高峰OPEC代表们还表示，当前考虑的原油增产，是对冬季石油消费量将增加的回应。通常，石油消费量在冬季都会有所增加。与2022年的平均水平相比，预计明年第一季度石油需求将增加169万桶/日，达到1.013亿桶/日。OPEC内部要求增产的呼声另一个推动增产的因素是，OPEC的两个主要成员国伊拉克和阿联酋均希望生产更多石油。这两个国家都在推动OPEC允许他们提高日产量上限，倘若获得批准，这会增加石油产量。阿联酋长期以来一直在推动提高其产量配额，但遭到沙特的拒绝。阿联酋的策略是：在石油需求枯竭之前，尽可能多地出售原油。伊拉克是OPEC的第二大原油生产国，本月早些时候，伊拉克总理Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani表示，将在下一次会议上与其他成员国讨论新的配额。关于OPEC生产配额的讨论已搁置数月。代表们表示，这一想法面临一些成员国的反对，因为许多国家无法实现他们目前的目标，提高产能高的其他国家的配额，可能会引发政治问题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9963716838,"gmtCreate":1668756598224,"gmtModify":1676538108770,"author":{"id":"3568795433177386","authorId":"3568795433177386","name":"Iris俊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ec47da6583a1a9119da0bac90adb70","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568795433177386","authorIdStr":"3568795433177386"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9963716838","repostId":"1152673631","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152673631","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1668729859,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1152673631?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-18 08:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Last Night and This Morning | Hawkish rhetoric pressured the Nasdaq down 0.35%, while Chinese concept stocks bucked the trend and surged!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152673631","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"导语①鹰派论调施压，美股全线收跌，中概股逆市大涨；②黄金、原油携手下跌，美油重挫近5%；③英国“放大招”：加税140亿英镑；④法国财长当面声讨美国法案。一、海外市场1、美联储官员持续打压市场情绪美股收","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Introduction ① Under pressure from hawkish rhetoric, US stocks closed lower across the board, while Chinese concept stocks bucked the trend and surged. ② Gold and crude oil prices both fell, with US crude oil plunging nearly 5%; ③ The UK makes a major move: raising tariffs by £14 billion; ④ The French Finance Minister directly condemned the US bill. I. Overseas Market</p><p>1. Federal Reserve officials continued to dampen market sentiment; US stocks closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.35%.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday. Comments from Federal Reserve officials that the rate hike operation was far from over put pressure on the stock index. Investors are evaluating the latest economic data and earnings reports. Rising U.S. Treasury yields have fueled investor concerns about a U.S. economic recession. Federal Reserve officials reiterated their determination to continue fighting inflation and warned of more pain ahead. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.02%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.35%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.3%.</p><p>Most large technology stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>It fell more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>AMD rose more than 1%. The software applications and non-ferrous metals sectors saw the largest declines.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CENX\">Century Aluminum</a>McMoran Copper fell more than 6%, and McMoran Copper fell more than 2%. Consumer electronics and anti-epidemic concept stocks rose, with Qorvo up over 5% and Vaccinex up over 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>It rose by more than 2%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks bucked the trend and generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up more than 7%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 3.71%. Alibaba, JD.com, and Weibo rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It rose more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Full Truck Alliance rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Qudian</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>It fell more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell slightly.</p><p>3. Most major European stock indices closed lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.11%.</p><p>Most major European stock indices closed lower on Thursday, with Germany's DAX 30 rising 0.23%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.06%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.47%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.11%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil closed down 4.6%, hitting its lowest closing price since the end of September.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.95, or 4.6%, to settle at $81.64 a barrel, the lowest closing price for the most active contract since September 30.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.7% on Thursday.</p><p>Gold for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $12.80, or 0.7%, to settle at $1,763 an ounce. Expectations of rate hike from the Federal Reserve have driven a stronger dollar and rising Treasury Bond yields, putting pressure on gold prices.</p><p>II. Macro News</p><p>1. \"Hawk King\" Bullard: The Fed hasn't done enough and still needs further rate hike.</p><p>On Thursday (November 17) local time, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard said that rate hike has had a limited impact on inflation so far, and therefore the Fed still needs further rate hike to achieve its goal of quelling inflation.</p><p>So far this year, the Federal Reserve has entered rate hike six times, raising interest rates by a total of 375 basis points and raising the target range for the federal interest rate to 3.75%-4%, marking the central bank's most aggressive rate hike cycle since the 1980s.</p><p>2. The United States will issue guidance on the price cap for Russian oil.</p><p>A U.S. official recently stated that the government plans to issue guidelines in the coming days regarding the price cap on Russian oil, which will take effect on December 5. Mullinax, director of the U.S. Office of Sanctions Policy and Enforcement, said the government is maintaining close contact with industry and international partners on the oil price cap issue and will address the issue with flexibility. The United States, its G7 allies, and Australia plan to restrict the price of Russian seaborne oil starting December 5, with a second round of restrictions on petroleum products set to take effect on February 5 next year.</p><p>3. Federal Reserve officials took turns emphasizing rate hike, with the latest one claiming that interest rates need to reach at least 5%-5.25%.</p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the Fed needs to rate hike to \"at least\" 5%-5.25% to curb inflation. Financial markets shook in response, and investors recalibrated their expectations for peak interest rates.</p><p>After his speech on Thursday, Bullard told reporters, \"In the past, I thought 4.75%-5% was enough, but based on the current analysis, I would recommend raising it to 5%-5.25%, which is the minimum level. According to the analysis, at least this level is enough to keep interest rates in a restrictive area.\" Prior to Bullard's speech, several Federal Reserve officials had already reiterated their commitment to raising interest rates.</p><p>4. LME nickel prices fell nearly 8% again during trading after the UK released its autumn budget, implementing a combination of tax increases and spending cuts.</p><p>Last night, LME nickel continued its downward trend, falling nearly 8% as of 23:45. By the close of trading this morning, LME nickel had fallen again by about 9%, marking a two-day drop of nearly 20%.</p><p>On the evening of November 17, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt released the government's autumn budget. Hunt stated that, according to data from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the \"main reason\" for the UK's current high inflation rate is the current global situation.</p><p>Regarding personal income tax, the 45% personal income tax threshold will be reduced from £150,000 per year to £125,140. From January 1 to March 28, 2023, the UK government will increase the energy profits tax levied on oil and gas companies from 25% to 35%, and will impose a temporary tax of 45% on power companies from January 1. These measures are expected to generate £14 billion in revenue for the UK government.</p><p>5. UN Secretary-General António Guterres: All parties should take action to reach an agreement on a climate agreement.</p><p>On Thursday (November 17) local time, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on countries to \"take action\" on climate issues, overcome the \"breakdown of trust\" between rich and poor countries, reach an agreement on a climate agreement, and save the world from global warming.</p><p>Guterres told reporters, \"Now is not the time to blame each other; shirking responsibility will only lead to destruction.\" He called on all parties to take action in three key areas: effectively addressing loss and damage, narrowing the emissions gap, and fulfilling financing commitments.</p><p>6. The French Finance Minister directly condemned the Inflation Reduction Act and demanded that the Biden administration amend it.</p><p>According to multiple media reports, during the 17th G20 Leaders' Summit, French officials again warned the United States that the previously passed Inflation Reduction Act threatened the European economy and urged the Biden administration to amend the law.</p><p>On Wednesday (November 16) local time, French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told the media that the U.S. government's subsidy policy for \"Made in America\" cars will put European automakers at a competitive disadvantage and harm the European economy.</p><p>7. Industry executives: US shale oil growth slows, OPEC has regained its dominant position.</p><p>At an investor conference held in Miami, Florida on Thursday (November 17) local time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>Company CEO John Hess said that amid slowing growth in U.S. shale oil, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as the largest production regulator, has regained its dominant position.</p><p>Swing producers are typically oligopolistic suppliers of a particular commodity who control its global reserves and possess significant spare capacity. Swing producers are able to increase or decrease supply with minimal additional internal costs, thereby influencing prices and balancing markets. Typical production regulators include Saudi Arabian oil, Russian potash, and historically De Beers diamonds.</p><p>8. Pelosi: Will not run for Democratic Party leadership but will continue to serve as a member of parliament.</p><p>Pelosi's era is over. On Thursday (November 17) Eastern Time, after 20 years of leading the Democratic Party, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that she will step down as House Democratic Leader and will no longer run for Democratic leadership, but will continue to serve as a member of the House.</p><p>Previously, in the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives but retained control of the Senate. The departure of 82-year-old Pelosi is expected to lead to a major reshuffle of the House Democratic Party.</p><p>9. U.S. mortgage rates fell to 6.61%, the largest drop since 1981.</p><p>U.S. mortgage rates suffered their biggest weekly drop in nearly 41 years, retreating after a rapid rise. Freddie Mac said in a statement on Thursday that the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.61%, the lowest level in nearly two months. Last week it was 7.08%. The decline in mortgage rates follows the recent trend in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield, as official data last week showed inflation eased in October. Investors therefore expect the Federal Reserve to begin slowing rate hike in the coming months. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that it is too early to consider a pause.</p><p>10. bottom out? European car sales rose 14% year-on-year in October, marking the third consecutive month of growth.</p><p>European car sales rose for the third consecutive month in October as supply chain issues eased, but market concerns are growing that the deteriorating economic situation may deter car buyers.</p><p>Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) released Thursday showed that EU, EFTA, and UK automakers delivered a total of 910,753 vehicles last month, a 14% year-on-year increase.</p><p>III. Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2284999087\" target=\"_blank\">Alibaba's turning point is approaching: After Taobao and Tmall, Alibaba Cloud and Cainiao will take the lead.</a></p><p>On the evening of November 17, Alibaba announced its results for the quarter ended September 17, 2022. This quarter, Alibaba's revenue reached 207.176 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%; Adjusted EBITA increased by 29% year-on-year to RMB 36.164 billion, meeting market expectations. In summary, Alibaba is in a critical period of adjustment, and Cainiao and Alibaba Cloud are expected to shoulder the burden of Alibaba's next stage of growth. Among them, Cainiao's operating revenue before offsetting cross-segment transactions increased by 26% year-on-year to RMB 18.282 billion in the quarter; Alibaba Cloud's adjusted EBITA was 434 million yuan, achieving profitability for two consecutive years.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2284792387\" target=\"_blank\">Autonomous vehicles face another downturn; Volkswagen's new CEO may postpone or cancel related plans.</a></p><p>Newly appointed Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume is evaluating the autonomous vehicle project, marking the first time in his two months in office that he has revised the company's strategic direction. According to sources familiar with the matter, Bloomer may delay the Trinty autonomous vehicle project and cancel plans to build a new factory for the project near the company's headquarters. In a letter to employees from Brummer and Volkswagen CEO Thomas Schaefer, the two executives stated, \"We are taking this opportunity to review all projects and investments and determine whether they are feasible.\"</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2284496711\" target=\"_blank\">Employees at more than 100 Starbucks stores launched a strike demanding higher wages and benefits.</a></p><p>On Thursday, Eastern Time, employees at more than 100 Starbucks stores joined forces to strike in an attempt to pressure the company to raise wages and benefits. The Starbucks union said the strike occurred on Starbucks' \"Red Cup Day,\" an annual promotional event that is typically one of the busiest days of the year and is seen as a key driver of the company's fourth-quarter sales. Before the strike, the union stated, \"Starbucks' anti-union movement began in the summer of 2021, when Starbucks sent more than 100 managers, executives, and corporate representatives to monitor, threaten, and intimidate workers. Since then, Starbucks' destruction of the union has worsened.\"</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">Vale</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Signed a long-term nickel supply agreement with Canada</p><p>Vale Canada and General Motors announced on Thursday that they have signed a long-term nickel supply agreement under which Vale's Canadian factories will supply General Motors with battery-grade nickel sulfate on a long-term basis to support its rapidly growing electric vehicle production needs in North America. This move highlights Vale's market leadership as North America's largest producer of finished nickel products and its unique strategic position as the preferred supplier for the electric vehicle industry.</p><p>5. General Motors expects to sell 15 million light vehicles in the United States in 2023.</p><p>General Motors' CFO stated that the company expects to sell 15 million light vehicles in the United States in 2023. Supply chain challenges remain in 2023; We look forward to \"normalizing pricing\" in the US auto market.</p><p>6. Lithium mining giant SQM expects high lithium prices to continue in 2023, with net profit increasing tenfold.</p><p>Despite the promising long-term outlook for the lithium mining market, it faces headwinds in the short term. Chilean lithium mining giant SQM saw its net profit increase nearly tenfold year-on-year in the third quarter, driven by soaring lithium prices and record sales. Meanwhile, SQM predicts that global lithium demand will grow by 40% this year, and the rise in lithium prices will continue into 2023.</p><p>On Thursday, SQM released financial data showing that its revenue in the third quarter of this year increased by 347% year-on-year to $2.958 billion, and net profit surged nearly tenfold to $1.1 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations. Among them, revenue from its lithium mining business increased by more than 12 times.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2284185327\" target=\"_blank\">While others panic, I'm greedy; \"Sister Wood\" continues to buy cryptocurrency assets at rock-bottom prices.</a></p><p>As the FTX collapse triggered turmoil in the cryptocurrency world, Cathie Wood, nicknamed \"Sister Wood,\" continued to buy cryptocurrency assets at bargain prices, while others feared she was greedy.</p><p>On Wednesday, ARKK, the flagship fund of \"Sister Wood,\" bought nearly 164,000 shares of Coinbase, while its other ETF, Ark Fintech Innovation (ARKF), increased its holdings by about 82,000 shares of Coinbase. In addition, it also bought about 141,000 shares of Silvergate Capital.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Last Night and This Morning | Hawkish rhetoric pressured the Nasdaq down 0.35%, while Chinese concept stocks bucked the trend and surged!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLast Night and This Morning | Hawkish rhetoric pressured the Nasdaq down 0.35%, while Chinese concept stocks bucked the trend and surged!\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-11-18 08:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Introduction ① Under pressure from hawkish rhetoric, US stocks closed lower across the board, while Chinese concept stocks bucked the trend and surged. ② Gold and crude oil prices both fell, with US crude oil plunging nearly 5%; ③ The UK makes a major move: raising tariffs by £14 billion; ④ The French Finance Minister directly condemned the US bill. I. Overseas Market</p><p>1. Federal Reserve officials continued to dampen market sentiment; US stocks closed lower, with the Nasdaq down 0.35%.</p><p>U.S. stocks closed lower on Thursday. Comments from Federal Reserve officials that the rate hike operation was far from over put pressure on the stock index. Investors are evaluating the latest economic data and earnings reports. Rising U.S. Treasury yields have fueled investor concerns about a U.S. economic recession. Federal Reserve officials reiterated their determination to continue fighting inflation and warned of more pain ahead. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.02%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.35%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.3%.</p><p>Most large technology stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It fell more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>It fell more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>AMD rose more than 1%. The software applications and non-ferrous metals sectors saw the largest declines.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CENX\">Century Aluminum</a>McMoran Copper fell more than 6%, and McMoran Copper fell more than 2%. Consumer electronics and anti-epidemic concept stocks rose, with Qorvo up over 5% and Vaccinex up over 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">Eli Lilly</a>It rose by more than 2%.</p><p>2. Popular Chinese concept stocks bucked the trend and generally rose.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>Up more than 7%</p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 3.71%. Alibaba, JD.com, and Weibo rose more than 7%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">Vipshop</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>It rose more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>It rose more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQiyi</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It rose more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It rose more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">Nio</a>Full Truck Alliance rose more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">Qudian</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Missfresh</a>It fell more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">NetEase</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell slightly.</p><p>3. Most major European stock indices closed lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.11%.</p><p>Most major European stock indices closed lower on Thursday, with Germany's DAX 30 rising 0.23%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">UK FTSE 100</a>The index fell 0.06%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.47%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.11%.</p><p>4. US WTI crude oil closed down 4.6%, hitting its lowest closing price since the end of September.</p><p>West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $3.95, or 4.6%, to settle at $81.64 a barrel, the lowest closing price for the most active contract since September 30.</p><p>5. New York gold futures closed down 0.7% on Thursday.</p><p>Gold for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $12.80, or 0.7%, to settle at $1,763 an ounce. Expectations of rate hike from the Federal Reserve have driven a stronger dollar and rising Treasury Bond yields, putting pressure on gold prices.</p><p>II. Macro News</p><p>1. \"Hawk King\" Bullard: The Fed hasn't done enough and still needs further rate hike.</p><p>On Thursday (November 17) local time, St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard said that rate hike has had a limited impact on inflation so far, and therefore the Fed still needs further rate hike to achieve its goal of quelling inflation.</p><p>So far this year, the Federal Reserve has entered rate hike six times, raising interest rates by a total of 375 basis points and raising the target range for the federal interest rate to 3.75%-4%, marking the central bank's most aggressive rate hike cycle since the 1980s.</p><p>2. The United States will issue guidance on the price cap for Russian oil.</p><p>A U.S. official recently stated that the government plans to issue guidelines in the coming days regarding the price cap on Russian oil, which will take effect on December 5. Mullinax, director of the U.S. Office of Sanctions Policy and Enforcement, said the government is maintaining close contact with industry and international partners on the oil price cap issue and will address the issue with flexibility. The United States, its G7 allies, and Australia plan to restrict the price of Russian seaborne oil starting December 5, with a second round of restrictions on petroleum products set to take effect on February 5 next year.</p><p>3. Federal Reserve officials took turns emphasizing rate hike, with the latest one claiming that interest rates need to reach at least 5%-5.25%.</p><p>St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the Fed needs to rate hike to \"at least\" 5%-5.25% to curb inflation. Financial markets shook in response, and investors recalibrated their expectations for peak interest rates.</p><p>After his speech on Thursday, Bullard told reporters, \"In the past, I thought 4.75%-5% was enough, but based on the current analysis, I would recommend raising it to 5%-5.25%, which is the minimum level. According to the analysis, at least this level is enough to keep interest rates in a restrictive area.\" Prior to Bullard's speech, several Federal Reserve officials had already reiterated their commitment to raising interest rates.</p><p>4. LME nickel prices fell nearly 8% again during trading after the UK released its autumn budget, implementing a combination of tax increases and spending cuts.</p><p>Last night, LME nickel continued its downward trend, falling nearly 8% as of 23:45. By the close of trading this morning, LME nickel had fallen again by about 9%, marking a two-day drop of nearly 20%.</p><p>On the evening of November 17, British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt released the government's autumn budget. Hunt stated that, according to data from the Office for Budget Responsibility, the \"main reason\" for the UK's current high inflation rate is the current global situation.</p><p>Regarding personal income tax, the 45% personal income tax threshold will be reduced from £150,000 per year to £125,140. From January 1 to March 28, 2023, the UK government will increase the energy profits tax levied on oil and gas companies from 25% to 35%, and will impose a temporary tax of 45% on power companies from January 1. These measures are expected to generate £14 billion in revenue for the UK government.</p><p>5. UN Secretary-General António Guterres: All parties should take action to reach an agreement on a climate agreement.</p><p>On Thursday (November 17) local time, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called on countries to \"take action\" on climate issues, overcome the \"breakdown of trust\" between rich and poor countries, reach an agreement on a climate agreement, and save the world from global warming.</p><p>Guterres told reporters, \"Now is not the time to blame each other; shirking responsibility will only lead to destruction.\" He called on all parties to take action in three key areas: effectively addressing loss and damage, narrowing the emissions gap, and fulfilling financing commitments.</p><p>6. The French Finance Minister directly condemned the Inflation Reduction Act and demanded that the Biden administration amend it.</p><p>According to multiple media reports, during the 17th G20 Leaders' Summit, French officials again warned the United States that the previously passed Inflation Reduction Act threatened the European economy and urged the Biden administration to amend the law.</p><p>On Wednesday (November 16) local time, French Economy and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told the media that the U.S. government's subsidy policy for \"Made in America\" cars will put European automakers at a competitive disadvantage and harm the European economy.</p><p>7. Industry executives: US shale oil growth slows, OPEC has regained its dominant position.</p><p>At an investor conference held in Miami, Florida on Thursday (November 17) local time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">U.S. energy</a>Company CEO John Hess said that amid slowing growth in U.S. shale oil, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as the largest production regulator, has regained its dominant position.</p><p>Swing producers are typically oligopolistic suppliers of a particular commodity who control its global reserves and possess significant spare capacity. Swing producers are able to increase or decrease supply with minimal additional internal costs, thereby influencing prices and balancing markets. Typical production regulators include Saudi Arabian oil, Russian potash, and historically De Beers diamonds.</p><p>8. Pelosi: Will not run for Democratic Party leadership but will continue to serve as a member of parliament.</p><p>Pelosi's era is over. On Thursday (November 17) Eastern Time, after 20 years of leading the Democratic Party, U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced that she will step down as House Democratic Leader and will no longer run for Democratic leadership, but will continue to serve as a member of the House.</p><p>Previously, in the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats lost control of the House of Representatives but retained control of the Senate. The departure of 82-year-old Pelosi is expected to lead to a major reshuffle of the House Democratic Party.</p><p>9. U.S. mortgage rates fell to 6.61%, the largest drop since 1981.</p><p>U.S. mortgage rates suffered their biggest weekly drop in nearly 41 years, retreating after a rapid rise. Freddie Mac said in a statement on Thursday that the average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.61%, the lowest level in nearly two months. Last week it was 7.08%. The decline in mortgage rates follows the recent trend in the 10-year Treasury Bond yield, as official data last week showed inflation eased in October. Investors therefore expect the Federal Reserve to begin slowing rate hike in the coming months. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has stated that it is too early to consider a pause.</p><p>10. bottom out? European car sales rose 14% year-on-year in October, marking the third consecutive month of growth.</p><p>European car sales rose for the third consecutive month in October as supply chain issues eased, but market concerns are growing that the deteriorating economic situation may deter car buyers.</p><p>Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) released Thursday showed that EU, EFTA, and UK automakers delivered a total of 910,753 vehicles last month, a 14% year-on-year increase.</p><p>III. Company News</p><p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2284999087\" target=\"_blank\">Alibaba's turning point is approaching: After Taobao and Tmall, Alibaba Cloud and Cainiao will take the lead.</a></p><p>On the evening of November 17, Alibaba announced its results for the quarter ended September 17, 2022. This quarter, Alibaba's revenue reached 207.176 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%; Adjusted EBITA increased by 29% year-on-year to RMB 36.164 billion, meeting market expectations. In summary, Alibaba is in a critical period of adjustment, and Cainiao and Alibaba Cloud are expected to shoulder the burden of Alibaba's next stage of growth. Among them, Cainiao's operating revenue before offsetting cross-segment transactions increased by 26% year-on-year to RMB 18.282 billion in the quarter; Alibaba Cloud's adjusted EBITA was 434 million yuan, achieving profitability for two consecutive years.</p><p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2284792387\" target=\"_blank\">Autonomous vehicles face another downturn; Volkswagen's new CEO may postpone or cancel related plans.</a></p><p>Newly appointed Volkswagen Group CEO Oliver Blume is evaluating the autonomous vehicle project, marking the first time in his two months in office that he has revised the company's strategic direction. According to sources familiar with the matter, Bloomer may delay the Trinty autonomous vehicle project and cancel plans to build a new factory for the project near the company's headquarters. In a letter to employees from Brummer and Volkswagen CEO Thomas Schaefer, the two executives stated, \"We are taking this opportunity to review all projects and investments and determine whether they are feasible.\"</p><p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2284496711\" target=\"_blank\">Employees at more than 100 Starbucks stores launched a strike demanding higher wages and benefits.</a></p><p>On Thursday, Eastern Time, employees at more than 100 Starbucks stores joined forces to strike in an attempt to pressure the company to raise wages and benefits. The Starbucks union said the strike occurred on Starbucks' \"Red Cup Day,\" an annual promotional event that is typically one of the busiest days of the year and is seen as a key driver of the company's fourth-quarter sales. Before the strike, the union stated, \"Starbucks' anti-union movement began in the summer of 2021, when Starbucks sent more than 100 managers, executives, and corporate representatives to monitor, threaten, and intimidate workers. Since then, Starbucks' destruction of the union has worsened.\"</p><p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VALE\">Vale</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GM\">general motors</a>Signed a long-term nickel supply agreement with Canada</p><p>Vale Canada and General Motors announced on Thursday that they have signed a long-term nickel supply agreement under which Vale's Canadian factories will supply General Motors with battery-grade nickel sulfate on a long-term basis to support its rapidly growing electric vehicle production needs in North America. This move highlights Vale's market leadership as North America's largest producer of finished nickel products and its unique strategic position as the preferred supplier for the electric vehicle industry.</p><p>5. General Motors expects to sell 15 million light vehicles in the United States in 2023.</p><p>General Motors' CFO stated that the company expects to sell 15 million light vehicles in the United States in 2023. Supply chain challenges remain in 2023; We look forward to \"normalizing pricing\" in the US auto market.</p><p>6. Lithium mining giant SQM expects high lithium prices to continue in 2023, with net profit increasing tenfold.</p><p>Despite the promising long-term outlook for the lithium mining market, it faces headwinds in the short term. Chilean lithium mining giant SQM saw its net profit increase nearly tenfold year-on-year in the third quarter, driven by soaring lithium prices and record sales. Meanwhile, SQM predicts that global lithium demand will grow by 40% this year, and the rise in lithium prices will continue into 2023.</p><p>On Thursday, SQM released financial data showing that its revenue in the third quarter of this year increased by 347% year-on-year to $2.958 billion, and net profit surged nearly tenfold to $1.1 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations. Among them, revenue from its lithium mining business increased by more than 12 times.</p><p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2284185327\" target=\"_blank\">While others panic, I'm greedy; \"Sister Wood\" continues to buy cryptocurrency assets at rock-bottom prices.</a></p><p>As the FTX collapse triggered turmoil in the cryptocurrency world, Cathie Wood, nicknamed \"Sister Wood,\" continued to buy cryptocurrency assets at bargain prices, while others feared she was greedy.</p><p>On Wednesday, ARKK, the flagship fund of \"Sister Wood,\" bought nearly 164,000 shares of Coinbase, while its other ETF, Ark Fintech Innovation (ARKF), increased its holdings by about 82,000 shares of Coinbase. In addition, it also bought about 141,000 shares of Silvergate Capital.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152673631","content_text":"导语①鹰派论调施压，美股全线收跌，中概股逆市大涨；②黄金、原油携手下跌，美油重挫近5%；③英国“放大招”：加税140亿英镑；④法国财长当面声讨美国法案。一、海外市场1、美联储官员持续打压市场情绪美股收跌纳指跌0.35%美股周四收跌。美联储官员关于加息行动远未结束的言论令股指承压。投资者正在评估最新经济数据与财报。美债收益率攀升激起投资者对美国经济衰退的担忧。美联储官员重申了他们继续抗击通胀的决心，并警告称未来还会面临更多痛苦。截止收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.02%，纳斯达克指数跌0.35%，标普500指数跌0.3%。大型科技股多数下跌，亚马逊、特斯拉跌逾2%，英伟达跌逾1%，苹果、AMD涨超1%。软件应用、有色金属板块跌幅居前，世纪铝业跌超6%，麦克莫兰铜业跌超2%。消费电子、抗疫概念股走高，Qorvo涨超5%，Vaccinex涨超4%，礼来涨超2%。2、热门中概股逆市普涨阿里巴巴、京东涨超7%热门中概股普涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨3.71%。阿里巴巴、京东、微博涨超7%，唯品会、百度涨超5%，拼多多涨超4%，爱奇艺、理想汽车涨超3%，哔哩哔哩涨超2%，蔚来、满帮涨超1%。趣店跌超5%，每日优鲜跌超1%，网易、小鹏汽车小幅下跌。3、欧股主要指数多数收跌 欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.11%欧股主要指数周四多数收跌，德国DAX30指数涨0.23%，英国富时100指数跌0.06%，法国CAC40指数跌0.47%，欧洲斯托克50指数跌0.11%。4、美国WTI原油收跌4.6% 创9月底以来最低收盘价纽约商品交易所12月交货的美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)期货价格下跌3.95美元，跌幅为4.6%，收于每桶81.64美元，创9月30日以来最活跃合约的最低收盘价。5、纽约黄金期货周四收跌0.7%纽约商品交易所12月交割的黄金下跌12.80美元，跌幅为0.7%，收于每盎司1763美元。美联储的加息预期推动美元走强和国债收益率攀升，导致金价承压。二、宏观新闻1、“鹰王”布拉德：美联储做得还不够 仍需进一步加息当地时间周四(11月17日)，圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，到目前为止，加息对通胀的影响是有限的，因此美联储仍需进一步加息才能实现平息通胀的目标。今年迄今为止，美联储共进加息六次，累计升息375个基点，将联邦利率目标区间上调至3.75%-4%，这是该央行自上世纪80年代以来最激进的加息周期。2、美国将对俄罗斯石油价格上限发布指导意见美国一位官员近日表示，政府计划在未来几天就将于12月5日生效的俄罗斯石油价格上限发布指导意见。美国制裁政策与执行办公室主任Mullinax表示，政府正就油价上限问题与业界和国际合作伙伴保持密切联系，并将本着灵活的精神来处理这一问题。美国及其G7盟国和澳大利亚计划从12月5日起限制俄罗斯海运石油的价格，对石油产品的第二次限制将于明年2月5日生效。3、美联储官员轮番上阵强调加息 最新一人声称利率至少要到5%-5.25%圣路易斯联储行长James Bullard表示，美联储“至少”要加息到5%-5.25%才能够遏制通胀。金融市场应声大震，投资者重新校准对利率峰值的预估。Bullard在周四演讲结束后他对记者表示，“过去我认为4.75%-5%就可以了，但根据目前的分析，我会建议加到5%-5.25%，这是最低水平。根据分析，至少到这个水平才能让利率处于限制性区域”。在Bullard发言前，已经有数名美联储官员重申过升息决心。4、伦镍盘中再跌近8% 英国公布秋季预算：打出“增税+缩减开支”组合拳昨夜，伦镍延续跌势，截至23:45，伦镍跌近8%。截至今晨收盘，伦镍再度收跌约9%，两日跌近20%。11月17日晚间，英国财政大臣杰里米·亨特发布了政府秋季预算案。亨特表示，根据预算责任办公室的数据，造成英国目前高通胀率的“主要原因”是全球当前形势。个人所得税方面，45%的个税起征点将从年收入150000英镑降低至125140英镑。从2023年1月1日到3月28日，英国政府对石油和天然气企业征收的能源利润税将从25%提高至35%，并从1月1日起对电力企业征收45%的临时税。预计这些措施将为英国政府带来140亿英镑的收入。5、联合国秘书长古特雷斯：各方应该行动起来 在气候协议方面达成一致当地时间周四(11月17日)，联合国秘书长古特雷斯呼吁各国在气候议题上“行动起来”，克服富国和穷国之间的“信任破裂”，在气候协议方面达成一致，将世界从全球变暖中拯救出来。古特雷斯告诉记者，“现在不是相互指责的时候，推卸责任只会带来毁灭”。他呼吁各方在三个关键领域采取行动，即有效应对损失与损害、缩小排放差距、兑现融资承诺。6、法国财长当面声讨《通胀削减法案》 要求拜登政府进行修正综合多家媒体报道，在二十国集团(G20)领导人第十七次峰会期间，法国官员再次警告美国，称先前通过的《通胀削减法案》威胁到了欧洲的经济，敦促拜登政府修正该法案。当地时间周三(11月16日)，法国经济和财政部长勒梅尔(Bruno Le Maire)告诉媒体，美国政府对“美国制造”汽车的补贴政策将使欧洲汽车制造商处于竞争劣势，对欧洲经济造成损害。7、行业高管：美国页岩油增长放缓 欧佩克已重回主导地位当地时间周四(11月17日)，在佛罗里达州迈阿密举行的投资者会议上，美国能源公司首席执行官John Hess表示，在美国页岩油增长放缓的情节下，石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称欧佩克)作为最大的产量调节者，重新回到了主导地位。所谓产量调节者(Swing Producer)，通常指某一商品的或寡头垄断供应商，控制其全球储量并拥有大量闲置产能。摇摆生产者能够以最低的额外内部成本增加或减少供应，从而影响价格和平衡市场。比较典型的产量调节者包括沙特阿拉伯的石油、俄罗斯的钾肥以及历史上戴比尔斯公司的钻石。8、佩洛西：不会竞选民主党领导职位 但将继续担任议员佩洛西的时代已经结束了，美东时间周四(11月17日)，在领导民主党20年之后，美国众议院议长佩洛西表示，她将卸任众议院民主党领袖一职，不会再竞选民主党领导职位，但将继续担任众议院议员。此前，在2022年中期选举中，民主党失去了对众议院的控制，但保持了对参议院的控制。82岁的佩洛西的离职，预计将使众议院民主党迎来重大改组。9、美国抵押贷款利率跌至6.61% 创1981年以来最大降幅美国的抵押贷款利率创下近41年来最大周跌幅，在经历快速上涨之后有所回落。房地美周四发布声明称，30年期固定利率抵押贷款的平均利率为6.61%，为近两个月来最低水平。上周为7.08%。抵押贷款利率的下降追随了10年期国债收益率最近的走势，因上周的官方数据显示10月份通胀缓解。投资者据此预计美联储未来几个月可能开始放慢加息。不过，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔已经表示，现在考虑停顿为时尚早。10、触底反弹？欧洲汽车10月销量同比增长14% 连续三个月保持增长随着供应链问题的缓解，10月份欧洲汽车销量连续第三个月增长，然而市场越来越担心，不断恶化的经济状况可能令购车者望而却步。欧洲汽车制造商协会(ACEA)周四数据显示，欧盟、欧洲自由贸易联盟(EFTA)和英国汽车制造商上个月共交付91.0753万辆汽车，同比增长14%。三、公司新闻1、阿里巴巴拐点将至：淘宝天猫之后 阿里云、菜鸟扛旗11月17日晚间，阿里巴巴公布2022年9月底止季度业绩。本季度，阿里巴巴收入2071.76亿元，同比增长3%；经调整EBITA同比增长29%至人民币361.64亿元，达到市场预期。综合来看，阿里正处于关键的调整期，菜鸟、阿里云有望扛起阿里巴巴下一个阶段的增长。其中，菜鸟在该季度，抵销跨分部交易前营业收入同比增长26%至182.82亿元；阿里云的经调整EBITA为4.34亿元，连续两年实现盈利。2、自动驾驶汽车又遇寒流 大众新CEO可能推迟或取消相关计划刚刚履新不久的大众汽车集团CEO奥利弗·布鲁默 (Oliver Blume)正在评估自动驾驶汽车项目，这是他上任两个月来首次出现调整公司战略方向的消息。据知情人士透露，布鲁默可能会延后Trinty自动驾驶汽车项目，并取消在公司总部附近为该项目建设新工厂的计划。在一份布鲁默和大众乘用车CEO托马斯·舍费尔写给员工的信中，两位高管表示“我们正在利用这个机会，审查所有的项目和投资，并确定它们是否可行”。3、星巴克100多家门店员工发起罢工运动 要求提高工资和福利美东时间周四，星巴克100多家门店的员工联合举行了罢工运动，他们试图向公司施压，以提高工资和福利水平。星巴克工会表示，罢工发生在星巴克的“红杯日”，这是星巴克一年一度的促销活动，这通常是一年中最忙的日子之一，这一促销活动也被视为该公司第四季度销售的一个关键推动因素。工会在罢工前表示：“星巴克的反工会运动始于2021年夏天，当时星巴克派了100多名经理、高管和企业代表监视、威胁和恐吓工人。从那时起，星巴克对工会的破坏越来越糟糕。”4、淡水河谷和通用汽车签署加拿大长期镍供应协议淡水河谷加拿大公司和通用汽车周四宣布，他们已经签署了一项长期镍供应协议，淡水河谷旗下位于加拿大的工厂将向通用汽车长期供应电池级硫酸镍，以支持其在北美快速增长的电动汽车生产需求。这一举措凸显了淡水河谷作为北美最大镍成品生产商的市场领先地位，以及作为电动汽车行业首选供应商的独特战略地位。5、通用汽车预计2023年美国轻型汽车销量达1500万辆通用汽车CFO表示，通用汽车预计2023年美国轻型汽车销量达1500万辆；2023年供应链挑战依然存在；期待美国汽车市场“定价正常化”。6、净利润增长10倍 锂矿巨头SQM预计高锂价将在2023年延续尽管长期锂矿市场前景向好，但短期内面临逆风因素。受锂价飙升以及销量创纪录影响，智利锂矿巨头SQM三季度净利同比增长近10倍。同时SQM预计，今年全球锂需求将增长40%，锂价上涨将延续到2023年。周四，SQM公布的财报数据显示，今年三季度营收同比增长347%至29.58亿美元，净利润大涨近十倍至11亿美元，超出分析师的预期，其中锂矿业务收入增长逾12倍。7、别人恐慌我贪婪，“木头姐”继续抄底数字货币类资产FTX暴雷引发币圈动荡之际，“木头姐”Cathie Wood别人恐慌我贪婪，持续抄底数字货币类资产。周三，“木头姐”的旗舰基金ARKK买入接近16.4万股Coinbase，旗下另一只ETF方舟金融科技创新（ARKF）加仓约8.2万股Coinbase，此外还买入约14.1万股银门资本（Silvergate Capital）。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQQQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"03086":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9985995813,"gmtCreate":1667286017932,"gmtModify":1676537891512,"author":{"id":"3568795433177386","authorId":"3568795433177386","name":"Iris俊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ec47da6583a1a9119da0bac90adb70","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568795433177386","authorIdStr":"3568795433177386"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9985995813","repostId":"1177705687","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177705687","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1667263743,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177705687?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-11-01 08:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Wall Street rallied in unison; JPMorgan Chase: The rate hike cycle will end in early 2023.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177705687","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"这一次，美股还会被鹰派央行浇灭希望吗？","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Will the US stock market be dashed by hawkish central banks again this time? A growing number of Wall Street analysts have joined the ranks of those who believe the Federal Reserve is about to turn.</p><p>This week, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategic analysts, including [other analysts], have stated in their reports that the Federal Reserve's rate hike operations are nearing an end.</p><p>Michael Wilson, a Morgan Stanley strategist who was once one of Wall Street's biggest bearish analysts, said in a report on Monday that indicators including the rebound in U.S. stocks and the inverted 10-year and 3-month Treasury Bond yield curves \"all support the Federal Reserve adjusting its policy as soon as possible, rather than delaying it.\"</p><p>This kind of price movement (rebound) is not uncommon near the end of a cycle, especially as the Federal Reserve's tightening of policy is nearing its end, so we believe the Fed is nearing its end. Therefore, this week's Federal Reserve meeting is crucial for the continuation, pause, or even complete end of the rate hike.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f02737c23a5a2f650c93c74b07298a0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the other hand, JPMorgan Chase's chief strategist Marko Kolanovic also predicted in a report this week that the Federal Reserve might pause rate hike after rate hike 50 basis points in December and rate hike 25 basis points in the first quarter of next year.</p><p>The shift in the European Central Bank's stance, the easing of fiscal pressures in the UK, and the slowdown in Canadian and Australian rate hike have reinforced optimism that the global tightening cycle may end in early 2023. A key support for the risk market comes from the following signal: the Federal Reserve's tightening pace has peaked, and any further rate hike thereafter is likely to be smaller. Unlike Wilson, Kolanovic had previously been one of Wall Street's biggest bullish analysts.</p><p>But now, the views of \"big bears\" and \"big bulls\" are beginning to converge.</p><p>However, these strategists also stated that easing the pace of tightening does not mean that central banks around the world will relax their efforts to combat inflation.<b>To achieve easing and tightening, consumer price pressures need to continue to decline.</b></p><p>Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White points out that the global CPI diffusion index, which reflects the proportion of countries with rising global inflation, is currently at its highest level. It has only reached this level twice before, in 1974 and 2008, and then began to decline rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac8cd063cb08ad5e8f2df02e1fa4aef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Now, the market's attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve.<b>The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to rate hike 75 basis points for the fourth time this Wednesday, and Fed Chairman Powell's speech will be crucial to the market's future direction.</b></p><p>Over the past two weeks, the dismal performance of major U.S. tech stocks caused the S&P 500 to fall as much as 17% and the Nasdaq Composite to fall nearly 22%, but U.S. stocks rebounded as analysts subsequently predicted that the Federal Reserve was about to turn around.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategists believe that the Federal Reserve's potential slowdown in tightening, lighter positions, and strong expectations for seasonal factors in the fourth quarter are the reasons behind the recent rebound in U.S. stocks.</p><p>In 17 bear market rebounds since 1970, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 15% in 44 days. However, every time hope has been ignited in the US stock market before, it has ultimately been extinguished by hawkish central banks. What about this time?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b00ff4a8809dfd3061b2ab28faaa769a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street rallied in unison; JPMorgan Chase: The rate hike cycle will end in early 2023.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street rallied in unison; JPMorgan Chase: The rate hike cycle will end in early 2023.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-01 08:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Will the US stock market be dashed by hawkish central banks again this time? A growing number of Wall Street analysts have joined the ranks of those who believe the Federal Reserve is about to turn.</p><p>This week, including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategic analysts, including [other analysts], have stated in their reports that the Federal Reserve's rate hike operations are nearing an end.</p><p>Michael Wilson, a Morgan Stanley strategist who was once one of Wall Street's biggest bearish analysts, said in a report on Monday that indicators including the rebound in U.S. stocks and the inverted 10-year and 3-month Treasury Bond yield curves \"all support the Federal Reserve adjusting its policy as soon as possible, rather than delaying it.\"</p><p>This kind of price movement (rebound) is not uncommon near the end of a cycle, especially as the Federal Reserve's tightening of policy is nearing its end, so we believe the Fed is nearing its end. Therefore, this week's Federal Reserve meeting is crucial for the continuation, pause, or even complete end of the rate hike.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f02737c23a5a2f650c93c74b07298a0b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"392\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>On the other hand, JPMorgan Chase's chief strategist Marko Kolanovic also predicted in a report this week that the Federal Reserve might pause rate hike after rate hike 50 basis points in December and rate hike 25 basis points in the first quarter of next year.</p><p>The shift in the European Central Bank's stance, the easing of fiscal pressures in the UK, and the slowdown in Canadian and Australian rate hike have reinforced optimism that the global tightening cycle may end in early 2023. A key support for the risk market comes from the following signal: the Federal Reserve's tightening pace has peaked, and any further rate hike thereafter is likely to be smaller. Unlike Wilson, Kolanovic had previously been one of Wall Street's biggest bullish analysts.</p><p>But now, the views of \"big bears\" and \"big bulls\" are beginning to converge.</p><p>However, these strategists also stated that easing the pace of tightening does not mean that central banks around the world will relax their efforts to combat inflation.<b>To achieve easing and tightening, consumer price pressures need to continue to decline.</b></p><p>Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White points out that the global CPI diffusion index, which reflects the proportion of countries with rising global inflation, is currently at its highest level. It has only reached this level twice before, in 1974 and 2008, and then began to decline rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac8cd063cb08ad5e8f2df02e1fa4aef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"329\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Now, the market's attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve.<b>The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to rate hike 75 basis points for the fourth time this Wednesday, and Fed Chairman Powell's speech will be crucial to the market's future direction.</b></p><p>Over the past two weeks, the dismal performance of major U.S. tech stocks caused the S&P 500 to fall as much as 17% and the Nasdaq Composite to fall nearly 22%, but U.S. stocks rebounded as analysts subsequently predicted that the Federal Reserve was about to turn around.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>Strategists believe that the Federal Reserve's potential slowdown in tightening, lighter positions, and strong expectations for seasonal factors in the fourth quarter are the reasons behind the recent rebound in U.S. stocks.</p><p>In 17 bear market rebounds since 1970, the S&P 500 has risen an average of 15% in 44 days. However, every time hope has been ignited in the US stock market before, it has ultimately been extinguished by hawkish central banks. What about this time?</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b00ff4a8809dfd3061b2ab28faaa769a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673760\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3673760","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177705687","content_text":"这一次，美股还会被鹰派央行浇灭希望吗？越来越多的华尔街分析师加入了认为美联储即将转向的队伍。本周，包括摩根士丹利和摩根大通在内的策略分析师都在报告中表示，美联储的加息行动即将结束。曾经作为华尔街最大看跌分析师之一的摩根士丹利策略师Michael Wilson在周一的报告中表示，包括美股反弹、10年期和3个月期国债收益率曲线倒挂在内的指标“都支持美联储尽早调整政策，而不是推迟”：在周期接近尾声时，（反弹）这种价格走势并不罕见，特别是在美联储收紧政策行动接近尾声之际，（因此）我们认为美联储正在接近尾声。因此，本周的美联储会议对加息的继续、暂停甚至完全结束至关重要。另一边，摩根大通首席策略师Marko Kolanovic也在本周的报告中预计，美联储可能会在12月加息50基点，在明年一季度再加息25基点后暂停加息：欧洲央行态度的转变、英国财政压力的缓解以及加拿大和澳大利亚加息步伐的放缓，增强了人们的乐观情绪，我们认为全球紧缩周期可能在2023年初结束。风险市场的一个重要支撑来自以下信号：美联储的收紧步伐已见顶，此后任何进一步加息的规模可能都将变小。与Wilson不同的是，Kolanovic此前一直是华尔街最大的多头分析师之一。但现在，“大空头”与“大多头”观点开始统一。不过，这些策略师也表示，放松紧缩步伐并不意味着全球央行将放松对抗通胀的力度。要实现放松紧缩，就需要消费者的价格压力继续下降。彭博宏观策略师Simon White指出，目前全球CPI扩散指数处于最高值，该指数反映了全球通胀处于上升趋势的国家的比例，而此前仅在1974年和2008年两次达到该水平，并且达到后迅速开始下降。现在，市场的目光都将集中在美联储身上。市场普遍预计美联储将在本周三第四次加息75基点，而美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话也将对市场之后的走向至关重要。过去两周，美国大型科技股的惨淡业绩使得标普500指数一度跌17%，纳指跌近22%，但随着之后分析师们预测美联储即将转向，美股出现反弹。高盛策略师认为，美联储收紧步伐可能放缓、仓位较轻以及对第四季度季节性因素强劲的预期是最近几周美股反弹的背后原因。在1970年以来的17次熊市反弹中，标准普尔500指数在44天内平均上涨了15%。然而，此前美股每次燃起希望，最终都被鹰派央行所浇灭，这一次呢？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9986875072,"gmtCreate":1666931240496,"gmtModify":1676537833957,"author":{"id":"3568795433177386","authorId":"3568795433177386","name":"Iris俊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ec47da6583a1a9119da0bac90adb70","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568795433177386","authorIdStr":"3568795433177386"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok👍","listText":"Ok👍","text":"Ok👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9986875072","repostId":"1107369797","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914779120,"gmtCreate":1665373288260,"gmtModify":1676537595039,"author":{"id":"3568795433177386","authorId":"3568795433177386","name":"Iris俊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ec47da6583a1a9119da0bac90adb70","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568795433177386","authorIdStr":"3568795433177386"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914779120","repostId":"1157180522","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9914813588,"gmtCreate":1665228730645,"gmtModify":1676537576109,"author":{"id":"3568795433177386","authorId":"3568795433177386","name":"Iris俊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ec47da6583a1a9119da0bac90adb70","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568795433177386","authorIdStr":"3568795433177386"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9914813588","repostId":"1162298976","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9916289897,"gmtCreate":1664599040919,"gmtModify":1676537483387,"author":{"id":"3568795433177386","authorId":"3568795433177386","name":"Iris俊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ec47da6583a1a9119da0bac90adb70","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568795433177386","authorIdStr":"3568795433177386"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"K","listText":"K","text":"K","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9916289897","repostId":"2271377796","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9919401733,"gmtCreate":1663834027922,"gmtModify":1676537346349,"author":{"id":"3568795433177386","authorId":"3568795433177386","name":"Iris俊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66ec47da6583a1a9119da0bac90adb70","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568795433177386","authorIdStr":"3568795433177386"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9919401733","repostId":"1122350702","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}