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东方波澜
东方波澜
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2022-05-15
$Sea Ltd(SE)$
good stock to buy. A lot of potential
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东方波澜
东方波澜
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2021-06-10
hi
Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity
美联储可能在8月具备释放缩减QE信号的就业条件。
Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity
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东方波澜
东方波澜
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2021-06-09
hi
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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东方波澜
东方波澜
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2021-06-07
Hi
Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight
亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示,他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。
Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight
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东方波澜
东方波澜
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2021-06-07
hi
Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight
亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示,他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。
Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight
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东方波澜
东方波澜
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2021-06-05
hi
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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东方波澜
东方波澜
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2021-05-29
hi
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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东方波澜
东方波澜
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2021-05-27
hi
The number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?
财报显示,第一季度拼多多营收221.7亿元,同比增长239%;非通用会计准则下,归属于普通股股东的净亏损为18.903亿元,同比大幅收窄;截至2021年3月31日,拼多多年度活跃买家数达到8.238亿,较上一年同期净增1.957亿。本季度,拼多多营销服务收入为141.1亿元,同比增长157%,创下近一年多以来的新高。所以,拼多多下一步要做什么,用David Liu的话来说,就是要提高用户的粘性。
The number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?
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东方波澜
东方波澜
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2021-05-26
hi
Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?
摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席中国财富管理50人论坛举办的“经济增长形势分析闭门座谈会”,并作发言时表示,美国“高压经济学”政策刺激下通胀卷土重来,带来长期结构性通胀,给“俏也不争春”的中国经济
Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?
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东方波澜
东方波澜
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2021-05-25
Hi
Some companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?
预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。 今日,生物疫苗板块高开,截至收盘,科兴制药飙涨逾11%,仁和药业、未名医药涨停,赛升药业大涨超14%,康泰生物、沃森生物、康希诺-U等跟涨。
Some companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?
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A lot of potential","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>good stock to buy. A lot of potential","text":"$Sea Ltd(SE)$good stock to buy. A lot of potential","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9020368035","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":183892143,"gmtCreate":1623319422282,"gmtModify":1704200791528,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/183892143","repostId":"1141888036","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141888036","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623319167,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141888036?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-10 17:59","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141888036","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"美联储可能在8月具备释放缩减QE信号的就业条件。","content":"<p>Author: Xiang Jingshu/Song Xuetao</p><p><b>In the past two months, the liquidity flood of the US dollar has surpassed inflation, fundamentals and policy, and dominated the trend and style of large asset classes.</b></p><p><b>The excess liquidity originated from the flooding of the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department since March this year.</b>The TGA account is the cash balance or general account of the U.S. Treasury Department, which reflects most of the income and expenditure of the U.S. Treasury Department. When the TGA increases (decreases), it will draw (increase) reserves from the banking system. According to the U.S. post-epidemic stimulus bill, the U.S. Treasury Department raised approximately US $4.3 trillion in 2020. However, due to slow allocation, funds were stranded in TGA, leaving TGA with a balance of US $1.4 trillion in early March.</p><p><b>The pressure of TGA flood discharge before August is still there.</b>On February 1, 2021, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced the TGA reduction plan and began to reduce the balance of TGA accounts. It is planned to reduce to $800 billion by the end of March and $500 billion by the end of June, and finally meet the requirements by the end of July. However, as of June 2, TGA's account balance was still 783.2 billion, and the pressure drop rate was slower than planned.</p><p>Figure 1: TGA account balance (USD billion)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df65ca24c84cce91a145e23362ec58b\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Since March, TGA has dropped by about 680 billion yuan, which is equivalent to providing an additional increase of about 8% on the basis of the current deposit balances of all commercial banks.<b>Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase (O/N RRP) Usage Surges</b>, the absorption capacity of banks is close to saturation. This will put downward (negative interest rate) pressure on short-term interest rates and related asset prices.</p><p>Figure 2: The scale of overnight reverse repurchase in the United States hits a record high (billion US dollars)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d24e160e8fbc24c1406df5e8d6c1990\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Figure 3: The dollar liquidity premium returns to the extremely low level seen during the epidemic last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0d3421217ea7beb0752370706a58c\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>We judge that the inflection point of liquidity of the US dollar will appear in August this year.</b></p><p><b>First, the flood discharge of the TGA account ends at the end of July, and may turn from a decrease to an increase in August.</b></p><p>The debt limit plan will be a turning point for TGA to release liquidity. According to the estimate of the U.S. Treasury Department in May, when the \"debt ceiling\" exemption expires at the end of July, the general account balance of the Treasury Department will be reduced to approximately $450 billion; After that, with the issuance of debt, it will rise to approximately US $750 billion by the end of September, which means that the issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance in August and September will bring about a liquidity contraction of US $300 billion. Only by raising the debt ceiling can the U.S. government continue to borrow, otherwise the Treasury Department can only choose to stop issuing Treasury Bond and continue to use TGA accounts and other limited number of \"special measures\" to keep the government's funding supply. The TGA account balance will continue to decline at this time. Once the relevant measures fail to cover the financing needs of the Treasury Department, it may lead to a technical default of the U.S. government and a downgrade of the U.S. debt rating.</p><p><b>Second, the Federal Reserve may have the employment conditions to release the signal of reducing QE in August.</b></p><p>Regarding the labor market, Powell is worried that \"the epidemic will cause long-term scars on the labor market. So far, we have not experienced that level of trauma.\" Powell believes that it will take some time to gradually recover from the imbalance in the labor market caused by the epidemic. Hence<b>The degree of improvement in the labor market is an important signpost for judging the Fed's actions.</b></p><p><b>In terms of employment, the accelerated recovery of the service industry has significantly boosted employment.</b>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 559,000 in May, slightly worse than the expected 675,000, but better than the previous value of 266,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8%, better than the expected 5.9% and the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, jobs in leisure and hotel industries, public and private education, medical care and social assistance have increased significantly. The number of new jobs in the private service industry reached 492,000, which was the main driving force for new non-agricultural employment. Among them, the leisure and hotel industries performed well, with 292,000 new jobs. With the resumption of on-site teaching and other school-related activities in some areas, the number of employed people in education has also increased.</p><p>Figure 4: Non-farm employment breakdown in May (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401439e6e55203269ab83a1ec5e110c4\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the labor force participation rate was lower. In addition to higher unemployment subsidies, there were also child care and transportation problems.</b>Unemployment subsidies are higher than the average wage of low-income people, hindering the willingness to return to work to a certain extent; The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve shows that since most schools have not yet resumed classes, low-income people and women bear more childcare burdens; At the same time, due to the epidemic, the reduction of some public transportation frequencies has led to a decline in transportation convenience, which is the reason for the decline in labor participation rate.</p><p>In terms of childcare, the resumption of classes for students is advancing: many American schools have advanced to August, and the number of new jobs in public and private schools increased by 103,000 and 41,000 respectively in May, indicating that schools are resuming classes, which is a positive signal. After Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in people aged 12-15, states across the United States started vaccination efforts for teenagers.</p><p>Table 1: Low-income people are most likely to have not returned to the labour market because they have to care for children</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df31823c9d430179ccd80016cacaa34\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: Data are average values from 2015 to 2019. Source: stlouisfed, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Twenty-five states in the past month announced that the pandemic-era unemployment benefit (PUA) of $300 per week would no longer be paid as of June. From July to August, with the withdrawal of unemployment subsidies and the resumption of students' classes, the labor participation rate will gradually improve and the job market will recover significantly. Assuming that non-farm employment will increase by an average of 600,000 people every month in the future, the employment scale in the United States that shrank due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage will recover to about 75% in September, and will be completely restored in May around the second half of 2022.</p><p>Figure 5: Different assumptions for employment restoration (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74c2fab118adea0a5ae6e3f23099b70\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: 400,000 is the average level of new non-agricultural jobs since September 2020, corresponding to the neutral forecast; 600,000 is the average level in the first three months of 2021, corresponding to optimistic assumptions; 200,000 is the average level from 2017 to 2019, corresponding to pessimistic forecasts. Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Referring to the experience of 2013, the Federal Reserve may release a signal to reduce QE when employment returns to around 75%, and start to reduce QE as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. The fastest time to release the signal may be at the Jackson Hole meeting in August or the interest rate meeting in September.</b></p><p>Figure 6: With the steady improvement of employment, the Federal Reserve gradually tightens monetary policy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a68b836f28c1332cb0738ff3f3bfbb5\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Third, the vaccination rate will reach 75% in September.</b></p><p><b>Vaccination Progress</b>It directly affects the recovery speed of the labor market (especially the low-end and service industries). St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that 75% of Americans are vaccinated will be a signal that the new crown crisis is coming to an end and a necessary condition for the Fed to consider tapering its bond purchase program.</p><p>In terms of vaccination, data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 7 showed that 50.9% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, 41.3% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, and 63.8% of the adult population had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine. But vaccinations have been declining over the past few weeks. According to CDC data, the average daily vaccination volume in the United States in the past week was 1.07 million, down one-third from the peak of 3.4 million in April. At this rate,<b>We expect that the United States will achieve 75% universal vaccination in late September and 75% adult vaccination in late July.</b></p><p>Figure 7: Vaccination rate and forecast in COVID-19 vaccine, USA</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac4ad50410de688e76122d9ea44f8c51\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: ourworldindata, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The pandemic is the biggest politics, and the vaccine is the biggest policy.</b></p><p>When the vaccination is completed, the service industry is accelerated to open up, financial subsidies are withdrawn, and unemployment is significantly improved, the inflection point of fiscal and monetary liquidity will also appear. August is a critical time when the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department bottoms out and the Federal Reserve releases a signal to reduce QE. The inflection points of fiscal and monetary liquidity may resonate.<b>In February of this year, major asset classes have already made a preview of the inflection point of liquidity. In August, high-valued stocks and interest rate-sensitive assets may reproduce their performance in February.</b></p><p>Figure 8: Performance of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, U.S. dollar, and gold from January to June this year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c69078674f51115227f83a254b24208\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: WIND, TF Securities Research Institute</p>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTianfeng Securities: August is the inflection point of US dollar liquidity\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">雪涛宏观笔记</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-10 17:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Xiang Jingshu/Song Xuetao</p><p><b>In the past two months, the liquidity flood of the US dollar has surpassed inflation, fundamentals and policy, and dominated the trend and style of large asset classes.</b></p><p><b>The excess liquidity originated from the flooding of the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department since March this year.</b>The TGA account is the cash balance or general account of the U.S. Treasury Department, which reflects most of the income and expenditure of the U.S. Treasury Department. When the TGA increases (decreases), it will draw (increase) reserves from the banking system. According to the U.S. post-epidemic stimulus bill, the U.S. Treasury Department raised approximately US $4.3 trillion in 2020. However, due to slow allocation, funds were stranded in TGA, leaving TGA with a balance of US $1.4 trillion in early March.</p><p><b>The pressure of TGA flood discharge before August is still there.</b>On February 1, 2021, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced the TGA reduction plan and began to reduce the balance of TGA accounts. It is planned to reduce to $800 billion by the end of March and $500 billion by the end of June, and finally meet the requirements by the end of July. However, as of June 2, TGA's account balance was still 783.2 billion, and the pressure drop rate was slower than planned.</p><p>Figure 1: TGA account balance (USD billion)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2df65ca24c84cce91a145e23362ec58b\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"399\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Since March, TGA has dropped by about 680 billion yuan, which is equivalent to providing an additional increase of about 8% on the basis of the current deposit balances of all commercial banks.<b>Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase (O/N RRP) Usage Surges</b>, the absorption capacity of banks is close to saturation. This will put downward (negative interest rate) pressure on short-term interest rates and related asset prices.</p><p>Figure 2: The scale of overnight reverse repurchase in the United States hits a record high (billion US dollars)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d24e160e8fbc24c1406df5e8d6c1990\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Figure 3: The dollar liquidity premium returns to the extremely low level seen during the epidemic last year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8f0d3421217ea7beb0752370706a58c\" tg-width=\"816\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>We judge that the inflection point of liquidity of the US dollar will appear in August this year.</b></p><p><b>First, the flood discharge of the TGA account ends at the end of July, and may turn from a decrease to an increase in August.</b></p><p>The debt limit plan will be a turning point for TGA to release liquidity. According to the estimate of the U.S. Treasury Department in May, when the \"debt ceiling\" exemption expires at the end of July, the general account balance of the Treasury Department will be reduced to approximately $450 billion; After that, with the issuance of debt, it will rise to approximately US $750 billion by the end of September, which means that the issuance of bonds by the Ministry of Finance in August and September will bring about a liquidity contraction of US $300 billion. Only by raising the debt ceiling can the U.S. government continue to borrow, otherwise the Treasury Department can only choose to stop issuing Treasury Bond and continue to use TGA accounts and other limited number of \"special measures\" to keep the government's funding supply. The TGA account balance will continue to decline at this time. Once the relevant measures fail to cover the financing needs of the Treasury Department, it may lead to a technical default of the U.S. government and a downgrade of the U.S. debt rating.</p><p><b>Second, the Federal Reserve may have the employment conditions to release the signal of reducing QE in August.</b></p><p>Regarding the labor market, Powell is worried that \"the epidemic will cause long-term scars on the labor market. So far, we have not experienced that level of trauma.\" Powell believes that it will take some time to gradually recover from the imbalance in the labor market caused by the epidemic. Hence<b>The degree of improvement in the labor market is an important signpost for judging the Fed's actions.</b></p><p><b>In terms of employment, the accelerated recovery of the service industry has significantly boosted employment.</b>U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 559,000 in May, slightly worse than the expected 675,000, but better than the previous value of 266,000. The unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 5.8%, better than the expected 5.9% and the previous value of 6.1%. Among them, jobs in leisure and hotel industries, public and private education, medical care and social assistance have increased significantly. The number of new jobs in the private service industry reached 492,000, which was the main driving force for new non-agricultural employment. Among them, the leisure and hotel industries performed well, with 292,000 new jobs. With the resumption of on-site teaching and other school-related activities in some areas, the number of employed people in education has also increased.</p><p>Figure 4: Non-farm employment breakdown in May (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/401439e6e55203269ab83a1ec5e110c4\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The U.S. non-farm payrolls data was lower than expected, and the labor force participation rate was lower. In addition to higher unemployment subsidies, there were also child care and transportation problems.</b>Unemployment subsidies are higher than the average wage of low-income people, hindering the willingness to return to work to a certain extent; The Beige Book of the Federal Reserve shows that since most schools have not yet resumed classes, low-income people and women bear more childcare burdens; At the same time, due to the epidemic, the reduction of some public transportation frequencies has led to a decline in transportation convenience, which is the reason for the decline in labor participation rate.</p><p>In terms of childcare, the resumption of classes for students is advancing: many American schools have advanced to August, and the number of new jobs in public and private schools increased by 103,000 and 41,000 respectively in May, indicating that schools are resuming classes, which is a positive signal. After Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine was approved for use in people aged 12-15, states across the United States started vaccination efforts for teenagers.</p><p>Table 1: Low-income people are most likely to have not returned to the labour market because they have to care for children</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7df31823c9d430179ccd80016cacaa34\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: Data are average values from 2015 to 2019. Source: stlouisfed, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p>Twenty-five states in the past month announced that the pandemic-era unemployment benefit (PUA) of $300 per week would no longer be paid as of June. From July to August, with the withdrawal of unemployment subsidies and the resumption of students' classes, the labor participation rate will gradually improve and the job market will recover significantly. Assuming that non-farm employment will increase by an average of 600,000 people every month in the future, the employment scale in the United States that shrank due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage will recover to about 75% in September, and will be completely restored in May around the second half of 2022.</p><p>Figure 5: Different assumptions for employment restoration (thousands)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d74c2fab118adea0a5ae6e3f23099b70\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Note: 400,000 is the average level of new non-agricultural jobs since September 2020, corresponding to the neutral forecast; 600,000 is the average level in the first three months of 2021, corresponding to optimistic assumptions; 200,000 is the average level from 2017 to 2019, corresponding to pessimistic forecasts. Source: FRED, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Referring to the experience of 2013, the Federal Reserve may release a signal to reduce QE when employment returns to around 75%, and start to reduce QE as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. The fastest time to release the signal may be at the Jackson Hole meeting in August or the interest rate meeting in September.</b></p><p>Figure 6: With the steady improvement of employment, the Federal Reserve gradually tightens monetary policy</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a68b836f28c1332cb0738ff3f3bfbb5\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: bloomberg, Tianfeng Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Third, the vaccination rate will reach 75% in September.</b></p><p><b>Vaccination Progress</b>It directly affects the recovery speed of the labor market (especially the low-end and service industries). St. Louis Fed President James Bullard believes that 75% of Americans are vaccinated will be a signal that the new crown crisis is coming to an end and a necessary condition for the Fed to consider tapering its bond purchase program.</p><p>In terms of vaccination, data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 7 showed that 50.9% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, 41.3% of the population in the United States had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine, and 63.8% of the adult population had received at least one dose of novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine. But vaccinations have been declining over the past few weeks. According to CDC data, the average daily vaccination volume in the United States in the past week was 1.07 million, down one-third from the peak of 3.4 million in April. At this rate,<b>We expect that the United States will achieve 75% universal vaccination in late September and 75% adult vaccination in late July.</b></p><p>Figure 7: Vaccination rate and forecast in COVID-19 vaccine, USA</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac4ad50410de688e76122d9ea44f8c51\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: ourworldindata, TF Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>The pandemic is the biggest politics, and the vaccine is the biggest policy.</b></p><p>When the vaccination is completed, the service industry is accelerated to open up, financial subsidies are withdrawn, and unemployment is significantly improved, the inflection point of fiscal and monetary liquidity will also appear. August is a critical time when the TGA account of the U.S. Treasury Department bottoms out and the Federal Reserve releases a signal to reduce QE. The inflection points of fiscal and monetary liquidity may resonate.<b>In February of this year, major asset classes have already made a preview of the inflection point of liquidity. In August, high-valued stocks and interest rate-sensitive assets may reproduce their performance in February.</b></p><p>Figure 8: Performance of U.S. stocks, U.S. bonds, U.S. dollar, and gold from January to June this year</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c69078674f51115227f83a254b24208\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: WIND, TF Securities Research Institute</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492175.html\">雪涛宏观笔记</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4eb38b95a6b8cf963d8108ff90eb2e3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/492175.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141888036","content_text":"作者:向静姝/宋雪涛\n过去2个月,美元的流动性泛滥超越了通胀、基本面和政策,主导了大类资产的走势和风格。\n过剩的流动性起源于今年3月以来美国财政部TGA账户的泄洪。TGA账户是美国财政部的现金结余或财政部一般账户,反映美国财政部大部分收入及支出。当TGA增加(减少)时,其将从银行系统中吸取(增加)储备。根据美国疫后刺激法案,2020年美国财政部融资了约4.3万亿美元,但是由于拨出缓慢,资金滞留在TGA,使得TGA在3月初存有1.4 万亿美元余额。\n8月前TGA泄洪的压力仍在。2021年2月1日,美国财政部公布TGA缩减计划,开始着手压降TGA账户余额。计划3月底缩减至8000亿美元,6月底缩减至5000亿美元,最终在7月底达到要求。但截止6月2日TGA的账户余额还有7832亿,压降速度低于计划。\n图1:TGA账户余额(十亿美元)\n\n资料来源:FRED,天风证券研究所\n3月至今TGA已压降了大约6800亿,整体相当于向当前所有商业银行存款余额的基础上提供了额外约8%的增量。美联储隔夜逆回购(O/N RRP)用量激增,银行吸纳容量已经接近饱和。这将对短端利率及相关的资产价格带来下行(负利率)压力。\n图2:美国隔夜逆回购规模创历史新高(十亿美元)\n\n资料来源:FRED,天风证券研究所\n图3:美元流动性溢价回到去年疫情期间的极低水平\n\n资料来源:bloomberg,天风证券研究所\n我们判断美元的流动性拐点将出现在今年内8月。\n第一,TGA账户的泄洪在7月底截止,可能在8月由降转升。\n债务限额预案将成为TGA释放流动性的转折点。根据美国财政部5月的估计,7月底 “债务上限”豁免到期时,财政部一般账户余额将降低至大约4500亿美元;之后,随着债务发行,9月末将回升至大约7500亿美元,这意味着8、9月财政部发债将带来3000亿美元的流动性收缩。提高债务上限才能让美国政府继续举债,否则财政部只能选择停止发行国债,继续使用TGA账户和其他有限数量的“特别措施”来保持政府的资金供应。此时TGA账户余额将继续下降。一旦相关措施不能覆盖财政部的融资需要,可能导致美国政府出现技术性违约和美债评级下调。\n第二,美联储可能在8月具备释放缩减QE信号的就业条件。\n对于劳动力市场,鲍威尔担心“疫情会对劳动力市场造成长期的伤疤,到目前为止,我们还没有经历过那种程度的创伤”。疫情导致的劳动力市场的失衡关系,鲍威尔认为还需要一段时间才能逐渐地恢复过来。因此劳动力市场改善程度是判断美联储行动的重要路标。\n就业方面,服务业加速恢复对就业的拉动显著。5月美国非农就业人数增加55.9万人,略逊于预期的67.5万人,但好于前值26.6万人。失业率下降0.3个百分点至5.8%,好于预期的5.9%和前值6.1%。其中休闲和酒店业、公私营教育、医疗保健和社会援助等领域的工作显著增加。私人服务业新增就业达到49.2万人,为新增非农就业的主要动力。其中,休闲和酒店业表现亮眼,新增就业达到29.2万人。而随着部分地区恢复现场教学及其他与学校有关的活动,教育的就业人数也有增加。\n图4:5月非农就业分项(千人)\n\n资料来源:bloomberg,天风证券研究所\n美国非农就业数据低于预期,劳动参与率走低,原因除了失业补贴较高之外,还有托儿、交通问题。失业补贴高于低收入人群平均工资在一定程度上阻碍了复工意愿;美联储褐皮书显示,由于目前多数学校尚未复课,低收入人群和女性承担更多的育儿负担;同时由于疫情导致部分公共交通班次减少带来交通便利程度下降,都是造成劳动参与率下降的原因。\n育儿方面,学生复课正在推进:许多美国学校开学时间提前到8月,5月公立和私人学校新增就业分别上升10.3万和4.1万人,说明学校在复课,这是一个积极的信号。在辉瑞新冠疫苗针对12-15周岁人群的使用得到批准后,全美各州纷纷开启针对青少年的疫苗接种工作。\n表1:低收入人群最有可能因为要照顾孩子而尚未回到劳动力市场\n\n注:数据为2015年至2019年的平均值。资料来源:stlouisfed,天风证券研究所\n过去一个月有25个州宣布疫情时期每周300美元的失业津贴(PUA)将自6月起不再发放。7-8月,伴随失业补贴退出、学生复课,劳动参与率将逐渐改善,就业市场将显著恢复。假设非农就业未来每个月平均新增60万人,美国前期受疫情冲击而萎缩的就业规模,将在9月恢复至75%左右,并于2022年下半年前后5月完全修复。\n图5:就业修复的不同假设(千人)\n\n注: 40万是2020年9月以来非农新增就业的均值水平,对应中性预测;60万是2021年前3个月的均值水平,对应乐观假设;20万是2017-2019年的均值水平,对应悲观预测。资料来源:FRED,天风证券研究所\n参照2013年的经验,美联储可能在就业恢复到75%附近时释放缩减QE信号,并最快在今年4季度开始缩减QE。释放信号的时间最快可能是在8月的Jackson Hole会议或9月的议息会议。\n图6:伴随就业稳固改善,美联储逐步收紧货币政策\n\n资料来源:bloomberg,天风证券研究所\n第三,疫苗接种率将在9月达到75%。\n疫苗接种进度直接影响劳动力市场(特别是低端、服务业)修复速度。圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard认为75%的美国人接种疫苗将是新冠危机即将结束的信号,也是美联储考虑缩减购债计划的必要条件。\n疫苗接种方面,美国疾病控制和预防中心(CDC)6月7日公布的数据显示,美国至少接种一剂新冠肺炎疫苗的人口比例为50.9%,美国完全接种新冠肺炎疫苗的人口比例为41.3%,至少接种一剂新冠肺炎疫苗的成人人口比例为63.8%。但过去数周疫苗接种量在下降。根据CDC数据,在过去一周美国平均每日接种量为107万,较4月的峰值340万下降了三分之一。按照此速度,我们预计美国将在9月下旬达成75%全民接种,7月下旬完成75%成人接种。\n图7:美国新冠疫苗接种率及预测\n\n资料来源:ourworldindata,天风证券研究所\n疫情是最大的政治,疫苗是最大的政策。\n当疫苗接种完成、服务业加速开放、财政补贴退出、失业显著改善的信号出现时,财政和货币的流动性拐点也将随之出现。8月是美国财政部TGA账户见底、美联储释放缩减QE信号的关键时点,财政和货币的流动性拐点可能出现共振。今年2月,大类资产已经对流动性拐点做过一次预演,8月高估值股票和利率敏感型资产可能重现2月时的表现。\n图8:今年1-6月美股、美债、美元、黄金表现\n\n资料来源:WIND,天风证券研究所","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180756857,"gmtCreate":1623228644979,"gmtModify":1704198801517,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/180756857","repostId":"1151884705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114832795,"gmtCreate":1623064241017,"gmtModify":1704195289168,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114832795","repostId":"1199907200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199907200","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623063101,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199907200?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 18:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199907200","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示,他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","content":"<p>Amazon founder Bezos said he himself and his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight</title>\n<style 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his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5c24ebb3777a08add85d8b2a6ba661e","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199907200","content_text":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示,他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":114832238,"gmtCreate":1623064228124,"gmtModify":1704195288839,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/114832238","repostId":"1199907200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199907200","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623063101,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199907200?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-07 18:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199907200","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示,他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","content":"<p>Amazon founder Bezos said he himself and his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight</title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBezos and his brother to join Blue Origin's space flight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-07 18:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon founder Bezos said he himself and his brother will participate in Blue Origin's spaceflight scheduled for July.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5c24ebb3777a08add85d8b2a6ba661e","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199907200","content_text":"亚马逊创始人贝佐斯表示,他本人和他的兄弟将参加蓝色起源定于7月进行的太空飞行。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112491026,"gmtCreate":1622897579565,"gmtModify":1704193101519,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/112491026","repostId":"2141400426","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137929722,"gmtCreate":1622287418466,"gmtModify":1704182718655,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/137929722","repostId":"1140647879","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132461175,"gmtCreate":1622107752697,"gmtModify":1704179595084,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/132461175","repostId":"2138140998","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2138140998","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622105065,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2138140998?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-27 16:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2138140998","media":"腾讯科技","summary":"财报显示,第一季度拼多多营收221.7亿元,同比增长239%;非通用会计准则下,归属于普通股股东的净亏损为18.903亿元,同比大幅收窄;截至2021年3月31日,拼多多年度活跃买家数达到8.238亿,较上一年同期净增1.957亿。本季度,拼多多营销服务收入为141.1亿元,同比增长157%,创下近一年多以来的新高。所以,拼多多下一步要做什么,用David Liu的话来说,就是要提高用户的粘性。","content":"<p>On the evening of May 26, Pinduoduo released its financial report for the first quarter of 2021. This is also the first financial report after Huang Zheng stepped down as chairman and Chen Lei took over as chairman.</p><p>The financial report shows that Pinduoduo's revenue in the first quarter was 22.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 239%; Under non-GAAP, the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 1.8903 billion yuan, a significant narrowing year-on-year; As of March 31, 2021, the number of annual active buyers in Pinduoduo reached 823.8 million, a net increase of 195.7 million over the same period last year.</p><p>Judging from these core data alone, Pinduoduo's report card seems to be pretty good. However, Pinduoduo's stock price bucked the trend and fell by more than 5% despite the general strength of technology stocks, which makes people wonder: Is Pinduoduo dying? After Huang Zheng steps down, can Chen Lei hold on to Pinduoduo's fundamentals? When the annual active buyers gradually touch the ceiling, where is Pinduoduo's growth point? This issue of Penguin Decoding reveals the secret for you.</p><p><b>Self-operated product sales stimulate revenue surge</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d698512649687888aa0083d9e2a3bb5\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo has launched a self-operated model, and the item of \"commodity revenue\" has also been added to its financial report. It is precisely because of this change that Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate has returned to above 100% since last year, and reached 239% in this quarter, setting a new high in the past two years. Since there was no \"commodity revenue\" in the second and third quarters of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate is expected to maintain rapid growth.</p><p>Different from the previous financial report, Pinduoduo did not announce the annualized GMV, so it is impossible to intuitively see the improvement of Pinduoduo's GMV by the self-operated business. However, in the conference call after the financial report, Cai Majing, vice president of finance of Pinduoduo, said that self-operated business is a channel made by the platform to temporarily meet the needs of consumers when merchants cannot meet the needs of consumers. This business is not Pinduoduo's strategic focus, so the GMV generated is very small for the overall platform.</p><p>Last quarter, Pinduoduo's annualized GMV was 1.67 trillion yuan, which was allocated to approximately 417.5 billion yuan per quarter. This quarter, Pinduoduo's revenue from self-operation was 5.124 billion yuan. It can be seen that this part contributed a lot to the growth of revenue, but it did have a very small impact on the improvement of GMV.</p><p>In addition, if this part is excluded, Pinduoduo's revenue is 17.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.64%, and the growth rate is a new high since the second half of 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13abbd9d6ae21bfd2934ecf3dd120f09\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from Pinduoduo's current revenue structure, commodity sales revenue has become the second largest business, and the largest business is still marketing services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e9c2aeb7995c7e8ab261b486215a95\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This quarter, Pinduoduo's marketing service revenue was 14.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 157%, setting a new high in more than a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2144822e2487bd30e637185daae3a88e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although transaction service revenue accounts for the smallest proportion of Pinduoduo's revenue structure, the changes in this quarter are worth noting: revenue was 2.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180%. The former hit a record high, and the latter hit a new high in the past two years.</p><p>Some analysts also raised questions about this high growth during the conference call. In this regard, Ma Jing's answer is: first, driven by the growth of sales in the first quarter, and second, driven by the revenue growth of Duoduo's grocery shopping business.</p><p>But this answer did not uncover all the doubts. The fourth quarter of each year, due to the double 11 shopping spree, is the peak sales season of e-commerce platforms every year, and the revenue is significantly higher than other quarters. Pinduoduo is no exception, so the transaction service fee is in the fourth quarter of each year. It should also be the highest, and the first quarter of the following year should decrease month-on-month.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, Pinduoduo's revenue fell by more than 4 billion yuan month-on-month. Theoretically, transaction service fees should also decline month-on-month, but the actual situation is that transaction service fees increased by 660 million yuan month-on-month. Therefore, it is still a question how Pinduoduo did it.</p><p><b>The proportion of marketing expenditure in revenue dropped significantly</b></p><p>Although the self-operated business has driven a surge in revenue, it has also been followed by a surge in revenue costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e64f8819e655e3dfa16c973912565e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue cost has exceeded 10 billion yuan in one fell swoop, reaching 10.75 billion yuan this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 487%, far exceeding the revenue growth rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a03e45af744fc4bd761a04598c092a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A direct consequence of the surge in revenue costs is the decline in gross profit. In the past few quarters, Pinduoduo's gross profit margin has always remained above 70%, but since the fourth quarter of last year, it has plummeted to 56.58%, and this quarter has further dropped to 51.52%. It is expected that Pinduoduo will gross profit margin for a long time. The profit margin cannot return to a high point.</p><p>In addition, the above picture also makes many people confused: Pinduoduo's gross profit margin is so high, why will it not be profitable for a long time? The answer is: Pinduoduo's marketing expenses remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a972a9bd17d86f6a47abfe83b1eb185a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Pinduoduo's marketing expenses have exceeded 14 billion yuan for two consecutive quarters, and the growth rate of 157% has also reached a new high in the past two years, which is inseparable from the fact that Pinduoduo is increasing its support for Duoduomaicai.</p><p>But David Liu, vice president of strategy at Pinduoduo, mentioned in the conference call that the proportion of overall marketing expenses in revenue is declining.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fe586c6f8ba26db5733db3498d5727\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Two years ago, Pinduoduo's marketing expenses exceeded revenue, accounting for more than 100%, but then this data has been greatly improved. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, they were only 55.42% and 63.66% respectively..</p><p>This shows that Pinduoduo's marketing efficiency has improved, that is, marketing expenses have been reduced accordingly, which has not affected the growth of revenue. David Liu also said that Duoduo's grocery shopping business better meets the needs of users and expands the company's ability to fulfill contracts. These users also purchase more frequently. In terms of marketing expenditure, the company will also benefit in the long run.</p><p>In addition, the decline in the proportion of marketing expenses has also greatly improved Pinduoduo's profitability. In the first quarter of last year, marketing expenses accounted for 111.55%, so the loss in the same period reached 3.17 billion yuan, while this year it was only 1.89 billion yuan, which narrowed significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Improving user stickiness becomes Pinduoduo's next focus</b></p><p>In the conference call last quarter, David Liu warned: Given the current scale of users in Pinduoduo, I think it is inevitable that the growth rate of users will slow down in the next time. Combined with this quarter's data, unfortunately, it's right.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd1f29dff47a475b5a5244890aecfec\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of March 31, Pinduoduo's annual active buyers reached 823.8 million, higher than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>811 million was announced not long ago, but it increased by 35.4 million quarter-on-quarter, setting a record low since the second quarter of 2019. So, what Pinduoduo will do next, in David Liu's words, is to improve user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfd024d1766a8c415add428c633cc71\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, Pinduoduo would publish the annual consumption data of active buyers in its financial report, but it was not disclosed in this quarter, so we can't intuitively see whether user stickiness has improved.</p><p>However, it can be seen from the many speeches of Pinduoduo executives that there are two ways for Pinduoduo to achieve this goal: one is to attract more brand merchants to settle in and expand categories, and the other is to buy more food. Among them, the latter is particularly important.</p><p>David Liu also revealed the latest progress of Duoduomaicai: At present, Duoduomaicai has carried out business in more than 300 major cities, and with the continuous improvement of local infrastructure, it has also brought the consumer behavior we want.</p><p>However, community group buying is gradually being brought into the scope of supervision. In March of this year, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed penalties on several leading community group buying companies, believing that these companies had behaviors such as \"burning money to grab the market and raising prices after monopoly.\" This status quo may bring some uncertainties to Pinduoduo's future plans.</p>","source":"lsy1580517846866","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe number of users has exceeded 800 million, surpassing Alibaba, what will Pinduoduo do next?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">腾讯科技</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-27 16:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the evening of May 26, Pinduoduo released its financial report for the first quarter of 2021. This is also the first financial report after Huang Zheng stepped down as chairman and Chen Lei took over as chairman.</p><p>The financial report shows that Pinduoduo's revenue in the first quarter was 22.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 239%; Under non-GAAP, the net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was 1.8903 billion yuan, a significant narrowing year-on-year; As of March 31, 2021, the number of annual active buyers in Pinduoduo reached 823.8 million, a net increase of 195.7 million over the same period last year.</p><p>Judging from these core data alone, Pinduoduo's report card seems to be pretty good. However, Pinduoduo's stock price bucked the trend and fell by more than 5% despite the general strength of technology stocks, which makes people wonder: Is Pinduoduo dying? After Huang Zheng steps down, can Chen Lei hold on to Pinduoduo's fundamentals? When the annual active buyers gradually touch the ceiling, where is Pinduoduo's growth point? This issue of Penguin Decoding reveals the secret for you.</p><p><b>Self-operated product sales stimulate revenue surge</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d698512649687888aa0083d9e2a3bb5\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo has launched a self-operated model, and the item of \"commodity revenue\" has also been added to its financial report. It is precisely because of this change that Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate has returned to above 100% since last year, and reached 239% in this quarter, setting a new high in the past two years. Since there was no \"commodity revenue\" in the second and third quarters of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue growth rate is expected to maintain rapid growth.</p><p>Different from the previous financial report, Pinduoduo did not announce the annualized GMV, so it is impossible to intuitively see the improvement of Pinduoduo's GMV by the self-operated business. However, in the conference call after the financial report, Cai Majing, vice president of finance of Pinduoduo, said that self-operated business is a channel made by the platform to temporarily meet the needs of consumers when merchants cannot meet the needs of consumers. This business is not Pinduoduo's strategic focus, so the GMV generated is very small for the overall platform.</p><p>Last quarter, Pinduoduo's annualized GMV was 1.67 trillion yuan, which was allocated to approximately 417.5 billion yuan per quarter. This quarter, Pinduoduo's revenue from self-operation was 5.124 billion yuan. It can be seen that this part contributed a lot to the growth of revenue, but it did have a very small impact on the improvement of GMV.</p><p>In addition, if this part is excluded, Pinduoduo's revenue is 17.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.64%, and the growth rate is a new high since the second half of 2019.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13abbd9d6ae21bfd2934ecf3dd120f09\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Judging from Pinduoduo's current revenue structure, commodity sales revenue has become the second largest business, and the largest business is still marketing services.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00e9c2aeb7995c7e8ab261b486215a95\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>This quarter, Pinduoduo's marketing service revenue was 14.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 157%, setting a new high in more than a year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2144822e2487bd30e637185daae3a88e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Although transaction service revenue accounts for the smallest proportion of Pinduoduo's revenue structure, the changes in this quarter are worth noting: revenue was 2.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180%. The former hit a record high, and the latter hit a new high in the past two years.</p><p>Some analysts also raised questions about this high growth during the conference call. In this regard, Ma Jing's answer is: first, driven by the growth of sales in the first quarter, and second, driven by the revenue growth of Duoduo's grocery shopping business.</p><p>But this answer did not uncover all the doubts. The fourth quarter of each year, due to the double 11 shopping spree, is the peak sales season of e-commerce platforms every year, and the revenue is significantly higher than other quarters. Pinduoduo is no exception, so the transaction service fee is in the fourth quarter of each year. It should also be the highest, and the first quarter of the following year should decrease month-on-month.</p><p>In the first quarter of this year, Pinduoduo's revenue fell by more than 4 billion yuan month-on-month. Theoretically, transaction service fees should also decline month-on-month, but the actual situation is that transaction service fees increased by 660 million yuan month-on-month. Therefore, it is still a question how Pinduoduo did it.</p><p><b>The proportion of marketing expenditure in revenue dropped significantly</b></p><p>Although the self-operated business has driven a surge in revenue, it has also been followed by a surge in revenue costs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e64f8819e655e3dfa16c973912565e\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Since the fourth quarter of last year, Pinduoduo's revenue cost has exceeded 10 billion yuan in one fell swoop, reaching 10.75 billion yuan this quarter, a year-on-year increase of 487%, far exceeding the revenue growth rate.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a03e45af744fc4bd761a04598c092a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>A direct consequence of the surge in revenue costs is the decline in gross profit. In the past few quarters, Pinduoduo's gross profit margin has always remained above 70%, but since the fourth quarter of last year, it has plummeted to 56.58%, and this quarter has further dropped to 51.52%. It is expected that Pinduoduo will gross profit margin for a long time. The profit margin cannot return to a high point.</p><p>In addition, the above picture also makes many people confused: Pinduoduo's gross profit margin is so high, why will it not be profitable for a long time? The answer is: Pinduoduo's marketing expenses remain high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a972a9bd17d86f6a47abfe83b1eb185a\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Pinduoduo's marketing expenses have exceeded 14 billion yuan for two consecutive quarters, and the growth rate of 157% has also reached a new high in the past two years, which is inseparable from the fact that Pinduoduo is increasing its support for Duoduomaicai.</p><p>But David Liu, vice president of strategy at Pinduoduo, mentioned in the conference call that the proportion of overall marketing expenses in revenue is declining.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00fe586c6f8ba26db5733db3498d5727\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Two years ago, Pinduoduo's marketing expenses exceeded revenue, accounting for more than 100%, but then this data has been greatly improved. In the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year, they were only 55.42% and 63.66% respectively..</p><p>This shows that Pinduoduo's marketing efficiency has improved, that is, marketing expenses have been reduced accordingly, which has not affected the growth of revenue. David Liu also said that Duoduo's grocery shopping business better meets the needs of users and expands the company's ability to fulfill contracts. These users also purchase more frequently. In terms of marketing expenditure, the company will also benefit in the long run.</p><p>In addition, the decline in the proportion of marketing expenses has also greatly improved Pinduoduo's profitability. In the first quarter of last year, marketing expenses accounted for 111.55%, so the loss in the same period reached 3.17 billion yuan, while this year it was only 1.89 billion yuan, which narrowed significantly year-on-year.</p><p><b>Improving user stickiness becomes Pinduoduo's next focus</b></p><p>In the conference call last quarter, David Liu warned: Given the current scale of users in Pinduoduo, I think it is inevitable that the growth rate of users will slow down in the next time. Combined with this quarter's data, unfortunately, it's right.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbd1f29dff47a475b5a5244890aecfec\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>As of March 31, Pinduoduo's annual active buyers reached 823.8 million, higher than<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a>811 million was announced not long ago, but it increased by 35.4 million quarter-on-quarter, setting a record low since the second quarter of 2019. So, what Pinduoduo will do next, in David Liu's words, is to improve user stickiness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfd024d1766a8c415add428c633cc71\" tg-width=\"641\" tg-height=\"401\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In the past, Pinduoduo would publish the annual consumption data of active buyers in its financial report, but it was not disclosed in this quarter, so we can't intuitively see whether user stickiness has improved.</p><p>However, it can be seen from the many speeches of Pinduoduo executives that there are two ways for Pinduoduo to achieve this goal: one is to attract more brand merchants to settle in and expand categories, and the other is to buy more food. Among them, the latter is particularly important.</p><p>David Liu also revealed the latest progress of Duoduomaicai: At present, Duoduomaicai has carried out business in more than 300 major cities, and with the continuous improvement of local infrastructure, it has also brought the consumer behavior we want.</p><p>However, community group buying is gradually being brought into the scope of supervision. In March of this year, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed penalties on several leading community group buying companies, believing that these companies had behaviors such as \"burning money to grab the market and raising prices after monopoly.\" This status quo may bring some uncertainties to Pinduoduo's future plans.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/omn/TEC20210/TEC2021052700661100.html\">腾讯科技</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e27455b9be3cc5a8935393c433d3875","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/omn/TEC20210/TEC2021052700661100.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2138140998","content_text":"5月26日晚间,拼多多发布了2021年第一季度财报,这也是黄峥卸任董事长、陈磊接任董事长之后的首份财报。\n财报显示,第一季度拼多多营收221.7亿元,同比增长239%;非通用会计准则下,归属于普通股股东的净亏损为18.903亿元,同比大幅收窄;截至2021年3月31日,拼多多年度活跃买家数达到8.238亿,较上一年同期净增1.957亿。\n单从这几个核心数据上看,拼多多的成绩单似乎还不错。但拼多多股价却在科技股普遍走强的情况下,逆势下挫超5%,不禁让人怀疑:拼多多不行了吗?黄峥卸任之后,陈磊能否守住拼多多的基本盘?年度活跃买家逐渐触碰天花板的时候,拼多多的增长点又在哪儿?本期《企鹅解码》为您揭秘。\n自营商品销售刺激营收大涨\n\n从去年第四季度开始,拼多多上线了自营模式,财报中也开始加入了“商品收入”一项。也正是由于这个变化,拼多多营收增速从去年开始重回100%之上,在本季度更是达到了239%,创下近两年新高。由于去年二三季度没有“商品收入”,预计拼多多的营收增速仍将维持高速增长。\n与之前财报不同,拼多多并没有公布年化GMV,因此无法直观看出自营业务对拼多多GMV的改善。但在财报结束后的电话会议上,拼多多财务副总裁财马靖表示,自营业务是在商家无法满足消费者需求的时候,平台所做的一个暂时满足需求的渠道,这个业务并不是拼多多的战略重点,所以产生的GMV对于整体平台来说是非常小的。\n上个季度,拼多多的年化GMV为1.67万亿元,分摊到每个季度约为4175亿元。本季度,拼多多来自自营的收入为51.24亿元,由此可见这部分对于营收的增长贡献很多,但对于GMV的提升,确实影响非常小。\n此外,如果将这部分刨除的话,拼多多的营收为170.46亿元,同比增长160.64%,增速为2019年下半年以来的新高。\n\n从拼多多当前营收结构来看,商品销售收入已成为第二大业务,第一大业务仍为营销服务。\n\n本季度,拼多多营销服务收入为141.1亿元,同比增长157%,创下近一年多以来的新高。\n\n交易服务收入虽然在拼多多的营收结构中占比最小,但是本季度的变化却值得注意:收入29.3亿元,同比增长180%,前者创下历史新高,后者创下近两年多以来的新高。\n也有分析师在电话会议上对这一高增长提出了疑问。对此,马靖的回答是:一是受一季度销售额的增长推动,二是受多多买菜业务营收增长的推动。\n但这个回答并没有揭开所有疑团。每年的第四季度,由于有双11购物狂欢,因此是电商平台每年的销售最旺季,营收也要显著高于其他季度,拼多多也并不例外,所以交易服务费用在每年的第四季度也应该是最高的,而次年的第一季度应该会环比下降。\n今年一季度拼多多的营收环比下降超40亿元,从理论上来看,交易服务费用也应该环比下滑,但实际情况是,交易服务费用环比增长了6.6亿元。因此,拼多多究竟是如何做到的,仍是一个疑问。\n营销支出占营收比重下降明显\n自营业务虽然带动营收大涨,但随之而来的也是营收成本的激增。\n\n从去年第四季度开始,拼多多的营收成本一举突破了100亿元,本季度达到了107.5亿元,同比增长487%,远超营收的增速。\n\n营收成本大增带来的一个直接后果就是毛利润的下滑。过去几个季度,拼多多的毛利率始终维持在70%以上,但是从去年第四季度开始,骤降至56.58%,本季度进一步降至51.52%,预计拼多多将在很长一段时间内,毛利率无法回至高点。\n此外,上图也让很多人产生一个困惑:拼多多的毛利率如此之高,为何会长期无法盈利?答案就在于:拼多多的市场营销费用居高不下。\n\n拼多多用于营销的费用已经连续两个季度超过了140亿元,157%的增速也创下了近两年的新高,这与拼多多正在加大对多多买菜的扶持分不开。\n但拼多多战略副总裁David Liu在电话会议上提到,整个营销费用在营收当中的占比是在下滑。\n\n两年前,拼多多的营销费用还超过营收,占比超过100%,但随后这一数据有了极大的改善,去年第四季度和今年第一季度,分别仅有55.42%和63.66%。\n这说明拼多多的营销效率出现了提升,即营销费用相应减少,并没有影响到营收的增长。David Liu还表示,多多买菜业务更好地满足了用户需求,拓展了公司的履约能力,这部分用户的购买频次也更高,在营销支出方面,长期而言公司也是受益的。\n此外,营销费用占比的下滑,还大幅改善了拼多多的盈利情况。去年一季度,营销费用占比达到了111.55%,因此同期亏损达到了31.7亿元,而今年仅为18.9亿元,同比大幅收窄。\n提高用户粘性成拼多多下一步重点\n在上个季度的电话会议上,David Liu曾预警:鉴于目前拼多多用户的规模,我认为不可避免的接下来的时间用户的增速将会放缓。结合本季度的数据来看,不幸言中。\n\n截止到3月31日的拼多多年度活跃买家达到了8.238亿人,高于阿里巴巴不久前公布的8.11亿,但环比增长3540万,创下了2019年第二季度以来的最低纪录。所以,拼多多下一步要做什么,用David Liu的话来说,就是要提高用户的粘性。\n\n过去拼多多会在财报中公布年度活跃买家的消费数据,但是这一季度并没有披露,因此我们无法直观地看到用户粘性是否有所提高。\n但是从拼多多高管的多次讲话可以看出来,拼多多达成这一目标的方式有两个:一个是吸引更多品牌商家的入驻,扩充品类,另一个则是多多买菜。其中,后者尤为重要。\nDavid Liu也透露了多多买菜的最新进展:目前多多买菜在300多个主要城市中都开展了业务,并且在随着当地基础设施的不断的改善,也带来了我们想要的消费者行为。\n但社区团购正在逐渐被纳入监管范围之内。今年3月,市场监管总局对几家头部的社区团购公司做出了处罚,认为这些公司存在“烧钱抢市场、垄断后提价”等行为。这一现状或许给拼多多未来的计划带来了一些不确定的因素。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"48394":0.9,"48568":0.9,"48579":0.9,"48677":0.9,"48687":0.9,"48698":0.9,"48699":0.9,"48711":0.9,"PDD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":136529430,"gmtCreate":1622030056720,"gmtModify":1704178123079,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/136529430","repostId":"1113676067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113676067","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622028675,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113676067?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-26 19:31","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113676067","media":"中国财富管理50...","summary":"摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席中国财富管理50人论坛举办的“经济增长形势分析闭门座谈会”,并作发言时表示,美国“高压经济学”政策刺激下通胀卷土重来,带来长期结构性通胀,给“俏也不争春”的中国经济","content":"<p>Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, attended the \"Closed-door Symposium on Economic Growth Situation Analysis\" held by the China Wealth Management 50 Forum, and said in his speech that inflation has returned under the stimulus of the \"high-pressure economics\" policy of the United States. Long-term structural inflation has brought external challenges to China's economic recovery, which is \"beautiful but not competing for spring\". At present, the recovery of China's manufacturing investment has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", but concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to the fact that consumption has not yet fully recovered, and there is no long-term risk of China's inflation.</p><p>Xing Ziqiang said that China's goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies, and the next step is to remain stable and grasp the policy rhythm. The essence of this year's regulatory \"storm\" lies in focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent, and the ultimate goal is to build a new regulatory framework and reduce systemic risks. In particular, the focus of this supervision is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance. In the future, regulatory policies will be more predictable and transparent, and pay more attention to policy communication, thereby reducing disturbances that bring uncertainty to the market.</p><p><b>Core Points</b></p><p>➢ First, the inflation trilogy plays out: rising commodity prices are the first part of the global spillover effects of U.S. high-pressure economics. The second chapter is the spiral of labor costs and inflation expectations caused by the overheating of the American economy. And<b>The final chapter of the resurgence of inflation, or the 3T reversal (anti-globalization, anti-platform giant, and fair income distribution), has pushed the Phillips curve to steep again, and long-term inflation has rebounded.</b></p><p>➢ Second, in response to global inflation, China can guide the reduction of commodity speculation in the short term and ensure stable supply expectations. In the medium and long term, China's current policy round has taken the lead in returning to normal, steadily withdrawing from stimulus, preventing asset bubbles,<b>The regulatory \"storm\" dares to \"gnaw the bones\", which is in sharp contrast to the loose stimulus of developed countries. \"China's economic governance\" provides the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era.</b></p><p>➢ Third, although the direction is correct, decision-makers can still reduce the uncertainty and disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication. More transparent policy change procedures can highlight<b>China's determination to focus on the long-term, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, and stabilize market confidence will help alleviate overseas misunderstandings of China's policy direction caused by cultural barriers under the trend of anti-globalization, thus laying a solid foundation for further internationalization of RMB.</b></p><p>The following is a transcript of the speech:</p><p><b>American \"High Pressure Economics\" and Cyclical Inflation</b></p><p>When China's developed economies continued to increase stimulus efforts, it took the lead in restoring normalized policies, focusing on stabilizing leverage, managing debt risks, and improving the long-term sustainability of the economy. This is a more rational choice, which can be described as \"not competing for spring\". But external challenges may have just begun.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, the author believes that the world will face a resurgence of inflation, especially the United States. At present, the U.S. economy is facing relatively major changes, not only the short-term overheating caused by Biden's stimulus, but also the policy \"left turn\" brought about by long-term inflation and anti-globalization thoughts. More attention is paid to fair distribution, which will lead to the resurgence of long-term inflation. China also has a great impact.</p><p>The goal of the \"high-pressure economics\" being built in the United States is not only to pursue GDP growth to return to the pre-epidemic trajectory, but to achieve income equity and maximize employment for low-and middle-income groups and the working class. In this process, the United States can condone or even actively seek the overshoot of economic growth, and not loosen the \"throttle\" until it achieves its goal, hoping to drive tension in the labor market and rise wages. In this process, the excess of stimulus policies is obvious. However, there is no free lunch in the world, and one of the side effects of \"high-pressure economics\" is inflation. If the U.S. economy overheats, the core inflation rate is likely to reach 2.5% by the end of this year.</p><p><b>Three drivers of U.S. inflation's comeback</b></p><p><b>First, the policy is extremely strong.</b>After launching the US $1.9 trillion rescue plan, the United States is still increasing its stimulus policies, and it is likely to pass an infrastructure stimulus plan close to US $2 trillion in the second half of the year. This plan has \"four pillars\":<b>One is</b>Old infrastructure, such as building roads and bridges, but this part only accounts for 1/3 of the plan;<b>The second is</b>New infrastructure, such as telecommunications and broadband industries;<b>Third,</b>Green Energy;<b>The fourth is</b>It's education and training.</p><p>At present, there is a high probability that the \"four pillars\" plan will be officially adopted in October and realized through budget coordination. Regarding the effect of this investment plan, judging from the investment situation of public projects in the United States in the past few decades, basically half of the funds will be allocated in the first or second years. The infrastructure plan will become another \"shot in the arm\" for the U.S. economic recovery, and the stimulus will be further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, vaccines are being rolled out extremely fast.</b>At present, the vaccine promotion in the United States is rapid, and the potential consumer demand is expected to be released again in the summer. This summer, American hotel and air ticket reservations are full, no less than China's May Day holiday.</p><p><b>Third, consumers have a lot of \"surplus food\".</b>This round of adjustment in the wealth of American consumers has not hurt their muscles and bones. On the contrary, after several rounds of financial assistance during the epidemic, U.S. residents currently have up to $2 trillion in excess savings in their accounts. Under such circumstances, as long as vaccines are in place and living habits are restored, the spending power of US $2 trillion is expected to be released explosively.</p><p>Driven by three major factors, the U.S. economy will definitely overheat this year, and cyclical inflationary pressures will rise significantly. Moreover, the United States did not rush to withdraw from this round of stimulus policies. It did not withdraw from fiscal policy when the unemployment rate remained at a high of 10% and monetary policy when the unemployment rate remained at 7%, as it did in 2009. In the first half of this year, the U.S. economic growth rate may be as high as 9.6%, and it will remain at 7% in the second half of this year, far exceeding the potential growth rate.</p><p>In terms of currency, the month-on-month growth rate of the US economy next year may be close to 5%, which is also a sign of overheating. From the perspective of the labor market, the current U.S. employment cost index has increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and it is difficult for productivity to rise simultaneously. Therefore, inflation is likely to come back. It is expected that U.S. core PCE inflation may reach 2.6% in the next few months.</p><p>At present, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not tighten monetary policy, so there is no need to worry about rising inflation. This is also the result of the Fed's repeated \"reassurance\" for everyone. However, if inflation exceeds expectations, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to start a \"shrinking balance sheet\" at the end of the year, and rate hike will also be early.</p><p><b>Long-term inflation makes a structural comeback</b></p><p>Many researchers mainly focus on whether this round of stimulus in the United States will significantly push up commodity prices, have a cost impact on China's PPI prices, and then affect China's economic and monetary policies. This direction is certainly worthy of attention, but it is only the first part of this big inflation cycle, and may not even be the main source of global and U.S. inflation in the next stage.</p><p>Whether inflation in the United States is rising or not, the next step is whether its economic trend of thought turns left and excessive stimulus can ultimately drive tension in the labor market. At present, the risk that long-term and structural inflation in the United States will return is not small: in the past 20 years, the United States has also taken some stimulus measures, but inflation has not risen in the end. But the three dominant forces that have kept inflation in check over the past 20 years are being reversed. These three forces are trade globalization, technology platformization, and income distribution enterprise. I summarize it as the \"3T\".</p><p><b>First, trade globalization.</b>At present, all countries are reflecting on the layout of trade chains. The cost of industrial chains in 5G, semiconductors, medical equipment and other fields in developed countries may rise, and the globalization trend is being reversed.</p><p><b>Second, technology platformization.</b>In the past 20 years, the world has connived at and encouraged the development of platform companies and Internet companies, believing that their R&D and innovation have improved productivity and suppressed price levels. However, the \"winner-takes-all\" situation has led to a widening gap between the rich and the poor, which has also caused countries to worry about potential risks. They have rereflected their regulatory attitude towards technology platform companies and begun to intervene in issues such as anti-monopoly, digital tax, and digital use supervision..</p><p><b>Third, income distribution should be enterprised.</b>This round of U.S. stimulus package clearly proposes to adjust income distribution. In the 1980s, the Reagan administration implemented policies such as small government, deregulation, low tax rate, and embracing globalization, which led to the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and capitalists and enterprises shared more and more \"cakes\". Bidenomics represents a correction of the role of small governments, hoping to adjust income distribution through measures such as raising taxes on enterprises, raising capital gains taxes, strengthening transfer payments to low-and middle-income groups, and even raising the federal minimum wage.</p><p>These three factors make this round of cyclical inflation in the United States not only a \"flash in the pan\", but a long-term and sustainable structural inflation.</p><p><b>China's inflationary pressure is far less than that of the United States</b></p><p>At present, China's economic recovery is uneven. Growth is mainly driven by manufacturing and exports, and the recovery of domestic consumption is still relatively slow.</p><p><b>In terms of external demand, the growth rate of the industrial sector has exceeded the potential growth rate by 5 percentage points, which not only fills the \"pit\" caused by the epidemic, but also shows a trend of exceeding the potential growth, but this cannot be sustained for a long time.</b>During the epidemic, the production chain of other countries was broken and the supply was insufficient, so China's export share continued to rise. But in the next three or four quarters, exports are expected to return slowly. Because the production capacity of various countries is gradually recovering and the consumption pattern is gradually returning to normal, normal service consumption will be carried out instead of shopping electronic products from China online at home.</p><p>During this round of epidemic, the long-term significance of China's export performance is that the resilience of China's manufacturing industry has passed the test. Last year, the global economy stagnated due to the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, and it was \"already a cliff of hundreds of feet of ice.\" However, China's \"unique flowers and branches\" took the lead in recovering, which also ensured a safe harbor for the global production and supply chain.</p><p>At present, due to the re-spread of the Novel Coronavirus variant and the renewed emergency of the epidemic in major emerging markets, the recovery of global supply is facing challenges again, so export orders continue to be transferred to the most stable and reliable Chinese supply chain. The utilization rate of manufacturing capacity has climbed to the highest level in history, the demand for long-term corporate loans has recovered steadily, and the import demand of industrial robots and machine tools is strong. These indicators all point to the recovery of China's manufacturing investment.</p><p>In view of the comparison of the performance of China and foreign countries under the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia, which has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", the growth rate of manufacturing investment this year is expected to pick up, surpassing the investment trajectory before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87abc1ed3051bb90f66fde6c714b3027\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 1: Manufacturing investment confidence recovers</b></p><p><b>In terms of domestic demand, China's current consumption growth rate is at least 2 to 3 percentage points lower than the potential growth rate before the epidemic.</b>The difference in consumption between China and the United States is very obvious. Why is China's consumption recovering slow?<b>One is</b>China has not adopted the direct transfer payment measures of western economies, such as issuing checks.<b>The second is</b>The recovery of the job market fell short of expectations. By tracking employment data, there are still many hidden unemployment in consumer fields such as offline retail, entertainment, and personal care, and the growth rate of online platform recruitment has only recovered by less than half.</p><p>As a result, concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to consumption not fully recovering yet. It is expected that after the third and fourth quarters, if the epidemic situation is steadily controlled, the full recovery of consumption can be realized.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b67ad8d78d608518fde1060e416bbdc\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 2: Consumption recovery is relatively slow</b></p><p><b>In terms of inflation, there is also a large gap between China and the United States.</b>The \"high-pressure economics\" of the United States is that it will not give up until it achieves its goal. Whether it is cyclical inflation or long-term inflation, it may come back. The rise in commodity and raw material prices in China mainly comes from the short-term pressure on corporate profits. Its transmission to overall inflation is relatively limited, and its impact on monetary policy is relatively small.</p><p>The recent excessive rise in commodity prices has caused market concerns. It is undeniable that the rise in raw material prices will squeeze the profits of downstream companies in the short term. In particular, some companies cannot raise prices in time because they need to complete orders in hand, so they must bear all cost pressures, or even make money at a loss. As a policy response, China has strengthened guidance to reduce commodity futures speculation, and can also increase domestic supply by adjusting the pace of production cuts in steel, aluminum, coal and other industries.</p><p>But overall, this round of commodity price inflation is largely due to global factors: excessive policy stimulus in developed countries has driven demand, while supply-side bottlenecks are still constrained, and some major foreign commodity exporting countries have failed to fully restore its production capacity due to the epidemic and other reasons.</p><p>However, the inflationary pressure facing China, especially the pressure on core consumer prices, is controllable. After all, the supply of goods and services in China has recovered the fastest, faster than domestic demand, while the demand side is still on a slow and step-by-step recovery trajectory. Compared with the supply-demand imbalance in overseas developed countries where the supply side is far from recovering, but demand has taken the lead, China's own inflationary pressure is limited. It is expected that the CPI will rebound moderately but not overheat. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI will be in May and June. It peaked above 8% in the month, and then entered a slow downward channel in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d48614e5c7ef7cc974897de32afdac6\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f177de6d9166486bb36096ffef9beb98\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 3: China's inflation has no long-term danger</b></p><p><b>Policy withdrawal has been achieved and the next step remains stable</b></p><p>At present, the financial regulatory policies that have been introduced can basically achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year, and the next step is to grasp the rhythm.</p><p>From last year's Central Economic Work Conference to this year's Politburo meeting, most policy directions are relatively clear. Specifically, in addition to the gradual return of fiscal policy to normal and the reduction of deficits, financial supervision and macro-prudential policies mainly include three aspects:<b>One is</b>Systemically important financial institutions should gradually expand their capacity, increase the requirements for the capital adequacy ratio of some banks,<b>The second is</b>Macro-prudential requirements for the \"three red lines\" of real estate and loan concentration,<b>Third,</b>It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of bond issuance by local financing platforms.</p><p>These policies are basically enough to achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year. Estimates show that by the third quarter of this year, the growth rate of total social financing will drop from 13.5% at the end of last year to 11.5% or even 11%. It is estimated that the nominal GDP growth rate this year is expected to be above 11%, and the social financing and nominal GDP growth rate will be basically consistent. Therefore, the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies.</p><p><b>Supervision \"storm\": penetrating the phenomenon to see the essence, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent</b></p><p>Many regulatory \"storms\" that started this year are essentially focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating talents. Including strong supervision of financial technology, anti-monopoly of platform companies, and carbon peaking actions, it seems that the market has been caught off guard, but they are in line with the direction of the new economic governance mechanism established by China in the past few years: plugging loopholes, making up for shortcomings, and stabilizing leverage to reduce systemic risks, avoiding financial crises, and improving social problems.</p><p>In fact, the recent new regulatory measures are the fourth round of regulatory \"storm\" in the past six years. The previous three rounds were the supply-side reform of industries with overcapacity from 2016 to 2018, the battle to resolve financial risks, and environmental protection governance. The macro background of their emergence is that the structural imbalance of China's economy has accumulated after 2008, and the demographic dividend has gradually dissipated. The growth rate of total factor productivity, which measures the sustainability of long-term growth, has been declining year by year, and the regulatory framework of some industries has failed to keep pace with the times after years of high growth.</p><p>Therefore, the ultimate goal of the above-mentioned rounds of regulatory \"storms\" since 2015 is to build a new regulatory framework, plug loopholes, make up shortcomings, and stabilize leverage to reduce systemic risks. Although there were some concerns about market confidence in the short term, the prices of market assets such as stocks were adjusted at that time; However, the \"short-term pain\" of strong supervision has finally brought significant long-term benefits to China's economy: the past several rounds of regulatory storms have finally improved the stability of China's financial system, stabilized the whole macro leverage ratio, reduced the debt risk, and did not continuously squeeze the vitality of the private sector, and the total factor productivity remained stable.</p><p>For example, after the capital outflow slowed down, the internationalization of RMB has started again under the three-pillar system of expanding financial opening, deepening domestic reform, and expanding the scope of use of RMB; China's financial system has become more resilient due to the clean-up of shadow banking, keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risks; In 2018, there were rounds of supervision for the Internet, medicine, games, education and other industries. In the end, it did not inhibit its subsequent benign development.</p><p>The recent supervision of technology platform companies also reflects the policy level's balance between \"short-term pain\" and long-term interests. Globally, policymakers and researchers are thinking that the rapidly rising monopoly position of large technology platforms may have squeezed the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises, exacerbated social problems such as the protection of the rich and the poor and workers, and may inhibit innovation and threaten financial stability in the long run. Therefore, the focus of China's supervision this time is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance.</p><p>Of course, before and after this process, the decision-making level can still reduce the uncertainty disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication, and further increase the predictability of policies. A more transparent policy environment can not only better demonstrate China's determination to take a long-term view, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, stabilize market confidence, but also help alleviate overseas policies on China caused by cultural barriers under the anti-globalization trend of thought. Misreading, thus making China expected to provide the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era and further consolidate the foundation for RMB internationalization.</p><p>In the next step, we should pay attention to the rhythm of the new policy. Because once regulatory policies are further tightened, social financing will fall more significantly, and it is easy to overshoot, which will have an impact on private sector confidence.</p>","source":"lsy1586655104126","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Xing Ziqiang: Why is this round of inflation different?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">中国财富管理50...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-26 19:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Xing Ziqiang, chief economist of Morgan Stanley China, attended the \"Closed-door Symposium on Economic Growth Situation Analysis\" held by the China Wealth Management 50 Forum, and said in his speech that inflation has returned under the stimulus of the \"high-pressure economics\" policy of the United States. Long-term structural inflation has brought external challenges to China's economic recovery, which is \"beautiful but not competing for spring\". At present, the recovery of China's manufacturing investment has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", but concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to the fact that consumption has not yet fully recovered, and there is no long-term risk of China's inflation.</p><p>Xing Ziqiang said that China's goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies, and the next step is to remain stable and grasp the policy rhythm. The essence of this year's regulatory \"storm\" lies in focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent, and the ultimate goal is to build a new regulatory framework and reduce systemic risks. In particular, the focus of this supervision is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance. In the future, regulatory policies will be more predictable and transparent, and pay more attention to policy communication, thereby reducing disturbances that bring uncertainty to the market.</p><p><b>Core Points</b></p><p>➢ First, the inflation trilogy plays out: rising commodity prices are the first part of the global spillover effects of U.S. high-pressure economics. The second chapter is the spiral of labor costs and inflation expectations caused by the overheating of the American economy. And<b>The final chapter of the resurgence of inflation, or the 3T reversal (anti-globalization, anti-platform giant, and fair income distribution), has pushed the Phillips curve to steep again, and long-term inflation has rebounded.</b></p><p>➢ Second, in response to global inflation, China can guide the reduction of commodity speculation in the short term and ensure stable supply expectations. In the medium and long term, China's current policy round has taken the lead in returning to normal, steadily withdrawing from stimulus, preventing asset bubbles,<b>The regulatory \"storm\" dares to \"gnaw the bones\", which is in sharp contrast to the loose stimulus of developed countries. \"China's economic governance\" provides the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era.</b></p><p>➢ Third, although the direction is correct, decision-makers can still reduce the uncertainty and disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication. More transparent policy change procedures can highlight<b>China's determination to focus on the long-term, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, and stabilize market confidence will help alleviate overseas misunderstandings of China's policy direction caused by cultural barriers under the trend of anti-globalization, thus laying a solid foundation for further internationalization of RMB.</b></p><p>The following is a transcript of the speech:</p><p><b>American \"High Pressure Economics\" and Cyclical Inflation</b></p><p>When China's developed economies continued to increase stimulus efforts, it took the lead in restoring normalized policies, focusing on stabilizing leverage, managing debt risks, and improving the long-term sustainability of the economy. This is a more rational choice, which can be described as \"not competing for spring\". But external challenges may have just begun.</p><p>Since the second half of last year, the author believes that the world will face a resurgence of inflation, especially the United States. At present, the U.S. economy is facing relatively major changes, not only the short-term overheating caused by Biden's stimulus, but also the policy \"left turn\" brought about by long-term inflation and anti-globalization thoughts. More attention is paid to fair distribution, which will lead to the resurgence of long-term inflation. China also has a great impact.</p><p>The goal of the \"high-pressure economics\" being built in the United States is not only to pursue GDP growth to return to the pre-epidemic trajectory, but to achieve income equity and maximize employment for low-and middle-income groups and the working class. In this process, the United States can condone or even actively seek the overshoot of economic growth, and not loosen the \"throttle\" until it achieves its goal, hoping to drive tension in the labor market and rise wages. In this process, the excess of stimulus policies is obvious. However, there is no free lunch in the world, and one of the side effects of \"high-pressure economics\" is inflation. If the U.S. economy overheats, the core inflation rate is likely to reach 2.5% by the end of this year.</p><p><b>Three drivers of U.S. inflation's comeback</b></p><p><b>First, the policy is extremely strong.</b>After launching the US $1.9 trillion rescue plan, the United States is still increasing its stimulus policies, and it is likely to pass an infrastructure stimulus plan close to US $2 trillion in the second half of the year. This plan has \"four pillars\":<b>One is</b>Old infrastructure, such as building roads and bridges, but this part only accounts for 1/3 of the plan;<b>The second is</b>New infrastructure, such as telecommunications and broadband industries;<b>Third,</b>Green Energy;<b>The fourth is</b>It's education and training.</p><p>At present, there is a high probability that the \"four pillars\" plan will be officially adopted in October and realized through budget coordination. Regarding the effect of this investment plan, judging from the investment situation of public projects in the United States in the past few decades, basically half of the funds will be allocated in the first or second years. The infrastructure plan will become another \"shot in the arm\" for the U.S. economic recovery, and the stimulus will be further strengthened.</p><p><b>Second, vaccines are being rolled out extremely fast.</b>At present, the vaccine promotion in the United States is rapid, and the potential consumer demand is expected to be released again in the summer. This summer, American hotel and air ticket reservations are full, no less than China's May Day holiday.</p><p><b>Third, consumers have a lot of \"surplus food\".</b>This round of adjustment in the wealth of American consumers has not hurt their muscles and bones. On the contrary, after several rounds of financial assistance during the epidemic, U.S. residents currently have up to $2 trillion in excess savings in their accounts. Under such circumstances, as long as vaccines are in place and living habits are restored, the spending power of US $2 trillion is expected to be released explosively.</p><p>Driven by three major factors, the U.S. economy will definitely overheat this year, and cyclical inflationary pressures will rise significantly. Moreover, the United States did not rush to withdraw from this round of stimulus policies. It did not withdraw from fiscal policy when the unemployment rate remained at a high of 10% and monetary policy when the unemployment rate remained at 7%, as it did in 2009. In the first half of this year, the U.S. economic growth rate may be as high as 9.6%, and it will remain at 7% in the second half of this year, far exceeding the potential growth rate.</p><p>In terms of currency, the month-on-month growth rate of the US economy next year may be close to 5%, which is also a sign of overheating. From the perspective of the labor market, the current U.S. employment cost index has increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and it is difficult for productivity to rise simultaneously. Therefore, inflation is likely to come back. It is expected that U.S. core PCE inflation may reach 2.6% in the next few months.</p><p>At present, the market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will not tighten monetary policy, so there is no need to worry about rising inflation. This is also the result of the Fed's repeated \"reassurance\" for everyone. However, if inflation exceeds expectations, it is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will eventually be forced to start a \"shrinking balance sheet\" at the end of the year, and rate hike will also be early.</p><p><b>Long-term inflation makes a structural comeback</b></p><p>Many researchers mainly focus on whether this round of stimulus in the United States will significantly push up commodity prices, have a cost impact on China's PPI prices, and then affect China's economic and monetary policies. This direction is certainly worthy of attention, but it is only the first part of this big inflation cycle, and may not even be the main source of global and U.S. inflation in the next stage.</p><p>Whether inflation in the United States is rising or not, the next step is whether its economic trend of thought turns left and excessive stimulus can ultimately drive tension in the labor market. At present, the risk that long-term and structural inflation in the United States will return is not small: in the past 20 years, the United States has also taken some stimulus measures, but inflation has not risen in the end. But the three dominant forces that have kept inflation in check over the past 20 years are being reversed. These three forces are trade globalization, technology platformization, and income distribution enterprise. I summarize it as the \"3T\".</p><p><b>First, trade globalization.</b>At present, all countries are reflecting on the layout of trade chains. The cost of industrial chains in 5G, semiconductors, medical equipment and other fields in developed countries may rise, and the globalization trend is being reversed.</p><p><b>Second, technology platformization.</b>In the past 20 years, the world has connived at and encouraged the development of platform companies and Internet companies, believing that their R&D and innovation have improved productivity and suppressed price levels. However, the \"winner-takes-all\" situation has led to a widening gap between the rich and the poor, which has also caused countries to worry about potential risks. They have rereflected their regulatory attitude towards technology platform companies and begun to intervene in issues such as anti-monopoly, digital tax, and digital use supervision..</p><p><b>Third, income distribution should be enterprised.</b>This round of U.S. stimulus package clearly proposes to adjust income distribution. In the 1980s, the Reagan administration implemented policies such as small government, deregulation, low tax rate, and embracing globalization, which led to the widening gap between the rich and the poor, and capitalists and enterprises shared more and more \"cakes\". Bidenomics represents a correction of the role of small governments, hoping to adjust income distribution through measures such as raising taxes on enterprises, raising capital gains taxes, strengthening transfer payments to low-and middle-income groups, and even raising the federal minimum wage.</p><p>These three factors make this round of cyclical inflation in the United States not only a \"flash in the pan\", but a long-term and sustainable structural inflation.</p><p><b>China's inflationary pressure is far less than that of the United States</b></p><p>At present, China's economic recovery is uneven. Growth is mainly driven by manufacturing and exports, and the recovery of domestic consumption is still relatively slow.</p><p><b>In terms of external demand, the growth rate of the industrial sector has exceeded the potential growth rate by 5 percentage points, which not only fills the \"pit\" caused by the epidemic, but also shows a trend of exceeding the potential growth, but this cannot be sustained for a long time.</b>During the epidemic, the production chain of other countries was broken and the supply was insufficient, so China's export share continued to rise. But in the next three or four quarters, exports are expected to return slowly. Because the production capacity of various countries is gradually recovering and the consumption pattern is gradually returning to normal, normal service consumption will be carried out instead of shopping electronic products from China online at home.</p><p>During this round of epidemic, the long-term significance of China's export performance is that the resilience of China's manufacturing industry has passed the test. Last year, the global economy stagnated due to the impact of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, and it was \"already a cliff of hundreds of feet of ice.\" However, China's \"unique flowers and branches\" took the lead in recovering, which also ensured a safe harbor for the global production and supply chain.</p><p>At present, due to the re-spread of the Novel Coronavirus variant and the renewed emergency of the epidemic in major emerging markets, the recovery of global supply is facing challenges again, so export orders continue to be transferred to the most stable and reliable Chinese supply chain. The utilization rate of manufacturing capacity has climbed to the highest level in history, the demand for long-term corporate loans has recovered steadily, and the import demand of industrial robots and machine tools is strong. These indicators all point to the recovery of China's manufacturing investment.</p><p>In view of the comparison of the performance of China and foreign countries under the epidemic in novel coronavirus pneumonia, which has consolidated the attractiveness of \"Made in China\", the growth rate of manufacturing investment this year is expected to pick up, surpassing the investment trajectory before the epidemic.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87abc1ed3051bb90f66fde6c714b3027\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 1: Manufacturing investment confidence recovers</b></p><p><b>In terms of domestic demand, China's current consumption growth rate is at least 2 to 3 percentage points lower than the potential growth rate before the epidemic.</b>The difference in consumption between China and the United States is very obvious. Why is China's consumption recovering slow?<b>One is</b>China has not adopted the direct transfer payment measures of western economies, such as issuing checks.<b>The second is</b>The recovery of the job market fell short of expectations. By tracking employment data, there are still many hidden unemployment in consumer fields such as offline retail, entertainment, and personal care, and the growth rate of online platform recruitment has only recovered by less than half.</p><p>As a result, concerns about employment and income uncertainty have led to consumption not fully recovering yet. It is expected that after the third and fourth quarters, if the epidemic situation is steadily controlled, the full recovery of consumption can be realized.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b67ad8d78d608518fde1060e416bbdc\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 2: Consumption recovery is relatively slow</b></p><p><b>In terms of inflation, there is also a large gap between China and the United States.</b>The \"high-pressure economics\" of the United States is that it will not give up until it achieves its goal. Whether it is cyclical inflation or long-term inflation, it may come back. The rise in commodity and raw material prices in China mainly comes from the short-term pressure on corporate profits. Its transmission to overall inflation is relatively limited, and its impact on monetary policy is relatively small.</p><p>The recent excessive rise in commodity prices has caused market concerns. It is undeniable that the rise in raw material prices will squeeze the profits of downstream companies in the short term. In particular, some companies cannot raise prices in time because they need to complete orders in hand, so they must bear all cost pressures, or even make money at a loss. As a policy response, China has strengthened guidance to reduce commodity futures speculation, and can also increase domestic supply by adjusting the pace of production cuts in steel, aluminum, coal and other industries.</p><p>But overall, this round of commodity price inflation is largely due to global factors: excessive policy stimulus in developed countries has driven demand, while supply-side bottlenecks are still constrained, and some major foreign commodity exporting countries have failed to fully restore its production capacity due to the epidemic and other reasons.</p><p>However, the inflationary pressure facing China, especially the pressure on core consumer prices, is controllable. After all, the supply of goods and services in China has recovered the fastest, faster than domestic demand, while the demand side is still on a slow and step-by-step recovery trajectory. Compared with the supply-demand imbalance in overseas developed countries where the supply side is far from recovering, but demand has taken the lead, China's own inflationary pressure is limited. It is expected that the CPI will rebound moderately but not overheat. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI will be in May and June. It peaked above 8% in the month, and then entered a slow downward channel in the second half of the year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d48614e5c7ef7cc974897de32afdac6\" tg-width=\"1\" tg-height=\"1\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f177de6d9166486bb36096ffef9beb98\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Figure 3: China's inflation has no long-term danger</b></p><p><b>Policy withdrawal has been achieved and the next step remains stable</b></p><p>At present, the financial regulatory policies that have been introduced can basically achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year, and the next step is to grasp the rhythm.</p><p>From last year's Central Economic Work Conference to this year's Politburo meeting, most policy directions are relatively clear. Specifically, in addition to the gradual return of fiscal policy to normal and the reduction of deficits, financial supervision and macro-prudential policies mainly include three aspects:<b>One is</b>Systemically important financial institutions should gradually expand their capacity, increase the requirements for the capital adequacy ratio of some banks,<b>The second is</b>Macro-prudential requirements for the \"three red lines\" of real estate and loan concentration,<b>Third,</b>It is necessary to strengthen the supervision of bond issuance by local financing platforms.</p><p>These policies are basically enough to achieve the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio this year. Estimates show that by the third quarter of this year, the growth rate of total social financing will drop from 13.5% at the end of last year to 11.5% or even 11%. It is estimated that the nominal GDP growth rate this year is expected to be above 11%, and the social financing and nominal GDP growth rate will be basically consistent. Therefore, the goal of stabilizing the macro leverage ratio can be achieved by current policies.</p><p><b>Supervision \"storm\": penetrating the phenomenon to see the essence, consolidating the foundation and cultivating the talent</b></p><p>Many regulatory \"storms\" that started this year are essentially focusing on the long-term, consolidating the foundation and cultivating talents. Including strong supervision of financial technology, anti-monopoly of platform companies, and carbon peaking actions, it seems that the market has been caught off guard, but they are in line with the direction of the new economic governance mechanism established by China in the past few years: plugging loopholes, making up for shortcomings, and stabilizing leverage to reduce systemic risks, avoiding financial crises, and improving social problems.</p><p>In fact, the recent new regulatory measures are the fourth round of regulatory \"storm\" in the past six years. The previous three rounds were the supply-side reform of industries with overcapacity from 2016 to 2018, the battle to resolve financial risks, and environmental protection governance. The macro background of their emergence is that the structural imbalance of China's economy has accumulated after 2008, and the demographic dividend has gradually dissipated. The growth rate of total factor productivity, which measures the sustainability of long-term growth, has been declining year by year, and the regulatory framework of some industries has failed to keep pace with the times after years of high growth.</p><p>Therefore, the ultimate goal of the above-mentioned rounds of regulatory \"storms\" since 2015 is to build a new regulatory framework, plug loopholes, make up shortcomings, and stabilize leverage to reduce systemic risks. Although there were some concerns about market confidence in the short term, the prices of market assets such as stocks were adjusted at that time; However, the \"short-term pain\" of strong supervision has finally brought significant long-term benefits to China's economy: the past several rounds of regulatory storms have finally improved the stability of China's financial system, stabilized the whole macro leverage ratio, reduced the debt risk, and did not continuously squeeze the vitality of the private sector, and the total factor productivity remained stable.</p><p>For example, after the capital outflow slowed down, the internationalization of RMB has started again under the three-pillar system of expanding financial opening, deepening domestic reform, and expanding the scope of use of RMB; China's financial system has become more resilient due to the clean-up of shadow banking, keeping the bottom line of no systemic financial risks; In 2018, there were rounds of supervision for the Internet, medicine, games, education and other industries. In the end, it did not inhibit its subsequent benign development.</p><p>The recent supervision of technology platform companies also reflects the policy level's balance between \"short-term pain\" and long-term interests. Globally, policymakers and researchers are thinking that the rapidly rising monopoly position of large technology platforms may have squeezed the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises, exacerbated social problems such as the protection of the rich and the poor and workers, and may inhibit innovation and threaten financial stability in the long run. Therefore, the focus of China's supervision this time is on technology giants, which actually leads a new trend of thought in global economic governance.</p><p>Of course, before and after this process, the decision-making level can still reduce the uncertainty disturbance brought to the market by strengthening policy communication, and further increase the predictability of policies. A more transparent policy environment can not only better demonstrate China's determination to take a long-term view, consolidate its foundation and cultivate its talents, stabilize market confidence, but also help alleviate overseas policies on China caused by cultural barriers under the anti-globalization trend of thought. Misreading, thus making China expected to provide the cornerstone for the global economic governance mechanism in the post-epidemic era and further consolidate the foundation for RMB internationalization.</p><p>In the next step, we should pay attention to the rhythm of the new policy. Because once regulatory policies are further tightened, social financing will fall more significantly, and it is easy to overshoot, which will have an impact on private sector confidence.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2_mdbG9LFrKJnE19_m2QKg\">中国财富管理50...</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24fa8350588843d92f819ac12ab5ce16","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2_mdbG9LFrKJnE19_m2QKg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113676067","content_text":"摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强出席中国财富管理50人论坛举办的“经济增长形势分析闭门座谈会”,并作发言时表示,美国“高压经济学”政策刺激下通胀卷土重来,带来长期结构性通胀,给“俏也不争春”的中国经济复苏带来外部挑战。当前,中国制造业投资复苏夯实“中国制造”吸引力,但对就业和收入不确定的担忧导致消费尚未完全恢复,中国的通胀并无长期之虞。\n邢自强表示,中国稳定宏观杠杆率的目标靠当前政策就可实现,下一步须保持稳健,把握政策节奏。今年监管“风暴”本质在于着眼长远,固本培元,最终目的是搭建新监管框架,降低系统性风险。尤其是此次监管焦点在科技巨头,实际上引领了全球经济治理新思潮。未来,监管政策将更预见性、更为透明,更注重政策沟通,从而减少给市场带来不确定性的扰动。\n核心要点\n➢第一,通胀三部曲奏响:大宗商品价格上涨是美国高压经济学对全球外溢效应的首部曲。第二章乃是美国经济过热带来劳动力成本与通胀预期的螺旋上升。而通胀卷土重来的最终章,或是3T逆转(逆全球化、逆平台巨头化、收入分配公平化)推动菲利普斯曲线重新陡峭,长期通胀回升。\n➢第二,应对全球通胀,中国短期内可引导减少大宗商品炒作,确保供给稳定预期。中长期,中国本轮政策率先回归常态,稳步退出刺激、防范资产泡沫、监管“风暴”敢于“啃骨头”,与发达国家竭泽焚薮的宽松刺激对比鲜明,“中国经济治理”为全球后疫情时代的经济治理机制提供了基石。\n➢第三,尽管方向正确,决策层仍可通过加强政策沟通去减少给市场带来的不确定性的扰动。更透明的政策变动程序,能彰显中国着眼长远、固本培元的决心,稳定市场信心,更有助于在逆全球化的趋势下,缓解因为文化隔阂引起的海外对中国政策走向的误读,从而夯实进一步人民币国际化的基础。\n以下为发言实录:\n美国“高压经济学”与周期性通胀\n中国在发达经济体继续加码刺激力度时,率先恢复了常态化政策,聚焦稳住杠杆,管理债务风险,改善经济的长期可持续性,这是一个比较理性的选择,可谓是“俏也不争春”。但外部挑战可能才刚刚开始。\n笔者从去年下半年开始,认为全球将面临通胀的卷土重来,特别是美国。目前美国经济面临比较大的变局,不只是拜登刺激引发的短期过热,更有长期通胀叠加逆全球化思潮带来的政策“左拐”,更加关注公平分配,这会导致长期通胀卷土重来,这对中国也有极大影响。\n美国正在打造的“高压经济学”,其目标不仅是追求GDP增速恢复到疫情前的轨迹,而是要实现收入的公平化,实现中低收入群体、工人阶级的最大化就业。在这一过程中,美国可以纵容甚至主动寻求经济增长的超调,不达目的不松“油门”,希望带动劳动力市场出现紧张和工资上涨。在这一过程中,刺激政策的超量显而易见。然而天下没有免费的午餐,“高压经济学”的副作用之一就是通货膨胀。如果美国经济过热,核心通胀率很有可能在今年底上探到2.5%。\n美国通胀卷土重来的三个动因\n第一,政策力度极大。在推出1.9万亿美元纾困计划后,美国还在加码刺激政策,很可能下半年再通过接近2万亿美元的基建刺激计划。这份计划共有“四大支柱”:一是老基建,如修路架桥等,但这部分仅占方案的1/3;二是新基建,比如电讯、宽带产业;三是绿色能源;四是是教育和培训。\n目前来看,“四大支柱”方案大概率会在10月份正式通过,用预算协调的方式加以实现。关于这一投资计划的效果,从过去几十年美国公共项目的投资情况来看,基本上一半的资金在第一、二年就会被拨款使用。基建计划将成为美国经济复苏的又一剂“强心针”,刺激力度会进一步加大。\n第二,疫苗推广极快。目前美国疫苗推广很快,潜在消费需求有望在夏天重新释放。今夏美国酒店、机票预定已爆满,不亚于中国的“五一”长假。\n第三,消费者“余粮”极多。美国消费者的财富本轮调整没有伤筋动骨,相反,经历了疫情期间数轮财政扶助,美国居民账户上目前有高达2万亿美元的多余储蓄。在这种情况下,只要疫苗到位、生活习惯恢复,2万亿美元的消费能力有望爆发性释放。\n在三大因素的推动下,今年美国经济肯定会出现过热,周期性通胀压力会明显抬升。且美国没有急于退出本轮刺激政策,没有像2009年一样,在失业率维持在10%高点时退出财政政策,在失业率7%时退出货币政策。今年上半年美国经济增速可能会高达9.6%,下半年还会维持在7%的水平,远超过潜在增速。\n货币方面,明年美国经济环比增速可能将接近5%,也是过热的表现。从劳动力市场看,目前美国雇佣成本指数已同比上升2.7%,而生产率难以同步上涨,因此通货膨胀大概率会卷土重来,预计美国核心PCE通胀可能在未来几个月达到2.6%。\n目前,市场普遍认为美联储不会收紧货币政策,所以无须担心通胀上扬,这也是美联储反复给大家吃“定心丸”的结果。但如果通胀超预期出现,不排除美联储最终被迫年底就开始“缩表”,加息也提早。\n长期通胀结构性卷土重来\n不少研究人士主要聚焦于美国本轮刺激是否会大幅推高大宗商品价格、对中国的PPI物价产生成本冲击、进而影响中国的经济和货币政策。这个方向当然值得关注,但它只是本轮通胀大周期的首部曲而已,甚至可能不是下阶段全球和美国通胀的主要来源。\n美国通胀是否上涨,下一步主要看点是其经济思潮左拐、超量刺激,最终能否带动劳动力市场的紧张。目前来看,美国长期、结构性通胀将卷土重来的风险不小:过去20年,美国也采取了一些刺激措施,但最终通胀都没有上涨。但过去20年抑制通胀的三股主导力量正在被逆转。这三股力量分别是贸易全球化、科技平台化、收入分配企业化。我将其总结为“3T”。\n第一,贸易全球化。目前各国都在反思贸易链布局,发达国家5G、半导体、医疗设备等领域的产业链成本可能会上升,全球化趋势正在被逆转。\n第二,科技平台化。过去20年,全球都在纵容和鼓励平台企业、互联网企业发展,认为他们的研发和创新提高了生产率、抑制了物价水平。但“赢家通吃”局面导致贫富差距不断加大,也引发了各国对潜在风险的担忧,重新反思对科技平台公司的监管态度,开始从反垄断、数字税、数字使用监管等问题着手干预。\n第三,收入分配企业化。本轮美国的刺激方案中明确提出要调节收入分配。80年代里根政府实施的小政府、去监管、低税率、拥抱全球化等政策,导致贫富差距不断加大,资本家和企业分得的“蛋糕”越来越多。拜登经济学代表了对小政府角色的纠偏,希望通过给企业加税、提高资本利得税、加强对中低收入群体的转移支付、甚至提高联邦最低工资等措施调节收入分配。\n这三个因素使得美国本轮不仅是“昙花一现”的周期性通胀,而是长期、可持续的结构性通胀。\n中国通胀压力远小于美国\n目前,中国的经济复苏并不均衡,增长主要依靠制造业和出口驱动,国内消费复苏依然较为缓慢。\n外需方面,工业部门增速已超过潜在增速5个百分点,不仅填平了疫情造成的“坑”,而且呈现超潜在增长态势,但这并不能长期持续。疫情期间,其他国家生产链断裂,供给不足,所以中国出口份额不断上升。但未来三、四季度,预计出口会缓慢回归。因为各国生产能力逐渐恢复,消费模式也逐步回归正常,会进行正常的服务消费,而不是在家里网购来自中国的电子产品了。\n这一轮疫情期间,中国出口表现的长期意义在于,中国制造业的韧性通过了考验。去年全球经济由于新冠肺炎疫情冲击而停滞,“已是悬崖百丈冰”,而中国“独有花枝俏”率先复苏,也确保了全球生产供应链的安全港。\n而当前,各大新兴市场由于新冠病毒变种的再次扩散、疫情再次告急,全球供应的复苏重新面临挑战,因而出口订单继续转移至最为稳定可靠的中国供应链。制造业产能利用率已攀升至历史最高位、企业长期贷款的需求稳健复苏、工业机器人、机床设备的进口需求旺盛,这些指标均指向中国制造业投资的复苏。\n鉴于中外在新冠肺炎疫情下的表现对比,夯实了“中国制造”的吸引力,今年的制造业投资增速有望回升,超越疫情前的投资轨迹。\n\n图1:制造业投资信心复苏\n内需方面,目前中国消费增速比疫情前的潜在增速水平至少低2~3个百分点。中美在消费方面的差异非常明显。为什么中国消费恢复缓慢?一是中国并没有采取西方经济体那种直接的转移支付措施,如发支票。二是就业市场的恢复情况未达预期。通过对就业数据进行追踪,线下零售、娱乐、个人护理等消费领域还有很多隐性失业,在线平台招聘增速也仅仅恢复了不到一半。\n因此,对就业和收入不确定的担忧导致消费尚没有完全恢复。预计三、四季度以后,若疫情得到稳步控制,消费的全面恢复才能实现。\n\n图2:消费恢复相对缓慢\n通胀方面,中美之间也存在较大的差距。美国“高压经济学”是不达目的不罢休,无论是周期性通胀、还是长期通胀,可能卷土重来。而中国大宗商品和原材料价格的上涨则主要来自于企业利润的短期承压,它对整体通胀的传导是比较有限的,对货币政策的影响也相对较小。\n近期大宗商品价格过快上涨引发了市场担忧,不可否认,原材料价格上涨将会在短期挤压下游企业利润,特别是部分企业因需要完成在手订单无法及时提价,从而必须承受所有的成本压力,甚至赔本赚吆喝。作为政策应对,中国通过加强引导来减少大宗商品期货炒作,还可通过调整钢、铝、煤炭等行业的减产节奏来提升国内供给。\n但总体而言,这一轮大宗商品价格通胀很大程度上源于全球因素:发达国家政策超量刺激,带动了需求,而供给侧瓶颈仍然掣肘,国外一些主要大宗商品出口国因疫情等原因未能完全恢复其产能。\n但中国面临的通胀压力,特别是核心消费物价的压力是可控的,毕竟中国的商品和服务的供给复苏最为迅速,快于国内需求,需求侧则尚处于缓慢按部就班回升轨迹。这与海外发达国家供给侧远远没有恢复、但需求已率先领跑的供需失衡相比,中国自身的通胀压力有限,预计CPI会温和回升但不会过热,PPI同比增速将于5、6月份触顶到8%之上,之后在下半年步入缓慢下行通道。\n\n图3:中国的通胀并无长期之虞\n政策退出已经实现 下一步保持稳健\n当前已出台的金融监管政策已经基本可以达成今年稳定宏观杠杆率的目标,下一步须把握节奏。\n从去年中央经济工作会到今年的政治局会议之间,多数政策方向比较明确,具体来看,除了财政政策逐步回归常态,减少赤字以外,金融监管和宏观审慎政策主要有三方面:一是系统重要性金融机构要逐渐扩容,提高对部分银行资本充足率的要求、二是对房地产“三道红线”、贷款集中度的宏观审慎要求,三是要加强对地方融资平台发债的监管。\n这些政策基本足够达成今年稳定宏观杠杆率的目标。测算显示,到今年三季度,社会融资总量增速将从去年底的13.5%回落到11.5%、甚至11%。而预计今年名义GDP增速预计在11%以上,社融和名义GDP增速将基本吻合,所以稳定宏观杠杆率的目标靠当前的政策就可以实现。\n监管“风暴”:穿透现象看本质,固本培元\n今年开始的诸多监管“风暴”本质上是着眼长远,固本培元。包括金融科技强监管,平台企业反垄断,和碳达峰行动,似乎让市场有些措手不及,但它们符合过去几年中国树立的经济治理新机制的方向:堵漏洞、补短板、稳杠杆来降低系统性风险,避免金融危机,改善社会问题。\n事实上,近期的监管新举措已是过去六年来第四轮的监管“风暴”。此前三轮分别是2016到2018年的对产能过剩行业的供给侧改革、化解金融风险攻坚战,和环保治理。它们应运而生的宏观背景是,中国经济在2008年后的结构性失衡不断累积,人口红利逐步消散。衡量长期增长可持续性的全要素生产率增速逐年走低,部分行业的监管框架在长年高增长后未能与时俱进。\n因此,自2015年以来的上述数轮监管“风暴”,最终目的是搭建新的监管框架,堵漏洞、补短板、稳杠杆来降低系统性风险。虽然在短期内对市场信心产生了一些担忧,股票等市场资产价格当时有所调整;但是,强监管的“短痛”最终给中国经济带来显著的长期利益:过去数轮监管风暴,最终都提升了中国金融体系的稳健性,使整个宏观杠杆率企稳、债务风险降低、且没有持续挤压私人部门活力,全要素生产率依然保持了平稳。\n譬如,资本外流趋缓后,人民币国际化已经在扩大金融开放、深化国内改革、以及拓展人民币的使用范围的三支柱体系下重新起航;中国金融体系因影子银行清理变得更有韧性,守住了不发生系统性金融风险的底线;而2018年针对互联网、医药、游戏、教育等行业的历轮监管。最终并未抑制其后续的良性发展。\n最近对科技平台企业的监管同样反映了政策层对“短痛”和长远利益的权衡。全球范围内,决策者和研究者都在思考,大型科技平台迅速上升的垄断地位可能已经挤压了中小企业的生存空间,加剧了贫富和劳动者保护等社会问题,并可能在长期或许会抑制创新、威胁金融稳定。因此,此次中国监管的焦点在科技巨头,实际上是引领了全球经济治理的新思潮。\n当然,在这一过程前后,决策层仍可通过加强政策沟通减少给市场带来的不确定性的扰动,进一步增加政策可预见性。一个更为透明的政策环境不仅更能彰显中国着眼长远、固本培元的决心,稳定市场信心,更有助于在逆全球化的思潮下,缓解因为文化隔阂引起的海外对中国政策走向的误读,从而使得中国有望为全球后疫情时代的经济治理机制提供基石,进一步夯实人民币国际化的基础。\n下一步,要注意新政策的节奏。因为一旦进一步收紧监管政策,社融会更大幅度地下跌,则容易超调,对私人部门信心产生影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":138203549,"gmtCreate":1621939780881,"gmtModify":1704364780194,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","idStr":"3570426589852260"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/138203549","repostId":"1118239674","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118239674","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇投资学苑","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c"},"pubTimestamp":1621937890,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1118239674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-05-25 18:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Some companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118239674","media":"格隆汇投资学苑","summary":"预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n\n今日,生物疫苗板块高开,截至收盘,科兴制药飙涨逾11%,仁和药业、未名医药涨停,赛升药业大涨超14%,康泰生物、沃森生物、康希诺-U等跟涨。\n","content":"<p>It is estimated that the global sales of COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion. Today, the biological vaccine sector opened higher. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688136\">Sinovac</a>Soared more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000650\">Renhe Pharmaceutical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002581\">Unnamed Medicine</a>Daily limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300485\">Saisheng Pharmaceutical</a>Soared more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300601\">Kangtai Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a>, CanSino-U, etc. followed suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f78105d46d2f9369bc879c2844fc482\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news,<b>Yesterday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01177\">China Biopharmaceuticals</a>Announced its first quarter results, revealing that Sinovac Zhongwei's first quarter profit may reach 10 billion yuan. If Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 profit reaches 10 billion yuan, this will create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">China Pharmaceutical</a>The industry's single-quarter revenue and profit history.</b>Affected by this good news, the biological vaccine sector rose today.</p><p>However, after China Biopharmaceuticals, which announced its results, opened 4.86% higher, it went down all the way. As of the close, it fell 2.87%.</p><p>Another difference from what everyone thinks is that today's surge in Sinovac Pharmaceuticals is not Sinovac Zhongwei, which produces COVID-19 vaccine rights, and there is no equity relationship between them. The former is an innovative biopharmaceutical company mainly engaged in the integration of R&D, production and sales of recombinant protein drugs and microecological preparations, focusing on drug research and development in antiviral, blood, tumor and immunity, degenerative disease and other therapeutic fields.</p><p>The Q1 performance of China Biopharmaceuticals shows that the company's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 16.4% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent was 1.9 billion yuan, an increase of 118.5% over the same period last year. Among them, the profit attributable to associated companies and a joint venture company in the first quarter reached 1.476 billion yuan, which achieved a leap-forward growth compared with only 2.493 million yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In December last year, China Biopharmaceuticals announced that it would invest US $515 million (approximately HK $4 billion) in Sinovac Zhongwei, holding 15.03% of its equity. Therefore, the market speculates that the profit of China Biopharmaceuticals in the first quarter rose sharply, which may mainly benefit from the profit contribution of Sinovac Zhongwei.<b>Based on China Biopharmaceuticals' profit of nearly 1.5 billion yuan and its 15% equity in Sinovac Zhongwei, Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 net profit may be nearly 10 billion yuan.</b></p><p>According to the audit materials submitted by Sinovac Zhongwei to the WHO, as of April 1, 2021, the cumulative shipment of Sinovac Zhongwei's COVID-19 inactivated vaccine to 27 countries around the world exceeded 2.7 billion doses.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities speculate that 21Q1 should be around 200 million doses. It is estimated that the net profit of a single inactivated vaccine is 50 yuan, and the net profit rate is about 40-50%. This is consistent with the market's speculation that Sinovac Zhongwei has a net profit of nearly 10 billion.</p><p><b>The demand in COVID-19 vaccine is huge. According to the report of the National Health and Health Commission on the 24th, more than 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been vaccinated nationwide. According to the calculation of 100 yuan per dose, a market of approximately 50 billion yuan has been generated.</b></p><p>According to public data, the cumulative number of vaccinations in COVID-19 vaccine nationwide exceeded 100 million doses on March 27, and exceeded 200 million by April 21, which took 25 days. It took 16 days to vaccinate more than 300 million doses from 200 million doses on May 7, 9 days to exceed 400 million doses on May 16, and only 7 days to exceed 500 million doses on May 23. It can be predicted that the vaccination speed in China will accelerate.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>The outbreak of the epidemic in India has changed the original epidemic expectation. The possible impact of Indian and South African mutant strains on the immune efficacy of existing vaccines makes vaccination not limited to one time, but a large variety that needs to be vaccinated regularly. In addition, the European Union will open the \"New Crown Pass\" on July 1. It is expected that other countries will gradually implement similar \"New Crown Passes\" and gradually open up free movement in some areas and around the world. Sales in COVID-19 vaccine are sustainable. The demand for vaccines is expected to continue to increase in the future.</b></p><p>Since December last year, the UAE became the first country to approve Chinese-made COVID-19 vaccine, Sinopharm Zhongsheng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SVA\">Sinovac Biotech</a>And CanSino's vaccines began to arrive in overseas markets. By the end of the first quarter of this year, China had exported vaccines to 43 countries, with an export volume of 11.9 billion yuan, far exceeding that of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91032d4da2d6484fd56120d752caff02\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Zhiyan Consulting</p><p>The vaccine industry continues to be hot. The biological vaccine index has soared sharply since 2019. The increase in 2020 was 111%. After the outbreak of the epidemic, based on COVID-19 vaccine logic, the index maintained an upward trend, reaching its peak in July and August. After that, with the approval of COVID-19 vaccine and changes in sales expectations, there was a substantial correction, and the valuation returned to a relatively reasonable range, and the recent trend has rebounded again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/219efc61acdafe285f5aa0f13ad35eea\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In 2021, COVID-19 vaccine companies will enter a period of performance realization, and many institutions are optimistic about the vaccine industry. It is estimated that global COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion.</b></p><p>Currently, with the industry dividend period, the stock prices of companies related to the vaccine industry have begun to shine. 100 billion market capitalization leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a>The daily limit has been 36 times in the past year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>, Watson Bio's stock price has repeatedly hit record highs.</p><p>In addition, the revenue of related companies in the vaccine industry chain has increased significantly. For example, mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of non-PVC soft bags, glass bottles for large infusions, supporting pharmaceutical packaging materials, medical devices and other products<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300110\">Huaren Pharmaceutical</a>, the 2020 annual report shows that the company achieved operating income of 1.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94.624 million yuan, an increase of 124.94% over the same period last year, and both revenue and profit reached the best in history.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome companies may make a huge profit of 10 billion in the first quarter! How profitable is the vaccine industry?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d7d04eb4f16b0013ed2c39f71b84b6c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇投资学苑 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-25 18:18</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is estimated that the global sales of COVID-19 vaccine in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion. Today, the biological vaccine sector opened higher. As of the close,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688136\">Sinovac</a>Soared more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000650\">Renhe Pharmaceutical</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002581\">Unnamed Medicine</a>Daily limit,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300485\">Saisheng Pharmaceutical</a>Soared more than 14%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300601\">Kangtai Biotech</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300142\">Watson Bio</a>, CanSino-U, etc. followed suit.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f78105d46d2f9369bc879c2844fc482\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"526\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>On the news,<b>Yesterday<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01177\">China Biopharmaceuticals</a>Announced its first quarter results, revealing that Sinovac Zhongwei's first quarter profit may reach 10 billion yuan. If Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 profit reaches 10 billion yuan, this will create<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600056\">China Pharmaceutical</a>The industry's single-quarter revenue and profit history.</b>Affected by this good news, the biological vaccine sector rose today.</p><p>However, after China Biopharmaceuticals, which announced its results, opened 4.86% higher, it went down all the way. As of the close, it fell 2.87%.</p><p>Another difference from what everyone thinks is that today's surge in Sinovac Pharmaceuticals is not Sinovac Zhongwei, which produces COVID-19 vaccine rights, and there is no equity relationship between them. The former is an innovative biopharmaceutical company mainly engaged in the integration of R&D, production and sales of recombinant protein drugs and microecological preparations, focusing on drug research and development in antiviral, blood, tumor and immunity, degenerative disease and other therapeutic fields.</p><p>The Q1 performance of China Biopharmaceuticals shows that the company's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 16.4% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent was 1.9 billion yuan, an increase of 118.5% over the same period last year. Among them, the profit attributable to associated companies and a joint venture company in the first quarter reached 1.476 billion yuan, which achieved a leap-forward growth compared with only 2.493 million yuan in the same period last year.</p><p>In December last year, China Biopharmaceuticals announced that it would invest US $515 million (approximately HK $4 billion) in Sinovac Zhongwei, holding 15.03% of its equity. Therefore, the market speculates that the profit of China Biopharmaceuticals in the first quarter rose sharply, which may mainly benefit from the profit contribution of Sinovac Zhongwei.<b>Based on China Biopharmaceuticals' profit of nearly 1.5 billion yuan and its 15% equity in Sinovac Zhongwei, Sinovac Zhongwei's Q1 net profit may be nearly 10 billion yuan.</b></p><p>According to the audit materials submitted by Sinovac Zhongwei to the WHO, as of April 1, 2021, the cumulative shipment of Sinovac Zhongwei's COVID-19 inactivated vaccine to 27 countries around the world exceeded 2.7 billion doses.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601211\">Guotai Junan</a>Securities speculate that 21Q1 should be around 200 million doses. It is estimated that the net profit of a single inactivated vaccine is 50 yuan, and the net profit rate is about 40-50%. This is consistent with the market's speculation that Sinovac Zhongwei has a net profit of nearly 10 billion.</p><p><b>The demand in COVID-19 vaccine is huge. According to the report of the National Health and Health Commission on the 24th, more than 500 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have been vaccinated nationwide. According to the calculation of 100 yuan per dose, a market of approximately 50 billion yuan has been generated.</b></p><p>According to public data, the cumulative number of vaccinations in COVID-19 vaccine nationwide exceeded 100 million doses on March 27, and exceeded 200 million by April 21, which took 25 days. It took 16 days to vaccinate more than 300 million doses from 200 million doses on May 7, 9 days to exceed 400 million doses on May 16, and only 7 days to exceed 500 million doses on May 23. It can be predicted that the vaccination speed in China will accelerate.</p><p>Furthermore,<b>The outbreak of the epidemic in India has changed the original epidemic expectation. The possible impact of Indian and South African mutant strains on the immune efficacy of existing vaccines makes vaccination not limited to one time, but a large variety that needs to be vaccinated regularly. In addition, the European Union will open the \"New Crown Pass\" on July 1. It is expected that other countries will gradually implement similar \"New Crown Passes\" and gradually open up free movement in some areas and around the world. Sales in COVID-19 vaccine are sustainable. The demand for vaccines is expected to continue to increase in the future.</b></p><p>Since December last year, the UAE became the first country to approve Chinese-made COVID-19 vaccine, Sinopharm Zhongsheng,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SVA\">Sinovac Biotech</a>And CanSino's vaccines began to arrive in overseas markets. By the end of the first quarter of this year, China had exported vaccines to 43 countries, with an export volume of 11.9 billion yuan, far exceeding that of last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91032d4da2d6484fd56120d752caff02\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Zhiyan Consulting</p><p>The vaccine industry continues to be hot. The biological vaccine index has soared sharply since 2019. The increase in 2020 was 111%. After the outbreak of the epidemic, based on COVID-19 vaccine logic, the index maintained an upward trend, reaching its peak in July and August. After that, with the approval of COVID-19 vaccine and changes in sales expectations, there was a substantial correction, and the valuation returned to a relatively reasonable range, and the recent trend has rebounded again.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/219efc61acdafe285f5aa0f13ad35eea\" tg-width=\"997\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>In 2021, COVID-19 vaccine companies will enter a period of performance realization, and many institutions are optimistic about the vaccine industry. It is estimated that global COVID-19 vaccine sales in 2021 are expected to exceed US $50 billion.</b></p><p>Currently, with the industry dividend period, the stock prices of companies related to the vaccine industry have begun to shine. 100 billion market capitalization leader<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603392\">Wantai Biotech</a>The daily limit has been 36 times in the past year;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600196\">Fosun Pharma</a>, Watson Bio's stock price has repeatedly hit record highs.</p><p>In addition, the revenue of related companies in the vaccine industry chain has increased significantly. For example, mainly engaged in the research and development, production and sales of non-PVC soft bags, glass bottles for large infusions, supporting pharmaceutical packaging materials, medical devices and other products<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300110\">Huaren Pharmaceutical</a>, the 2020 annual report shows that the company achieved operating income of 1.616 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 94.624 million yuan, an increase of 124.94% over the same period last year, and both revenue and profit reached the best in history.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e474d690ea02c536f0fd4c03fc3ddef","relate_stocks":{"300142":"沃森生物","300485":"赛升药业","300601":"康泰生物","688136":"科兴制药","688185":"康希诺","002581":"ST未名","000650":"仁和药业"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118239674","content_text":"预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n\n今日,生物疫苗板块高开,截至收盘,科兴制药飙涨逾11%,仁和药业、未名医药涨停,赛升药业大涨超14%,康泰生物、沃森生物、康希诺-U等跟涨。\n\n消息面上,昨日中国生物制药公布了一季报业绩,透露科兴中维一季度利润或达100亿元,如果科兴中维Q1盈利达百亿,这将创造中国医药产业的单季度营收和利润历史记录。受此利好消息影响,今日生物疫苗板块行情上涨。\n然而,公布业绩的中国生物制药高开4.86%后,一路走低,截至收盘,跌2.87%。\n另与大家认为的不同的是,今日大涨科兴制药并不是生产新冠疫苗的科兴中维,他们之间也并无任何股权关系。前者是一家主要从事重组蛋白药物和微生态制剂的研发、生产、销售一体化的创新型生物制药企业,专注于抗病毒、血液、肿瘤与免疫、退行性疾病等治疗领域的药物研发。\n中国生物制药Q1业绩显示,公司营收72亿元,较去年同期增长约16.4%;归母净利润19亿元,较去年同期增长118.5%。其中,首季应占联营公司及一家合营公司盈利达到14.76亿元,相比上年同期仅249.3万元实现了跨越式增长。\n去年12月份,中国生物制药宣布向科兴中维出资5.15亿美元(约40亿港元),持有其15.03%权益。因此,市场推测中国生物制药首季盈利大升,或主要受惠科兴中维利润贡献。根据中国生物制药近15亿元盈利,以及在科兴中维的15%权益计算,科兴中维Q1净利润或近100亿。\n根据科兴中维向 WHO递交的审计材料,截止21年4月1日,科兴中维新冠灭活疫苗向全球27个国家累计发货量超27亿剂,国泰君安证券推测21Q1应该在2亿剂左右,测算灭活疫苗单支净利润在50元,净利率约40-50%,这与市场推测科兴中维近100亿净利润想符合。\n新冠疫苗需求量巨大,根据国家卫健委24日通报,全国新冠疫苗接种超过5亿剂次。按照每剂100元计算,大约产生了500亿元市场。\n根据公开数据,3月27日全国新冠疫苗累计接种突破1亿剂次,至4月21日突破2亿,用了25天。从2亿剂次到5月7日接种超过3亿剂次用了16天,到5月16日突破4亿剂次用了9天时间,再到23日突破5亿剂次则只用了7天时间。可以预测,中国疫苗接种速度还将加快。\n此外,印度疫情爆发,使原有的疫情预期发生改变。印度、南非变异株等对现有疫苗免疫效力可能产生的影响,使疫苗接种可能不仅限于一次,而是需要定期接种的大品种。另欧盟将在7月1日开通“新冠通行证”,预计其他国家也将在随后逐步实行类似的“新冠通行证”逐步开放部分地区直至全球的自由流动,新冠疫苗销售具备持续性。预计未来疫苗需求量还将继续增加。\n自去年12月,阿联酋成为第一个批准中国产新冠疫苗的国家后,国药中生、科兴生物和康希诺的疫苗开始运抵海外市场。今年一季度末时,中国已向 43 个国家出口了疫苗,出口额达到 119 亿元,远超去年全年。\n\n图源:智妍咨询\n疫苗行业热度不减。2019年以来生物疫苗指数大幅飙升。2020年涨幅为111%。疫情爆发后,基于新冠疫苗逻辑,指数维持上涨走势,7、8月份达到峰值。之后随新冠疫苗获批及销售预期变动,出现大幅度回调,估值重回相对合理区间,近期走势重新回升。\n\n2021年新冠疫苗企业进入业绩兑现期,多家机构对疫苗行业持乐观态度,预计全球2021年新冠疫苗销售额有望突破500亿美元。\n当前,伴随行业红利期,疫苗行业相关公司股价已经开始大放异彩。千亿市值龙头万泰生物近一年内涨停36次;复星医药、沃森生物股价屡创历史新高。\n此外,疫苗产业产业链上的相关公司营收大增。比如主要从事非PVC软袋、玻瓶大输液、配套医药包材、医疗器械等产品的研发、生产与销售的华仁药业,2020年年报显示,公司实现营业收入为16.16亿元,同比增长10.56%;实现归母净利润9462.4万元,较上年同期增长124.94%,营收利润双双达到历史最佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"300142":0.9,"300485":0.9,"300601":0.9,"688136":0.9,"688185":0.9,"000650":0.9,"002581":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}