To The Moon

1.0 Executive Summary Market Sentiment: Global markets are trading with a distinct "risk-off" tone as "AI jitters" trigger a broad sell-off in technology stocks, spilling over into commodities and high-beta currencies. The US Dollar has steadied after recent weakness, while the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc are outperforming as investors seek safety. Geopolitical tensions remain a backdrop, with the market closely watching US-Iran negotiations and the ongoing "noisy" interpretation of US labor data. Key Themes: Macro Ambiguity: The US January NFP report delivered a "headline beat" of 130k jobs but was undermined by massive negative revisions (-862k through March 2025), complicating the Fed's policy path [Saxo]. JPY Resurgence: Hedge funds have aggressively flipped to a net bullish stance on

Selloff in Brent yesterday means improving risk-reward on going going long Brent now with the fundamental factors predicting a FV of about 69. However with CTA Brent positioning still near highs (longs), we could see more selling pressure so I suggest wait till their selling is done before going long (next big selling point is at 64 levels)

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil markets have trended lower, with prices for both Brent and WTI under pressure as the International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a bearish report highlighting weak demand growth and swelling global inventories. The IEA slashed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, citing a significant slowdown in Chinese consumption and the rapid electrification of the transport sector. This bearish outlook was compounded by data showing that global oil stockpiles surged in 2025 by the most since the pandemic year of 2020, signaling a well-supplied market. Prices were further weighed down by the prospect of rising non-OPEC+ production, which the IEA expects to outpace demand growth, leading to a substantial market surplus throughout the year. Despite the bearish funda

Bitcoin (BTC) Bearish Sentiment Persists Despite Long-Term Optimism Bitcoin is currently trading around $65,924, showing a decrease of approximately 2.28% over the last 24 hours. The market is grappling with a mix of bearish on-chain signals and cautious macro sentiment. Standard Chartered has issued a warning of potential "final capitulation," suggesting Bitcoin could fall to as low as $50,000 before a meaningful recovery later in the year [The Block]. This bearish outlook is reinforced by on-chain data indicating that the Long-Term Holder Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (LTH-RPRL) has fallen below 1 for the first time in this cycle. This metric suggests that even long-term convictions are being tested, with some holders selling at a loss, a phenomenon historically associated with the final

1.0 Executive Summary Market Sentiment: Risk appetite appears mixed to cautious as markets digest a "noisy" US jobs report that combined a strong headline beat with massive negative revisions to prior data. While the US dollar found support from rising yields, the standout performer was the Japanese Yen, which strengthened on a "Buy Japan" theme despite the robust US payrolls. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty regarding US trade policy continue to underpin volatility. Key Themes: US Labor Market Ambiguity: Jan NFP smashed estimates (+130k vs +70k), but 2025 revisions wiped out nearly 900k jobs, complicating the Fed's path [Saxo, GS]. JPY Resilience: Hedge funds have flipped bullish on the Yen, shrugging off the strong US data, driven by political stability under PM T

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil markets remain volatile but generally supported, with prices finding a floor around $69/bbl for Brent as the market balances geopolitical risk against mixed inventory data. The "risk-on" sentiment fueled by US-Iran talks has moderated slightly, shifting focus to physical fundamentals. A key development is the US Energy Secretary's visit to Venezuela to meet with officials and oil producers, signaling a deepening engagement that could further unlock Venezuelan supply for the global market. This diplomatic push aligns with recent sanctions easing, allowing companies like Chevron to plan significant output expansions. However, the immediate supply picture is complicated by a surprise 8.5 million barrel build in US crude inventories reported by the EIA, whi

Bitcoin (BTC) Institutional Giants Double Down Amidst Volatility and Regulatory Actions Bitcoin is currently navigating a period of heightened volatility, trading around the $68,000 mark after briefly dipping below $67,000 in intraday sessions. The asset has seen a narrowed decrease of approximately 1.36% over the last 24 hours. Despite this short-term price turbulence, the macro narrative remains dominated by aggressive institutional maneuvering. MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, continues to innovate its capital strategy to acquire more BTC. CEO Phong Le announced plans to issue "Stretch" perpetual preferred shares, a new financial instrument designed to offer investors exposure to digital capital while mitigating volatility risk. This move aims to fund further Bi

Post Japan election, CTA is now selling some of their JPY length build up from start of Feb, and with Asia open 11 Feb starting the sell off again to about 153 levels, we should see more CTA selling. Major banks have mixed views on USDJPY longer term (6-12mths), with GS and Nomura bearish and targeting 150-152 levels, JPM bullish and targetting 157-160 levels. Meanwhile CTA still close to max long on AUD, EUR and GBP.

1.0 USD 6.1.1 Synthesis The US Dollar is navigating mixed signals as traders digest resilient labor data against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and shifting Fed expectations. J.P. Morgan and Nomura are analyzing the implications of the upcoming NFP report, with JPM forecasting a softer 30k jobs gain (vs 68k consensus) but maintaining a steady 4.4% unemployment rate. This data, combined with a 0.35% MoM core CPI forecast, keeps the Fed on a path of caution rather than aggressive easing. MUFG notes that the dollar index (DXY) has lost some momentum, falling below 97.00 after hitting recent highs, as weaker-than-expected retail sales (flat in Dec) fueled bets for a June rate cut. Geopolitically, the dollar remains supported by safe-haven flows amidst ongoing US-Iran tensions and supply c

5.1 Crude/Brent Synthesis Crude oil prices have strengthened, with Brent trading around $69/bbl, supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions, supply-side concerns, and a "risk-on" sentiment driven by strong US economic data. The geopolitical landscape remains fraught, with Russia accusing the US of coercing nations like India to shun Russian oil, while Israel's Prime Minister is set to meet President Trump to discuss Iran. Supply tightness is a recurring theme, underscored by Shell's warning of a significant long-term production shortfall and OPEC's January output decline. Demand signals are mixed but leaning positive, with US consumer sentiment beating expectations and Chinese equity markets rallying on stimulus hopes. J.P. Morgan (JPM) maintains a watchful eye on global growth,