To The Moon

Executive Summary Filed mid-May 2026 · As at March 31, 2026 · Five Investors · One Signal Map An AI-generated image thanks to Gemini The Problem 13F filings arrive with a 45-day lag. By the time retail investors read the news, the smart money has already moved. The signal is real — but it needs context to be actionable. What We Observed Five investors with radically different styles all filed Q1 2026 13Fs in mid-May. The aggregate picture reveals diverging bets — particularly on Big Tech, energy commodities, and the coming economic cycle. Key Finding Buffett is simplifying aggressively (GOOGL in, AMZN/UNH out). Ackman is rotating into MSFT just as Li Lu holds GOOGL steady. Pabrai is doubling down on cyclical hard assets. Nobody is buying the same thing — which is the most interesting signa

THE WORLD'S BIGGEST INVESTORS ARE ALL SELLING AT THE SAME TIME. The newly filed Q1 2026 portfolios reveal a massive de-risking wave across Wall Street's smartest money. Warren Buffett's successor Greg Abel trimmed the Berkshire portfolio from 40 positions down to 26, fully exiting Amazon, UnitedHealth, and Domino's while cutting Chevron and Bank of America. Bill Ackman sold 94.94% of his Google Class C shares and 95.23% of his Class A shares, effectively exiting the position entirely. Chris Hohn's TCI Fund sold almost its entire $8 billion Microsoft stake, cutting from 10% of the portfolio down to 1%, citing AI disruption risk to Microsoft's core software business. Daniel Loeb fully exited Microsoft and PG&E, reduced Nvidia by 93.56%, Union Pacific by 94.48%, and exited 20 pos

My Investing Muse (18May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies META is preparing to cut about 10% of staff on May 20, nearly 8,000 people, per YF. - X user Unusual Whales 4,000 Cisco employees lost their jobs this morning. Last night the company raised AI order guidance. From $5B to $9B. Stock jumped 17% after hours. 12 hours between the earnings and the layoff. The money is moving. The people are not. - X user George Pu Tech layoffs in 2026 so far: Jan - 27,223 Feb - 24,631 Mar - 49,452 Apr - 18,385 May - 9,249 128,940 people in five months. March 2026 was the worst month for tech layoffs in over a year. My thoughts Recent talks between the United States and China appeared to improve short-term stability, but they did not produce a clear resolution to the key issues between both sides.

News and my thoughts from the past week (18May2026) As I predicted on All In, the inflation three-handle is back… the war isn’t ending… the chances of a rate cut are flipping to a rate increase…. our debt is surging FASTER… and Trump’s ratings are at an all-time low. valuations disconnecting from fundamentals to the point of making folks on CNBC telling retail to pump the breaks. The MAGA civil war rages on. A Golden age for the gilded, but the working class remains stalled and forgotten. - X use Jason FT Exclusive: Amazon employees are using an internal AI tool to automate non-essential tasks in a bid to show managers they are using the technology more frequently. The CEOs of SLB, Baker Hughes, and Halliburton, the 3 companies that run the global oil industry's infrastructure, just said t

Market Outlook of S&P500 (18May2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.29, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are s

Earnings Calendar (18May2026) I am interested in the earnings of ZIM, Nvidia, Baidu, and NIO next week. ZIM Overview ZIM has delivered a strong share price performance over the past year, but the broader picture is mixed. While valuation and income metrics appear attractive, technical indicators suggest caution, and analyst sentiment remains “neutral”. · Share price performance: Up 39.5% from a year ago. · Technical analysis: Signals a strong sell. · Analyst sentiment: Neutral. · Target price: $22.78, implying a potential downside of 10.93%. · P/E ratio: 6.5, which may suggest an attractive valuation. · EPS: $3.98. · Dividend yield: 13.8%, which stands out as especially attractive. Financial Performance Trend · Tota

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 18May2026) Key Economic Releases to Watch The coming week features several closely watched releases that could shape market sentiment, particularly around demand expectations, monetary policy, manufacturing activity, and labour market conditions. · Crude Oil Inventories: This release will be a key reference point for assessing supply conditions and expected production trends relative to demand. · FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes are likely to influence market expectations for upcoming interest rate decisions and may also provide context for the transition in Federal Reserve leadership. · Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May): The previous reading was 26.7. This indicator will help gauge the direction and pace

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 18May2026) Key Economic Releases to Watch The coming week features several closely watched releases that could shape market sentiment, particularly around demand expectations, monetary policy, manufacturing activity, and labour market conditions. · Crude Oil Inventories: This release will be a key reference point for assessing supply conditions and expected production trends relative to demand. · FOMC Meeting Minutes: The minutes are likely to influence market expectations for upcoming interest rate decisions and may also provide context for the transition in Federal Reserve leadership. · Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May): The previous reading was 26.7. This indicator will help gauge the direction and pace of manufacturing activity. · I

Executive Summary Problem: The world’s two largest economies have been locked in a grinding trade war since April 2025 — tariffs topping 140%, rare earth export controls weaponised, and now a three-month Iran war that has closed the Strait of Hormuz and driven up global energy costs. Neither side can absorb indefinite pain. Observation: Trump arrived in Beijing on May 13 — his first visit in nine years — with a dozen CEOs in tow, including Musk, Cook, Jensen Huang (last-minute addition, boarded Air Force One in Anchorage at a refuelling stop), Fink, and Boeing’s CEO. Xi received him with full military ceremony and then proceeded to spend the first two-hour-fifteen-minute session making Taiwan the centrepiece of China’s messaging — which the White House readout then omitted entirely. That g

The AI Capex Supercycle: $725 Billion, Bottlenecks Everywhere, and ROIC Hanging in the Balance I am long the AI buildout. I am also willing to name the number that nobody is clearly stating. Goldman Sachs calculates that maintaining current returns on capital would require these companies to realise an annual profit run-rate of over $1 trillion by 2027. Consensus projects $450 billion. That is a 2x gap — and it will not resolve uniformly across all four hyperscalers. Through my Asian lens is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. The numbers first: $725B combined 2026 capex — Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta. Up 77% from 2025’s record. 94% of operating cash flow consumed by AI infrastructure before debt financin