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JayShia

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- JayShiaJayShia
  ·2023-04-05
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- JayShiaJayShia
  ·2022-01-20
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  An oil price surge is brewing as Wall Street bigwigs enter the market
  在华尔街的助推之下，一旦油价超过90美元，涨势将一发不可收拾。
  An oil price surge is brewing as Wall Street bigwigs enter the market
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20:12","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"An oil price surge is brewing as Wall Street bigwigs enter the market","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185562294","media":"金十数据","summary":"在华尔街的助推之下，一旦油价超过90美元，涨势将一发不可收拾。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Changes in supply and demand fundamentals such as OPEC + production plan and the release of strategic crude oil reserves in the United States are of great significance to oil prices. However, once Wall Street enters the market, the fluctuation range of oil prices will exceed the normal level that can be controlled by fundamentals.</p><p><b>Over the past 18 months, crude oil bulls have accumulated a lot of call options.</b>They've bought thousands of options contracts with exercise prices at $100/barrel, $105/barrel, $110/barrel, $125/barrel or even $150/barrel in an attempt to bet on future price spikes with cheap options fees.</p><p>At the height of the COVID pandemic, these options were almost given away for nothing. Oil prices soaring into the triple digits seemed like a fantasy amid strict lockdown measures and weak energy demand at the time.</p><p>Just a year ago, one could buy a call option expiring in December 2022 with an exercise price of $100/barrel for 24 cents. Fast forward to today and the price of this option has soared to $4.2. At the time, the call option, which cost only 9 cents and expired in December 2022 and exercised at $125/barrel, is now worth nearly 15 times its previous value: $1.35.</p><p>Despite the surge in options prices, few people are selling calls right now.<b>Many hedge funds and other large investors are patiently awaiting a bigger haul: waiting for oil prices to rise further</b>So that they can exercise their call options and have the right to buy crude oil below the market price.</p><p>For Brent crude, which is on Wall Street's radar, its price hit a seven-year high of $89.05/barrel on Wednesday after a key pipeline from Iraq to Turkey was briefly disrupted after an explosion and fire.</p><p>The increase in oil prices is mainly caused by supply and demand. Omicron's impact on consumption is not as great as feared. At the same time, OPEC + has encountered many difficulties in increasing production, with many countries, including oil giants such as Russia, failing to add additional oil supplies in December last year. Therefore, throughout the middle of January, oil inventories have been declining continuously, exceeding the market expectation of oversupply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f268dea95366d43561d4d52536a39ec\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Distribution of calls and puts: There are a large number of calls with a strike price of $90 and above</p><p>With oil prices below $90/barrel, the oil market is still dominated by put options, which tend to encourage some participants to sell. But<b>Once oil hits $90 and beyond, calls will begin to dominate the market</b>, as many traders bought the accumulated calls at low prices are about to expire in June and December.</p><p>As the value of these call options contracts continues to rise, options sellers find themselves on the wrong side of the trade. In a rising market, they are effectively bears. Therefore, they need to buy futures to hedge their risk.</p><p>In this case, they can create a dilemma: oil prices rise and options sellers buy more futures, which in turn triggers further price increases, which in turn triggers more buying. In the jargon of the options market, this situation is called<b>Gamma hedging</b>。 Oil markets have faced similar situations before, both upside and downside.</p><p>Thibaut Remoundos, founder of Commodities Trading Corporation, which advises oil consumers and producers on options strategies, said:</p><p>\"Things could get tricky if oil moves above $90/barrel. As we move above $95, the options market will be a strong tailwind for the bulls.\" Of course, without strong fundamentals, Wall Street's power alone cannot drive the market. At present, the price of the oil spot market is close to $90, but the rally may pause a little in February and March: this time of year, some refiners perform annual maintenance, crude demand will drop, and prices may consolidate.</p><p>But after that, oil prices will continue to rise. The spot oil market should strengthen by April, while inventories will remain low. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that U.S. oil inventories had fallen to a seven-year low. In its monthly report, the IEA said:</p><p>\"If demand continues to grow strongly, or supply disappoints, low levels of inventories and shrinking spare capacity will mean oil markets could be turbulent again in 2022.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69feecf179853175ac37ca48f235e534\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In this case, the oil options market may be the main profitable market. As shown in the figure above,<b>The number of open interests in Brent crude oil calls expiring in June 2022 with a strike price of $100/barrel has soared nearly 140% over the past month.</b>And this is only trading within the exchange, and the trading volume in the over-the-counter market may be higher. Perhaps in a few months, options traders will see the dawn of victory.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>An oil price surge is brewing as Wall Street bigwigs enter the market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAn oil price surge is brewing as Wall Street bigwigs enter the market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">金十数据</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-20 20:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Changes in supply and demand fundamentals such as OPEC + production plan and the release of strategic crude oil reserves in the United States are of great significance to oil prices. However, once Wall Street enters the market, the fluctuation range of oil prices will exceed the normal level that can be controlled by fundamentals.</p><p><b>Over the past 18 months, crude oil bulls have accumulated a lot of call options.</b>They've bought thousands of options contracts with exercise prices at $100/barrel, $105/barrel, $110/barrel, $125/barrel or even $150/barrel in an attempt to bet on future price spikes with cheap options fees.</p><p>At the height of the COVID pandemic, these options were almost given away for nothing. Oil prices soaring into the triple digits seemed like a fantasy amid strict lockdown measures and weak energy demand at the time.</p><p>Just a year ago, one could buy a call option expiring in December 2022 with an exercise price of $100/barrel for 24 cents. Fast forward to today and the price of this option has soared to $4.2. At the time, the call option, which cost only 9 cents and expired in December 2022 and exercised at $125/barrel, is now worth nearly 15 times its previous value: $1.35.</p><p>Despite the surge in options prices, few people are selling calls right now.<b>Many hedge funds and other large investors are patiently awaiting a bigger haul: waiting for oil prices to rise further</b>So that they can exercise their call options and have the right to buy crude oil below the market price.</p><p>For Brent crude, which is on Wall Street's radar, its price hit a seven-year high of $89.05/barrel on Wednesday after a key pipeline from Iraq to Turkey was briefly disrupted after an explosion and fire.</p><p>The increase in oil prices is mainly caused by supply and demand. Omicron's impact on consumption is not as great as feared. At the same time, OPEC + has encountered many difficulties in increasing production, with many countries, including oil giants such as Russia, failing to add additional oil supplies in December last year. Therefore, throughout the middle of January, oil inventories have been declining continuously, exceeding the market expectation of oversupply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f268dea95366d43561d4d52536a39ec\" tg-width=\"977\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Distribution of calls and puts: There are a large number of calls with a strike price of $90 and above</p><p>With oil prices below $90/barrel, the oil market is still dominated by put options, which tend to encourage some participants to sell. But<b>Once oil hits $90 and beyond, calls will begin to dominate the market</b>, as many traders bought the accumulated calls at low prices are about to expire in June and December.</p><p>As the value of these call options contracts continues to rise, options sellers find themselves on the wrong side of the trade. In a rising market, they are effectively bears. Therefore, they need to buy futures to hedge their risk.</p><p>In this case, they can create a dilemma: oil prices rise and options sellers buy more futures, which in turn triggers further price increases, which in turn triggers more buying. In the jargon of the options market, this situation is called<b>Gamma hedging</b>。 Oil markets have faced similar situations before, both upside and downside.</p><p>Thibaut Remoundos, founder of Commodities Trading Corporation, which advises oil consumers and producers on options strategies, said:</p><p>\"Things could get tricky if oil moves above $90/barrel. As we move above $95, the options market will be a strong tailwind for the bulls.\" Of course, without strong fundamentals, Wall Street's power alone cannot drive the market. At present, the price of the oil spot market is close to $90, but the rally may pause a little in February and March: this time of year, some refiners perform annual maintenance, crude demand will drop, and prices may consolidate.</p><p>But after that, oil prices will continue to rise. The spot oil market should strengthen by April, while inventories will remain low. On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that U.S. oil inventories had fallen to a seven-year low. In its monthly report, the IEA said:</p><p>\"If demand continues to grow strongly, or supply disappoints, low levels of inventories and shrinking spare capacity will mean oil markets could be turbulent again in 2022.\"<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69feecf179853175ac37ca48f235e534\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>In this case, the oil options market may be the main profitable market. As shown in the figure above,<b>The number of open interests in Brent crude oil calls expiring in June 2022 with a strike price of $100/barrel has soared nearly 140% over the past month.</b>And this is only trading within the exchange, and the trading volume in the over-the-counter market may be higher. Perhaps in a few months, options traders will see the dawn of victory.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/88950\">金十数据</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d60a2dcd6ade78c11696b80e541ad68","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/88950","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185562294","content_text":"OPEC+的生产计划和美国战略原油储备释放量这样的供需基本面变动对油价的作用意义重大，可一旦华尔街入场，油价的波动范围将超出基本面所能控制的正常水平。在过去18个月里，原油多头积累了大量看涨期权。他们已经购买了数千份行权价在100美元/桶、105美元/桶、110美元/桶、125美元/桶甚至150美元/桶的期权合约，试图通过廉价的期权费来押注未来价格飙涨。在新冠疫情最严重的时候，这些期权几乎是不要钱白送。在当时严格的封锁措施和疲软的能源需求之下，油价飙升至三位数水平似乎是天方夜谭。就在一年前，人们可以以24美分的价格买到2022年12月到期，行权价为100美元/桶的看涨期权。快进到今天，这种期权的价格已飙升至4.2美元。而当时只需9美分的，2022年12月到期、行权价在125美元/桶的看涨期权，如今它的价值是之前的近15倍：1.35美元。尽管期权价格飙升，但目前很少有人卖出看涨期权。许多对冲基金和其他大型投资者正在耐心等待一个更大的收获：等待油价进一步上涨，这样他们就可以行使看涨期权，并享有以低于市场价格购买原油的权利。对于华尔街关注的布伦特原油而言，其价格在周三触及89.05美元/桶的7年高点，此前从伊拉克通往土耳其的一条关键管道在发生爆炸和火灾后短暂中断。油价上涨主要是由供求关系造成的。奥密克戎对消费的影响没有人们担心的那么大。与此同时，OPEC+在增产上遇到不少困难，包括俄罗斯等石油巨头在内的许多国家未能在去年12月增加额外的石油供应。因此整个1月中旬，石油库存一直在持续下降，超出了市场供过于求的预期。看涨期权和看跌期权的分布情况：有大量行权价在90美元及上方的看涨期权在油价低于90/桶美元的情况下，石油市场仍受看跌期权所主导，这种期权往往会鼓励一些参与者卖出。但一旦油价触及90美元甚至更高价，看涨期权将开始主导市场，因为许多交易员在低价时买入积累的看涨期权即将在6月和12月到期。随着这些看涨期权合约的价值不断上涨，期权卖家发现自己在交易中站错边。在一个不断上涨的市场中，它们实际上是空头。因此，他们需要买入期货以对冲风险。在这种情况下，他们可能会造成一种进退两难的局面：油价上涨，期权卖家买入更多期货，进而引发价格进一步上涨，进而引发更多的买入。用期权市场的行话来说，这种情况叫做伽马对冲。石油市场以前也面临过类似的情况，无论是上行还是下行。为石油消费者和生产商提供期权策略方面的建议的大宗商品贸易公司（Commodities Trading Corporation）创始人蒂博·雷芒多斯（Thibaut Remoundos）表示：“如果油价突破90美元/桶，情况可能会变得棘手。随着我们升至95美元以上，期权市场将成为多头的强劲顺风。”当然，如果没有强大的基本面，单靠华尔街的力量是无法推动市场走势的。目前，石油现货市场的价格接近90美元，但涨势在2月和3月可能会出现些许的停顿：每年的这个时候，一些炼油商都会进行年度维护，原油需求也会下降，价格可能盘整。但在此之后，油价会继续上扬。到4月份，现货石油市场应会走强，而库存仍将保持在较低水平。本周三，国际能源署（IEA）表示，美国的石油库存已经降至7年来的最低点。IEA在其月度报告中表示：“如果需求继续强劲增长，或供应令人失望，低水平的库存和不断缩小的闲置产能将意味着石油市场可能在2022年再次出现动荡。”在这种情况下，石油期权市场可能为主要的盈利市场。如上图所示，过去一个月，2022年6月到期、行权价为100美元/桶的布伦特原油看涨期权未平仓合约数量飙升了近140%。而这只是在交易所内的交易，在场外交易市场的交易量或将会更高。或许数月之后，期权交易员能迎来胜利的曙光。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}