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han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-14
q
U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%
7月14日,美股继续走低,三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前,道达尔、英国石油跌超6%,马拉松石油跌超4%。
U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%
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han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-14
ok
U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%
7月14日,美股继续走低,三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前,道达尔、英国石油跌超6%,马拉松石油跌超4%。
U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%
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han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-11
q
Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%
7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(
Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%
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han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-11
OK
Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%
7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(
Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%
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han妈
han妈
·
2022-07-10
a
Who is the next "domino" after Abe's fall?
安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?
Who is the next "domino" after Abe's fall?
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han妈
han妈
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2022-07-10
ok
Who is the next "domino" after Abe's fall?
安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?
Who is the next "domino" after Abe's fall?
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han妈
han妈
·
2022-06-27
y
The crisis is still fermenting! Currency Circle Hedge Fund Giants Come to the Verge of Default
随着偿还6.7亿美元的最后期限临近,处于危机中心的币圈对冲基金正面临违约风险。
The crisis is still fermenting! Currency Circle Hedge Fund Giants Come to the Verge of Default
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han妈
han妈
·
2022-06-22
k
Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike pace.
鲍威尔表示,美国经济非常强劲,能够应对更紧缩的政策;美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%;继续加息是合适的,决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示,最新的通胀指标表明,美联储需要加快加息步伐。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高,需要降低。
Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike pace.
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han妈
han妈
·
2022-06-22
o
Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike pace.
鲍威尔表示,美国经济非常强劲,能够应对更紧缩的政策;美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%;继续加息是合适的,决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示,最新的通胀指标表明,美联储需要加快加息步伐。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高,需要降低。
Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike pace.
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han妈
han妈
·
2022-06-18
ok
Reminder: US stock markets will be closed on June 20th due to Juneteenth, a US federal holiday.
这一节日是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。
Reminder: US stock markets will be closed on June 20th due to Juneteenth, a US federal holiday.
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The U.S. oil and gas sector was among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>It fell by more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd380b29b381ba998550798eb1768228\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-14 22:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 14th, U.S. stocks continued to fall, with all three major stock indexes falling by more than 2%. The U.S. oil and gas sector was among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>It fell by more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd380b29b381ba998550798eb1768228\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{"BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BP":"英国石油",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4138":"石油与天然气的炼制和营销","MPC":"马拉松原油",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142262047","content_text":"7月14日,美股继续走低,三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前,道达尔、英国石油跌超6%,马拉松石油跌超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"BP":0.9,"TTA.UK":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MPC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9076110971,"gmtCreate":1657808489793,"gmtModify":1676536064988,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9076110971","repostId":"1142262047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142262047","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657807960,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142262047?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-14 22:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142262047","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月14日,美股继续走低,三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前,道达尔、英国石油跌超6%,马拉松石油跌超4%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 14th, U.S. stocks continued to fall, with all three major stock indexes falling by more than 2%. The U.S. oil and gas sector was among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>It fell by more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd380b29b381ba998550798eb1768228\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. stocks continue to fall, with all three major indexes falling more than 2%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-14 22:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 14th, U.S. stocks continued to fall, with all three major stock indexes falling by more than 2%. The U.S. oil and gas sector was among the top losers,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>fell by more than 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPC\">Marathon Oil</a>It fell by more than 4%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd380b29b381ba998550798eb1768228\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"270\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{"BK4201":"综合性石油与天然气企业","BP":"英国石油",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4138":"石油与天然气的炼制和营销","MPC":"马拉松原油",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142262047","content_text":"7月14日,美股继续走低,三大股指均跌超2%。美股油气板块跌幅居前,道达尔、英国石油跌超6%,马拉松石油跌超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"BP":0.9,"TTA.UK":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"MPC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071506308,"gmtCreate":1657549288904,"gmtModify":1676536023652,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"q","listText":"q","text":"q","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071506308","repostId":"1123417061","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123417061","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657549065,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123417061?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 22:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123417061","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 11, Macau gambling stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Crown Entertainment</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">SANDS GROUP</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">Wynn Resorts</a>It fell by more than 7%. Macau announced that it would suspend the operation of industrial and commercial activities from 0: 00 on the 11th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f80dbd28d59fe0fedac02f54be6086\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The COVID-19 epidemic situation in Macau continues. The Chief Executive of Macau issued an instruction last Saturday (9th). From today (11th) to 18th, the operation of all industrial and commercial companies and venues will be suspended. All personnel should stay in their residences unless they purchase necessary daily necessities for performing necessary work and living needs, or go out for other emergency reasons. Moreover, adults should wear KN95 or above standard masks when going out, and the airport is only limited to freight. Macau's Secretary for Administration and Justice, Mr Cheung Wing Chun, said the measures were aimed at minimizing social mobility and denied it was a lockdown<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Grounding has no great impact on citizens' daily life; However, it is impossible to predict whether the measures will be extended in a week. If the epidemic situation develops more seriously, it is not ruled out that the measures will be \"added and tightened again\".</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMacau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-11 22:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 11, Macau gambling stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Crown Entertainment</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">SANDS GROUP</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">Wynn Resorts</a>It fell by more than 7%. Macau announced that it would suspend the operation of industrial and commercial activities from 0: 00 on the 11th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f80dbd28d59fe0fedac02f54be6086\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The COVID-19 epidemic situation in Macau continues. The Chief Executive of Macau issued an instruction last Saturday (9th). From today (11th) to 18th, the operation of all industrial and commercial companies and venues will be suspended. All personnel should stay in their residences unless they purchase necessary daily necessities for performing necessary work and living needs, or go out for other emergency reasons. Moreover, adults should wear KN95 or above standard masks when going out, and the airport is only limited to freight. Macau's Secretary for Administration and Justice, Mr Cheung Wing Chun, said the measures were aimed at minimizing social mobility and denied it was a lockdown<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Grounding has no great impact on citizens' daily life; However, it is impossible to predict whether the measures will be extended in a week. If the epidemic situation develops more seriously, it is not ruled out that the measures will be \"added and tightened again\".</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76824cd4c5b97eaacdaab63d96995a28","relate_stocks":{"MLCO":"新濠博亚娱乐"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123417061","content_text":"7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(11日)起至18日期间,暂停所有工商业活动公司及场所运作,所有人员要留在住所,除非因执行必要的工作、维生需求而购买必要生活物资、或因其他紧急原因外出,而且成年人外出要佩戴KN95或以上标准口罩,机场亦只限货运。澳门行政法务司司长张永春表示,措施目的是为将社会流动量降至最低,否认是封城,亦非全民禁足,对市民日常生活无大影响;但无法预计一周后措施是否延长,若疫情发展更严重,不排除措施会“再加码、再收紧”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MLCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071506945,"gmtCreate":1657549279088,"gmtModify":1676536023651,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071506945","repostId":"1123417061","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123417061","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1657549065,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123417061?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-11 22:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123417061","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On July 11, Macau gambling stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Crown Entertainment</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">SANDS GROUP</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">Wynn Resorts</a>It fell by more than 7%. Macau announced that it would suspend the operation of industrial and commercial activities from 0: 00 on the 11th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f80dbd28d59fe0fedac02f54be6086\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The COVID-19 epidemic situation in Macau continues. The Chief Executive of Macau issued an instruction last Saturday (9th). From today (11th) to 18th, the operation of all industrial and commercial companies and venues will be suspended. All personnel should stay in their residences unless they purchase necessary daily necessities for performing necessary work and living needs, or go out for other emergency reasons. Moreover, adults should wear KN95 or above standard masks when going out, and the airport is only limited to freight. Macau's Secretary for Administration and Justice, Mr Cheung Wing Chun, said the measures were aimed at minimizing social mobility and denied it was a lockdown<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Grounding has no great impact on citizens' daily life; However, it is impossible to predict whether the measures will be extended in a week. If the epidemic situation develops more seriously, it is not ruled out that the measures will be \"added and tightened again\".</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Macau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMacau Gambling Stocks Fall, Melco Crown Entertainment Drops Over 9%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-07-11 22:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On July 11, Macau gambling stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPEL\">Melco Crown Entertainment</a>It fell by more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LVS\">SANDS GROUP</a>fell by more than 8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">Wynn Resorts</a>It fell by more than 7%. Macau announced that it would suspend the operation of industrial and commercial activities from 0: 00 on the 11th.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53f80dbd28d59fe0fedac02f54be6086\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The COVID-19 epidemic situation in Macau continues. The Chief Executive of Macau issued an instruction last Saturday (9th). From today (11th) to 18th, the operation of all industrial and commercial companies and venues will be suspended. All personnel should stay in their residences unless they purchase necessary daily necessities for performing necessary work and living needs, or go out for other emergency reasons. Moreover, adults should wear KN95 or above standard masks when going out, and the airport is only limited to freight. Macau's Secretary for Administration and Justice, Mr Cheung Wing Chun, said the measures were aimed at minimizing social mobility and denied it was a lockdown<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">the whole people</a>Grounding has no great impact on citizens' daily life; However, it is impossible to predict whether the measures will be extended in a week. If the epidemic situation develops more seriously, it is not ruled out that the measures will be \"added and tightened again\".</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76824cd4c5b97eaacdaab63d96995a28","relate_stocks":{"MLCO":"新濠博亚娱乐"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123417061","content_text":"7月11日,澳门濠赌股下挫,新濠博亚娱乐跌超9%,金沙集团跌超8%,永利度假村跌超7%。澳门宣布从11日0时起暂停工商业活动场所运作。澳门新冠肺炎疫情持续,澳门行政长官于上周六(9日)颁布批示,今日(11日)起至18日期间,暂停所有工商业活动公司及场所运作,所有人员要留在住所,除非因执行必要的工作、维生需求而购买必要生活物资、或因其他紧急原因外出,而且成年人外出要佩戴KN95或以上标准口罩,机场亦只限货运。澳门行政法务司司长张永春表示,措施目的是为将社会流动量降至最低,否认是封城,亦非全民禁足,对市民日常生活无大影响;但无法预计一周后措施是否延长,若疫情发展更严重,不排除措施会“再加码、再收紧”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MLCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071309883,"gmtCreate":1657466809643,"gmtModify":1676536010807,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"a","listText":"a","text":"a","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071309883","repostId":"1158704109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158704109","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657455012,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158704109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-10 20:10","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Who is the next \"domino\" after Abe's fall?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158704109","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>From the unexpected death of OPEC Secretary General Barkindo to the unexpected attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that can connect these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem into a political and social one.</b>(Of course, there were religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices were a major trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been slow to effectively increase production to alleviate the increasingly tight supply and demand situation (Figure 1). Despite rising inflation, the Bank of Japan continues to adhere to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without limit. The current governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, is a symbol of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenges of inflation after Abe's downfall? What impact will this have on the market?</b></p><p>We believe Japan will not abandon Abenomics and the YCC policy. However, given that overseas inflation is more unbearable than a recession, at least three risks need to be noted in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to make a one-time, unexpected adjustment to the fluctuation range of its YCC policy, which will undoubtedly exacerbate the pressure on the global bond market in stages.</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point in US Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening narrative of inflation and monetary policy normalization will lead to greater upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>The Bank of Japan's attitude towards the YCC policy will be one of change rather than abandonment. We mainly answer three questions: Why do we need to change? Why not abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned for low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy was to help Japan get out of its long-standing deflationary predicament; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: to boost exports through the depreciation of the yen and to introduce imported inflation; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>Currently, the inappropriateness of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the pandemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the shadow of deflation over the past decade.</b>We may face an era of high inflation and high volatility now and in the next decade, and Japan will not be spared either, which contradicts the original setting of the YCC policy. Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify economic volatility.</b>This is clearly not suitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lacking a flexible regulatory mechanism, it is vulnerable to attacks by speculative funds.</b>。 The YCC range is adjusted very infrequently; since its launch in 2016, the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021.</p><p>The main reason for the pro-cyclical nature of the YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which serves as a regulatory intermediary target, is pro-cyclical. During economic downturns and low inflation, the Bank of Japan needs to be cautious in its bond purchases to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit. During the recession caused by the pandemic in 2020, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet expanded much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5). With the economy overheating and inflation rising, the Bank of Japan has had to increase its bond purchases to prevent bond yields from breaking through the upper limit, which could fuel inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What most attracts speculative funds is that YCC policies lack flexibility and adjustments are often delayed. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable center (currently 0% as a policy objective) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is relatively low).<b>This is quite similar to the RMB exchange rate pricing before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of the RMB exchange rate abandoned the anchoring center, but still retained the limitation of the fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar is still subject to an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not abandon YCC, just as the Japanese government will not abandon Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from the Reserve Bank of Australia's abandonment of YCC and the out-of-control bond yields.</b>(Figure 7) The appreciation of Japanese bond yields and the yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will further weaken the Japanese economy. Second, from the perspective of medium- and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japan's economy</b>The YCC policy is an important part of this. In Japan, where the population is aging and young people are lying down, the borrowing demand of households and businesses remains weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through a low exchange rate and proactive fiscal spending play a major role in boosting aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9). An important pillar behind this is the looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared to other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, Japan has chosen to be deeply tied to the United States, at least financially, and has long since abandoned its ambition to internationalize the yen. This means that, unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Ensuring low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy are the top priorities in Japan's monetary policy system. Even though the Bank of Japan's holdings of Japanese bonds account for more than 50% of the total market, it is willing to squeeze out foreign investors.</b>Conversely, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to increase the internationalization of the RMB, it is necessary to ensure that bond yields are at a reasonable level and to guarantee the liquidity and openness of the bond market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the upper limit of the YCC interest rate to above 0.5% (currently 0.25%), and it is likely to do so in one step, exceeding market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan is primarily anchored to 10-year Japanese government bonds, the Japanese government bond yield curve convexes downwards at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12). We estimate the reasonable position of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield by using the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the 10-year and 7-year yield spread of 0.27% and 0.19% at recent highs), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the upper limit of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering market sentiment and the Bank of Japan's habit of adjusting ranges (the range is usually an integer multiple of 5 basis points),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, which is essentially equivalent to at least 25 basis points of rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, in an era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate cap mechanism in stages.</b>The policy signals for adjusting the ceiling interest rate are clearer than those for the central interest rate. The Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently, while controlling the financing costs of Japanese debt.</p><p>We believe the main reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, significant adjustment that exceeds market expectations is that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not suitable to fully guide market expectations and proceed gradually. On the contrary, this will lead to more speculative funds betting and arbitrage, causing greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese debt collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operations. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market.</b>Overseas institutions account for only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds mainly short Japanese bonds through futures (which offer better liquidity). Given insufficient liquidity in the spot market (futures delivery is inconvenient),<b>Short selling futures is mainly short-term and temporary.</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure on the Bank of Japan mainly comes from political and public opinion levels.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's proactive widening of the YCC range will put renewed pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"dovish\" monetary policy in developed economies, the Bank of Japan's shift will have landmark symbolic significance. In addition, as the world's largest economy in overseas investment, the interest rate and exchange rate changes resulting from the YCC change are likely to cause Japan to adjust (and possibly reduce) its exposure to overseas fixed-income investments, further exacerbating market volatility.</p><p>Japanese Yen: Depreciation pressure persisted before the Bank of Japan's action, especially around the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan takes action, the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike will objectively widen the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, leading to a weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts, funds will continue to bet on the Bank of Japan's adjustment policy before its interest rate meeting. While institutions are shorting Japanese bond futures, shorting the yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, making money for Japanese bond futures; the Bank of Japan holds rates steady, making money for yen shorts).</p><p>We believe that 140 is a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices rose by more than 40% year-on-year in May, reaching a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% to the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the Kishida cabinet's disapproval rating rose to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yen, social and political pressures will force the Bank of Japan to reassess its current policies, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in a timely manner.</p><p>Regarding the spillover effects of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japanese monetary policy in the second half of the year, we believe we should focus on two main points:<b>First, the downward inflection point in US Treasury yields may come later than before; second, the upward pressure on domestic bond yields may be greater in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The downward turning point in US Treasury yields will occur later, possibly in the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events indicate<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policies should not be underestimated.</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of US Treasury bonds in 2022 may need to be referenced in the 1970s and 1980s.</b>The pattern of downward turning points in US Treasury yields occurring before recessions since the beginning of the 21st century is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the beginning of the 21st century, a key reason why the 10-year US Treasury yield has often appeared before a recession is...<b>The Federal Reserve often initiates forward-looking interest rate cuts when the economy faces significant downward pressure.</b>(Figure 16), but the current monetary policy operation under high inflation may be more like that of the 1970s and 1980s, where policy shifts often occur after the start of a recession, which also leads to the peak (or second surge) of bond yields occurring during the recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, there are global aftershocks from Japan's monetary policy changes, China's rapid economic recovery in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors could lead to a downward inflection point in US Treasury yields not occurring until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, setting aside the grand narratives of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from a market logic perspective, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to believe that the 10-year bond yield will temporarily climb above 2.90% and reach 3% in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of the macroeconomic environment and market logic, overseas markets are experiencing a fluctuation between inflation and recession. However, domestically, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service sector, and the accelerated rise in pork prices may lead to a temporary increase in CPI, which may even exceed market expectations. Coupled with the fanning of overseas inflation narratives, this is clearly not good news for the bond market. And<b>The experience of pork prices soaring in 2019 while bond yields declined is not relevant for 2022.</b>—The macroeconomic backdrop at that time was low global inflation and central banks turning to easing with weak fundamentals, which is quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From an external perspective, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen was not yet over.</b>Even with the halo of the US tariff reductions and exemptions on China, the RMB still faces depreciation pressure. Coupled with the strength of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, monetary policy, in addition to the logic of returning to normal, has added a layer of internal and external competition.<b>Balancing currency depreciation with stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + normalization of monetary policy + limitation of imported inflation\" is formed,<b>The deleveraging of the bond market will accelerate the bond market correction.</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point in long-term US Treasury yields has been postponed, the domestic bond market is facing a correction, and coupled with the risk of a \"gray rhino\" stance from the Bank of Japan, we are expected to be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market.</b>In particular, some sectors that saw rapid valuation recovery and hot trading in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk Warning:</p><p>External demand declined due to tightening overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession in the third quarter, forcing central banks in Europe and the United States to turn ahead ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and pressure on Japan's YCC policy eased. OPEC's better-than-expected production increase in the second half of the year, a consensus reached in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a significant improvement in crude oil supply led to a decline in oil prices, easing global inflationary pressures.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is the next \"domino\" after Abe's fall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is the next \"domino\" after Abe's fall?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-10 20:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>From the unexpected death of OPEC Secretary General Barkindo to the unexpected attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that can connect these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem into a political and social one.</b>(Of course, there were religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices were a major trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been slow to effectively increase production to alleviate the increasingly tight supply and demand situation (Figure 1). Despite rising inflation, the Bank of Japan continues to adhere to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without limit. The current governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, is a symbol of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenges of inflation after Abe's downfall? What impact will this have on the market?</b></p><p>We believe Japan will not abandon Abenomics and the YCC policy. However, given that overseas inflation is more unbearable than a recession, at least three risks need to be noted in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to make a one-time, unexpected adjustment to the fluctuation range of its YCC policy, which will undoubtedly exacerbate the pressure on the global bond market in stages.</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point in US Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening narrative of inflation and monetary policy normalization will lead to greater upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>The Bank of Japan's attitude towards the YCC policy will be one of change rather than abandonment. We mainly answer three questions: Why do we need to change? Why not abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned for low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy was to help Japan get out of its long-standing deflationary predicament; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: to boost exports through the depreciation of the yen and to introduce imported inflation; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>Currently, the inappropriateness of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the pandemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the shadow of deflation over the past decade.</b>We may face an era of high inflation and high volatility now and in the next decade, and Japan will not be spared either, which contradicts the original setting of the YCC policy. Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify economic volatility.</b>This is clearly not suitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lacking a flexible regulatory mechanism, it is vulnerable to attacks by speculative funds.</b>。 The YCC range is adjusted very infrequently; since its launch in 2016, the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021.</p><p>The main reason for the pro-cyclical nature of the YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which serves as a regulatory intermediary target, is pro-cyclical. During economic downturns and low inflation, the Bank of Japan needs to be cautious in its bond purchases to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit. During the recession caused by the pandemic in 2020, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet expanded much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5). With the economy overheating and inflation rising, the Bank of Japan has had to increase its bond purchases to prevent bond yields from breaking through the upper limit, which could fuel inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What most attracts speculative funds is that YCC policies lack flexibility and adjustments are often delayed. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable center (currently 0% as a policy objective) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is relatively low).<b>This is quite similar to the RMB exchange rate pricing before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of the RMB exchange rate abandoned the anchoring center, but still retained the limitation of the fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar is still subject to an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not abandon YCC, just as the Japanese government will not abandon Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from the Reserve Bank of Australia's abandonment of YCC and the out-of-control bond yields.</b>(Figure 7) The appreciation of Japanese bond yields and the yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will further weaken the Japanese economy. Second, from the perspective of medium- and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japan's economy</b>The YCC policy is an important part of this. In Japan, where the population is aging and young people are lying down, the borrowing demand of households and businesses remains weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through a low exchange rate and proactive fiscal spending play a major role in boosting aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9). An important pillar behind this is the looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared to other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, Japan has chosen to be deeply tied to the United States, at least financially, and has long since abandoned its ambition to internationalize the yen. This means that, unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Ensuring low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy are the top priorities in Japan's monetary policy system. Even though the Bank of Japan's holdings of Japanese bonds account for more than 50% of the total market, it is willing to squeeze out foreign investors.</b>Conversely, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to increase the internationalization of the RMB, it is necessary to ensure that bond yields are at a reasonable level and to guarantee the liquidity and openness of the bond market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the upper limit of the YCC interest rate to above 0.5% (currently 0.25%), and it is likely to do so in one step, exceeding market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan is primarily anchored to 10-year Japanese government bonds, the Japanese government bond yield curve convexes downwards at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12). We estimate the reasonable position of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield by using the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the 10-year and 7-year yield spread of 0.27% and 0.19% at recent highs), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the upper limit of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering market sentiment and the Bank of Japan's habit of adjusting ranges (the range is usually an integer multiple of 5 basis points),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, which is essentially equivalent to at least 25 basis points of rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, in an era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate cap mechanism in stages.</b>The policy signals for adjusting the ceiling interest rate are clearer than those for the central interest rate. The Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently, while controlling the financing costs of Japanese debt.</p><p>We believe the main reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, significant adjustment that exceeds market expectations is that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not suitable to fully guide market expectations and proceed gradually. On the contrary, this will lead to more speculative funds betting and arbitrage, causing greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese debt collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operations. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market.</b>Overseas institutions account for only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds mainly short Japanese bonds through futures (which offer better liquidity). Given insufficient liquidity in the spot market (futures delivery is inconvenient),<b>Short selling futures is mainly short-term and temporary.</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure on the Bank of Japan mainly comes from political and public opinion levels.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's proactive widening of the YCC range will put renewed pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"dovish\" monetary policy in developed economies, the Bank of Japan's shift will have landmark symbolic significance. In addition, as the world's largest economy in overseas investment, the interest rate and exchange rate changes resulting from the YCC change are likely to cause Japan to adjust (and possibly reduce) its exposure to overseas fixed-income investments, further exacerbating market volatility.</p><p>Japanese Yen: Depreciation pressure persisted before the Bank of Japan's action, especially around the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan takes action, the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike will objectively widen the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, leading to a weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts, funds will continue to bet on the Bank of Japan's adjustment policy before its interest rate meeting. While institutions are shorting Japanese bond futures, shorting the yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, making money for Japanese bond futures; the Bank of Japan holds rates steady, making money for yen shorts).</p><p>We believe that 140 is a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices rose by more than 40% year-on-year in May, reaching a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% to the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the Kishida cabinet's disapproval rating rose to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yen, social and political pressures will force the Bank of Japan to reassess its current policies, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in a timely manner.</p><p>Regarding the spillover effects of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japanese monetary policy in the second half of the year, we believe we should focus on two main points:<b>First, the downward inflection point in US Treasury yields may come later than before; second, the upward pressure on domestic bond yields may be greater in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The downward turning point in US Treasury yields will occur later, possibly in the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events indicate<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policies should not be underestimated.</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of US Treasury bonds in 2022 may need to be referenced in the 1970s and 1980s.</b>The pattern of downward turning points in US Treasury yields occurring before recessions since the beginning of the 21st century is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the beginning of the 21st century, a key reason why the 10-year US Treasury yield has often appeared before a recession is...<b>The Federal Reserve often initiates forward-looking interest rate cuts when the economy faces significant downward pressure.</b>(Figure 16), but the current monetary policy operation under high inflation may be more like that of the 1970s and 1980s, where policy shifts often occur after the start of a recession, which also leads to the peak (or second surge) of bond yields occurring during the recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, there are global aftershocks from Japan's monetary policy changes, China's rapid economic recovery in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors could lead to a downward inflection point in US Treasury yields not occurring until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, setting aside the grand narratives of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from a market logic perspective, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to believe that the 10-year bond yield will temporarily climb above 2.90% and reach 3% in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of the macroeconomic environment and market logic, overseas markets are experiencing a fluctuation between inflation and recession. However, domestically, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service sector, and the accelerated rise in pork prices may lead to a temporary increase in CPI, which may even exceed market expectations. Coupled with the fanning of overseas inflation narratives, this is clearly not good news for the bond market. And<b>The experience of pork prices soaring in 2019 while bond yields declined is not relevant for 2022.</b>—The macroeconomic backdrop at that time was low global inflation and central banks turning to easing with weak fundamentals, which is quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From an external perspective, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen was not yet over.</b>Even with the halo of the US tariff reductions and exemptions on China, the RMB still faces depreciation pressure. Coupled with the strength of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, monetary policy, in addition to the logic of returning to normal, has added a layer of internal and external competition.<b>Balancing currency depreciation with stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + normalization of monetary policy + limitation of imported inflation\" is formed,<b>The deleveraging of the bond market will accelerate the bond market correction.</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point in long-term US Treasury yields has been postponed, the domestic bond market is facing a correction, and coupled with the risk of a \"gray rhino\" stance from the Bank of Japan, we are expected to be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market.</b>In particular, some sectors that saw rapid valuation recovery and hot trading in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk Warning:</p><p>External demand declined due to tightening overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession in the third quarter, forcing central banks in Europe and the United States to turn ahead ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and pressure on Japan's YCC policy eased. OPEC's better-than-expected production increase in the second half of the year, a consensus reached in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a significant improvement in crude oil supply led to a decline in oil prices, easing global inflationary pressures.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f441cb44a16f93fb854d432eef3637","relate_stocks":{"EWJ":"日本ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158704109","content_text":"从OPEC秘书长巴尔金多意外身亡,到日本前首相安倍晋三意外被袭。能将这些事件串联起来的市场叙事可能是通胀已经从经济问题演变成政治和社会问题(当然,安倍遇刺背后还有宗教的因素):油价是2022年通胀高企的重要导火索,但是OPEC迟迟未能有效提高产量缓解不断趋紧的供需格局(图1);而日本央行在通胀上涨的情况下依旧无限制坚持YCC(收益率曲线控制政策)和政策宽松,现任央行行长黑田东彦是安倍经济学(通过量化宽松和扩大财政支出刺激经济)的拥虿(图2)。本篇报告我们想要针对后一方面进行分析:安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?我们认为日本不会抛弃安倍经济学和YCC政策,不过在海外通胀比衰退更加令人难以忍受的背景下,下半年至少需要注意三点风险:日本央行可能会选择一次性、超预期调整YCC政策的波动区间,而这无疑会阶段性加剧全球债市的压力;美债收益率的向下拐点可能会拖后至第四季度甚至更晚才会出现;对于国内来说,通胀和货币政策正常化叙事的强化将导致债券收益率上涨压力更大。对于YCC政策,日本央行的态度将是改变而非抛弃。我们主要回答三个问题:为什么需要改变?为什么不会抛弃?如何改变?疫情后通胀回归、经济波动明显加大,而2016年推出的YCC框架则定位于低通胀和低波动。日本央行在2016年9月推出YCC政策,将长端国债收益率固定在0%附近,有其特定的经济环境和政策诉求:一方面,YCC政策的初衷是为了帮助日本走出长期存在的通缩困境;另一方面YCC的两个主要功能是:通过日元汇率贬值拉动出口、引入输入性通胀;为扩大的政府支出创造良好的融资环境。当前看,YCC的不合时宜性凸显在三点上:第一,经过疫情的洗礼,全球已经逐步走出了过去10年的通缩阴影,当前以及未来十年我们可能迎来高通胀、高波动的年代,日本同样不能幸免,这与YCC政策最初的设置是相悖的;第二,在经济高波动的情况下,顺周期的YCC政策会进一步放大经济的动荡,这明显不适合日本老龄化、低欲望的社会;第三,缺乏灵活的调节机制,容易受到投机资金的攻击。YCC区间调整的频率很低,2016年推出以来仅2018年和2021年拓宽过区间。YCC政策的顺周期主要原因是作为调控中介目标的长端国债收益率是顺周期的。经济下行、通胀不振时为了不让债券收益率跌破下限,日本央行反而需要谨慎地进行债券购买,2020年疫情导致的衰退期间日本央行资产负债表扩张的速度远远慢于欧美央行(图5);而在经济过热、通胀上涨的情况下,为了避免债券收益率升破上限,日本央行又不得不加大债券的购买量,可能导致通胀火上浇油。而最吸引投机资金的一点是,YCC政策缺乏弹性、调整往往滞后。YCC政策的基本构造是一个稳定的中枢(作为政策目标,现在为0%)和一个可以调整宽窄的波动区间(但调整频率偏低)。这一点和2015年8月之前的人民币汇率定价颇为相似,而结果是在经济下行和投机资金的压力下,人民币汇率的定价放弃了锚定中枢,但是依旧保留波动区间的限制(图6,当前人民币兑美元的日度波动依旧存在2%的上下限限制)。不过我们认为,日本央行不会放弃YCC,同样日本政府不会放弃安倍经济学。第一,从短期看,有澳大利亚央行放弃YCC、债券收益率失控的前车之鉴(图7),日本放弃YCC导致的日债收益率和日元上行会让日本经济更加疲软。第二,从中长期政策来看,“安倍经济学”是日本经济的正确出路,而YCC政策是其中重要的一环。在人口老龄化、青年躺平化的日本,家庭和企业的借贷需求依旧不强,通过低汇率保持出口竞争力、积极的财政支出发挥拉动总需求的主要作用(图8和9),而背后重要的支柱就是相较其他经济体更加宽松的货币政策、更加低廉的融资成本。第三,从国家和政策定位上,至少在金融上日本选择了深度绑定美国,早已放弃了日元国际化的野心,这意味着和美联储不同,保证国内财政低成本融资、托底经济在日本货币政策体系中的居于首位,即使日本央行持有日债规模占全市场的比例已经超过了50%、挤出外国投资者也在所不惜,与之相对,无论是美国需要保持美元的全球储备地位,还是中国需要提高人民币的国际化程度,都需要保证债券收益率处于合理水平,保证债市流动性和对外开放程度。怎么变?下半年日本央行会上调YCC上限的利率至0.5%以上(现在为0.25%),而且很可能会采取一步到位、超市场预期的方式。由于日本央行主要锚定10年期日债,这导致日债收益率曲线在10年期限处下凸(图12),我们通过正常情况下曲线的陡峭程度来估算10年日债收益率的合理位置,以7年期为例(按近期高点0.27%和0.19%的10年与7年期限利差计算),在不改变基准政策利率的情况下,10年期日债上限水平至少在0.46%上方(图13),考虑到市场情绪以及日本央行调整区间的习惯(幅度通常为5bp的整数倍),下半年YCC区间很可能拓宽至±0.5%,本质上相当于加息至少25bp。往后看,在高通胀、高波动时代YCC可能阶段性演变成一种利率上限机制,上限利率调整比中枢利率的政策信号更明确,日本央行可以在控制日债融资成本的前提下,通过更频繁地调整上限利率和债券购买来进行逆周期操作。我们认为日本央行会一次性、大幅度、超市场预期调整的原因主要在于,历史经验表明调整僵化的定价机制(例如固定汇率机制)不宜充分引导市场预期、循序渐进,这反而会导致更多的投机资金押注、套利,造成更大的市场动荡。日本央行这么做,日债会崩盘?不会,其实日本央行在操作上并不被动。一方面,日本央行是日本国债现货市场上最大的持有方,海外机构的占比仅在10%左右(图14);另一方面,投机资金做空日债主要是通过期货(流动性更好),在现货市场流动性不足(期货交割不方便)的情况下,做空期货主要是短期和阶段性的(主要在日本央行议息会议前,图15)。日本央行的压力主要来自于政治和社会民意层面。不过日本央行主动拓宽YCC区间,会导致短期内全球债券市场再次承压。日本央行作为发达经济体货币政策“鸽派”最后的大本营,它的转向将具有里程碑式的象征意义。除此之外,作为全球对外投资头寸最大的经济体,YCC变动带来的利率和汇率变化,很可能会使得日本调整(很可能是减少)对外固定收益投资的敞口,进一步加剧市场动荡。日元:在日本央行行动前贬值压力一直存在,尤其是议息会议前后。一方面,在日本央行行动前,美联储持续加息客观上会拉大日美利差,导致日元走弱;另一方面,在美联储货币政策转向前,资金会持续在日本央行议息会议前押注其调整政策,机构在做空日债期货的同时,做空日元是很好的对冲仓位(日本央行调整政策,日债期货赚钱;日本央行按兵不动,日元空头赚钱)。我们认为140是日元的一道坎。日本5月的进口价格同比增速超过40%,创下1980年以来的新高,其中日元贬值贡献了约40%的增速。由于物价的上涨,岸田内阁的不支持率在7月已经升至履新以来的高位27%。我们认为日元跌破140元后,来自社会和政治层面的压力会迫使日本央行重新评估现行的政策,日本财政部也适时进行外汇干预。对于安倍晋三被刺和下半年日本货币政策“灰犀牛”的外溢影响,我们觉得主要关注两个点:一是美债收益率的向下拐点可能会较之前来得更晚,二是国内债券收益率下半年上涨的压力可能会更大。美债收益率向下的拐点会出现得更晚,可能要到第四季度甚至更晚。近期的一系列事件表明不应低估当前欧美央行政策紧缩的决心。我们认为2022年美债的走势特点可能需要参考20世纪70至80年代,21世纪以来美债收益率向下拐点在衰退前出现的模式已经不适用了。21世纪以来10年期美债收益率挂点往往在衰退前出现的重要原因是美联储往往会经济下行压力较大时率先开启前瞻式降息(图16),但是当前高通胀下的货币政策操作可能更像20世纪70至80年代,政策转向往往发生在衰退开始之后,这也导致债券收益率的高点(或者二次冲高点)会出现在衰退期间(图17)。除此之外,日本货币政策变动带来的全球“余震”,中国经济在第三季度的快速复苏,以及拜登政府在11月中期选举前对于通胀的异常重视。这些因素会导致美债收益率的向下拐点可能要到第四季度才会出现。对于中国来说,抛开地缘政治和逆全球化的宏大叙事,从市场逻辑看,下半年债券收益率上行的压力会更大,我们倾向于认为下半年10年期债券收益率会阶段性站上2.90%,触及3%:从宏观环境和市场逻辑上看,海外市场是通胀和衰退此消彼长,但国内,至少在第三季度,经济快速复苏,服务业恢复和猪肉加速上涨可能导致CPI阶段性上3、甚至超市场预期,叠加海外通胀叙事的煽风点火,这对于债市明显不是好消息;而2019年猪肉价格大涨、债券利率反而下行的经历在2022年不具备参考意义——彼时的宏观大背景是全球通胀低迷,基本面偏弱下央行纷纷转向宽松,这与今年存在较大差异。从外部环境看,日本货币政策调整前,日元贬值引领的“亚洲货币战”尚未结束,即使有美国对华减免关税的光环存在,人民币还是存在贬值压力,叠加美元和美债收益率的“坚挺”,货币政策在回归常态的逻辑外,又多了一层内外博弈的色彩,如何在汇率贬值和稳定通胀预期之间平衡会给债市带来额外的不确定性。一旦“复苏+通胀+货币政策回归正常化+限制输入性通胀”的逻辑形成,债市杠杆的去化会加速债市调整。对于国内权益市场来说,通胀叙事下长端美债收益率向下拐点延期,国内债市面临调整,叠加日本央行“灰犀牛”的风险,我们对第三季度成长股的表现较市场会更趋谨慎,尤其是部分第二季度估值恢复迅速、成交火热的板块,需要控制风险。风险提示:海外货币政策收紧下外需回落,国内疫情扩散超市场预期;欧美第三季度加速进入深度衰退,欧美央行被迫提前转向,长端债券收益率提前回落,日本YCC政策压力减小;OPEC下半年超预期大幅增产、俄乌冲突达成共识,原油供给大幅改善导致油价下跌,全球通胀压力缓和。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9071309967,"gmtCreate":1657466798359,"gmtModify":1676536010830,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9071309967","repostId":"1158704109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158704109","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1657455012,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158704109?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-07-10 20:10","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"Who is the next \"domino\" after Abe's fall?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158704109","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>From the unexpected death of OPEC Secretary General Barkindo to the unexpected attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that can connect these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem into a political and social one.</b>(Of course, there were religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices were a major trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been slow to effectively increase production to alleviate the increasingly tight supply and demand situation (Figure 1). Despite rising inflation, the Bank of Japan continues to adhere to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without limit. The current governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, is a symbol of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenges of inflation after Abe's downfall? What impact will this have on the market?</b></p><p>We believe Japan will not abandon Abenomics and the YCC policy. However, given that overseas inflation is more unbearable than a recession, at least three risks need to be noted in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to make a one-time, unexpected adjustment to the fluctuation range of its YCC policy, which will undoubtedly exacerbate the pressure on the global bond market in stages.</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point in US Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening narrative of inflation and monetary policy normalization will lead to greater upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>The Bank of Japan's attitude towards the YCC policy will be one of change rather than abandonment. We mainly answer three questions: Why do we need to change? Why not abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned for low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy was to help Japan get out of its long-standing deflationary predicament; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: to boost exports through the depreciation of the yen and to introduce imported inflation; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>Currently, the inappropriateness of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the pandemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the shadow of deflation over the past decade.</b>We may face an era of high inflation and high volatility now and in the next decade, and Japan will not be spared either, which contradicts the original setting of the YCC policy. Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify economic volatility.</b>This is clearly not suitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lacking a flexible regulatory mechanism, it is vulnerable to attacks by speculative funds.</b>。 The YCC range is adjusted very infrequently; since its launch in 2016, the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021.</p><p>The main reason for the pro-cyclical nature of the YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which serves as a regulatory intermediary target, is pro-cyclical. During economic downturns and low inflation, the Bank of Japan needs to be cautious in its bond purchases to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit. During the recession caused by the pandemic in 2020, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet expanded much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5). With the economy overheating and inflation rising, the Bank of Japan has had to increase its bond purchases to prevent bond yields from breaking through the upper limit, which could fuel inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What most attracts speculative funds is that YCC policies lack flexibility and adjustments are often delayed. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable center (currently 0% as a policy objective) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is relatively low).<b>This is quite similar to the RMB exchange rate pricing before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of the RMB exchange rate abandoned the anchoring center, but still retained the limitation of the fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar is still subject to an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not abandon YCC, just as the Japanese government will not abandon Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from the Reserve Bank of Australia's abandonment of YCC and the out-of-control bond yields.</b>(Figure 7) The appreciation of Japanese bond yields and the yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will further weaken the Japanese economy. Second, from the perspective of medium- and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japan's economy</b>The YCC policy is an important part of this. In Japan, where the population is aging and young people are lying down, the borrowing demand of households and businesses remains weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through a low exchange rate and proactive fiscal spending play a major role in boosting aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9). An important pillar behind this is the looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared to other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, Japan has chosen to be deeply tied to the United States, at least financially, and has long since abandoned its ambition to internationalize the yen. This means that, unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Ensuring low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy are the top priorities in Japan's monetary policy system. Even though the Bank of Japan's holdings of Japanese bonds account for more than 50% of the total market, it is willing to squeeze out foreign investors.</b>Conversely, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to increase the internationalization of the RMB, it is necessary to ensure that bond yields are at a reasonable level and to guarantee the liquidity and openness of the bond market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the upper limit of the YCC interest rate to above 0.5% (currently 0.25%), and it is likely to do so in one step, exceeding market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan is primarily anchored to 10-year Japanese government bonds, the Japanese government bond yield curve convexes downwards at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12). We estimate the reasonable position of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield by using the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the 10-year and 7-year yield spread of 0.27% and 0.19% at recent highs), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the upper limit of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering market sentiment and the Bank of Japan's habit of adjusting ranges (the range is usually an integer multiple of 5 basis points),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, which is essentially equivalent to at least 25 basis points of rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, in an era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate cap mechanism in stages.</b>The policy signals for adjusting the ceiling interest rate are clearer than those for the central interest rate. The Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently, while controlling the financing costs of Japanese debt.</p><p>We believe the main reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, significant adjustment that exceeds market expectations is that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not suitable to fully guide market expectations and proceed gradually. On the contrary, this will lead to more speculative funds betting and arbitrage, causing greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese debt collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operations. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market.</b>Overseas institutions account for only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds mainly short Japanese bonds through futures (which offer better liquidity). Given insufficient liquidity in the spot market (futures delivery is inconvenient),<b>Short selling futures is mainly short-term and temporary.</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure on the Bank of Japan mainly comes from political and public opinion levels.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's proactive widening of the YCC range will put renewed pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"dovish\" monetary policy in developed economies, the Bank of Japan's shift will have landmark symbolic significance. In addition, as the world's largest economy in overseas investment, the interest rate and exchange rate changes resulting from the YCC change are likely to cause Japan to adjust (and possibly reduce) its exposure to overseas fixed-income investments, further exacerbating market volatility.</p><p>Japanese Yen: Depreciation pressure persisted before the Bank of Japan's action, especially around the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan takes action, the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike will objectively widen the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, leading to a weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts, funds will continue to bet on the Bank of Japan's adjustment policy before its interest rate meeting. While institutions are shorting Japanese bond futures, shorting the yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, making money for Japanese bond futures; the Bank of Japan holds rates steady, making money for yen shorts).</p><p>We believe that 140 is a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices rose by more than 40% year-on-year in May, reaching a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% to the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the Kishida cabinet's disapproval rating rose to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yen, social and political pressures will force the Bank of Japan to reassess its current policies, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in a timely manner.</p><p>Regarding the spillover effects of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japanese monetary policy in the second half of the year, we believe we should focus on two main points:<b>First, the downward inflection point in US Treasury yields may come later than before; second, the upward pressure on domestic bond yields may be greater in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The downward turning point in US Treasury yields will occur later, possibly in the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events indicate<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policies should not be underestimated.</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of US Treasury bonds in 2022 may need to be referenced in the 1970s and 1980s.</b>The pattern of downward turning points in US Treasury yields occurring before recessions since the beginning of the 21st century is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the beginning of the 21st century, a key reason why the 10-year US Treasury yield has often appeared before a recession is...<b>The Federal Reserve often initiates forward-looking interest rate cuts when the economy faces significant downward pressure.</b>(Figure 16), but the current monetary policy operation under high inflation may be more like that of the 1970s and 1980s, where policy shifts often occur after the start of a recession, which also leads to the peak (or second surge) of bond yields occurring during the recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, there are global aftershocks from Japan's monetary policy changes, China's rapid economic recovery in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors could lead to a downward inflection point in US Treasury yields not occurring until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, setting aside the grand narratives of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from a market logic perspective, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to believe that the 10-year bond yield will temporarily climb above 2.90% and reach 3% in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of the macroeconomic environment and market logic, overseas markets are experiencing a fluctuation between inflation and recession. However, domestically, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service sector, and the accelerated rise in pork prices may lead to a temporary increase in CPI, which may even exceed market expectations. Coupled with the fanning of overseas inflation narratives, this is clearly not good news for the bond market. And<b>The experience of pork prices soaring in 2019 while bond yields declined is not relevant for 2022.</b>—The macroeconomic backdrop at that time was low global inflation and central banks turning to easing with weak fundamentals, which is quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From an external perspective, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen was not yet over.</b>Even with the halo of the US tariff reductions and exemptions on China, the RMB still faces depreciation pressure. Coupled with the strength of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, monetary policy, in addition to the logic of returning to normal, has added a layer of internal and external competition.<b>Balancing currency depreciation with stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + normalization of monetary policy + limitation of imported inflation\" is formed,<b>The deleveraging of the bond market will accelerate the bond market correction.</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point in long-term US Treasury yields has been postponed, the domestic bond market is facing a correction, and coupled with the risk of a \"gray rhino\" stance from the Bank of Japan, we are expected to be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market.</b>In particular, some sectors that saw rapid valuation recovery and hot trading in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk Warning:</p><p>External demand declined due to tightening overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession in the third quarter, forcing central banks in Europe and the United States to turn ahead ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and pressure on Japan's YCC policy eased. OPEC's better-than-expected production increase in the second half of the year, a consensus reached in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a significant improvement in crude oil supply led to a decline in oil prices, easing global inflationary pressures.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Who is the next \"domino\" after Abe's fall?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWho is the next \"domino\" after Abe's fall?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">川阅全球宏观</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-07-10 20:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>From the unexpected death of OPEC Secretary General Barkindo to the unexpected attack on former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The market narrative that can connect these events may be<b>Inflation has evolved from an economic problem into a political and social one.</b>(Of course, there were religious factors behind Abe's assassination): Oil prices were a major trigger for high inflation in 2022, but OPEC has been slow to effectively increase production to alleviate the increasingly tight supply and demand situation (Figure 1). Despite rising inflation, the Bank of Japan continues to adhere to YCC (yield curve control policy) and policy easing without limit. The current governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, is a symbol of Abenomics (stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and expanding fiscal spending) (Figure 2).</p><p>In this report, we want to analyze the latter aspect:<b>How will the Bank of Japan respond to the new challenges of inflation after Abe's downfall? What impact will this have on the market?</b></p><p>We believe Japan will not abandon Abenomics and the YCC policy. However, given that overseas inflation is more unbearable than a recession, at least three risks need to be noted in the second half of the year:</p><p><ul><li>The Bank of Japan may choose to make a one-time, unexpected adjustment to the fluctuation range of its YCC policy, which will undoubtedly exacerbate the pressure on the global bond market in stages.</p><p></li><li>The downward inflection point in US Treasury yields may be delayed until the fourth quarter or even later;</p><p></li><li>Domestically, the strengthening narrative of inflation and monetary policy normalization will lead to greater upward pressure on bond yields.</p><p></li></ul><b>The Bank of Japan's attitude towards the YCC policy will be one of change rather than abandonment. We mainly answer three questions: Why do we need to change? Why not abandon it? How to change?</b></p><p>After the pandemic, inflation returned and economic volatility increased significantly, while the YCC framework launched in 2016 was positioned for low inflation and low volatility. The Bank of Japan launched the YCC policy in September 2016, fixing the long-term Treasury Bond yield at around 0%, which has its own specific economic environment and policy demands: on the one hand, the original intention of the YCC policy was to help Japan get out of its long-standing deflationary predicament; On the other hand, the two main functions of YCC are: to boost exports through the depreciation of the yen and to introduce imported inflation; Create a favorable financing environment for expanded government spending.</p><p>Currently, the inappropriateness of YCC is highlighted in three points: First, after the baptism of the pandemic,<b>The world has gradually emerged from the shadow of deflation over the past decade.</b>We may face an era of high inflation and high volatility now and in the next decade, and Japan will not be spared either, which contradicts the original setting of the YCC policy. Second, in the context of high economic volatility,<b>The pro-cyclical YCC policy will further amplify economic volatility.</b>This is clearly not suitable for Japan's aging, low-desire society; Third,<b>Lacking a flexible regulatory mechanism, it is vulnerable to attacks by speculative funds.</b>。 The YCC range is adjusted very infrequently; since its launch in 2016, the range has only been widened in 2018 and 2021.</p><p>The main reason for the pro-cyclical nature of the YCC policy is that the long-term Treasury Bond yield, which serves as a regulatory intermediary target, is pro-cyclical. During economic downturns and low inflation, the Bank of Japan needs to be cautious in its bond purchases to prevent bond yields from falling below the lower limit. During the recession caused by the pandemic in 2020, the Bank of Japan's balance sheet expanded much slower than that of European and American central banks (Figure 5). With the economy overheating and inflation rising, the Bank of Japan has had to increase its bond purchases to prevent bond yields from breaking through the upper limit, which could fuel inflation.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ff740a636ff810d6a3b8ab15a424690\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>What most attracts speculative funds is that YCC policies lack flexibility and adjustments are often delayed. The basic structure of YCC policy is a stable center (currently 0% as a policy objective) and a fluctuation range that can be adjusted wide and narrow (but the adjustment frequency is relatively low).<b>This is quite similar to the RMB exchange rate pricing before August 2015.</b>As a result, under the pressure of economic downturn and speculative funds, the pricing of the RMB exchange rate abandoned the anchoring center, but still retained the limitation of the fluctuation range (Figure 6, the current daily fluctuation of the RMB against the US dollar is still subject to an upper and lower limit of 2%).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cd11e9a93e0b7772ec60eb274c499f2\" tg-width=\"798\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>However, we believe that the Bank of Japan will not abandon YCC, just as the Japanese government will not abandon Abenomics. First, in the short term,<b>There are lessons learned from the Reserve Bank of Australia's abandonment of YCC and the out-of-control bond yields.</b>(Figure 7) The appreciation of Japanese bond yields and the yen caused by Japan's abandonment of YCC will further weaken the Japanese economy. Second, from the perspective of medium- and long-term policies,<b>\"Abenomics\" is the right way out for Japan's economy</b>The YCC policy is an important part of this. In Japan, where the population is aging and young people are lying down, the borrowing demand of households and businesses remains weak. Maintaining export competitiveness through a low exchange rate and proactive fiscal spending play a major role in boosting aggregate demand (Figures 8 and 9). An important pillar behind this is the looser monetary policy and lower financing costs compared to other economies.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1fbc2262fa3278c30046afd92d63e27\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Third, in terms of national and policy positioning, Japan has chosen to be deeply tied to the United States, at least financially, and has long since abandoned its ambition to internationalize the yen. This means that, unlike the Federal Reserve,<b>Ensuring low-cost domestic fiscal financing and supporting the economy are the top priorities in Japan's monetary policy system. Even though the Bank of Japan's holdings of Japanese bonds account for more than 50% of the total market, it is willing to squeeze out foreign investors.</b>Conversely, whether the United States needs to maintain the global reserve status of the US dollar or China needs to increase the internationalization of the RMB, it is necessary to ensure that bond yields are at a reasonable level and to guarantee the liquidity and openness of the bond market.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f3209f9effe35bc9d550839efe4be1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>How to change? In the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan will raise the upper limit of the YCC interest rate to above 0.5% (currently 0.25%), and it is likely to do so in one step, exceeding market expectations. Since the Bank of Japan is primarily anchored to 10-year Japanese government bonds, the Japanese government bond yield curve convexes downwards at the 10-year maturity (Figure 12). We estimate the reasonable position of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield by using the steepness of the curve under normal circumstances. Taking the 7-year maturity as an example (calculated based on the 10-year and 7-year yield spread of 0.27% and 0.19% at recent highs), without changing the benchmark policy rate, the upper limit of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield is at least above 0.46% (Figure 13). Considering market sentiment and the Bank of Japan's habit of adjusting ranges (the range is usually an integer multiple of 5 basis points),<b>The YCC range is likely to widen to ±0.5% in the second half of the year, which is essentially equivalent to at least 25 basis points of rate hike.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6e8684aa6a0873c78c54ffaa1be3e02\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"473\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Looking ahead, in an era of high inflation and high volatility, YCC may evolve into an interest rate cap mechanism in stages.</b>The policy signals for adjusting the ceiling interest rate are clearer than those for the central interest rate. The Bank of Japan can conduct counter-cyclical operations by adjusting the ceiling interest rate and bond purchases more frequently, while controlling the financing costs of Japanese debt.</p><p>We believe the main reason why the Bank of Japan will make a one-time, significant adjustment that exceeds market expectations is that historical experience shows that adjusting rigid pricing mechanisms (such as fixed exchange rate mechanisms) is not suitable to fully guide market expectations and proceed gradually. On the contrary, this will lead to more speculative funds betting and arbitrage, causing greater market turmoil.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e637abc9b7fb9feb7d02473e0f0ccc3b\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"506\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>If the Bank of Japan does this, will Japanese debt collapse? No, in fact, the Bank of Japan is not passive in its operations. On the one hand,<b>The Bank of Japan is the largest holder in Japan's Treasury Bond spot market.</b>Overseas institutions account for only about 10% (Figure 14); On the other hand, speculative funds mainly short Japanese bonds through futures (which offer better liquidity). Given insufficient liquidity in the spot market (futures delivery is inconvenient),<b>Short selling futures is mainly short-term and temporary.</b>(Mainly before the Bank of Japan interest rate meeting, Figure 15). The pressure on the Bank of Japan mainly comes from political and public opinion levels.</p><p>However, the Bank of Japan's proactive widening of the YCC range will put renewed pressure on the global bond market in the short term. As the last stronghold of the \"dovish\" monetary policy in developed economies, the Bank of Japan's shift will have landmark symbolic significance. In addition, as the world's largest economy in overseas investment, the interest rate and exchange rate changes resulting from the YCC change are likely to cause Japan to adjust (and possibly reduce) its exposure to overseas fixed-income investments, further exacerbating market volatility.</p><p>Japanese Yen: Depreciation pressure persisted before the Bank of Japan's action, especially around the interest rate meeting. On the one hand, before the Bank of Japan takes action, the Federal Reserve's continued rate hike will objectively widen the interest rate differential between Japan and the United States, leading to a weakening of the yen; On the other hand, before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts, funds will continue to bet on the Bank of Japan's adjustment policy before its interest rate meeting. While institutions are shorting Japanese bond futures, shorting the yen is a good hedging position (the Bank of Japan adjusts its policy, making money for Japanese bond futures; the Bank of Japan holds rates steady, making money for yen shorts).</p><p>We believe that 140 is a hurdle for the yen. Japan's import prices rose by more than 40% year-on-year in May, reaching a new high since 1980.<b>The depreciation of the yen contributed about 40% to the growth rate.</b>Due to rising prices, the Kishida cabinet's disapproval rating rose to a high of 27% in July since taking office. We believe that after the yen falls below 140 yen, social and political pressures will force the Bank of Japan to reassess its current policies, and the Japanese Ministry of Finance will also intervene in foreign exchange in a timely manner.</p><p>Regarding the spillover effects of Shinzo Abe's assassination and the \"gray rhino\" of Japanese monetary policy in the second half of the year, we believe we should focus on two main points:<b>First, the downward inflection point in US Treasury yields may come later than before; second, the upward pressure on domestic bond yields may be greater in the second half of the year.</b></p><p>The downward turning point in US Treasury yields will occur later, possibly in the fourth quarter or even later. A series of recent events indicate<b>The current determination of European and American central banks to tighten policies should not be underestimated.</b>。<b>We believe that the trend characteristics of US Treasury bonds in 2022 may need to be referenced in the 1970s and 1980s.</b>The pattern of downward turning points in US Treasury yields occurring before recessions since the beginning of the 21st century is no longer applicable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d12b56f4d11a290edbf9929ab140588d\" tg-width=\"799\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since the beginning of the 21st century, a key reason why the 10-year US Treasury yield has often appeared before a recession is...<b>The Federal Reserve often initiates forward-looking interest rate cuts when the economy faces significant downward pressure.</b>(Figure 16), but the current monetary policy operation under high inflation may be more like that of the 1970s and 1980s, where policy shifts often occur after the start of a recession, which also leads to the peak (or second surge) of bond yields occurring during the recession (Figure 17).</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ada6ca2043944da4ba1a40179b1f3d9\" tg-width=\"803\" tg-height=\"477\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, there are global aftershocks from Japan's monetary policy changes, China's rapid economic recovery in the third quarter, and the Biden administration's unusual emphasis on inflation ahead of the November midterm elections. These factors could lead to a downward inflection point in US Treasury yields not occurring until the fourth quarter.</p><p>For China, setting aside the grand narratives of geopolitics and anti-globalization, from a market logic perspective, the upward pressure on bond yields will be greater in the second half of the year. We tend to believe that the 10-year bond yield will temporarily climb above 2.90% and reach 3% in the second half of the year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f302c8709a5fb3156a0feae16b77a4bb\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>From the perspective of the macroeconomic environment and market logic, overseas markets are experiencing a fluctuation between inflation and recession. However, domestically, at least in the third quarter, the rapid economic recovery, the recovery of the service sector, and the accelerated rise in pork prices may lead to a temporary increase in CPI, which may even exceed market expectations. Coupled with the fanning of overseas inflation narratives, this is clearly not good news for the bond market. And<b>The experience of pork prices soaring in 2019 while bond yields declined is not relevant for 2022.</b>—The macroeconomic backdrop at that time was low global inflation and central banks turning to easing with weak fundamentals, which is quite different from this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6c0293c9458a529f4248e446009355\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"478\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>From an external perspective, before Japan's monetary policy adjustment, the \"Asian currency war\" led by the depreciation of the yen was not yet over.</b>Even with the halo of the US tariff reductions and exemptions on China, the RMB still faces depreciation pressure. Coupled with the strength of the US dollar and US Treasury yields, monetary policy, in addition to the logic of returning to normal, has added a layer of internal and external competition.<b>Balancing currency depreciation with stable inflation expectations will bring additional uncertainty to the bond market.</b></p><p>Once the logic of \"recovery + inflation + normalization of monetary policy + limitation of imported inflation\" is formed,<b>The deleveraging of the bond market will accelerate the bond market correction.</b>。</p><p>For the domestic equity market,<b>Under the inflation narrative, the downward inflection point in long-term US Treasury yields has been postponed, the domestic bond market is facing a correction, and coupled with the risk of a \"gray rhino\" stance from the Bank of Japan, we are expected to be more cautious about the performance of growth stocks in the third quarter than the market.</b>In particular, some sectors that saw rapid valuation recovery and hot trading in the second quarter need to control risks.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caf9e145bba244c2267f601c20b4f133\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"509\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Risk Warning:</p><p>External demand declined due to tightening overseas monetary policy, and the spread of the domestic epidemic exceeded market expectations; Europe and the United States accelerated into a deep recession in the third quarter, forcing central banks in Europe and the United States to turn ahead ahead of schedule, long-term bond yields fell ahead of schedule, and pressure on Japan's YCC policy eased. OPEC's better-than-expected production increase in the second half of the year, a consensus reached in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a significant improvement in crude oil supply led to a decline in oil prices, easing global inflationary pressures.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd\">川阅全球宏观</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65f441cb44a16f93fb854d432eef3637","relate_stocks":{"EWJ":"日本ETF-iShares MSCI"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzUzMzEyODIyMA==&mid=2247499790&idx=1&sn=0616e2d5b88409b0750bc7c75927f617&chksm=faaa357dcdddbc6b9d83fe293f78f6464bfbb114a5d4ec2245a98352cc2e204f3388d970afe2&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0710p4fnASCgjEhnoxYWSG13&sharer_sharetime=1657442265849&sharer_shareid=00a55b671777cf0e253d4693000ead51%23rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158704109","content_text":"从OPEC秘书长巴尔金多意外身亡,到日本前首相安倍晋三意外被袭。能将这些事件串联起来的市场叙事可能是通胀已经从经济问题演变成政治和社会问题(当然,安倍遇刺背后还有宗教的因素):油价是2022年通胀高企的重要导火索,但是OPEC迟迟未能有效提高产量缓解不断趋紧的供需格局(图1);而日本央行在通胀上涨的情况下依旧无限制坚持YCC(收益率曲线控制政策)和政策宽松,现任央行行长黑田东彦是安倍经济学(通过量化宽松和扩大财政支出刺激经济)的拥虿(图2)。本篇报告我们想要针对后一方面进行分析:安倍倒下后日本央行将如何应对通胀的新挑战?对市场有何影响?我们认为日本不会抛弃安倍经济学和YCC政策,不过在海外通胀比衰退更加令人难以忍受的背景下,下半年至少需要注意三点风险:日本央行可能会选择一次性、超预期调整YCC政策的波动区间,而这无疑会阶段性加剧全球债市的压力;美债收益率的向下拐点可能会拖后至第四季度甚至更晚才会出现;对于国内来说,通胀和货币政策正常化叙事的强化将导致债券收益率上涨压力更大。对于YCC政策,日本央行的态度将是改变而非抛弃。我们主要回答三个问题:为什么需要改变?为什么不会抛弃?如何改变?疫情后通胀回归、经济波动明显加大,而2016年推出的YCC框架则定位于低通胀和低波动。日本央行在2016年9月推出YCC政策,将长端国债收益率固定在0%附近,有其特定的经济环境和政策诉求:一方面,YCC政策的初衷是为了帮助日本走出长期存在的通缩困境;另一方面YCC的两个主要功能是:通过日元汇率贬值拉动出口、引入输入性通胀;为扩大的政府支出创造良好的融资环境。当前看,YCC的不合时宜性凸显在三点上:第一,经过疫情的洗礼,全球已经逐步走出了过去10年的通缩阴影,当前以及未来十年我们可能迎来高通胀、高波动的年代,日本同样不能幸免,这与YCC政策最初的设置是相悖的;第二,在经济高波动的情况下,顺周期的YCC政策会进一步放大经济的动荡,这明显不适合日本老龄化、低欲望的社会;第三,缺乏灵活的调节机制,容易受到投机资金的攻击。YCC区间调整的频率很低,2016年推出以来仅2018年和2021年拓宽过区间。YCC政策的顺周期主要原因是作为调控中介目标的长端国债收益率是顺周期的。经济下行、通胀不振时为了不让债券收益率跌破下限,日本央行反而需要谨慎地进行债券购买,2020年疫情导致的衰退期间日本央行资产负债表扩张的速度远远慢于欧美央行(图5);而在经济过热、通胀上涨的情况下,为了避免债券收益率升破上限,日本央行又不得不加大债券的购买量,可能导致通胀火上浇油。而最吸引投机资金的一点是,YCC政策缺乏弹性、调整往往滞后。YCC政策的基本构造是一个稳定的中枢(作为政策目标,现在为0%)和一个可以调整宽窄的波动区间(但调整频率偏低)。这一点和2015年8月之前的人民币汇率定价颇为相似,而结果是在经济下行和投机资金的压力下,人民币汇率的定价放弃了锚定中枢,但是依旧保留波动区间的限制(图6,当前人民币兑美元的日度波动依旧存在2%的上下限限制)。不过我们认为,日本央行不会放弃YCC,同样日本政府不会放弃安倍经济学。第一,从短期看,有澳大利亚央行放弃YCC、债券收益率失控的前车之鉴(图7),日本放弃YCC导致的日债收益率和日元上行会让日本经济更加疲软。第二,从中长期政策来看,“安倍经济学”是日本经济的正确出路,而YCC政策是其中重要的一环。在人口老龄化、青年躺平化的日本,家庭和企业的借贷需求依旧不强,通过低汇率保持出口竞争力、积极的财政支出发挥拉动总需求的主要作用(图8和9),而背后重要的支柱就是相较其他经济体更加宽松的货币政策、更加低廉的融资成本。第三,从国家和政策定位上,至少在金融上日本选择了深度绑定美国,早已放弃了日元国际化的野心,这意味着和美联储不同,保证国内财政低成本融资、托底经济在日本货币政策体系中的居于首位,即使日本央行持有日债规模占全市场的比例已经超过了50%、挤出外国投资者也在所不惜,与之相对,无论是美国需要保持美元的全球储备地位,还是中国需要提高人民币的国际化程度,都需要保证债券收益率处于合理水平,保证债市流动性和对外开放程度。怎么变?下半年日本央行会上调YCC上限的利率至0.5%以上(现在为0.25%),而且很可能会采取一步到位、超市场预期的方式。由于日本央行主要锚定10年期日债,这导致日债收益率曲线在10年期限处下凸(图12),我们通过正常情况下曲线的陡峭程度来估算10年日债收益率的合理位置,以7年期为例(按近期高点0.27%和0.19%的10年与7年期限利差计算),在不改变基准政策利率的情况下,10年期日债上限水平至少在0.46%上方(图13),考虑到市场情绪以及日本央行调整区间的习惯(幅度通常为5bp的整数倍),下半年YCC区间很可能拓宽至±0.5%,本质上相当于加息至少25bp。往后看,在高通胀、高波动时代YCC可能阶段性演变成一种利率上限机制,上限利率调整比中枢利率的政策信号更明确,日本央行可以在控制日债融资成本的前提下,通过更频繁地调整上限利率和债券购买来进行逆周期操作。我们认为日本央行会一次性、大幅度、超市场预期调整的原因主要在于,历史经验表明调整僵化的定价机制(例如固定汇率机制)不宜充分引导市场预期、循序渐进,这反而会导致更多的投机资金押注、套利,造成更大的市场动荡。日本央行这么做,日债会崩盘?不会,其实日本央行在操作上并不被动。一方面,日本央行是日本国债现货市场上最大的持有方,海外机构的占比仅在10%左右(图14);另一方面,投机资金做空日债主要是通过期货(流动性更好),在现货市场流动性不足(期货交割不方便)的情况下,做空期货主要是短期和阶段性的(主要在日本央行议息会议前,图15)。日本央行的压力主要来自于政治和社会民意层面。不过日本央行主动拓宽YCC区间,会导致短期内全球债券市场再次承压。日本央行作为发达经济体货币政策“鸽派”最后的大本营,它的转向将具有里程碑式的象征意义。除此之外,作为全球对外投资头寸最大的经济体,YCC变动带来的利率和汇率变化,很可能会使得日本调整(很可能是减少)对外固定收益投资的敞口,进一步加剧市场动荡。日元:在日本央行行动前贬值压力一直存在,尤其是议息会议前后。一方面,在日本央行行动前,美联储持续加息客观上会拉大日美利差,导致日元走弱;另一方面,在美联储货币政策转向前,资金会持续在日本央行议息会议前押注其调整政策,机构在做空日债期货的同时,做空日元是很好的对冲仓位(日本央行调整政策,日债期货赚钱;日本央行按兵不动,日元空头赚钱)。我们认为140是日元的一道坎。日本5月的进口价格同比增速超过40%,创下1980年以来的新高,其中日元贬值贡献了约40%的增速。由于物价的上涨,岸田内阁的不支持率在7月已经升至履新以来的高位27%。我们认为日元跌破140元后,来自社会和政治层面的压力会迫使日本央行重新评估现行的政策,日本财政部也适时进行外汇干预。对于安倍晋三被刺和下半年日本货币政策“灰犀牛”的外溢影响,我们觉得主要关注两个点:一是美债收益率的向下拐点可能会较之前来得更晚,二是国内债券收益率下半年上涨的压力可能会更大。美债收益率向下的拐点会出现得更晚,可能要到第四季度甚至更晚。近期的一系列事件表明不应低估当前欧美央行政策紧缩的决心。我们认为2022年美债的走势特点可能需要参考20世纪70至80年代,21世纪以来美债收益率向下拐点在衰退前出现的模式已经不适用了。21世纪以来10年期美债收益率挂点往往在衰退前出现的重要原因是美联储往往会经济下行压力较大时率先开启前瞻式降息(图16),但是当前高通胀下的货币政策操作可能更像20世纪70至80年代,政策转向往往发生在衰退开始之后,这也导致债券收益率的高点(或者二次冲高点)会出现在衰退期间(图17)。除此之外,日本货币政策变动带来的全球“余震”,中国经济在第三季度的快速复苏,以及拜登政府在11月中期选举前对于通胀的异常重视。这些因素会导致美债收益率的向下拐点可能要到第四季度才会出现。对于中国来说,抛开地缘政治和逆全球化的宏大叙事,从市场逻辑看,下半年债券收益率上行的压力会更大,我们倾向于认为下半年10年期债券收益率会阶段性站上2.90%,触及3%:从宏观环境和市场逻辑上看,海外市场是通胀和衰退此消彼长,但国内,至少在第三季度,经济快速复苏,服务业恢复和猪肉加速上涨可能导致CPI阶段性上3、甚至超市场预期,叠加海外通胀叙事的煽风点火,这对于债市明显不是好消息;而2019年猪肉价格大涨、债券利率反而下行的经历在2022年不具备参考意义——彼时的宏观大背景是全球通胀低迷,基本面偏弱下央行纷纷转向宽松,这与今年存在较大差异。从外部环境看,日本货币政策调整前,日元贬值引领的“亚洲货币战”尚未结束,即使有美国对华减免关税的光环存在,人民币还是存在贬值压力,叠加美元和美债收益率的“坚挺”,货币政策在回归常态的逻辑外,又多了一层内外博弈的色彩,如何在汇率贬值和稳定通胀预期之间平衡会给债市带来额外的不确定性。一旦“复苏+通胀+货币政策回归正常化+限制输入性通胀”的逻辑形成,债市杠杆的去化会加速债市调整。对于国内权益市场来说,通胀叙事下长端美债收益率向下拐点延期,国内债市面临调整,叠加日本央行“灰犀牛”的风险,我们对第三季度成长股的表现较市场会更趋谨慎,尤其是部分第二季度估值恢复迅速、成交火热的板块,需要控制风险。风险提示:海外货币政策收紧下外需回落,国内疫情扩散超市场预期;欧美第三季度加速进入深度衰退,欧美央行被迫提前转向,长端债券收益率提前回落,日本YCC政策压力减小;OPEC下半年超预期大幅增产、俄乌冲突达成共识,原油供给大幅改善导致油价下跌,全球通胀压力缓和。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EWJ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4957,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9046629861,"gmtCreate":1656341737553,"gmtModify":1676535809694,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"y","listText":"y","text":"y","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9046629861","repostId":"1108443730","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108443730","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1656340656,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1108443730?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-27 22:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The crisis is still fermenting! Currency Circle Hedge Fund Giants Come to the Verge of Default","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108443730","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"随着偿还6.7亿美元的最后期限临近,处于危机中心的币圈对冲基金正面临违约风险。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>Currency circle hedge funds at the center of the crisis are at risk of default as the deadline to repay $670 million approaches.</p><p>On Monday, crypto-focused hedge fund Three Arrows Capital must meet today's deadline to repay more than $670 million in loans to Digital asset broker Voyager Digital or face default. This could have knock-on effects across the digital asset market.</p><p>Three Arrows Capital is known as one of the most prominent cryptocurrency hedge funds, known for its highly leveraged bets. But in recent weeks, the hedge fund is facing potential liquidity and solvency issues as terraUSD and luna collapsed, loans were called on margin, and crypto markets tumbled. A \"Lehman crisis\" is fermenting in the currency circle.</p><p><b>Voyager Digital said last week that it had lent 15,250 Bitcoin and $350 million in stablecoin USDC to Three Arrows Capital. At Monday's prices, loans totaled more than $675 million. Voyager asked Three Arrows Capital to repay $25 million by June 24 and pay off the entire outstanding loan by June 27.</b></p><p>The price of cryptocurrencies continues to be under pressure. On Monday, Bitcoin hovered around $21,000, down about 53% year-to-date; Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has hinted at further rate hike to control severe inflation. Inflation has taken riskier assets out of steam to move higher.</p><p>Voyager said last week that neither payment had been repaid, adding that it could issue a notice of default if Three Arrows Capital did not repay the money.<b>Voyager said it is \"intending to seek compensation from Three Arrows Capital\" and is discussing \"available legal remedies\" with its advisers.</b></p><p>Three Arrows Capital, as one of the largest, cryptocurrency-focused hedge funds, has borrowed a lot of money from different companies and invested in many different digital asset projects.<b>This has raised fears of further contagion across the industry.</b></p><p>Speaking to the media, Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, said:</p><p>The problem is that their (Three Arrows Capital) asset values have also fallen dramatically with the market, so overall, that's not a good sign. What remains to be seen is whether there are still large, remaining players holding exposure to these products, which could lead to further \"contagion\". Some crypto companies are already facing a liquidity crisis due to the market downturn. This month, lender Celsius suspended withdrawals from customers, citing \"extreme market conditions\". Babel Finance, another cryptocurrency lender, said this month it was \"under unusual liquidity pressures\" and halted withdrawals.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The crisis is still fermenting! Currency Circle Hedge Fund Giants Come to the Verge of Default</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe crisis is still fermenting! Currency Circle Hedge Fund Giants Come to the Verge of Default\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-06-27 22:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Author: Han Xuyang</p><p>Currency circle hedge funds at the center of the crisis are at risk of default as the deadline to repay $670 million approaches.</p><p>On Monday, crypto-focused hedge fund Three Arrows Capital must meet today's deadline to repay more than $670 million in loans to Digital asset broker Voyager Digital or face default. This could have knock-on effects across the digital asset market.</p><p>Three Arrows Capital is known as one of the most prominent cryptocurrency hedge funds, known for its highly leveraged bets. But in recent weeks, the hedge fund is facing potential liquidity and solvency issues as terraUSD and luna collapsed, loans were called on margin, and crypto markets tumbled. A \"Lehman crisis\" is fermenting in the currency circle.</p><p><b>Voyager Digital said last week that it had lent 15,250 Bitcoin and $350 million in stablecoin USDC to Three Arrows Capital. At Monday's prices, loans totaled more than $675 million. Voyager asked Three Arrows Capital to repay $25 million by June 24 and pay off the entire outstanding loan by June 27.</b></p><p>The price of cryptocurrencies continues to be under pressure. On Monday, Bitcoin hovered around $21,000, down about 53% year-to-date; Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has hinted at further rate hike to control severe inflation. Inflation has taken riskier assets out of steam to move higher.</p><p>Voyager said last week that neither payment had been repaid, adding that it could issue a notice of default if Three Arrows Capital did not repay the money.<b>Voyager said it is \"intending to seek compensation from Three Arrows Capital\" and is discussing \"available legal remedies\" with its advisers.</b></p><p>Three Arrows Capital, as one of the largest, cryptocurrency-focused hedge funds, has borrowed a lot of money from different companies and invested in many different digital asset projects.<b>This has raised fears of further contagion across the industry.</b></p><p>Speaking to the media, Vijay Ayyar, vice president of corporate development and international at cryptocurrency exchange Luno, said:</p><p>The problem is that their (Three Arrows Capital) asset values have also fallen dramatically with the market, so overall, that's not a good sign. What remains to be seen is whether there are still large, remaining players holding exposure to these products, which could lead to further \"contagion\". Some crypto companies are already facing a liquidity crisis due to the market downturn. This month, lender Celsius suspended withdrawals from customers, citing \"extreme market conditions\". Babel Finance, another cryptocurrency lender, said this month it was \"under unusual liquidity pressures\" and halted withdrawals.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663150\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/683b0ebafc925391c935f27da1a18832","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3663150","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1108443730","content_text":"作者:韩旭阳随着偿还6.7亿美元的最后期限临近,处于危机中心的币圈对冲基金正面临违约风险。周一,专注于加密货币的对冲基金三箭资本(Three Arrows Capital)必须在今日这最后期限前偿还对数字资产经纪公司 Voyager Digital 超过6.7亿美元的贷款,否则将面临违约。这可能会对整个数字资产市场产生连锁反应。三箭资本被称为最著名的加密货币对冲基金之一,以其高杠杆押注而闻名。但最近几周,随着 terraUSD 和 luna 崩溃、贷款被追缴保证金以及加密货币市场暴跌,这家对冲基金正面临着潜在的流动性和偿付能力问题。一场“雷曼危机”正在币圈不断发酵。Voyager Digital上周表示,它已向三箭资本借出15250个比特币和3.5亿美元的稳定币USDC。按周一的价格计算,贷款总额超过6.75亿美元。Voyager 要求三箭资本在6月24日前偿还2500万美元,并在6月27日前还清全部未偿还贷款。加密货币的价格持续承压。周一,比特币在21000美元附近徘徊,今年以来下跌了约53%;与此同时,美联储已暗示将进一步加息,以控制严重的通胀。通胀已令风险较高的资产失去走高的动力。Voyager 上周表示,这两笔款项都没有偿还,并补充说,如果三箭资本不偿还这笔钱,它可能会发出违约通知。Voyager 表示,它正“打算从三箭资本寻求赔偿”,并正在与其顾问讨论“可用的法律补救措施”。三箭资本作为规模最大的、专注于加密货币的对冲基金之一,从不同的公司借入了大量资金,并投资于许多不同的数字资产项目。这引发了对整个行业进一步蔓延的担忧。加密货币交易所 Luno 的企业发展和国际副总裁Vijay Ayyar在接受媒体采访时表示:问题是他们(三箭资本)的资产价值也随着市场大幅下跌,所以总的来说,这不是一个好迹象。有待观察的是,是否还有大型、剩余的参与者持有对这些产品的敞口,这可能导致进一步的“传染”。由于市场低迷,一些加密公司已经面临流动性危机。本月,贷款公司 Celsius 以“极端的市场条件”为由,暂停了客户的提款。另一家加密货币贷款公司 Babel Finance 本月表示,它“面临不同寻常的流动性压力”,并停止了提款。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043888904,"gmtCreate":1655905437808,"gmtModify":1676535729148,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"k","listText":"k","text":"k","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043888904","repostId":"1123729187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123729187","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655904821,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123729187?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-22 21:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike pace.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123729187","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"鲍威尔表示,美国经济非常强劲,能够应对更紧缩的政策;美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%;继续加息是合适的,决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示,最新的通胀指标表明,美联储需要加快加息步伐。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高,需要降低。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Powell stated that the U.S. economy is very strong and can cope with tighter policies; The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to 2%; It is appropriate to continue the rate hike, and decisions will be made at each meeting. Powell stated that the latest inflation indicators suggest the Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike. On Wednesday, June 22, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the semi-annual monetary policy report.</p><p>POWELL: Continued rate hike is appropriate. The speed of rate hike depends on future data. The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to restoring the inflation rate to 2%. The U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies. The Federal Reserve will continue to communicate its ideas as clearly as possible. Inflation must be reduced to maintain a strong job market. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly,\" reflecting actions taken to date and anticipated actions.</p><p>Available data for May suggests that core inflation in April is likely to remain at an annualized 4.9% or decline slightly. In the face of a rapidly changing economic environment, our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so. Labor demand is “very strong,” while labor supply remains weak, with the labor force participation rate barely changing since January. Business fixed asset investment growth appears to be slowing, and the housing market appears to be weakening in part due to rising mortgage rates. The rate of economic growth depends on future data. The Federal Reserve needs to react flexibly to the data.</p><p>Powell stated that recent data shows real GDP rose in the current quarter, and consumer spending remained strong. Data from May suggests that core inflation is likely to remain at 4.9% annually or slow slightly. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly,\" reflecting actions taken so far and anticipated actions. Faced with a rapidly changing economic environment, \"our policies have been adapting and will continue to do so.\" Inflation has clearly exceeded expectations, and more unexpected events may occur in the future. The Federal Reserve needs to be flexible in responding to upcoming data releases and the ever-changing outlook.</p><p>POWELL: A series of additional rate hike has been digested by the market, which is appropriate.<span style=\"color:rgba(245,32,16,1);\"><b>The latest inflation indicators suggest that we need to accelerate the pace of rate hike.</b></span><b>。</b>We fully understand the inflation problem and are actively addressing it. Price stability is the cornerstone of economic development. We must restore price stability, and we will do so. The market's feedback on our rate hike has been quite positive. We will see interest rates continue to rise rapidly. We are strongly committed to reducing inflation, and we need to do so to return to the labor market we all want.</p><p>Powell: The U.S. economy is very competitive, but some industries are less competitive. We have never used rules on a large scale to formulate policies in real time. The end of the year will be close to the level required by the Taylor Rule. Note: The Taylor rule is one of the commonly used simple monetary policy rules. It was developed by John Taylor of Stanford University in 1993 based on the actual experience of U.S. monetary policy and is a rule for short-term interest rate adjustments. Taylor believes that to maintain a stable real short-term interest rate and a neutral policy stance, the nominal interest rate should be raised (lowered) when the output gap is positive (negative) and the inflation gap exceeds (below) the target.</p><p>Powell: Price inflation is a macroeconomic problem. The Federal Reserve is truly powerless to control oil prices; this is not its assessment of competition in the oil industry.</p><p><b>Related Reading</b></p><p><b>One article to understand the details of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent major testimony</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told members of Congress on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve is determined to reduce inflation and has the ability to do so. He acknowledged that the current inflation rate in the United States is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>\"At the Federal Reserve, we understand the difficulties caused by high inflation. We are firmly committed to reducing inflation, and we are taking swift action,\" Powell said in a speech to the Senate Banking Committee. \"We have both the tools we need and the determination to restore price stability on behalf of American households and businesses.\"</p><p>While expressing his determination to combat inflation, Powell stated that the overall economic situation is favorable, the job market is strong, and demand remains high. However, he acknowledged that inflation is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>\"In the coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is declining, consistent with a return to 2%,\" Powell said. \"We expect the current rate hike to be appropriate; the pace of these changes will continue to depend on newly released data and the evolving economic outlook.\"</p><p>His remarks highlight the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Currently, the Federal Reserve is rate hike at its fastest pace since the 1980s to slow economic growth and reduce inflation.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's benchmark Federal Funds rate is currently between 1.5% and 1.75%, a historic low, but remains at levels seen in early 2020, when the pandemic led Fed officials to cut interest rates to near zero. They kept interest rates near zero until March of this year.</p><p>The latest forecasts released last week by Federal Reserve officials indicate that Federal Funds rate will be raised to at least 3% this year, with most expected to rise to the 3.25%-3.5% range by December. This will be 1 percentage point higher than the highest level reached in 2018 after the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Powell said that financial conditions \"have now clearly tightened\" as borrowing costs began to rise last fall in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's rate hike this year.</p><p>Federal Funds rate is the overnight interest rate for interbank lending, which affects borrowing costs across the economy, including interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and corporate loans. The American Mortgage Bankers Association announced on Wednesday that the average interest rate on 30-year fixed mortgages rose to 5.98% last week from 5.65% last week, the highest level since 2008. This is the largest one-week increase in mortgage rates since 2009.</p><p>Powell's testimony did not directly address the difficult trade-offs the Federal Reserve may face next year, especially if the Fed's policy measures weaken the job market without convincingly reducing inflation.</p><p>At a press conference last week, Powell said that if energy and commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks are not alleviated soon, the Federal Reserve will find it increasingly difficult to avoid a recession. The Federal Reserve is seeking to achieve a so-called soft landing by cooling economic growth to a sufficiently low level of inflation without causing an economic downturn.</p><p>He pointed out that some uncertainties have exacerbated inflationary pressures. Powell's speech was part of the semi-annual report on monetary policy authorized by Congress.</p><p>This is a particularly delicate moment for Federal Reserve policy. Over the past three meetings, the Federal Reserve has accumulated 150 basis points (1.5 percentage points) of rate hike to address annual inflation, which is growing at its fastest pace in more than 40 years.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike pace.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike pace.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-22 21:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Powell stated that the U.S. economy is very strong and can cope with tighter policies; The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to 2%; It is appropriate to continue the rate hike, and decisions will be made at each meeting. Powell stated that the latest inflation indicators suggest the Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike. On Wednesday, June 22, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the semi-annual monetary policy report.</p><p>POWELL: Continued rate hike is appropriate. The speed of rate hike depends on future data. The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to restoring the inflation rate to 2%. The U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies. The Federal Reserve will continue to communicate its ideas as clearly as possible. Inflation must be reduced to maintain a strong job market. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly,\" reflecting actions taken to date and anticipated actions.</p><p>Available data for May suggests that core inflation in April is likely to remain at an annualized 4.9% or decline slightly. In the face of a rapidly changing economic environment, our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so. Labor demand is “very strong,” while labor supply remains weak, with the labor force participation rate barely changing since January. Business fixed asset investment growth appears to be slowing, and the housing market appears to be weakening in part due to rising mortgage rates. The rate of economic growth depends on future data. The Federal Reserve needs to react flexibly to the data.</p><p>Powell stated that recent data shows real GDP rose in the current quarter, and consumer spending remained strong. Data from May suggests that core inflation is likely to remain at 4.9% annually or slow slightly. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly,\" reflecting actions taken so far and anticipated actions. Faced with a rapidly changing economic environment, \"our policies have been adapting and will continue to do so.\" Inflation has clearly exceeded expectations, and more unexpected events may occur in the future. The Federal Reserve needs to be flexible in responding to upcoming data releases and the ever-changing outlook.</p><p>POWELL: A series of additional rate hike has been digested by the market, which is appropriate.<span style=\"color:rgba(245,32,16,1);\"><b>The latest inflation indicators suggest that we need to accelerate the pace of rate hike.</b></span><b>。</b>We fully understand the inflation problem and are actively addressing it. Price stability is the cornerstone of economic development. We must restore price stability, and we will do so. The market's feedback on our rate hike has been quite positive. We will see interest rates continue to rise rapidly. We are strongly committed to reducing inflation, and we need to do so to return to the labor market we all want.</p><p>Powell: The U.S. economy is very competitive, but some industries are less competitive. We have never used rules on a large scale to formulate policies in real time. The end of the year will be close to the level required by the Taylor Rule. Note: The Taylor rule is one of the commonly used simple monetary policy rules. It was developed by John Taylor of Stanford University in 1993 based on the actual experience of U.S. monetary policy and is a rule for short-term interest rate adjustments. Taylor believes that to maintain a stable real short-term interest rate and a neutral policy stance, the nominal interest rate should be raised (lowered) when the output gap is positive (negative) and the inflation gap exceeds (below) the target.</p><p>Powell: Price inflation is a macroeconomic problem. The Federal Reserve is truly powerless to control oil prices; this is not its assessment of competition in the oil industry.</p><p><b>Related Reading</b></p><p><b>One article to understand the details of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent major testimony</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told members of Congress on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve is determined to reduce inflation and has the ability to do so. He acknowledged that the current inflation rate in the United States is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>\"At the Federal Reserve, we understand the difficulties caused by high inflation. We are firmly committed to reducing inflation, and we are taking swift action,\" Powell said in a speech to the Senate Banking Committee. \"We have both the tools we need and the determination to restore price stability on behalf of American households and businesses.\"</p><p>While expressing his determination to combat inflation, Powell stated that the overall economic situation is favorable, the job market is strong, and demand remains high. However, he acknowledged that inflation is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>\"In the coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is declining, consistent with a return to 2%,\" Powell said. \"We expect the current rate hike to be appropriate; the pace of these changes will continue to depend on newly released data and the evolving economic outlook.\"</p><p>His remarks highlight the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Currently, the Federal Reserve is rate hike at its fastest pace since the 1980s to slow economic growth and reduce inflation.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's benchmark Federal Funds rate is currently between 1.5% and 1.75%, a historic low, but remains at levels seen in early 2020, when the pandemic led Fed officials to cut interest rates to near zero. They kept interest rates near zero until March of this year.</p><p>The latest forecasts released last week by Federal Reserve officials indicate that Federal Funds rate will be raised to at least 3% this year, with most expected to rise to the 3.25%-3.5% range by December. This will be 1 percentage point higher than the highest level reached in 2018 after the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Powell said that financial conditions \"have now clearly tightened\" as borrowing costs began to rise last fall in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's rate hike this year.</p><p>Federal Funds rate is the overnight interest rate for interbank lending, which affects borrowing costs across the economy, including interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and corporate loans. The American Mortgage Bankers Association announced on Wednesday that the average interest rate on 30-year fixed mortgages rose to 5.98% last week from 5.65% last week, the highest level since 2008. This is the largest one-week increase in mortgage rates since 2009.</p><p>Powell's testimony did not directly address the difficult trade-offs the Federal Reserve may face next year, especially if the Fed's policy measures weaken the job market without convincingly reducing inflation.</p><p>At a press conference last week, Powell said that if energy and commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks are not alleviated soon, the Federal Reserve will find it increasingly difficult to avoid a recession. The Federal Reserve is seeking to achieve a so-called soft landing by cooling economic growth to a sufficiently low level of inflation without causing an economic downturn.</p><p>He pointed out that some uncertainties have exacerbated inflationary pressures. Powell's speech was part of the semi-annual report on monetary policy authorized by Congress.</p><p>This is a particularly delicate moment for Federal Reserve policy. Over the past three meetings, the Federal Reserve has accumulated 150 basis points (1.5 percentage points) of rate hike to address annual inflation, which is growing at its fastest pace in more than 40 years.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123729187","content_text":"鲍威尔表示,美国经济非常强劲,能够应对更紧缩的政策;美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%;继续加息是合适的,决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示,最新的通胀指标表明,美联储需要加快加息步伐。6月22日,美东时间周三上午9点30分,美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会上就半年度货币政策报告做证词陈述。鲍威尔:持续加息是适当的。加息的速度取决于未来的数据。美联储坚决承诺将通胀率恢复到2%。美国经济非常强劲,可以应对更紧缩的政策。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。必须降低通胀,才能维持强劲的就业市场。金融状况“显著”收紧,反映了迄今为止采取的行动和预期的行动。5月份的可用数据显示,4月份的核心通货膨胀率可能保持在年化4.9%的水平,或略有下降。面对快速变化的经济环境,我们的政策一直在调整,并将继续这样做。劳动力需求“非常强劲”,而劳动力供应仍然低迷,自1月份以来,劳动力参与率几乎没有变化。企业固定资产投资增长似乎正在放缓,住房市场似乎在一定程度上由于抵押贷款利率上升而走软。经济增长速度取决于未来的数据。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。鲍威尔表示,最近的数据显示实质GDP在当前季度上升,消费者支出保持强劲;5月份所得数据显示,核心通胀年率可能保持在4.9%或略有放缓。金融状况已经“大幅”收紧,反映了到目前为止采取的行动和预期的行动。面对快速变化的经济环境,“我们的政策一直在调整适应,而且将继续如此”。通胀明显地超出预期,未来可能会有更多意外发生,美联储需灵活应对即将公布的数据和不断变化的前景。鲍威尔:一连串额外的加息已被市场消化,这是合适的。最新的通胀指标表明,我们需要加快加息步伐。我们完全理解通胀问题,正在积极应对通胀。价格稳定是经济发展的基石。我们必须恢复价格稳定,而且我们将会做到。市场对我们加息的反馈相当不错。我们将看到利率继续快速上升。我们坚决致力于降低通货膨胀,需要这样做才能回到我们都想要的劳动力市场。鲍威尔:美国经济的竞争力很强,但也有些行业的竞争力较弱。我们从来没有在大范围内使用规则来实时制定政策。年底将接近泰勒规则所要求的水平。注:泰勒规则是常用的简单货币政策规则之一,由斯坦福大学的约翰.泰勒于1993年根据美国货币政策的实际经验而确定的一种短期利率调整的规则。泰勒认为,保持实际短期利率稳定和中性政策立场,当产出缺口为正(负)和通胀缺口超过(低于)目标值时,应提高(降低)名义利率。鲍威尔:价格通胀是一个宏观经济问题。美联储对油价真的无能为力,这不是美联储对石油行业竞争的判断。相关阅读一文读懂美联储主席鲍威尔刚发表重磅证词细节美联储主席鲍威尔星期三对国会议员说,美联储决心降低通货膨胀,并且有能力做到这一点。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高,需要降低。「在美联储里面,我们理解高通胀造成的困难。我们坚决致力于降低通胀,我们正在迅速采取行动,」鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会(Senate Banking Committee)发表讲话时表示。「我们既有我们需要的工具,也有代表美国家庭和企业恢复物价稳定所需的决心。」鲍威尔在表达对通货膨胀的决心的同时表示,经济形势总体有利,就业市场强劲,需求持续高企。然而,他承认,通货膨胀率过高,需要降低。鲍威尔说:「在未来几个月里,我们将寻找令人信服的证据,表明通胀正在下降,与通胀回到2%相符。」「我们预计,目前的加息将是适当的;这些变化的速度将继续取决于新出炉的数据和不断变化的经济前景。」他的言论突显了美联储面临的挑战。目前,美联储正以上世纪80年代以来最快的速度加息,以减缓经济增长,降低通胀。美联储的基准联邦基金利率目前在1.5%至1.75%之间,处于历史低位,但仍维持在2020年初的水平,当时疫情导致美联储官员将利率下调至接近于零的水平。他们将利率维持在接近零的水平直到今年3月。美联储官员们上周公布的最新预测显示,今年将把联邦基金利率至少提高到3%,其中大多数预计到12月将升至3.25% - 3.5%的区间。这将比2018年2008年金融危机后的最高水平高出1个百分点。鲍威尔说,由于预期美联储将在今年加息,借款成本从去年秋天开始上升,金融状况「现在已经明显收紧」。联邦基金利率是银行间贷款的隔夜利率,它影响着整个经济的借贷成本,包括抵押贷款、信用卡和企业贷款的利率。美国抵押贷款银行家协会周三公布,上周30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率从上周的5.65%升至5.98%,为2008年以来的最高水平。这是自2009年以来抵押贷款利率最大的一周涨幅。鲍威尔的证词并没有直接提到美联储明年可能面临的艰难权衡,尤其是如果美联储的政策措施削弱了就业市场,但又没有以令人信服的方式降低通胀。鲍威尔在上周的新闻发布会上说,如果能源和大宗商品价格以及供应链瓶颈问题不能很快缓解,美联储将越来越难以避免经济衰退。美联储正寻求通过给经济增长降温,使其足够低的通胀水平,同时又不会导致经济下滑,从而实现所谓的软着陆。他指出,一些不确定性因素加剧了通胀压力。鲍威尔的讲话是国会授权的货币政策半年度报告的一部分。对于美联储的政策来说,这是一个特别微妙的时刻。在过去的3次会议中,美联储已累计加息150个基点(即1.5个百分点),以应对正以40多年来最快速度增长的年度通胀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9043881707,"gmtCreate":1655905431809,"gmtModify":1676535729038,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"o","listText":"o","text":"o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9043881707","repostId":"1123729187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123729187","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655904821,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123729187?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-22 21:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike pace.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123729187","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"鲍威尔表示,美国经济非常强劲,能够应对更紧缩的政策;美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%;继续加息是合适的,决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示,最新的通胀指标表明,美联储需要加快加息步伐。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高,需要降低。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Powell stated that the U.S. economy is very strong and can cope with tighter policies; The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to 2%; It is appropriate to continue the rate hike, and decisions will be made at each meeting. Powell stated that the latest inflation indicators suggest the Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike. On Wednesday, June 22, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the semi-annual monetary policy report.</p><p>POWELL: Continued rate hike is appropriate. The speed of rate hike depends on future data. The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to restoring the inflation rate to 2%. The U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies. The Federal Reserve will continue to communicate its ideas as clearly as possible. Inflation must be reduced to maintain a strong job market. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly,\" reflecting actions taken to date and anticipated actions.</p><p>Available data for May suggests that core inflation in April is likely to remain at an annualized 4.9% or decline slightly. In the face of a rapidly changing economic environment, our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so. Labor demand is “very strong,” while labor supply remains weak, with the labor force participation rate barely changing since January. Business fixed asset investment growth appears to be slowing, and the housing market appears to be weakening in part due to rising mortgage rates. The rate of economic growth depends on future data. The Federal Reserve needs to react flexibly to the data.</p><p>Powell stated that recent data shows real GDP rose in the current quarter, and consumer spending remained strong. Data from May suggests that core inflation is likely to remain at 4.9% annually or slow slightly. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly,\" reflecting actions taken so far and anticipated actions. Faced with a rapidly changing economic environment, \"our policies have been adapting and will continue to do so.\" Inflation has clearly exceeded expectations, and more unexpected events may occur in the future. The Federal Reserve needs to be flexible in responding to upcoming data releases and the ever-changing outlook.</p><p>POWELL: A series of additional rate hike has been digested by the market, which is appropriate.<span style=\"color:rgba(245,32,16,1);\"><b>The latest inflation indicators suggest that we need to accelerate the pace of rate hike.</b></span><b>。</b>We fully understand the inflation problem and are actively addressing it. Price stability is the cornerstone of economic development. We must restore price stability, and we will do so. The market's feedback on our rate hike has been quite positive. We will see interest rates continue to rise rapidly. We are strongly committed to reducing inflation, and we need to do so to return to the labor market we all want.</p><p>Powell: The U.S. economy is very competitive, but some industries are less competitive. We have never used rules on a large scale to formulate policies in real time. The end of the year will be close to the level required by the Taylor Rule. Note: The Taylor rule is one of the commonly used simple monetary policy rules. It was developed by John Taylor of Stanford University in 1993 based on the actual experience of U.S. monetary policy and is a rule for short-term interest rate adjustments. Taylor believes that to maintain a stable real short-term interest rate and a neutral policy stance, the nominal interest rate should be raised (lowered) when the output gap is positive (negative) and the inflation gap exceeds (below) the target.</p><p>Powell: Price inflation is a macroeconomic problem. The Federal Reserve is truly powerless to control oil prices; this is not its assessment of competition in the oil industry.</p><p><b>Related Reading</b></p><p><b>One article to understand the details of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent major testimony</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told members of Congress on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve is determined to reduce inflation and has the ability to do so. He acknowledged that the current inflation rate in the United States is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>\"At the Federal Reserve, we understand the difficulties caused by high inflation. We are firmly committed to reducing inflation, and we are taking swift action,\" Powell said in a speech to the Senate Banking Committee. \"We have both the tools we need and the determination to restore price stability on behalf of American households and businesses.\"</p><p>While expressing his determination to combat inflation, Powell stated that the overall economic situation is favorable, the job market is strong, and demand remains high. However, he acknowledged that inflation is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>\"In the coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is declining, consistent with a return to 2%,\" Powell said. \"We expect the current rate hike to be appropriate; the pace of these changes will continue to depend on newly released data and the evolving economic outlook.\"</p><p>His remarks highlight the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Currently, the Federal Reserve is rate hike at its fastest pace since the 1980s to slow economic growth and reduce inflation.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's benchmark Federal Funds rate is currently between 1.5% and 1.75%, a historic low, but remains at levels seen in early 2020, when the pandemic led Fed officials to cut interest rates to near zero. They kept interest rates near zero until March of this year.</p><p>The latest forecasts released last week by Federal Reserve officials indicate that Federal Funds rate will be raised to at least 3% this year, with most expected to rise to the 3.25%-3.5% range by December. This will be 1 percentage point higher than the highest level reached in 2018 after the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Powell said that financial conditions \"have now clearly tightened\" as borrowing costs began to rise last fall in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's rate hike this year.</p><p>Federal Funds rate is the overnight interest rate for interbank lending, which affects borrowing costs across the economy, including interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and corporate loans. The American Mortgage Bankers Association announced on Wednesday that the average interest rate on 30-year fixed mortgages rose to 5.98% last week from 5.65% last week, the highest level since 2008. This is the largest one-week increase in mortgage rates since 2009.</p><p>Powell's testimony did not directly address the difficult trade-offs the Federal Reserve may face next year, especially if the Fed's policy measures weaken the job market without convincingly reducing inflation.</p><p>At a press conference last week, Powell said that if energy and commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks are not alleviated soon, the Federal Reserve will find it increasingly difficult to avoid a recession. The Federal Reserve is seeking to achieve a so-called soft landing by cooling economic growth to a sufficiently low level of inflation without causing an economic downturn.</p><p>He pointed out that some uncertainties have exacerbated inflationary pressures. Powell's speech was part of the semi-annual report on monetary policy authorized by Congress.</p><p>This is a particularly delicate moment for Federal Reserve policy. Over the past three meetings, the Federal Reserve has accumulated 150 basis points (1.5 percentage points) of rate hike to address annual inflation, which is growing at its fastest pace in more than 40 years.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike pace.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell: The U.S. economy is very strong! The Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike pace.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-22 21:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Powell stated that the U.S. economy is very strong and can cope with tighter policies; The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to bringing inflation back to 2%; It is appropriate to continue the rate hike, and decisions will be made at each meeting. Powell stated that the latest inflation indicators suggest the Federal Reserve needs to accelerate its rate hike. On Wednesday, June 22, at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee regarding the semi-annual monetary policy report.</p><p>POWELL: Continued rate hike is appropriate. The speed of rate hike depends on future data. The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to restoring the inflation rate to 2%. The U.S. economy is very strong and can handle tighter policies. The Federal Reserve will continue to communicate its ideas as clearly as possible. Inflation must be reduced to maintain a strong job market. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly,\" reflecting actions taken to date and anticipated actions.</p><p>Available data for May suggests that core inflation in April is likely to remain at an annualized 4.9% or decline slightly. In the face of a rapidly changing economic environment, our policies have been adjusting and will continue to do so. Labor demand is “very strong,” while labor supply remains weak, with the labor force participation rate barely changing since January. Business fixed asset investment growth appears to be slowing, and the housing market appears to be weakening in part due to rising mortgage rates. The rate of economic growth depends on future data. The Federal Reserve needs to react flexibly to the data.</p><p>Powell stated that recent data shows real GDP rose in the current quarter, and consumer spending remained strong. Data from May suggests that core inflation is likely to remain at 4.9% annually or slow slightly. Financial conditions have tightened \"significantly,\" reflecting actions taken so far and anticipated actions. Faced with a rapidly changing economic environment, \"our policies have been adapting and will continue to do so.\" Inflation has clearly exceeded expectations, and more unexpected events may occur in the future. The Federal Reserve needs to be flexible in responding to upcoming data releases and the ever-changing outlook.</p><p>POWELL: A series of additional rate hike has been digested by the market, which is appropriate.<span style=\"color:rgba(245,32,16,1);\"><b>The latest inflation indicators suggest that we need to accelerate the pace of rate hike.</b></span><b>。</b>We fully understand the inflation problem and are actively addressing it. Price stability is the cornerstone of economic development. We must restore price stability, and we will do so. The market's feedback on our rate hike has been quite positive. We will see interest rates continue to rise rapidly. We are strongly committed to reducing inflation, and we need to do so to return to the labor market we all want.</p><p>Powell: The U.S. economy is very competitive, but some industries are less competitive. We have never used rules on a large scale to formulate policies in real time. The end of the year will be close to the level required by the Taylor Rule. Note: The Taylor rule is one of the commonly used simple monetary policy rules. It was developed by John Taylor of Stanford University in 1993 based on the actual experience of U.S. monetary policy and is a rule for short-term interest rate adjustments. Taylor believes that to maintain a stable real short-term interest rate and a neutral policy stance, the nominal interest rate should be raised (lowered) when the output gap is positive (negative) and the inflation gap exceeds (below) the target.</p><p>Powell: Price inflation is a macroeconomic problem. The Federal Reserve is truly powerless to control oil prices; this is not its assessment of competition in the oil industry.</p><p><b>Related Reading</b></p><p><b>One article to understand the details of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent major testimony</b></p><p>Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told members of Congress on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve is determined to reduce inflation and has the ability to do so. He acknowledged that the current inflation rate in the United States is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>\"At the Federal Reserve, we understand the difficulties caused by high inflation. We are firmly committed to reducing inflation, and we are taking swift action,\" Powell said in a speech to the Senate Banking Committee. \"We have both the tools we need and the determination to restore price stability on behalf of American households and businesses.\"</p><p>While expressing his determination to combat inflation, Powell stated that the overall economic situation is favorable, the job market is strong, and demand remains high. However, he acknowledged that inflation is too high and needs to be reduced.</p><p>\"In the coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is declining, consistent with a return to 2%,\" Powell said. \"We expect the current rate hike to be appropriate; the pace of these changes will continue to depend on newly released data and the evolving economic outlook.\"</p><p>His remarks highlight the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Currently, the Federal Reserve is rate hike at its fastest pace since the 1980s to slow economic growth and reduce inflation.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's benchmark Federal Funds rate is currently between 1.5% and 1.75%, a historic low, but remains at levels seen in early 2020, when the pandemic led Fed officials to cut interest rates to near zero. They kept interest rates near zero until March of this year.</p><p>The latest forecasts released last week by Federal Reserve officials indicate that Federal Funds rate will be raised to at least 3% this year, with most expected to rise to the 3.25%-3.5% range by December. This will be 1 percentage point higher than the highest level reached in 2018 after the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p>Powell said that financial conditions \"have now clearly tightened\" as borrowing costs began to rise last fall in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's rate hike this year.</p><p>Federal Funds rate is the overnight interest rate for interbank lending, which affects borrowing costs across the economy, including interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and corporate loans. The American Mortgage Bankers Association announced on Wednesday that the average interest rate on 30-year fixed mortgages rose to 5.98% last week from 5.65% last week, the highest level since 2008. This is the largest one-week increase in mortgage rates since 2009.</p><p>Powell's testimony did not directly address the difficult trade-offs the Federal Reserve may face next year, especially if the Fed's policy measures weaken the job market without convincingly reducing inflation.</p><p>At a press conference last week, Powell said that if energy and commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks are not alleviated soon, the Federal Reserve will find it increasingly difficult to avoid a recession. The Federal Reserve is seeking to achieve a so-called soft landing by cooling economic growth to a sufficiently low level of inflation without causing an economic downturn.</p><p>He pointed out that some uncertainties have exacerbated inflationary pressures. Powell's speech was part of the semi-annual report on monetary policy authorized by Congress.</p><p>This is a particularly delicate moment for Federal Reserve policy. Over the past three meetings, the Federal Reserve has accumulated 150 basis points (1.5 percentage points) of rate hike to address annual inflation, which is growing at its fastest pace in more than 40 years.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123729187","content_text":"鲍威尔表示,美国经济非常强劲,能够应对更紧缩的政策;美联储坚定致力于让通胀率回到2%;继续加息是合适的,决定将逐次会议作出。鲍威尔表示,最新的通胀指标表明,美联储需要加快加息步伐。6月22日,美东时间周三上午9点30分,美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会上就半年度货币政策报告做证词陈述。鲍威尔:持续加息是适当的。加息的速度取决于未来的数据。美联储坚决承诺将通胀率恢复到2%。美国经济非常强劲,可以应对更紧缩的政策。美联储将继续尽可能清晰地传达其想法。必须降低通胀,才能维持强劲的就业市场。金融状况“显著”收紧,反映了迄今为止采取的行动和预期的行动。5月份的可用数据显示,4月份的核心通货膨胀率可能保持在年化4.9%的水平,或略有下降。面对快速变化的经济环境,我们的政策一直在调整,并将继续这样做。劳动力需求“非常强劲”,而劳动力供应仍然低迷,自1月份以来,劳动力参与率几乎没有变化。企业固定资产投资增长似乎正在放缓,住房市场似乎在一定程度上由于抵押贷款利率上升而走软。经济增长速度取决于未来的数据。美联储需要灵活地对数据做出反应。鲍威尔表示,最近的数据显示实质GDP在当前季度上升,消费者支出保持强劲;5月份所得数据显示,核心通胀年率可能保持在4.9%或略有放缓。金融状况已经“大幅”收紧,反映了到目前为止采取的行动和预期的行动。面对快速变化的经济环境,“我们的政策一直在调整适应,而且将继续如此”。通胀明显地超出预期,未来可能会有更多意外发生,美联储需灵活应对即将公布的数据和不断变化的前景。鲍威尔:一连串额外的加息已被市场消化,这是合适的。最新的通胀指标表明,我们需要加快加息步伐。我们完全理解通胀问题,正在积极应对通胀。价格稳定是经济发展的基石。我们必须恢复价格稳定,而且我们将会做到。市场对我们加息的反馈相当不错。我们将看到利率继续快速上升。我们坚决致力于降低通货膨胀,需要这样做才能回到我们都想要的劳动力市场。鲍威尔:美国经济的竞争力很强,但也有些行业的竞争力较弱。我们从来没有在大范围内使用规则来实时制定政策。年底将接近泰勒规则所要求的水平。注:泰勒规则是常用的简单货币政策规则之一,由斯坦福大学的约翰.泰勒于1993年根据美国货币政策的实际经验而确定的一种短期利率调整的规则。泰勒认为,保持实际短期利率稳定和中性政策立场,当产出缺口为正(负)和通胀缺口超过(低于)目标值时,应提高(降低)名义利率。鲍威尔:价格通胀是一个宏观经济问题。美联储对油价真的无能为力,这不是美联储对石油行业竞争的判断。相关阅读一文读懂美联储主席鲍威尔刚发表重磅证词细节美联储主席鲍威尔星期三对国会议员说,美联储决心降低通货膨胀,并且有能力做到这一点。他承认目前美国通货膨胀率过高,需要降低。「在美联储里面,我们理解高通胀造成的困难。我们坚决致力于降低通胀,我们正在迅速采取行动,」鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会(Senate Banking Committee)发表讲话时表示。「我们既有我们需要的工具,也有代表美国家庭和企业恢复物价稳定所需的决心。」鲍威尔在表达对通货膨胀的决心的同时表示,经济形势总体有利,就业市场强劲,需求持续高企。然而,他承认,通货膨胀率过高,需要降低。鲍威尔说:「在未来几个月里,我们将寻找令人信服的证据,表明通胀正在下降,与通胀回到2%相符。」「我们预计,目前的加息将是适当的;这些变化的速度将继续取决于新出炉的数据和不断变化的经济前景。」他的言论突显了美联储面临的挑战。目前,美联储正以上世纪80年代以来最快的速度加息,以减缓经济增长,降低通胀。美联储的基准联邦基金利率目前在1.5%至1.75%之间,处于历史低位,但仍维持在2020年初的水平,当时疫情导致美联储官员将利率下调至接近于零的水平。他们将利率维持在接近零的水平直到今年3月。美联储官员们上周公布的最新预测显示,今年将把联邦基金利率至少提高到3%,其中大多数预计到12月将升至3.25% - 3.5%的区间。这将比2018年2008年金融危机后的最高水平高出1个百分点。鲍威尔说,由于预期美联储将在今年加息,借款成本从去年秋天开始上升,金融状况「现在已经明显收紧」。联邦基金利率是银行间贷款的隔夜利率,它影响着整个经济的借贷成本,包括抵押贷款、信用卡和企业贷款的利率。美国抵押贷款银行家协会周三公布,上周30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率从上周的5.65%升至5.98%,为2008年以来的最高水平。这是自2009年以来抵押贷款利率最大的一周涨幅。鲍威尔的证词并没有直接提到美联储明年可能面临的艰难权衡,尤其是如果美联储的政策措施削弱了就业市场,但又没有以令人信服的方式降低通胀。鲍威尔在上周的新闻发布会上说,如果能源和大宗商品价格以及供应链瓶颈问题不能很快缓解,美联储将越来越难以避免经济衰退。美联储正寻求通过给经济增长降温,使其足够低的通胀水平,同时又不会导致经济下滑,从而实现所谓的软着陆。他指出,一些不确定性因素加剧了通胀压力。鲍威尔的讲话是国会授权的货币政策半年度报告的一部分。对于美联储的政策来说,这是一个特别微妙的时刻。在过去的3次会议中,美联储已累计加息150个基点(即1.5个百分点),以应对正以40多年来最快速度增长的年度通胀。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9057796109,"gmtCreate":1655563492601,"gmtModify":1676535662419,"author":{"id":"3575347610709013","authorId":"3575347610709013","name":"han妈","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc130c80435a1df7ae157dd6764e34e0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575347610709013","authorIdStr":"3575347610709013"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9057796109","repostId":"1130766759","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130766759","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1655260917,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130766759?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-06-15 10:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stock markets will be closed on June 20th due to Juneteenth, a US federal holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130766759","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这一节日是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p><b>U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, June 20.</b>Because June 19th (Sunday) is a federal holiday in the United States (Juneteenth). It's worth noting that this holiday is quite \"young,\" having only been legalized last year, making it the first in the United States since Martin Luther King Jr. Day in 1983.<b>The first newly added national statutory holiday.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29a163308823ba7a1941858fd5eec00\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wishing you success in your investment</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 20, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 21.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>On June 17, 2021, U.S. President Biden signed an executive order designating June 19 of each year as a national statutory holiday to commemorate the end of slavery in the United States. The holiday is named \"Juneteenth,\" a combination of June and Nineteenth. Chinese officials call this festival \"Juneteenth\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ea0fb2e3d74348973bae50742d5fef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Biden and \"Grandma Juneteenth\" Opal Lee</span></p><p>Perhaps precisely because Juneteenth is so \"young,\" at this time last year, the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) had a \"disagreement\" with the U.S. stock market over this holiday:<b>The SEC is on holiday, while the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are open as usual.</b>The SEC stated, \"Exchanges decide on their own operating status during federal holidays, and we understand that major markets operate during normal hours.\" The NYSE responded at the time that it would assess whether Juneteenth would be closed for the holidays in 2022.</p><p>It appears that such \"disagreements\" will not repeat themselves this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9fb37a410b40a0a3403a1cc8cb8e6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Reminder: US stock markets will be closed on June 20th due to Juneteenth, a US federal holiday.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nReminder: US stock markets will be closed on June 20th due to Juneteenth, a US federal holiday.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-06-15 10:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Dear Investors:</p><p><b>U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, June 20.</b>Because June 19th (Sunday) is a federal holiday in the United States (Juneteenth). It's worth noting that this holiday is quite \"young,\" having only been legalized last year, making it the first in the United States since Martin Luther King Jr. Day in 1983.<b>The first newly added national statutory holiday.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29a163308823ba7a1941858fd5eec00\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Wishing you success in your investment</p><p>Tiger Brokers</p><p><b>Market closure arrangement</b></p><p><b>US stocks</b></p><p>The market will be closed on Monday, June 20, and will reopen as usual on Tuesday, June 21.</p><p><b>Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, Singapore stock market, Australian market</b></p><p>Trade as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction</b></p><p>On June 17, 2021, U.S. President Biden signed an executive order designating June 19 of each year as a national statutory holiday to commemorate the end of slavery in the United States. The holiday is named \"Juneteenth,\" a combination of June and Nineteenth. Chinese officials call this festival \"Juneteenth\".</p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10ea0fb2e3d74348973bae50742d5fef\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"288\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Biden and \"Grandma Juneteenth\" Opal Lee</span></p><p>Perhaps precisely because Juneteenth is so \"young,\" at this time last year, the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) had a \"disagreement\" with the U.S. stock market over this holiday:<b>The SEC is on holiday, while the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq are open as usual.</b>The SEC stated, \"Exchanges decide on their own operating status during federal holidays, and we understand that major markets operate during normal hours.\" The NYSE responded at the time that it would assess whether Juneteenth would be closed for the holidays in 2022.</p><p>It appears that such \"disagreements\" will not repeat themselves this year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a9fb37a410b40a0a3403a1cc8cb8e6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3beebfa3e0137570abe14d50f470080d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130766759","content_text":"尊敬的投资者:美股将于6月20日(星期一)休市,因为6月19日(星期日)是美国的联邦假日(六月节)。值得一提的是,这一节日相当“年轻”,去年才被合法化,是美国自1983年的“马丁·路德·金日”以来新增的第一个全国法定节日。预祝投资顺利老虎证券休市安排美股6月20日(周一)休市,6月21日(周二)起照常开市。港股、A股、新加坡股市、澳大利亚市场照常交易。背景介绍2021年6月17日,美国总统拜登签署法令,将每年的6月19日定为全国法定节假日以纪念美国奴隶制的终结,节日名称为“Juneteenth”,该名称取自June(六月)和Nineteenth(十九)的组合。中国官方称这一节日为“六月节”。拜登与“六月节祖母”Opal Lee或许正是因为六月节非常“年轻”,去年的这个时候,美国SEC(证券交易委员会)还因为这个节日和美股市场产生了“分歧”:SEC放假,而纽交所和纳斯达克交易所却照常开市。SEC表示:“交易所自行决定联邦假期的运营状态,我们对各主要市场在正常时间内运营表示理解。”纽交所当时回应称,将评估2022年的六月节是否停业过节。目前看来这样的“分歧”今年不会重演了。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}