To The Moon
Home
News
TigerAI
Log In
Sign Up
RichWong
+Follow
Posts · 11
Posts · 11
Following · 0
Following · 0
Followers · 0
Followers · 0
RichWong
RichWong
·
2021-02-09
nice
The wildest market in forty years! This is the answer from Soros's "close comrades-in-arms".
“这是我见过的最狂野的市场!”近日,有“华尔街天才”之称的Stanley Druckenmiller,在与高盛对冲基金业务全球负责人Tony Pasquariello的一场精彩对话中,对眼下的市场情况
The wildest market in forty years! This is the answer from Soros's "close comrades-in-arms".
看
3.62K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
RichWong
RichWong
·
2021-02-06
Cool
Chip shortages spread to mobile phones, Apple says sales of high-end iPhones are limited.
周五,苹果(AAPL.US)最近表示,一些新款高端iPhone的销售受到零部件短缺的限制。此外,恩智浦(NXPI.US)和英飞凌(IFNNY.US)都表示,这些供应限制已不再局限于汽车行业。索尼(SN...
Chip shortages spread to mobile phones, Apple says sales of high-end iPhones are limited.
看
2.37K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
RichWong
RichWong
·
2021-02-06
?
$PayPal(PYPL)$
看
2.90K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
RichWong
RichWong
·
2021-02-05
✅
Lychee stocks surged nearly 60%, tripling this week.
周四,荔枝盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。 消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。 近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成
Lychee stocks surged nearly 60%, tripling this week.
看
2.83K
回复
Comment
点赞
Like
编组 21备份 2
Share
Report
Load more
No following yet
Most Discussed
{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3575549774871441","uuid":"3575549774871441","gmtCreate":1612456082113,"gmtModify":1612492730420,"name":"RichWong","pinyin":"richwong","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa59677b02974658b4d67103450b4e92","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":14,"tweetSize":11,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":2,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖(非转发)","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":"success","userBadges":[{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-4","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Tiger Star","description":"Join the tiger community for 2000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.07.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":null,"starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":383082498,"gmtCreate":1612807654114,"gmtModify":1704874572662,"author":{"id":"3575549774871441","authorId":"3575549774871441","name":"RichWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa59677b02974658b4d67103450b4e92","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575549774871441","idStr":"3575549774871441"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/383082498","repostId":"1141106433","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141106433","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612796496,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1141106433?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-08 23:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The wildest market in forty years! This is the answer from Soros's \"close comrades-in-arms\".","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141106433","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“这是我见过的最狂野的市场!”近日,有“华尔街天才”之称的Stanley Druckenmiller,在与高盛对冲基金业务全球负责人Tony Pasquariello的一场精彩对话中,对眼下的市场情况","content":"<p><b>\"This is the wildest market I've ever seen!\"</b></p><p>Recently, Stanley Druckenmiller, known as the \"Wall Street genius,\" spoke with...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>In a brilliant conversation, Tony Pasquariello, Global Head of Hedge Funds, offered the following description of the current market situation.</p><p>For decades, Druckenmiller has been considered one of the world's most successful macro hedge fund managers.<b>Over the past 30 years, he has achieved an average annual compound growth rate of 30% and maintained a record of zero negative returns in his investment career.</b></p><p>Druckenmiller was once a \"close comrade\" of Soros. In 1988, at the invitation of Soros, Druckenmiller officially joined Quantum Fund Company. In 1992, Druckenmiller accurately predicted that the exchange rate of the pound sterling against the German mark would fall. At the time, he helped Soros \"snipe the pound\" and won a great victory in the contest against the Bank of England.</p><p>In 2010, Druckenmiller suddenly announced his retirement, ending his 30-year \"military career\" in the financial arena. Since then, he has rarely appeared in public and rarely expressed his investment views publicly.</p><p>In this rare conversation with Goldman Sachs, he shared his latest views on macro investing, asset classes, and Bitcoin. Wall Street Insights excerpts some of the key points from the interview:</p><p><b>01. \"Strange Environment\"</b></p><p>Druckenmiller first introduced<b>The current investment environment was described with the adjective \"strange\".</b>:</p><p>What we experienced<b>The economic recession is five times the average since World War II</b>But it happens 25% of the time. Even stranger is that 11 million people lost their jobs that year, but thanks to massive policy support, our...<b>The increase in personal income was the largest in 20 years.</b>。 CARES Act<b>Added trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus. How big is this?</b>In the first three months of 2020, we<b>The increased deficit exceeds that of the past five recessions.</b>(1973, 1975, 1982, early 1990s, the bursting of the dot-com bubble, and the global financial crisis)<b>The sum of</b>。 The Federal Reserve bought more Treasury Bond in six weeks than it bought in Treasury Bond during the 10 years of Bernanke/Yellen's administration. Due to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, corporate borrowing had increased from $6 trillion to $10 trillion before the crisis, which almost always decreases during economic recessions. However, corporate borrowing increased by $400 billion this year. In contrast, corporate borrowing decreased by $500 billion during the global financial crisis. It is even more surprising to place American policy in a global context, Druckenmiller points out:</p><p>Since 2018, US M2 has grown by 25% relative to nominal GDP, which means liquidity has increased by 25%. In China, the ratio of M2 to nominal GDP is the same as it was three years ago. Therefore, China has not overdrawn anything from their future. We have a lot of liquidity injection, but frankly, very little investment, mainly through transfer payments and Federal Reserve stimulus. We did a terrible job of dealing with the virus, and China and the whole of Asia basically defeated the virus.<b>02. Short US Treasury bonds and US dollars, long commodities.</b></p><p>In the interview, Pasquariello asked what Druckenmiller would choose if he could only choose one asset that would offer the best opportunities next year.</p><p>Druckenmiller stated that this is not the way he plays games. He believes that the most important investment theme at present is inflation relative to the thinking of policymakers. But since policymakers' responses may vary depending on how well a vaccine works, it's best to have an investment matrix.</p><p>Druckenmiller revealed some of his holdings:</p><p>In order to cope with further inflation,<b>Shorting long-term US Treasury</b>。<b>Have a large position in the commodities sector</b>。 Because the longer the Federal Reserve tries to keep interest rates low, the more chances it has to win in the commodities sector.<b>Shorting the US dollar</b>。 Due to the contrast between US policy and Asian policy, I am \"very, very\" bearish on the US dollar.<b>03. Growth stocks face challenges, but large-cap tech stocks can still rise.</b></p><p>Pasquariello asked Druckenmiller about his views on stocks, especially technology stocks, including large tech stocks, cloud computing companies, and some small growth stocks.</p><p>Druckenmiller holds a cautious view on growth stocks, believing that, judging from valuations and the bond market situation,<b>Growth stocks will be in a very, very challenging environment over the next five years.</b>:</p><p>If the United States experiences 4-5% inflation in a few years and bond yields rise sharply, historically, growth stocks have been very negative relative to other stocks. On the other hand, the comparison with 2000 is absurd. The absurd reason is that we were hit by a double blow at the time: not only were we in the midst of a frenzy of high valuations, but our profits were also coming to an end, because the rapid growth of those companies was due to the internet itself under construction, which could no longer generate profits once the internet was completed.<b>Druckenmiller remains optimistic about established large-cap tech stocks.</b>:</p><p>In the past 2-3 months, in the field of technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>They have consistently performed poorly. But they are not overvalued, and if the Federal Reserve continues to push the limits in terms of friendliness, I am not worried about these stocks. In fact, they may continue to rise.<b>04. Asia has emerged from the pandemic and become a big winner.</b></p><p>Druckenmiller is very optimistic about the investment prospects in Asia, while also holding assets in China, Japan, and South Korea.</p><p>These regions have had a good start to the year. Druckenmiller points out that while the United States is desperately overdrawing its future, Asia has emerged from the pandemic and become a big winner:</p><p>In the field of technology, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>After surrendering, Asia gained access to contract manufacturing and memory.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>It is also leading in its field. I think Asia looks much better than the United States in the next five years because, to some extent, the United States will have to pay the price for productivity, higher wages, and a depreciating dollar.<b>In the long run, Asia will outperform the United States, especially in the foreign exchange market. China's net investment has just surpassed that of the United States this year</b>This is just the beginning of a trend, not the end.<b>05. I don't understand Bitcoin, but I still bought it.</b></p><p>Regarding the comeback of Bitcoin, Pasquariello naturally wouldn't miss Druckenmiller's opinion on it.</p><p>When asked whether Bitcoin is the mother of all asset bubbles or something more real and enduring, Druckenmiller replied that perhaps both.</p><p>Druckenmiller expressed his confusion about Bitcoin:</p><p>Bitcoin has been around for 13 years, especially among young millennials, who view it the same way I view gold. However, I doubt whether Bitcoin will become a store of value, because if it were a currency, it would have various problems, such as consuming a lot of energy and being highly volatile. Druckenmiller frankly admitted that he didn't understand Bitcoin and didn't really trust Bitcoin, but he did buy some, and after buying them, the prices rose significantly.</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The wildest market in forty years! This is the answer from Soros's \"close comrades-in-arms\".</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe wildest market in forty years! This is the answer from Soros's \"close comrades-in-arms\".\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 23:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>\"This is the wildest market I've ever seen!\"</b></p><p>Recently, Stanley Druckenmiller, known as the \"Wall Street genius,\" spoke with...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>In a brilliant conversation, Tony Pasquariello, Global Head of Hedge Funds, offered the following description of the current market situation.</p><p>For decades, Druckenmiller has been considered one of the world's most successful macro hedge fund managers.<b>Over the past 30 years, he has achieved an average annual compound growth rate of 30% and maintained a record of zero negative returns in his investment career.</b></p><p>Druckenmiller was once a \"close comrade\" of Soros. In 1988, at the invitation of Soros, Druckenmiller officially joined Quantum Fund Company. In 1992, Druckenmiller accurately predicted that the exchange rate of the pound sterling against the German mark would fall. At the time, he helped Soros \"snipe the pound\" and won a great victory in the contest against the Bank of England.</p><p>In 2010, Druckenmiller suddenly announced his retirement, ending his 30-year \"military career\" in the financial arena. Since then, he has rarely appeared in public and rarely expressed his investment views publicly.</p><p>In this rare conversation with Goldman Sachs, he shared his latest views on macro investing, asset classes, and Bitcoin. Wall Street Insights excerpts some of the key points from the interview:</p><p><b>01. \"Strange Environment\"</b></p><p>Druckenmiller first introduced<b>The current investment environment was described with the adjective \"strange\".</b>:</p><p>What we experienced<b>The economic recession is five times the average since World War II</b>But it happens 25% of the time. Even stranger is that 11 million people lost their jobs that year, but thanks to massive policy support, our...<b>The increase in personal income was the largest in 20 years.</b>。 CARES Act<b>Added trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus. How big is this?</b>In the first three months of 2020, we<b>The increased deficit exceeds that of the past five recessions.</b>(1973, 1975, 1982, early 1990s, the bursting of the dot-com bubble, and the global financial crisis)<b>The sum of</b>。 The Federal Reserve bought more Treasury Bond in six weeks than it bought in Treasury Bond during the 10 years of Bernanke/Yellen's administration. Due to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, corporate borrowing had increased from $6 trillion to $10 trillion before the crisis, which almost always decreases during economic recessions. However, corporate borrowing increased by $400 billion this year. In contrast, corporate borrowing decreased by $500 billion during the global financial crisis. It is even more surprising to place American policy in a global context, Druckenmiller points out:</p><p>Since 2018, US M2 has grown by 25% relative to nominal GDP, which means liquidity has increased by 25%. In China, the ratio of M2 to nominal GDP is the same as it was three years ago. Therefore, China has not overdrawn anything from their future. We have a lot of liquidity injection, but frankly, very little investment, mainly through transfer payments and Federal Reserve stimulus. We did a terrible job of dealing with the virus, and China and the whole of Asia basically defeated the virus.<b>02. Short US Treasury bonds and US dollars, long commodities.</b></p><p>In the interview, Pasquariello asked what Druckenmiller would choose if he could only choose one asset that would offer the best opportunities next year.</p><p>Druckenmiller stated that this is not the way he plays games. He believes that the most important investment theme at present is inflation relative to the thinking of policymakers. But since policymakers' responses may vary depending on how well a vaccine works, it's best to have an investment matrix.</p><p>Druckenmiller revealed some of his holdings:</p><p>In order to cope with further inflation,<b>Shorting long-term US Treasury</b>。<b>Have a large position in the commodities sector</b>。 Because the longer the Federal Reserve tries to keep interest rates low, the more chances it has to win in the commodities sector.<b>Shorting the US dollar</b>。 Due to the contrast between US policy and Asian policy, I am \"very, very\" bearish on the US dollar.<b>03. Growth stocks face challenges, but large-cap tech stocks can still rise.</b></p><p>Pasquariello asked Druckenmiller about his views on stocks, especially technology stocks, including large tech stocks, cloud computing companies, and some small growth stocks.</p><p>Druckenmiller holds a cautious view on growth stocks, believing that, judging from valuations and the bond market situation,<b>Growth stocks will be in a very, very challenging environment over the next five years.</b>:</p><p>If the United States experiences 4-5% inflation in a few years and bond yields rise sharply, historically, growth stocks have been very negative relative to other stocks. On the other hand, the comparison with 2000 is absurd. The absurd reason is that we were hit by a double blow at the time: not only were we in the midst of a frenzy of high valuations, but our profits were also coming to an end, because the rapid growth of those companies was due to the internet itself under construction, which could no longer generate profits once the internet was completed.<b>Druckenmiller remains optimistic about established large-cap tech stocks.</b>:</p><p>In the past 2-3 months, in the field of technology,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>They have consistently performed poorly. But they are not overvalued, and if the Federal Reserve continues to push the limits in terms of friendliness, I am not worried about these stocks. In fact, they may continue to rise.<b>04. Asia has emerged from the pandemic and become a big winner.</b></p><p>Druckenmiller is very optimistic about the investment prospects in Asia, while also holding assets in China, Japan, and South Korea.</p><p>These regions have had a good start to the year. Druckenmiller points out that while the United States is desperately overdrawing its future, Asia has emerged from the pandemic and become a big winner:</p><p>In the field of technology, with<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>After surrendering, Asia gained access to contract manufacturing and memory.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">Robot</a>It is also leading in its field. I think Asia looks much better than the United States in the next five years because, to some extent, the United States will have to pay the price for productivity, higher wages, and a depreciating dollar.<b>In the long run, Asia will outperform the United States, especially in the foreign exchange market. China's net investment has just surpassed that of the United States this year</b>This is just the beginning of a trend, not the end.<b>05. I don't understand Bitcoin, but I still bought it.</b></p><p>Regarding the comeback of Bitcoin, Pasquariello naturally wouldn't miss Druckenmiller's opinion on it.</p><p>When asked whether Bitcoin is the mother of all asset bubbles or something more real and enduring, Druckenmiller replied that perhaps both.</p><p>Druckenmiller expressed his confusion about Bitcoin:</p><p>Bitcoin has been around for 13 years, especially among young millennials, who view it the same way I view gold. However, I doubt whether Bitcoin will become a store of value, because if it were a currency, it would have various problems, such as consuming a lot of energy and being highly volatile. Druckenmiller frankly admitted that he didn't understand Bitcoin and didn't really trust Bitcoin, but he did buy some, and after buying them, the prices rose significantly.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/VvcsLNvJgK1tllcMnVBkTA\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/VvcsLNvJgK1tllcMnVBkTA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1141106433","content_text":"“这是我见过的最狂野的市场!”近日,有“华尔街天才”之称的Stanley Druckenmiller,在与高盛对冲基金业务全球负责人Tony Pasquariello的一场精彩对话中,对眼下的市场情况作出了如下表述。几十年来,Druckenmiller被认为是全球最成功的宏观对冲基金经理之一。30年里,他创造了年均复合增长率30%的业绩,并且保持着投资生涯无负收益年份的记录。Druckenmiller曾是索罗斯的“亲密战友”。1988年受索罗斯邀请,Druckenmiller正式进入量子基金公司。1992年,Druckenmiller准确预测英镑对德国马克汇率将下跌。当时他帮助索罗斯“狙击英镑”,在与英国央行的较量中大获全胜。2010年,Druckenmiller突然宣布退休,结束30年金融战场的“戎马生涯”,此后就鲜少露面,极少公开表态投资观点。而在这次与高盛的罕见对话中,分享了他关于宏观投资、大类资产、比特币的最新观点。华尔街见闻摘写了访谈中部分重点内容:01、“奇怪的环境”Druckenmiller首先介绍了眼下投资的大环境,并用了一个形容词——”奇怪”:我们所经历的 经济衰退是二战以来平均水平的5倍,但发生在25%的时间里。更奇怪的是,这一年里有1100万人失业,但由于大规模的政策支持,我们的 个人收入增幅为20年以来最大。CARES法案 增加了数万亿美元的财政刺激。这有多大?在2020年的三个月里,我们 增加的赤字超过了过去5次衰退(1973年、1975年、1982年、90年代初、互联网泡沫破裂和全球金融危机) 的总和。美联储在6周内购买的国债超过了伯南克/耶伦执政10年来购买的国债。由于美联储的货币政策,在危机爆发前,企业借款已经从6万亿美元增加到10万亿美元,而在经济衰退时,企业借款几乎总是会减少,但今年企业借款增加了4000亿美元。作为对比,全球金融危机期间企业借款减少了5000亿美元。把美国的政策放在全球背景下,更是令人吃惊,Druckenmiller指出:2018年以来,美国M2比名义GDP增长了25%,也就是流动性增加25%。在中国,M2与名义GDP之比与3年前持平。因此,中国没有从他们的未来那里透支任何东西,我们有大量的流动性投入,坦率地说,投资却很少,主要是转移支付和美联储刺激。我们对病毒做了可怕的处理,而中国和整个亚洲基本上都战胜了病毒。02、做空美债、美元,做多商品在访谈中,Pasquariello问及,如果只能选择一项明年能提供最好机会的资产,Druckenmiller会选什么?Druckenmiller表示,这不是他玩游戏的方式。他认为,目前最主要的投资主题是通胀相对于政策制定者的想法。但由于政策制定者的反应可能会根据疫苗效果的不同而有所不同,因此最好是有一个投资矩阵。Druckenmiller透露了他的部分持仓:为了应对通货再膨胀, 做空长期美债。在大宗商品领域拥有大量头寸。因为美联储试图压低利率的时间越长,在大宗商品领域的胜券就越多。做空美元。由于美国政策与亚洲政策的反差,所以“非常非常”看空美元。03、成长股面临挑战,大型科技股还能再涨Pasquariello问及Druckenmiller对股票的看法,尤其是对科技股的看法,包括大型科技股、云计算公司和一些小型成长股。对于成长股,Druckenmiller的看法较为谨慎,他认为,从估值和债券市场的情况来看,未来5年成长型股票将处于一个非常、非常充满挑战的环境中:如果美国几年后出现4-5%的通胀,债券收益率急剧上升,从历史上看,成长型股票相对于其他股票来说是非常负面的。另一方面,与2000年的比较是荒谬的。荒谬的原因,当时我们有一个双重打击,不仅处于高估值的狂热之中,而且收益也即将结束,因为那些公司当时快速增长都是由于在建互联网本身,随着互联网建设完成,就无法继续产生收益。对于那些已经发展成熟的大型科技股,Druckenmiller依然乐观:过去2-3个月里,在科技领域,亚马逊和微软一直表现不佳。但它们并没有被高估,如果美联储继续在友好方面挑战极限,我并不担心这些股票,事实上,它们可能会继续上涨。04、亚洲已经走出疫情,成为大赢家Druckenmiller十分看好亚洲投资前景,同时持有中国、日本和韩国资产。今年以来这些地区开局良好,Druckenmiller指出,在美国拼命透支未来的时候,亚洲已经走出疫情,成为大赢家:在科技领域,随着英特尔缴械投降,亚洲拥有了代工和内存,在机器人领域也领先。我认为未来5年亚洲看起来比美国好多了, 因为在某种程度上,美国必须为生产力,更高的工资,以及更贬值的美元付出代价。长期来看,亚洲的表现将优于美国,尤其是外汇市场。今年中国的净投资刚刚超过美国,这只是一种趋势的开始,而不是结束。05、看不懂比特币,但还是买了对于卷土重来的比特币,Pasquariello自然不会错过Druckenmiller对它的看法。当被问及,比特币是所有资产泡沫之母还是某种更真实更持久的东西时,Druckenmiller回答道,或许两者都是。Druckenmiller表达了他对比特币的困惑:比特币已经存在有13年了,尤其是年轻的千禧一代,看待它就如同我看待黄金的方式。但我怀疑比特币是否会成为一种价值储存手段,因为如果作为货币,它存在各种各样的问题,比如消耗大量能源,波动性大等。Druckenmiller坦诚地承认,他不明白比特币,也不是很相信比特币,但他确实也买了一些,而且买了以后,涨了很多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380755622,"gmtCreate":1612599583066,"gmtModify":1704873169051,"author":{"id":"3575549774871441","authorId":"3575549774871441","name":"RichWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa59677b02974658b4d67103450b4e92","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575549774871441","idStr":"3575549774871441"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Cool","listText":"Cool","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/380755622","repostId":"2109770369","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2109770369","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612568040,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2109770369?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-06 07:34","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Chip shortages spread to mobile phones, Apple says sales of high-end iPhones are limited.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2109770369","media":"智通财经网","summary":"周五,苹果(AAPL.US)最近表示,一些新款高端iPhone的销售受到零部件短缺的限制。此外,恩智浦(NXPI.US)和英飞凌(IFNNY.US)都表示,这些供应限制已不再局限于汽车行业。索尼(SN...","content":"<p><div>On Friday, Apple recently stated that sales of some new high-end iPhones are limited by component shortages. In addition, both NXP (NXPI.US) and Infineon (IFNNY.US) stated that these supply restrictions are no longer limited to the automotive industry. Sony (SNE.US) said Wednesday that the company may not be able to fully meet demand for its new game consoles in 2021 due to production bottlenecks. Strategy Analytics analyst Neil Mawston stated, \"Factory shutdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as shutdowns from tablets, laptops, and...\"</p><p><a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202102061805314362.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>","source":"stock_eastmoney","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chip shortages spread to mobile phones, Apple says sales of high-end iPhones are limited.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChip shortages spread to mobile phones, Apple says sales of high-end iPhones are limited.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-06 07:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>On Friday, Apple recently stated that sales of some new high-end iPhones are limited by component shortages. In addition, both NXP (NXPI.US) and Infineon (IFNNY.US) stated that these supply restrictions are no longer limited to the automotive industry. Sony (SNE.US) said Wednesday that the company may not be able to fully meet demand for its new game consoles in 2021 due to production bottlenecks. Strategy Analytics analyst Neil Mawston stated, \"Factory shutdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as shutdowns from tablets, laptops, and...\"</p><p><a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202102061805314362.html\">Web page link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202102061805314362.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a1a8c5698b6f32ee1637556a15bb35b","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","AA":"美国铝业","AAPL":"苹果","03086":"华夏纳指","09086":"华夏纳指-U"},"source_url":"http://finance.eastmoney.com/a/202102061805314362.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2109770369","content_text":"周五,苹果最近表示,一些新款高端iPhone的销售受到零部件短缺的限制。此外,恩智浦(NXPI.US)和英飞凌(IFNNY.US)都表示,这些供应限制已不再局限于汽车行业。索尼(SNE.US)周三表示,由于生产瓶颈,该公司可能无法在2021年完全满足其新款游戏机的需求。Strategy Analytics分析师Neil Mawston表示:“因新冠疫情导致的工厂停工,以及来自平板电脑、笔记本电脑和电动汽车的竞争,正在导致智能手机零部件供应出现多年来最艰难的状况。”Mawston估计,包括芯片组和显示屏在内的智能手机关键零部件的价格在过去三到六个月里上涨了15%之多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"03086":0.9,"09086":0.9,"AA":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":380593603,"gmtCreate":1612546764402,"gmtModify":1704872823831,"author":{"id":"3575549774871441","authorId":"3575549774871441","name":"RichWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa59677b02974658b4d67103450b4e92","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575549774871441","idStr":"3575549774871441"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>","listText":"?<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>","text":"?$PayPal(PYPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/380593603","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317551946,"gmtCreate":1612457180185,"gmtModify":1704871585643,"author":{"id":"3575549774871441","authorId":"3575549774871441","name":"RichWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa59677b02974658b4d67103450b4e92","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575549774871441","idStr":"3575549774871441"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"✅","listText":"✅","text":"✅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/317551946","repostId":"1197633592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197633592","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1612451567,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197633592?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-02-04 23:12","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Lychee stocks surged nearly 60%, tripling this week.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197633592","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周四,荔枝盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成","content":"<p>Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">lychee</a>The stock surged nearly 60% during trading, hitting a 52-week high, and has risen more than 310% this week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of news, Lizhi announced today that...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Pop Mart</a>A cooperation agreement has been reached to release the first branded podcast on Lizhi.</p><p>Clubhouse has recently become popular, becoming a unicorn valued at $1 billion in less than a year, which has once again brought the voice social networking sector into the spotlight. In the European and American markets, another product called \"Tiya\" also holds a considerable market share, with users in more than 200 countries and regions. Tiya's development team comes from Lizhi.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lychee stocks surged nearly 60%, tripling this week.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLychee stocks surged nearly 60%, tripling this week.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-02-04 23:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Thursday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">lychee</a>The stock surged nearly 60% during trading, hitting a 52-week high, and has risen more than 310% this week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb80bda1fe273ec9764a153cf514eca\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>In terms of news, Lizhi announced today that...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">Pop Mart</a>A cooperation agreement has been reached to release the first branded podcast on Lizhi.</p><p>Clubhouse has recently become popular, becoming a unicorn valued at $1 billion in less than a year, which has once again brought the voice social networking sector into the spotlight. In the European and American markets, another product called \"Tiya\" also holds a considerable market share, with users in more than 200 countries and regions. Tiya's development team comes from Lizhi.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0297cfccff0a8a073407a5bb08626","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197633592","content_text":"周四,荔枝盘中大涨近60%,股价刷新52周高位,本周已累涨逾310%。\n\n消息面上,荔枝今日宣布与泡泡玛特达成合作协议,将在荔枝上发布首个品牌播客。\n近日Clubhouse走红,在不到一年的时间里就成为估值达到10亿美元的独角兽,这让语音社交这一赛道再次被瞩目。在欧美市场,另一款名为“Tiya”的产品亦占有较为可观的市场份额,用户遍及超过200个国家和地区。Tiya的开发团队正是来自荔枝。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LIZI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}