To The Moon

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: The 90-day truce in the trade war slightly improved investor sentiment in Global Developed markets and Japan, shifting from bearish to negative. However, it did not prevent sentiment from deteriorating further in Australia, the UK, and the US, where it turned bearish from negative previously. Sentiment in China recovered from bearish to neutral due to strong market support from authorities and indications from the Trump administration that current tariffs would be significantly reduced soon. Sentiment in Asia ex-Japan, Global Developed markets ex-US, and Europe remained bearish, as the fate of the global economy still hinges on the US-China relationship. Trade War II: In his interview with Time magazine, Trump was asked about his str

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continues to be very weak, with bearish trends observed in seven out of the ten markets we monitor. Despite gold reaching a new historical high and a 90-day pause in the trade war, sentiment remained very negative in both Australia and the US during the holiday-shortened week. Meanwhile, sentiment in the UK ended neutral, albeit with a negative bias, as it has yet to draw Trump's ire. As he stated in his book – The Art of the Deal – Trump judges success solely on the level of chaos generated, rather than the actual result. But what investors are witnessing right now - the capital flight from US equities, US treasuries, and the USD (with the Dollar index dropping to a three-year low of 98.6). The surge in safe-haven

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment remains predominantly bearish across most markets, with the exception of Australia, as gold prices continue to rise, and the UK, where investor sentiment remains surprisingly neutral. Chinese investors have become bearish due to the escalating tariff war with the US, which has also negatively impacted sentiment among Global Emerging Market investors. The inconsistent trade policies from the Trump administration have further added to the confusion and uncertainty, causing many investors to head for the sidelines, selling off risky assets without purchasing safe ones. This is not a rebalancing. This is a de-risking. If you're a proponent of global or even just US economic growth, you wouldn't disrupt the global trade

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment remained very negative or bearish by the end of the week, consistent with the previous week. However, in the UK, sentiment improved from negative to neutral. Chinese markets were closed on Friday when the government announced retaliations against Trump's tariffs, but sentiment was already very negative by Thursday's close. This negativity is expected to turn bearish this week, likely dragging down the sentiment of Global Emerging Market investors as well. Last week, Liberation Day turned into Liquidation Day as the last bits of risk tolerance in investors that could bend no more finally snapped, sending them running for the exit. Following the tariff announcement, risk aversion has metastasized across global market

Investor sentiment was notably pessimistic as the Trump administration prepared for a week of significant announcements regarding 'reciprocal' tariffs. Investors were bearish in Asia ex-Japan, Global Developed and Global Developed ex-US markets, Europe, Japan, and the US. Additionally, sentiment was negative in Australia, Global Emerging Markets (nearly bearish), and the UK. Chinese investors, who had previously been optimistic due to anticipated stimulus measures, shifted to a neutral stance in light of the upcoming tariff news. According to Trump, "tariff" might be the most beautiful word in the English language, but for investors, it's quickly becoming an ugly one. Trump argues that tariffs are just tools for achieving MAGA goals, but like cigarettes, they can become addictive; like alc

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Last week, investor sentiment turned bearish across all markets we follow except China. Only Australian investors showed a slight recovery but still ended the week in negative territory. Meanwhile, sentiment among Chinese investors, which had been bullish since mid-December and fueled a 15% year-to-date rise in the market, has now declined to just positive as they continue to await details on the next wave of stimulus from authorities. Globally, Trump continues to be the elephant in every investment room that investors need to tiptoe around as they rush to steer their portfolios to safety ahead of next week’s tariffs announcement. Tariffs are coming. They might not make America great again, but Trump predicted them, named them, claim

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Over the past two weeks, investor sentiment sank, turning bearish in six out of the ten markets we monitor – the highest number since early August 2024. Sentiment also turned negative in Japan and Australia, while UK investors remained neutral, albeit with a negative bias. Only Chinese investors stayed positive, ending the week bullish on hopes for further stimulus from the authorities and the CCP's renewed interest in the small-cap private tech sector (excluding small caps, sentiment is neutral). The supply and demand balance for risk is now very negative in seven markets, creating conditions ripe for an emotional overreaction to any unforeseen denial of investors’ expectations this week. Fundamentally not much has changed: inflatio

Total volume on Eurex up 12 percent in February compared to February 2024. Equity derivatives trading at Eurex climbed 25 percent this February. Notional outstanding in OTC Clearing rose by 17 percent compared to February 2024. Eurex, Europe’s leading derivatives exchange and – along with Eurex Clearing – one of the leading central counterparties globally, reported a 12 percent increase in total trading volume for February, reaching 173.0 million contracts compared to 154.6 million contracts in the same month last year. This growth was mainly fueled by a 25 percent rise in equity derivatives, which surged from 19.9 million to 24.9 million contracts. Interest rate derivatives experienced a 14 percent increase, climbing to 88.3 million contracts. Additionally, index derivatives rose by 3 per

Investor sentiment continued to decline in every market we follow, with investors in Asia ex-Japan, Global Developed ex-US and Global Emerging markets, now on the verge of turning bearish, joining Global Developed Markets investors who were already there. Investors in Europe and US are now strongly negative, but not yet bearish, with the only remaining positive investors being found in China and Japan, although less so than in the previous weeks. For those who thought the US voting with Russia and China against its allies at the UN was surreal, last week got a lot surrealer (I know Windows – not an actual word). And just like that, chaos returns to the White House, if it ever left. Very comforting. The one fixed point in an otherwise uncertain world. I must confess, the math needed to expl

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to weaken last week, with most markets ending either neutral or negative. In China, the mood shifted from bullish in prior weeks to just positive, despite billions in market-supporting measures from authorities and a 20% market gain since January 13. Globally, investors and US government employees are bracing for the impact of the Trump administration’s shock therapy, uncertain of its effectiveness and not expecting it to be as painless as promised. Much like during an earthquake, the best approach is to take cover, stay still, and wait for the shaking to stop before assessing the damage. As of now, the Trump administration’s policymaking feels like a magic 8 ball. The problem is that as long as the ball