To The Moon

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to deteriorate last week, ending bearish across all five regional markets we track. Among individual markets, U.S. investors oscillated in and out of bearishness. In the U.K., sentiment dropped sharply from neutral to strongly negative ahead of this week’s Autumn Budget report. Japan shifted from neutral to negative as investors assessed the potential economic fallout from the new Prime Minister’s diplomatic clash with China. In China, sentiment weakened further on disappointing FDI data, closing on the cusp between negative and bearish. Overall, the imbalance between risk demand and supply is now deeply negative across most major markets, leaving them highly vulnerable to sharp downside overreactions if

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to weaken last week, ending bearish in five of the ten markets we track: Asia ex-Japan, Global Developed, Global Developed ex-US, Global Emerging, and Europe. Sentiment in the US was negative, while investors in other markets were neutral. Sentiment in Australia and the UK slipped from positive to neutral, whereas in China and Japan it recovered from the previous week’s negative stance. Despite this growing pessimism, market returns remained positive, defying the trend in sentiment. The imbalance between the demand and supply for risk is now as strongly negative as it was before Liberation Day. In this environment, investors’ negative bias tends to make them overreact to bad news and underreact to good ne

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to deteriorate over the past two weeks, even as markets moved higher. Sentiment ended bearish in Asia ex-Japan, Europe, Global Developed ex-US, and Global Emerging Markets. Investors remained negative in China, Global Developed markets, and the US. Only Australia and the UK maintained positive sentiment — though both have been prone to sharp mood swings recently. Globally, the disconnect between investor sentiment and market performance is widening, reaching unsustainable levels in several markets where the imbalance between the demand and supply for risk has turned dangerously negative. The past two weeks were dominated by Trump news, both domestically and internationally, and he looks set to continue sh

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment kept drifting away from market performance last week. Fear of renewed US-China trade tensions weighed on sentiment, while markets shrugged off geopolitics and surged ahead on strong economic data and corporate earnings. By Friday, sentiment was negative in six markets (Asia ex-Japan, China, Global EM, Europe, Japan, US), neutral in three (Global DM, Global DM ex-US, UK), and positive only in Australia—boosted by rising gold prices and warmer US ties. Weekend headlines brought relief: progress on US-China trade talks, Milei’s strong local election showing (securing a US lifeline), and neutral US inflation data. Together, these should spark a sentiment rebound this week, reinforcing market momentum. Since Trump’s ret

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment weakened further last week, turning negative in four major markets—China, Europe, Japan, and the US—while remaining neutral elsewhere. Although the initial shock of the Liberation Day tariffs and related trade war concerns has eased, these issues continue to weigh heavily on investors’ minds. Some countries, including Japan, Canada, the UK, and the EU, have complied with the Trump administration’s demands by offering non-reciprocal trade terms. Others, such as India, China, and Brazil, have resisted, adding complexity to the global trade landscape. With no cohesive global trade framework currently in place, forecasting has become more difficult, and this lack of confidence is dampening investors’ appetite for risk.

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment closed the week in a holding pattern—dead neutral across all markets we track, except Japan where investors turned negative after the political fallout between the LDP and Komeito parties. It is as if investors globally are saying “We don’t know what’s going on between you two (US and China), but we don’t like it one bit”. Except in Japan where they seem to be saying “We don’t know either, but we have our own leadership vacuum to deal with”. Right now, the market shows a perfect balance between the supply and demand for risk—there’s no sign of a sentiment-driven risk premium anywhere, except in Japan, where risk aversion is climbing rapidly. This week, ‘tariffied’ investors will be watching closely for any sign tha

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment continued to rebound last week, largely thanks to a steady decline in risk aversion—except in the UK. There, investors had shown a genuine appetite for risk in September but dialed back their enthusiasm somewhat last week. Globally, investors are less negative, but still not confident enough to shift beyond a neutral stance. Only those in the US, UK, and Global Developed markets managed to edge into slightly positive territory. In Japan, investors remained neutral in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the weekend’s LDP leadership election, which saw (on her third attempt) the election of Takaichi, the party’s first female leader and a known follower of Abenomics. That outcome should give sentiment a lift this week. Meanw

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Resilient market returns have sparked a sentiment recovery in six of the markets we track — China, Global Developed, Europe, Japan, the UK, and the US — narrowing the gap between market performance and investor sentiment that had widened since early August. In contrast, sentiment remains out of sync with market performance in four other regions: Asia ex-Japan, Australia, Global Developed ex-US, and Global Emerging Markets. Notably, except for the UK, the sentiment rebound was driven more by a decline in risk aversion than by an increase in risk tolerance. This means investors in those markets feel less urgency to protect against downside risk, but that sense of security hasn’t yet translated into a greater willingness to take on risk

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investor sentiment remained range-bound last week, fluctuating between mildly positive and mildly negative as investors struggled to make sense of conflicting economic signals. The ongoing gap between market performance and sentiment persisted in most regions, narrowing only in the US, UK, and other developed markets. A lack of transparency, consistency, and clarity about the fundamental economic outlook is translating into a lack of confidence, direction, and consensus among global investors. This uncertainty is likely to persist in the near term, especially as the leading effects of tariffs begin to show up in lagging economic data in Q4. Markets and sentiment have been locked in a cat-and-mouse game for weeks, with no clear end in

Insights from last week's changes in investor sentiment: Investors remained hesitant to fully embrace last week’s market rallies, with sentiment ending neutral in five markets and negative in four. Only in Global Emerging Markets did investors show genuine bullishness. Despite lingering doubts about both macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, the recent divergence between rising market returns and falling sentiment narrowed in four of the markets we track—namely the UK, Japan, Global Developed Markets, and the US. It’s as if the bears investors feared were circling the markets have wandered off, distracted by other concerns. Now, investors are sniffing the air for any lingering trace of bearishness—and finding none. It’s as though the Fed’s expected rate cut has scrubbed their scent cl