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teh1234

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- teh1234teh1234
  ·2021-06-17
  n
  U.S. jobless claims for the week of June 12 were 412,000
  6月17日讯，美国6月12日当周初请失业金人数41.2万人，预期35.9万人，前值由37.6万人修正为37.5万人。数据公布后，美股期货跌幅小幅缩窄；现货黄金短线走高近5美元，报1780.64美元/
  U.S. jobless claims for the week of June 12 were 412,000
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- teh1234teh1234
  ·2021-06-15
  e
  Citi joins chorus of strategists, agrees there is hawkish risk at this week's FOMC meeting
  花旗集团加入越来越多的卖方策略师之列，认为本周三的FOMC声明存在鹰派风险，Bill O' Donnell等人在周一的报告中称债券价格现在“对鹰派结果、而非鸽派结果更敏感”。　　此前摩根大通策略师加入道明证券之列建议做空10年期头寸，摩根士丹利策略师则警告称美联储会出现鹰派倾向。
  Citi joins chorus of strategists, agrees there is hawkish risk at this week's FOMC meeting
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- teh1234teh1234
  ·2021-06-14
  se
  Monarch Strategy: Get Out of the Fog of Inflation and Welcome the Pull-Up in the Light
  本报告导读市场关心的通胀问题正随预期曲线脱虚向实走向确定，估值挣脱负向束缚，市场将在震荡蓄力后继续拉升。行业配置上，看好券商/新能车/电子/医药/新兴消费等行业。摘要大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡
  Monarch Strategy: Get Out of the Fog of Inflation and Welcome the Pull-Up in the Light
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- teh1234teh1234
  ·2021-06-13
  x
  The purchasing power of the dollar may fall permanently, the fastest rate since 1982
  分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。
  The purchasing power of the dollar may fall permanently, the fastest rate since 1982
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The previous value was revised from 376,000 to 375,000.</p><p>After the data was released, the decline of U.S. stock futures narrowed slightly; Spot gold rose by nearly $5 in the short term to $1,780.64/oz; Spot silver is $0.1 higher and now trades at $26.29/oz.</p><p>Greg Michalowski, analyst of Forexlive, a financial website: The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States returned to above 400,000 in the week ending June 12th, and the data performance was disappointing.</p><p><b>Agency review of the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States in the week ending June 12th:</b>U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly recorded 412,000 last week, the first increase in more than a month, but layoffs eased amid a reopening of the economy and a shortage of people willing to work. The U.S. economy is facing a labor shortage, although current jobs are still 7.6 million below their February 2020 peak. Due to the shortage of childcare facilities, some parents (mostly women) are left to stay at home.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. jobless claims for the week of June 12 were 412,000</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. jobless claims for the week of June 12 were 412,000\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 20:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On June 17th, the number of unemployment claims in the United States in the week of June 12th was 412,000, which was expected to be 359,000. The previous value was revised from 376,000 to 375,000.</p><p>After the data was released, the decline of U.S. stock futures narrowed slightly; Spot gold rose by nearly $5 in the short term to $1,780.64/oz; Spot silver is $0.1 higher and now trades at $26.29/oz.</p><p>Greg Michalowski, analyst of Forexlive, a financial website: The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States returned to above 400,000 in the week ending June 12th, and the data performance was disappointing.</p><p><b>Agency review of the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States in the week ending June 12th:</b>U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly recorded 412,000 last week, the first increase in more than a month, but layoffs eased amid a reopening of the economy and a shortage of people willing to work. The U.S. economy is facing a labor shortage, although current jobs are still 7.6 million below their February 2020 peak. Due to the shortage of childcare facilities, some parents (mostly women) are left to stay at home.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5712911a97692958e444016d45d93118","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142509656","content_text":"6月17日讯，美国6月12日当周初请失业金人数41.2万人，预期35.9万人，前值由37.6万人修正为37.5万人。\n数据公布后，美股期货跌幅小幅缩窄；现货黄金短线走高近5美元，报1780.64美元/盎司；现货白银走高0.1美元，现报26.29美元/盎司。\n财经网站Forexlive分析师Greg Michalowski：美国至6月12日当周初请失业金人数重回40万人上方，数据表现令人失望。\n机构评美国至6月12日当周初请失业金人数：上周美国初请失业金人数意外录得41.2万人，为一个多月以来首次录得增加，但在经济重新开放和愿意工作的人员短缺的情况下，裁员情况有所缓解。美国经济正面临着劳动力短缺问题，尽管目前的就业岗位仍比2020年2月的峰值低760万。由于儿童保育设施的短缺，部分父母（主要是女性）只能呆在家中。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184571277,"gmtCreate":1623720182899,"gmtModify":1704209465750,"author":{"id":"3583135297870207","authorId":"3583135297870207","name":"teh1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583135297870207","idStr":"3583135297870207"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"e","listText":"e","text":"e","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184571277","repostId":"2143690738","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2143690738","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623686635,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2143690738?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 00:03","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Citi joins chorus of strategists, agrees there is hawkish risk at this week's FOMC meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2143690738","media":"新浪财经","summary":"花旗集团加入越来越多的卖方策略师之列，认为本周三的FOMC声明存在鹰派风险，Bill O' Donnell等人在周一的报告中称债券价格现在“对鹰派结果、而非鸽派结果更敏感”。　　此前摩根大通策略师加入道明证券之列建议做空10年期头寸，摩根士丹利策略师则警告称美联储会出现鹰派倾向。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The group joins a growing number of sell-side strategists who see hawkish risk in this Wednesday's FOMC announcement, with Bill O'Donnell et al reporting Monday that bond prices are now \"more sensitive to hawkish, not dovish, results\".</p><p>Citi economists see hawkish risk on Wednesday, as the FOMC's core inflation forecast for this year may be \"substantially\" upgraded, and \"2022 may be slightly upgraded\"; In this scenario, Citi believes the bonds are \"overbought and struggle (so far) to build on Thursday's price rise\".</p><p>Specific to the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield, they believe that the 1-month pullback looks overdone/fully digested now, while the 30-year Treasury Bond yield is still in a bull channel but is \"currently overbought locally\".</p><p>They see 1.36% of the 10-year as a \"major short<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">Trend line</a>\",\" If tested, it should also be a level/trend that constitutes resistance to some results \".</p><p>previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists join TD Securities in recommending short 10-year positions,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategists warned of a hawkish tendency at the Fed.</p>","source":"highlight_sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Citi joins chorus of strategists, agrees there is hawkish risk at this week's FOMC meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCiti joins chorus of strategists, agrees there is hawkish risk at this week's FOMC meeting\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">新浪财经</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 00:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>The group joins a growing number of sell-side strategists who see hawkish risk in this Wednesday's FOMC announcement, with Bill O'Donnell et al reporting Monday that bond prices are now \"more sensitive to hawkish, not dovish, results\".</p><p>Citi economists see hawkish risk on Wednesday, as the FOMC's core inflation forecast for this year may be \"substantially\" upgraded, and \"2022 may be slightly upgraded\"; In this scenario, Citi believes the bonds are \"overbought and struggle (so far) to build on Thursday's price rise\".</p><p>Specific to the US 10-year Treasury Bond yield, they believe that the 1-month pullback looks overdone/fully digested now, while the 30-year Treasury Bond yield is still in a bull channel but is \"currently overbought locally\".</p><p>They see 1.36% of the 10-year as a \"major short<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">Trend line</a>\",\" If tested, it should also be a level/trend that constitutes resistance to some results \".</p><p>previously<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Strategists join TD Securities in recommending short 10-year positions,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Strategists warned of a hawkish tendency at the Fed.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-15/doc-ikqciyzi9622401.shtml\">新浪财经</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/645ed615aa2b041257c1347b443010ec","relate_stocks":{"C":"花旗"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-06-15/doc-ikqciyzi9622401.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2143690738","content_text":"花旗集团加入越来越多的卖方策略师之列，认为本周三的FOMC声明存在鹰派风险，Bill O' Donnell等人在周一的报告中称债券价格现在“对鹰派结果、而非鸽派结果更敏感”。\n花旗经济学家认为周三将出现鹰派风险，因FOMC今年的核心通胀预测可能“大幅”上调，“2022年的可能略微上调”；在这一情境下，花旗认为债券“已超买，且（到目前为止）难以在周四的价格上涨基础上继续”。\n具体到美国10年期国债收益率，他们认为1个月的回调看起来现在已过头/完全消化，而30年期国债收益率仍处于牛市通道，但“目前本地超买”。\n他们认为10年期的1.36%是“主要空头趋势线”，“如果经过测试，也应该是对一些结果构成阻力位的一个水平/趋势”。\n此前摩根大通策略师加入道明证券之列建议做空10年期头寸，摩根士丹利策略师则警告称美联储会出现鹰派倾向。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"C":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185590430,"gmtCreate":1623658321020,"gmtModify":1704207973136,"author":{"id":"3583135297870207","authorId":"3583135297870207","name":"teh1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583135297870207","idStr":"3583135297870207"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"se","listText":"se","text":"se","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/185590430","repostId":"1111262113","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111262113","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623657143,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1111262113?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 15:52","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"Monarch Strategy: Get Out of the Fog of Inflation and Welcome the Pull-Up in the Light","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111262113","media":"陈显顺策略研究","summary":"本报告导读\n市场关心的通胀问题正随预期曲线脱虚向实走向确定，估值挣脱负向束缚，市场将在震荡蓄力后继续拉升。行业配置上，看好券商/新能车/电子/医药/新兴消费等行业。\n摘要\n大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡","content":"<p><b>INTRODUCTION TO THIS REPORT</b></p><p><b>The inflation problem that the market is concerned about is determined with the expected curve moving from virtual to real, and the valuation breaks free of negative constraints. The market will continue to rise after the shock accumulates strength. In terms of industry configuration, we are optimistic about brokers/new energy vehicles/electronics/medicine/emerging consumption and other industries.</b></p><p><b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>General judgment: breaking free from the shackles of inflation, the shock does not last long, and then it is pulled up.</b>This week, the market continues to fluctuate in a narrow range around 3600 points. We believe that after the shock accumulates power, it will rise again, and the core driver lies in the accelerated downward trend of risk assessment at the denominator end.<b>1) Denominator: The acceleration of inflation determines that the risk assessment continues to decline.</b>Since March, with the rapid rise of PPI, the market has entered the fog of inflation, and the uncertainty is high and the market can't get out of the volatile pattern. By the end of May, the uncertainty of inflation, liquidity and other issues that the market was concerned about gradually converged, driving the marginal downward trend of risk assessment, and the market reached the first step. At present, with the settlement of the economic data in May, the high point of domestic inflation appeared as scheduled during the year, the market will get out of the fog of inflation, and the downward trend of risk assessment will accelerate again. From the historical market of China and the United States, we all see that with the decline of uncertainty, the core equity index has a high probability of rising. The superimposed risk-free interest rate is easy to go down but difficult to go up, and the kinetic energy at the denominator end is strong.<b>2) Molecular side: There is no need to be pessimistic about weakened earnings.</b>The market ignores the possibility of negative profit growth in the fourth quarter, but the negative profit growth actually depends on misfortune. Historically, when the profit growth rate turned from positive to negative, the liquidity showed the characteristics of easy loosening but difficult tightening. We believe that the negative profit growth will help relieve the pressure on the denominator end, so there is no need to be pessimistic.</p><p><b>The inflation expectation curve moves from virtual to real, uncertainty converges, and risk assessment continues to decline.</b>In May, the domestic PPI increased by 9.0% year-on-year under the influence of a low base, and peaked as scheduled. The next high point that may occur in the fourth quarter is difficult to exceed May, and the high point of the year has appeared. From the perspective of policy-anchored CPI, the year-on-year increase of 1.3% in May was not as expected, and the central bank's judgment that CPI was below 2% for the whole year also showed that inflation was worry-free. In the United States, the CPI increased by 5% year-on-year in May as scheduled, and the high point of the year will come in June. With the appearance of inflation highs in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is moving from virtual to real, and the trend is certain. In addition, the problem of credit contraction is also determined. In May, the growth rate of social financing dropped by 0.7 points compared with the previous month, and the fastest downward stage basically ended, and it is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the trend of inflation and credit contraction, which the market is most concerned about, is determined, the impact of both on valuation will transition from the negative constraint in the previous period to a smooth transition. The upgrade of DR007 in the future may be a hidden danger in the downward trend of uncertainty, but we think that more will follow the Fed and will not actively raise it in the current window.</p><p><b>The risk assessment is going down, the market trading structure is quietly changing, and the real main line is blue chip in the middle of the market.</b>Although the heavyweights represented by Mao Index have rebounded recently, in fact, most of the stocks with the highest gains since May are concentrated in mid-cap blue chips in sub-sectors, not large-cap blue chips. From the perspective of trading, it can also be observed that the real main line of the market is in the second-line mid-market and growth style. Since mid-May, the activity of market transactions has risen again, and the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has repeatedly reached the trillion mark. In this round of upward market activity, there are three obvious characteristics: 1) The market activity concentrates from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks; 2) The market prefers growth and balance stocks, while the preference for value stocks weakens; 3) Most of the core assets represented by Mao Index have shrunk, while most of the heavy-volume stocks are in growth style. Mao Index just follows. At present, the trillion-dollar trading volume has begun to be more biased towards the mid-cap blue chip with profit flexibility and early stagflation, and it has moved towards the sustained high prosperity of scientific and technological growth.</p><p><b>Risk evaluation is downward, and buy varieties with great marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.</b>According to the degree of benefit of risk assessment to industry allocation, the key recommendations are as follows: 1) The risk assessment is downward, and securities firms/banks are the first to recommend; 2) The starting point of scientific and technological growth: new energy vehicles/electronics/computers/military industry/medicine; 3) Accelerated recovery in the post-epidemic era: domestic consumption/emerging consumption/high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new opportunities in science and technology: building materials/steel/construction engineering; 5) Oversold counterattack of midstream manufacturing under the expected marginal easing of cost restriction: home appliances/machinery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2bcd796be925b82e0d3da9d761c3e6b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7884823692794a84559db1302659e75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><i><b>Accumulating power in the shock, followed by pulling up</b></i></p><p><b>General judgment: breaking free from the shackles of inflation, the shock does not last long, and then it is pulled up.</b>This week, the market continues to fluctuate in a narrow range around 3600 points. We believe that after the shock accumulates power, it will rise again, and the core driver lies in the accelerated downward trend of risk assessment at the denominator end. 1）<b>Denominator: The acceleration of inflation is determined to drive the risk assessment to continue to decline.</b>Since March, with the rapid rise of PPI, the market has entered the fog of inflation, and the uncertainty is high and the market can't get out of the volatile pattern. By the end of May, the uncertainty of inflation, liquidity and other issues that the market was concerned about gradually converged, driving the marginal downward trend of risk assessment, and the market reached the first step. At present, with the settlement of the economic data in May, the high point of domestic inflation appeared as scheduled during the year, the market will get out of the fog of inflation, and the downward trend of risk assessment will accelerate again. From the historical market of China and the United States, we can all see that with the decline of uncertainty, the core equity index has a high probability of rising. The superimposed risk-free interest rate is easy to go down but difficult to go up, and the kinetic energy at the denominator end is strong. 2）<b>Molecular side: No need to be pessimistic about weakened earnings.</b>The market ignores the possibility of negative profit growth in the fourth quarter, but the negative profit growth actually depends on misfortune. Historically, when the profit growth rate turned from positive to negative, the liquidity showed the characteristics of easy loosening but difficult tightening. We believe that the negative profit growth will help relieve the pressure on the denominator end, so there is no need to be pessimistic.</p><p><b>2、</b><i><b>The expectation curve shifts from real to imaginary, and the uncertainty continues to converge</b></i></p><p><b>The inflation expectation curve moves from virtual to real, uncertainty converges, and risk assessment continues to decline.</b>In May, the domestic PPI increased by 9.0% year-on-year under the influence of a low base, and peaked as scheduled. The next high point that may occur in the fourth quarter is difficult to exceed May, and the high point of the year has appeared. From the perspective of policy-anchored CPI, the year-on-year increase of 1.3% in May was not as expected, and the central bank's judgment that CPI was below 2% for the whole year also showed that inflation was worry-free. In the United States, the CPI increased by 5% year-on-year in May as scheduled, and the high point of the year will come in June. With the appearance of inflation highs in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is moving from virtual to real, and the trend is certain. In addition, the problem of credit contraction is also determined. In May, the growth rate of social financing dropped by 0.7 points compared with the previous month, and the fastest downward stage basically ended, and it is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the trend of inflation and credit contraction, which the market is most concerned about, is determined, the impact of both on valuation will transition from the negative constraint in the previous period to a smooth transition. The upgrade of DR007 in the future may be a hidden danger in the downward trend of uncertainty, but we think that more will follow the Fed and will not actively raise it in the current window.</p><p><b>3、</b><i><b>Quietly Changing Structure: The Real Main Line is Blue Chip in the Middle Plate</b></i></p><p><b>The risk assessment is going down, the market trading structure is quietly changing, and the real main line is blue chip in the middle of the market.</b>Although the heavyweights represented by Mao Index have rebounded recently, in fact, most of the stocks with the highest gains since May are concentrated in mid-cap blue chips in sub-sectors, not large-cap blue chips. From the perspective of trading, it can also be observed that the real main line of the market is in the second-line mid-market and growth style. Since mid-May, the activity of market transactions has risen again, and the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has repeatedly reached the trillion mark. In this round of upward market activity, there are three obvious characteristics: 1) The market activity concentrates from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks; 2) The market prefers growth and balance stocks, while the preference for value stocks weakens; 3) Most of the core assets represented by Mao Index have shrunk, while most of the heavy-volume stocks are in growth style. Mao Index just follows. At present, the trading volume of trillions has begun to be more biased towards the mid-cap blue chip with profit flexibility and early stagflation, and it has moved towards the sustained high prosperity of scientific and technological growth. Under the downward trend of risk assessment, in the future, we should continue to firm the investment idea of \"mid-cap blue-chip leading, and large-cap blue-chip following\".</p><p><b>4、</b><i><b>Industry Allocation: Brokerage Firms Take the Head, Growth Relay</b></i></p><p><b>Risk evaluation is downward, and buy varieties with great marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.</b>According to the degree of benefit of risk assessment to industry allocation, the key recommendations are as follows: 1) The risk assessment is downward, and the first brokerage firm (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>), bank (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600919\">Bank of Jiangsu</a>）； 2) Starting point of scientific and technological growth: new energy vehicles (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">Yiwei Lithium Energy</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688567\">Funeng Technology</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300450\">Pioneer Intelligence</a>), electronic (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">Luxshare Precision</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300458\">Quanzhi Technology</a>), computer (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300872\">Tianyang Technology</a>), military industry (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600760\">AVIC Shenyang</a>), medicine; 3) Accelerated recovery in the post-epidemic era: domestic consumption, emerging consumption and high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new opportunities in science and technology: building materials (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601636\">Kibing Group</a>), steel (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000932\">Valin Steel</a>), construction works (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000928\">Sinosteel International</a>）； 5) Oversold counterattack of midstream manufacturing under the expected marginal easing of cost restriction: home appliances (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600060\">Hisense Video</a>), mechanical.</p><p><b>5、</b><i><b>Five-dimensional data panorama</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caab272868b55107c6a023088a6aedd0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22615a7438ba57d26ceaa09c9b7b1707\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/405b8c9d96a3c7110cfb91be669a30dd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc735ff8f2740719cc57843575c1f1c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","source":"lsy1605406758829","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Monarch Strategy: Get Out of the Fog of Inflation and Welcome the Pull-Up in the Light</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMonarch Strategy: Get Out of the Fog of Inflation and Welcome the Pull-Up in the Light\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">陈显顺策略研究</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-14 15:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>INTRODUCTION TO THIS REPORT</b></p><p><b>The inflation problem that the market is concerned about is determined with the expected curve moving from virtual to real, and the valuation breaks free of negative constraints. The market will continue to rise after the shock accumulates strength. In terms of industry configuration, we are optimistic about brokers/new energy vehicles/electronics/medicine/emerging consumption and other industries.</b></p><p><b>Abstract</b></p><p><b>General judgment: breaking free from the shackles of inflation, the shock does not last long, and then it is pulled up.</b>This week, the market continues to fluctuate in a narrow range around 3600 points. We believe that after the shock accumulates power, it will rise again, and the core driver lies in the accelerated downward trend of risk assessment at the denominator end.<b>1) Denominator: The acceleration of inflation determines that the risk assessment continues to decline.</b>Since March, with the rapid rise of PPI, the market has entered the fog of inflation, and the uncertainty is high and the market can't get out of the volatile pattern. By the end of May, the uncertainty of inflation, liquidity and other issues that the market was concerned about gradually converged, driving the marginal downward trend of risk assessment, and the market reached the first step. At present, with the settlement of the economic data in May, the high point of domestic inflation appeared as scheduled during the year, the market will get out of the fog of inflation, and the downward trend of risk assessment will accelerate again. From the historical market of China and the United States, we all see that with the decline of uncertainty, the core equity index has a high probability of rising. The superimposed risk-free interest rate is easy to go down but difficult to go up, and the kinetic energy at the denominator end is strong.<b>2) Molecular side: There is no need to be pessimistic about weakened earnings.</b>The market ignores the possibility of negative profit growth in the fourth quarter, but the negative profit growth actually depends on misfortune. Historically, when the profit growth rate turned from positive to negative, the liquidity showed the characteristics of easy loosening but difficult tightening. We believe that the negative profit growth will help relieve the pressure on the denominator end, so there is no need to be pessimistic.</p><p><b>The inflation expectation curve moves from virtual to real, uncertainty converges, and risk assessment continues to decline.</b>In May, the domestic PPI increased by 9.0% year-on-year under the influence of a low base, and peaked as scheduled. The next high point that may occur in the fourth quarter is difficult to exceed May, and the high point of the year has appeared. From the perspective of policy-anchored CPI, the year-on-year increase of 1.3% in May was not as expected, and the central bank's judgment that CPI was below 2% for the whole year also showed that inflation was worry-free. In the United States, the CPI increased by 5% year-on-year in May as scheduled, and the high point of the year will come in June. With the appearance of inflation highs in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is moving from virtual to real, and the trend is certain. In addition, the problem of credit contraction is also determined. In May, the growth rate of social financing dropped by 0.7 points compared with the previous month, and the fastest downward stage basically ended, and it is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the trend of inflation and credit contraction, which the market is most concerned about, is determined, the impact of both on valuation will transition from the negative constraint in the previous period to a smooth transition. The upgrade of DR007 in the future may be a hidden danger in the downward trend of uncertainty, but we think that more will follow the Fed and will not actively raise it in the current window.</p><p><b>The risk assessment is going down, the market trading structure is quietly changing, and the real main line is blue chip in the middle of the market.</b>Although the heavyweights represented by Mao Index have rebounded recently, in fact, most of the stocks with the highest gains since May are concentrated in mid-cap blue chips in sub-sectors, not large-cap blue chips. From the perspective of trading, it can also be observed that the real main line of the market is in the second-line mid-market and growth style. Since mid-May, the activity of market transactions has risen again, and the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has repeatedly reached the trillion mark. In this round of upward market activity, there are three obvious characteristics: 1) The market activity concentrates from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks; 2) The market prefers growth and balance stocks, while the preference for value stocks weakens; 3) Most of the core assets represented by Mao Index have shrunk, while most of the heavy-volume stocks are in growth style. Mao Index just follows. At present, the trillion-dollar trading volume has begun to be more biased towards the mid-cap blue chip with profit flexibility and early stagflation, and it has moved towards the sustained high prosperity of scientific and technological growth.</p><p><b>Risk evaluation is downward, and buy varieties with great marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.</b>According to the degree of benefit of risk assessment to industry allocation, the key recommendations are as follows: 1) The risk assessment is downward, and securities firms/banks are the first to recommend; 2) The starting point of scientific and technological growth: new energy vehicles/electronics/computers/military industry/medicine; 3) Accelerated recovery in the post-epidemic era: domestic consumption/emerging consumption/high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new opportunities in science and technology: building materials/steel/construction engineering; 5) Oversold counterattack of midstream manufacturing under the expected marginal easing of cost restriction: home appliances/machinery.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2bcd796be925b82e0d3da9d761c3e6b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7884823692794a84559db1302659e75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"648\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>1、</b><i><b>Accumulating power in the shock, followed by pulling up</b></i></p><p><b>General judgment: breaking free from the shackles of inflation, the shock does not last long, and then it is pulled up.</b>This week, the market continues to fluctuate in a narrow range around 3600 points. We believe that after the shock accumulates power, it will rise again, and the core driver lies in the accelerated downward trend of risk assessment at the denominator end. 1）<b>Denominator: The acceleration of inflation is determined to drive the risk assessment to continue to decline.</b>Since March, with the rapid rise of PPI, the market has entered the fog of inflation, and the uncertainty is high and the market can't get out of the volatile pattern. By the end of May, the uncertainty of inflation, liquidity and other issues that the market was concerned about gradually converged, driving the marginal downward trend of risk assessment, and the market reached the first step. At present, with the settlement of the economic data in May, the high point of domestic inflation appeared as scheduled during the year, the market will get out of the fog of inflation, and the downward trend of risk assessment will accelerate again. From the historical market of China and the United States, we can all see that with the decline of uncertainty, the core equity index has a high probability of rising. The superimposed risk-free interest rate is easy to go down but difficult to go up, and the kinetic energy at the denominator end is strong. 2）<b>Molecular side: No need to be pessimistic about weakened earnings.</b>The market ignores the possibility of negative profit growth in the fourth quarter, but the negative profit growth actually depends on misfortune. Historically, when the profit growth rate turned from positive to negative, the liquidity showed the characteristics of easy loosening but difficult tightening. We believe that the negative profit growth will help relieve the pressure on the denominator end, so there is no need to be pessimistic.</p><p><b>2、</b><i><b>The expectation curve shifts from real to imaginary, and the uncertainty continues to converge</b></i></p><p><b>The inflation expectation curve moves from virtual to real, uncertainty converges, and risk assessment continues to decline.</b>In May, the domestic PPI increased by 9.0% year-on-year under the influence of a low base, and peaked as scheduled. The next high point that may occur in the fourth quarter is difficult to exceed May, and the high point of the year has appeared. From the perspective of policy-anchored CPI, the year-on-year increase of 1.3% in May was not as expected, and the central bank's judgment that CPI was below 2% for the whole year also showed that inflation was worry-free. In the United States, the CPI increased by 5% year-on-year in May as scheduled, and the high point of the year will come in June. With the appearance of inflation highs in China and the United States, the inflation expectation curve is moving from virtual to real, and the trend is certain. In addition, the problem of credit contraction is also determined. In May, the growth rate of social financing dropped by 0.7 points compared with the previous month, and the fastest downward stage basically ended, and it is expected to rebound to around 11% by the end of the year. As the trend of inflation and credit contraction, which the market is most concerned about, is determined, the impact of both on valuation will transition from the negative constraint in the previous period to a smooth transition. The upgrade of DR007 in the future may be a hidden danger in the downward trend of uncertainty, but we think that more will follow the Fed and will not actively raise it in the current window.</p><p><b>3、</b><i><b>Quietly Changing Structure: The Real Main Line is Blue Chip in the Middle Plate</b></i></p><p><b>The risk assessment is going down, the market trading structure is quietly changing, and the real main line is blue chip in the middle of the market.</b>Although the heavyweights represented by Mao Index have rebounded recently, in fact, most of the stocks with the highest gains since May are concentrated in mid-cap blue chips in sub-sectors, not large-cap blue chips. From the perspective of trading, it can also be observed that the real main line of the market is in the second-line mid-market and growth style. Since mid-May, the activity of market transactions has risen again, and the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has repeatedly reached the trillion mark. In this round of upward market activity, there are three obvious characteristics: 1) The market activity concentrates from large-cap stocks to mid-cap stocks; 2) The market prefers growth and balance stocks, while the preference for value stocks weakens; 3) Most of the core assets represented by Mao Index have shrunk, while most of the heavy-volume stocks are in growth style. Mao Index just follows. At present, the trading volume of trillions has begun to be more biased towards the mid-cap blue chip with profit flexibility and early stagflation, and it has moved towards the sustained high prosperity of scientific and technological growth. Under the downward trend of risk assessment, in the future, we should continue to firm the investment idea of \"mid-cap blue-chip leading, and large-cap blue-chip following\".</p><p><b>4、</b><i><b>Industry Allocation: Brokerage Firms Take the Head, Growth Relay</b></i></p><p><b>Risk evaluation is downward, and buy varieties with great marginal improvement from uncertainty to certainty.</b>According to the degree of benefit of risk assessment to industry allocation, the key recommendations are as follows: 1) The risk assessment is downward, and the first brokerage firm (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Oriental Fortune</a>), bank (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600919\">Bank of Jiangsu</a>）； 2) Starting point of scientific and technological growth: new energy vehicles (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002460\">Ganfeng Lithium</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300014\">Yiwei Lithium Energy</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688567\">Funeng Technology</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300450\">Pioneer Intelligence</a>), electronic (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">Luxshare Precision</a>/<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300458\">Quanzhi Technology</a>), computer (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300872\">Tianyang Technology</a>), military industry (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600760\">AVIC Shenyang</a>), medicine; 3) Accelerated recovery in the post-epidemic era: domestic consumption, emerging consumption and high-end consumption; 4) The next cycle of carbon neutrality and new opportunities in science and technology: building materials (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601636\">Kibing Group</a>), steel (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000932\">Valin Steel</a>), construction works (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000928\">Sinosteel International</a>）； 5) Oversold counterattack of midstream manufacturing under the expected marginal easing of cost restriction: home appliances (<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600060\">Hisense Video</a>), mechanical.</p><p><b>5、</b><i><b>Five-dimensional data panorama</b></i></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caab272868b55107c6a023088a6aedd0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"807\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22615a7438ba57d26ceaa09c9b7b1707\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/405b8c9d96a3c7110cfb91be669a30dd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc735ff8f2740719cc57843575c1f1c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lXIrz9JhVNfLrXE5yn4PCA\">陈显顺策略研究</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lXIrz9JhVNfLrXE5yn4PCA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111262113","content_text":"本报告导读\n市场关心的通胀问题正随预期曲线脱虚向实走向确定，估值挣脱负向束缚，市场将在震荡蓄力后继续拉升。行业配置上，看好券商/新能车/电子/医药/新兴消费等行业。\n摘要\n大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡不长久，此后是拉升。本周市场继续在3600点上下窄幅震荡，我们认为震荡蓄力之后将是再次拉升，核心驱动在于分母端风险评价的加速下行。1）分母端：通胀加速走向确定驱动风险评价继续下行。3月以来随着PPI快速走高，市场走入通胀迷雾，不确定性高企下行情走不出震荡格局。至5月下旬，市场关心的通胀、流动性等问题不确定性逐渐收敛，驱动风险评价边际下行，行情迈上第一个台阶。当前随着5月经济数据落定，国内通胀年内高点如期出现，市场将走出通胀迷雾，风险评价下行再度加速。从中美历史行情中，我们均看到随着不确定性下降，核心权益指数大概率上涨。叠加无风险利率易下难上的配合，分母端动能强劲。2）分子端：不必对弱化的盈利悲观。市场忽视了四季度盈利负增长的可能，但盈利负增实则祸兮福所倚。历史上盈利增速由正转负时，流动性均呈现易松难紧的特征，我们认为盈利负增有助于释缓分母端压力，不必悲观。\n通胀预期曲线脱虚向实，不确定性收敛不息，风险评价下行不止。国内5月PPI在低基数影响下同比高增9.0%如期见顶，四季度可能出现的次高点难超5月，年内高点已现。从政策锚定的CPI来看，5月同比上涨1.3%并未及预期，央行对CPI全年2%以下的判断亦显示通胀无忧。美国方面，5月CPI同比增长5%如期冲高，年内高点将于6月来临。随着中美通胀高点的先后出现，通胀预期曲线正脱虚向实，走向确定。此外信用收缩问题亦在走向确定，5月社融增速较上月回落0.7个点，最快的下行阶段基本结束，年底有望反弹至11%附近。随着市场最为关心的通胀与信用收缩走向确定，两者对估值影响将从前期的负向束缚向平稳过渡。未来DR007的调升可能是不确定性下行中的隐患，但我们认为更多会跟随美联储，并不会在当前窗口主动调升。\n风险评价下行，市场交易结构悄然变化，真正的主线在中盘蓝筹。尽管近期以茅指数为代表的权重股有所反弹，但事实上5月以来涨幅靠前的个股大多集中于细分行业的中盘蓝筹，并非大盘蓝筹。从交易视角来看，亦可观察到市场真正的主线在二线中盘与成长风格。5月中旬以来市场交易活跃度重新上行，沪深两市成交额多次站上万亿关口。在本轮市场活跃度上行过程中，呈现三个明显特征：1）市场活跃度从大盘股向中盘股集中趋势明显；2）市场更青睐成长与平衡股，而价值股偏好减弱；3）茅指数为代表的核心资产大多出现缩量，放量个股则多为成长风格。茅指数仅仅是跟随，当前万亿成交量已开始更偏向具备盈利弹性、前期滞涨的中盘蓝筹，并向持续高景气的科技成长挪动。\n风险评价下行，买从不确定到确定边际改善大的品种。按照风险评价对于行业配置的受益先后程度，重点推荐：1）风险评价下行，首推券商/银行；2）科技成长起点：新能源车/电子/计算机/军工/医药；3）后疫情时代复苏加速：国货消费/新兴消费/高端消费；4）碳中和下周期及科技新机遇：建材/钢铁/建筑工程；5）成本受制预期边际缓和下中游制造超跌反攻：家电/机械。\n\n1、震荡中蓄力，此后是拉升\n大势研判：挣脱通胀束缚，震荡不长久，此后是拉升。本周市场继续在3600点上下窄幅震荡，我们认为震荡蓄力之后将是再次拉升，核心驱动在于分母端风险评价的加速下行。1）分母端：通胀加速走向确定驱动风险评价继续下行。3月以来随着PPI快速走高，市场走入通胀迷雾，不确定性高企下行情走不出震荡格局。至5月下旬，市场关心的通胀、流动性等问题不确定性逐渐收敛，驱动风险评价边际下行，行情迈上第一个台阶。当前随着5月经济数据落定，国内通胀年内高点如期出现，市场将走出通胀迷雾，风险评价下行再度加速。从中美的历史行情中，我们均可以看到随着不确定性下降，核心权益指数大概率上涨。叠加无风险利率易下难上的配合，分母端动能强劲。2）分子端：不必对弱化的盈利悲观。市场忽视了四季度盈利负增长的可能，但盈利负增实则祸兮福所倚。历史上盈利增速由正转负时，流动性均呈现易松难紧的特征，我们认为盈利负增有助于释缓分母端压力，不必悲观。\n2、预期曲线脱实向虚，不确定性继续收敛\n通胀预期曲线脱虚向实，不确定性收敛不息，风险评价下行不止。国内5月PPI在低基数影响下同比高增9.0%如期见顶，四季度可能出现的次高点难超5月，年内高点已现。从政策锚定的CPI来看，5月同比上涨1.3%并未及预期，央行对CPI全年2%以下的判断亦显示通胀无忧。美国方面，5月CPI同比增长5%如期冲高，年内高点将于6月来临。随着中美通胀高点的先后出现，通胀预期曲线正脱虚向实，走向确定。此外信用收缩问题亦在走向确定，5月社融增速较上月回落0.7个点，最快的下行阶段基本结束，年底有望反弹至11%附近。随着市场最为关心的通胀与信用收缩走向确定，两者对估值影响将从前期的负向束缚向平稳过渡。未来DR007的调升可能是不确定性下行中的隐患，但我们认为更多会跟随美联储，并不会在当前窗口主动调升。\n3、悄然变化的结构：真正主线在中盘蓝筹\n风险评价下行，市场交易结构悄然变化，真正的主线在中盘蓝筹。尽管近期以茅指数为代表的权重股有所反弹，但事实上5月以来涨幅靠前的个股大多集中于细分行业的中盘蓝筹，并非大盘蓝筹。从交易视角来看，亦可观察到市场真正的主线在二线中盘与成长风格。5月中旬以来市场交易活跃度重新上行，沪深两市成交额多次站上万亿关口。在本轮市场活跃度上行过程中，呈现三个明显特征：1）市场活跃度从大盘股向中盘股集中趋势明显；2）市场更青睐成长与平衡股，而价值股偏好减弱；3）茅指数为代表的核心资产大多出现缩量，放量个股则多为成长风格。茅指数仅仅只是跟随，当前万亿成交量已开始更偏向具备盈利弹性、前期滞涨的中盘蓝筹，并向持续高景气的科技成长挪动。风险评价下行之下，未来应继续坚定“中盘蓝筹领跑，大盘蓝筹跟随”的投资思路。\n4、行业配置：券商打头，成长接力\n风险评价下行，买从不确定到确定边际改善大的品种。按照风险评价对于行业配置的受益先后程度，重点推荐：1）风险评价下行，首推券商（东方财富）、银行（江苏银行）；2）科技成长起点：新能源车（赣锋锂业/亿纬锂能/孚能科技/先导智能）、电子（立讯精密/全志科技）、计算机（天阳科技）、军工（中航沈飞）、医药；3）后疫情时代复苏加速：国货消费、新兴消费、高端消费；4）碳中和下周期及科技新机遇：建材（旗滨集团）、钢铁（华菱钢铁）、建筑工程（中钢国际）；5）成本受制预期边际缓和下中游制造超跌反攻：家电（海信视像）、机械。\n5、五维数据全景图","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182632234,"gmtCreate":1623567510828,"gmtModify":1704206376736,"author":{"id":"3583135297870207","authorId":"3583135297870207","name":"teh1234","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583135297870207","idStr":"3583135297870207"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"x","listText":"x","text":"x","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/182632234","repostId":"1186135122","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186135122","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623465545,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1186135122?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-12 10:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The purchasing power of the dollar may fall permanently, the fastest rate since 1982","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186135122","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。","content":"<p>Author: Lin Jingyang</p><p>The surge in U.S. inflation comes as analysts find that the buying power of the dollar is falling at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years and may never rebound.</p><p>Wolf Richter, founder of Wolf Street, a US financial website, analyzed the data of the US Department of Labor and said that with the explosive increase of 5% year-on-year in the US CPI in May, the purchasing power of the US dollar (for all consumer goods denominated in US dollars, including labor force) dropped by 0.8% in May.<b>In the past three months, it fell by a sharp 2.4%, the biggest three-month decline since 1982.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f96d36e43e2873bf2430c88a4757a2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At an annualized rate, eliminating the impact of the year-over-year base effect, three-month purchasing power decreased by 9.5%.</p><p><b>The loss of the purchasing power of the dollar is mainly reflected in the automobile and housing markets.</b></p><p>In May, durable goods prices soared 10.3% year-on-year, especially used cars, which rose 30%, and new car prices also rose 3.3% year-on-year, the biggest increase since 2012. According to JD Power, the retail \"average transaction price\" (ATP) of new cars jumped to $38,255 in May, while ATP has increased 28% over the past seven years and has increased significantly since June last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0bbac1844aabeda7246d41b54e9a61\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Housing costs (rent + home ownership costs), which account for about one-third of the overall CPI, also improved significantly. Among them, the rent part has been rising at a constant rate of 0.2% this year, and has risen by 2.2% in the past 12 months; The owner's \"equivalent rent\" also continues to rise.</p><p>In May, the Case-Shiller home price index rose 13.2% year over year, the strongest growth since December 2005 (purple line). It is a more realistic measure of house price inflation, measuring the price of the same home over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b936def692183aceb0058e10673448dc\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wolf Richter believes that \"the current decline in purchasing power is permanent, and there will be a permanent plunge in purchasing power in the future\".<b>Even if the CPI drops from 5% year-on-year to 4% in May next year, this part of lost purchasing power is no longer likely to recover.</b></p><p>The only possible \"temporary\" event is a decline in price levels over a short period of time. This has only happened a few quarters in my life, such as the last few months of 2008 (pictured above). So I'm not hopeful (for a long-term PPP rebound).</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The purchasing power of the dollar may fall permanently, the fastest rate since 1982</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe purchasing power of the dollar may fall permanently, the fastest rate since 1982\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-12 10:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Author: Lin Jingyang</p><p>The surge in U.S. inflation comes as analysts find that the buying power of the dollar is falling at its fastest pace in nearly 40 years and may never rebound.</p><p>Wolf Richter, founder of Wolf Street, a US financial website, analyzed the data of the US Department of Labor and said that with the explosive increase of 5% year-on-year in the US CPI in May, the purchasing power of the US dollar (for all consumer goods denominated in US dollars, including labor force) dropped by 0.8% in May.<b>In the past three months, it fell by a sharp 2.4%, the biggest three-month decline since 1982.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89f96d36e43e2873bf2430c88a4757a2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"400\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>At an annualized rate, eliminating the impact of the year-over-year base effect, three-month purchasing power decreased by 9.5%.</p><p><b>The loss of the purchasing power of the dollar is mainly reflected in the automobile and housing markets.</b></p><p>In May, durable goods prices soared 10.3% year-on-year, especially used cars, which rose 30%, and new car prices also rose 3.3% year-on-year, the biggest increase since 2012. According to JD Power, the retail \"average transaction price\" (ATP) of new cars jumped to $38,255 in May, while ATP has increased 28% over the past seven years and has increased significantly since June last year.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f0bbac1844aabeda7246d41b54e9a61\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Housing costs (rent + home ownership costs), which account for about one-third of the overall CPI, also improved significantly. Among them, the rent part has been rising at a constant rate of 0.2% this year, and has risen by 2.2% in the past 12 months; The owner's \"equivalent rent\" also continues to rise.</p><p>In May, the Case-Shiller home price index rose 13.2% year over year, the strongest growth since December 2005 (purple line). It is a more realistic measure of house price inflation, measuring the price of the same home over time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b936def692183aceb0058e10673448dc\" tg-width=\"498\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wolf Richter believes that \"the current decline in purchasing power is permanent, and there will be a permanent plunge in purchasing power in the future\".<b>Even if the CPI drops from 5% year-on-year to 4% in May next year, this part of lost purchasing power is no longer likely to recover.</b></p><p>The only possible \"temporary\" event is a decline in price levels over a short period of time. This has only happened a few quarters in my life, such as the last few months of 2008 (pictured above). So I'm not hopeful (for a long-term PPP rebound).</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48dfa66be8caa6517cb956851a00eed","relate_stocks":{"UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186135122","content_text":"作者：林菁扬\n美国通胀飙升之际，分析师发现美元购买力正以近40年最快速度下跌，并可能永远不会反弹。\n美国财经网站Wolf Street创始人Wolf Richter分析美国劳工部数据称，随着美国5月CPI同比爆发式增长5%，美元购买力（对包括劳动力在内，一切以美元计价的消费品）5 月份下降了0.8%，过去三个月则大幅下降2.4%，创下自1982年以来最大三个月跌幅。\n\n按年率计算，消除同比基数效应影响，三个月购买力下降了9.5%。\n美元购买力丧失主要体现在汽车和房屋市场。\n5月，耐用品价格同比暴涨10.3%，尤其二手车增幅达到30%，新车价格也同比上涨3.3%，为2012年来最大涨幅。据JD Power数据，5月份新车零售“平均交易价格”（ATP）跃升至38255美元，而ATP在过去七年已增长28%，去年6月来更是增速大幅提升。\n\n约占整体CPI三分之一的住房成本（租金+房屋所有成本）也显著提升。其中，租金部分今年以来一直在以恒定0.2%的幅度持续上涨，过去12个月上涨了2.2%；业主“等价租金”也持续上升趋势。\n5月，Case-Shiller房价指数同比上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最强劲增长（紫色线）。这是一种更为现实的房价通胀衡量方法，衡量同一套房屋价格随时间的变化。\n\nWolf Richter认为，“当前购买力的下跌是永久性的，而未来购买力还将出现永久性的暴跌”，即便明年5月CPI由同比5%降至4%，这部分丧失的购买力也不再具有恢复的可能。\n\n 唯一可能“暂时”事件是，物价水平一小段时间内的下跌。这在我一生中只发生过几个季度，例如2008年的最后几个月（如上图所示）。所以我（对长期购买力反弹）不抱希望。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UUP":0.9,"USDindexmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}