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JasonXZ

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- JasonXZJasonXZ
  ·2021-06-15
  Nice
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- JasonXZJasonXZ
  ·2021-06-15
  Nice
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- JasonXZJasonXZ
  ·2021-06-15
  Nice
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- JasonXZJasonXZ
  ·2021-06-15
  Nice
  Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time
  Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.So what does AAPL do with all of the cash
  Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time
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- JasonXZJasonXZ
  ·2021-06-15
  Interesting
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- JasonXZJasonXZ
  ·2021-06-15
  Nice
  ARK: Cathie Wood And The Exquisite Art Of Tail Gunning
  Summary ARK Active ETFs are worth the management fee. Structured Lookback is introduced. Tails are
  ARK: Cathie Wood And The Exquisite Art Of Tail Gunning
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- JasonXZJasonXZ
  ·2021-06-15
  Wow
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- JasonXZJasonXZ
  ·2021-06-15
  Tiger trade event
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10:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167720481","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.So what does AAPL do with all of the cash","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.</li>\n <li>Investors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.</li>\n <li>Apple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.</li>\n <li>Eventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54c3b80a3353ef82f618688f13f74658\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>In 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&amp;P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers&nbsp;Cathie Wood&nbsp;of&nbsp;Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in&nbsp;Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.</p>\n<p>The market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation &amp; gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e86cb02096dfa9c6da05e350f274aa64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"556\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p><b>Apple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is</b></p>\n<p>So what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&amp;D]. In&nbsp;2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&amp;D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.</p>\n<p>So what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's&nbsp;board&nbsp;authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost&nbsp;$23 billion&nbsp;in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbaf61374104ed17e51201af591ab7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"349\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p><b>Meme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market</b></p>\n<p>GameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME &amp; AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c85258331453c02381346f8b6c676cec\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p>What's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through&nbsp;AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.</p>\n<p>When investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my&nbsp;AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&amp;P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN)&nbsp;has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and&nbsp;Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79e06d9bc68454731c984429111ff056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"661\"><span>(Source:multpl.com)</span></p>\n<p><b>Laying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable</b></p>\n<p>AAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.</p>\n<p>So the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when&nbsp;AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.</p>\n<p>I believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In&nbsp;2018 Services&nbsp;generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.</p>\n<p>Services are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f044f79f7525038fb94ed27b6a92209\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p>Wearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7071ec652302c6cab585fef4c408d65\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p>By the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cd231b75d9f875329f6713debe846b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"191\"><span>(Source: Apple)</span></p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>The meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Meme Stocks Or Apple, I Choose Apple Every Time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 10:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434600-apple-meme-stocks-or-apple-i-choose-apple-every-time","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167720481","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a negative investment in 2021 while Meme stocks have exploded which is ridiculous.\nInvestors have been granted an opportunity to purchase Apple before its next leg up while the attention has shifted to chasing the quick buck with Meme stocks.\nApple is on pace to generate more than $300 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2021 and $75 billion in net income.\nEventually Apple will be invested back to the party and their numbers will be celebrated.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nIn 2021, Apple (AAPL) has become a negative returning investment underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) by a margin greater than 15%. In May of 2021, one of the hottest fund managers Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, sold nearly 300,000 shares of AAPL from the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF). It was reported that ARK, at one point, was reducing their stake in AAPL to add to their positions in Coinbase (COIN) and DraftKings (DKNG). Actively managed funds such as the one's ARK oversees buy and sell equities daily and could have been using AAPL as an alternative to cash. AAPL has a mixed bag of reviews as some believe its best days are ahead of it while others believe the glory days won't be reclaimed. I think the market is granting investors an opportunity as AAPL should breakout from its sideways pattern in the 2ndhalf of 2021.\nThe market wasn't impressed by the blowout AAPL delivered in Q1 and Q2. Instead of an upside climb supported by fundamentals, shares of AAPL have been treading water. As an AAPL bull, it's perplexing that so much attention is placed on meme stocks instead of companies such as AAPL when it's setting the stage for their best year ever. After reading the comments of the recent articles on MEME stocks, I have written, then looking back at the comment sections of some AAPL articles, I just don't understand how the mindset is shifting to outright speculation & gambling rather than investing. In the first 2 quarters of the fiscal year, 2021 AAPL has generated $3.08 in EPS while the entire 2020 fiscal year delivered $3.31 in EPS. AAPL is solidifying the foundation for its best year ever in many metrics, yet the market isn't impressed. I believe there will be impressive fireworks in the 2ndhalf of 2021, and patient shareholders will be rewarded as Q3 and Q4 numbers are reported.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nApple believes it's the best investment in the market and puts their money where their mouth is\nSo what does AAPL do with all of the cash it generates? For starters, they spend tens of billions annually building out their businesses while investing in research and development [R&D]. In 2020, AAPL spent $169.56 billion on their cost of generating revenue. The fruits of their labor can be seen in their product offerings and how quickly their newest business segments, including services and wearables, Home, and accessories, have grown. AAPL allocated $18.75 billion in 2020 to R&D, generating advancements to their beloved products. One of the reasons AAPL has a cliental that could resemble a cult-like mentality is because AAPL doesn't stop innovating. They are always at the forefront pushing the boundaries of how technology can enhance an individual's daily life.\nSo what about the remaining cash after AAPL's business expenses are fulfilled? AAPL bets on themselves and views their stock as an investment. Since the fiscal year 2012, AAPL has repurchased $421.7 billion in its own stock. In 2021 AAPL has repurchased $43 billion in stock, indicating that senior leadership believes there is tremendous value in owning shares of AAPL. I remember the days where everyone got excited when insiders purchased shares of their company. For AAPL buying back stock is just an ordinary Monday. AAPL has repurchased more in stock over the past decade than most companies will ever see their market caps grow to. AAPL's board authorized an additional $90 billion to its existing share repurchase plan, and AAPL returned almost $23 billion in capital to shareholders in Q2 2021, it doesn't get more bullish than that.\n(Source: Apple)\nMeme stocks vs. Apple and the insanity of this market\nGameStop (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) have decimated AAPL in share price appreciation throughout the first half of 2021. Regardless of why GME and AMC are up, the fact of the matter is GME has generated a return that exceeds 1,100%, and AMC has returned over 2,000%. Anyone who has ridden GME or AMC up, I congratulate and tip my hat to you. The market is being fueled by delusions of grandeur as AAPL is negative for the year, yet GME & AMC have absolutely exploded to the upside.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nWhat's changed for AMC in the past several months? I can tell you, not a single thing. AMC is still a company that is in the red and barely makes money. I get it investing in companies like AMC can generate huge returns due to volatility, and I am not knocking it. If you can make money on it, by all means, don't let anyone stand in your way but be careful. When you read through AMC's income statement, they have never exceeded $400 million in net income. In the past decade, AMC's most profitable year was 2013, as their net income was $364.4 million. In 2019 which had zero ramifications from COVID, AMC generated $5.47 billion in revenue and couldn't even turn a profit as they lost -$149.1 million. AMC's last quarterly report had -$2.3 billion in equity on its balance sheet. The reality is AMC can issue additional shares and sell them to raise capital. This would benefit AMC by improving its balance sheet and increase its cash on hand. It seems like people don't understand that when a company issues more shares, the initial batch becomes diluted and is worthless because of the additional supply. AMC can issue shares and strengthen its balance sheet, but it won't solve its profit problems. AAPL pays more in dividends to its shareholders every quarter than the profit AMC has generated in the past decade, yet AMC is the stock generating larger returns.\nWhen investors purchase shares of AMC, they are buying a company with negative EPS. AMC's P/E ratio isn't measurable on a trailing twelve-month or a forward basis, yet investors are willing to pay for nonexistent earnings. In the comments of my AMC article, people said fundamentals don't matter. I understand that AMC has been a technical trade, but that doesn't change the reality that investors are paying for a company with negative earnings.Currently, the average PE Ratio for the S&P is 45.02. If I use the EPS AAPL generated in the first 6 months of the fiscal year 2021 of $3.08, their PE Ratio would be 40.55. For the TTM, AAPL has generated $4.49 in EPS, which brings their PE Ratio down to 28.09. Currently, investors are paying $28.09 for every $1 in earnings AAPL generates, which is low for the tech industry.Amazon (AMZN) has a PE of 62.44,Microsoft (MSFT)34.93, and Google (GOOGL)of 32.05. Call me old-fashioned, but I like to invest in companies that turn a profit.\n(Source:multpl.com)\nLaying out the bull case for Apple and why a breakout to the upside is inevitable\nAAPL has a cult-like following that gravitates to its products and services. For the first 6 months of 2021,AAPLhas generated $201.02 billion in revenue, $82.41 billion in gross profit, and $52.39 billion in net income. In 2021 AAPL has already generated 73.23% ($201.02 billion) of 2020's total revenue, then 78.51% of 2020's gross income ($82.41 billion) and 91.25% of 2020's total net income ($52.39 billion). AAPL is on track to decimate its previous records, and unless something unfathomable occurs, 2021 will be AAPL's best year ever.\nSo the real questions are what's causing the surge in AAPL's financials, and are they sustainable? Part of the reason is AAPL has seen an increase in its hardware sales from iPhone 12's down to iPads. An argument can be made that many people needed to upgrade their technology during the pandemic due to working from home or remote learning, but that logic can't be used for 2021. At the end of April, when AAPL reported Q2,their iPhone sales exceeded expectations by $7.14 billion, Mac sales by $2.2 billion, and iPad sales by $2.01 billion. These numbers were a year later, and while the iPhone 12, which was AAPL's first 5G release, was expected to create tailwinds, I believe the pandemic pushed society into a place where a greater emphasis is placed on technology.\nI believe AAPL will continue to see strong hardware sales, but that's only one piece of the puzzle. Services and Wearables Home and Accessories are becoming huge components of AAPL's financial metrics. In 2018 Services generated $39.75 billion in revenue. In 2019 Services increased by $6.54 billion (16.46%) as they finished the year with $46.29 billion in revenue. In 2020 Services grew by $7.48 billion (16.15%) as its revenue totaled $53.77 billion. In the first 6 months of 2020, Services has already generated $32.66 billion in revenue, which is 60.75% of 2020's total revenue. Services continue to grow creating a true business segment of reoccurring revenue for AAPL. The beauty of Services is with each piece of hardware AAPL sells; there is an opportunity to generate additional revenue through Services every month.\nServices are becoming a home run for AAPL as it diversifies its revenue mix away from being solely constructed from physical products. At the close of the fiscal year 2020, Services had increased its annual revenue by $29.42 billion (120.83%) in just 4 years. In the first 6 months of 2021, Services has generated $32.66 billion, which is 60% of 2020's annual revenue. AAPL is on track to crack $60 billion in revenue from Services in the fiscal year 2021. Looking further out, Services could be a $100 billion revenue generator in the not-too-distant future.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nWearables Home and Accessories continues to follow in Service's footsteps as it has become a larger revenue segment than iPad and Mac. With the inception of the Apple Watch, this category has grown from generating $11.13 billion in 2016 to $30.62 billion in 2020. Over 4 fiscal years, Wearables Home and Accessories has increased its revenue by $24.48 billion (175.06%), and its growth keeps expanding. In the first 6 months of 2021, Wearables Home and Accessories have generated $20.81 billion in revenue, which is 67.95% of 2020's total revenue. AAPL is certainly on track to generate $35 billion-plus in revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories in the fiscal year 2021. Over the next several years, AAPL is on track to generate $50 billion in annual revenue from Wearables Home and Accessories.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Apple)\nBy the end of the Fiscal Year 2025, there is a good chance that Services can generate more than $78 billion, and Wearables Home and Accessories could generate over $44 billion in annual revenue if they both grow at a 10% rate. These two categories are on pace to exceed $100 billion in revenue combined, which could grow into $150 billion annually in the late 2020s. I am shocked investors haven't been piling into AAPL, and it's even more ludicrous that an emphasis on AAPL's numbers isn't being discussed in greater detail. What's AAPL worth down the road when Services reaches $100 billion in revenue and Wearables Home and Accessories reaches $50 billion? Over the past decade, AAPL has continued to innovate and change how technology is used, and to think their best days are behind them is a notion I refuse to believe.\n(Source: Apple)\nConclusion\nThe meme stocks are causing a lot of excitement for some investors while they leave a whole other group shaking their heads. Other than a gamble, I can't understand why people want to invest in AMC when you could buy shares of AAPL on sale. AAPL should have exploded to the upside, but its 2 recent blowout quarters didn't move the needle. I believe it's going to be different once the Q3 numbers are reported. We're going to find out that once again, AAPL continues to buy shares by the billions while reporting that in 9 months, they have generated more net income than all of 2020. In the first 6 months of operations, AAPL has generated $201.02 billion in revenue and $52.39 billion in net income while giving back $53.2 billion in buybacks and dividends. Investors have been granted an opportunity to buy more AAPL before the next leg up. I am a shareholder of AAPL, and I plan on buying more before Q3 earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187994071,"gmtCreate":1623733596493,"gmtModify":1704209915484,"author":{"id":"3583400770236709","authorId":"3583400770236709","name":"JasonXZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583400770236709","authorIdStr":"3583400770236709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187994071","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187991879,"gmtCreate":1623733366891,"gmtModify":1704209909004,"author":{"id":"3583400770236709","authorId":"3583400770236709","name":"JasonXZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583400770236709","authorIdStr":"3583400770236709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187991879","repostId":"1164323104","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164323104","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623726988,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1164323104?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-15 11:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ARK: Cathie Wood And The Exquisite Art Of Tail Gunning","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164323104","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nARK Active ETFs are worth the management fee.\nStructured Lookback is introduced.\nTails are ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>ARK Active ETFs are worth the management fee.</li>\n <li>Structured Lookback is introduced.</li>\n <li>Tails are shown to have a logical structure and consistent patterns.</li>\n <li>The concepts of Simultaneity and Sequentiality are introduced.</li>\n <li>CO/OC directional differences are important indicators that are much more useful than two-dimensional measures like standard deviation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1271b2416859ceba7776d3cb65f490c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>phongphan5922/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Legend of Cathie Wood and Ark Active</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n Beatrix Kiddo: I am proficient in Tiger Crane style and more than proficient in the exquisite art of the samurai sword.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Kill Bill Vol 2 - The Cruel Tutelage of Pai Mei</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>There is no question that Cathie Wood will be elected to the Stock Picker Hall of Fame on the first year of eligibility. The last person achieving that honor was Peter Lynch.</p>\n<p>Ark Active ETFs weren't really on my radar until after&nbsp;Trading Edge&nbsp;was published on June 1. At some point, I planned to make that article more about equity groups instead of ETFs, specifically biotech. Eventually the plan changed because that seemed premature.</p>\n<p>Another reason for my lack of attention is that I usually look for issues with at least 1500 days of price history and the four horsemen of Ark Active passed that milestone less than 200 trade days ago.</p>\n<p>Some commentators have mentioned recent negative return issues with&nbsp;ARKG, noting that the natives are getting restless. The first argument has some merit and touches on technical details that will affect the entire market. But, call me a romantic, I'm OK with cutting ARK a little slack here.</p>\n<p><b>Tail Gunning</b></p>\n<p><b>Tail</b>&nbsp;is a statistical term related to&nbsp;<b>data distribution</b>. When data points are plotted, a&nbsp;<b>bell shaped curve</b>&nbsp;forms and the unusual results on either side of the curve are the tails. If the distribution is consistent with the ideal bell pattern, it is considered normal. Results of many coin flips produce a<b>normal distribution</b>, stock returns do not.</p>\n<p>This implies that&nbsp;<b>probabilities</b>&nbsp;based on normal distributions are accurate while non-normal distribution probabilities are not. This is a serious problem for the academic discipline of Finance as not understanding probabilities suggests that it cannot offer a practical methodology to mitigate&nbsp;<b>risk</b>.</p>\n<p>In this article, I will try to show that Ark Active returns are highly dependent on exploiting extreme tail activity. Hence the term&nbsp;<b>tail gunning</b>. Surprisingly, tail activity is more structured than one might initially think, so this may have some theoretical importance.</p>\n<p>ARK Active has been quite good over many years at staying on the wild side.</p>\n<p><b>The Legend of Data Manipulation</b></p>\n<p>Modern stock exchanges and casinos both appeared in the first part of the 17th century, not long after the modern rules of chess were established. Academic disciplines relevant to understanding these innovations such as calculus, linear algebra, statistics, quantum mechanics etc. slowly developed over the next 400 years.</p>\n<p>The revolutionary implications of data science have not yet been fully appreciated. Practical skill in data manipulation more than compensates for lack of formal academic knowledge in any of the other disciplines. A goal of my work is to demonstrate the soundness of this view.</p>\n<p>A trained practitioner of statistical finance won't approach the stock return problem through data manipulation. No doubt, data manipulation is my hammer, so everything else looks like a nail.</p>\n<p>Major weaknesses in the academic understanding of stuff in general include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Time</li>\n <li>High dimensionality</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Volatility is a function of time, claims by some financial sages that they understand volatility are prima facie absurd. Academic deficiencies can be exploited by competent users of computer power.</p>\n<p>In this article, I'll discuss how to set up and analyze market data, with attention given to the superb performance of the ARK Active ETFs.</p>\n<p><b>Price History Data</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d90c98591d40fa964b5d072099898d37\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The analysis presented here, only considers the date, open and close. Financial statisticians generally consider daily open, high, and low numbers to be noise. Essentially, that is an admission of the limitations of their analytical framework.</p>\n<p>Looking at one stock at a time is wrong on many different levels. It is absolutely critical to examine groups of stocks.</p>\n<p>A mechanism is needed to produce historical daily prices for many different stocks. Prices must be adjusted for dividends and splits. The data should be stored in Excel csv workbooks where the workbook and worksheet names are the stock symbol.</p>\n<p>Databases are inappropriate for historical price analysis. Rebuilding the data at least daily from scratch is quick and eliminates many possible points of failure.</p>\n<p>It is best to solve the data problem by paying for a reliable delivery method like Norgate. Everyone who does this type of work, initially spends a lot of time figuring out how to get prices for free. I did that for about 15 years. It is good to build up the skill and understanding, but eventually the cost of inefficient use of time is substantial.</p>\n<p><b>Data Transformation - Natural Log Returns</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe2b70f7a667237e2fde7818ec22248f\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"239\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The per share price of a stock has absolutely no rational analytical relevance, assuming the investor has at least enough money to buy one share.</p>\n<p>The human mind can deal with a limited number of things at once, and with stock groups, price is too much detail. Data transformation is a methodology to remove that complexity. Here, daily prices are transformed to a return stream. That makes it easy to analyze even large groups of equities.</p>\n<p>Natural logs are the correct way to store a return stream, unless you are in a contest to find an inferior solution.</p>\n<p>The simple calculations below need to be done for each date for each stock in the group being analyzed. It only takes a few minutes on an 8th generation i7 Windows PC to do this for hundreds of stocks containing thousands of days of price history.</p>\n<p>Using 3/16 in the table above as an example:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>CC</b>(Close to Close) = natural log of 3/16 Close / 3/15 Close = nl(394.62/395.12) = -0.0013.</li>\n <li><b>CO</b>(Close to Open) = natural log of 3/16 Open / 3/15 Close = nl(395.77/395.12) = 0.0017.</li>\n <li><b>OC</b>(Open to Close) = natural log of 3/16 Close / 3/16 Open = nl(394.62/395.77) = -0.0029.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The bCC/bCO/bOC columns are binary answers to the question of whether the excursion was positive (1 = positive 0 = not positive). It is quite useful to answer questions before they are asked. This same technique is used to encode strategies into a return stream.</p>\n<p>I specialize in low level stuff. For example, with the binary codes:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>If bCO = 1 and bOC = 1 Then bCC = 1</li>\n <li>If bCO = 0 and bOC = 0 Then bCC = 0</li>\n <li>otherwise, you have to check bCC.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Probably, most people wouldn't spend months analyzing the implications of that. I'm making good progress but still not finished. xSig, discussed below is related to that analysis. The issue is that if bCC = 4, bCO = 2, and bOC = 1 to create an Octal number; 3 and 4 can't happen.</p>\n<p><b>1,400-Day Structured Lookback</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a9152d4c32880ea9b67cfcfba92a528\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816a4f84749432ed63cad49e9629fea1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>CC1400 = CO1400 + OC1400</b></p>\n<p><b>$CC1400 = $CO1400 * $OC1400</b></p>\n<p>In my&nbsp;Trading Edge article, CC1400 was called tCC.</p>\n<p><b>CO/OC Imbalance</b></p>\n<p>The CO state is clearly dominant over OC. Trading Edge even suggested this may be a permanent market feature. It is somewhat heretical to even whisper of such things. If someone refutes that, I promise not to get mad.</p>\n<p>Trading Edge considered the 3x Bulls to be the most obvious way to exploit the CO edge. ARK Active smokes the leveraged financially engineered abominations.</p>\n<p><b>Structured Lookback Design</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3619120948d5766322b4336d698d190f\" tg-width=\"428\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>I introduced date yrmolation as a concept in my&nbsp;Kabbalah articlein January. Perhaps structured lookback is a better term, if only because it has more vowels. The idea is to provide a logical methodology for creating segments of sequential time.</p>\n<p>The day is the standard market unit of time. The traditional day/week/month/year construct does not get us closer to a suitable lookback solution, and mostly just confuses the issue. Generally, one doesn't solve a problem by adding needless complexity.</p>\n<p>Every total time frame of&nbsp;<b>n days</b>, is broken into 3 consecutive periods. The first period is 1/7 the total period, the second 2/7, and the third 4/7. I worked on this backwards of course, so:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>x[1] = 200</li>\n <li>x[2] = x[1] * 2 = 400</li>\n <li>x[3] = x[1] * 4 = 800</li>\n <li>x[0] = Total days = 200 + 400 + 800 = 1400</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Another time concept is iteration. The study is labeled 200i0. i0 means iteration 0. An i1 study implies the 1400 days before 11/13/15.</p>\n<p><b>xSig logic.</b>There are three hex codes after the x. The bit values go:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>8 = xx1400</li>\n <li>4 = xx200</li>\n <li>2 = xx400</li>\n <li>1 = xx800</li>\n</ul>\n<p>xFF2 appears most often in the table. This means:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>First/F - All structured CC periods have positive returns.</li>\n <li>Second/F - All Structured CO periods have positive returns.</li>\n <li>Third/2 - All OC periods except OC400 have losses.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Win Rate</b></p>\n<p>This is another critically important metric that virtually nobody looks at. In the table, the differences between CO and OC win rates are stunning.</p>\n<p><b>400-Day Segment Detail</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7299f454e25cd1b7c76e9270ba0d7555\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"318\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The 400-day segment showed the best numbers for OC so it is worth looking at. All four of the time segments display simultaneously on an HD monitor; the challenge writing about them is mostly how to cut up the information for the article format. The win percentages for OC are notably higher than those seen on the 1400 day study. ARKW performs respectably here, both CO and OC, but even in the best OC environment, with the most favorable ETF, CO is not worse.</p>\n<p><b>ARKG</b></p>\n<p>ARKG performs better CO than any of the 3x Bulls CC or CO. ARK win rates are all at least 62% CO, much better than the bulls. Win rates OC are much worse. Obviously, with the strategy of playing CO, ideally we want to see all positive returns during CO and all the negative returns during OC.</p>\n<p><b>Performance Graphs</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62164faed041f049e43de95eae97d7f8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Sam: I never walk into a place I don't know how to walk out of.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Ronin</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>I can see how the recent sharp excursion down to about the 38.2 fib line might freak out some of the CC players, especially those who bought near the top. Personally, I'm afraid of parabolic heights, so it is difficult for me to visualize the thought process of the players who were buying at triple digits. Guess that is why I'll never be rich.</p>\n<p>After detailed poring over the entrails and consulting entities whose names are best left unspoken, I think holding any of the ARK Active puppies CO is worth serious consideration.</p>\n<p>I was really impressed by ARK's stock selection results and watched a recent interview of Cathie, where she was confident of the funds performing at the historical pace. Needless to say, I've been curious if she knows about the CO/OC imbalance where a CO player could theoretically beat buy and hold by about a factor of 10.</p>\n<p><b>Finding Biotech Tail</b></p>\n<p>Virtually all Biotechs are part of the tail when considered with the stock universe, so all one needs is a list of suitable candidates.</p>\n<p>Biotech and Semiconductors are the two industries with the most favorable positive CO vs OC characteristics based on my research. Energy is also quite good, but I haven't looked at that sector closely. Small caps are also consistently favorable.</p>\n<p>Biotech is a bit more persistent and obvious. An ETF performs at some sort of median to the characteristics of the group it is composed of, but ETF numbers pretty much precisely reflect the characteristics of the entire group.</p>\n<p>81 biotech stocks with average daily volume greater than 300K, and current price greater than $10 were assembled. The top stocks in CC, CO, and OC will be shown below:</p>\n<p><b>Top Biotech CC</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d841bf3f146ef20a3b33e5907560506f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Top BioTech CO</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d42024dd22967d2389f0bff6f5051b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Top Biotech OC and Median</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71d670bb51438ece3d1e0ea1af330418\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>These are just overwhelming numbers arguing for CO. A random pick in this universe is much more likely to be profitable CO than anywhere else and that profit is much more likely to exceed CC. The win rates are lower than seen in most sectors. In general, this type of analysis is a fertile avenue for research.</p>\n<p><b>CO/OC or Standard Deviation</b></p>\n<p>The tendency of stocks to move in opposite directions CO and OC can be measured as has been shown here. These movements appear to be quite persistent and consistent in direction over time. The investor gains important and usable information by studying these structures, as opposed to standard deviation.</p>\n<p>Standard deviation only measures CC and ignores violent movements during the day. A year is usually considered the proper standard deviation sample, mostly because any other length is equally worthless.</p>\n<p><b>Recent Action</b></p>\n<p>CO has not been a great performer lately. I've been noting that on my website since at least March I think. The more interesting thing is watching things unfold with a decent toolset and trying to figure out what is happening.</p>\n<p><b>252-Day Structured Lookback</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d0b19158fd2c03a403a0b4e050337e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>I'll stick with natural log results only in this pass. A natural log of 0.69 is doubling your money. 0.72 for ARKG is CV$1 2.06. All of the puppies at least tripled CO except for ARKW. Not bad for a year. Note the CO win rate.</p>\n<p>xSig is weaker than long term as xFF is no longer showing. As time ranges get longer, xFF gets more common.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56d55c932d2bf44bdbc6453973b0deca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>I guess the CC players got annoyed that things were better at this end point than 6/11/21. CO win rates are about the best I've ever seen.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8545852036c8982dbfe9b43f7a5cbadb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Win rates seriously dropped from the 144 day segment. The Biotech correction started February 9th.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8a78565860d28888443a05446a954fc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The ARKG pattern starts with a double top. LABU and XBI made a single top, with a nice dark cloud cover candle that worked out for a change. In some parallel universes, they always work.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05104399c4fdd23a584cf50f2b0c17f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The black candles show the day traders getting slapped. No big deal for CO players. I'm happy I wasn't playing these guys during this period; no question I would have botched things up.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ae737de17a78652910a1d3026bcb38c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The 36-day shows weakness coming into CO and a little strength in OC at least for ARKG. Note the two winning percentages are the same. This is less trivial than it appears as that situation also exists in the Biotechs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/149ae96de3fe3e9bae8c62f9d00080d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dcc46d54a59d3ac1078bb04cdefaac4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The recent low at 72.87 was not only the important ludicrously long term 38.2 fib line but the 52 week moving average, and on the other side of the chasm there is obvious support around 72. I don't see how that can be arranged to spell sell. Note the pop we are seeing off the low is coming on OC strength.</p>\n<p>The plain meaning of the weekly chart is bullish: Heat sensitive longs from the congestion period, put stops in below the 52 week SMA that were triggered during the week of May 10. That is shown by the head fake and bottoming tail. Even a retest of the low would probably not be too bad, but hopefully that won't part of the near term conversation. The poke above the 13-week SMA is encouraging, a move above 93 doesn't seem excessively optimistic.</p>\n<p>Is The 252-Day Structured Lookback Kosher?</p>\n<p>252 market days is as close to an exact calendar year as you can get. 252 / 7 = 36. Therefore we can say that a market year is divided into 7 periods of 36 days. In this scheme, every day is the end of a year.</p>\n<p>With<b>Gematria</b>, the number 36 is 2 * 18. 18 = Life. 36 is comprised of the letters Lamed Vav, which correspond to the<b>TzadikimNistarim</b>, the 36 hidden righteous ones who support the world in every generation.</p>\n<p>Somehow, that gives me a little confidence that the structured lookback solution isn't completely ridiculous. It is definitely kosher.</p>\n<p>Simultaneity and Sequentiality</p>\n<blockquote>\n Adm Mark Turso USN Ret: You were given a Ferrari and your people treated it like a lawnmower.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The Bourne Legacy</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, I mentioned the binary codes bCC, bCO, and bOC. These probably have to be understood to understand the CO/OC imbalance. They are useful in understanding the forces of simultaneity and sequentiality which propel stock prices.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c17ed7424c6e637ad896c0fbaed4baf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The ARK Ferraris are included with the lawn mowers.</p>\n<p>XBI and IBB are weird with their different returns, which is not easily exploitable.</p>\n<p>Buy The Dip Or Pop - CCn1 or CCp1<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ca6dcb7e38682509246a811e20b4b50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Specter Clock</p>\n<p>CCn1 means CC negative returns of the Specter stock from the previous day are analyzed. The Specter stock is SPY. The specter functions something like a clock and provides high dimensional order to the group.</p>\n<p>This happened 105 times in the last 252 days - note end of top line. The bulk of CC profits occurred after this happened. The CC median win rate is 60 instead of 55. Note that this state accounts for more than 100% of OC profits.</p>\n<p><b>CCp1</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c139fe7edf8287f22fb4902d489ee01\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">CC is usually positive of course and it was for 147 of the 252 days. It has been best to buy the pop CO and then get out OC.</p>\n<p>These might be good examples of sequentiality, or not.</p>\n<p>SPY is Positive or Negative CO Today - COp0 or COn0</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e4b10f70d9011fe586ed6d10f3dff28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This is an example of simultaneity. If SPY is up OC 90% of the sector ETFs will go up.</p>\n<p>Simultaneity has weakened during the last segment and probably a little before that as well.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49fd6dcb993413dabcf4039ed0937c37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There definitely isn't the same kind of breadth as in the good old days. That seems at least mildly negative.</p>\n<p><b>COn0</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1da4b68139194cb3c20cbdddbfcddd5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This shows that COn0 weakness in SPY is less of a factor than COp0. Note that if CO is negative, there are better chances for OC to be positive.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14ca38d49389a36c6f2b1c69036409fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"469\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The 36-day view shows the sectors having consensus on SPY down moves rather than up moves lately. There has been no lack of buyers OC.</p>\n<p>Essentially, this type of analysis adds a concrete framework that shows a pretty subtle picture of market state. It confirms a vague feeling many have noticed that things are changing.</p>\n<p>I doubt that mechanical CO playing is ready for prime time just yet. Certainly the CC/CO binary results above need to be better understood. Mostly, I think the analytical framework presented here is quite powerful and worth continued development.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ARK: Cathie Wood And The Exquisite Art Of Tail Gunning</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nARK: Cathie Wood And The Exquisite Art Of Tail Gunning\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 11:16 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434708-ark-cathie-wood-and-tail-gunning><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nARK Active ETFs are worth the management fee.\nStructured Lookback is introduced.\nTails are shown to have a logical structure and consistent patterns.\nThe concepts of Simultaneity and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434708-ark-cathie-wood-and-tail-gunning\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARKO":"ARKO Corp","ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF","ARKR":"Ark Restaurants Corp","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434708-ark-cathie-wood-and-tail-gunning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164323104","content_text":"Summary\n\nARK Active ETFs are worth the management fee.\nStructured Lookback is introduced.\nTails are shown to have a logical structure and consistent patterns.\nThe concepts of Simultaneity and Sequentiality are introduced.\nCO/OC directional differences are important indicators that are much more useful than two-dimensional measures like standard deviation.\n\nphongphan5922/iStock via Getty Images\nThe Legend of Cathie Wood and Ark Active\n\n Beatrix Kiddo: I am proficient in Tiger Crane style and more than proficient in the exquisite art of the samurai sword.\n\n\nKill Bill Vol 2 - The Cruel Tutelage of Pai Mei\n\nThere is no question that Cathie Wood will be elected to the Stock Picker Hall of Fame on the first year of eligibility. The last person achieving that honor was Peter Lynch.\nArk Active ETFs weren't really on my radar until after Trading Edge was published on June 1. At some point, I planned to make that article more about equity groups instead of ETFs, specifically biotech. Eventually the plan changed because that seemed premature.\nAnother reason for my lack of attention is that I usually look for issues with at least 1500 days of price history and the four horsemen of Ark Active passed that milestone less than 200 trade days ago.\nSome commentators have mentioned recent negative return issues with ARKG, noting that the natives are getting restless. The first argument has some merit and touches on technical details that will affect the entire market. But, call me a romantic, I'm OK with cutting ARK a little slack here.\nTail Gunning\nTail is a statistical term related to data distribution. When data points are plotted, a bell shaped curve forms and the unusual results on either side of the curve are the tails. If the distribution is consistent with the ideal bell pattern, it is considered normal. Results of many coin flips produce anormal distribution, stock returns do not.\nThis implies that probabilities based on normal distributions are accurate while non-normal distribution probabilities are not. This is a serious problem for the academic discipline of Finance as not understanding probabilities suggests that it cannot offer a practical methodology to mitigate risk.\nIn this article, I will try to show that Ark Active returns are highly dependent on exploiting extreme tail activity. Hence the term tail gunning. Surprisingly, tail activity is more structured than one might initially think, so this may have some theoretical importance.\nARK Active has been quite good over many years at staying on the wild side.\nThe Legend of Data Manipulation\nModern stock exchanges and casinos both appeared in the first part of the 17th century, not long after the modern rules of chess were established. Academic disciplines relevant to understanding these innovations such as calculus, linear algebra, statistics, quantum mechanics etc. slowly developed over the next 400 years.\nThe revolutionary implications of data science have not yet been fully appreciated. Practical skill in data manipulation more than compensates for lack of formal academic knowledge in any of the other disciplines. A goal of my work is to demonstrate the soundness of this view.\nA trained practitioner of statistical finance won't approach the stock return problem through data manipulation. No doubt, data manipulation is my hammer, so everything else looks like a nail.\nMajor weaknesses in the academic understanding of stuff in general include:\n\nTime\nHigh dimensionality\n\nVolatility is a function of time, claims by some financial sages that they understand volatility are prima facie absurd. Academic deficiencies can be exploited by competent users of computer power.\nIn this article, I'll discuss how to set up and analyze market data, with attention given to the superb performance of the ARK Active ETFs.\nPrice History Data\n\nThe analysis presented here, only considers the date, open and close. Financial statisticians generally consider daily open, high, and low numbers to be noise. Essentially, that is an admission of the limitations of their analytical framework.\nLooking at one stock at a time is wrong on many different levels. It is absolutely critical to examine groups of stocks.\nA mechanism is needed to produce historical daily prices for many different stocks. Prices must be adjusted for dividends and splits. The data should be stored in Excel csv workbooks where the workbook and worksheet names are the stock symbol.\nDatabases are inappropriate for historical price analysis. Rebuilding the data at least daily from scratch is quick and eliminates many possible points of failure.\nIt is best to solve the data problem by paying for a reliable delivery method like Norgate. Everyone who does this type of work, initially spends a lot of time figuring out how to get prices for free. I did that for about 15 years. It is good to build up the skill and understanding, but eventually the cost of inefficient use of time is substantial.\nData Transformation - Natural Log Returns\n\nThe per share price of a stock has absolutely no rational analytical relevance, assuming the investor has at least enough money to buy one share.\nThe human mind can deal with a limited number of things at once, and with stock groups, price is too much detail. Data transformation is a methodology to remove that complexity. Here, daily prices are transformed to a return stream. That makes it easy to analyze even large groups of equities.\nNatural logs are the correct way to store a return stream, unless you are in a contest to find an inferior solution.\nThe simple calculations below need to be done for each date for each stock in the group being analyzed. It only takes a few minutes on an 8th generation i7 Windows PC to do this for hundreds of stocks containing thousands of days of price history.\nUsing 3/16 in the table above as an example:\n\nCC(Close to Close) = natural log of 3/16 Close / 3/15 Close = nl(394.62/395.12) = -0.0013.\nCO(Close to Open) = natural log of 3/16 Open / 3/15 Close = nl(395.77/395.12) = 0.0017.\nOC(Open to Close) = natural log of 3/16 Close / 3/16 Open = nl(394.62/395.77) = -0.0029.\n\nThe bCC/bCO/bOC columns are binary answers to the question of whether the excursion was positive (1 = positive 0 = not positive). It is quite useful to answer questions before they are asked. This same technique is used to encode strategies into a return stream.\nI specialize in low level stuff. For example, with the binary codes:\n\nIf bCO = 1 and bOC = 1 Then bCC = 1\nIf bCO = 0 and bOC = 0 Then bCC = 0\notherwise, you have to check bCC.\n\nProbably, most people wouldn't spend months analyzing the implications of that. I'm making good progress but still not finished. xSig, discussed below is related to that analysis. The issue is that if bCC = 4, bCO = 2, and bOC = 1 to create an Octal number; 3 and 4 can't happen.\n1,400-Day Structured Lookback\nCC1400 = CO1400 + OC1400\n$CC1400 = $CO1400 * $OC1400\nIn my Trading Edge article, CC1400 was called tCC.\nCO/OC Imbalance\nThe CO state is clearly dominant over OC. Trading Edge even suggested this may be a permanent market feature. It is somewhat heretical to even whisper of such things. If someone refutes that, I promise not to get mad.\nTrading Edge considered the 3x Bulls to be the most obvious way to exploit the CO edge. ARK Active smokes the leveraged financially engineered abominations.\nStructured Lookback Design\n\nI introduced date yrmolation as a concept in my Kabbalah articlein January. Perhaps structured lookback is a better term, if only because it has more vowels. The idea is to provide a logical methodology for creating segments of sequential time.\nThe day is the standard market unit of time. The traditional day/week/month/year construct does not get us closer to a suitable lookback solution, and mostly just confuses the issue. Generally, one doesn't solve a problem by adding needless complexity.\nEvery total time frame of n days, is broken into 3 consecutive periods. The first period is 1/7 the total period, the second 2/7, and the third 4/7. I worked on this backwards of course, so:\n\nx[1] = 200\nx[2] = x[1] * 2 = 400\nx[3] = x[1] * 4 = 800\nx[0] = Total days = 200 + 400 + 800 = 1400\n\nAnother time concept is iteration. The study is labeled 200i0. i0 means iteration 0. An i1 study implies the 1400 days before 11/13/15.\nxSig logic.There are three hex codes after the x. The bit values go:\n\n8 = xx1400\n4 = xx200\n2 = xx400\n1 = xx800\n\nxFF2 appears most often in the table. This means:\n\nFirst/F - All structured CC periods have positive returns.\nSecond/F - All Structured CO periods have positive returns.\nThird/2 - All OC periods except OC400 have losses.\n\nWin Rate\nThis is another critically important metric that virtually nobody looks at. In the table, the differences between CO and OC win rates are stunning.\n400-Day Segment Detail\n\nThe 400-day segment showed the best numbers for OC so it is worth looking at. All four of the time segments display simultaneously on an HD monitor; the challenge writing about them is mostly how to cut up the information for the article format. The win percentages for OC are notably higher than those seen on the 1400 day study. ARKW performs respectably here, both CO and OC, but even in the best OC environment, with the most favorable ETF, CO is not worse.\nARKG\nARKG performs better CO than any of the 3x Bulls CC or CO. ARK win rates are all at least 62% CO, much better than the bulls. Win rates OC are much worse. Obviously, with the strategy of playing CO, ideally we want to see all positive returns during CO and all the negative returns during OC.\nPerformance Graphs\n\nSam: I never walk into a place I don't know how to walk out of.\n\n\nRonin\n\nI can see how the recent sharp excursion down to about the 38.2 fib line might freak out some of the CC players, especially those who bought near the top. Personally, I'm afraid of parabolic heights, so it is difficult for me to visualize the thought process of the players who were buying at triple digits. Guess that is why I'll never be rich.\nAfter detailed poring over the entrails and consulting entities whose names are best left unspoken, I think holding any of the ARK Active puppies CO is worth serious consideration.\nI was really impressed by ARK's stock selection results and watched a recent interview of Cathie, where she was confident of the funds performing at the historical pace. Needless to say, I've been curious if she knows about the CO/OC imbalance where a CO player could theoretically beat buy and hold by about a factor of 10.\nFinding Biotech Tail\nVirtually all Biotechs are part of the tail when considered with the stock universe, so all one needs is a list of suitable candidates.\nBiotech and Semiconductors are the two industries with the most favorable positive CO vs OC characteristics based on my research. Energy is also quite good, but I haven't looked at that sector closely. Small caps are also consistently favorable.\nBiotech is a bit more persistent and obvious. An ETF performs at some sort of median to the characteristics of the group it is composed of, but ETF numbers pretty much precisely reflect the characteristics of the entire group.\n81 biotech stocks with average daily volume greater than 300K, and current price greater than $10 were assembled. The top stocks in CC, CO, and OC will be shown below:\nTop Biotech CCTop BioTech COTop Biotech OC and Median\n\nThese are just overwhelming numbers arguing for CO. A random pick in this universe is much more likely to be profitable CO than anywhere else and that profit is much more likely to exceed CC. The win rates are lower than seen in most sectors. In general, this type of analysis is a fertile avenue for research.\nCO/OC or Standard Deviation\nThe tendency of stocks to move in opposite directions CO and OC can be measured as has been shown here. These movements appear to be quite persistent and consistent in direction over time. The investor gains important and usable information by studying these structures, as opposed to standard deviation.\nStandard deviation only measures CC and ignores violent movements during the day. A year is usually considered the proper standard deviation sample, mostly because any other length is equally worthless.\nRecent Action\nCO has not been a great performer lately. I've been noting that on my website since at least March I think. The more interesting thing is watching things unfold with a decent toolset and trying to figure out what is happening.\n252-Day Structured Lookback\n\nI'll stick with natural log results only in this pass. A natural log of 0.69 is doubling your money. 0.72 for ARKG is CV$1 2.06. All of the puppies at least tripled CO except for ARKW. Not bad for a year. Note the CO win rate.\nxSig is weaker than long term as xFF is no longer showing. As time ranges get longer, xFF gets more common.\n\nI guess the CC players got annoyed that things were better at this end point than 6/11/21. CO win rates are about the best I've ever seen.\n\nWin rates seriously dropped from the 144 day segment. The Biotech correction started February 9th.\n\nThe ARKG pattern starts with a double top. LABU and XBI made a single top, with a nice dark cloud cover candle that worked out for a change. In some parallel universes, they always work.\n\nThe black candles show the day traders getting slapped. No big deal for CO players. I'm happy I wasn't playing these guys during this period; no question I would have botched things up.\n\nThe 36-day shows weakness coming into CO and a little strength in OC at least for ARKG. Note the two winning percentages are the same. This is less trivial than it appears as that situation also exists in the Biotechs.\n\n\nThe recent low at 72.87 was not only the important ludicrously long term 38.2 fib line but the 52 week moving average, and on the other side of the chasm there is obvious support around 72. I don't see how that can be arranged to spell sell. Note the pop we are seeing off the low is coming on OC strength.\nThe plain meaning of the weekly chart is bullish: Heat sensitive longs from the congestion period, put stops in below the 52 week SMA that were triggered during the week of May 10. That is shown by the head fake and bottoming tail. Even a retest of the low would probably not be too bad, but hopefully that won't part of the near term conversation. The poke above the 13-week SMA is encouraging, a move above 93 doesn't seem excessively optimistic.\nIs The 252-Day Structured Lookback Kosher?\n252 market days is as close to an exact calendar year as you can get. 252 / 7 = 36. Therefore we can say that a market year is divided into 7 periods of 36 days. In this scheme, every day is the end of a year.\nWithGematria, the number 36 is 2 * 18. 18 = Life. 36 is comprised of the letters Lamed Vav, which correspond to theTzadikimNistarim, the 36 hidden righteous ones who support the world in every generation.\nSomehow, that gives me a little confidence that the structured lookback solution isn't completely ridiculous. It is definitely kosher.\nSimultaneity and Sequentiality\n\n Adm Mark Turso USN Ret: You were given a Ferrari and your people treated it like a lawnmower.\n\n\nThe Bourne Legacy\n\nEarlier, I mentioned the binary codes bCC, bCO, and bOC. These probably have to be understood to understand the CO/OC imbalance. They are useful in understanding the forces of simultaneity and sequentiality which propel stock prices.\n\nThe ARK Ferraris are included with the lawn mowers.\nXBI and IBB are weird with their different returns, which is not easily exploitable.\nBuy The Dip Or Pop - CCn1 or CCp1The Specter Clock\nCCn1 means CC negative returns of the Specter stock from the previous day are analyzed. The Specter stock is SPY. The specter functions something like a clock and provides high dimensional order to the group.\nThis happened 105 times in the last 252 days - note end of top line. The bulk of CC profits occurred after this happened. The CC median win rate is 60 instead of 55. Note that this state accounts for more than 100% of OC profits.\nCCp1\nCC is usually positive of course and it was for 147 of the 252 days. It has been best to buy the pop CO and then get out OC.\nThese might be good examples of sequentiality, or not.\nSPY is Positive or Negative CO Today - COp0 or COn0\n\nThis is an example of simultaneity. If SPY is up OC 90% of the sector ETFs will go up.\nSimultaneity has weakened during the last segment and probably a little before that as well.\nThere definitely isn't the same kind of breadth as in the good old days. That seems at least mildly negative.\nCOn0\nThis shows that COn0 weakness in SPY is less of a factor than COp0. Note that if CO is negative, there are better chances for OC to be positive.\n\nThe 36-day view shows the sectors having consensus on SPY down moves rather than up moves lately. There has been no lack of buyers OC.\nEssentially, this type of analysis adds a concrete framework that shows a pretty subtle picture of market state. It confirms a vague feeling many have noticed that things are changing.\nI doubt that mechanical CO playing is ready for prime time just yet. Certainly the CC/CO binary results above need to be better understood. Mostly, I think the analytical framework presented here is quite powerful and worth continued development.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ARKO":0.9,"ARKQ":0.9,"ARKR":0.9,"ARKF":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187902801,"gmtCreate":1623733104903,"gmtModify":1704209898474,"author":{"id":"3583400770236709","authorId":"3583400770236709","name":"JasonXZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583400770236709","authorIdStr":"3583400770236709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187902801","repostId":"2143178756","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187075180,"gmtCreate":1623732677540,"gmtModify":1704209885779,"author":{"id":"3583400770236709","authorId":"3583400770236709","name":"JasonXZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3583400770236709","authorIdStr":"3583400770236709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Tiger trade event","listText":"Tiger trade event","text":"Tiger trade event","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/187075180","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}