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小熊熊小

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- 小熊熊小小熊熊小
  ·2021-07-01
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  Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.
  因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。背景简介：独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月
  Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.
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- 小熊熊小小熊熊小
  ·2021-06-27
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  The policy environment in the second half of the year may be conducive to the strengthening of A-shares.
  再过4天，今年上半年就将过去了，下周四将迎来建党百年大庆。也有人担心利好兑现后市场见顶。为此，中泰总量团队周末讨论会就下半年我国的利率走势及财政政策展开讨论，分析中美货币政策的走向、财政支出的节奏对资
  The policy environment in the second half of the year may be conducive to the strengthening of A-shares.
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- 小熊熊小小熊熊小
  ·2021-06-27
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- 小熊熊小小熊熊小
  ·2021-06-24
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- 小熊熊小小熊熊小
  ·2021-06-23
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10:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Reminder: US stocks will be closed on July 5th due to the US Independence Day holiday.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168133884","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月","content":"<p><b>Due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday, July 5, and will resume trading on Tuesday, July 6.</b></p><p>Trading in Hong Kong, A-shares, UK, Macau, and Singapore stock markets will continue as usual.</p><p><b>Background Introduction:</b></p><p><b>Independence Day</b>It is a statutory national holiday in the United States, celebrated annually on July 4th to commemorate the formal adoption of the Declaration of Independence by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia on July 4, 1776. Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. 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Independence Day in the United States is as solemn as religious and folk holidays. Before the holiday, people clean their yards, decorate their homes, and hang the national flag.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f87ddb03d9b4d56cf0dce9450e742016\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"417\"></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21dd6adec6b29203b5bca22347419441","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168133884","content_text":"因美国独立日假期，7月5日（周一）美股休市一日，7月6日（周二）起恢复交易。\n港股、A股、英股、澳股、新加坡股市照常交易。\n背景简介：\n独立日是美国法定国庆日，日期为每年7月4日，以纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议在费城正式通过《独立宣言》。美国的独立日，与宗教、民俗节日一样隆重，老百姓在节日前清洁院落，装饰家居，悬挂国旗。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124892012,"gmtCreate":1624757345936,"gmtModify":1703844465440,"author":{"id":"3584931832632836","authorId":"3584931832632836","name":"小熊熊小","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a15926f1d1c1c883fe5266ef9a5bfe83","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584931832632836","idStr":"3584931832632836"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/124892012","repostId":"1149610930","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149610930","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"经济-金融-投资","home_visible":1,"media_name":"李迅雷金融与投资","id":"71","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1"},"pubTimestamp":1624753882,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1149610930?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"The policy environment in the second half of the year may be conducive to the strengthening of A-shares.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149610930","media":"李迅雷金融与投资","summary":"再过4天，今年上半年就将过去了，下周四将迎来建党百年大庆。也有人担心利好兑现后市场见顶。为此，中泰总量团队周末讨论会就下半年我国的利率走势及财政政策展开讨论，分析中美货币政策的走向、财政支出的节奏对资","content":"<p><b>In four days, the first half of this year will be over, and next Thursday will mark the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. Some people worry that the market will peak after the positive news materializes. To this end, the Chinese and Thai teams held a weekend discussion on my country's interest rate trends and fiscal policies in the second half of the year, analyzing the impact of Chinese and American monetary policies and the pace of fiscal spending on the capital market.</b></p><p><b>How to view the trend of interest rates in the second half of the year and in the long term?</b></p><p><b>Chen Xing, Chief Executive of Zhongtai Macro</b>It is believed that interest rates in the second half of the year may show a trend of \"rising first and then falling\", with a greater risk of rising interest rates in the short term, while the downward trend will be smoother after the adjustment. For asset allocation, the bond market may have a more prominent advantage, the equity market presents structural opportunities, while the commodity market, dragged down by declining prices, performed worse than in the first half of the year.</p><p>Whether from the perspective of economic growth or inflation, the domestic environment in the second half of the year is conducive to a decline in interest rates. First, the pressure on economic growth will gradually become apparent. Since the pandemic, the two most prominent aspects of the global economic cycle have been US consumption and China's exports. US personal consumption expenditure has contributed far more to post-pandemic economic growth than private investment, net exports, and government spending, which corresponds to the high prosperity of my country's exports.<b>Of the 12 percentage points of my country's export growth in the second half of last year, more than 4 percentage points were driven by exports to the United States.</b>。</p><p>With the withdrawal of US subsidies, the loss of residents' real income due to high inflation, and changes in consumption structure, the driving force of US consumption on my country's exports will tend to weaken. Although domestic consumption and manufacturing investment growth will recover, the endogenous driving force will not be as strong as the exogenous driving force stimulated by subsidies.</p><p>Secondly, in terms of inflation, the situation in China in the second half of the year is much easier than in the first half. The global pandemic has peaked and subsided, and domestic measures to \"ensure supply and stabilize prices\" have led to a return to demand-driven commodity pricing. The weak economic recovery means that most industrial product prices do not have the basis for sustained increases. In addition, the pressure on PPI growth caused by the base effect tends to ease in the second half of the year. The efficiency of transmitting PPI growth to CPI growth in this round is also not high, and inflationary pressures will ease in the second half of the year. However, we also need to be aware of the disturbances caused by short-term factors. There are still two risks that are difficult to eliminate: First, the US monetary policy is trending towards a shift. Although my country's bond market yield is fundamentally determined by the domestic environment, it will also be affected by changes in the external environment. During the last TAPER period, my country's interest rate level was driven up. Secondly, the supply shock brought about by concentrated fiscal financing in the second half of the year, therefore<b>The risk of rising interest rates in the short term is greater.</b></p><p><b>Yang Chang, Chief of China-Thailand Policy</b>The reasons why long-term bond yields may be slowly declining are explained: the judgment on long-term bond yields is still based on the judgment on fundamentals. The economy is still recovering, but its momentum is weakening, and downward pressure may arise in the future. From the production perspective, it is approaching normal; From the demand side, investment growth slowed down month-on-month; Consumption has a certain degree of Export sustainability may face pressure.</p><p><b>Zhou Yue, Chief Fixed Income Officer of</b>It is believed that the interest rate bond market had two characteristics in the first half of the year: first, low interest rate volatility. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fluctuated basically around the central level of 3.17% ± 10 basis points. The low volatility stems from three factors: From a fundamental perspective, the economy has slowed down after the \"new normal,\" and the volatility of the economic cycle has weakened; Monetary policy is gradually shifting from a quantitative approach to a structural one, and its style is changing from a large-scale approach to fine-tuning and pre-adjustment. In terms of funding, the anchoring role of policy interest rates is constantly increasing.</p><p>Second, the funding situation becomes the dominant factor. Looking at the several waves of yields in the first half of the year, the direction of changes in the main maturity Treasury Bond yields in each stage was consistent, but the changes in short-term bonds were significantly greater than in the long-term, indicating that the influence of fundamentals was weakening, and the liquidity situation was the dominant factor in the interest rate trend in the first half of the year.</p><p>Regarding the monetary and credit environment, the economic recovery is uneven and the foundation is unstable, making a tightening of monetary policy unlikely. However, stabilizing leverage and controlling the real estate market constrain the room for easing, and monetary policy is expected to be \"neither tight nor loose\". The period of the fastest credit contraction this year is nearing its end, and the growth rate of social financing is expected to continue to decline slightly in the third quarter, but is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Looking at the central level of the overall funding rate and the current 10-year Treasury Bond yield, the interest rate spread is highly protective, and there is limited room for upward adjustment in yields. However, the possibility of a significant weakening in fundamentals this year forcing monetary policy to shift towards easing is low, so signs of a turning point for bear and bull markets are not yet obvious. In the second half of the year, with \"slowing economic recovery, prudent monetary policy, and easing of tight credit\", yields are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range.</p><p><b>Xiao Yu, analyst at Zhongtai Fixed Income</b>It is believed that the tight credit pressure has eased significantly. The growth rate of social financing slowed sharply from January to May, partly due to the high base in the same period last year, and partly due to the significant contraction of the credit environment. Unlike the deleveraging in 2017-2018, this year, under the tone of \"stabilizing leverage,\" the decline in social financing is mainly due to structural factors. Compared to the same period last year, RMB loans remained basically unchanged, with the main items showing less year-on-year growth being trust loans, corporate bonds, and government bonds. Given that fixed asset investment is still recovering, the loan demand index is at a high level, and nominal loan interest rates are facing upward pressure, the endogenous financing demand of the real economy has not declined significantly. Based on tracking and forecasting of major sub-items, it is judged that the period of fastest credit contraction this year is nearing its end. Although the growth rate of social financing continued to decline slightly in the third quarter, it is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Social financing growth is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year (%)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50ae67e84a4953fe44477f553181b10c\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Wind,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>Institute</p><p><b>Tang Jun, Chief Engineer of Zhongtai Financial</b>It is believed that there is not much room for interest rates in Treasury Bond to rise or fall in the second half of the year. Since commercial banks are the largest holders of Treasury Bond in my country, looking at changes in the liability costs of commercial banks and their demand for Treasury Bond allocation may provide a new perspective. Interbank interest rates, the strength of regulations on idle arbitrage between financial institutions, and the new asset management regulations prohibiting the wealth management fund pool model will all affect the funding costs for commercial banks to allocate Treasury Bond.</p><p>Looking at them separately, interbank funding rates are mainly a result of the central bank's regulation, and the central bank's monetary policy is likely to remain relatively stable in the second half of the year. According to the indicators of shorting capital constructed by Zhongtai Clock, the regulation of idle capital arbitrage among financial institutions has become significantly stricter since April 2020.<b>The current situation remains relatively tight, which is not conducive to a decline in Treasury Bond interest rates.</b>。 The ban on the wealth management fund pool model in the new asset management regulations will also increase the cost of wealth management funds. For example, under the capital pool model, banks can rollingly issue short-term, low-cost products such as 7 days and 15 days, and allocate a certain proportion of long-term Treasury Bond through maturity mismatch. Moreover, under the capital pool model, large capital pools always need to set aside a portion of funds to deal with the liquidity risks of rolling issuance. This portion of money often becomes the lender of overnight funds, providing cheap funds to small and medium-sized financial institutions, which is conducive to their increased leverage to allocate interest rate bonds.</p><p><b>Li<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Xunlei</a></b>He expressed a slightly different view from the above: in 2017, he specifically studied the relationship between interest rates and economic growth. It was found that the 10-year Treasury Bond yields in the United States, Japan, Europe, and India are quite close to their nominal GDP growth rates, especially in the United States, where the 10-year Treasury Bond yield and nominal GDP growth rate are basically in line. The yield on China's 10-year Treasury Bond is very stable in the long run.<b>In 2017, it was approximately 3.6-3.7%.</b>This is far lower than China's nominal GDP growth rate, and the economic growth rate has now slowed down significantly, but the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond is still fluctuating in both directions around 3.17%.</p><p>Relationship between China's 10-year Treasury Bond yield and nominal GDP</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3519f2e9cd98948a6420438919d0e34f\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>Relationship between US 10-year Treasury Bond yield and nominal GDP</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c122c37781e12a425e16ee1677a12f3\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>This shows that China's long-term interest rate level is actually relatively low. The reason everyone is complaining about the high cost of financing is because my country's market economy is still immature, the credit environment needs improvement, and...<b>Credit-backed enterprises, such as central state-owned enterprises, have very low financing costs.</b></p><p><b>Long-term low interest rates are the main reason for high domestic asset prices and the formation of a \"rigid bubble\".</b>。 For example, domestic housing prices are far higher than international levels, both in terms of rent-to-price ratio and price-to-income ratio. Similarly, many A-shares containing H shares are basically twice or more expensive than their H shares, while interest rates in the Hong Kong market are much lower than in the mainland.</p><p>So, what are the reasons for the consistently low level of long-term interest rates in China? Interest rates are the price of funds and are affected by the supply and demand of funds. The domestic capital supply is still enormous.<b>In order to stabilize growth, the central bank, the Ministry of Finance, the four major banks, and state-owned enterprises have been continuously implementing or participating in counter-cyclical policies. As a result, the growth rate of M2 over the past 20 years has far exceeded the growth rate of nominal GDP.</b></p><p>Besides policy factors, another reason is the rise in the household savings rate after 2000, which is related to residents reducing their consumption rate and large-scale allocation of residential and other real estate. The household savings rate was at its lowest point in 1999,<b>It rose from 27.63% in 1999 to 42.1% in 2010, an increase of 14.5 percentage points.</b>Although my country's household savings rate had dropped to 34.8% by 2018, it was still far higher than the general level of developed countries.</p><p>China's residents' consumption rate and savings rate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfa1dc9adb1c5b9a4f0f259763728e1\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>Assuming all prerequisites remain unchanged, declining interest rates are indeed a major trend as economic growth slows. However, as the population ages and the savings rate continues to decline, the proportion of consumption increases while the proportion of investment decreases, and the inflation rate rebounds, will the nominal interest rate rise?</p><p><b>From the perspective of fiscal revenue and expenditure—</b></p><p><b>Policy reform direction and capital market investment opportunities</b></p><p><b>Xiao Yu</b>It is believed that the effect of \"fiscal postponement\" in the second half of the year may be lower than expected. From January to May, the two-year compound annual growth rate of infrastructure investment was only 3.3%, lower than the level for the whole of 2020 (3.4%). The sluggish recovery in infrastructure investment is relatively consistent with the performance of fiscal expenditure. From January to May, broad fiscal expenditure increased by only 0.8%, and the dynamic deficit ratio further declined, which is already lower than the level of the same period in 2019. Infrastructure investment is likely to rebound slightly in the second half of the year as the issuance of new special-purpose bonds accelerates and budget expenditures increase. But,<b>The stimulating effect of \"fiscal postponement\" may be limited.</b>。 First, affected by the release of the effects of the new tax cuts and the relatively high base in the same period in the second half of last year, the annual revenue growth rate may show a high trend at the beginning and a low trend at the end, and the overall fiscal revenue and expenditure are in a tight balance, which restricts the room for improvement. Second, against the backdrop of strictly controlling local debt risks, reducing government department leverage, and contracting new financing from local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), local governments' willingness and ability to invest in infrastructure remain constrained.</p><p>Fiscal expenditure budget progress was slow from January to May (%)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e24e7f359e06862c0f458f103b74e5\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Yang Chang</b>It is believed that the \"counter-cyclical\" adjustment stance is even more pronounced in fiscal policy. With the urban surveyed unemployment rate further declining and the economy still in the process of recovery, excessive fiscal policy may actually be too strong. In the second half of the year, if the economy has basically peaked, but if the economy declines or the downward pressure is too great, there is still room for fiscal policy to take effect. This will prevent the slope of economic downturn from being too steep.</p><p><b>Xu Chi, Sino-Thai strategist</b>It is believed that fiscal policy is the most important benchmark for predicting policy direction. Starting this year, under three major pressures, my country's fiscal pressure may rise rapidly in the future: First, the largest \"baby boom\" in my country's history (1962-1973) is gradually entering its retirement peak, which means...<b>In the future, nearly 30 million people will go from taxpayers to retirees requiring financial support every year, and this will last for more than ten years.</b>； Second, with the intensification of East-West rivalry and confrontation, military, diplomatic, and technological investment may spiral upward. Third, although \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" has become a national policy, under the existing economy...<b>Local government reliance on land revenue has risen for five consecutive years, currently exceeding 84%.</b>。 The so-called \"taking the right path with fewer choices\" and the \"hard constraints\" of increasing fiscal revenue and expenditure pressure mean that the space and direction available for policy and reform are actually relatively limited and predictable:</p><p>1) Fiscal policy may be relatively stronger in the second half of the year: With government bond issuance significantly lower than expected in the first half of the year, the concentrated \"bidding, auction and listing\" of land supported the \"six guarantees\" of local governments in the first half of the year. It is expected that the pace of fiscal bond issuance may accelerate in the second half of the year. With liquidity unlikely to be further eased, it is expected that interest rates will be difficult to decline further at least in the third quarter.</p><p>2) Income distribution reform under the concept of \"common prosperity\": Compared with developed countries such as the United States, the tax contribution of the top 1% of my country's wealthy is significantly lower: in the United States, personal income tax accounts for 55% of total government tax revenue.<b>The top 1% of households contribute 17% of tax revenue, but pay 25% of federal income tax.</b>； In my country, individual income tax accounts for only 7.2% of tax revenue, and the lack of an \"asset tax\" related to the wealthy is the most important reason for this difference. With increasing pressure on fiscal revenue and expenditure, the wealthy should shoulder more social responsibility.<b>It is expected that the pilot program for property tax and reforms such as postponing the collection of consumption tax may accelerate in the second half of the year, which may cause some fluctuations in luxury goods such as mid-to-high-end liquor.</b></p><p>3) The pressure on social security is increasing. On the one hand, compared with the United States, where the combined proportion of pensions from enterprises and individuals exceeds 90%, the proportion of enterprise annuities and individual commercial pension insurance among the \"three pillars\" of my country's pension system is significantly lower. For example, in 2018, enterprise annuities accounted for only 18% of the total.<b>Only 0.25% of enterprises offer enterprise annuities, accounting for only 2.5% of the total number of people enrolled in basic old-age insurance; Individual commercial pension insurance accounts for only 4% of the total.</b>。 Amid the \"retirement wave,\" it is expected that starting in the second half of this year, the encouragement of enterprises and individuals to increase their pension contribution ratios will accelerate, which may further increase the concentration of industry leaders.</p><p>On the other hand, increasing investment returns through the capital market will be an important way to alleviate the pressure on social security, and further increasing the proportion of social security and pension funds entering the market will be an inevitable trend. The recent accelerated implementation of state-owned enterprise reforms such as equity incentives and market capitalization management assessments will also help increase their investment returns. With long-term incremental funds entering the market, undervalued blue-chip stocks such as central state-owned enterprises may usher in a trend opportunity for valuation recovery.</p><p>4) Under the pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure and the intensification of geopolitical confrontation, the urgency of key technologies being independent and controllable and requiring continuous capital investment determines that direct financing through the capital market, rather than traditional fiscal subsidies, will be the main form of developing my country's science and technology industry. Therefore, structurally<b>Guide market funds to allocate more to key technology sectors</b>This may be an important direction for capital market reform, such as the recent intensive launch of the Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 and STAR Market 50 funds. Therefore, key technology sectors such as the Science and Technology Innovation 50, military industry, and semiconductors will be the most important investment themes in the second half of this year and for a longer period to come.</p><p><b>The overall outlook for the A-share market in the second half of the year is positive.</b></p><p><b>β is difficult to predict, α has a greater chance.</b></p><p>Given that interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, monetary policy will remain stable in the second half of the year, and the pace of fiscal spending will accelerate, the stock market should seem more optimistic.</p><p><b>Zhang Han, Financial Engineering Analyst at Zhongtai</b>Through tracking market liquidity, it has been discovered that<b>The issuance scale of public funds has increased from a low of 30 billion yuan per month to the current 80 billion yuan.</b>。 Industrial capital reductions in holdings remain at a high level, with monthly reductions of around 70 billion yuan, indicating a relatively weak pattern of changes in foreign capital. Compared with the beginning of this year, the scale of industrial capital reduction in holdings is not much different, but the scale of fund issuance is significantly smaller. If the scale of public fund issuance can continue to increase, it will bring incremental funds to the market. Furthermore, changes in market sentiment scores can be seen...<b>Market risk appetite has increased, and the market may perform well in the short term.</b></p><p><b>Chen Long, Chief Strategist of China-Thailand</b>It is believed that interest rates are expected to decline further in the second half of the year, given that economic growth may be lower than expected and liquidity may be better than expected. The strength of the US dollar is accompanied by a depreciation trend in the RMB exchange rate. The peak of commodities has passed. The equity market will experience fluctuations in economic growth and liquidity expectations in the second half of the year, with expectations exceeding or falling short of expectations. Therefore, we believe that volatility in the equity market will increase in the second half of the year, and the market trend will remain structural.<b>Beta opportunities are difficult to seize; it is recommended to pay more attention to</b>。</p><p>Therefore, in terms of industry allocation, (1) focus on new energy and new energy vehicles, technology manufacturing (semiconductors, HarmonyOS, consumer electronics), military industry, etc., which have stable performance, accelerated profit increases, and maintain high prosperity in the industry; The consumer sector is paying more attention to new consumption. At the same time, we should be wary of the risk of a decline in the interim results of some machinery industries, light industry, and some food and beverage companies.</p><p><b>Tang Army</b>It is believed that the current regulatory situation has an adverse impact on wealth management funds and small and medium-sized financial institutions increasing leverage to allocate interest rate bonds, which may affect the decline of interest rates. However, after the rise in Treasury Bond interest rates last year and the rapid decline in the yields of bank wealth management products, the current 10-year Treasury Bond yield is almost the same as the yields of wealth management products of major state-owned banks (around 3.2%-3.3%). This may mean that the relative attractiveness of Treasury Bond will gradually increase, and the room for yield to rise is also very small.</p><p>The view that maintaining inflation may exceed expectations, in addition to the previously mentioned impact of the pandemic on supply and demand, the impact of policy interventions such as trade protectionism and reducing foreign dependence on global supply chains will also bring about a chain reaction of pushing up costs. In the past, during the long period of globalization and free trade, supply chains and logistics networks have formed a relatively stable ecosystem with optimized costs. However, the impact of the pandemic on the supply chain and human intervention not only led to an increase in direct procurement costs, but also disrupted the original \"optimal path\" of the logistics network, resulting in a significant increase in demand for transportation capacity and insufficient transportation capacity. For example, in some places, shipping containers are extremely difficult to obtain, while in other places, a large number of empty containers are piling up, which is disrupting the original logistics ecosystem. For many commodities, the main places of production and consumption are far apart, and freight costs may account for more than half of the cost.<b>It is recommended to allocate assets in a relatively balanced manner, with a slight overweight allocation to commodities that benefit from inflation.</b></p><p><b>Observing the allocation value of cyclical stocks from futures contracts</b></p><p><b>Wang Shijin, Sino-Thai strategist</b>Analysis of the maturity structure of futures contracts reveals that when a futures product exhibits a forward upward trend, the corresponding commodity price increase is more sustainable, and the excess returns of the corresponding stocks are also more significant. For mid-to-upstream sectors of a cycle, the probability of a sector rising is higher when there are a large number of futures contracts exhibiting a long-term upward trend. The number of futures exhibiting a bullish structure has decreased in the past period, but there are still many futures exhibiting a bullish structure, and the mid-to-upper reaches of the cycle will remain strong in the short term.</p><p>US monetary policy cycle and US Treasury yield spread performance</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a90cd1f8a2e8bdcec353a0065b58f6d\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>The market appears to have begun trading on tapering QE. The last round of tapering panic occurred in May 2013, when Bernanke proposed to taper the scale of QE in the future. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose by more than 100 basis points in just over two months. Then, in December 2013, when the Federal Reserve began to truly slow down its bond purchases, the long-term yield on US Treasury bonds actually declined. The same thing has happened recently. Although the FOMC meeting statement last week did not mention the issue of tapering QE, the trends of short-term and long-term US Treasury bonds have been completely opposite recently. The spread between 30-year and 5-year US Treasury yields has decreased by 20 basis points in the last 10 trading days.</p><p>This type of selling short and buying long is a common trading behavior in the early stages of a shrinking balance sheet and during the tapering of QE. During the last round of QE tapering, from the beginning of December 2013 to the end of QE at the end of October 2014, the spread between the long and short terms of US Treasury bonds continued to decline. Although many domestic voices are still in the stage of reducing panic, the market seems to be trading for another scenario. The difference is that the last tapering of QE lasted for a year, but the pace of this tapering may be faster, mainly because the economic changes brought about by the impact of the pandemic are different from those brought about by previous credit shocks.</p><p>Leaving aside the supply and demand structure, discussing interest rate trends is purely a matter of guesswork. Recently, more and more macro analysts have begun to pay attention to overseas markets, such as the ON-RRP continuing to reach a record high and the Federal Reserve raising the IOER rate at its interest rate meeting. However, few people have mentioned the recent supply and demand situation of US Treasury bonds, such as the pace of the New York Federal Reserve's recent purchases of Treasury Bond and MBS, and the pace of the US Treasury Department's bond issuance.</p><p>In fact, since April this year,<b>The US Treasury market has consistently experienced bond purchases exceeding bond issuance, which forms the basis for the continued decline in US Treasury yields throughout the second quarter.</b>Secondly, there are factors such as inflation expectations and monetary policy expectations. key reason for the slowdown in US Treasury issuance in the second quarter was the impact of the debt ceiling date at the end of July. The US Treasury's TGA account balance with the Federal Reserve decreased from over $1.1 trillion in early April to $730 billion, and it is expected to decline further before the end of July. This actually increased along with QE.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The size of market reserves, while the ON-RRP continues to reach new highs, means that the market can no longer absorb too many reserves. Recently, the transaction volume has accounted for more than 20% of bank reserves. From this perspective, the situation of excess liquidity will not change much before August, and the upward pressure on interest rates from the supply side may become more prominent afterward.</p><p>Emerging Market Stock Index and the US Dollar Index</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b37fcee8b3ecf9403a44e30544dfbdc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>From a macro-driven perspective,<b>In the second half of the year, we can consider positioning ourselves on the left side to invest</b>。 The discussion at the end of May mentioned that the US dollar is likely to strengthen in the second half of the year, mainly due to two factors: first, as vaccination rates increase, the Federal Reserve will prepare to taper QE; second, the economic growth of other the US Dollar Index member countries is significantly slower than that of the United States. Currently, the US Dollar Index has rebounded somewhat after the FOMC meeting, but it remains more at the expected level. If we refer to the performance of the US dollar during the previous round of QE tapering to the end of QE, the accelerated upward trend in the US Dollar Index began in July 2014, that is, the later stage of QE tapering.</p><p>Overall, as US employment gradually recovers and inflation returns to above the AIT target, it is highly likely that QE will be tapered in the second half of the year, which will help the US Dollar Index strengthen. For the stock market, companies with a high proportion of overseas revenue are worth paying attention to. For example, they performed well in 2019 and 2020, but were greatly affected by exchange losses in 2021, dragging down their performance in sectors such as consumer electronics and raw materials for pharmaceuticals. The macroeconomic environment in the second half of the year may be a plus for these companies.</p><p>The index structure is becoming increasingly healthy, and a breakthrough to the previous high is imminent. In terms of liquidity, fund issuance has rebounded significantly recently. Since June, the scale of newly established equity funds has approached the total for April and May. With the continued significant net inflow of northbound capital and the approaching centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, market sentiment is expected to remain high in the short term. Meanwhile, the index structure has improved significantly compared to the beginning of the year. Unlike the rally in January when a few companies rallied to raise valuations, the number of stocks in the entire market currently exceeding their first-quarter peak is close to 1,200, while another nearly 1,000 stocks are less than 10% from their first-quarter peak, such as the leading stocks in the previous round.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WX\">WuXi AppTec</a>It has recently hit a new high, while representative stocks in other active sectors such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi Green Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Eastmoney</a>With the companies just one step away from their first-quarter high, these companies are more likely to hit new highs under the current sentiment window, and the resilience of these heavyweight stocks also means the resilience of the index.</p><p><b>Stocks Outperform Bonds: Upholding Technological Growth in the A-Share Market</b></p><p><b>Zhang Wenyu, Sino-Thai strategist</b>It is believed that the efficiency of fighting the epidemic is productivity The economic recovery and changes in the macroeconomic policy environment in the second half of the year still require close monitoring of the pace of pandemic control. Vaccination rates are currently diverging across global economies. In terms of vaccination rates, the proportions of people in the UK, the US, and Germany who are fully vaccinated are 46.76%, 44.98%, and 32.24%, respectively, far higher than...<b>3.72% and 0.14% in developing countries such as India and Vietnam, respectively.</b>。 However, vaccination rates in developed economies have declined significantly. Based on current vaccination rates, the U.S. vaccination rate is unlikely to reach the Federal Reserve's 75% target level until the end of the third or beginning of the fourth quarter.</p><p>The proportions of fully vaccinated population in the UK and the US were 46.76% and 44.98%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235afc25c5fb84adbc90634c0d8f8ff3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Ourworldindata, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>Meanwhile, considering that the third quarter is the time when the U.S. fiscal department will suspend all unemployment benefits, the recovery of the U.S. job market may strengthen in the fourth quarter. At that time, the output gap in developed countries such as the United States may begin to be repaired with the recovery of the domestic production supply chain, thereby reducing \"over-reliance\" on Chinese exports. In addition, some of Biden's infrastructure stimulus plans are expected to be implemented, and the expansion of the US fiscal deficit in the second half of the year will also drive the repair of the output gap. In other words, the core driver of the domestic economy this year—strong exports—may face weakening in the fourth quarter.</p><p>The expansion of the US fiscal deficit is expected to drive the repair of the output gap</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ba838570bbff68a84b6dc44e31e414a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: OECD, FRED, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>In terms of domestic economic performance, the Politburo meeting in April pointed out that the economic recovery in the first quarter was uneven, but since the second quarter, the current situation of uneven recovery in manufacturing and consumption has persisted. With the output gap in developed demanding countries such as the United States recovering in the fourth quarter, domestic export momentum has decreased, and the momentum of sustained economic recovery has waned. It may rely more on loose macroeconomic policies to ensure the stability of the economy in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Meanwhile, with the release of domestic signals guiding upstream raw material prices and the emergence of national policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices, the PPI is expected to decline in the second half of the year, and domestic macro liquidity may still maintain a relatively loose monetary environment.</p><p>In summary, before the Federal Reserve officially signaled a tapering of asset purchases in the third quarter, the output gap did not close rapidly, market expectations for inflation declined, and US long-term interest rates remained weak and volatile. Domestic liquidity has slowly shifted in the first half of the year, and economic growth momentum will weaken in the second half. Domestic monetary policy will still maintain relatively loose liquidity, and the equity market may be dominated by structural opportunities in the growth style.</p><p>In terms of asset allocation in the second half of the year, the equity market may outperform the bond market and commodities. With the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the expectation of the implementation of reform policies will increase market risk appetite, and we will stick to emerging sectors such as growth technology. 1) Commodities: The global economic recovery is still underway.<b>Crude oil, energy and chemical stocks priced globally may continue their volatile upward trend.</b>； 2) A-share market: Military, technology stocks and technology sectors such as the STAR Market 50 are more likely to enjoy valuation repair and policy premiums. The current valuations of the military, communications, computer and electronics sectors are at the historical percentiles of 32.47%, 21.18%, 53.82% and 31.76% over the past decade, respectively, indicating that there is still room for improvement in overall valuations. In addition, structural opportunities in core technologies supported by strong performance, such as new energy, semiconductors, and new materials, will also become prominent.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The policy environment in the second half of the year may be conducive to the strengthening of A-shares.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe policy environment in the second half of the year may be conducive to the strengthening of A-shares.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/71\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb163b204aa14697bd7477df15b8b6b1);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">李迅雷金融与投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-27 08:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>In four days, the first half of this year will be over, and next Thursday will mark the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. Some people worry that the market will peak after the positive news materializes. To this end, the Chinese and Thai teams held a weekend discussion on my country's interest rate trends and fiscal policies in the second half of the year, analyzing the impact of Chinese and American monetary policies and the pace of fiscal spending on the capital market.</b></p><p><b>How to view the trend of interest rates in the second half of the year and in the long term?</b></p><p><b>Chen Xing, Chief Executive of Zhongtai Macro</b>It is believed that interest rates in the second half of the year may show a trend of \"rising first and then falling\", with a greater risk of rising interest rates in the short term, while the downward trend will be smoother after the adjustment. For asset allocation, the bond market may have a more prominent advantage, the equity market presents structural opportunities, while the commodity market, dragged down by declining prices, performed worse than in the first half of the year.</p><p>Whether from the perspective of economic growth or inflation, the domestic environment in the second half of the year is conducive to a decline in interest rates. First, the pressure on economic growth will gradually become apparent. Since the pandemic, the two most prominent aspects of the global economic cycle have been US consumption and China's exports. US personal consumption expenditure has contributed far more to post-pandemic economic growth than private investment, net exports, and government spending, which corresponds to the high prosperity of my country's exports.<b>Of the 12 percentage points of my country's export growth in the second half of last year, more than 4 percentage points were driven by exports to the United States.</b>。</p><p>With the withdrawal of US subsidies, the loss of residents' real income due to high inflation, and changes in consumption structure, the driving force of US consumption on my country's exports will tend to weaken. Although domestic consumption and manufacturing investment growth will recover, the endogenous driving force will not be as strong as the exogenous driving force stimulated by subsidies.</p><p>Secondly, in terms of inflation, the situation in China in the second half of the year is much easier than in the first half. The global pandemic has peaked and subsided, and domestic measures to \"ensure supply and stabilize prices\" have led to a return to demand-driven commodity pricing. The weak economic recovery means that most industrial product prices do not have the basis for sustained increases. In addition, the pressure on PPI growth caused by the base effect tends to ease in the second half of the year. The efficiency of transmitting PPI growth to CPI growth in this round is also not high, and inflationary pressures will ease in the second half of the year. However, we also need to be aware of the disturbances caused by short-term factors. There are still two risks that are difficult to eliminate: First, the US monetary policy is trending towards a shift. Although my country's bond market yield is fundamentally determined by the domestic environment, it will also be affected by changes in the external environment. During the last TAPER period, my country's interest rate level was driven up. Secondly, the supply shock brought about by concentrated fiscal financing in the second half of the year, therefore<b>The risk of rising interest rates in the short term is greater.</b></p><p><b>Yang Chang, Chief of China-Thailand Policy</b>The reasons why long-term bond yields may be slowly declining are explained: the judgment on long-term bond yields is still based on the judgment on fundamentals. The economy is still recovering, but its momentum is weakening, and downward pressure may arise in the future. From the production perspective, it is approaching normal; From the demand side, investment growth slowed down month-on-month; Consumption has a certain degree of Export sustainability may face pressure.</p><p><b>Zhou Yue, Chief Fixed Income Officer of</b>It is believed that the interest rate bond market had two characteristics in the first half of the year: first, low interest rate volatility. The 10-year Treasury Bond yield fluctuated basically around the central level of 3.17% ± 10 basis points. The low volatility stems from three factors: From a fundamental perspective, the economy has slowed down after the \"new normal,\" and the volatility of the economic cycle has weakened; Monetary policy is gradually shifting from a quantitative approach to a structural one, and its style is changing from a large-scale approach to fine-tuning and pre-adjustment. In terms of funding, the anchoring role of policy interest rates is constantly increasing.</p><p>Second, the funding situation becomes the dominant factor. Looking at the several waves of yields in the first half of the year, the direction of changes in the main maturity Treasury Bond yields in each stage was consistent, but the changes in short-term bonds were significantly greater than in the long-term, indicating that the influence of fundamentals was weakening, and the liquidity situation was the dominant factor in the interest rate trend in the first half of the year.</p><p>Regarding the monetary and credit environment, the economic recovery is uneven and the foundation is unstable, making a tightening of monetary policy unlikely. However, stabilizing leverage and controlling the real estate market constrain the room for easing, and monetary policy is expected to be \"neither tight nor loose\". The period of the fastest credit contraction this year is nearing its end, and the growth rate of social financing is expected to continue to decline slightly in the third quarter, but is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Looking at the central level of the overall funding rate and the current 10-year Treasury Bond yield, the interest rate spread is highly protective, and there is limited room for upward adjustment in yields. However, the possibility of a significant weakening in fundamentals this year forcing monetary policy to shift towards easing is low, so signs of a turning point for bear and bull markets are not yet obvious. In the second half of the year, with \"slowing economic recovery, prudent monetary policy, and easing of tight credit\", yields are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range.</p><p><b>Xiao Yu, analyst at Zhongtai Fixed Income</b>It is believed that the tight credit pressure has eased significantly. The growth rate of social financing slowed sharply from January to May, partly due to the high base in the same period last year, and partly due to the significant contraction of the credit environment. Unlike the deleveraging in 2017-2018, this year, under the tone of \"stabilizing leverage,\" the decline in social financing is mainly due to structural factors. Compared to the same period last year, RMB loans remained basically unchanged, with the main items showing less year-on-year growth being trust loans, corporate bonds, and government bonds. Given that fixed asset investment is still recovering, the loan demand index is at a high level, and nominal loan interest rates are facing upward pressure, the endogenous financing demand of the real economy has not declined significantly. Based on tracking and forecasting of major sub-items, it is judged that the period of fastest credit contraction this year is nearing its end. Although the growth rate of social financing continued to decline slightly in the third quarter, it is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter.</p><p>Social financing growth is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year (%)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50ae67e84a4953fe44477f553181b10c\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Wind,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>Institute</p><p><b>Tang Jun, Chief Engineer of Zhongtai Financial</b>It is believed that there is not much room for interest rates in Treasury Bond to rise or fall in the second half of the year. Since commercial banks are the largest holders of Treasury Bond in my country, looking at changes in the liability costs of commercial banks and their demand for Treasury Bond allocation may provide a new perspective. Interbank interest rates, the strength of regulations on idle arbitrage between financial institutions, and the new asset management regulations prohibiting the wealth management fund pool model will all affect the funding costs for commercial banks to allocate Treasury Bond.</p><p>Looking at them separately, interbank funding rates are mainly a result of the central bank's regulation, and the central bank's monetary policy is likely to remain relatively stable in the second half of the year. According to the indicators of shorting capital constructed by Zhongtai Clock, the regulation of idle capital arbitrage among financial institutions has become significantly stricter since April 2020.<b>The current situation remains relatively tight, which is not conducive to a decline in Treasury Bond interest rates.</b>。 The ban on the wealth management fund pool model in the new asset management regulations will also increase the cost of wealth management funds. For example, under the capital pool model, banks can rollingly issue short-term, low-cost products such as 7 days and 15 days, and allocate a certain proportion of long-term Treasury Bond through maturity mismatch. Moreover, under the capital pool model, large capital pools always need to set aside a portion of funds to deal with the liquidity risks of rolling issuance. This portion of money often becomes the lender of overnight funds, providing cheap funds to small and medium-sized financial institutions, which is conducive to their increased leverage to allocate interest rate bonds.</p><p><b>Li<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XNET\">Xunlei</a></b>He expressed a slightly different view from the above: in 2017, he specifically studied the relationship between interest rates and economic growth. It was found that the 10-year Treasury Bond yields in the United States, Japan, Europe, and India are quite close to their nominal GDP growth rates, especially in the United States, where the 10-year Treasury Bond yield and nominal GDP growth rate are basically in line. The yield on China's 10-year Treasury Bond is very stable in the long run.<b>In 2017, it was approximately 3.6-3.7%.</b>This is far lower than China's nominal GDP growth rate, and the economic growth rate has now slowed down significantly, but the yield on the 10-year Treasury Bond is still fluctuating in both directions around 3.17%.</p><p>Relationship between China's 10-year Treasury Bond yield and nominal GDP</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3519f2e9cd98948a6420438919d0e34f\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>Relationship between US 10-year Treasury Bond yield and nominal GDP</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c122c37781e12a425e16ee1677a12f3\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>This shows that China's long-term interest rate level is actually relatively low. The reason everyone is complaining about the high cost of financing is because my country's market economy is still immature, the credit environment needs improvement, and...<b>Credit-backed enterprises, such as central state-owned enterprises, have very low financing costs.</b></p><p><b>Long-term low interest rates are the main reason for high domestic asset prices and the formation of a \"rigid bubble\".</b>。 For example, domestic housing prices are far higher than international levels, both in terms of rent-to-price ratio and price-to-income ratio. Similarly, many A-shares containing H shares are basically twice or more expensive than their H shares, while interest rates in the Hong Kong market are much lower than in the mainland.</p><p>So, what are the reasons for the consistently low level of long-term interest rates in China? Interest rates are the price of funds and are affected by the supply and demand of funds. The domestic capital supply is still enormous.<b>In order to stabilize growth, the central bank, the Ministry of Finance, the four major banks, and state-owned enterprises have been continuously implementing or participating in counter-cyclical policies. As a result, the growth rate of M2 over the past 20 years has far exceeded the growth rate of nominal GDP.</b></p><p>Besides policy factors, another reason is the rise in the household savings rate after 2000, which is related to residents reducing their consumption rate and large-scale allocation of residential and other real estate. The household savings rate was at its lowest point in 1999,<b>It rose from 27.63% in 1999 to 42.1% in 2010, an increase of 14.5 percentage points.</b>Although my country's household savings rate had dropped to 34.8% by 2018, it was still far higher than the general level of developed countries.</p><p>China's residents' consumption rate and savings rate</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbfa1dc9adb1c5b9a4f0f259763728e1\" tg-width=\"434\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: WIND, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>Assuming all prerequisites remain unchanged, declining interest rates are indeed a major trend as economic growth slows. However, as the population ages and the savings rate continues to decline, the proportion of consumption increases while the proportion of investment decreases, and the inflation rate rebounds, will the nominal interest rate rise?</p><p><b>From the perspective of fiscal revenue and expenditure—</b></p><p><b>Policy reform direction and capital market investment opportunities</b></p><p><b>Xiao Yu</b>It is believed that the effect of \"fiscal postponement\" in the second half of the year may be lower than expected. From January to May, the two-year compound annual growth rate of infrastructure investment was only 3.3%, lower than the level for the whole of 2020 (3.4%). The sluggish recovery in infrastructure investment is relatively consistent with the performance of fiscal expenditure. From January to May, broad fiscal expenditure increased by only 0.8%, and the dynamic deficit ratio further declined, which is already lower than the level of the same period in 2019. Infrastructure investment is likely to rebound slightly in the second half of the year as the issuance of new special-purpose bonds accelerates and budget expenditures increase. But,<b>The stimulating effect of \"fiscal postponement\" may be limited.</b>。 First, affected by the release of the effects of the new tax cuts and the relatively high base in the same period in the second half of last year, the annual revenue growth rate may show a high trend at the beginning and a low trend at the end, and the overall fiscal revenue and expenditure are in a tight balance, which restricts the room for improvement. Second, against the backdrop of strictly controlling local debt risks, reducing government department leverage, and contracting new financing from local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), local governments' willingness and ability to invest in infrastructure remain constrained.</p><p>Fiscal expenditure budget progress was slow from January to May (%)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27e24e7f359e06862c0f458f103b74e5\" tg-width=\"416\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p><b>Yang Chang</b>It is believed that the \"counter-cyclical\" adjustment stance is even more pronounced in fiscal policy. With the urban surveyed unemployment rate further declining and the economy still in the process of recovery, excessive fiscal policy may actually be too strong. In the second half of the year, if the economy has basically peaked, but if the economy declines or the downward pressure is too great, there is still room for fiscal policy to take effect. This will prevent the slope of economic downturn from being too steep.</p><p><b>Xu Chi, Sino-Thai strategist</b>It is believed that fiscal policy is the most important benchmark for predicting policy direction. Starting this year, under three major pressures, my country's fiscal pressure may rise rapidly in the future: First, the largest \"baby boom\" in my country's history (1962-1973) is gradually entering its retirement peak, which means...<b>In the future, nearly 30 million people will go from taxpayers to retirees requiring financial support every year, and this will last for more than ten years.</b>； Second, with the intensification of East-West rivalry and confrontation, military, diplomatic, and technological investment may spiral upward. Third, although \"housing is for living in, not for speculation\" has become a national policy, under the existing economy...<b>Local government reliance on land revenue has risen for five consecutive years, currently exceeding 84%.</b>。 The so-called \"taking the right path with fewer choices\" and the \"hard constraints\" of increasing fiscal revenue and expenditure pressure mean that the space and direction available for policy and reform are actually relatively limited and predictable:</p><p>1) Fiscal policy may be relatively stronger in the second half of the year: With government bond issuance significantly lower than expected in the first half of the year, the concentrated \"bidding, auction and listing\" of land supported the \"six guarantees\" of local governments in the first half of the year. It is expected that the pace of fiscal bond issuance may accelerate in the second half of the year. With liquidity unlikely to be further eased, it is expected that interest rates will be difficult to decline further at least in the third quarter.</p><p>2) Income distribution reform under the concept of \"common prosperity\": Compared with developed countries such as the United States, the tax contribution of the top 1% of my country's wealthy is significantly lower: in the United States, personal income tax accounts for 55% of total government tax revenue.<b>The top 1% of households contribute 17% of tax revenue, but pay 25% of federal income tax.</b>； In my country, individual income tax accounts for only 7.2% of tax revenue, and the lack of an \"asset tax\" related to the wealthy is the most important reason for this difference. With increasing pressure on fiscal revenue and expenditure, the wealthy should shoulder more social responsibility.<b>It is expected that the pilot program for property tax and reforms such as postponing the collection of consumption tax may accelerate in the second half of the year, which may cause some fluctuations in luxury goods such as mid-to-high-end liquor.</b></p><p>3) The pressure on social security is increasing. On the one hand, compared with the United States, where the combined proportion of pensions from enterprises and individuals exceeds 90%, the proportion of enterprise annuities and individual commercial pension insurance among the \"three pillars\" of my country's pension system is significantly lower. For example, in 2018, enterprise annuities accounted for only 18% of the total.<b>Only 0.25% of enterprises offer enterprise annuities, accounting for only 2.5% of the total number of people enrolled in basic old-age insurance; Individual commercial pension insurance accounts for only 4% of the total.</b>。 Amid the \"retirement wave,\" it is expected that starting in the second half of this year, the encouragement of enterprises and individuals to increase their pension contribution ratios will accelerate, which may further increase the concentration of industry leaders.</p><p>On the other hand, increasing investment returns through the capital market will be an important way to alleviate the pressure on social security, and further increasing the proportion of social security and pension funds entering the market will be an inevitable trend. The recent accelerated implementation of state-owned enterprise reforms such as equity incentives and market capitalization management assessments will also help increase their investment returns. With long-term incremental funds entering the market, undervalued blue-chip stocks such as central state-owned enterprises may usher in a trend opportunity for valuation recovery.</p><p>4) Under the pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure and the intensification of geopolitical confrontation, the urgency of key technologies being independent and controllable and requiring continuous capital investment determines that direct financing through the capital market, rather than traditional fiscal subsidies, will be the main form of developing my country's science and technology industry. Therefore, structurally<b>Guide market funds to allocate more to key technology sectors</b>This may be an important direction for capital market reform, such as the recent intensive launch of the Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 and STAR Market 50 funds. Therefore, key technology sectors such as the Science and Technology Innovation 50, military industry, and semiconductors will be the most important investment themes in the second half of this year and for a longer period to come.</p><p><b>The overall outlook for the A-share market in the second half of the year is positive.</b></p><p><b>β is difficult to predict, α has a greater chance.</b></p><p>Given that interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, monetary policy will remain stable in the second half of the year, and the pace of fiscal spending will accelerate, the stock market should seem more optimistic.</p><p><b>Zhang Han, Financial Engineering Analyst at Zhongtai</b>Through tracking market liquidity, it has been discovered that<b>The issuance scale of public funds has increased from a low of 30 billion yuan per month to the current 80 billion yuan.</b>。 Industrial capital reductions in holdings remain at a high level, with monthly reductions of around 70 billion yuan, indicating a relatively weak pattern of changes in foreign capital. Compared with the beginning of this year, the scale of industrial capital reduction in holdings is not much different, but the scale of fund issuance is significantly smaller. If the scale of public fund issuance can continue to increase, it will bring incremental funds to the market. Furthermore, changes in market sentiment scores can be seen...<b>Market risk appetite has increased, and the market may perform well in the short term.</b></p><p><b>Chen Long, Chief Strategist of China-Thailand</b>It is believed that interest rates are expected to decline further in the second half of the year, given that economic growth may be lower than expected and liquidity may be better than expected. The strength of the US dollar is accompanied by a depreciation trend in the RMB exchange rate. The peak of commodities has passed. The equity market will experience fluctuations in economic growth and liquidity expectations in the second half of the year, with expectations exceeding or falling short of expectations. Therefore, we believe that volatility in the equity market will increase in the second half of the year, and the market trend will remain structural.<b>Beta opportunities are difficult to seize; it is recommended to pay more attention to</b>。</p><p>Therefore, in terms of industry allocation, (1) focus on new energy and new energy vehicles, technology manufacturing (semiconductors, HarmonyOS, consumer electronics), military industry, etc., which have stable performance, accelerated profit increases, and maintain high prosperity in the industry; The consumer sector is paying more attention to new consumption. At the same time, we should be wary of the risk of a decline in the interim results of some machinery industries, light industry, and some food and beverage companies.</p><p><b>Tang Army</b>It is believed that the current regulatory situation has an adverse impact on wealth management funds and small and medium-sized financial institutions increasing leverage to allocate interest rate bonds, which may affect the decline of interest rates. However, after the rise in Treasury Bond interest rates last year and the rapid decline in the yields of bank wealth management products, the current 10-year Treasury Bond yield is almost the same as the yields of wealth management products of major state-owned banks (around 3.2%-3.3%). This may mean that the relative attractiveness of Treasury Bond will gradually increase, and the room for yield to rise is also very small.</p><p>The view that maintaining inflation may exceed expectations, in addition to the previously mentioned impact of the pandemic on supply and demand, the impact of policy interventions such as trade protectionism and reducing foreign dependence on global supply chains will also bring about a chain reaction of pushing up costs. In the past, during the long period of globalization and free trade, supply chains and logistics networks have formed a relatively stable ecosystem with optimized costs. However, the impact of the pandemic on the supply chain and human intervention not only led to an increase in direct procurement costs, but also disrupted the original \"optimal path\" of the logistics network, resulting in a significant increase in demand for transportation capacity and insufficient transportation capacity. For example, in some places, shipping containers are extremely difficult to obtain, while in other places, a large number of empty containers are piling up, which is disrupting the original logistics ecosystem. For many commodities, the main places of production and consumption are far apart, and freight costs may account for more than half of the cost.<b>It is recommended to allocate assets in a relatively balanced manner, with a slight overweight allocation to commodities that benefit from inflation.</b></p><p><b>Observing the allocation value of cyclical stocks from futures contracts</b></p><p><b>Wang Shijin, Sino-Thai strategist</b>Analysis of the maturity structure of futures contracts reveals that when a futures product exhibits a forward upward trend, the corresponding commodity price increase is more sustainable, and the excess returns of the corresponding stocks are also more significant. For mid-to-upstream sectors of a cycle, the probability of a sector rising is higher when there are a large number of futures contracts exhibiting a long-term upward trend. The number of futures exhibiting a bullish structure has decreased in the past period, but there are still many futures exhibiting a bullish structure, and the mid-to-upper reaches of the cycle will remain strong in the short term.</p><p>US monetary policy cycle and US Treasury yield spread performance</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a90cd1f8a2e8bdcec353a0065b58f6d\" tg-width=\"1066\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>The market appears to have begun trading on tapering QE. The last round of tapering panic occurred in May 2013, when Bernanke proposed to taper the scale of QE in the future. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose by more than 100 basis points in just over two months. Then, in December 2013, when the Federal Reserve began to truly slow down its bond purchases, the long-term yield on US Treasury bonds actually declined. The same thing has happened recently. Although the FOMC meeting statement last week did not mention the issue of tapering QE, the trends of short-term and long-term US Treasury bonds have been completely opposite recently. The spread between 30-year and 5-year US Treasury yields has decreased by 20 basis points in the last 10 trading days.</p><p>This type of selling short and buying long is a common trading behavior in the early stages of a shrinking balance sheet and during the tapering of QE. During the last round of QE tapering, from the beginning of December 2013 to the end of QE at the end of October 2014, the spread between the long and short terms of US Treasury bonds continued to decline. Although many domestic voices are still in the stage of reducing panic, the market seems to be trading for another scenario. The difference is that the last tapering of QE lasted for a year, but the pace of this tapering may be faster, mainly because the economic changes brought about by the impact of the pandemic are different from those brought about by previous credit shocks.</p><p>Leaving aside the supply and demand structure, discussing interest rate trends is purely a matter of guesswork. Recently, more and more macro analysts have begun to pay attention to overseas markets, such as the ON-RRP continuing to reach a record high and the Federal Reserve raising the IOER rate at its interest rate meeting. However, few people have mentioned the recent supply and demand situation of US Treasury bonds, such as the pace of the New York Federal Reserve's recent purchases of Treasury Bond and MBS, and the pace of the US Treasury Department's bond issuance.</p><p>In fact, since April this year,<b>The US Treasury market has consistently experienced bond purchases exceeding bond issuance, which forms the basis for the continued decline in US Treasury yields throughout the second quarter.</b>Secondly, there are factors such as inflation expectations and monetary policy expectations. key reason for the slowdown in US Treasury issuance in the second quarter was the impact of the debt ceiling date at the end of July. The US Treasury's TGA account balance with the Federal Reserve decreased from over $1.1 trillion in early April to $730 billion, and it is expected to decline further before the end of July. This actually increased along with QE.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>The size of market reserves, while the ON-RRP continues to reach new highs, means that the market can no longer absorb too many reserves. Recently, the transaction volume has accounted for more than 20% of bank reserves. From this perspective, the situation of excess liquidity will not change much before August, and the upward pressure on interest rates from the supply side may become more prominent afterward.</p><p>Emerging Market Stock Index and the US Dollar Index</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b37fcee8b3ecf9403a44e30544dfbdc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Data source: Wind, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>From a macro-driven perspective,<b>In the second half of the year, we can consider positioning ourselves on the left side to invest</b>。 The discussion at the end of May mentioned that the US dollar is likely to strengthen in the second half of the year, mainly due to two factors: first, as vaccination rates increase, the Federal Reserve will prepare to taper QE; second, the economic growth of other the US Dollar Index member countries is significantly slower than that of the United States. Currently, the US Dollar Index has rebounded somewhat after the FOMC meeting, but it remains more at the expected level. If we refer to the performance of the US dollar during the previous round of QE tapering to the end of QE, the accelerated upward trend in the US Dollar Index began in July 2014, that is, the later stage of QE tapering.</p><p>Overall, as US employment gradually recovers and inflation returns to above the AIT target, it is highly likely that QE will be tapered in the second half of the year, which will help the US Dollar Index strengthen. For the stock market, companies with a high proportion of overseas revenue are worth paying attention to. For example, they performed well in 2019 and 2020, but were greatly affected by exchange losses in 2021, dragging down their performance in sectors such as consumer electronics and raw materials for pharmaceuticals. The macroeconomic environment in the second half of the year may be a plus for these companies.</p><p>The index structure is becoming increasingly healthy, and a breakthrough to the previous high is imminent. In terms of liquidity, fund issuance has rebounded significantly recently. Since June, the scale of newly established equity funds has approached the total for April and May. With the continued significant net inflow of northbound capital and the approaching centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, market sentiment is expected to remain high in the short term. Meanwhile, the index structure has improved significantly compared to the beginning of the year. Unlike the rally in January when a few companies rallied to raise valuations, the number of stocks in the entire market currently exceeding their first-quarter peak is close to 1,200, while another nearly 1,000 stocks are less than 10% from their first-quarter peak, such as the leading stocks in the previous round.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">CATL</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WX\">WuXi AppTec</a>It has recently hit a new high, while representative stocks in other active sectors such as<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601012\">LONGi Green Energy</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300059\">Eastmoney</a>With the companies just one step away from their first-quarter high, these companies are more likely to hit new highs under the current sentiment window, and the resilience of these heavyweight stocks also means the resilience of the index.</p><p><b>Stocks Outperform Bonds: Upholding Technological Growth in the A-Share Market</b></p><p><b>Zhang Wenyu, Sino-Thai strategist</b>It is believed that the efficiency of fighting the epidemic is productivity The economic recovery and changes in the macroeconomic policy environment in the second half of the year still require close monitoring of the pace of pandemic control. Vaccination rates are currently diverging across global economies. In terms of vaccination rates, the proportions of people in the UK, the US, and Germany who are fully vaccinated are 46.76%, 44.98%, and 32.24%, respectively, far higher than...<b>3.72% and 0.14% in developing countries such as India and Vietnam, respectively.</b>。 However, vaccination rates in developed economies have declined significantly. Based on current vaccination rates, the U.S. vaccination rate is unlikely to reach the Federal Reserve's 75% target level until the end of the third or beginning of the fourth quarter.</p><p>The proportions of fully vaccinated population in the UK and the US were 46.76% and 44.98%, respectively.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/235afc25c5fb84adbc90634c0d8f8ff3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: Ourworldindata, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>Meanwhile, considering that the third quarter is the time when the U.S. fiscal department will suspend all unemployment benefits, the recovery of the U.S. job market may strengthen in the fourth quarter. At that time, the output gap in developed countries such as the United States may begin to be repaired with the recovery of the domestic production supply chain, thereby reducing \"over-reliance\" on Chinese exports. In addition, some of Biden's infrastructure stimulus plans are expected to be implemented, and the expansion of the US fiscal deficit in the second half of the year will also drive the repair of the output gap. In other words, the core driver of the domestic economy this year—strong exports—may face weakening in the fourth quarter.</p><p>The expansion of the US fiscal deficit is expected to drive the repair of the output gap</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ba838570bbff68a84b6dc44e31e414a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"614\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Source: OECD, FRED, Zhongtai Securities Research Institute</p><p>In terms of domestic economic performance, the Politburo meeting in April pointed out that the economic recovery in the first quarter was uneven, but since the second quarter, the current situation of uneven recovery in manufacturing and consumption has persisted. With the output gap in developed demanding countries such as the United States recovering in the fourth quarter, domestic export momentum has decreased, and the momentum of sustained economic recovery has waned. It may rely more on loose macroeconomic policies to ensure the stability of the economy in the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Meanwhile, with the release of domestic signals guiding upstream raw material prices and the emergence of national policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices, the PPI is expected to decline in the second half of the year, and domestic macro liquidity may still maintain a relatively loose monetary environment.</p><p>In summary, before the Federal Reserve officially signaled a tapering of asset purchases in the third quarter, the output gap did not close rapidly, market expectations for inflation declined, and US long-term interest rates remained weak and volatile. Domestic liquidity has slowly shifted in the first half of the year, and economic growth momentum will weaken in the second half. Domestic monetary policy will still maintain relatively loose liquidity, and the equity market may be dominated by structural opportunities in the growth style.</p><p>In terms of asset allocation in the second half of the year, the equity market may outperform the bond market and commodities. With the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the expectation of the implementation of reform policies will increase market risk appetite, and we will stick to emerging sectors such as growth technology. 1) Commodities: The global economic recovery is still underway.<b>Crude oil, energy and chemical stocks priced globally may continue their volatile upward trend.</b>； 2) A-share market: Military, technology stocks and technology sectors such as the STAR Market 50 are more likely to enjoy valuation repair and policy premiums. The current valuations of the military, communications, computer and electronics sectors are at the historical percentiles of 32.47%, 21.18%, 53.82% and 31.76% over the past decade, respectively, indicating that there is still room for improvement in overall valuations. In addition, structural opportunities in core technologies supported by strong performance, such as new energy, semiconductors, and new materials, will also become prominent.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149610930","content_text":"再过4天，今年上半年就将过去了，下周四将迎来建党百年大庆。也有人担心利好兑现后市场见顶。为此，中泰总量团队周末讨论会就下半年我国的利率走势及财政政策展开讨论，分析中美货币政策的走向、财政支出的节奏对资本市场的影响。\n下半年及长期利率走向如何看\n中泰宏观首席陈兴认为，下半年利率或将呈现“先上后下”的走势，短期利率上行的风险更大，而待调整后下行趋势更为顺畅。对于大类资产配置而言，债市优势或较为突出，权益市场存在结构性机会，而商品市场受价格下行拖累，表现不如上半年。\n不论是从经济增长还是通胀的角度来看，下半年国内环境都有利于利率水平的下行。首先，经济增长的压力将逐渐显现。疫情以来，全球经济循环最为突出的两个方面就是美国的消费和中国的出口，美国个人消费支出疫情过后的经济增长中贡献远远超过私人投资，净出口和政府支出，与之对应的就是我国出口的高景气。而我国去年下半年出口增速12个百分点之中，超过4个百分点都是对美出口所拉动。\n随着美国补贴退潮、通胀高企令居民实际收入受损和消费结构转变三大因素的变化，美国消费对我国出口的拉动力量会趋于减弱。虽然国内消费和制造业投资增速会有恢复，但内生动力不如补贴刺激下的外生动力强劲。\n其次，从通胀来看，国内下半年的态势要比上半年缓和很多。全球疫情见顶回落以及国内“保供稳价”的举措使得大宗商品定价逻辑重回需求主导。而偏弱的经济恢复态势意味着大多数工业品价格不具备持续上涨的基础，加上基数效应给PPI增速造成的压力下半年也趋于缓解，本轮PPI增速向CPI增速传导效率也并不高，下半年通胀压力有所减轻。但我们还需注意到短期因素的扰动。目前还有两方面风险事实上难以消除：一是美国货币政策趋于转向，虽然我国债市收益率根本上来说由国内环境决定，但也会受到外部环境变化的干扰，上一次TAPER时期我国的利率水平就被牵引上移；二是下半年财政集中融资带来的供给冲击，所以短期利率上行风险更大。\n中泰政策研究首席杨畅阐述了长债利率或缓慢向下的理由：对于长债利率的判断，还是依托对基本面的判断。经济仍在修复，但动能趋弱，未来可能出现下行的压力。从生产端来看，已经逼近正常状态；从需求端来看，投资环比增速有所放缓；消费具有一定韧性；出口延续性可能面临压力。\n中泰固定收益首席周岳认为，上半年利率债市场有两个特征：一是利率低波动。10Y国债收益率基本围绕中枢3.17%±10BP波动。低波动源于三个因素：从基本面看，“新常态”后减速降档，经济周期波动减弱；货币政策逐渐由总量型转为结构性，风格从大开大合转为微调预调；资金方面，政策利率的锚定作用不断上升。\n二是资金面成主导。从上半年收益率的几个波段来看，每个阶段主要期限国债收益率变动方向均一致，但短债变动幅度明显大于长端，表明基本面影响钝化，资金面才是上半年利率走势的主导因素。\n货币信用环境方面，经济恢复不均衡、基础不稳固，货币政策收紧可能性较低，但稳杠杆和控地产制约宽松空间，货币政策预计“不紧不松”。年内信用收缩最快的时点已接近尾声，三季度社融增速预计继续小幅回落，四季度有望企稳。\n综合资金利率中枢和当前10Y国债收益率水平看，利差保护性较强，收益率向上调整空间有限。但是，年内基本面大幅走弱倒逼货币政策转向宽松的可能性较低，因此熊牛拐点的迹象还不明显。下半年“经济复苏放缓，货币政策稳健，紧信用趋缓”的环境下，收益率预计延续区间震荡态势。\n中泰固收分析师肖雨认为，紧信用压力明显缓和。1-5月份社融增速大幅回落，一方面受去年同期高基数影响，另一方面信用环境确实明显收缩。不同于2017年-2018年的去杠杆，今年在“稳杠杆”基调下，社融回落主要源于结构性因素。相比去年同期，人民币贷款基本持平，同比少增的分项主要是信托贷款、企业债和政府债等。考虑到固定资产投资仍在恢复，贷款需求指数处于较高水平，同时名义贷款利率面临上升压力，实体内生融资需求并未显著下滑。基于主要分项的跟踪预测，判断年内信用收缩最快的时点接近尾声，尽管三季度社融增速继续小幅回落，但四季度有望企稳。\n下半年社融增速有望企稳（%）\n\n数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所\n中泰金融工程首席唐军认为， 下半年国债利率上下空间都不大。因为我国国债最大的持有人是商业银行，从商业银行的负债成本的变化来看其对国债配置需求的变化，或许能提供一个新视角。银行间的资金利率、对金融机构间资金空转套利的监管力度、资管新规禁止理财资金池模式等，都会影响商业银行配置国债的资金成本。\n分别来看，银行间的资金利率主要是央行调控下的结果，下半年央行的货币松紧大概率保持较稳定。根据中泰时钟构建的资金空力度的指标，对金融机构间资金空转套利的监管力度自2020年4月份以来明显趋严，目前仍处于较严的状态，不利于国债利率下行。而资管新规对理财资金池模式的取缔也会抬升理财资金的成本。比如在资金池模式下，银行可以滚动发行7天、15天等短期限、低成本的产品，通过期限错配，配置一定比例的长期国债。而且在资金池的模式下，大资金池总要留出一部分资金应对滚动发行的流动性风险，这部分钱往往会成为隔夜资金的出借方，给中小金融机构提供了廉价的资金，利于他们加杠杆配置利率债。\n李迅雷发表了与上述稍有不同的观点：曾在2017年专门研究过利率与经济增长的关系。发现美国、日本、欧洲和印度的10年期国债收益率跟其名义GDP增速都是比较接近的，尤其是美国，10年期国债收益率和名义GDP增速基本在一条线上。而中国的10年期国债的收益率长期看非常稳定，2017年的时候约为3.6-3.7%，远低于中国名义GDP增速，如今经济增速已经明显回落，但10年期国债的收益率仍保持在3.17%附近双向波动。\n中国十年期国债收益率与名义GDP关系\n\n数据来源：WIND, 中泰证券研究所\n美国十年期国债收益率与名义GDP关系\n\n数据来源：WIND, 中泰证券研究所\n这说明中国的长期利率水平实际上是偏低的。之所以大家都在抱怨融资贵，是因为我国的市场经济还不成熟，信用环境有待改善，有信用背书的，如央企的融资成本就非常低。\n长期利率长期偏低是导致国内资产价格偏贵、形成“刚性泡沫”的主要原因。如国内房价无论从租售比还是从房价收入比的角度看，都远高于国际水平。同样，很多含H股的A股的股价基本上也比其H股贵一倍左右甚至更多，而香港市场的利率水平比内地要低得多。\n那么，是什么原因导致国内长期利率水平一直偏低呢？利率是资金的价格，受资金的供需关系影响。国内的资金供给规模还是非常巨大，为了稳增长，央行、财政部、四大行、国企执行或参与逆周期政策一直不断，故过去20年的M2的增速大大超过名义GDP增速。\n除了政策因素外，还有一个原因是2000年以后居民储蓄率的上行，这与居民降低消费率，大规模配置住宅等房地产相关。居民储蓄率的最低点是1999年，从1999年的27.63％上升到2010年的42.1％，增加了14.5个百分点。尽管到2018年我国的居民储蓄率已经降至34.8%，但仍远高于发达国家的普遍水平。\n我国居民消费率与储蓄率\n\n数据来源：WIND，中泰证券研究所\n假设各项前提条件不变，随着经济增速下行，利率下行确实是大趋势。但随着今后人口老龄化背景下，居民储蓄率的不断下行，消费占比增加而投资占比下降，通胀率有所回升，则名义利率会否有所上升呢？\n财政收支视角下——\n政策改革方向及资本市场投资机会\n肖雨认为，下半年“财政后置”效果可能低于预期。1-5月，基建投资两年复合增速仅为3.3%，低于2020年全年水平（3.4%）。基建投资复苏乏力和财政支出表现较为吻合，1-5月份广义财政支出仅增长0.8%，动态赤字率进一步下降，已经低于2019年同期水平。下半年随着新增专项债发行提速和预算支出进度的上升，基建投资存在小幅回升的可能。但是，“财政后置”的刺激作用可能有限。一是受新增减税政策效应释放和去年下半年同期基数相对较高影响，全年收入增速可能呈现前高后低走势，财政收支总体处于紧平衡状态，制约发力空间；二是严控地方债务风险、降低政府部门杠杆率、城投新增融资收缩的背景下，地方政府基建投资的意愿和能力仍受约束。\n1-5月财政支出预算进度缓慢（%）\n\n数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所\n杨畅认为，在财政政策上，“逆周期”调节的姿态就更加明显了。在城镇调查失业率进一步走低，经济仍然处于修复通道过程中，财政政策过度发力，反而会用力过猛。下半年，如果经济触顶基本完成，经济如果出现下行，或者下行压力过大，财政政策发力的空间仍然是有的。这就导致经济下行的斜率，不会过于陡峭。\n中泰策略分析师徐驰认为，财政是预判政策方向最重要的基准，今年起，三大压力下，未来我国财政压力或上升较快：第一，我国历史上最大的“婴儿潮”（62年至73年）,逐步进入退休高峰期，这意味着，今后每年有近3000万人将由纳税人变成需要财政供养的退休人员，且持续时间十年以上；第二，东西方博弈及对抗加大下，军事、外交及科技投入或呈螺旋增长趋势；第三，尽管房住不炒已成为国策，但存量经济下，地方财政对土地财政的依赖度已连续5年上行，目前已超过84%。所谓在“更少选择之下走更对的路”，在财政收支压力增大的“硬约束”，决定了政策和改革可供选择的空间及方向其实是相对有限和可以预判的：\n1）下半年财政或将相对发力：上半年政府财政发债明显低于预期下，土地集中“招拍挂”支撑了上半年地方政府的“六保”，预计下半年财政发债节奏或将提速，在流动性难以进一步宽松下，预计至少在三季度，利率或较难进一步下行。\n2）“共同富裕”下的收入分配改革：与美国等发达国家相比，我国前1%的富人的税收贡献明显偏低：美国个税占政府税收总收入55%，前1%的家庭贡献税收收入占比17%，交纳联邦所得税占比却达25%；而我国个税占税收收入比重仅为7.2%，与富人相关的“资产税”的缺乏是造成这一差异的最重要原因。在财政收支压力越来越大下，富人理应承担更多社会责任，预计房地产税的试点以及消费税征收环节后置等改革，在下半年亦或提速，这或将对中高端白酒等奢侈品细分造成一定的波动。\n3）社保压力越来越大下，一方面，与美国养老金，企业与个人部分合计占比超过90%相比，我国养老金构成的“三大支柱”之中，企业年金与个人商业养老保险占比明显偏低，比如：2018年，企业年金仅占总量的18%，仅有0.25%的企业提供企业年金，仅占基本养老保险总参保人数的2.5%；而个人商业养老保险部分更是仅占总量的4%。“退休潮”下，预计今年下半年起，鼓励企业与个人增加养老金缴纳比例亦将加速，这或将进一步加大行业龙头的集中度。\n另一方面，通过资本市场增加投资收益将是缓解社保压力的重要路径，社保、养老金进一步增加入市比例将是大势所趋。近期央企股权激励及市值管理考核等国企改革动作的加速落地，亦将有助于其投资收益的增加。在后续长期增量资金入市的背景下，央企等低估值蓝筹或将迎来估值修复的趋势性机会。\n4）财政收支压力与地缘对抗加剧下，关键科技自主可控，需要持续资金投入的迫切性这一矛盾，决定了通过资本市场直接融资，而非传统的财政补贴，将是我国发展科技行业的主要形式。故结构上，引导市场资金更多的向关键科技领域配置，或将是资本市场改革的重要方向，如：近期双创50，科创50基金密集发售。故科创50、军工、半导体等关键科技领域将是今年下半年以及未来更长时间，最重要的投资主线。\n下半年A股市场总体看好——\nβ不好把握，α机会更大\n既然从长期看，利率有望下行，下半年货币政策将维持稳定，财政支出节奏加快，那么，股市似乎也应该更乐观些。\n中泰金融工程分析师张晗通过对于市场资金面的跟踪发现，公募基金发行规模从低点每月募集300亿上升至当前的800亿。产业资本减持仍然维持在较高位置，月度减持700亿左右，外资变化的规律性较弱。与今年年初相比，产业资本减持规模相差不多，但是基金发行规模明显偏少。若公募发行规模能够持续提升，则会为市场带来增量资金，此外通过市场情绪得分的变化可以看出，市场风险偏好提升，短期市场或有较好表现。\n中泰策略首席陈龙认为，在经济增长可能低于预期与流动性可能好于预期的情况下，下半年利率有望进一步走低。美元强势伴随着人民币汇率有贬值趋势。大宗商品顶点已过。下半年权益市场将会在经济增长与流动性预期上反复，超预期或者低于预期都可能存在。因此，我们认为下半年权益市场的波动性将会增大，市场行情仍然是结构性的，β机会不好把握，建议更加关注α。\n因此，在行业配置方面，（1）重点关注业绩稳健，盈利加速上调，行业维持高景气的新能源及新能源汽车、科技制造（半导体、鸿蒙、消费电子）、军工等；消费领域更加关注新消费。同时警惕部分机械行业、轻工、部分食品饮料中报业绩的下滑风险。\n唐军认为，目前的监管态势对理财资金和中小金融机构加杠杆配置利率债有不利影响，这可能影响了利率的下行。但经过去年国债利率的上行以及银行理财产品收益率的较快下行，当前十年期国债收益率与国有大行的理财产品的收益率（3.2%-3.3%左右）已经相差无几，这可能意味着国债的相对吸引力将逐步提升，收益率上行的空间也很小了。\n维持通胀可能超预期的观点，除了之前提到的疫情对供给、需求方面的影响之外，贸易保护主义、降低对外依存度等政策干预对全球供应链的冲击也会带来推升成本的连锁反应。在过去长期的全球化自由贸易中，供应链和物流网络都形成了成本最优化的较稳定的生态，而疫情对供应链的影响以及人为的干预不仅导致直接采购成本提高，还会打破物流网络原来的“最优路径”，造成对运力需求大增以及运力不足的问题。比如，一些地方集装箱一箱难求，而另一些地方空集装箱大量堆积，正是打破了原来物流生态的表现。而对很多大宗商品来说，主要产地和消费地都相距甚远，运费在成本中占比可能超过一半。建议大类资产相对均衡配置，小幅超配受益通胀的大宗商品。\n从期货合约观察周期股配置价值\n中泰策略分析师王仕进通过对期货合约的期限结构进行分析发现，当一个期货品种呈现出远期上涨结构的时候，对应的大宗商品上涨的持续性会更好，对应股票的超额收益也明显。对于周期中上游板块，当呈现远期上涨结构的期货数量较多时，板块上涨的概率较高。过去一段时间呈现看涨结构的期货数量减少，但当前仍然有多种期货呈现看涨结构，短期内周期中上游仍然偏强。\n 美国货币政策周期与美债利差表现\n\n数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所\n市场似乎已经开始交易缩减QE。上一轮削减恐慌发生在13年5月，伯南克提出未来要缩减QE规模的时候，10年期美债收益率2个多月上行了100多个bp，而随后13年12月，当美联储开始真正意义上放缓购债规模的时候，美债长端利率实际上是下行的。同样的事情在近期已经发生，尽管上周FOMC会议声明里没有提到缩减QE的问题，但近期短期美债和长期美债的走势截然相反，30年期美债和5年期美债的利差最近10个交易日下降了20bp。\n这种卖短买长的操作是缩表初期和缩减QE阶段常见的一种交易行为，上一轮从13年12月初开始缩减QE至14年10月底结束QE期间，美债长短端利差持续走低。尽管国内不少声音还停留在削减恐慌的阶段，但市场似乎已经在交易另外一个场景。区别的是，上一次缩减QE持续了一年，这一次缩减节奏可能会变快，主要是因为这次疫情冲击和以往信用冲击带来的经济状态变化是不同的。\n抛开供需结构来谈利率走势纯是拍脑袋。近期越来越多的宏观分析师开始关注海外市场，比如ON-RRP规模持续创历史新高，美联储议息会议提高IOER利率等，但鲜有人提及近期的美债供需状态，比如纽约联储最近购买国债和MBS的节奏，美国财政部发行债券的节奏等。\n实际上今年4月以来，美债市场一直处在购债规模大于发债规模的状态，这是整个二季度美债利率持续下行的基础，其次才是通胀预期、货币政策预期等因素。二季度美债发行放缓的一个重要原因是受7月底的债务上限日影响，美国财政部在美联储的TGA账户余额从4月初的1.1万多亿美元降至7300亿美元，7月底之前还会进一步下降，这其实与QE一起增加了美国银行间市场准备金的规模，而ON-RRP规模持续创新高，意味着市场已经承接不了过多的准备金，最近的成交规模占银行准备金的比例已经超过20%。从这个角度看，8月之前流动性过剩的局面不会发生太大变化，之后可能供给端带来的利率上行压力会有所凸显。\n新兴市场股价指数与美元指数\n\n数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所\n宏观驱动的机会来看，下半年可以考虑左侧布局美元升值。5月底讨论会观点提到，美元下半年走强的可能性较高，主要源自两方面因素：一是随着疫苗接种率提升，美联储会准备缩减QE，另一方面其他美元指数构成国的经济增长显著慢于美国。目前来看，FOMC会议后，美元指数有所反弹，但更多停留在预期层面，如果参考上一轮缩减QE到结束QE期间的美元表现，美元指数加速上行开始于2014年7月，即缩减QE的后期。\n整体而言，随着美国就业水平逐渐恢复，通胀也恢复至AIT目标之上，下半年开始缩减QE是大概率事件，这有利于美元指数走强。对股票市场而言，海外收入占比较高的公司值得关注，如在19年、20年有过不错表现，但21年受汇兑损失影响较大，拖累公司业绩的消费电子、原料药等板块，下半年的宏观环境可能是这类公司的加分项。\n指数结构愈发健康，突破前高箭在弦上。资金面来看，近期基金发行明显回暖，6月以来新成立偏股型基金规模已经接近4-5月总和，北上资金持续大幅净流入叠加建党百年临近，短期市场情绪有望维持高位。同时，指数结构较年初明显改善，与1月份少数公司的抱团提估值行情不同，当前全市场超过一季度股价高点的个股数接近1200只，另外近1000只个股距离一季度高点不足10%，比如上一轮领涨的宁德时代和药明康德在近期已经创新高，而其他活跃板块的代表性个股如隆基股份、东方财富等距离一季度高点也只有一步之遥，当前情绪窗口下，这类公司创新高的概率比较大，这些权重股的韧性也同时意味着指数的韧性。\n股优于债：坚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