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- HooteikHooteik
  ·2021-07-25
  Hj
  When we buy funds, what are we buying?
  有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲
  When we buy funds, what are we buying?
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Recently, with the continued fermentation of carbon neutrality policies, lithium, as a raw material for new energy batteries, has been enthusiastically sought after by the market. \"Grandpa Lithium\" and \"Grandma Cobalt\" are gaining momentum, causing the new energy sector to surge. Many investors, seeing the strong upward trend in the new energy sector, are starting to get excited and are looking for a new energy-themed fund to buy.</p><p>“Some investors buy funds because they are optimistic about certain sectors, such as consumer and military industries, and then find fund managers in the market who are most similar to their ideas and holdings, and then buy them. This is putting the cart before the horse,” said Ye Erle of Guosheng Metal Machinery. “For the same stock or industry, each fund manager’s logic may be completely different, and the money they can ultimately make will also be completely different.”</p><p>Ye Erle believes that we often ask fund managers \"what did we buy\" without knowing \"why did we buy it,\" and the latter question may be more important. Recently, one of his research reports, \"What Money Do Public Funds Really Make? - A Series of Reports on the Evolution of Fund ALPHA,\" has attracted widespread attention in the industry and received unanimous praise from many institutions. In his report, he provided a detailed analysis of the fund's sources of income and introduced a method that differs from the traditional approach to classifying fund managers' abilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457375bc4d0235878aa7dc3b323dbb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ye Erle, analyst at Guosheng Metal Machinery</p><p>Last month, our Yuanchuan Research Institute spoke with Ye Erle, an analyst at Guosheng Metal Machinery, to discuss what kind of money public funds actually make. We hope that this conversation can bring new inspiration to investors about \"buying funds\".</p><p>Below are some of Ye Erle's views on questions such as what to buy in funds, what abilities fund managers possess, and how to build a fund portfolio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafe4d249052d6040ae3bf665fe6edad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Many people ask when buying funds, \"Is it still worth buying this fund after it has risen so much?\" Ye Erle answers: Buying funds is different from buying stocks; it's not advisable to chase high prices in stocks.<b>However, funds can \"chase high prices\" under certain circumstances.</b>Overall, Yerle listed three differences between funds and stocks, which are reflected in pricing, valuation, and risk diversification methods.</p><p>Stock pricing is the result of expectation exchange and expectation game between people based on publicly available market data.<b>The pricing of the fund is determined by the fund manager alone.</b>For stocks to rise, more and more people are persuaded to buy them by a certain narrative or logic. For funds to rise, fund managers need to have the ability to perceive this logic in advance, buy stocks in advance of everyone, and sell them when everyone buys in.</p><p>Stocks have clear valuations, while funds do not have valuation issues in the sense of net asset value. Stocks that rise too much will fall, and stocks that fall too much will rise. However, funds that rise well do not necessarily perform poorly in the future, nor do funds that perform poorly in the past necessarily perform well in the future. There's a highly extrapolated indicator for buying funds called ALPHA, which means...<b>A good past and a good future essentially depend on the ability of a fund manager. Only when a fund manager's capabilities are stable in a certain area can they have long-term momentum in a certain sub-sector's returns, and this long-term momentum in a certain sub-sector's returns also proves that the fund is stable in this type of capability.</b></p><p>Stocks possess inherent risks at the company level, which can be controlled through diversified holdings. Funds are portfolios of stocks, and the risks in this regard are relatively small. Risk control cannot rely solely on simple diversification. For example, if you buy a bunch of funds that tend to favor stocks, although the proportion of individual funds may be very small, the risk of the portfolio in terms of the \"favoring factor\" is very high. Once the favoring collapses, the entire fund portfolio will have a great pullback/retracement risk. In that case, it may not be as good as choosing one fund for each large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap fund, as the risk is more diversified. So,<b>Fund risk needs to penetrate into the underlying style to diversify.</b></p><p>So what is the essence of a fund?</p><p>Yerle believes that the fund remains unchanged.<b>Essentially, a fund manager's so-called circle of competence includes personality, investment system, information sources, and investment model.</b>After years of evolution, it has become difficult for fund managers to classify themselves using simple investment styles such as \"large and small caps,\" \"value growth,\" and \"industry themes.\" Such classifications are less stable and require further attribution of fund returns to summarize the fund manager's stock selection logic and reveal their true capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7147ee6f0c9e846a286b58749c009cb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What kind of money do mutual funds actually make?</p><p>After attributing the returns of public funds in his report, Ye Erle concluded that fund returns include money that fund managers cannot stably earn, money that is inevitably lost, and money that can be stably earned.</p><p>First, the money a fund earns is unstable in terms of market capitalization and valuation. I've only made money in two waves in terms of market capitalization: one was with a small market capitalization in 2014-2016, and the other was with a large market capitalization from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. Market capitalization is very difficult to grasp. In terms of valuation, mutual funds favor overvalued stocks, which brought negative returns before 2019 and positive returns afterward, and the money earned in terms of valuation is not stable.</p><p>Furthermore, mutual funds prefer stocks with high volatility and liquidity, which leads to long-term losses. High volatility refers to the fact that a stock has risen and fallen sharply in the past, which can lead to trading losses. Public funds, constrained by their large size and publicly offered nature, must buy highly liquid stocks. High liquidity corresponds to high pricing efficiency, and the duration of quick-logic money in these stocks has been shortening in recent years.<b>Public funds find it difficult to engage in high-frequency trading and make money from such fast-paced logic, so they basically hand it over to private high-frequency traders.</b></p><p>Therefore, neither money with market capitalization, valuation, nor money with high volatility and liquidity is something that most fund managers can stably control. Yerle believes that<b>When buying funds, one should pay more attention to the fund manager's ability to make stable profits.</b></p><p>Then<b>If mutual funds cannot make quick money, they can only make slow money.</b>Slow-logic money is reflected in the returns of two styles:<b>Momentum and growth.</b>Momentum refers to a logic that can only lead to a steady rise in stock prices over the past 12 months if it develops gradually. Yerle calls this characteristic of steady rise momentum. Growth means that a company has growth potential, and verifying growth potential takes time and thus relies on slow logic.</p><p>Regarding making money from the growth logic, Ye Erle summarized three advantages: (1) The growth logic needs time to be verified and cannot be fully reacted to in the short term, leaving fund managers enough time; (2) The logic of growth will be realized in the short term, which can be verified in stages according to the quarterly report. Each verification can realize some excess returns and make the stock rise continuously. (3) The logic of growth is more verifiable than the logic of value, because the regression of valuation depends on many external macro or market factors. The logic of growth, such as the judgment of the company’s growth rate over 5 years, will definitely have a fact in the next 5 years to verify whether what was said 5 years ago was correct or not.</p><p>Yerle believes that<b>The primary purpose of mutual funds is to predict company performance and profit from growth logic.</b>Because most public funds currently focus on short-term performance assessments, growth stocks are more cost-effective than value stocks: it may take 1 to 3 years for value to return to earn excess returns, and the timing is highly uncertain, while growth stocks can logically realize their returns every quarter.</p><p>From a strategic perspective, Ye Erle introduced another factor that enables funds to make money at the company level in the long term, in addition to performance growth—analyst enthusiasm. Analyst enthusiasm refers to the fact that fund managers typically pay close attention to analysts' recommendations, thereby translating them into their own investment logic.<b>The advantage of having access to information compared to the public is also a reason why mutual funds make money in the long run, as fund managers have faster channels to receive information.</b></p><p>In general, mutual funds in<b>Momentum, Growth, Analyst Sentiment</b>These factors generate long-term profits and are where fund managers' capabilities lie. However, style-based returns such as market capitalization and valuation, as well as trading-based returns such as high volatility and high liquidity, are beyond the control of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cf5bac55700f0cdf8740d80785377cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After understanding the sources of fund returns, how should we proceed when it comes to classifying fund manager competency labels and constructing fund portfolios?</p><p>Yerle uses examples to show us how to analyze a fund. Taking a well-performing fund this year as an example, he quantified the fund's returns, thus summarizing the ability labels that fund managers possess.</p><p>First, Yerle completely broke down the fund's returns into four major sources of income. The fund's performance in \"strategic returns\" was average, but its contribution in \"dynamic returns\" was significant. This means that the fund manager's overall stock selection ability was average, but his swing trading ability was strong. The fund also contributes significantly to \"industry returns,\" indicating that it has chosen a good industry. Based on this, fund managers can be labeled with: dynamic return capabilities and industry allocation capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96be149643d87dd279b716450ccb6797\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Next, we analyzed the fund's \"style returns.\" Since changing fund managers in 2020, the fund's style has shifted to small and medium-sized market capitalization, high momentum, high volatility, high valuation, and high growth, and the style is stable. We found that the fund manager likes to buy small-cap stocks and popular sectors. This labeled him: small to medium market capitalization, popular sector investment, and historically stable style.</p><p>Let's look at the characteristics of industry returns: the concentration of holdings is high, with pharmaceuticals buying nearly 50% of the position and machinery buying nearly 40%. Once you are optimistic about the industry, you bet heavily. In terms of industry switching, they are highly sensitive to cycles, shifting significantly to machinery and chemicals in the second quarter of last year, while the market as a whole paid close attention to these two industries in the fourth quarter. Based on this, it can be labeled as industry concentration.</p><p>Finally, it was observed that the fund had low exposure to the analyst sentiment factor in the second quarter of last year, which means that it was earlier than analysts expected, and its subsequent operations were the opposite of analysts' recommendations. The more analysts recommended it, the more it sold, indicating that it was sensitive to left-side/information changes.</p><p>Based on this, Yerle concluded that the fund manager demonstrated [misconduct] during the management of this fund from January 2020 to March 2021.<b>Strong dynamic investment capabilities and a small to mid-cap investment style.</b>It was able to quickly process market information, decisively and concentratedly adjust positions at critical points on the left and right sides, conduct effective meso-level industry allocation and dynamic individual stock operations, invest in popular sectors with relatively small market capitalizations, and avoid the crowded blue-chip sectors at the time.</p><p>After analyzing such a fund manager, Ye Erle believes that one can focus on the \"personality\" of this fund manager, find similar fund managers, and build a portfolio.</p><p>For example, we could build a portfolio of fund managers who all have strong dynamic return capabilities, or bring out a certain type of fund manager who also have strong stock selection and industry allocation capabilities, continue to track them, and analyze what kind of market this portfolio is suitable for.<b>When you need a fund manager with certain characteristics, Guosheng Metal Machinery can use quantitative methods to select them from a portfolio of fund managers.</b></p><p>Guosheng Metal Machinery has built a long-term tracking fund portfolio on Wind: Guosheng Fund Selection Strategy, which has performed very well in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a439a13ff398b1ae2bd7eae1b60978ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Data source: wind)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb201d1d3189ee8ec2a861a447ce715c\" tg-width=\"388\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Data source: wind)</p><p>This method of classifying fund managers' abilities is an important contribution to Ye Erle's research report. He redefined the dimensions of fund managers, dividing them into various abilities and investment logics. Compared to the previous approach of dividing fund managers by industry and simple style, this method is more stable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0df7a1b499d59e3ea2351cf743665be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For ordinary investors, they should also pay more attention to the various abilities possessed by fund managers when buying funds. Our official WeChat account, \"Yuanchuan Investment Review,\" frequently updates with research and interviews with fund managers, serving as a window for everyone to understand the circle of competence of fund managers.</p><p>Through continuous learning, you will learn which fund managers are good at stock trading, which are good at stock selection, and which industries have strong allocation capabilities, so that you can choose funds that meet your preferences.</p><p>For capabilities that fund managers cannot grasp, such as market capitalization, we can diversify fund risk by building portfolios by combining funds with different market styles (such as large-cap and small-cap).</p><p>However, when building a fund portfolio, everyone's expected returns and risk appetite are different. Understanding yourself and allocating funds according to your own needs are the most important things.</p><p>Finally, Yerle gave ordinary fund investors...<b>Some suggestions:</b></p><p>1. Do not blindly follow trends and buy funds recommended on Alipay's homepage. Be cautious when everyone else is buying.</p><p>2. Don't expect funds with a size exceeding 5 billion yuan to generate strong excess returns outside of the style industry. Guosheng Metal Machinery conducted a test on fund size. On average, the fund's alpha is strongest between 500 and 2 billion yuan under management. Once the fund manager's management scale becomes particularly large, the alpha is likely to decline.</p><p>3. If fund investors lack clear judgment ability, it is recommended to invest regularly to diversify costs and reduce their sensitivity to the win rate.</p>","source":"lsy1583835599575","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When we buy funds, what are we buying?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen we buy funds, what are we buying?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">远川投资评论</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 10:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With lithium, it can travel all over the world; without it, it's impossible to move an inch. Recently, with the continued fermentation of carbon neutrality policies, lithium, as a raw material for new energy batteries, has been enthusiastically sought after by the market. \"Grandpa Lithium\" and \"Grandma Cobalt\" are gaining momentum, causing the new energy sector to surge. Many investors, seeing the strong upward trend in the new energy sector, are starting to get excited and are looking for a new energy-themed fund to buy.</p><p>“Some investors buy funds because they are optimistic about certain sectors, such as consumer and military industries, and then find fund managers in the market who are most similar to their ideas and holdings, and then buy them. This is putting the cart before the horse,” said Ye Erle of Guosheng Metal Machinery. “For the same stock or industry, each fund manager’s logic may be completely different, and the money they can ultimately make will also be completely different.”</p><p>Ye Erle believes that we often ask fund managers \"what did we buy\" without knowing \"why did we buy it,\" and the latter question may be more important. Recently, one of his research reports, \"What Money Do Public Funds Really Make? - A Series of Reports on the Evolution of Fund ALPHA,\" has attracted widespread attention in the industry and received unanimous praise from many institutions. In his report, he provided a detailed analysis of the fund's sources of income and introduced a method that differs from the traditional approach to classifying fund managers' abilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457375bc4d0235878aa7dc3b323dbb68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1220\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Ye Erle, analyst at Guosheng Metal Machinery</p><p>Last month, our Yuanchuan Research Institute spoke with Ye Erle, an analyst at Guosheng Metal Machinery, to discuss what kind of money public funds actually make. We hope that this conversation can bring new inspiration to investors about \"buying funds\".</p><p>Below are some of Ye Erle's views on questions such as what to buy in funds, what abilities fund managers possess, and how to build a fund portfolio.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cafe4d249052d6040ae3bf665fe6edad\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Many people ask when buying funds, \"Is it still worth buying this fund after it has risen so much?\" Ye Erle answers: Buying funds is different from buying stocks; it's not advisable to chase high prices in stocks.<b>However, funds can \"chase high prices\" under certain circumstances.</b>Overall, Yerle listed three differences between funds and stocks, which are reflected in pricing, valuation, and risk diversification methods.</p><p>Stock pricing is the result of expectation exchange and expectation game between people based on publicly available market data.<b>The pricing of the fund is determined by the fund manager alone.</b>For stocks to rise, more and more people are persuaded to buy them by a certain narrative or logic. For funds to rise, fund managers need to have the ability to perceive this logic in advance, buy stocks in advance of everyone, and sell them when everyone buys in.</p><p>Stocks have clear valuations, while funds do not have valuation issues in the sense of net asset value. Stocks that rise too much will fall, and stocks that fall too much will rise. However, funds that rise well do not necessarily perform poorly in the future, nor do funds that perform poorly in the past necessarily perform well in the future. There's a highly extrapolated indicator for buying funds called ALPHA, which means...<b>A good past and a good future essentially depend on the ability of a fund manager. Only when a fund manager's capabilities are stable in a certain area can they have long-term momentum in a certain sub-sector's returns, and this long-term momentum in a certain sub-sector's returns also proves that the fund is stable in this type of capability.</b></p><p>Stocks possess inherent risks at the company level, which can be controlled through diversified holdings. Funds are portfolios of stocks, and the risks in this regard are relatively small. Risk control cannot rely solely on simple diversification. For example, if you buy a bunch of funds that tend to favor stocks, although the proportion of individual funds may be very small, the risk of the portfolio in terms of the \"favoring factor\" is very high. Once the favoring collapses, the entire fund portfolio will have a great pullback/retracement risk. In that case, it may not be as good as choosing one fund for each large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap fund, as the risk is more diversified. So,<b>Fund risk needs to penetrate into the underlying style to diversify.</b></p><p>So what is the essence of a fund?</p><p>Yerle believes that the fund remains unchanged.<b>Essentially, a fund manager's so-called circle of competence includes personality, investment system, information sources, and investment model.</b>After years of evolution, it has become difficult for fund managers to classify themselves using simple investment styles such as \"large and small caps,\" \"value growth,\" and \"industry themes.\" Such classifications are less stable and require further attribution of fund returns to summarize the fund manager's stock selection logic and reveal their true capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7147ee6f0c9e846a286b58749c009cb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>What kind of money do mutual funds actually make?</p><p>After attributing the returns of public funds in his report, Ye Erle concluded that fund returns include money that fund managers cannot stably earn, money that is inevitably lost, and money that can be stably earned.</p><p>First, the money a fund earns is unstable in terms of market capitalization and valuation. I've only made money in two waves in terms of market capitalization: one was with a small market capitalization in 2014-2016, and the other was with a large market capitalization from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. Market capitalization is very difficult to grasp. In terms of valuation, mutual funds favor overvalued stocks, which brought negative returns before 2019 and positive returns afterward, and the money earned in terms of valuation is not stable.</p><p>Furthermore, mutual funds prefer stocks with high volatility and liquidity, which leads to long-term losses. High volatility refers to the fact that a stock has risen and fallen sharply in the past, which can lead to trading losses. Public funds, constrained by their large size and publicly offered nature, must buy highly liquid stocks. High liquidity corresponds to high pricing efficiency, and the duration of quick-logic money in these stocks has been shortening in recent years.<b>Public funds find it difficult to engage in high-frequency trading and make money from such fast-paced logic, so they basically hand it over to private high-frequency traders.</b></p><p>Therefore, neither money with market capitalization, valuation, nor money with high volatility and liquidity is something that most fund managers can stably control. Yerle believes that<b>When buying funds, one should pay more attention to the fund manager's ability to make stable profits.</b></p><p>Then<b>If mutual funds cannot make quick money, they can only make slow money.</b>Slow-logic money is reflected in the returns of two styles:<b>Momentum and growth.</b>Momentum refers to a logic that can only lead to a steady rise in stock prices over the past 12 months if it develops gradually. Yerle calls this characteristic of steady rise momentum. Growth means that a company has growth potential, and verifying growth potential takes time and thus relies on slow logic.</p><p>Regarding making money from the growth logic, Ye Erle summarized three advantages: (1) The growth logic needs time to be verified and cannot be fully reacted to in the short term, leaving fund managers enough time; (2) The logic of growth will be realized in the short term, which can be verified in stages according to the quarterly report. Each verification can realize some excess returns and make the stock rise continuously. (3) The logic of growth is more verifiable than the logic of value, because the regression of valuation depends on many external macro or market factors. The logic of growth, such as the judgment of the company’s growth rate over 5 years, will definitely have a fact in the next 5 years to verify whether what was said 5 years ago was correct or not.</p><p>Yerle believes that<b>The primary purpose of mutual funds is to predict company performance and profit from growth logic.</b>Because most public funds currently focus on short-term performance assessments, growth stocks are more cost-effective than value stocks: it may take 1 to 3 years for value to return to earn excess returns, and the timing is highly uncertain, while growth stocks can logically realize their returns every quarter.</p><p>From a strategic perspective, Ye Erle introduced another factor that enables funds to make money at the company level in the long term, in addition to performance growth—analyst enthusiasm. Analyst enthusiasm refers to the fact that fund managers typically pay close attention to analysts' recommendations, thereby translating them into their own investment logic.<b>The advantage of having access to information compared to the public is also a reason why mutual funds make money in the long run, as fund managers have faster channels to receive information.</b></p><p>In general, mutual funds in<b>Momentum, Growth, Analyst Sentiment</b>These factors generate long-term profits and are where fund managers' capabilities lie. However, style-based returns such as market capitalization and valuation, as well as trading-based returns such as high volatility and high liquidity, are beyond the control of fund managers.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cf5bac55700f0cdf8740d80785377cf\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>After understanding the sources of fund returns, how should we proceed when it comes to classifying fund manager competency labels and constructing fund portfolios?</p><p>Yerle uses examples to show us how to analyze a fund. Taking a well-performing fund this year as an example, he quantified the fund's returns, thus summarizing the ability labels that fund managers possess.</p><p>First, Yerle completely broke down the fund's returns into four major sources of income. The fund's performance in \"strategic returns\" was average, but its contribution in \"dynamic returns\" was significant. This means that the fund manager's overall stock selection ability was average, but his swing trading ability was strong. The fund also contributes significantly to \"industry returns,\" indicating that it has chosen a good industry. Based on this, fund managers can be labeled with: dynamic return capabilities and industry allocation capabilities.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96be149643d87dd279b716450ccb6797\" tg-width=\"717\" tg-height=\"513\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Next, we analyzed the fund's \"style returns.\" Since changing fund managers in 2020, the fund's style has shifted to small and medium-sized market capitalization, high momentum, high volatility, high valuation, and high growth, and the style is stable. We found that the fund manager likes to buy small-cap stocks and popular sectors. This labeled him: small to medium market capitalization, popular sector investment, and historically stable style.</p><p>Let's look at the characteristics of industry returns: the concentration of holdings is high, with pharmaceuticals buying nearly 50% of the position and machinery buying nearly 40%. Once you are optimistic about the industry, you bet heavily. In terms of industry switching, they are highly sensitive to cycles, shifting significantly to machinery and chemicals in the second quarter of last year, while the market as a whole paid close attention to these two industries in the fourth quarter. Based on this, it can be labeled as industry concentration.</p><p>Finally, it was observed that the fund had low exposure to the analyst sentiment factor in the second quarter of last year, which means that it was earlier than analysts expected, and its subsequent operations were the opposite of analysts' recommendations. The more analysts recommended it, the more it sold, indicating that it was sensitive to left-side/information changes.</p><p>Based on this, Yerle concluded that the fund manager demonstrated [misconduct] during the management of this fund from January 2020 to March 2021.<b>Strong dynamic investment capabilities and a small to mid-cap investment style.</b>It was able to quickly process market information, decisively and concentratedly adjust positions at critical points on the left and right sides, conduct effective meso-level industry allocation and dynamic individual stock operations, invest in popular sectors with relatively small market capitalizations, and avoid the crowded blue-chip sectors at the time.</p><p>After analyzing such a fund manager, Ye Erle believes that one can focus on the \"personality\" of this fund manager, find similar fund managers, and build a portfolio.</p><p>For example, we could build a portfolio of fund managers who all have strong dynamic return capabilities, or bring out a certain type of fund manager who also have strong stock selection and industry allocation capabilities, continue to track them, and analyze what kind of market this portfolio is suitable for.<b>When you need a fund manager with certain characteristics, Guosheng Metal Machinery can use quantitative methods to select them from a portfolio of fund managers.</b></p><p>Guosheng Metal Machinery has built a long-term tracking fund portfolio on Wind: Guosheng Fund Selection Strategy, which has performed very well in the past two years.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a439a13ff398b1ae2bd7eae1b60978ee\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Data source: wind)</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb201d1d3189ee8ec2a861a447ce715c\" tg-width=\"388\" tg-height=\"169\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Data source: wind)</p><p>This method of classifying fund managers' abilities is an important contribution to Ye Erle's research report. He redefined the dimensions of fund managers, dividing them into various abilities and investment logics. Compared to the previous approach of dividing fund managers by industry and simple style, this method is more stable.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0df7a1b499d59e3ea2351cf743665be\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>For ordinary investors, they should also pay more attention to the various abilities possessed by fund managers when buying funds. Our official WeChat account, \"Yuanchuan Investment Review,\" frequently updates with research and interviews with fund managers, serving as a window for everyone to understand the circle of competence of fund managers.</p><p>Through continuous learning, you will learn which fund managers are good at stock trading, which are good at stock selection, and which industries have strong allocation capabilities, so that you can choose funds that meet your preferences.</p><p>For capabilities that fund managers cannot grasp, such as market capitalization, we can diversify fund risk by building portfolios by combining funds with different market styles (such as large-cap and small-cap).</p><p>However, when building a fund portfolio, everyone's expected returns and risk appetite are different. Understanding yourself and allocating funds according to your own needs are the most important things.</p><p>Finally, Yerle gave ordinary fund investors...<b>Some suggestions:</b></p><p>1. Do not blindly follow trends and buy funds recommended on Alipay's homepage. Be cautious when everyone else is buying.</p><p>2. Don't expect funds with a size exceeding 5 billion yuan to generate strong excess returns outside of the style industry. Guosheng Metal Machinery conducted a test on fund size. On average, the fund's alpha is strongest between 500 and 2 billion yuan under management. Once the fund manager's management scale becomes particularly large, the alpha is likely to decline.</p><p>3. If fund investors lack clear judgment ability, it is recommended to invest regularly to diversify costs and reduce their sensitivity to the win rate.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/am8U1F6q6VGz2YRds9RHEA\">远川投资评论</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/753c9aba3202037bc97463c545d5d015","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/am8U1F6q6VGz2YRds9RHEA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161895834","content_text":"有“锂”走遍天下，无“锂”寸步难行，最近，在碳中和政策的持续发酵下，作为新能源电池原料的锂，受到了市场的狂热追捧。“锂爷爷”“钴奶奶”发威，新能源板块大涨。不少投资者看到涨势大好的新能源板块开始蠢蠢欲动，于是去寻找一只新能源主题基金，准备买入。\n“部分投资者买基金是先自己看好一些板块，比如消费军工之类的，然后再在市场中去找与自己想法持仓最像的基金经理，然后去买它，这有点本末倒置了”国盛金工的叶尔乐说，“对同一个股或行业的配置，每个基金经理的逻辑可能完全不一样，最终能赚到的钱也完全不一样”。\n叶尔乐认为，我们常常会问基金经理“买了什么”而不知道“为什么买”，而后一个问题可能更为重要。最近，他的一篇研究报告《公募基金究竟赚的什么钱—基金ALPHA进化史系列报告》引起了业内广泛关注，受到多家机构的一致好评。他在报告中详细分析了基金的收益来源，并介绍了不同于传统的划分基金经理能力的方法。\n\n国盛金工分析师 叶尔乐\n上个月，我们远川研究所对话了国盛金工分析师叶尔乐，对公募基金究竟赚的是什么钱进行了一系列的探讨，希望通过这次交谈，能够就“买基金”这件事给投资者们带来新的启发。\n以下，是叶尔乐对买基金买的是什么、基金经理具备哪些能力、怎么去构建基金组合等问题的一些看法。\n\n很多人买基金时，会问到“这个基金涨这么多还能买吗？”叶尔乐给出了回答：买基金和买股票不一样，股票不宜追高，但基金在某种情况下是可以“追高”的。总体来说，叶尔乐列举了基金与股票的三个区别，分别体现在定价、估值、风险分散方式上。\n股票的定价是由众人根据市场公开数据进行预期交换、预期博弈得到的结果，而基金的定价是由基金经理一个人决定的。股票要涨，是越来越多的人被某一叙事或逻辑说服而买入，基金要涨，是需要基金经理有提前感知到这样逻辑的能力，提前众人买入股票，并在众人买进来时卖掉。\n股票有明确的估值，基金没有净值意义上的估值问题。股票涨多了会跌，跌多了会涨，而基金并非涨得好的未来表现一定差，也不是以前表现差的未来一定就表现好。买基金有个外推性很强的指标，叫ALPHA中长期动量，意思是过去好的未来好，其本质就是基金经理的能力。只有基金经理某一块能力是稳定的，才能在某一细分收益上有长期动量，而某一细分收益上的长期动量也反证了基金在这类能力上是稳定的。\n股票具有公司层面的特质风险，能通过分散持有来控制，基金是股票的组合，这方面风险已经较小，其风险的控制不能仅靠简单的分散。比如买一堆偏抱团股的基金，虽然可能单个基金占比很小，但组合在“抱团因子”上的风险则非常高，一旦抱团瓦解，整个基金组合都有很大回撤风险，那这样可能还不如大盘中盘小盘各挑一个基金，风险更分散。所以，基金的风险需要穿透到底层风格来分散。\n那么基金的本质是什么呢？\n叶尔乐认为，基金不变的本质是基金经理包括性格、投资体系、信息来源以及投资模式等所谓的能力圈。经过多年进化，基金经理已经很难用“大小盘”、“价值成长”、“行业主题”等简单投资风格去划分，这样的划分稳定性较弱，需要进一步对基金收益进行归因，从而归纳出基金经理的选股逻辑，划分出基金经理的真正能力。\n\n公募基金究竟赚哪些钱？\n叶尔乐在报告中对公募基金的收益进行归因后得出，基金收益中有基金经理不能稳定赚到的钱、不可避免要亏掉的钱、以及能够稳定赚到的钱。\n首先，基金在市值和估值方面赚的钱是不稳定的。市值上只赚过两波钱，一波是14~16年小市值的钱，一波是去年底到今年初的大市值的钱，市值的钱很难把握。在估值上，公募基金偏好高估值股票，这在19年之前带来的是负收益，之后是正收益，估值层面赚的钱也不是稳定的。\n再者，公募基金偏好高波动性和高流动性股票，这使得基金长期亏钱。高波动性是指股票在过去大涨大跌，这会引起交易上的损失。而公募基金受制于大体量和公开募集的属性，必须买高流动性票，高流动性对应高定价效率，快逻辑的钱在这些股票上持续时间近年在越来越短，公募难以做高频交易，很难赚到这种快逻辑的钱，基本将其让渡给私募高频交易者。\n因此，无论是市值、估值的钱，或是高波动性、高流动性的钱，都不是大部分基金经理能够稳定把握的。叶尔乐认为，买基金时更应该关注的是基金经理稳定赚钱的能力。\n那么公募在不能赚快钱的情况下，只能赚慢钱。慢逻辑的钱体现在两种风格收益上：动量和成长。所谓动量，是指一个逻辑只有是慢慢发酵的，最终才可能使股价在过去12个月稳定上涨，这种稳稳上涨的特征叶尔乐称之为动量。而成长就是公司具有成长性，成长性的验证需要时间从而也靠慢逻辑。\n关于赚成长逻辑的钱，叶尔乐总结了三个优点：（1）成长的逻辑需要时间验证，无法在短期反应充分，留给基金经理足够的时间；（2）成长的逻辑短期会有兑现，即可根据季报阶段性验证，每次验证能兑现部分超额收益，使股票连续上涨；（3）成长的逻辑相比价值逻辑是强可验证的，因为估值的回归依赖很多外部的宏观或市场因素，而成长逻辑比如对公司5年增速的判断，那么在未来5年一定存在一个事实验证5年前的话对与否。\n叶尔乐认为，公募基金最主要是预测公司业绩，赚成长逻辑的钱。因为目前公募多以短期业绩考核为主，成长比价值更具有性价比：价值回归可能要等1到3年才赚到超额收益，时间高度不确定，而成长股每个季度都能有逻辑兑现。\n从策略视角，叶尔乐介绍了除业绩增长外，基金在公司层面长期赚钱的另一个因子—分析师热度。分析师热度是指基金经理通常会密切关注分析师的推荐，从而转化为自己的投资逻辑。相比于公众的信息来源优势也是公募基金长期赚钱的原因，基金经理拥有更快接收信息的渠道。\n总的来说，公募基金在动量、成长、分析师热度这些因子上是长期赚钱的，也是基金经理的能力所在，而市值和估值这种风格类收益，以及高波动性高流动性这种交易类收益则是基金经理无法把握的。\n\n在了解了基金收益来源之后，具体到基金经理能力标签的划分、基金组合的构建时又该如何操作呢？\n叶尔乐通过举例来告诉我们如何去分析一只基金。他以今年表现较好的一只基金为例，对这只基金的收益做了量化归因，从而归纳出了基金经理所具备的能力标签。\n首先叶尔乐将基金收益完全分解成四大收益来源，该基金在“策略收益”收益上表现一般，“动态收益”上贡献较大，这意味着基金经理总体选股能力一般，但做波段能力较强。该基金还在“行业收益”上贡献较大，意味着它行业选得好。据此，可以给基金经理贴上标签：动态收益能力、行业配置能力。\n\n接着分析基金的“风格收益”，该基金自2020年换基金经理后，风格切换为中小市值、高动量、高波动性、高估值、高成长，且风格稳健，发现该基金经理喜欢买小票、买热门板块。由此给他贴上标签：中小市值、热门板块投资、历史风格稳定。\n再观察行业收益的特征：持仓集中度较高，医药买了将近50%的仓位，机械买了近40%，一旦看好行业，下注比较重；行业切换上，对周期敏锐度强，在去年二季度大笔切换到机械和化工上，而市场整体高度关注这两个行业是在四季度。据此，可贴标签：行业集中。\n最后，观察到该基金去年二季度在分析师热度因子上暴露较低，意味着他比分析师预期更早，并且他的后期操作与分析师推荐是相逆的，分析师越推荐的他越卖，说明他：左侧/信息变化敏感。\n据此，叶尔乐得出结论：该基金经理在2020.01-2021.03管理这只基金期间表现出了较强的动态投资能力和中小市值投资风格。其能够快速处理市场信息，在左侧右侧临界点果决且集中的调整仓位，进行有效的中观行业配置和个股动态操作，投资较为热门但市值偏中小的板块，避免了当时拥挤的大白马板块。\n分析了这样一位基金经理后，叶尔乐认为，可以以这个基金经理的“个性”为目标，把同类的基金经理都找出来，构建一个组合。\n比如构建一个同样都是动态收益能力较强的基金经理的组合，或者把同样都是选股能力强的、同样都是行业配置能力强的某一类基金经理调出来，继续跟踪，分析这个组合适应什么样的市场。当你需要什么特征的基金经理，国盛金工可以通过量化的方式，将其从基金经理的组合中筛选出来。\n国盛金工在Wind上构建有长期跟踪的基金组合：国盛选基策略，该组合这两年收益表现十分不错。\n\n(数据来源：wind)\n\n(数据来源：wind)\n这种划分基金经理能力的方法，是叶尔乐这篇研报的重要贡献。他将基金经理的维度做了一个重新的划分，划分为各种各样的能力和投资逻辑，相比以往按行业、按简单风格来划分基金经理，这种方式更为稳定。\n\n对于普通投资者来说，在买基金时也应该更多地关注基金经理所具备的各种能力。我们的公众号“远川投资评论”经常会更新一些基金经理的研究和访谈，可以作为大家了解基金经理能力圈的一个窗口。\n通过不断学习，你就会知道哪些基金经理擅长股票交易，哪些擅长选股，还有哪些行业配置能力较强，从而去选择符合我们偏好类型的基金。\n对于基金经理把握不了的能力，比如市值上的能力，我们可以通过搭配不同市场风格（比如大盘小盘）的基金来构建组合从而分散基金风险。\n不过在构建基金组合时，每个人的预期收益和风险偏好不一样，了解自己，根据自己的需求去配置基金才是最重要的。\n最后，叶尔乐对普通基民给出了一些建议：\n1. 切勿盲目跟风购买支付宝首页推荐基金，当所有人都在买时需要谨慎。\n2. 不要期待规模超50亿的基金能带来很强的风格行业以外超额收益。国盛金工对基金规模做过一个测试，基金的阿尔法平均来看在管理规模5~20亿之间最强，一旦基金经理管理的规模变的特别大，阿尔法大概率会有所衰竭。\n3. 基民在没有明显判断能力的情况下，建议定投分散成本，降低胜率敏感性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}