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Altera
Altera
·
2022-08-26
I disagree, this is a dip to buy
Nvidia Stock: Get Out Now
SummaryNvidia reported horrible Q2 numbers and provided disappointing guidance for the next quarter.
Nvidia Stock: Get Out Now
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Altera
Altera
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2021-12-28
Naise
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Altera
Altera
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2021-09-08
Hmmmm
Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.
'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.
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Altera
Altera
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2021-07-28
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Altera
Altera
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2021-07-27
Sure anot
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2021-07-27
Ok can
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2021-07-27
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disagree, this is a dip to buy ","listText":"I disagree, this is a dip to buy ","text":"I disagree, this is a dip to buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9995407490","repostId":"1130817581","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130817581","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1661486292,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1130817581?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-08-26 11:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Stock: Get Out Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130817581","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryNvidia reported horrible Q2 numbers and provided disappointing guidance for the next quarter.","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Nvidia reported horrible Q2 numbers and provided disappointing guidance for the next quarter.</li><li>However, with cryptocurrency mining GPU demand in deep decline, Nvidia's problems could last longer than a few quarters.</li><li>Nvidia's valuation is still high, and earnings estimates should see more downward revisions.</li><li>I'm comfortable about revisiting this stock in the $100-120 range, but for now, Nvidia is a sell.</li></ul><p>NVIDIA Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) market cap reached an absurd high of more than $800 billion during the tech-top in November 2021. During this bubble phase, Nvidia's stock hit an all-time high of around $350, trading at more than 100 times TTM non-GAAP EPS (approximately 40 times TTM sales). Then, the Fed pricked the ultra-high multiple bubble, and many stocks, including Nvidia, crashed.</p><p>I warned about the "Epic Drop" in my late-November article, and one of my prime examples of the coming crash was Nvidia. However, despite being one of the most shockingly overvalued stocks of its time, Nvidia's problems run much deeper than the typical temporary overvalued company.</p><p>Nvidia reported earnings in line with its preannounced figures but well below prior guidance and analysts' estimates. Moreover, the company's guidance was disappointing. Nvidia is not only suffering from overvaluation problems and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The company has entered a severe decline phase, and the market is probably underestimating how serious the situation is for Nvidia.</p><p>The company faces several challenging headwinds to its top line, and its bottom line may continue deteriorating in the coming quarters. Therefore, we will probably see earnings estimates and EPS decrease more than anticipated. Meanwhile, the stock should attempt to find a base, but a reasonable entry price may be around $100-120.</p><p><b>The Bubble Days Are Over - More Downside Ahead</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1f84840d4c1f577471f0d35df1f240\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>NVDA(StockCharts.com)</p><p>This is only a three-year chart of Nvidia. So, we see that before the recent decline phase Nvidia skyrocketed by nearly 10X in just around two years. So, what occurred in this time frame? Why did we see such remarkable demand for Nvidia stock?</p><p>We can point to several elements. Nvidia weathered the coronavirus slow down better than many other companies as much of its gaming business is related to gaming. Then, Nvidia received a post-coronavirus recovery boost as well. The company's revenues surged by 40-60% or more in many quarters in 2020/2021, and investors loved its performance and stock.</p><p>The insatiable demand pushed the stock to grossly overbought and ludicrously overvalued levels (roughly 40 times trailing sales). However, what was the true catalyst behind this move? The company claimed that it benefited from surging gaming-related revenues. However, earlier this year, Nvidia settled with the SECfor failing to disclose its cryptocurrency-related sales.</p><p>A significant portion of Nvidia's GPU sales went towards cryptocurrency mining. Unfortunately, we cannot know precisely how much of the GPU sales were cryptocurrency related as the company did not disclose the numbers. However, we know that Nvidia's GPUs were widely used in Ethereum and other cryptocurrency mining, but sadly for the company, these sales are ending.</p><p><b>The End Of An Era</b></p><p>Nvidia's revenues benefited greatly from surging Ethereum and other cryptocurrency-related sales. When we look at Nvidia's surging sales in 2020/2021, this time frame coincides with the significant bull market in Ethereum and other digital assets. However, now the company is reporting sharp drops in sales. Nvidia's cryptocurrency mining processor ("CMP") sales were down by66% YoY to just $140 million last quarter. While the company has a CMP GPU line dedicated to cryptocurrency mining, some of its gaming GPUs also went to cryptocurrency miners.</p><p>The massive problem Nvidia faces now is Ethereum's pivot away from GPU mining. Ethereum has been the driver of cryptocurrency-related mining GPU sales in recent years. However, Ethereum is moving away from intensive GPU mining, and the switch from proof-of-work to the proof-of-stake protocol should be complete soon.</p><p>Proof-of-stake is far less intensive and requires nothing near the computing power of proof-of-work. Therefore, the Ethereum network will not need a growing number of GPUs. On the contrary, as we advance, there will probably be a remarkably high number of unneeded GPUs.</p><p>Another reason why Nvidia's revenues spiked so rapidly was the GPU shortage. You'd be lucky to get a quality GPU at MSRPin 2020/2021. Due to the GPU shortage, Nvidia's graphic cards could sell for two times MSRP or higher in many cases throughout this time frame. Naturally, this phenomenon significantly contributed to the company's skyrocketing revenues. We can presume that this dynamic occurred partially due to the substantial demand from the cryptocurrency segment.</p><p><b>What We Are Left With Now</b></p><p>Ethereum is moving away from GPU mining. Bitcoin and other digital assets rely more on ASIC miners over GPUs. We see Nvidia's CMP GPU sales are crashing, and general "gaming" revenues have declined by 33%YoY. Therefore, Nvidia faces a severe problem. A substantial portion of the company's gains may be gone permanently.</p><p>Additionally, Nvidia will no longer benefit from the cryptocurrency segment's growth. Moreover, the company will no longer benefit from the surging GPU prices it saw in 2020/2021. Instead, Nvidia faces the problem of cheaper GPUs, lower margins, and worsening profitability as the company moves forward.</p><p><b>Nvidia RTX 3080 Price Decline</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25c65b3c0628b532f5748f8d4c917726\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Nvidia RTX 3080(the verge.com )</p><p>We've seen a price drop of about 65% for Nvidia's RTX 3080 GPU since the price peaked last year. This image captures Nvidia's GPU market and the company's problem. We will probably see prices stabilize and possibly move up marginally. However, we will not likely see significant price rises any time soon. After years of shortages, the market is oversaturated with Nvidia's GPUs. We are now seeing the opposite effect and probably have not yet seen the full impact of the oversupply. We must consider that unwanted mining GPUs could further flood the market, exacerbating the supply/demand issue.</p><p><b>We See It In The Results</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d7cfe94a82a2e7b2f943115d8e70bcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Nvidia 8-K(investor.nvidia.com)</p><p>Nvidia's Q2 results were shockingly poor, and "challenging macroeconomic conditions" do not justify a 19% QoQ revenue drop. Less than one year ago, Nvidia was valued at more than 100 times trailing earnings and now sees YoY growth of just 3% YoY. Moreover, despite only a 3% revenue gain, the company's operating expenses surged by 36% YoY. Therefore, we see gross margins down substantially, operating income down by 80%, and net income down by 72%.</p><p><b>Now, Let's Check the Guidance</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/886574b4a6331498106528a2834f5675\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"196\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Nvidia Q3 guidance(investor.nvidia.com)</p><p>The company guided to just $5.9 billion in revenues for Q3, 15% below the consensus forecast of$6.95 billion. $5.9 billion will be the company's second consecutive QoQ decline, equating to a YoY drop of 17%. Additionally, the company guided GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 62.4% and 65%. However, such a substantial rebound in gross margin will be challenging to achieve, and the company may report gross margins closer to 45-50%, substantially worse than its forecasts. Nvidia's GPU segment may continue struggling, leading to lower profitability and a worsening long-term image for the company.</p><p><b>Valuation - Still Too High</b></p><p>Nvidia has gone through a severe repricing phase. While the stock is not trading near 100 times TTM earnings, it's still expensive. Also, we must consider that the market began revising Nvidia's earnings lower and may not be done.</p><p><b>EPS Revisions</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a56bd255c30f267c1fc7d8825b330556\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>EPS revisions(SeekingAlpha.com )</p><p>We see that the EPS forecast trend is lower here. However, considering that Nvidia recently came out with a horrible preannouncement and even more recently provided disappointing guidance, estimates should still go lower. Furthermore, EPS estimates may be too optimistic, as it is unclear whether Nvidia will have such impressive EPS growth in future years.</p><p><b>EPS Estimates</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/699c23f05dea3cbeb873da0db62a239d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"268\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>EPS estimates(SeekingAlpha.com)</p><p>One factor seems clear. The stock is still too expensive here. With an expected EPS of $3.75 this year, Nvidia's P/E ratio is 45, still very high. EPS projections are for $5.46 next year. However, this figure seems too high, cannot be trusted, and will likely get revised lower. Nevertheless, even if we apply the $5.46 EPS estimates, we still arrive at a P/E of more than 30 for Nvidia. Over thirty times questionable projected earnings is a high price for a company facing significant top and bottom line pressures and will probably see more earnings estimate declines.</p><p>I anticipate that Nvidia could earn towards the lower end of current estimates, roughly $4 in EPS in fiscal 2024. Also, Nvidia deserves a lower P/E multiple due to poor performance and uncertainty. I'm comfortable with a forward P/E of 25-30 on a projected EPS of $4 for next year. This dynamic brings us to a buy-in price target of $100-120. In this range, Nvidia becomes a buy, but now at $170, the stock is a sell in my view. I will revisit this stock in the $100-120 range. Until then, there are better stocks to buy.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Stock: Get Out Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Stock: Get Out Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-08-26 11:58 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537078-nvidia-get-out-now?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A5><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryNvidia reported horrible Q2 numbers and provided disappointing guidance for the next quarter.However, with cryptocurrency mining GPU demand in deep decline, Nvidia's problems could last longer ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537078-nvidia-get-out-now?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A5\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4537078-nvidia-get-out-now?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Ahome%7Csection%3Aportfolio%7Csection_asset%3Aheadlines%7Cline%3A5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130817581","content_text":"SummaryNvidia reported horrible Q2 numbers and provided disappointing guidance for the next quarter.However, with cryptocurrency mining GPU demand in deep decline, Nvidia's problems could last longer than a few quarters.Nvidia's valuation is still high, and earnings estimates should see more downward revisions.I'm comfortable about revisiting this stock in the $100-120 range, but for now, Nvidia is a sell.NVIDIA Corporation's (NASDAQ:NVDA) market cap reached an absurd high of more than $800 billion during the tech-top in November 2021. During this bubble phase, Nvidia's stock hit an all-time high of around $350, trading at more than 100 times TTM non-GAAP EPS (approximately 40 times TTM sales). Then, the Fed pricked the ultra-high multiple bubble, and many stocks, including Nvidia, crashed.I warned about the \"Epic Drop\" in my late-November article, and one of my prime examples of the coming crash was Nvidia. However, despite being one of the most shockingly overvalued stocks of its time, Nvidia's problems run much deeper than the typical temporary overvalued company.Nvidia reported earnings in line with its preannounced figures but well below prior guidance and analysts' estimates. Moreover, the company's guidance was disappointing. Nvidia is not only suffering from overvaluation problems and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The company has entered a severe decline phase, and the market is probably underestimating how serious the situation is for Nvidia.The company faces several challenging headwinds to its top line, and its bottom line may continue deteriorating in the coming quarters. Therefore, we will probably see earnings estimates and EPS decrease more than anticipated. Meanwhile, the stock should attempt to find a base, but a reasonable entry price may be around $100-120.The Bubble Days Are Over - More Downside AheadNVDA(StockCharts.com)This is only a three-year chart of Nvidia. So, we see that before the recent decline phase Nvidia skyrocketed by nearly 10X in just around two years. So, what occurred in this time frame? Why did we see such remarkable demand for Nvidia stock?We can point to several elements. Nvidia weathered the coronavirus slow down better than many other companies as much of its gaming business is related to gaming. Then, Nvidia received a post-coronavirus recovery boost as well. The company's revenues surged by 40-60% or more in many quarters in 2020/2021, and investors loved its performance and stock.The insatiable demand pushed the stock to grossly overbought and ludicrously overvalued levels (roughly 40 times trailing sales). However, what was the true catalyst behind this move? The company claimed that it benefited from surging gaming-related revenues. However, earlier this year, Nvidia settled with the SECfor failing to disclose its cryptocurrency-related sales.A significant portion of Nvidia's GPU sales went towards cryptocurrency mining. Unfortunately, we cannot know precisely how much of the GPU sales were cryptocurrency related as the company did not disclose the numbers. However, we know that Nvidia's GPUs were widely used in Ethereum and other cryptocurrency mining, but sadly for the company, these sales are ending.The End Of An EraNvidia's revenues benefited greatly from surging Ethereum and other cryptocurrency-related sales. When we look at Nvidia's surging sales in 2020/2021, this time frame coincides with the significant bull market in Ethereum and other digital assets. However, now the company is reporting sharp drops in sales. Nvidia's cryptocurrency mining processor (\"CMP\") sales were down by66% YoY to just $140 million last quarter. While the company has a CMP GPU line dedicated to cryptocurrency mining, some of its gaming GPUs also went to cryptocurrency miners.The massive problem Nvidia faces now is Ethereum's pivot away from GPU mining. Ethereum has been the driver of cryptocurrency-related mining GPU sales in recent years. However, Ethereum is moving away from intensive GPU mining, and the switch from proof-of-work to the proof-of-stake protocol should be complete soon.Proof-of-stake is far less intensive and requires nothing near the computing power of proof-of-work. Therefore, the Ethereum network will not need a growing number of GPUs. On the contrary, as we advance, there will probably be a remarkably high number of unneeded GPUs.Another reason why Nvidia's revenues spiked so rapidly was the GPU shortage. You'd be lucky to get a quality GPU at MSRPin 2020/2021. Due to the GPU shortage, Nvidia's graphic cards could sell for two times MSRP or higher in many cases throughout this time frame. Naturally, this phenomenon significantly contributed to the company's skyrocketing revenues. We can presume that this dynamic occurred partially due to the substantial demand from the cryptocurrency segment.What We Are Left With NowEthereum is moving away from GPU mining. Bitcoin and other digital assets rely more on ASIC miners over GPUs. We see Nvidia's CMP GPU sales are crashing, and general \"gaming\" revenues have declined by 33%YoY. Therefore, Nvidia faces a severe problem. A substantial portion of the company's gains may be gone permanently.Additionally, Nvidia will no longer benefit from the cryptocurrency segment's growth. Moreover, the company will no longer benefit from the surging GPU prices it saw in 2020/2021. Instead, Nvidia faces the problem of cheaper GPUs, lower margins, and worsening profitability as the company moves forward.Nvidia RTX 3080 Price DeclineNvidia RTX 3080(the verge.com )We've seen a price drop of about 65% for Nvidia's RTX 3080 GPU since the price peaked last year. This image captures Nvidia's GPU market and the company's problem. We will probably see prices stabilize and possibly move up marginally. However, we will not likely see significant price rises any time soon. After years of shortages, the market is oversaturated with Nvidia's GPUs. We are now seeing the opposite effect and probably have not yet seen the full impact of the oversupply. We must consider that unwanted mining GPUs could further flood the market, exacerbating the supply/demand issue.We See It In The ResultsNvidia 8-K(investor.nvidia.com)Nvidia's Q2 results were shockingly poor, and \"challenging macroeconomic conditions\" do not justify a 19% QoQ revenue drop. Less than one year ago, Nvidia was valued at more than 100 times trailing earnings and now sees YoY growth of just 3% YoY. Moreover, despite only a 3% revenue gain, the company's operating expenses surged by 36% YoY. Therefore, we see gross margins down substantially, operating income down by 80%, and net income down by 72%.Now, Let's Check the GuidanceNvidia Q3 guidance(investor.nvidia.com)The company guided to just $5.9 billion in revenues for Q3, 15% below the consensus forecast of$6.95 billion. $5.9 billion will be the company's second consecutive QoQ decline, equating to a YoY drop of 17%. Additionally, the company guided GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 62.4% and 65%. However, such a substantial rebound in gross margin will be challenging to achieve, and the company may report gross margins closer to 45-50%, substantially worse than its forecasts. Nvidia's GPU segment may continue struggling, leading to lower profitability and a worsening long-term image for the company.Valuation - Still Too HighNvidia has gone through a severe repricing phase. While the stock is not trading near 100 times TTM earnings, it's still expensive. Also, we must consider that the market began revising Nvidia's earnings lower and may not be done.EPS RevisionsEPS revisions(SeekingAlpha.com )We see that the EPS forecast trend is lower here. However, considering that Nvidia recently came out with a horrible preannouncement and even more recently provided disappointing guidance, estimates should still go lower. Furthermore, EPS estimates may be too optimistic, as it is unclear whether Nvidia will have such impressive EPS growth in future years.EPS EstimatesEPS estimates(SeekingAlpha.com)One factor seems clear. The stock is still too expensive here. With an expected EPS of $3.75 this year, Nvidia's P/E ratio is 45, still very high. EPS projections are for $5.46 next year. However, this figure seems too high, cannot be trusted, and will likely get revised lower. Nevertheless, even if we apply the $5.46 EPS estimates, we still arrive at a P/E of more than 30 for Nvidia. Over thirty times questionable projected earnings is a high price for a company facing significant top and bottom line pressures and will probably see more earnings estimate declines.I anticipate that Nvidia could earn towards the lower end of current estimates, roughly $4 in EPS in fiscal 2024. Also, Nvidia deserves a lower P/E multiple due to poor performance and uncertainty. I'm comfortable with a forward P/E of 25-30 on a projected EPS of $4 for next year. This dynamic brings us to a buy-in price target of $100-120. In this range, Nvidia becomes a buy, but now at $170, the stock is a sell in my view. I will revisit this stock in the $100-120 range. Until then, there are better stocks to buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9009253070,"gmtCreate":1640702199345,"gmtModify":1676533535057,"author":{"id":"4090406268906170","authorId":"4090406268906170","name":"Altera","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d78fb5fffa813b663f88fe89f435a0e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090406268906170","idStr":"4090406268906170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Naise","listText":"Naise","text":"Naise","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9009253070","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880454096,"gmtCreate":1631075514515,"gmtModify":1676530460745,"author":{"id":"4090406268906170","authorId":"4090406268906170","name":"Altera","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d78fb5fffa813b663f88fe89f435a0e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090406268906170","idStr":"4090406268906170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmm","listText":"Hmmmm","text":"Hmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/880454096","repostId":"2165368421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165368421","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631060195,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2165368421?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-09-08 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165368421","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management","content":"<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p>\n<p>\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p>\n<p>\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p>\n<p>She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p>\n<p>Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p>\n<p>\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p>\n<p>Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p>\n<p>The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p>\n<p>\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p>\n<p>Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p>\n<p>For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p>\n<p>\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-08 08:16 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2165368421","content_text":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.\nMorgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.\n\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.\n\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"\nShe suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"\nMegatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.\nA Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.\n\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"\nAlthough Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.\nThe tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.\nMeanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.\n\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"\nInvestors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.\nFor example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.\n\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801379542,"gmtCreate":1627485071586,"gmtModify":1703490965772,"author":{"id":"4090406268906170","authorId":"4090406268906170","name":"Altera","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d78fb5fffa813b663f88fe89f435a0e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090406268906170","idStr":"4090406268906170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/801379542","repostId":"2154360923","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809477420,"gmtCreate":1627391124660,"gmtModify":1703488971718,"author":{"id":"4090406268906170","authorId":"4090406268906170","name":"Altera","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d78fb5fffa813b663f88fe89f435a0e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090406268906170","idStr":"4090406268906170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":" Sure anot","listText":" Sure anot","text":"Sure anot","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809477420","repostId":"1154449552","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809477305,"gmtCreate":1627391086507,"gmtModify":1703488970426,"author":{"id":"4090406268906170","authorId":"4090406268906170","name":"Altera","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d78fb5fffa813b663f88fe89f435a0e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090406268906170","idStr":"4090406268906170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok can","listText":"Ok can","text":"Ok can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809477305","repostId":"1161960577","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809474060,"gmtCreate":1627391011650,"gmtModify":1703488968971,"author":{"id":"4090406268906170","authorId":"4090406268906170","name":"Altera","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d78fb5fffa813b663f88fe89f435a0e5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090406268906170","idStr":"4090406268906170"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/809474060","repostId":"1190390540","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4019,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"following","isTTM":true}
