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Amaxyap

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- AmaxyapAmaxyap
  ·2022-11-04
  good
  Is a global semiconductor winter coming?
  在硅周期下行的影响下，半导体行业的冬天来得早了一些。近期，半导体巨头纷纷发布2022年第三季度财报。整体来看，以超威半导体、英特尔为代表的芯片设计厂商业绩几乎都不及预期。即便是台积电、三星电子这样的晶
  Is a global semiconductor winter coming?
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- AmaxyapAmaxyap
  ·2022-10-31
  Hallo
  Unusual Movement | Citigroup's "Bearish" Outlook, XPeng Plunges! Big tech stocks such as Tesla fell
  摘要：美股指期货下跌，理想汽车、B站等热门中概股盘前走低；特斯拉、AMD等大型科技股多数下跌。10月31日，美股指期货下跌，道指期货跌0.29%，纳指期货跌0.67%，标普500指数期货跌0.45%。
  Unusual Movement | Citigroup's "Bearish" Outlook, XPeng Plunges! Big tech stocks such as Tesla fell
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- AmaxyapAmaxyap
  ·2022-10-31
  [财迷]
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- AmaxyapAmaxyap
  ·2022-10-29
  $纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
  2.56K Comment
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- AmaxyapAmaxyap
  ·2022-10-29
  $纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$
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Overall, with Chaowei Semiconductor,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The performance of chip design manufacturers, represented by..., almost all fell short of expectations.</p><p>Even<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>Such wafer manufacturing giants are also affected.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0QB8.UK\">ASML Corporation</a>Equipment manufacturers like Fanlin Semiconductor are less affected because they are slower to receive changes in downstream demand.</p><p>These companies are located at different stages of the semiconductor industry chain, but in this quarter's earnings reports or conference calls, almost all of them lowered their capital expenditures for next year.</p><p>This is the result of a \"domino effect\". Data from the Semiconductor Institute of America shows that since 1976, the global semiconductor industry has gone through seven major cycles and is currently in its eighth cycle. Looking back at the history of the semiconductor industry over the past half century, cyclical fluctuations have permeated the industry's history. It often starts with a supply and demand mismatch. After experiencing shortages, price increases, and investment in production expansion, it finally returns to a new round of supply and demand mismatch due to the concentrated release of production capacity.</p><p>Each cycle has its own unique characteristics. This cycle is a combination of the COVID-19 pandemic, political competition among major powers, and the global economic downturn, with more pronounced fluctuations.</p><p>A typical example is the unprecedented \"chip shortage\" in the past two years, which began with the COVID-19 pandemic, causing automakers to misjudge the situation, adjust their sales expectations, and then ask contract manufacturers to reduce production.</p><p>On the other hand, the pandemic has catalyzed the demand for working from home, leading to an increase in demand for consumer electronics. In addition, US sanctions have forced Huawei to stockpile chips on a large scale. This \"butterfly effect\" has also caused panic in the industry, resulting in another wave of chip stockpiling.</p><p>A wafer fab insider told Huxiu that last year, some foundries separated their production lines originally used to produce automotive electronics chips and switched to producing chips needed for consumer electronics. Currently, the chip cycle is declining, demand for consumer electronics is weak, and automotive chips remain in short supply, leading to a new adjustment in the supply chain. However, some industry insiders pointed out that the production capacity of some automotive chips also eased in the third quarter of this year.</p><p><b>Chip giants' performance fell short of expectations</b></p><p>On November 2nd, Beijing time, semiconductor company AMD released its Q3 2022 financial report, with revenue increasing by 29% year-on-year to $5.565 billion, lower than Wall Street's previous expectation of $6.5 billion. Under U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, net income was $66 million, a significant decrease of 93%.</p><p>AMD's weaker-than-expected financial report and declining net profit were mainly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics market, which accounts for the majority of global chip sales.</p><p>Research firm Future Horizons points out that mobile phones and personal computers account for almost half of the $600 billion worth of chips sold globally each year. In addition, according to statistics from Strategy Analytics, global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2022 were 297 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9%.</p><p>At the same time, the global PC market experienced its biggest quarterly decline in nearly 20 years. According to statistics from third-party consulting firm Gartner, global PC shipments totaled 68 million units in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfaef7d1129a07ac6320ee9eb3df2e3c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source : Strategy Analytics, Gartner</p><p>\"The PC market was very unstable in the third quarter. We expected the market to be weak, but it was weaker than we expected,\" said AMD CEO Lisa Su. She added that the consumer electronics market is currently the weakest, with AMD holding a 25.6% market share, and customers are generally becoming more cautious.</p><p>According to AMD's financial report, the client business unit, which is linked to its PC business, reported revenue of $1.02 billion this quarter, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40%. A stark contrast is that the business unit reported an operating loss of $26 million this quarter, compared to an operating profit of $490 million in the same period last year, representing an operating profit margin of 29%.</p><p>However, since Lisa Su took over AMD, the diversified business strategy she has set for the company is playing a key role. Although the client division has performed poorly, server chips and gaming chips have given AMD a bit of face in this financial report.</p><p>Financial reports show that AMD's data center business unit reported revenue of $1.609 billion this quarter, a year-over-year increase of 45%. This is mainly due to the outstanding performance of Xiaolong chips in the server market, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">Xilinx</a>And the benefits from the acquisition of another startup, Pensando Systems.</p><p>Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) was also affected by the consumer electronics market. The company released its Q3 2022 financial report a week ago, with revenue of $15.3 billion, a 20% year-over-year decrease. (miss the market expectation) Net profit was $1 billion, down 85% year-over-year, prompting Intel to lower its full-year guidance again.</p><p>The PC and server businesses, which have long been relied upon, both declined in the third quarter. PC business (CCG) revenue was $8.1 billion, a 17% year-over-year decrease; Server chip-related data center and artificial intelligence business (DCAI) declined 27% year-over-year to $4.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0356720a55199cca06eafaead68d973\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"215\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Intel</p><p>Although Intel still holds the top spot in the server chip market, it appears to be showing signs of loosening its grip. According to statistics from TrendForce, Intel's X86 server chip market share decreased by approximately 6 percentage points year-on-year over the past two quarters, mainly due to Meta...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The major customer transferred the server chip procurement order to AMD.</p><p>The main business is facing a downturn, sluggish growth, and is facing competition from all sides. Since taking office, Intel CEO Pat Kissinger has focused on expanding new growth curves for Intel. In March of last year, Intel released the IDM2.0 program, which mainly consists of three parts: an internal factory network, third-party production capacity, and a brand-new Intel foundry service.</p><p>Pat emphasized that IDM2.0 is a winning formula. On the one hand, it can leverage the internal factory network, and on the other hand, it can strategically utilize external contract manufacturers to deliver leading products and provide the industry with new advanced contract manufacturing capacity.</p><p>Recently, the Intel executive suggested that Intel could use its Ohio factory to support AMD and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Provide OEM services. In a subsequent statement, he said that Intel hopes to become Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The preferred provider.</p><p>However, industry insiders still express concerns that Intel's development of a contract manufacturing model will be a long and arduous process. Chip foundry and IDM are two completely different business models. Chip foundry needs to be closely linked to customers, grow together with them, and develop technologies. IDM, on the other hand, produces its own products and sets its own specifications. Even IDM factory<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>It took a long time to establish its own OEM model, and its yield rate is still criticized.</p><p>A very real problem is that nowadays, almost all customers of advanced manufacturing processes choose TSMC for OEM manufacturing. The cost of changing suppliers is extremely high, and the possibility is very small. How can Intel grab market share from TSMC? On the other hand, how can Intel convince its competitors to hand over their advanced process business with confidence and at the same time become Intel's customers?</p><p>In addition, Intel has been sluggish in its progress in advanced manufacturing processes. According to the latest report from TrendForce, due to the drag of Intel's 7 process, the current yield of the new generation Xeon processor Sapphire Rapids is estimated to be only about 50%-60%, and mass production has been postponed from the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year.</p><p>Intel may be able to undertake the contract manufacturing of some mature manufacturing processes, but advanced manufacturing processes are the core of high profits, and it will take time to succeed in this path, which has led to Intel's current awkward situation.</p><p>However, some senior figures in the chip industry told Huxiu that Intel is currently struggling to advance advanced manufacturing processes, and cooperating with external customers can help Intel accumulate some processes and know-how, which will be beneficial to its process improvement.</p><p>Over the past three years, the semiconductor industry has experienced an unprecedented \"chip shortage,\" and now it is facing weak demand for consumer electronics. Uncertainty remains the dominant factor in the global semiconductor market.</p><p><b>As the tide recedes, only TSMC isn't swimming naked?</b></p><p>Wafer fabs demonstrated remarkable resilience in the third quarter of this year.</p><p>Global contract manufacturing giant TSMC's third-quarter report shows that the company achieved revenue of US$20.2 billion during the period, a year-on-year increase of 35.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.4%, with an operating profit margin of 50.6%, both exceeding market expectations.</p><p>The company's strong performance this quarter is closely related to its leading customer, Apple. According to information released by TSMC in 2021, 25.93% of the company's revenue came from Apple. Considering the latter's dominant performance in the smartphone market this year, it is entirely understandable why TSMC's performance surged.</p><p>According to the financial report, in the third quarter of this year, the share of advanced process chips in TSMC's revenue further expanded, with chips with 7nm and above processes accounting for 54% of total revenue, of which 7nm accounted for 26%, and 5nm surpassed 7nm for the first time, accounting for 28%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3427da5efd05b6c1037b3eb5f3c519fb\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Even so, TSMC President Wei Zhejia expressed his concerns about the market in 2023 during the earnings call. He said that the semiconductor industry may decline in 2023, \"mainly because TSMC will continue to face challenges in the delivery of semiconductor equipment.\"</p><p>In addition, at the press conference, Wei Zhejia pointed out that customer demand for 3nm exceeds TSMC's supply, partly due to the ongoing issue of machine delivery. It is estimated that production will reach full capacity next year, and 3nm revenue will account for about 4-6%. Today, TSMC and Samsung Electronics have become the only two competitors after entering the 7-nanometer process, which may make TSMC a fortune.</p><p>Previously, when Nvidia released its 4nm RTX 40 series graphics cards, CEO Jensen Huang complained, \"Chip manufacturing is not just a little more expensive these days, but a huge price increase.\" Huang's statement was by no means sensational. TSMC's gross profit margin was 50.6% in the fourth quarter of 2021, while by the third quarter of this year, the company's gross profit margin had soared to 60.4%.</p><p>According to statistics from International Business Strategy, a third-party analysis firm in the United States, the foundry price of a 5-nanometer chip is $25,000, and the cost per chip is $12,500. The 3-nanometer process is expected to cost as much as $30,000.</p><p>However, the situation for Samsung Electronics, an IDM company, is not optimistic. Although the company pointed out in its financial report that its wafer foundry business achieved \"best results in history\" in both revenue and profit this quarter, Samsung Electronics' DS (semiconductor) division performed poorly in the third quarter due to the drag on the memory chip market, with revenue of 23.02 trillion won, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Operating profit was 5.12 trillion won, a year-on-year decrease of 49%.</p><p><b>Can equipment manufacturers still guarantee income regardless of drought or weather?</b></p><p>Compared to resilient contract manufacturers, equipment manufacturers bucked the trend and achieved growth this quarter.</p><p>October 19th, European time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>ASML released its financial results for the third quarter of 2022, reporting revenue of €5.778 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%. Net profit was 1.701 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 2.24%. This result exceeded the expectations of research firm Refinitiv, whose analysts had previously predicted sales of 5.41 billion euros and net profit of 1.42 billion euros.</p><p>Despite frequent reports in the industry that design firms have canceled orders, the pace of wafer fab expansion has not actually stopped. According to statistics from the Obstetrics and Gynecology International Institute of the Industrial Technology Research Institute of Taiwan, 41 wafer fabs will be built worldwide between 2022 and 2025. These newly built wafer fabs have provided support for the performance of equipment manufacturers this year.</p><p>Furthermore, since the equipment sector is at the very upstream of the semiconductor industry chain, even if demand in the end market is weakening, changes in demand will not be immediately transmitted to them.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the third quarter, ASML sold a total of 86 lithography units. Although affected by the US chip restrictions, the company's revenue share in the Chinese mainland market increased from 10% in the previous quarter to 15%. Previously, according to Bloomberg, ASML had assured investors that the latest U.S. export controls restricting China's access to cutting-edge semiconductor technology would have a \"fairly limited\" impact on the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba9b9ef8a169a1598b5096312ad7e2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54d81ac505eecb9f8c3211916d0fa107\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: ASML</p><p>However, it should be noted that some leading equipment manufacturers have already felt the impact of the \"chip restriction\".</p><p>Early morning of October 20th, Beijing time, global semiconductor equipment giant Fanlin Group released its quarterly financial report ending September 25th, showing revenue of $5.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. Net income was $1.426 billion, up from $1.18 billion last year; However, the gross profit margin was 44.5%, lower than the 46.1% in the previous quarter.</p><p>Compared to ASML, Fanlin Group has a larger market share in mainland China. Financial reports show that in the third quarter, Fanlin Group's revenue from the Chinese mainland market accounted for as much as 30%.</p><p>At the earnings call following the earnings release, CEO Timothy Archer stated, \"The U.S. government recently announced new export regulations, including wafer manufacturing equipment and related components and services. For calendar year 2023, we estimate that these restrictions will have an impact of between $2 billion and $2.5 billion on total revenue.\"</p><p><b>Chip Cycle Results</b></p><p>In today's semiconductor industry, production capacity is king. In addition, cyclical fluctuations in the semiconductor industry will be transmitted from downstream, with chip design manufacturers being the first to be affected, which is one of the reasons why chip design companies' performance fell short of expectations this year.</p><p>However, the current decline in the semiconductor industry is not due to the decline of a particular industry or link, but rather the result of cyclical fluctuations in the industry. Due to the chip shortage, many manufacturers have been hoarding inventory like crazy, leading to an imbalance in market demand. Now is the time to reduce inventory. A supply chain insider told Huxiu that some chip manufacturers have already stockpiled hundreds of billions of yuan worth of chips.</p><p>According to the latest data released by the Semiconductor Institute of America (SIA), global semiconductor sales totaled $141 billion in the third quarter of 2022, a 3% decrease compared to the same period last year and a 6.3% decrease compared to the second quarter. SIA President and CEO John Neuffer believes that after strong growth in the first half of the year, the semiconductor industry experienced its first sales decline since 2020.</p><p>In this cycle, the rise of new energy vehicles has led to a large consumption of chips, coupled with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the industrial chain, resulting in a significant supply gap in the semiconductor industry. Major manufacturers have increased capital expenditures in the past two years. In this process, affected by the macroeconomic downturn, consumer electronics has weakened, and the inventory hoarded by end manufacturers has not been consumed in a timely manner, resulting in total market supply exceeding demand.</p><p>Market analyst Future Horizons believes that global semiconductor industry capital expenditures increased by 45% in 2021, which will lead to increased production capacity in the second half of this year, resulting in oversupply.</p><p>Against this backdrop, neither IC designers nor wafer foundries can remain unaffected.</p><p>At a time when the semiconductor industry is entering a downturn, chip companies' reduction in capital expenditures is a necessary measure to restore the balance between chip supply and demand. During its third-quarter earnings call, TSMC clearly stated that its capital expenditures for 2022 will be reduced to US$36 billion from the previously estimated US$44 billion to US$40 billion.</p><p>As of November 3, including TSMC, Intel,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UMC\">United Mobile</a>Global contract manufacturing giants such as Micron have announced plans to cut capital expenditures.</p><p>Industry insiders say that after this cyclical downturn, the semiconductor industry may enter a more rational growth phase. It is expected that in the second half of next year, consumer electronics inventory will gradually decrease, and the market will gradually enter a dynamic balance of supply and demand.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is a global semiconductor winter coming?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs a global semiconductor winter coming?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">虎嗅</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-11-04 21:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Due to the downturn in the silicon cycle, the winter for the semiconductor industry came somewhat early.</p><p>Recently, semiconductor giants have released their financial reports for the third quarter of 2022. Overall, with Chaowei Semiconductor,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>The performance of chip design manufacturers, represented by..., almost all fell short of expectations.</p><p>Even<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">TSMC</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">Samsung Electronics</a>Such wafer manufacturing giants are also affected.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0QB8.UK\">ASML Corporation</a>Equipment manufacturers like Fanlin Semiconductor are less affected because they are slower to receive changes in downstream demand.</p><p>These companies are located at different stages of the semiconductor industry chain, but in this quarter's earnings reports or conference calls, almost all of them lowered their capital expenditures for next year.</p><p>This is the result of a \"domino effect\". Data from the Semiconductor Institute of America shows that since 1976, the global semiconductor industry has gone through seven major cycles and is currently in its eighth cycle. Looking back at the history of the semiconductor industry over the past half century, cyclical fluctuations have permeated the industry's history. It often starts with a supply and demand mismatch. After experiencing shortages, price increases, and investment in production expansion, it finally returns to a new round of supply and demand mismatch due to the concentrated release of production capacity.</p><p>Each cycle has its own unique characteristics. This cycle is a combination of the COVID-19 pandemic, political competition among major powers, and the global economic downturn, with more pronounced fluctuations.</p><p>A typical example is the unprecedented \"chip shortage\" in the past two years, which began with the COVID-19 pandemic, causing automakers to misjudge the situation, adjust their sales expectations, and then ask contract manufacturers to reduce production.</p><p>On the other hand, the pandemic has catalyzed the demand for working from home, leading to an increase in demand for consumer electronics. In addition, US sanctions have forced Huawei to stockpile chips on a large scale. This \"butterfly effect\" has also caused panic in the industry, resulting in another wave of chip stockpiling.</p><p>A wafer fab insider told Huxiu that last year, some foundries separated their production lines originally used to produce automotive electronics chips and switched to producing chips needed for consumer electronics. Currently, the chip cycle is declining, demand for consumer electronics is weak, and automotive chips remain in short supply, leading to a new adjustment in the supply chain. However, some industry insiders pointed out that the production capacity of some automotive chips also eased in the third quarter of this year.</p><p><b>Chip giants' performance fell short of expectations</b></p><p>On November 2nd, Beijing time, semiconductor company AMD released its Q3 2022 financial report, with revenue increasing by 29% year-on-year to $5.565 billion, lower than Wall Street's previous expectation of $6.5 billion. Under U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, net income was $66 million, a significant decrease of 93%.</p><p>AMD's weaker-than-expected financial report and declining net profit were mainly due to weak demand in the consumer electronics market, which accounts for the majority of global chip sales.</p><p>Research firm Future Horizons points out that mobile phones and personal computers account for almost half of the $600 billion worth of chips sold globally each year. In addition, according to statistics from Strategy Analytics, global smartphone shipments in the third quarter of 2022 were 297 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9%.</p><p>At the same time, the global PC market experienced its biggest quarterly decline in nearly 20 years. According to statistics from third-party consulting firm Gartner, global PC shipments totaled 68 million units in the third quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfaef7d1129a07ac6320ee9eb3df2e3c\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data Source : Strategy Analytics, Gartner</p><p>\"The PC market was very unstable in the third quarter. We expected the market to be weak, but it was weaker than we expected,\" said AMD CEO Lisa Su. She added that the consumer electronics market is currently the weakest, with AMD holding a 25.6% market share, and customers are generally becoming more cautious.</p><p>According to AMD's financial report, the client business unit, which is linked to its PC business, reported revenue of $1.02 billion this quarter, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 40%. A stark contrast is that the business unit reported an operating loss of $26 million this quarter, compared to an operating profit of $490 million in the same period last year, representing an operating profit margin of 29%.</p><p>However, since Lisa Su took over AMD, the diversified business strategy she has set for the company is playing a key role. Although the client division has performed poorly, server chips and gaming chips have given AMD a bit of face in this financial report.</p><p>Financial reports show that AMD's data center business unit reported revenue of $1.609 billion this quarter, a year-over-year increase of 45%. This is mainly due to the outstanding performance of Xiaolong chips in the server market, and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">Xilinx</a>And the benefits from the acquisition of another startup, Pensando Systems.</p><p>Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) was also affected by the consumer electronics market. The company released its Q3 2022 financial report a week ago, with revenue of $15.3 billion, a 20% year-over-year decrease. (miss the market expectation) Net profit was $1 billion, down 85% year-over-year, prompting Intel to lower its full-year guidance again.</p><p>The PC and server businesses, which have long been relied upon, both declined in the third quarter. PC business (CCG) revenue was $8.1 billion, a 17% year-over-year decrease; Server chip-related data center and artificial intelligence business (DCAI) declined 27% year-over-year to $4.2 billion.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0356720a55199cca06eafaead68d973\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"215\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Image source: Intel</p><p>Although Intel still holds the top spot in the server chip market, it appears to be showing signs of loosening its grip. According to statistics from TrendForce, Intel's X86 server chip market share decreased by approximately 6 percentage points year-on-year over the past two quarters, mainly due to Meta...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>The major customer transferred the server chip procurement order to AMD.</p><p>The main business is facing a downturn, sluggish growth, and is facing competition from all sides. Since taking office, Intel CEO Pat Kissinger has focused on expanding new growth curves for Intel. In March of last year, Intel released the IDM2.0 program, which mainly consists of three parts: an internal factory network, third-party production capacity, and a brand-new Intel foundry service.</p><p>Pat emphasized that IDM2.0 is a winning formula. On the one hand, it can leverage the internal factory network, and on the other hand, it can strategically utilize external contract manufacturers to deliver leading products and provide the industry with new advanced contract manufacturing capacity.</p><p>Recently, the Intel executive suggested that Intel could use its Ohio factory to support AMD and...<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>Provide OEM services. In a subsequent statement, he said that Intel hopes to become Nvidia,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">Qualcomm</a>and<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>The preferred provider.</p><p>However, industry insiders still express concerns that Intel's development of a contract manufacturing model will be a long and arduous process. Chip foundry and IDM are two completely different business models. Chip foundry needs to be closely linked to customers, grow together with them, and develop technologies. IDM, on the other hand, produces its own products and sets its own specifications. Even IDM factory<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">Samsung</a>It took a long time to establish its own OEM model, and its yield rate is still criticized.</p><p>A very real problem is that nowadays, almost all customers of advanced manufacturing processes choose TSMC for OEM manufacturing. The cost of changing suppliers is extremely high, and the possibility is very small. How can Intel grab market share from TSMC? On the other hand, how can Intel convince its competitors to hand over their advanced process business with confidence and at the same time become Intel's customers?</p><p>In addition, Intel has been sluggish in its progress in advanced manufacturing processes. According to the latest report from TrendForce, due to the drag of Intel's 7 process, the current yield of the new generation Xeon processor Sapphire Rapids is estimated to be only about 50%-60%, and mass production has been postponed from the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year.</p><p>Intel may be able to undertake the contract manufacturing of some mature manufacturing processes, but advanced manufacturing processes are the core of high profits, and it will take time to succeed in this path, which has led to Intel's current awkward situation.</p><p>However, some senior figures in the chip industry told Huxiu that Intel is currently struggling to advance advanced manufacturing processes, and cooperating with external customers can help Intel accumulate some processes and know-how, which will be beneficial to its process improvement.</p><p>Over the past three years, the semiconductor industry has experienced an unprecedented \"chip shortage,\" and now it is facing weak demand for consumer electronics. Uncertainty remains the dominant factor in the global semiconductor market.</p><p><b>As the tide recedes, only TSMC isn't swimming naked?</b></p><p>Wafer fabs demonstrated remarkable resilience in the third quarter of this year.</p><p>Global contract manufacturing giant TSMC's third-quarter report shows that the company achieved revenue of US$20.2 billion during the period, a year-on-year increase of 35.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.4%, with an operating profit margin of 50.6%, both exceeding market expectations.</p><p>The company's strong performance this quarter is closely related to its leading customer, Apple. According to information released by TSMC in 2021, 25.93% of the company's revenue came from Apple. Considering the latter's dominant performance in the smartphone market this year, it is entirely understandable why TSMC's performance surged.</p><p>According to the financial report, in the third quarter of this year, the share of advanced process chips in TSMC's revenue further expanded, with chips with 7nm and above processes accounting for 54% of total revenue, of which 7nm accounted for 26%, and 5nm surpassed 7nm for the first time, accounting for 28%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3427da5efd05b6c1037b3eb5f3c519fb\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Even so, TSMC President Wei Zhejia expressed his concerns about the market in 2023 during the earnings call. He said that the semiconductor industry may decline in 2023, \"mainly because TSMC will continue to face challenges in the delivery of semiconductor equipment.\"</p><p>In addition, at the press conference, Wei Zhejia pointed out that customer demand for 3nm exceeds TSMC's supply, partly due to the ongoing issue of machine delivery. It is estimated that production will reach full capacity next year, and 3nm revenue will account for about 4-6%. Today, TSMC and Samsung Electronics have become the only two competitors after entering the 7-nanometer process, which may make TSMC a fortune.</p><p>Previously, when Nvidia released its 4nm RTX 40 series graphics cards, CEO Jensen Huang complained, \"Chip manufacturing is not just a little more expensive these days, but a huge price increase.\" Huang's statement was by no means sensational. TSMC's gross profit margin was 50.6% in the fourth quarter of 2021, while by the third quarter of this year, the company's gross profit margin had soared to 60.4%.</p><p>According to statistics from International Business Strategy, a third-party analysis firm in the United States, the foundry price of a 5-nanometer chip is $25,000, and the cost per chip is $12,500. The 3-nanometer process is expected to cost as much as $30,000.</p><p>However, the situation for Samsung Electronics, an IDM company, is not optimistic. Although the company pointed out in its financial report that its wafer foundry business achieved \"best results in history\" in both revenue and profit this quarter, Samsung Electronics' DS (semiconductor) division performed poorly in the third quarter due to the drag on the memory chip market, with revenue of 23.02 trillion won, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Operating profit was 5.12 trillion won, a year-on-year decrease of 49%.</p><p><b>Can equipment manufacturers still guarantee income regardless of drought or weather?</b></p><p>Compared to resilient contract manufacturers, equipment manufacturers bucked the trend and achieved growth this quarter.</p><p>October 19th, European time<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">Asma</a>ASML released its financial results for the third quarter of 2022, reporting revenue of €5.778 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%. Net profit was 1.701 billion euros, a year-on-year decrease of 2.24%. This result exceeded the expectations of research firm Refinitiv, whose analysts had previously predicted sales of 5.41 billion euros and net profit of 1.42 billion euros.</p><p>Despite frequent reports in the industry that design firms have canceled orders, the pace of wafer fab expansion has not actually stopped. According to statistics from the Obstetrics and Gynecology International Institute of the Industrial Technology Research Institute of Taiwan, 41 wafer fabs will be built worldwide between 2022 and 2025. These newly built wafer fabs have provided support for the performance of equipment manufacturers this year.</p><p>Furthermore, since the equipment sector is at the very upstream of the semiconductor industry chain, even if demand in the end market is weakening, changes in demand will not be immediately transmitted to them.</p><p>It is worth mentioning that in the third quarter, ASML sold a total of 86 lithography units. Although affected by the US chip restrictions, the company's revenue share in the Chinese mainland market increased from 10% in the previous quarter to 15%. Previously, according to Bloomberg, ASML had assured investors that the latest U.S. export controls restricting China's access to cutting-edge semiconductor technology would have a \"fairly limited\" impact on the company.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba9b9ef8a169a1598b5096312ad7e2f\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54d81ac505eecb9f8c3211916d0fa107\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"508\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Data source: ASML</p><p>However, it should be noted that some leading equipment manufacturers have already felt the impact of the \"chip restriction\".</p><p>Early morning of October 20th, Beijing time, global semiconductor equipment giant Fanlin Group released its quarterly financial report ending September 25th, showing revenue of $5.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.9%. Net income was $1.426 billion, up from $1.18 billion last year; However, the gross profit margin was 44.5%, lower than the 46.1% in the previous quarter.</p><p>Compared to ASML, Fanlin Group has a larger market share in mainland China. Financial reports show that in the third quarter, Fanlin Group's revenue from the Chinese mainland market accounted for as much as 30%.</p><p>At the earnings call following the earnings release, CEO Timothy Archer stated, \"The U.S. government recently announced new export regulations, including wafer manufacturing equipment and related components and services. For calendar year 2023, we estimate that these restrictions will have an impact of between $2 billion and $2.5 billion on total revenue.\"</p><p><b>Chip Cycle Results</b></p><p>In today's semiconductor industry, production capacity is king. In addition, cyclical fluctuations in the semiconductor industry will be transmitted from downstream, with chip design manufacturers being the first to be affected, which is one of the reasons why chip design companies' performance fell short of expectations this year.</p><p>However, the current decline in the semiconductor industry is not due to the decline of a particular industry or link, but rather the result of cyclical fluctuations in the industry. Due to the chip shortage, many manufacturers have been hoarding inventory like crazy, leading to an imbalance in market demand. Now is the time to reduce inventory. A supply chain insider told Huxiu that some chip manufacturers have already stockpiled hundreds of billions of yuan worth of chips.</p><p>According to the latest data released by the Semiconductor Institute of America (SIA), global semiconductor sales totaled $141 billion in the third quarter of 2022, a 3% decrease compared to the same period last year and a 6.3% decrease compared to the second quarter. SIA President and CEO John Neuffer believes that after strong growth in the first half of the year, the semiconductor industry experienced its first sales decline since 2020.</p><p>In this cycle, the rise of new energy vehicles has led to a large consumption of chips, coupled with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the industrial chain, resulting in a significant supply gap in the semiconductor industry. Major manufacturers have increased capital expenditures in the past two years. In this process, affected by the macroeconomic downturn, consumer electronics has weakened, and the inventory hoarded by end manufacturers has not been consumed in a timely manner, resulting in total market supply exceeding demand.</p><p>Market analyst Future Horizons believes that global semiconductor industry capital expenditures increased by 45% in 2021, which will lead to increased production capacity in the second half of this year, resulting in oversupply.</p><p>Against this backdrop, neither IC designers nor wafer foundries can remain unaffected.</p><p>At a time when the semiconductor industry is entering a downturn, chip companies' reduction in capital expenditures is a necessary measure to restore the balance between chip supply and demand. During its third-quarter earnings call, TSMC clearly stated that its capital expenditures for 2022 will be reduced to US$36 billion from the previously estimated US$44 billion to US$40 billion.</p><p>As of November 3, including TSMC, Intel,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UMC\">United Mobile</a>Global contract manufacturing giants such as Micron have announced plans to cut capital expenditures.</p><p>Industry insiders say that after this cyclical downturn, the semiconductor industry may enter a more rational growth phase. It is expected that in the second half of next year, consumer electronics inventory will gradually decrease, and the market will gradually enter a dynamic balance of supply and demand.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/705078.html\">虎嗅</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bf6345268d9eae05162598f583f5003","relate_stocks":{"INTC":"英特尔","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/705078.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2280505819","content_text":"在硅周期下行的影响下，半导体行业的冬天来得早了一些。近期，半导体巨头纷纷发布2022年第三季度财报。整体来看，以超威半导体、英特尔为代表的芯片设计厂商业绩几乎都不及预期。即便是台积电、三星电子这样的晶圆制造巨头也受到波及，阿斯麦公司、泛林半导体这类的设备厂商由于收到下游需求变化的传导较慢，所受影响较小。这些公司分布在半导体产业链的不同环节，但在本季度的财报或是电话会议中，他们几乎都下调了明年的资本支出。这是一次“多米诺骨牌效应”引发的结果。从美国半导体协会的数据看出，从1976年至今，全球半导体一共经历了7轮大周期，现在正处于第八轮周期之中。回顾半导体过去半个世纪的历史，周期性波动贯穿了行业历史。往往都是从供需错配开始，在经历缺货涨价、投资扩产后，最后又因产能集中释放回到新一轮的供需错配。每轮周期都有其特殊性，这一轮是新冠疫情、大国政治博弈、全球经济形势下行的叠加，起伏更加明显。一个典型的例子就是过去两年里，前所未有的“缺芯潮”，始于新冠疫情，导致车厂错误估计了形势，调整其销售预期，进而向代工厂提出减产要求。另一方面则是疫情催化了居家办公的需求，导致消费电子的需求上升，再加上由于美国的制裁，迫使华为大规模囤货，这一“蝴蝶效应”也引来了业界的恐慌，导致又一波芯片的囤货潮。有晶圆厂人士告诉虎嗅，去年，一些代工厂会将原本用于生产汽车电子芯片的产线分离出来，转而生产消费电子所需的芯片。如今，芯片周期下行，消费电子需求疲软，反过来汽车芯片仍然紧缺，供应链又迎来新的调整。不过，有业内人士指出，今年三季度，一些汽车芯片方面的产能也有所松动。芯片巨头业绩不及预期北京时间11月2日，半导体公司AMD发布2022年三季度财报，营收较去年同期增长29%，达55.65亿美元，低于华尔街此前给出的65亿美元预期；在美国通用会计准则下，净利润为6600万美元，大幅下降93%。此次AMD财报不及预期，净利润下滑，主要来源于消费电子市场需求的疲软，这占据了全球芯片销量的主要部分。研究公司Future Horizons指出，在每年全球销售的价值6000亿美元的芯片中，手机和个人电脑几乎占据了一半，另据Strategy Analytics的统计结果，2022年三季度全球智能手机出货量为2.97亿部，同比下降9%。与此同时，全球PC市场更是创下了近20年来最大降幅的一个季度。根据第三方咨询机构Gartner的统计，全球PC在第三季度的出货量总计6800万台，同比下降19.5%。数据来源：Strategy Analytics、Gartner“三季度PC市场非常不稳定，我们预计市场会疲软，但它比我们预期的还要疲软。”AMD CEO苏姿丰称，目前消费电子市场最为薄弱，AMD在这一市场中占据25.6%的市场份额，客户总体变得更加谨慎。根据AMD财报，与PC业务挂钩的客户端事业部本季度营收10.2亿美元，同比下滑近40%。一个直观的对比是，本季度该业务部门经营亏损为2600万美元，去年同期该业务的经营利润为4.9亿美元，经营利润率为29%。不过，自苏姿丰接手AMD以来，她给公司定下的多元化经营战略在当下正发挥着关键的作用，尽管客户端部门表现不佳，但服务器芯片及游戏芯片为AMD的这份财报留下了一丝颜面。财报显示，本季度AMD数据中心事业部营业额为16.09亿美元，同比增长45%。这主要得益于霄龙芯片在服务器市场的优异表现，以及赛灵思和收购的另一家初创公司Pensando Systems带来的收益。同样受消费电子市场影响的还有英特尔（NASDAQ:INTC），这家公司在一周前发布了2022年第三季度财报，营收为153亿美元，同比下降20%，不及市场预期；净利润为10亿美元，同比下降85%，这份成绩单让英特尔再次下调全年业绩指引。一直以来依仗的PC以及服务器业务，在三季度均下滑。PC业务（CCG）营收81亿美元，同比下滑17%；服务器芯片相关的数据中心和人工智能业务（DCAI），同比下滑27%至42亿美元。图片来源：Intel尽管英特尔仍掌握服务器芯片市场的头把交椅，但似乎已经出现松动的迹象。集邦咨询的统计数据显示，过去两个季度，英特尔X86服务器芯片的市占率同比减少了约6个百分点，主要原因是Meta、微软等大客户把服务器芯片的采购转单给了AMD。主营业务遇到寒冬、增长乏力，且腹背受敌。英特尔CEO帕特·基辛格上台之后，一直着力于为英特尔拓展新的增长曲线。去年三月，英特尔发布了IDM2.0计划，该计划主要有三个部分，首先是内部工厂网络，其次为第三方产能，还有全新的英特尔代工服务。帕特强调，IDM2.0是制胜法宝，一方面可以利用内部工厂网络，另一方面战略性利用外部代工厂，交付领先产品，为行业提供新的先进代工产能。近期，这位英特尔的掌舵人又提出，英特尔可以利用其在俄亥俄州的工厂，为AMD和英伟达提供代工服务。他在之后的声明中表示，英特尔希望成为英伟达、高通和苹果的首选提供商。但业界仍对英特尔开展代工模式表示出“道阻且长”的担忧。芯片代工和IDM是两种完全不同的商业模式，芯片代工需要与客户紧密绑定，和客户共同成长，进行研发技术。而IDM是生产自己的产品，自己定规格。即便是IDM厂三星，在走通自己的代工模式也花了很长时间，且至今其良率仍被人诟病。一个很现实的问题是，如今，先进制程的客户几乎都选择台积电进行代工，更换供应商的代价极大，可能性很小，英特尔如何从台积电那里抢到份额？另一方面，英特尔又如何让其竞争对手放心地将自己的先进制程业务交出，并同时成为英特尔的客户。另外，英特尔在先进制程上一直推进乏力，根据集邦咨询的最新报告，受制于Intel 7工艺的拖累，新一代至强处理器Sapphire Rapids目前的良品率估计只有大约50%-60%，量产时间从今年第四季度推迟到了明年上半年。或许英特尔可以承接一些成熟制程的代工，但先进制程才是高利润的核心，要走通这条路，需要时间，这也造成了英特尔如今的尴尬局面。不过，也有芯片产业资深人士告诉虎嗅，英特尔如今在先进制程上难以推进，通过与外部客户合作的方式，也能够帮助英特尔积累一些工艺和know-how，对其工艺提升有一定的好处。在过去的三年里，半导体行业经历了史无前例的“缺芯潮”，如今又迎来了消费电子的需求疲软。全球半导体的不确定性仍是主导。潮水退去，只有台积电没在裸泳？晶圆厂在今年第三季度表现出了极强的韧性。全球代工巨头台积电三季报显示，期内该公司实现营收202亿美元，同比增长35.9%，环比增长11.4%，营业利润率达50.6%，均超出市场预期。这家公司在本季度的强势表现与头部客户苹果息息相关。根据2021年台积电公布的信息，公司有25.93%的营业收入来自于苹果，考虑到后者在今年智能手机市场一枝独秀的表现，也完全能理解台积电业绩大涨的原因。根据财报，在今年第三季度，先进制程芯片在台积电的营收占比中进一步扩大，7nm及以上制程的芯片占总营收的54%，其中7nm占比26%，5nm则首次超越7nm，占比达到28%。但即便如此，台积电总裁魏哲家在财报会上表达了其对于2023年市场的担忧，他表示，半导体行业可能会在2023年出现下滑，“主要原因在于台积电将持续面临半导体设备的交付挑战”。另外，此次法说会上，魏哲家指出，客户对3纳米的需求超越台积电的供应量，部分原因来自持续存在的机台交期问题，预估明年将满载生产，3纳米营收占比约为4-6%。如今，台积电和三星电子已经成为了进入7纳米制程之后，唯二竞逐的对象，这或将使台积电赚得盆满钵满。此前，英伟达在发布4nm制程的RTX 40系列显卡时，CEO黄仁勋就曾吐槽过，“现在的芯片代工不是贵一点点，而是巨幅涨价。”黄仁勋此言绝非是在耸人听闻，台积电在2021年四季度的毛利率为50.6%，而到了今年三季度，这家公司的毛利率已经飙升至60.4%。根据美国第三方分析机构国际商业战略公司统计，5纳米制程的芯片代工价格为25000美元，单片成本为12500美元。3纳米制程预计代工价格将高达30000美元。但IDM企业三星电子，情况并不太乐观，尽管该公司在财报中指出，本季度晶圆代工业务的营收和利润都创下了“史上最好成绩”，但受存储芯片市场的拖累，三星电子的DS（半导体）部门第三季度表现不佳，期内营收实现23.02万亿韩元，同比下滑14%；运营利润5.12万亿韩元，同比下滑49%。设备厂商，还能否旱涝保收？相较于坚韧的代工厂商，本季度设备厂商更是实现了逆势上涨。欧洲时间10月19日，阿斯麦ASML公司发布2022年第三季度财报，当季实现营收57.78亿欧元，同比增长10.25%；净利润为17.01亿欧元，同比下降2.24%。这份业绩高于调研机构Refinitiv的预期，此前该机构分析师预计的销售额为54.1亿欧元，净利润14.2亿欧元。尽管业内频繁传出设计厂商砍单，但实际上，晶圆厂扩建的步伐并未停滞。根据中国台湾工研院产科国际所统计的数据，2022年至2025年期间全球将兴建41座晶圆厂，这些新建的晶圆厂为今年设备厂商的业绩提供了支撑。此外，由于设备端处于半导体产业链的最上游，即使目前终端市场的需求日渐萎靡，需求变化也不会立即传导给它们。值得一提的是，在第三季度，阿斯麦共售出86台光刻机，虽然受美国芯片限令的影响，但该公司在中国大陆市场的收入占比从上个季度的10%提升至15%。此前，据彭博社报道，ASML已向投资者保证，美国限制中国获取尖端半导体技术的最新出口管制措施，对该公司的影响“相当有限”。数据来源：ASML但需要说明的是，一些头部设备厂商已经感受到“芯片限令”带来的影响。北京时间10月20日凌晨，全球半导体设备巨头泛林集团发布截至9月25日的季度财报，当季营收51亿美元，同比增长17.9%；净利润为14.26亿美元，高于去年11.8亿美元；但毛利率44.5%，不如上季的46.1%。相较于阿斯麦，泛林集团在中国大陆的市场份额更多。财报显示，第三季度泛林集团在中国大陆市场的收入占比高达30%。在财报发布后的业绩交流会上，公司CEO Timothy Archer表示，“近日美国政府公布了出口新规，包括晶圆制造设备及相关零部件和服务。对于2023自然年，我们估计，这些限制对总收入的影响在20亿至25亿美元之间”。芯片周期的结果当下的半导体行业，产能为王。另外，半导体的周期性波动，将会由下游开始传导，芯片设计厂商最先受到波及，这也是今年芯片设计公司业绩不及预期的原因之一。不过，当前的半导体行业并不是某一行业或是某一环节的衰落，而是行业周期性波动的结果。由于在缺芯潮影响下，诸多厂商疯狂囤货导致市场需求的失衡，此时是消解库存的时候。有供应链人士告诉虎嗅，已有芯片商囤积了几千亿元的芯片。美国半导体协会（SIA）发布的最新数据显示，2022年第三季度，全球半导体销售总额为1410亿美元，较去年同期下降3%，较第二季度环比下降6.3%。SIA总裁兼CEO John Neuffer认为，在经历上半年的强劲增长后，半导体行业出现了自2020年以后的首次销售额下降。代入到本轮周期下，此前由于新能源汽车兴起对芯片的大量消耗，叠加新冠疫情对产业链的冲击，半导体产业出现较大的供应缺口，各大厂商在过去两年纷纷加大资本开支，在这一过程中，受宏观经济下行的影响，消费电子出现疲软，终端厂商囤积的库存没有得到及时消耗，市场总供给开始高于需求。市场分析机构Future Horizons认为，在2021年，全球半导体产业资本支出增长45%，这将导致今年下半年投产的产能增加，导致供应过剩。在这样的背景下，无论是IC设计厂商，还是晶圆代工厂商，恐怕都难以独善其身。在半导体产业进入下行周期的时刻，芯片企业削减资本支出是恢复芯片供需平衡的必要举措。台积电在三季度业绩交流会上明确表示，2022年的资本支出将从此前预计的440亿-400亿美元下调至360亿美元。截至11月3日，包括台积电、英特尔、联电、美光等全球代工巨头都公布了削减资本支出的计划。业界人士表示，这场周期下行之后，半导体行业或将进入一个较为理性的增长局面，预计明年下半年，消费电子的库存将慢慢消减，市场逐渐进入供需的动态平衡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"INTC":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982597216,"gmtCreate":1667204279235,"gmtModify":1676537876650,"author":{"id":"4123222115080672","authorId":"4123222115080672","name":"Amaxyap","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/702895f37a9b0d8249aa67573c993d21","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4123222115080672","authorIdStr":"4123222115080672"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hallo&nbsp;","listText":"Hallo&nbsp;","text":"Hallo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982597216","repostId":"1129342816","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129342816","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1667204022,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1129342816?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2022-10-31 16:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Unusual Movement | Citigroup's \"Bearish\" Outlook, XPeng Plunges! Big tech stocks such as Tesla fell","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129342816","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：美股指期货下跌，理想汽车、B站等热门中概股盘前走低；特斯拉、AMD等大型科技股多数下跌。10月31日，美股指期货下跌，道指期货跌0.29%，纳指期货跌0.67%，标普500指数期货跌0.45%。","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: US stock index futures fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Popular Chinese concept stocks such as Bilibili fell in pre-market trading;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Most major technology stocks, such as AMD, fell.</b>On October 31, U.S. stock index futures fell, with Dow Jones futures down 0.29%, Nasdaq futures down 0.67%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.45%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f222b8289c61f243b65ee010995151d4\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell by more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>(Rating downgraded from Buy to Sell, target price lowered from $27.87 to $3.18)</p><p>Most large technology stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>AMD fell more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell by nearly 1%.</p><p>Oil stocks fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR.A\">Petrobras</a>It fell more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The stock rose about 2% in pre-market trading after announcing details of a plan to raise 4 billion Swiss francs through a new share placement to investors, which is expected to seek approval at a special shareholders' meeting on November 23.</p><p>TAL Education Group fell more than 3% in pre-market trading, with Q2 revenue down 79.6% year-on-year.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Unusual Movement | Citigroup's \"Bearish\" Outlook, XPeng Plunges! Big tech stocks such as Tesla fell</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnusual Movement | Citigroup's \"Bearish\" Outlook, XPeng Plunges! Big tech stocks such as Tesla fell\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-10-31 16:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Abstract: US stock index futures fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>Popular Chinese concept stocks such as Bilibili fell in pre-market trading;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>Most major technology stocks, such as AMD, fell.</b>On October 31, U.S. stock index futures fell, with Dow Jones futures down 0.29%, Nasdaq futures down 0.67%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.45%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f222b8289c61f243b65ee010995151d4\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"180\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Popular Chinese concept stocks fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>It fell more than 5%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>It fell more than 4%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">Ctrip</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">Bilibili</a>It fell more than 3%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">JD.com</a>It fell by more than 2%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citi</a>will<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Automotive</a>(Rating downgraded from Buy to Sell, target price lowered from $27.87 to $3.18)</p><p>Most large technology stocks fell.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>AMD fell more than 1%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a>It fell by nearly 1%.</p><p>Oil stocks fell in pre-market trading.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR.A\">Petrobras</a>It fell more than 8%.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTA.UK\">Total</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">BP</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The stock rose about 2% in pre-market trading after announcing details of a plan to raise 4 billion Swiss francs through a new share placement to investors, which is expected to seek approval at a special shareholders' meeting on November 23.</p><p>TAL Education Group fell more than 3% in pre-market trading, with Q2 revenue down 79.6% year-on-year.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK1587":"次新股","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK1539":"汽车股","BK4527":"明星科技股","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LI":"理想汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU2087621335.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","03086":"华夏纳指","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","JD":"京东","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","XPEV":"小鹏集团","BILI":"哔哩哔哩","LU0593848301.USD":"未来资产亚洲卓越消费股票基金A","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","BK1588":"回港中概股","C":"花旗","BK1575":"同股不同权","09868":"小鹏集团-W",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129342816","content_text":"摘要：美股指期货下跌，理想汽车、B站等热门中概股盘前走低；特斯拉、AMD等大型科技股多数下跌。10月31日，美股指期货下跌，道指期货跌0.29%，纳指期货跌0.67%，标普500指数期货跌0.45%。热门中概股盘前走低，小鹏汽车跌超5%，理想汽车跌超4%，携程网、哔哩哔哩跌超3%，百度、京东跌超2%。(花旗将小鹏汽车评级从买入下调至卖出，目标价从27.87美元下调至3.18美元)大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉、AMD跌超1%，英伟达、微软、苹果跌近1%。石油股盘前下跌，巴西石油跌超8%，道达尔、英国石油跌逾2%。瑞士信贷盘前涨约2%，此前公布向投资者配售新股募集40亿瑞士法郎的计划细节，预计将于11月23日特别股东大会上寻求批准。好未来盘前跌超3%，Q2营收同比下降79.6%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JD":0.9,"LI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"09868":0.9,"TTTN":0.9,"03086":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"BILI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"C":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982597314,"gmtCreate":1667204220738,"gmtModify":1676537876634,"author":{"id":"4123222115080672","authorId":"4123222115080672","name":"Amaxyap","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/702895f37a9b0d8249aa67573c993d21","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4123222115080672","authorIdStr":"4123222115080672"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c551d47889aaa0b63945f8e09e848ce9","width":"750","height":"940"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982597314","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982002604,"gmtCreate":1667031971308,"gmtModify":1676537852482,"author":{"id":"4123222115080672","authorId":"4123222115080672","name":"Amaxyap","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/702895f37a9b0d8249aa67573c993d21","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4123222115080672","authorIdStr":"4123222115080672"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1d3036082a205afc98f42ef909bc7414","width":"750","height":"1360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982002604","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9982002333,"gmtCreate":1667031913123,"gmtModify":1676537852474,"author":{"id":"4123222115080672","authorId":"4123222115080672","name":"Amaxyap","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/702895f37a9b0d8249aa67573c993d21","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4123222115080672","authorIdStr":"4123222115080672"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/SQQQ\">$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$</a>","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$","images":[{"img":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/0d0ba22208735b0f2113763dba7ced0a","width":"750","height":"1360"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9982002333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}