To The Moon

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers U.S. Inflation Cools Surprisingly, Market Worries Ease Slightly, but Trading Opportunities Remain. Last week, the December U.S. inflation data was released, showing a slight cooling compared to the previously robust economic data. Specifically, the nominal CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, higher than the prior reading but within expectations. The main driver of this increase was energy prices, influenced by short-term volatility and lacking long-term persistence. Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Meanwhile, core CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year, exceeding the prior reading but slightly below expectations. Within core CPI, core goods continued to cool, while core services remained relatively resilient, especially the ho

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg, Tiger Brokers Key Market Themes Is the Biden Administration's Plan for Stricter AI Chip Export Restrictions Set to Have a Profound Impact on the Tech Industry? Last week, Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that the Biden administration plans to introduce further AI chip export restrictions before leaving office on January 20. Rumors suggest that the new regulations will categorize countries and regions into three tiers as follows: Tier 1: Includes major U.S. allies such as Germany, Japan, and the Netherlands. These countries will face minimal restrictions and can nearly freely access AI chips exported by the U.S. Tier 2: Covers most countries and regions worldwide, which will be subject to a tot

Today, let's exploring themes for 2025.It should be noted that alpha selection will become increasingly important in 2025, with significant differences expected between sectors and companies.As investors, we should consider which themes or sectors should include and important considerations :There’s no need to hedge against a hard landing, as this risk is already addressed at the allocation level by reducing delta.The chosen sector should have strong fundamentals, includIing healthy revenue growth, profitability, and cash flow, and it should not be a sunset industry. This ensures that even if the market experiences a significant pullback, the sector has recovery potential, avoiding forced losses during downturns.Industries driven primarily by long-term expectations—like quantum computing o

📅 On April 1st, tensions flared as 🇮🇱 Israel targeted the Iranian consulate in Damascus; 🇮🇷 Iran retaliated with a barrage of missiles and drones on the night of April 13th to 14th, an event that caught 🌍 the world's attention. To prevent a spiral into a cycle of violence, Western governments issued 🔴 red alerts. An escalation into a full-scale regional conflict could have devastating global effects.Led by the United States, Western countries condemned Iran's actions. The international response varied:Turkey urged Iran to prevent further escalation; China adopted a policy of appeasement; 🇷🇺 the Russian Foreign Ministry called for "restraint" from all parties; and Syria, an ally, emphasized Iran's "right to self-defense."🌐📉 The Middle East's unrest has global implications, affecting capital

1. Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Source: Bloomberg 2. Key Market Themes: U.S. job market is weakening. Powell said “a bit more evidence” is needed for rate cut The United States added 275k non-farm jobs in February, slightly higher than the market consensus of 200k. However, the unemployment rate rose by 3.9% in February, higher than market expectations. Meanwhile, average hourly wages increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, and full-time employee wages year-on-year growth declined to almost 0, lower than market expectations. Taken together, this Feb NFP report further confirms that the U.S. job market is weakening. Source: Wells Fargo Fed Chairman Powell said “a bit more evidence” is needed for rate cut in his testimony to congress, pushing the rate cut pricing by the

1. Review of Asset Performance in 2023.As the path curves around the mountain peak, the rivers and mountains bask in the moonlight. Yesterday, we removed our masks to embrace the world; today, conflicts arise, creating a complex and bewildering situation. War or peace, inflation or rate hikes, investing or lying flat, truth and illusion intertwine, marking another year.In 2023, global political unrest prevails, conflicts in Eurasia persist, and the fires of war reignite in the Middle East;In 2023, the global economy tends to stabilize, soaring inflation finally sees a decline, and the ongoing interest rate hikes show signs of a turning point;In 2023, global technology is on the verge, ChatGPT triggers the AI wave, and SpaceX sparks human imagination;In 2023, global assets experience a mix

With the end of the year approaching, major institutions begin to provide outlook for US stock market in 2024.According to some reports released so far, most institutions are slightly more optimistic this year compared with the widespread concerns last year.We have selected three outlook reports from David J. Kostin team of Goldman Sachs, Michael J Wilson team of Morgan Stanley and the Mark Haefele team of UBS.Let’s look at their forecasts for the US stock next year, as well as their analyses and judgment on important issues and directions.Forecasts for S&P 500; Chart made by Tiger_Insights1. Up or down? US stocks growth forecast for 2024It is difficult to accurately predict the rising/falling points of US stocks next year. It is common for institutions to be "prove

In history, it's quite a coincidence that two major stock market crashes in the U.S. occurred in October.In October 1929, the Great Depression began to spread, leading to a massive stock market crash.In October 1987, the U.S. experienced Black Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunging by over 20% in a single day.With the conflict in the Israeli-Palestinian region, the U.S. dollar is surging. On one hand, there is the significantly better-than-expected non-farm employment data, and on the other hand, the Federal Reserve's unwavering commitment to its inflation target, leaving many investors feeling "chilled to the bone" about this October.1. Is October really the month of stock market crashes in the U.S.?The following chart provides the average returns and daily average volatil

There are still medium- and long-term opportunities in chip design, manufacturing, and production in the semiconductor industryApart from whether the U.S. stock index $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ will fall or continue to rise in the second half of the year, there are some medium- and long-term opportunities that investors should seize. For example, the semiconductor sector, which is benefiting from generative AI, and companies that are benefiting from the shift in manufacturing and chip computing.1. The semiconductor industry benefiting from Generative AI:The semiconductor industry is on the upswing. In Q2, revenue levels across the global se

1. The Fed's rate hike this year is coming to an end, and the rate will be raised no more than once in September.Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said at the July FOMC meeting that the path of future rate hikes will depend on U.S. economic data, meaning as long as core inflation can continue to fall, the likelihood of the Fed raising rates further is not that high.Jerome Powell - WikipediaBelow are three factors that deserve attention and could affect inflation data (CPI) in the future:The impact of the July increase in crude oil prices on CPI: There was a relatively significant increase in crude oil prices in July, which may mean that CPI does not return to 2% as quickly.The influence of U.S. residential rental prices: The statistical subitem US CPI includes owner-equivalent rent, while th