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Meih
Meih
·
2023-03-28
[呆住]
Opening | Three major U.S. stock indexes collectively open higher, regional bank stocks move higher
3月27日,美股三大指数集体高开,道琼斯指数开盘上涨39.19点,涨幅0.12%,报32276.72点;标普500指数开盘上涨25.06点,涨幅0.63%,报3996.05点;纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨
Opening | Three major U.S. stock indexes collectively open higher, regional bank stocks move higher
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Meih
Meih
·
2023-03-28
[真香]
Microsoft's 154-page research paper brushes the screen! The most complete test exposure of GPT-4, saying that it opened the door of AGI for the first time
2019 年,微软用 10 亿美元砸进 OpenAI,两者展开为期数年的合作。当时两家对外公开的合作内容包括,微软和 OpenAI 将联合开发新的 Azure AI 超级计算技术,而 OpenAI 也
Microsoft's 154-page research paper brushes the screen! The most complete test exposure of GPT-4, saying that it opened the door of AGI for the first time
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Meih
Meih
·
2023-03-28
[惊讶]
Learning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?
分析师表示,如果信用额度被取消,企业就必须裁员、削减开支,并采取其他必要行动。随着消费者削减开支,需求减少进一步影响到企业。这样的恶性循环将不断重复,直到经济陷入衰退。银行业危机很可能是经济形势恶化的
Learning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?
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Meih
Meih
·
2023-03-28
[财迷]
Pre-market | Silicon Valley Bank will be "taken over"! First Citizens Bank stake soars nearly 40%
3月27日,美股指期货震荡走高,截止发稿,道指期货涨0.71%,纳指期货涨0.36%,标普500指数期货涨0.71%。盘前行情区域性银行股盘前走高,第一共和银行涨超25%,Silvergate涨超11
Pre-market | Silicon Valley Bank will be "taken over"! First Citizens Bank stake soars nearly 40%
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Meih
Meih
·
2023-03-27
[开心]
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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Meih
Meih
·
2023-03-25
[开心]
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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Meih
Meih
·
2023-03-25
[呆住]
Sorry, this post has been deleted
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Meih
Meih
·
2023-03-25
[呆住]
Change|Official announcement big news, Faraday future soars! Block keeps falling after being sniped by short-selling institutions
3月24日,美股指期货涨跌不一,道指期货涨0.06%,纳指期货涨0.05%,标普500指数期货涨0.01%。法拉第未来盘前涨超6%,公司宣布启动FF 91 Futurist开始生产倒计时,该车型将于美
Change|Official announcement big news, Faraday future soars! Block keeps falling after being sniped by short-selling institutions
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Meih
Meih
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2023-03-25
[傲娇]
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Meih
Meih
·
2023-03-24
[惊讶]
Job market remains tight as U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly drop for second straight week
美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,截至3月18日当周,初请失业金人数减少1000人,至19.1万人,经济学家普遍预期为19.7万人,前值为19.2万人。美国初请失业金人数连续第二周意外减少,突显出就业市场
Job market remains tight as U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly drop for second straight week
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","listText":"[呆住] ","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941972515","repostId":"1192976667","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192976667","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1679923848,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192976667?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-27 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Opening | Three major U.S. stock indexes collectively open higher, regional bank stocks move higher","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192976667","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月27日,美股三大指数集体高开,道琼斯指数开盘上涨39.19点,涨幅0.12%,报32276.72点;标普500指数开盘上涨25.06点,涨幅0.63%,报3996.05点;纳斯达克综合指数开盘上涨","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 27th, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher collectively, and the Dow Jones index opened up 39.19 points, or 0.12%, to 32,276.72 points; The S&P 500 opened up 25.06 points, or 0.63%, at 3996.05; The Nasdaq Composite opened up 37.50 points, or 0.32%, at 11,861.46.</p><p>U.S. regional bank stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCNCA\">First Citizens Bank</a>Up nearly 50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Up more than 30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">Westpac U.S. Bank</a>Up more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Aleans Western Bank</a>Up nearly 7%.</p><p>Most popular Chinese stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 2% after Barclays expected the company's first-quarter deliveries to exceed expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>up 4.3%, and UBS upgraded it to buy, saying its shares could rise more than 25% on advertising improvement plans.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku</a>Up more than 5%, Susquehanna upgraded it to \"positive\", calling it a \"major beneficiary\" of connected TV.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech</a>Down more than 6%, although BioNTech's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, this year's vaccine revenue guidance is only 5 billion euros, far lower than the expected 8.95 billion euros.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-27 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 27th, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened higher collectively, and the Dow Jones index opened up 39.19 points, or 0.12%, to 32,276.72 points; The S&P 500 opened up 25.06 points, or 0.63%, at 3996.05; The Nasdaq Composite opened up 37.50 points, or 0.32%, at 11,861.46.</p><p>U.S. regional bank stocks rose,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCNCA\">First Citizens Bank</a>Up nearly 50%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>Up more than 30%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">Westpac U.S. Bank</a>Up more than 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Aleans Western Bank</a>Up nearly 7%.</p><p>Most popular Chinese stocks fell,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">Pinduoduo</a>Down 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">Baidu</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">iQIYI</a>It fell by more than 3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">Jingdong</a>It fell by more than 2%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla</a>It rose more than 2% after Barclays expected the company's first-quarter deliveries to exceed expectations.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>up 4.3%, and UBS upgraded it to buy, saying its shares could rise more than 25% on advertising improvement plans.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ROKU\">Roku</a>Up more than 5%, Susquehanna upgraded it to \"positive\", calling it a \"major beneficiary\" of connected TV.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech</a>Down more than 6%, although BioNTech's Q4 performance exceeded expectations, this year's vaccine revenue guidance is only 5 billion euros, far lower than the expected 8.95 billion euros.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{"WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0640798160.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET DYNAMIC \"A\" (USD) ACC","PDD":"拼多多","IQ":"爱奇艺","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","JD":"京东","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) 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","text":"[真香]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941972608","repostId":"1126058534","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126058534","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679914944,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126058534?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-27 19:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Microsoft's 154-page research paper brushes the screen! The most complete test exposure of GPT-4, saying that it opened the door of AGI for the first time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126058534","media":"CSDN","summary":"2019 年,微软用 10 亿美元砸进 OpenAI,两者展开为期数年的合作。当时两家对外公开的合作内容包括,微软和 OpenAI 将联合开发新的 Azure AI 超级计算技术,而 OpenAI 也","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>In 2019, Microsoft smashed $1 billion into OpenAI, and the two started a several-year cooperation.</p><p>At that time, the public cooperation between the two companies included that Microsoft and OpenAI would jointly develop a new Azure AI supercomputing technology, and OpenAI would also transfer its services to Azure, with the ultimate goal of attacking Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) technology.</p><p>To sum up, Microsoft and OpenAI joined forces, which has also been interpreted by the outside world as, clearly for AGI research, secretly competing for Google market.</p><p>A few years later, when OpenAI returned with the king of ChatGPT and GPT-4, and Microsoft took the lead in using these technologies to add new Bing, Office Family Bucket, Azure and other businesses and products, there is no doubt that its progress has already surpassed Google's overall pace of accelerating integration into Bard big model.</p><p>So on the surface, where has AGI's progress gone?</p><p>Recently, the Microsoft research team gave the answer with a 154-page paper report-<b>The GPT-4 language model can be regarded as an early version of AGI!</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d03f8e255882a99c71fc0f021a323b16\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"811\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One stone stirred up a thousand waves, and the industry's reaction to this paper is no less absurd than last year when I heard that \"Google engineers said that AI has self-awareness\", but now I think that there is something impossible, and after reading it deeply, I feel a little real.</p><p>The so-called AGI is explained only by Wikipedia-\"AGI is an artificial intelligence with the same intelligence as human beings or surpassing human beings, and can exhibit all the intelligent behaviors of normal humans\". If GPT-4 really has become the first step to AGI, will the title of \"the most advanced intelligent creature\" change hands?</p><p><b>GPT-4 is reasonably seen as an earlier (but still incomplete) version of AGI</b></p><p>In the paper, the Microsoft researchers said, \"The latest model, GPT-4, developed by OpenAI, was trained using an unprecedented scale of computation and data. In the paper, we report our investigation of an early version of GPT-4, when it was still under active development by OpenAI. We believe that (this early version of) GPT-4 is part of a new batch of LLMs (together with ChatGPT and Google's PaLM, for example) that exhibit more general intelligence than previous AI models.\"</p><p>Meanwhile, the researchers wrote in the abstract of the paper, \"We demonstrate that in addition to mastery of language, GPT-4 can solve novel and difficult tasks spanning fields such as mathematics, coding, vision, medicine, law, psychology, and more without any special prompts. In addition,<b>In</b>In all of these tasks, GPT-4 performed surprisingly close to human levels and often greatly outperformed previous models such as ChatGPT<b>。 Given the breadth and depth of GPT-4's capabilities, we think it is reasonable to view it as an early (but still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system.</b>”</p><p>The authors behind this paper, including Sébastien Bubeck, Senior Principal Research Manager of the Machine Learning Foundation Group at Microsoft Research, Varun Chandrasekaran, a postdoctoral researcher, Ronen Eldan, a mathematician, and others, have reached such a conclusion, using many examples to verify the capabilities of GPT-4.</p><p><b>Multi-capability of GPT-4</b></p><p>In the first case, the researchers asked GPT-4 to \"write a proof with an infinite number of primes, and the proof expression rhymes on each line,\" and GPT-4 to draw a unicorn in the drawing program TiKZ. \" Among them, TiKZ (a language for creating graphics in LATEX), creates a complex animation in Python and solves a high school level math problem.</p><p>GPT-4 is readily successful in all of these tasks and produces output results that are essentially indistinguishable (or even better) than what humans can produce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05d65285f01dbb0ac96bbf0802df8511\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the same time, over time, GPT-4 is constantly expanding its capabilities at an unimaginable rate. As shown in the figure below, the researchers used the same prompt words to get GPT-4 to generate a plot over a one-month period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a00d527473c5f93eb1b79b5bae32c3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The researchers found that GPT-4 appeared to be able to understand and connect to any topic and was able to perform tasks beyond the typical scope of narrow AI systems. To verify the capabilities of GPT-4 on AGI, the researchers proposed a different approach to studying GPT-4, which is closer to traditional psychology than machine learning, harnessing human creativity and curiosity.</p><p>Therefore, taking the above figure as an example, when the researchers think that the code of the unicorn horn part is deleted, and when GPT-4 is generated in natural language, it can also achieve the ability of \"seeing\" (the version of GPT-4 tested at this time is not multimodal): automatically add corners in appropriate positions. This indicates that GPT-4 it can understand and manipulate code according to natural language descriptions, as well as infer and generate visual features.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca60dc79c4d71f395fb827dac68a3e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the Microsoft research team generated novel and difficult problems based on human creativity and curiosity, and detected the reactions and behaviors of GPT-4. It also chose to verify the different abilities given in the 1994 international consensus definition of intelligence, including the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, understand complex ideas, learn quickly and learn from experience.</p><p><b>translate</b></p><p>The main advantage of GPT-4 is its unparalleled mastery of natural language. Not only can it generate smooth and coherent text, but it can also understand and process it in a variety of ways, such as summarizing, translating, or answering extremely complex questions. Furthermore, translation mentioned here By translation we mean not only translation between different natural languages, but also translation of tone and style, as well as translation across collars, such as medicine, law, accounting, computer programming, music, and so on. For example, assume that Plato criticizes the autoregressive language model:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0f4c13eabe0eee91bdb3f266d8e88f\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Coding and Data</b></p><p>Coding and mathematics are symbols of abstract reasoning and thinking abilities. In fact, the ability of GPT-4 at this point has been obvious to all since the day it was tested online.</p><p>In the paper, the researchers benchmarked GPT-4 on HumanEval, a dataset consisting of 164 coding questions that tested various aspects of programming logic and proficiency.</p><p>The final results show that GPT-4 outperforms other LLMs, including text-davinci-003 (the underlying model for ChatGPT) and other models trained specifically for code.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d65bda6dc18d1d667cbc6bee5b25d630\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"145\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, in order to avoid GPT-4 having already remembered some contents of the HumanEval dataset during pre-training, the research team also tested with the 100 programming questions newly released on LeetCode, such as asking GPT-4 to write a Python function and using LeetCode's official online judgment to check the correctness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32198a63144b30ac084460aca53b470d\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Without a doubt, the capabilities of GPT-4 are among the highest of all models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f544122b5a2a69928f152fe11ef42051\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It can write a 3D game in JavaScript in HTML.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49af5147998d6cc67c45b9710518b7e8\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"731\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>You can also master mathematics and statistics knowledge, and write deep learning code with familiarity with PyTorch, TensorFlow, Keras and other frameworks and libraries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e023c35eb4416661dc7b46412adc06\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"991\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It can also reverse engineer:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44cb9dfe023db457e53f1f7c60b760e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1019\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Common sense questions</b></p><p>In response to some common sense questions, such as \"We have a book, 9 eggs, a laptop, a bottle and a nail. Please tell me how to stack them together in a stable way\", the answer given by GPT-4 is, \"Arrange the 9 eggs in a 3-by-3 square and place them on top of the book, leaving some space between them\", while ChatGPT proposes \"Put the eggs on top of the nails to ensure that they are balanced and don't tilt to one side\", which is reliable and outrageous at a glance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1f9cd47eca000a48ae1dd5d793ab4c\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Multimodal capability</b></p><p>To test the model's ability to combine artistic and programming capabilities, the researchers asked GPT-4 to \"generate JavaScript code to generate random images in the style of painter Kandinsky,\" and the result was this:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81d7625bce02914c0f74f27386737a1d\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35c83936be2891ecd60fb804bd707a94\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the test, because the researchers got the GPT-4 model earlier, it did not have the ability of multimodality at that time, and even the current GPT-4 did not have the ability to generate images.</p><p>However, you can generate some images using SVG (Scalable Vector Graphics):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938a3d2786522a3e75078990fa422fb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>You can also combine letters and objects:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083df94d8b1309e5ebd0c477503ebf81\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"974\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>GPT-4 can generate code from prompts, which can be rendered as images, and then combined with existing image synthesis models, it is possible to bring unlimited possibilities to the sketch of application development:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9141519e08c8398a0423d686ba1ec9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth noting that the data of the GPT-4 model also contains music information encoded in ABC symbols, so it can also generate maps:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641412ac4938a0b06ea2bf083ed0d47c\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"870\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Ability to interact with the world</b></p><p>A key aspect of intelligence is interactivity. However, GPT-4 has certain limitations on the latest knowledge and symbol recognition:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e339e3647654071378efb8900a12f3e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Overall, the team found that the GPT-4 achieved near-human-level performance in a range of categories that were lacking in its previous generation. According to the paper, GPT-4 also performed very well on several exams, scoring 90, 88, and 86 on the Bar Exam, LSAT, and Certified Sommelier Theory test, respectively.</p><p><b>How far is GPT-4 from an ideal AGI?</b></p><p>Then, on the basis of GPT-4's realization of various capabilities, does it mean the arrival of AGI era? Actually, it is not so. Researchers have not yet agreed on the definition of AGI or intelligence. However, in general, everyone will agree that AGI has been reached when an AI system is conscious and thinks like a human. While GPT-4 outperformed humans in some tasks, it is worth noting that AI did not overcome these hurdles as well as humans.</p><p>This is also as the researchers wrote in the paper, \"We claim that GPT-4 represents progress in AGI, but that does not mean that it is perfect in what it does, or that it is close to being able to do anything that humans can do (which is one of the usual definitions of AGI), or that it has an inherent motivation and goal.\"</p><p>The researchers pointed out that although GPT-4 \"has reached or exceeded the human level in many tasks\", its overall \"intelligence mode is obviously unlike human\". They hope that this exploration will provide a first step to appreciate the extraordinary capabilities and challenges of GPT-4, and also hope that GPT-4 will open up new opportunities for developing more formal and comprehensive methods to test and analyze future artificial intelligence systems with such broad intelligence.</p><p>\"The central claim of our work is that GPT-4 reaches a form of general intelligence that really sparks AGI. This is manifested in its core mental abilities (such as reasoning, creativity, and reasoning), the range of subjects in which it gains expertise (such as literature, medicine, and coding), and the variety of tasks it is capable of performing (such as playing games, using tools, explaining itself,...),\" the researchers say. However, there is still a lot to be done to create a system that can be called a complete AGI.</p><p>Finally, this paper is worth a look for various benchmarks of GPT-4, and it can also tap into more potential of GPT-4.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"lsy1578046468581","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft's 154-page research paper brushes the screen! 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The most complete test exposure of GPT-4, saying that it opened the door of AGI for the first time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CSDN</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-27 19:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>In 2019, Microsoft smashed $1 billion into OpenAI, and the two started a several-year cooperation.</p><p>At that time, the public cooperation between the two companies included that Microsoft and OpenAI would jointly develop a new Azure AI supercomputing technology, and OpenAI would also transfer its services to Azure, with the ultimate goal of attacking Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) technology.</p><p>To sum up, Microsoft and OpenAI joined forces, which has also been interpreted by the outside world as, clearly for AGI research, secretly competing for Google market.</p><p>A few years later, when OpenAI returned with the king of ChatGPT and GPT-4, and Microsoft took the lead in using these technologies to add new Bing, Office Family Bucket, Azure and other businesses and products, there is no doubt that its progress has already surpassed Google's overall pace of accelerating integration into Bard big model.</p><p>So on the surface, where has AGI's progress gone?</p><p>Recently, the Microsoft research team gave the answer with a 154-page paper report-<b>The GPT-4 language model can be regarded as an early version of AGI!</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d03f8e255882a99c71fc0f021a323b16\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"811\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>One stone stirred up a thousand waves, and the industry's reaction to this paper is no less absurd than last year when I heard that \"Google engineers said that AI has self-awareness\", but now I think that there is something impossible, and after reading it deeply, I feel a little real.</p><p>The so-called AGI is explained only by Wikipedia-\"AGI is an artificial intelligence with the same intelligence as human beings or surpassing human beings, and can exhibit all the intelligent behaviors of normal humans\". If GPT-4 really has become the first step to AGI, will the title of \"the most advanced intelligent creature\" change hands?</p><p><b>GPT-4 is reasonably seen as an earlier (but still incomplete) version of AGI</b></p><p>In the paper, the Microsoft researchers said, \"The latest model, GPT-4, developed by OpenAI, was trained using an unprecedented scale of computation and data. In the paper, we report our investigation of an early version of GPT-4, when it was still under active development by OpenAI. We believe that (this early version of) GPT-4 is part of a new batch of LLMs (together with ChatGPT and Google's PaLM, for example) that exhibit more general intelligence than previous AI models.\"</p><p>Meanwhile, the researchers wrote in the abstract of the paper, \"We demonstrate that in addition to mastery of language, GPT-4 can solve novel and difficult tasks spanning fields such as mathematics, coding, vision, medicine, law, psychology, and more without any special prompts. In addition,<b>In</b>In all of these tasks, GPT-4 performed surprisingly close to human levels and often greatly outperformed previous models such as ChatGPT<b>。 Given the breadth and depth of GPT-4's capabilities, we think it is reasonable to view it as an early (but still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system.</b>”</p><p>The authors behind this paper, including Sébastien Bubeck, Senior Principal Research Manager of the Machine Learning Foundation Group at Microsoft Research, Varun Chandrasekaran, a postdoctoral researcher, Ronen Eldan, a mathematician, and others, have reached such a conclusion, using many examples to verify the capabilities of GPT-4.</p><p><b>Multi-capability of GPT-4</b></p><p>In the first case, the researchers asked GPT-4 to \"write a proof with an infinite number of primes, and the proof expression rhymes on each line,\" and GPT-4 to draw a unicorn in the drawing program TiKZ. \" Among them, TiKZ (a language for creating graphics in LATEX), creates a complex animation in Python and solves a high school level math problem.</p><p>GPT-4 is readily successful in all of these tasks and produces output results that are essentially indistinguishable (or even better) than what humans can produce.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05d65285f01dbb0ac96bbf0802df8511\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>At the same time, over time, GPT-4 is constantly expanding its capabilities at an unimaginable rate. As shown in the figure below, the researchers used the same prompt words to get GPT-4 to generate a plot over a one-month period.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83a00d527473c5f93eb1b79b5bae32c3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>The researchers found that GPT-4 appeared to be able to understand and connect to any topic and was able to perform tasks beyond the typical scope of narrow AI systems. To verify the capabilities of GPT-4 on AGI, the researchers proposed a different approach to studying GPT-4, which is closer to traditional psychology than machine learning, harnessing human creativity and curiosity.</p><p>Therefore, taking the above figure as an example, when the researchers think that the code of the unicorn horn part is deleted, and when GPT-4 is generated in natural language, it can also achieve the ability of \"seeing\" (the version of GPT-4 tested at this time is not multimodal): automatically add corners in appropriate positions. This indicates that GPT-4 it can understand and manipulate code according to natural language descriptions, as well as infer and generate visual features.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca60dc79c4d71f395fb827dac68a3e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"475\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>In addition, the Microsoft research team generated novel and difficult problems based on human creativity and curiosity, and detected the reactions and behaviors of GPT-4. It also chose to verify the different abilities given in the 1994 international consensus definition of intelligence, including the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, understand complex ideas, learn quickly and learn from experience.</p><p><b>translate</b></p><p>The main advantage of GPT-4 is its unparalleled mastery of natural language. Not only can it generate smooth and coherent text, but it can also understand and process it in a variety of ways, such as summarizing, translating, or answering extremely complex questions. Furthermore, translation mentioned here By translation we mean not only translation between different natural languages, but also translation of tone and style, as well as translation across collars, such as medicine, law, accounting, computer programming, music, and so on. For example, assume that Plato criticizes the autoregressive language model:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc0f4c13eabe0eee91bdb3f266d8e88f\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"748\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Coding and Data</b></p><p>Coding and mathematics are symbols of abstract reasoning and thinking abilities. In fact, the ability of GPT-4 at this point has been obvious to all since the day it was tested online.</p><p>In the paper, the researchers benchmarked GPT-4 on HumanEval, a dataset consisting of 164 coding questions that tested various aspects of programming logic and proficiency.</p><p>The final results show that GPT-4 outperforms other LLMs, including text-davinci-003 (the underlying model for ChatGPT) and other models trained specifically for code.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d65bda6dc18d1d667cbc6bee5b25d630\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"145\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Of course, in order to avoid GPT-4 having already remembered some contents of the HumanEval dataset during pre-training, the research team also tested with the 100 programming questions newly released on LeetCode, such as asking GPT-4 to write a Python function and using LeetCode's official online judgment to check the correctness.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32198a63144b30ac084460aca53b470d\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"776\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Without a doubt, the capabilities of GPT-4 are among the highest of all models.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f544122b5a2a69928f152fe11ef42051\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It can write a 3D game in JavaScript in HTML.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49af5147998d6cc67c45b9710518b7e8\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"731\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>You can also master mathematics and statistics knowledge, and write deep learning code with familiarity with PyTorch, TensorFlow, Keras and other frameworks and libraries.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70e023c35eb4416661dc7b46412adc06\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"991\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It can also reverse engineer:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44cb9dfe023db457e53f1f7c60b760e2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1019\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Common sense questions</b></p><p>In response to some common sense questions, such as \"We have a book, 9 eggs, a laptop, a bottle and a nail. Please tell me how to stack them together in a stable way\", the answer given by GPT-4 is, \"Arrange the 9 eggs in a 3-by-3 square and place them on top of the book, leaving some space between them\", while ChatGPT proposes \"Put the eggs on top of the nails to ensure that they are balanced and don't tilt to one side\", which is reliable and outrageous at a glance.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db1f9cd47eca000a48ae1dd5d793ab4c\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Multimodal capability</b></p><p>To test the model's ability to combine artistic and programming capabilities, the researchers asked GPT-4 to \"generate JavaScript code to generate random images in the style of painter Kandinsky,\" and the result was this:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81d7625bce02914c0f74f27386737a1d\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35c83936be2891ecd60fb804bd707a94\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>During the test, because the researchers got the GPT-4 model earlier, it did not have the ability of multimodality at that time, and even the current GPT-4 did not have the ability to generate images.</p><p>However, you can generate some images using SVG (Scalable Vector Graphics):</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938a3d2786522a3e75078990fa422fb7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>You can also combine letters and objects:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/083df94d8b1309e5ebd0c477503ebf81\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"974\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>GPT-4 can generate code from prompts, which can be rendered as images, and then combined with existing image synthesis models, it is possible to bring unlimited possibilities to the sketch of application development:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9141519e08c8398a0423d686ba1ec9b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"532\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>It is worth noting that the data of the GPT-4 model also contains music information encoded in ABC symbols, so it can also generate maps:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641412ac4938a0b06ea2bf083ed0d47c\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"870\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Ability to interact with the world</b></p><p>A key aspect of intelligence is interactivity. However, GPT-4 has certain limitations on the latest knowledge and symbol recognition:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e339e3647654071378efb8900a12f3e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Overall, the team found that the GPT-4 achieved near-human-level performance in a range of categories that were lacking in its previous generation. According to the paper, GPT-4 also performed very well on several exams, scoring 90, 88, and 86 on the Bar Exam, LSAT, and Certified Sommelier Theory test, respectively.</p><p><b>How far is GPT-4 from an ideal AGI?</b></p><p>Then, on the basis of GPT-4's realization of various capabilities, does it mean the arrival of AGI era? Actually, it is not so. Researchers have not yet agreed on the definition of AGI or intelligence. However, in general, everyone will agree that AGI has been reached when an AI system is conscious and thinks like a human. While GPT-4 outperformed humans in some tasks, it is worth noting that AI did not overcome these hurdles as well as humans.</p><p>This is also as the researchers wrote in the paper, \"We claim that GPT-4 represents progress in AGI, but that does not mean that it is perfect in what it does, or that it is close to being able to do anything that humans can do (which is one of the usual definitions of AGI), or that it has an inherent motivation and goal.\"</p><p>The researchers pointed out that although GPT-4 \"has reached or exceeded the human level in many tasks\", its overall \"intelligence mode is obviously unlike human\". They hope that this exploration will provide a first step to appreciate the extraordinary capabilities and challenges of GPT-4, and also hope that GPT-4 will open up new opportunities for developing more formal and comprehensive methods to test and analyze future artificial intelligence systems with such broad intelligence.</p><p>\"The central claim of our work is that GPT-4 reaches a form of general intelligence that really sparks AGI. This is manifested in its core mental abilities (such as reasoning, creativity, and reasoning), the range of subjects in which it gains expertise (such as literature, medicine, and coding), and the variety of tasks it is capable of performing (such as playing games, using tools, explaining itself,...),\" the researchers say. However, there is still a lot to be done to create a system that can be called a complete AGI.</p><p>Finally, this paper is worth a look for various benchmarks of GPT-4, and it can also tap into more potential of GPT-4.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SRtxiqeGbAIXl-8KraGAyQ\">CSDN</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9e6cb1a33dd64f159118795f199c2f3","relate_stocks":{"BK7510":"REITs概念","LU0498741890.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Gold and Precious Metals A (acc) SGD","GPT.AU":"GPT GROUP","LU0072462426.USD":"贝莱德全球配置 A2","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","AGI":"Alamos Gold Inc","IE00BJTD4N35.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Long Short Equity A1 Acc SGD-H","LU0289941410.SGD":"AB FCP I Dynamic Diversified AX SGD","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","BK4588":"碎股","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","BK4525":"远程办公概念","GPT":"Intelligent alpha atlas ETF","MSFT":"微软","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0238689110.USD":"贝莱德环球动力股票基金","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SRtxiqeGbAIXl-8KraGAyQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126058534","content_text":"2019 年,微软用 10 亿美元砸进 OpenAI,两者展开为期数年的合作。当时两家对外公开的合作内容包括,微软和 OpenAI 将联合开发新的 Azure AI 超级计算技术,而 OpenAI 也将把它的服务转移到 Azure 上运行,最终目标是向通用人工智能(Artificial General Intelligence,AGI)技术发起进攻。简单总结,微软与 OpenAI 联手,也被外界解读为,明为 AGI 研究,暗争 Google 市场。几年之后,当 OpenAI 带着 ChatGPT、GPT-4 王者归来,微软率先利用这些技术加码新 Bing、Office 全家桶、Azure 等业务、产品之时,毋庸置疑,其进度早已超越了 Google 还在加快融入 Bard 大模型的整体步伐。那么在明面上,AGI 的进度到底走到了哪里?近日,微软研究团队用 154 页的论文报告内容给出了解答——GPT-4 语言模型可以被视为 AGI 的早期版本!一石激起千层浪,业界对于这篇论文的反应,不亚于去年听到「Google 工程师称 AI 已有自我意识」初觉有些荒诞,只是现如今再想会认为有什么不可能,深读后又觉得有些许的真实。所谓 AGI,仅通过维基百科的解释——「AGI 是具备与人类同等智能、或超越人类的人工智能,能表现正常人类所具有的所有智能行为」。倘若 GPT-4 真的已成为通往 AGI 的第一步,「最高等的智慧生物」称号是不是要易主了?GPT-4 被合理地视为 AGI 的早期(但仍不完整)的版本在论文中,微软研究人员表示,「由 OpenAI 开发的最新模型 GPT-4,是使用前所未有的计算和数据规模训练出来的。在论文中,我们报告了我们对 GPT-4 早期版本的调查,当时它还在 OpenAI 的积极开发中。我们认为,(这个早期版本的)GPT-4 是新一批 LLM(例如,与 ChatGPT 和谷歌的 PaLM 一起)的一部分,它比以前的 AI 模型表现出更多的通用智能。」与此同时,研究人员在论文摘要中写道,“我们证明,除了对语言的掌握,GPT-4 还能解决跨越数学、编码、视觉、医学、法律、心理学等领域的新颖而困难的任务,而不需要任何特殊的提示。此外,在所有这些任务中,GPT-4 的表现都惊人地接近人类水平,而且往往大大超过了 ChatGPT 等先前的模型。鉴于 GPT-4 能力的广度和深度,我们认为可以合理地将其视为人工通用智能(AGI)系统的早期(但仍不完整)版本。”之所以得出这样的结论,这篇论文背后的作者包括微软研究院机器学习基础组的高级首席研究经理 Sébastien Bubeck、博士后研究员 Varun Chandrasekaran、数学家 Ronen Eldan 等人,用许多示例对 GPT-4 的能力进行了验证。GPT-4 的多能力在第一个案例中,研究人员要求 GPT-4 「写出有无限多个素数的证明,且证明的表述要每行都押韵」,另外 GPT-4 要在绘图程序 TiKZ 中画出一只独角兽」。其中,TiKZ(一种在 LATEX 中创建图形的语言),用 Python 创建一个复杂的动画,并解决一个高中水平的数学问题。GPT-4 在所有这些任务中都很容易取得成功,并且产生的输出结果基本上与人类所能产生的结果没有区别(甚至更好)。同时,随着时间的推移,GPT-4 也在以难以想象的速度不断扩充自己的能力。如下图所示是一个月期间,研究人员用相同的提示词让 GPT-4 生成的绘图。研究人员发现,GPT-4 似乎能够理解和连接任何主题,并且能够执行任务,这超出了狭义人工智能系统的典型范围。为了验证 GPT-4 在 AGI 上所具备的能力,研究人员提出了一种不同的方法来研究 GPT-4,它更接近于传统的心理学而不是机器学习,利用人类的创造力和好奇心。因此,以上图为例,当研究人员把独角兽角部分的代码认为删除之后,用自然语言让 GPT-4 生成时,它也能做到“看”(此时测试的 GPT-4 版本不是多模态的)的能力:自动在合适位置加上角。这表明 GPT-4 它可以根据自然语言描述来理解和操作代码,以及推断和生成视觉特征。另外,微软研究团队基于人类的创造力和好奇心来产生新颖和困难的问题,并探测 GPT-4 的反应和行为,也选择从 1994 年国际共识智力定义中的所给出不同能力进行验证,包括推理、计划、解决问题、抽象思考、理解复杂的想法、快速学习和从经验中学习的能力。翻译GPT-4 的主要优势是它对自然语言无与伦比地掌握。它不仅可以生成生成流畅和连贯的文本,而且还能以各种方式理解和处理它,如总结、翻译或回答极其复杂的问题。此外,这里提到的翻译我们所说的翻译不仅是指不同自然语言之间的翻译,还包括语气和风格的翻译,以及跨领的翻译,如医学、法律、会计、计算机编程、音乐等等。如假设是柏拉图批判自回归语言模型:编码和数据编码和数学是抽象推理和思维能力的象征。GPT-4 在这一点上的能力,其实自上线测试那一天,便有目共睹。在论文中,研究人员在 HumanEval 上对 GPT-4 进行基准测试,该数据集由 164 个编码问题组成,测试了编程逻辑和熟练程度的各个方面。最终结果显示,GPT-4 优于其他 LLM,包括 text-davinci-003(ChatGPT 的基础模型)和其他专门针对代码训练的模型。当然为了避免 GPT-4 在预训练时已经记住了HumanEval 数据集的一些内容,研究团队还用 LeetCode 上最新发布的 100 个编程问题进行了测试,如要求 GPT-4 编写一个 Python 函数,并使用 LeetCode 的官方在线评判来检查正确性。毫无疑问,GPT-4 的能力是所有模型中最高的。它可以在 HTML 中用 JavaScript 编写一个 3D 游戏。也能掌握数学、统计学知识,以及凭借对 PyTorch、TensorFlow、Keras 等框架和库的熟悉度,编写深度学习的代码。还能逆向工程:常识性问题针对一些常识性问题,如“我们有一本书,9 个鸡蛋,一台笔记本电脑,一个瓶子和一个钉子。请告诉我如何以稳定的方式将它们叠在一起”,GPT-4 给出的解答是,“将 9 个鸡蛋摆成 3 乘 3 的正方形,放在书的上面,在它们之间留出一些空间”,而 ChatGPT 提出「将鸡蛋放在钉子上面,确保它们是平衡的,不会向一边倾斜」,靠谱和离谱还是一眼就能辨清楚的。多模态能力为了测试该模型结合艺术和编程能力的能力,研究人员要求 GPT-4 \"生成 JavaScript 代码,以画家康定斯基的风格生成随机图像\",结果是这样的:在测试时,因为研究人员拿到GPT-4 模型比较早,当时并不具备多模态能力,即使是现在的 GPT-4 也不具备生成图像等能力。不过倒是可以使用 SVG(可扩展矢量图形)生成一些图像:还能结合字母和物体:GPT-4 可以从提示中生成代码,这些代码可以被呈现为图像,再与现有的图像合成模型相结合,就有可能为应用开发的草图带来无限的可能:值得注意的是,GPT-4 模型的数据也包含了以ABC符号编码的音乐信息,所以它也能生成图谱:与世界交互的能力智能的一个关键方面是互动性。不过 GPT-4 对当前最新的知识和符号识别是存在一定的局限性的:整体而言,研究小组发现,GPT-4 在其上一代产品所缺乏的一系列类别中达到了接近人类水平的性能。根据该论文,GPT-4 在几次考试中也表现得非常好,在律师考试、LSAT 和注册侍酒师理论测试中的得分分别为 90 分、88 分和 86 分。GPT-4 距离理想中的 AGI 还有多远?那么,在 GPT-4 实现种种能力的基础上,是否就意味着 AGI 时代的到来。其实不然,研究人员目前尚未就 AGI 或智能的定义达成一致。然而,一般来说,大家都会同意,当一个人工智能系统有意识并像人类一样思考时,就已经达到了 AGI。虽然 GPT-4 在一些任务中的表现优于人类,但值得注意的是,人工智能并没有像人类那样克服这些障碍。这也正如研究人员在论文中写道,“我们声称 GPT-4 代表了 AGI 的进步,但这并不意味着它在做什么方面是完美的,或者它接近于能够做人类能做的任何事情(这是 AGI 的通常定义之一),或者它有内在的动机和目标。”研究人员指出,虽然 GPT-4 \"在许多任务上达到或超过了人类水平\",但它的整体 \"智能模式明显不像人类\",其希望这一次的探索提供了一个欣赏 GPT-4 的非凡能力和挑战的第一步,也希望 GPT-4 为开发更正式和全面的方法来测试和分析具有如此广泛智能的未来人工智能系统开辟了新的机会。「我们工作的核心主张是,GPT-4 达到了一种通用智能的形式,确实擦出了 AGI 的火花。这表现在它的核心心智能力(如推理、创造力和推理),它获得专业知识的主题范围(如文学、医学和编码),以及它能够完成的各种任务(如玩游戏、使用工具、解释自己,......)」研究人员说道,不过,要创建一个可以被称为完整的 AGI 的系统,还有很多事情要做。最后,这篇论文对于GPT-4 各种基准测试还是值得一看,从中也能挖掘出 GPT-4 更多的潜力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GPT.AU":0.9,"AGI":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,"GPT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4427,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941972352,"gmtCreate":1679937672277,"gmtModify":1679937675902,"author":{"id":"4142132894490722","authorId":"4142132894490722","name":"Meih","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4142132894490722","idStr":"4142132894490722"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶] ","listText":"[惊讶] ","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941972352","repostId":"1188760696","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188760696","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1679929853,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1188760696?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-27 23:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Learning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188760696","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"分析师表示,如果信用额度被取消,企业就必须裁员、削减开支,并采取其他必要行动。随着消费者削减开支,需求减少进一步影响到企业。这样的恶性循环将不断重复,直到经济陷入衰退。银行业危机很可能是经济形势恶化的","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>If the line of credit is removed, companies will have to cut jobs, cut expenses and take other necessary actions, analysts said. As consumers cut back on spending, reduced demand further affects businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession. The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</p><p>On March 25, Lance Roberts, an analyst at Real Investment Advice, wrote on the website that historically, the banking crisis was the first piece of evidence of problems as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p>Last week, after including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>Government agencies took action after several banks went bankrupt. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. FDIC, the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have released a term loan program for banks, the BTFP, offering $25 billion in loans as guarantee to protect uninsured depositors from the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>Subsequently, 11 major large banks provided $30 billion in uninsured deposits to First Republic Bank. Roberts Think that,<b>Without guarantees from the Federal Reserve and Treasury, these deposits would not have appeared.</b></p><p>Banks then quickly took advantage of the lending program, and borrowing from the Federal Reserve surged by $152 billion, the largest borrowing in a week since the financial crisis. That number has soared to nearly $300 billion since last week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ae18323ab7e3883a5cdec1f1ae1be3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since then,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Acquired with the help of the government<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The Federal Reserve reopened its dollar swap line to provide liquidity for foreign banks.</p><p>On March 19, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank announced a coordinated action to strengthen the liquidity supply through a long-term dollar liquidity swap arrangement. In order to improve the effectiveness of swap lines in providing dollar funds, central banks currently providing dollar business have agreed to increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. These daily operations began on March 20 and will continue until at least the end of April.</p><p>Roberts denotes,<b>Historically, further monetary easing measures — from interest rate cuts, \"quantitative easing\" to other liquidity operations — have followed once the Fed has opened up its dollar swap line. Of course, this is usually a reaction to a banking crisis, a credit-related event, a recession, or a combination of all three.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce74955cbf82fc6ed9ad12f5c6ab8660\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>While the knee-jerk reaction to the reversal of monetary tightening is to buy risky assets, investors may want to be cautious because recessions tend to follow banking crises, Roberts said.</p><p><b>Banking crisis leads to recession</b></p><p>One obvious outcome of the banking crisis, Roberts noted, was the tightening of lending standards. Given that credit is the lifeblood of the economy, whether it is consumer or corporate credit, tightening lending standards has reduced economic mobility. When banks tighten lending standards for all types of businesses, a liquidity crunch will eventually lead to a recession. Many businesses rely on lines of credit or other measures to bridge the gap between producing a product or service and earning revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1970f0a20094a02f94bd0635eb78e52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Roberts argues that if the line of credit is removed, businesses will have to lay off workers, cut expenses, and take other necessary actions. The economic drag intensifies as consumers cut spending, with reduced demand further affecting businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession.</b></p><p>He added that there is a liquidity crunch in all forms of credit, from mortgages and auto loans to consumer credit.<b>The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bedc7e814291ec1e88f1ee6c08db190\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He also said that the last time there was such a sharp tightening of lending standards was during the economic stagnation caused by the pandemic. Many investors hope that the Fed's shift to monetary easing in response to recession risks will benefit stocks. But those hopes are likely to be lost, as a recession initially presents \"repricing risk\".</p><p><b>Recession poses repricing risk</b></p><p>Roberts went on to say that the optimistic expectation is that the bear market will end when the Fed makes a policy pivot. While there is nothing wrong with this expectation, it may not happen as quickly as bulls expect. When the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in history, it wasn't the end of a bear market for stocks, it was the beginning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a6101db72600ac0fa5efee7c29b839\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He noted that it was noteworthy that,<b>Most bear markets come after the Fed's policy pivot.</b>This is because policy shifts are often accompanied by a perception that something is going wrong economically (i.e., a recession) or financially (i.e., a credit crisis). When that happens and the Fed starts to act,<b>The market will reprice a sluggish economy and lower earnings growth rates.</b></p><p>Data from Real Investment Advice shows that current forward estimates of earnings remain well above the long-term growth trend, while earnings typically fall below the long-term growth trend during a recession or other financial or economic event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7815326ff7c005a5a5671eeb36a517\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A better way to understand this, says Roberts, is to look at long-term exponential growth trends in earnings. Historically, earnings have grown approximately 6% from one peak earnings cycle to the next. During a recession, deviations above the long-term exponential growth trend are corrected. The peak growth rate of 6% comes from an annual economic growth rate of about 6%.<b>It can be concluded that annual earnings changes are highly correlated with economic growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f5d7f221e55be18e778f7b2d98aeff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Given that earnings are a function of economic activity, current estimates for the end of the year are unsustainable if the economy contracts, he said. Therefore, this deviation from long-term growth is unsustainable in a recession environment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6262ba11c997e5b6277d817b3b88db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Roberts pointed out that,<b>Since valuations are assumptions of future earnings, asset prices must be repriced to counter earnings risk, especially during the banking crisis.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adce27e3d79c15302590b01a071eaf8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investors face two certain things, Roberts concludes: One is that the Federal Reserve's rate hike has triggered a banking crisis that will end in a recession as lending contracts; Second, it will force the Fed to finally cut interest rates and restart the next \"quantitative easing\" plan. Therefore, when the Fed begins to cut interest rates for the first time, it begins to acknowledge a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Learning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLearning from History: How Far Is the U.S. Economy From a Recession After the Banking Crisis?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-27 23:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>If the line of credit is removed, companies will have to cut jobs, cut expenses and take other necessary actions, analysts said. As consumers cut back on spending, reduced demand further affects businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession. The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</p><p>On March 25, Lance Roberts, an analyst at Real Investment Advice, wrote on the website that historically, the banking crisis was the first piece of evidence of problems as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.</p><p>Last week, after including<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>Government agencies took action after several banks went bankrupt. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. FDIC, the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve have released a term loan program for banks, the BTFP, offering $25 billion in loans as guarantee to protect uninsured depositors from the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank.</p><p>Subsequently, 11 major large banks provided $30 billion in uninsured deposits to First Republic Bank. Roberts Think that,<b>Without guarantees from the Federal Reserve and Treasury, these deposits would not have appeared.</b></p><p>Banks then quickly took advantage of the lending program, and borrowing from the Federal Reserve surged by $152 billion, the largest borrowing in a week since the financial crisis. That number has soared to nearly $300 billion since last week.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ae18323ab7e3883a5cdec1f1ae1be3e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Since then,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>Acquired with the help of the government<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>The Federal Reserve reopened its dollar swap line to provide liquidity for foreign banks.</p><p>On March 19, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the Swiss National Bank announced a coordinated action to strengthen the liquidity supply through a long-term dollar liquidity swap arrangement. In order to improve the effectiveness of swap lines in providing dollar funds, central banks currently providing dollar business have agreed to increase the frequency of seven-day maturity operations from weekly to daily. These daily operations began on March 20 and will continue until at least the end of April.</p><p>Roberts denotes,<b>Historically, further monetary easing measures — from interest rate cuts, \"quantitative easing\" to other liquidity operations — have followed once the Fed has opened up its dollar swap line. Of course, this is usually a reaction to a banking crisis, a credit-related event, a recession, or a combination of all three.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce74955cbf82fc6ed9ad12f5c6ab8660\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"373\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>While the knee-jerk reaction to the reversal of monetary tightening is to buy risky assets, investors may want to be cautious because recessions tend to follow banking crises, Roberts said.</p><p><b>Banking crisis leads to recession</b></p><p>One obvious outcome of the banking crisis, Roberts noted, was the tightening of lending standards. Given that credit is the lifeblood of the economy, whether it is consumer or corporate credit, tightening lending standards has reduced economic mobility. When banks tighten lending standards for all types of businesses, a liquidity crunch will eventually lead to a recession. Many businesses rely on lines of credit or other measures to bridge the gap between producing a product or service and earning revenue.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1970f0a20094a02f94bd0635eb78e52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Roberts argues that if the line of credit is removed, businesses will have to lay off workers, cut expenses, and take other necessary actions. The economic drag intensifies as consumers cut spending, with reduced demand further affecting businesses. Such an a vicious circle will repeat itself until the economy slips into recession.</b></p><p>He added that there is a liquidity crunch in all forms of credit, from mortgages and auto loans to consumer credit.<b>The banking crisis is likely to be the first warning sign of a worsening economic situation.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bedc7e814291ec1e88f1ee6c08db190\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He also said that the last time there was such a sharp tightening of lending standards was during the economic stagnation caused by the pandemic. Many investors hope that the Fed's shift to monetary easing in response to recession risks will benefit stocks. But those hopes are likely to be lost, as a recession initially presents \"repricing risk\".</p><p><b>Recession poses repricing risk</b></p><p>Roberts went on to say that the optimistic expectation is that the bear market will end when the Fed makes a policy pivot. While there is nothing wrong with this expectation, it may not happen as quickly as bulls expect. When the Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in history, it wasn't the end of a bear market for stocks, it was the beginning.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a6101db72600ac0fa5efee7c29b839\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"343\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>He noted that it was noteworthy that,<b>Most bear markets come after the Fed's policy pivot.</b>This is because policy shifts are often accompanied by a perception that something is going wrong economically (i.e., a recession) or financially (i.e., a credit crisis). When that happens and the Fed starts to act,<b>The market will reprice a sluggish economy and lower earnings growth rates.</b></p><p>Data from Real Investment Advice shows that current forward estimates of earnings remain well above the long-term growth trend, while earnings typically fall below the long-term growth trend during a recession or other financial or economic event.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de7815326ff7c005a5a5671eeb36a517\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>A better way to understand this, says Roberts, is to look at long-term exponential growth trends in earnings. Historically, earnings have grown approximately 6% from one peak earnings cycle to the next. During a recession, deviations above the long-term exponential growth trend are corrected. The peak growth rate of 6% comes from an annual economic growth rate of about 6%.<b>It can be concluded that annual earnings changes are highly correlated with economic growth.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83f5d7f221e55be18e778f7b2d98aeff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"385\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Given that earnings are a function of economic activity, current estimates for the end of the year are unsustainable if the economy contracts, he said. Therefore, this deviation from long-term growth is unsustainable in a recession environment.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6262ba11c997e5b6277d817b3b88db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Roberts pointed out that,<b>Since valuations are assumptions of future earnings, asset prices must be repriced to counter earnings risk, especially during the banking crisis.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adce27e3d79c15302590b01a071eaf8d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Investors face two certain things, Roberts concludes: One is that the Federal Reserve's rate hike has triggered a banking crisis that will end in a recession as lending contracts; Second, it will force the Fed to finally cut interest rates and restart the next \"quantitative easing\" plan. Therefore, when the Fed begins to cut interest rates for the first time, it begins to acknowledge a recession.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{"161121":"银行"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188760696","content_text":"分析师表示,如果信用额度被取消,企业就必须裁员、削减开支,并采取其他必要行动。随着消费者削减开支,需求减少进一步影响到企业。这样的恶性循环将不断重复,直到经济陷入衰退。银行业危机很可能是经济形势恶化的第一个警告信号。3月25日,Real Investment Advice 的分析师 Lance Roberts 在网站上写道,从历史上看,随着美联储收紧货币政策,银行业危机是问题出现的第一项证据。上周,在包括硅谷银行在内的几家银行破产倒闭后,政府机构采取了行动。联邦存款保险公司FDIC、财政部和美联储发布了一项银行定期贷款计划BTFP,提供250亿美元贷款作为担保,以保护未投保的储户免受硅谷银行破产的影响。随后,11家主要大型银行向第一共和国银行提供了300亿美元的无保险存款。Roberts 认为,如果没有美联储和财政部的保证,是不会出现这些存款的。银行随后迅速利用了这一贷款计划,向美联储借贷的资金激增了1520亿美元,这是自金融危机以来一周内规模最大的借款。自上周以来,这一数字已飙升至近3000亿美元。自那以后,瑞银在政府的撮合下收购了瑞士信贷,美联储重新开放了美元互换额度,为外国银行提供流动性。3月19日,加拿大央行、英国央行、日本央行、欧洲央行、美联储和瑞士央行银行宣布了一项协调行动,通过长期美元流动性互换安排加强流动性供应。为了提高互换额度在提供美元资金方面的有效性,目前提供美元业务的央行已同意将7天到期操作的频率从每周增加到每天。这些日常操作从3月20日开始,将至少将持续到4月底。Roberts 表示,从历史上看,一旦美联储开放美元互换额度,进一步的货币宽松措施——从降息、“量化宽松”到其他流动性操作就会随之而来。当然,这通常是对银行危机、信贷相关事件、经济衰退的反应,或三者兼而有之。Roberts 表示,尽管对货币紧缩政策逆转的下意识反应是购买风险资产,但投资者可能希望保持谨慎,因为经济衰退往往会在银行业危机之后出现。银行业危机导致经济衰退Roberts 指出,银行业危机的一个明显结果就是贷款标准的收紧。鉴于信贷是经济的命脉,无论是消费者信贷还是企业信贷,贷款标准的收紧都减少了经济流动。当银行收紧对各类企业的贷款标准时,流动性紧缩最终会导致经济衰退。许多企业依靠信用额度或其他措施来弥补生产产品或服务与获得收入之间的差距。Roberts 认为,如果信用额度被取消,企业就必须裁员、削减开支,并采取其他必要的行动。随着消费者削减开支,经济拖累加剧,需求减少进一步影响到企业。这样的恶性循环将不断重复,直到经济陷入衰退。他补充称,目前从抵押贷款、汽车贷款到消费信贷,所有形式的信贷都在出现流动性的紧缩。银行业危机很可能是经济形势恶化的第一个警告信号。他还说,上一次贷款标准出现如此大幅度的紧缩还是在疫情导致的经济停滞期间。许多投资者希望,美联储转向放松货币政策以应对衰退风险,这将利好股市。但这些希望可能会落空,因为经济衰退最初会带来“重新定价风险”。经济衰退带来重新定价风险Roberts 继续表示,乐观的预期是,当美联储做出政策转向时,熊市将会结束。虽然这种预期没有错,但它可能不会像多头预期的那样迅速发生。当美联储在历史上开始降息时,这并不是股市熊市的结束,而是开始。他指出,值得注意的是,大多数熊市都出现在美联储的政策转向之后。这是因为政策转向通常伴随着一种认知,即某些东西在经济上(即经济衰退)或金融上(即信用危机)出现了问题。当这种情况发生,美联储开始采取行动时,市场会为低迷的经济和更低的盈利增长率重新定价。Real Investment Advice的数据显示,目前对盈利的远期估计仍远高于长期增长趋势,而在经济衰退或其他金融或经济事件期间,盈利通常会低于长期增长趋势。Roberts 称,理解这一点的更好的方法是观察收益的长期指数增长趋势。从历史上看,从一个峰值收益周期到下一个峰值收益周期,收益大约增长大约6%。在经济衰退期间,高于长期指数增长趋势的偏差会得到修正。6%的峰值增长率来自于大约6%的年度经济增长率。可以得出结论,年度收益变化与经济增长高度相关。他表示,鉴于收益是经济活动的函数,如果经济收缩,目前对年底的估计是不可持续的。因此在经济衰退环境下,这种偏离长期增长的趋势是不可持续的。Roberts 指出,由于估值是对未来收益的假设,因此资产价格必须重新定价以应对盈利风险,尤其是在银行业危机期间。Roberts 总结道,投资者面临着两件肯定的事情:一是美联储的加息引发了一场银行业危机,随着贷款收缩,这场危机将以衰退告终;二是这将迫使美联储最终降息并重启下一个“量化宽松”计划。因此,当美联储开启第一次降息,就是开始承认经济衰退。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161121":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941972944,"gmtCreate":1679937590189,"gmtModify":1679937595285,"author":{"id":"4142132894490722","authorId":"4142132894490722","name":"Meih","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4142132894490722","idStr":"4142132894490722"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] ","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941972944","repostId":"1137758299","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137758299","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1679917804,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137758299?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-27 19:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Pre-market | Silicon Valley Bank will be \"taken over\"! First Citizens Bank stake soars nearly 40%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137758299","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月27日,美股指期货震荡走高,截止发稿,道指期货涨0.71%,纳指期货涨0.36%,标普500指数期货涨0.71%。盘前行情区域性银行股盘前走高,第一共和银行涨超25%,Silvergate涨超11","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 27th, the US stock index futures fluctuated higher. As of press time, the Dow futures rose by 0.71%, the Nasdaq futures rose by 0.36%, and the S&P 500 futures rose by 0.71%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfc414593502170abf983fb27929215\" tg-width=\"401\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Regional bank stocks rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>It rose by more than 25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SI\">Silvergate</a>It rose by more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">Westpac U.S. Bank</a>Up nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Aleans Western Bank</a>Up nearly 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USB\">U.S. Bancorp</a>It rose by more than 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCNCA\">First Citizens Bank Shares</a>It rose nearly 40% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The suspension continues with reports that First Citizens Bank will buy $72 billion of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank assets at a discounted price of $16.5 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It rose nearly 4% before the market, with the cost of insuring debt defaults falling, and analysts previously claimed that the German bank was in good financial shape.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">Novartis</a>It rose by more than 6% before the market, and the company's Phase 3 clinical trial of targeted anticancer drug Kisqali in combination with early breast cancer reached the primary endpoint.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNtech</a>It fell more than 4% premarket, with revenue of 4.28 billion euros in the fourth quarter of 2022, and the outlook for vaccine revenue was less than expected.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index rose 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>up 0.93%, and France's CAC40 rose 1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991f790bd8ab478168a6a1d62ca10fa4\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fluctuated higher. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 1.36% to $70.2/barrel; Brent crude oil rose 1.31% to $75.97/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e29fb681906171a6a8aad205d1a2bc\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13408c0418657dd4b974900cfec17fcb\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell during the day, falling 1.51% to $1,953.8/oz as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35bee694d78361cd74a986a1e99aab20\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pre-market | Silicon Valley Bank will be \"taken over\"! First Citizens Bank stake soars nearly 40%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPre-market | Silicon Valley Bank will be \"taken over\"! First Citizens Bank stake soars nearly 40%\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-27 19:50</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 27th, the US stock index futures fluctuated higher. As of press time, the Dow futures rose by 0.71%, the Nasdaq futures rose by 0.36%, and the S&P 500 futures rose by 0.71%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bfc414593502170abf983fb27929215\" tg-width=\"401\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Premarket Quotes</b></p><p>Regional bank stocks rose before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a>It rose by more than 25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SI\">Silvergate</a>It rose by more than 11%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PACW\">Westpac U.S. Bank</a>Up nearly 9%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WAL\">Aleans Western Bank</a>Up nearly 6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USB\">U.S. Bancorp</a>It rose by more than 3%.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCNCA\">First Citizens Bank Shares</a>It rose nearly 40% before the market,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SIVB\">Silicon Valley Bank</a>The suspension continues with reports that First Citizens Bank will buy $72 billion of Silicon Valley Bridge Bank assets at a discounted price of $16.5 billion.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It rose nearly 4% before the market, with the cost of insuring debt defaults falling, and analysts previously claimed that the German bank was in good financial shape.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">Novartis</a>It rose by more than 6% before the market, and the company's Phase 3 clinical trial of targeted anticancer drug Kisqali in combination with early breast cancer reached the primary endpoint.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNtech</a>It fell more than 4% premarket, with revenue of 4.28 billion euros in the fourth quarter of 2022, and the outlook for vaccine revenue was less than expected.</p><p><b>European market</b></p><p>Major European stock indexes rose across the board. As of press time, Germany's DAX30 index rose 1.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">FTSE 100 UK</a>up 0.93%, and France's CAC40 rose 1.1%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/991f790bd8ab478168a6a1d62ca10fa4\" tg-width=\"821\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>crude oil</b></p><p>Crude oil futures fluctuated higher. As of press time, WTI crude oil rose 1.36% to $70.2/barrel; Brent crude oil rose 1.31% to $75.97/barrel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5e29fb681906171a6a8aad205d1a2bc\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13408c0418657dd4b974900cfec17fcb\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"833\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Gold</b></p><p>Gold futures fell during the day, falling 1.51% to $1,953.8/oz as of press time.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35bee694d78361cd74a986a1e99aab20\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"834\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"VUKE.UK":"英国富时100","BK4118":"综合性资本市场","DB":"德意志银行","BK4566":"资本集团","NVS":"诺华","IE0002141913.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL LIFE SCIENCES \"I2\" (USD) ACC","SIVBQ":"硅谷银行","FCNCA":"第一公民银行股份","USB":"美国合众银行","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU0390134368.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4007":"制药","BK4589":"SVB概念","BK4211":"区域性银行","WAL":"阿莱恩斯西部银行","LU1861220207.SGD":"Blackrock FinTech A2 SGD-H","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137758299","content_text":"3月27日,美股指期货震荡走高,截止发稿,道指期货涨0.71%,纳指期货涨0.36%,标普500指数期货涨0.71%。盘前行情区域性银行股盘前走高,第一共和银行涨超25%,Silvergate涨超11%,西太平洋合众银行涨近9%,阿莱恩斯西部银行涨近6%,美国合众银行涨超3%。第一公民银行股份盘前涨近40%,硅谷银行继续停牌,报道称第一公民银行将以165亿美元的折扣价格购买720亿美元的硅谷过桥银行资产。德意志银行盘前涨近4%,债务违约的保险成本有所下降,分析师先前宣称这家德国银行的财务状况良好。诺华盘前涨超6%,公司旗下靶向抗癌药物Kisqali联合治疗早期乳腺癌3期临床试验达到主要终点。BioNtech盘前跌超4%,2022年第四季度营收42.8亿欧元,疫苗收入前景不及预期。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指全线上涨,截至发稿,德国DAX30指数涨1.26%,英国富时100涨0.93%,法国CAC40涨1.1%。原油原油期货震荡走高,截止发稿,WTI原油涨1.36%,报70.2美元/桶;布伦特原油涨1.31%,报75.97美元/桶。黄金黄金期货日内走低,截止发稿,跌1.51%,报1953.8美元/盎司。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USB":0.9,"SIVB":0.9,"VUKE.UK":0.9,"DB":0.9,"FCNCA":0.9,"WAL":0.9,"NVS":0.9,"FRC":0.9,"SIVBQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9941027610,"gmtCreate":1679890536931,"gmtModify":1679890540487,"author":{"id":"4142132894490722","authorId":"4142132894490722","name":"Meih","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4142132894490722","idStr":"4142132894490722"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心] ","listText":"[开心] ","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9941027610","repostId":"2322499931","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943766186,"gmtCreate":1679728281045,"gmtModify":1679728286347,"author":{"id":"4142132894490722","authorId":"4142132894490722","name":"Meih","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4142132894490722","idStr":"4142132894490722"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心] ","listText":"[开心] ","text":"[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943766186","repostId":"2322120896","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943792245,"gmtCreate":1679686923788,"gmtModify":1679686928399,"author":{"id":"4142132894490722","authorId":"4142132894490722","name":"Meih","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4142132894490722","idStr":"4142132894490722"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[呆住] ","listText":"[呆住] ","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943792245","repostId":"2321164551","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943796254,"gmtCreate":1679682615879,"gmtModify":1679682619897,"author":{"id":"4142132894490722","authorId":"4142132894490722","name":"Meih","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4142132894490722","idStr":"4142132894490722"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[呆住] ","listText":"[呆住] ","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943796254","repostId":"1113984769","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113984769","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1679646420,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1113984769?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-24 16:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Change|Official announcement big news, Faraday future soars! Block keeps falling after being sniped by short-selling institutions","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113984769","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月24日,美股指期货涨跌不一,道指期货涨0.06%,纳指期货涨0.05%,标普500指数期货涨0.01%。法拉第未来盘前涨超6%,公司宣布启动FF 91 Futurist开始生产倒计时,该车型将于美","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>On March 24th, U.S. stock index futures were mixed, with Dow futures rising 0.06%, Nasdaq futures rising 0.05% and S&P 500 futures rising 0.01%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b832fa3318794fd2ba6dc93283a77a08\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faraday Future rose more than 6% before the market, and the company announced the launch of the countdown to start production of the FF 91 Futurist, which will start production on March 29, 2023, US time (March 30, Beijing time) (SOP). The Company will host an SOP ceremony for the FF 91 Futurist on March 29, 2023, US time, at its FF ieFactory California facility.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Both fell more than 3% before the market. Sources said that the U.S. Department of Justice<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>And whether Credit Suisse helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions investigate two banks.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It fell more than 6% before the market, and the price of credit default swaps rose.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>It fell more than 3% premarket, and the stock fell more than 14% in the previous trading day. Hindenburg Issues Short<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>According to the company's report,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>It seriously exaggerates the number of real users and underestimates its customer acquisition cost.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">Virgin Orbit</a>It rose more than 14% before the market, and the company said it was negotiating with \"interested parties\" about investing in the company.</p><p></body></html></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Change|Official announcement big news, Faraday future soars! Block keeps falling after being sniped by short-selling institutions</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChange|Official announcement big news, Faraday future soars! Block keeps falling after being sniped by short-selling institutions\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2023-03-24 16:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>On March 24th, U.S. stock index futures were mixed, with Dow futures rising 0.06%, Nasdaq futures rising 0.05% and S&P 500 futures rising 0.01%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b832fa3318794fd2ba6dc93283a77a08\" tg-width=\"435\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Faraday Future rose more than 6% before the market, and the company announced the launch of the countdown to start production of the FF 91 Futurist, which will start production on March 29, 2023, US time (March 30, Beijing time) (SOP). The Company will host an SOP ceremony for the FF 91 Futurist on March 29, 2023, US time, at its FF ieFactory California facility.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">Credit Suisse</a>Both fell more than 3% before the market. Sources said that the U.S. Department of Justice<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">UBS</a>And whether Credit Suisse helped Russian oligarchs evade sanctions investigate two banks.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">Deutsche Bank</a>It fell more than 6% before the market, and the price of credit default swaps rose.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>It fell more than 3% premarket, and the stock fell more than 14% in the previous trading day. Hindenburg Issues Short<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>According to the company's report,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Block</a>It seriously exaggerates the number of real users and underestimates its customer acquisition cost.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VORB\">Virgin Orbit</a>It rose more than 14% before the market, and the company said it was negotiating with \"interested parties\" about investing in the company.</p><p></body></html></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4588":"碎股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","LU1861558580.USD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UBS":"瑞银",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4106":"数据处理与外包服务","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113984769","content_text":"3月24日,美股指期货涨跌不一,道指期货涨0.06%,纳指期货涨0.05%,标普500指数期货涨0.01%。法拉第未来盘前涨超6%,公司宣布启动FF 91 Futurist开始生产倒计时,该车型将于美国时间2023年3月29日(北京时间3月30日)开始生产(SOP)。公司将于美国时间2023年3月29日在其FF ieFactory California工厂举办FF 91 Futurist的SOP仪式。瑞银、瑞士信贷盘前均跌超3%。消息人士称,美国司法部就瑞银和瑞信是否帮助俄罗斯寡头逃避制裁调查两家银行。德意志银行盘前跌超6%,信用违约互换价格上涨。Block盘前跌超3%,该股上一交易日跌超14%。兴登堡发布做空Block公司的报告指,Block严重夸大了真实用户数量,低估了其获客成本。维珍轨道盘前涨超14%,该公司称正在与“有关各方”就对公司的投资进行谈判。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"UBS":0.9,"NQ2303":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"FFIE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943796184,"gmtCreate":1679682306248,"gmtModify":1679682311115,"author":{"id":"4142132894490722","authorId":"4142132894490722","name":"Meih","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4142132894490722","idStr":"4142132894490722"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[傲娇] ","listText":"[傲娇] ","text":"[傲娇]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943796184","repostId":"1159293532","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":9943403413,"gmtCreate":1679592961533,"gmtModify":1679593102812,"author":{"id":"4142132894490722","authorId":"4142132894490722","name":"Meih","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4142132894490722","idStr":"4142132894490722"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[惊讶] ","listText":"[惊讶] ","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9943403413","repostId":"1156325531","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156325531","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1679574642,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1156325531?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2023-03-23 20:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Job market remains tight as U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly drop for second straight week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156325531","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,截至3月18日当周,初请失业金人数减少1000人,至19.1万人,经济学家普遍预期为19.7万人,前值为19.2万人。美国初请失业金人数连续第二周意外减少,突显出就业市场","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Jobless claims fell 1,000 to 191,000 in the week ending March 18, compared with economists' consensus estimate of 197,000, compared with 192,000 earlier, according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday.</b>U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell for the second week in a row, underscoring how the job market remains tight and employers are reluctant to lay off jobs. Jobless claims fell 1,000 to 191,000 in the week ending March 18, compared with economists' consensus estimate of 197,000, compared with 192,000 earlier, according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday.</p><p>The number of renewed claims for unemployment benefits remained basically flat at 1.694 million for the week ending March 11. That number could provide clues as to how easy it is for unemployed people to find new jobs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e962dad1e2ec62353883f990723b88c0\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This report shows how the labor market has largely remained resilient against the backdrop of the Fed's rate hike over the past year. Jobless claims continue to hover near record lows and job creation remains strong.</p><p>As industries such as food service, leisure and hospitality struggle to attract and retain employees, nearly two jobs are open for every American who loses his job.</p><p>Still, as some companies, including Amazon and Meta, are cutting jobs, economists expect the jobless claims will eventually reflect those announcements.</p><p>Meanwhile, it is unclear how the recent bank failures will affect the job market, though tighter lending standards and higher borrowing costs are likely to dampen economic growth.</p><p>Other data showed the four-week moving average of jobless claims declined slightly to 196,250. On an unadjusted basis, jobless claims fell to 213,425, with California, Illinois and New York seeing declines and Indiana rising.</p><p></body></html></p>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Job market remains tight as U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly drop for second straight week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJob market remains tight as U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly drop for second straight week\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">智通财经网</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-03-23 20:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Jobless claims fell 1,000 to 191,000 in the week ending March 18, compared with economists' consensus estimate of 197,000, compared with 192,000 earlier, according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday.</b>U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly fell for the second week in a row, underscoring how the job market remains tight and employers are reluctant to lay off jobs. Jobless claims fell 1,000 to 191,000 in the week ending March 18, compared with economists' consensus estimate of 197,000, compared with 192,000 earlier, according to data released by the Labor Department on Thursday.</p><p>The number of renewed claims for unemployment benefits remained basically flat at 1.694 million for the week ending March 11. That number could provide clues as to how easy it is for unemployed people to find new jobs.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e962dad1e2ec62353883f990723b88c0\" tg-width=\"530\" tg-height=\"312\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>This report shows how the labor market has largely remained resilient against the backdrop of the Fed's rate hike over the past year. Jobless claims continue to hover near record lows and job creation remains strong.</p><p>As industries such as food service, leisure and hospitality struggle to attract and retain employees, nearly two jobs are open for every American who loses his job.</p><p>Still, as some companies, including Amazon and Meta, are cutting jobs, economists expect the jobless claims will eventually reflect those announcements.</p><p>Meanwhile, it is unclear how the recent bank failures will affect the job market, though tighter lending standards and higher borrowing costs are likely to dampen economic growth.</p><p>Other data showed the four-week moving average of jobless claims declined slightly to 196,250. On an unadjusted basis, jobless claims fell to 213,425, with California, Illinois and New York seeing declines and Indiana rising.</p><p></body></html></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source:<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/897521.html\">智通财经网</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627bc890436e46f74a0fe8143398a725","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/897521.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"1156325531","content_text":"美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,截至3月18日当周,初请失业金人数减少1000人,至19.1万人,经济学家普遍预期为19.7万人,前值为19.2万人。美国初请失业金人数连续第二周意外减少,突显出就业市场仍然紧张,雇主不愿裁员。美国劳工部周四公布的数据显示,截至3月18日当周,初请失业金人数减少1000人,至19.1万人,经济学家普遍预期为19.7万人,前值为19.2万人。截至3月11日当周,续请失业金人数基本持平,为169.4万人。这个数字可以为失业人员找到新工作的难易程度提供线索。这份报告展示了在过去一年美联储加息的背景下,劳动力市场在很大程度上保持了弹性。初请失业金人数继续徘徊在历史最低水平附近,就业创造依然强劲。由于食品服务、休闲和酒店等行业难以吸引和留住员工,每一个失业的美国人就有近两个职位空缺。尽管如此,随着包括亚马逊和Meta在内的一些公司纷纷裁员,经济学家预计,初请失业金人数最终将反映这些公告。与此同时,目前尚不清楚最近的银行倒闭将对就业市场产生何种影响,不过,贷款标准收紧和借贷成本上升可能会抑制经济增长。其他数据显示,初请失业金人数的四周移动平均值小幅下降至196,250人。在未经调整的基础上,初请失业金人数降至213,425人,加利福尼亚州、伊利诺伊州和纽约州的初请失业金人数有所下降,印第安纳州则有所上升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":true}