To The Moon

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2026 is already halfway through, and the first half of the year has given investors plenty to talk about. AI remained one of the most important market themes, but the story kept expanding. It was no longer just about GPUs or mega-cap tech.

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On Wednesday, $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ fell below the $4,000/oz level for the first time since November 2025. From the record high of $5,594 reached in January, gold has now fallen nearly 29%. London gold tells a similar story. In just 30 trading days, it dropped from around 4,700 to 3,980, a decline of roughly 16%. Although prices rebounded modestly today, with $GLD$ trading around $368, the overall trend has clearly turned lower.

NVIDIA remains the ultimate AI demand indicator, but its numbers are influenced by product cycles, export restrictions, networking, software, and ecosystem effects. Micron is different. Memory is closer to a pure supply-demand business. Pricing, shipments, inventories, and margins provide a much cleaner view of what is actually happening across the AI infrastructure chain. As the only U.S. company capable of producing DRAM at scale while also participating in HBM and NAND markets, Micron sits at the center of both AI and traditional data-center demand. That makes it one of the best thermometers for the industry.

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He reopened the review of the Fed’s $6.7 trillion balance sheet, setting up five working groups. One of them will study whether the balance sheet should eventually shrink closer to pre-2008 levels.

Apple sells devices and ecosystems. Meta monetizes attention. Amazon combines e-commerce and cloud. Microsoft dominates software and enterprise AI. NVIDIA sells compute. Tesla is a bet on EVs, robotics, and autonomy.

Just days ago, the Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points to 1%. A few weeks earlier Goldman Sachs was calling for S&P 8000 and raising targets across Asia. Now both Citadel Securities and PGIM, which manages roughly $1.4 trillion, are warning that high rates, sticky inflation, and stretched AI valuations could collide. Before the Iran conflict escalated earlier this year, markets were pricing multiple Fed cuts. Today, swap markets are increasingly discussing the possibility of hikes instead. Even the famously dovish BOJ is tightening.

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