To The Moon

Is 2026 the Start of a Bitcoin Institutional Supercycle? MicroStrategy (MSTR) jumped after MSCI reversed its decision to remove crypto-treasury companies from major global indices. At first glance, this looked like a technical change. In reality, it was much bigger. ✅ It removed the risk of forced institutional selling ✅ It reassured passive and index funds ✅ It kept MSTR viable as a Bitcoin proxy inside traditional portfolios At the same time, institutions are now buying 76% more Bitcoin than miners are producing — creating a clear structural supply deficit. This is not a short-term trade. This is a positioning shift. 🏛️ 1. Does MSTR Regain Institutional Appeal? Before MSCI's reversal, MSTR sat in an awkward middle ground: Too crypto for traditional mandates Too equity-like for pure Bitco

$Apple(AAPL)$   Apple has fallen seven sessions in a row, down more than 4% this week. That alone is enough to make dip-buyers itchy. What makes this move uncomfortable is the contradiction: FY2026 Q1 is expected to be one of Apple's strongest quarters iPhone 17 and iPhone Air just launched Shipments and revenue are projected to hit record highs So why is the stock selling off? This is not panic. This is a repricing debate. The Sell-Off: What the Chart Is Really Saying Seven red days rarely happen in Apple without a reason. Technically, this looks less like capitulation and more like: Position trimming after a s

The market is celebrating Tesla's 3% pop on strong China numbers. That reaction is understandable, but incomplete. Yes, the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data matters. But the real signal is not volume. It is strategic leverage. China is quietly becoming Tesla's most important AI and autonomy proving ground. And that changes the long-term valuation math. The Headline Everyone Sees: China Deliveries Are Back December 2025 numbers surprised to the upside: 97,171 wholesale units, a new monthly record +11% month-on-month Estimated 94,000 retail sales, up 13% year-on-year This confirms two things: Tesla demand in China is stabilising despite intense local competition Price cuts have already done their job — elasticity is improving But here is the key insight: volume alone does not just

For decades, memory stocks like Micron were classic cyclicals, trapped in vicious boom-bust loops fueled by fleeting PC/smartphone demand. Oversupply killed margins fast, and rallies always faded. That's changing permanently. The Structural Shift No One Saw Coming AI data centers have flipped the script on memory demand: • HBM is now the critical bottleneck for AI GPUs—essential, not optional • Only three companies can supply at scale: Micron, SK Hynix, Samsung • Hyperscalers are locking in multi-year contracts, killing spot-market volatility • Capacity additions are measured and deliberate—lessons learned from past pain This is why Micron can hit new all-time highs around $319 in early 2026 (up ~10% in a single session Jan 2) after an explosive 2025, instead of crashing like old cycl

The dawn of 2026 brought a flicker of optimism to Wall Street as U.S. stock markets kicked off the new year with modest gains, defying the sluggish first-day trends of recent years. On January 2, the first trading day of the year, the S&P 500 managed to eke out a small advance, closing up 0.19% at 6,858.47 points after touching intraday highs that suggested a more robust 0.7% rise earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, flirted with stronger momentum, surging as much as 1.5% intraday—but ultimately dipped 0.03% to end at 23,235.63. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared better, climbing 0.66% to 48,382.39, providing a steady anchor amid the volatility. This performance marks a subtle reversal from the pattern of the past three years, where the S&P 500 started

Tesla is heading into Q4 delivery results with expectations already reset lower, and that matters more than the headline number. 📊 The Hard Numbers (What the Market Is Pricing In) Q4 2025 consensus deliveries (median): ~420,400 vehicles Mean estimate: ~422,850 vehicles This implies year-on-year delivery decline for the second consecutive year Tesla shares are already ~8–10% off recent highs, suggesting expectations are no longer euphoric In other words, this is not a blowout expectations quarter—but it may not need to be. 🧠 Why a Miss May Not Break the Stock Tesla is no longer traded purely as an auto company. Investors are increasingly focused on: Autonomy and robotaxi optionality AI compute and inference scale Optimus and long-cycle robotics monetization Margin stabilization vs deli

Baidu's recent rally is not just a short-term headline move. It reflects something deeper that the market has long underestimated. While Alibaba and Tencent dominate consumer ecosystems, Baidu has quietly built the most vertically integrated AI stack in China: chips, models, cloud infrastructure, and now real-world deployment through robotaxis. That matters. The AI Loop Advantage The real winners in AI will not be those with the flashiest models, but those who can close the AI loop: Data → Model → Deployment → Feedback → Better Data Baidu is one of the few Chinese players already doing this at scale. Apollo robotaxis generate real-world driving data. That data feeds Baidu’s models. Those models improve deployment efficiency — lowering unit economics over time. This mirrors Google's early s

2025 was not a year that rewarded bravado. It rewarded awareness. Markets moved between political shocks, AI acceleration, tariff fears, and liquidity pivots — often violently, often without warning. What stood out most was not how fast prices moved, but how quickly narratives broke when price stopped confirming them. My biggest progress this year did not come from finding better entries. It came from learning to exit earlier, size smaller, and pause more often. Some trades paid me. Others reminded me that hope is not a strategy. If I had to summarise my 2025 investment journey in one sentence, it would be this: “I stopped trying to predict outcomes and focused instead on managing risk when outcomes surprised me.” That mindset shift changed how I review charts, how I hold positions, and ho

As we head into the final stretch of 2025, markets feel restless. Volatility has picked up, rallies fade faster, and every headline seems to question whether the Santa Rally still exists. But stepping back, this does not feel like panic. It feels like transition. After a strong year driven by rate cuts, AI momentum, and returning liquidity, markets are no longer pricing upside blindly. Instead, they are digesting gains, resetting positions, and waiting for clarity. That is why December has been choppy rather than directional. Several forces are colliding at once: Thin year-end liquidity amplifying moves Heavy options positioning influencing daily price action Global macro uncertainty lingering, especially around policy shifts This creates an environment where price behaviour matters more t

This expiry feels less about direction and more about structure. With such a heavy concentration of ODTEs and strikes clustered around 6,800, the pinning effect has a real chance to dominate into the close — unless a macro surprise forces dealers to re-hedge aggressively. My base case is intraday volatility with a compressed close, not a clean Santa rally yet. Liquidity looks thin, sentiment fragile, and positioning crowded. For me, this is a session to trade levels, not narratives, and size down. December has been about survival and discipline, not hero trades.