To The Moon

Something very interesting is happening inside semiconductors. Memory stocks are being crushed. Yet Nvidia, AMD and Intel have shown relative strength. At first glance, that looks contradictory. If investors are worried about AI spending, should the entire semiconductor complex not be falling together? I do not think so. The market is beginning to separate AI compute scarcity from memory scarcity. And that distinction could determine where I put my next dollar. 🔥 WHY MONEY IS ROTATING FROM MEMORY INTO COMPUTE For much of 2026, the semiconductor trade was beautifully simple: AI demand rises → chips become scarce → memory becomes scarce → pricing rises → margins explode → almost everything semiconductor goes up. That simplicity is disappearing. Memory now faces a new question from China's CX

Today feels very different from the easy momentum days. Nasdaq is down nearly 2%. Hot CPI has brought the higher-for-longer narrative roaring back. AI names are being deleveraged. Memory stocks have another headache from CXMT. And suddenly, stocks investors were desperate to buy weeks ago look frightening again. I actually like markets like this. Not because I enjoy seeing my portfolio red 😅, but because fear creates price separation. Good companies fall. Questionable companies fall. Speculative companies fall. The opportunity is figuring out which is which. My five watches today are Micron (MU), Circle (CRCL), SanDisk (SNDK), Rezolve AI (RZLV) and Beyond Meat (BYND). But I am treating each very differently. 🔥 MU: THE ONE I MOST WANT TO BUY LOWER MU around $874 is becoming very interesting

The market finally got the inflation number it did not want. September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, hotter than expected. QQQ fell 1.97%, the S&P 500 dropped 1.11%, and the damage underneath the indices was considerably worse in some of the highest-beta AI and semiconductor names. The immediate market equation is simple: Hotter CPI → fewer rate cuts → higher bond yields → higher discount rates → lower tech valuations. But I think investors make a mistake if they stop the analysis there. Inflation can compress the price investors are willing to pay for technology. It does not automatically destroy the earnings those companies are producing. That distinction determines whether this is the beginning of something much worse or the creation of another buying opportunity. WHY TECH IS TAKING

This memory correction has gone from uncomfortable to brutal. Micron has fallen from above $1,000 to roughly $874 in the screenshot. SanDisk is around $1,336. SK Hynix has been hammered, and leveraged memory products have suffered even more. The immediate culprit is China's CXMT. Its new 4F² DRAM architecture potentially allows more memory cells to fit into the same area, and CXMT says it intends to launch server-grade DDR5 products using the technology before year-end. That matters. But there is one enormous distinction investors should not overlook: CXMT has demonstrated technological progress. It has not yet demonstrated high-volume, high-yield, economically competitive production. The market is currently pricing those two things almost as if they were the same. I think that is prematur

Semiconductor stocks have just endured another uncomfortable reset. Memory names have fallen sharply. Asian chip stocks sold off again. Concerns around China's semiconductor progress have returned. Meanwhile, investors are increasingly questioning whether the enormous AI capex cycle can continue at the same pace. Now ASML reports. For me, this is one of the most important semiconductor reports of the quarter. Not because ASML tells us what happened during the last three months. It can tell us what the world's biggest chipmakers expect to need 12 to 18 months from now. That makes ASML's order book more important than the headline EPS number. The Number I Care About Most: Bookings ASML sits unusually far upstream. TSMC, Samsung, Intel, SK Hynix and Micron cannot simply decide to produce subs

The first major bank results are in, and the market reaction is surprisingly useful. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo collectively showed that high rates are still producing substantial earnings power. Net interest income remains strong, loan growth has not collapsed, and broad credit deterioration is not yet evident. Yet bank stocks sold off after the results. That tells me the market is no longer asking whether banks can make money at high rates. It is asking: How much of today's profitability is sustainable if rates stay high long enough to hurt borrowers, dealmaking and credit quality? That distinction determines what I would buy. NIM Is Strong, But Credit Is the Real Test Higher rates initially help banks because assets reprice and lending yields rise. JPMorgan gener

Memory investors are getting nervous, and understandably so. Micron is now around $1,003, more than 18% below its recent high. SanDisk has fallen toward $1,548. SK Hynix remains under pressure, while leveraged memory trades have been hit much harder. After such a powerful run, an 18% drop can feel like the market is telling us something serious. Maybe it is. But I think we need to separate three very different things: A stock correction. A conventional DRAM downturn. A breakdown of the AI memory thesis. They are not the same. Right now, I see evidence of the first two concerns. I do not yet see enough evidence for the third. Why Has MU Fallen So Much? The uncomfortable answer is that the memory story became almost too successful. Investors spent months buying the same thesis: AI demand is

Last Thursday looked ugly for semiconductors. AMD fell 3.9% to $620.68. Nvidia lost 2.94%, Broadcom dropped 4.35%, while Intel fell 5.34%. AMD then weakened again on Friday, closing around $608. Normally, when stocks fall this hard, I ask whether the fundamental story changed. This time, Lisa Su gave us an unusually useful answer. AMD is planning a substantial increase in supply, yet management still sees demand exceeding what the industry can currently produce. Advanced wafers, HBM, packaging and other parts of the AI supply chain remain constrained. That creates a fascinating divergence: The stocks are pricing fear while the supply chain is still pricing scarcity. For me, that is not automatically a sell signal. It is a signal to become much more selective. Why Did Chips Sell Off Then? T

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$   Circle closed Thursday around $84.5, up roughly 4.5%, after spending much of the past two weeks trapped in the low-to-mid $80s. That rebound matters. But I do not think CRCL has broken out yet. For next week, I see $88 as the first gate, $90-$92 as the real confirmation zone, and $100 as the level that could pull momentum traders back in quickly. My base case is that CRCL tests higher next week, but I expect volatility because the macro backdrop is fighting the company-specific story. The micro story is improving. The macro story is not nearly as friendly. That tension is exactly what makes next week interesting. First, What Changed in the Chart? CRCL traded as low as $78.88 on Wednesday, then rallied to an int

Samsung just delivered the kind of number that should have sent memory stocks flying. Q3 operating profit reached approximately 107.4 trillion won, up almost ninefold from a year earlier and another quarterly record. Instead, memory stocks sold off. Micron fell about 4.8% to $1,035.84. SanDisk dropped about 4.9% to $1,609.46. SK Hynix also fell sharply. That looks contradictory. It is not. The market has moved beyond asking whether the memory boom is real. The new question is: Are we looking at peak earnings, or simply peak acceleration? Those are very different things. Samsung Record Profit Is Not Bearish The headline number is extraordinary, but the details matter more. Samsung revenue increased sharply, operating profit reached a new record, and memory remains the major engine behind th