$S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed above the Daily FVG at 5642-5582 , but with FOMC tomorrow there is great risk we close below that sending a bearish signal.A new high is allowed if we continue to close above 5582, but once we close below that zone should act as an entry point for shorts.If that occurs, ideally that leads to retracing 50%+ of the Apr 21 rally confirming this is a bear market rally setting up for the next major wave down. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ is SO CLOSE to TOPPING before beginning the next major wave down as we are at major resistance holding confluence of 90-100% exts, 200DMA, and Weekly FVG. If we see a Daily close below 5582, that is the first warning sign we are starting to pullback.However, the cross of the 50% retracement from the Apr 21 low, currently 5400, is required to confirm this being a bear market rally.If we do confirm the bearish WXY model, we should target 4600-4400 over the next few months.A Weekly close above 5838, or a bullish 5-wave up, would invalidate this. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ came just short of the 5685-5750 target zone.As long as price remains above 5545, it has upside potential to that zone - holding confluence of the 100% extension, Weekly FVG, and 200DMA.However, the loss of 5545 would suggest the bearish WXY or bullish 3rd wave terminated to begin pulling back to 5461-5401 support.Overall, the bearish WXY model is only confirmed below the 50% retracement of the Apr 21 rally - currently 5380. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$E-mini S&P 500 - main 2506(ESmain)$$NASDAQ 100(NDX)$$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$
SPX Upside Risk to 5570-5580: AAPL, NVDA, MSFT Lagging
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ is within the Daily + Weekly FVG that is expected to act as resistance. However, there is risk for a bit more upside to 5570-5580 as stocks like $Apple(AAPL)$$NVIDIA(NVDA)$$Microsoft(MSFT)$ have yet to cross their Monthly highs like SPX + $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ .The secondary measured targets of 5685-5750 would increase in probability with a Daily close above 5572.Though if we trade below 5440, that is a strong warning the rally done w/ the loss of the 50% retrace of the 2nd leg up confirming - currently 5315. $SPDR S&P 5