To The Moon

We expect Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to hint that upcoming data supports the FOMC to begin policy normalization as soon as possible, which almost solidifies the expectation of a rate cut in September. Although we believe Powell won't rule out the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September, he might downplay concerns about the Fed being behind the curve or the U.S. economy deteriorating rapidly. Our base forecast remains a 25 basis point cut. We anticipate that by the end of the year, the Fed will have accumulated a 50 basis point rate cut. However, the risks to this view are becoming more one-sided, with more evident weakness in the labor market potentially challenging the Fed's employment mandate, necessitating further easing.🚶‍♂️ Step Back Before the Rate Cut: Following t