To The Moon

Someone didn't pay for his diet Coke...

Every day it feels more like a scam.

This ceasefire is pure fiction.

It was bound to happen. Either via automation and services, or like it is now-via AI deployment. This is just mind blowing how multi-billion corporations allowed themselves to think that they can rely on SaaS forever. But not to worry, surely there're additional very specific niches where the AI either too limited, not suitable, or just too expensive/resource-heavy to run. Just another step in the technology evolution. Once someone figures out cost effective data storage, battery technology, or fusion based energy generation, on each one of those steps we'll have similar shake outs and technology induced panic. We'd better get used to it on the cycle basis. We'll just need to figure out the each cycle duration. My guess is they'll have geometric progression.

Is Iran in the room? 

*The Brutal Reality of the European vulnerability.* The EU gathered in an extraordinary round of meetings this week to address what is essentially every policymaker's nightmare: Iran tightening control over the Strait of Hormuz. This is the narrow choke point through which a massive chunk of the international oil supply flows. The Strait of Hormuz isn't just a regional issue. It carries roughly a fifth of global oil supply, which makes it less of a "just another Middle Eastern conflict" and more of a global pressure valve.  When that artery gets squeezed, Europe doesn't just get nervous, it starts checking the thermostat and the inflation charts at the same time. After that meeting (and as it was expected) the EU (once again) finds itself in its classic position: economically vulnerab

It's not that surreal to believe that this move was an artificial market manipulation by a few big players. Just the right timing when you're in the room with the right people following a couple of big announcements and events could produce this effect. If one whale moves his assets the market can feel it. If there's a couple more like this the market could crash easily, with the ripple effect. 

It's all good and dandy but the "real money" aren't such a great thing to accumulate wealth in either. Example, where I live, properties have been a huge investment market. For the seventh year straight they possess nothing but risks, damage and insurance losses, ever increasing taxes, regulatory pressure, and expenses. And they're considered to be a better way to preserve your money than the cash itself. Now, the cash itself is devaluing so fast that in NZ and OZ local dollar have become almost a joke. They devalued by almost 30-40% in the past decade. So whether you like crypto or not, it's easy to invest into, easy to move, has a huge border free market, and enormous capitalization. Use cold wallets, store your passphrases in the super safe places, don't use dodgy smart contracts, monit

Probably when Trump is gone there will be another market shake up. And if the USA is weakened by then, all Apple's government contracts and dependency on the protectionist system could hit them hard. If China keeps its technology pace Apple could find themselves in a double whammy by 2030. It's all speculation but they're certainly not as attractive and innovative as they used to be.

Trump is a bad news, always. And there will be no liquidity with his tariffs juggling. Until he is backed up by fanatics tariffs are here to stay. He's essentially a cult leader, whether you like it or not.