Gagan Rajpal

    • Gagan RajpalGagan Rajpal
      ·01:50
      $Proshares Ultra QQQ ETF(QLD)$  *Post for Viewers: 1 Year with $QLD + What’s Next* Big update: It’s been 1 year since I started building a position in $QLD - ProShares UltraPro QQQ 2x Nasdaq ETF. *Result*: Portfolio is up big. Caught the AI + tech rally from late 2024 into 2026. QQQ made new highs and 2x leverage did its job on the way up. *So what’s my strategy now?* This is how I’m thinking about it: 1. *Respect the win* Leveraged ETFs like QLD are trend-followers, not long-term holds. When the trend is up, they compound fast. When it reverses, they drop fast. I don’t get married to the position. 2. *My current plan* - Booked partial profits already. Secured capital + some gains. - Rest of position runs with a trailing stop. If QLD drops 15-
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    • Gagan RajpalGagan Rajpal
      ·01:46
      $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$  *Winning with SMH so far:* VanEck Semiconductor ETF $SMH has been one of the strongest sector plays in 2025-2026. Driven by AI chip demand, data center growth, and continued capex from Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, Broadcom. SMH made new all-time highs this year and has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 YTD. The sector rotation back into semis after 2024 consolidation caught a lot of people offside, but the trend has stayed intact above the 200-day MA. *Prediction for SMH near-term:* With AI infrastructure spend still accelerating into 2026 and semis leading earnings revisions, SMH likely continues its uptrend. Key levels to watch: *Support*: $250-255 zone - prior breakout level, 50-day MA *Resistance*: $280-285 - psychological
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    • Gagan RajpalGagan Rajpal
      ·06-08
      *Google Stays Strong Amid Chip Carnage: New AI Safe Haven?* While chip stocks like Micron fell on order-cut fears, Google/Alphabet stayed stable. Why? Google doesn’t just sell chips - it sells AI services: Search, Cloud, YouTube ads. *Example*: If NVIDIA drops 10% due to fear, Google might drop 2% because investors trust its AI profits are already flowing in. Buffett’s $10B bet on AI software over chip hardware shows this idea: buy the “picks and shovels users”, not just the “shovel makers”. Less risky in chip cycles, but still not “safe”. No stock is.
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    • Gagan RajpalGagan Rajpal
      ·06-08
      *Micron Below $900: Buy the Dip?* Micron is down on NVIDIA order-cut fears. Classic “rumor vs reality” test. If your thesis is AI/HBM demand stays strong for 2-3 years, this dip is noise. If you think AI capex is peaking, $900 won’t be the bottom. *Example*: Have $3k cash? Don’t YOLO at $900. Split it: $1k at $900, $1k at $840, $1k at $780. If rumors fade and stock bounces to $1000, you got some. If it drops to $780, your avg is much better. Key levels: $940 resistance, $850 support, $780 major demand. Buy dips only if thesis intact + keep cash dry. Patience beats panic. Not financial advice.
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    • Gagan RajpalGagan Rajpal
      ·06-08
      *Market Crashes & Rate Hikes: When to Start Picking Up Chips* When markets crash, everyone asks the same 2 questions: 1) Is all the bad news priced in? 2) When do I buy? *1. “Price in Rate Hikes” means* Markets don’t wait for the Fed’s last hike. They fall _ahead_ of it. By the time rate hikes stop, stocks are usually already down 20-30%. The crash IS the market pricing in pain. *2. When to start picking up chips* Don’t try to catch the exact bottom. No one does. Use “chips” = small portions of cash. *Simple rule: Buy in slices, not all at once* Wait for 3 signals before you go heavy: 1. *Rates near peak*: Fed signals “maybe 1 more hike”. Fear is max. 2. *Capitulation*: Everyone’s selling, “stocks are dead” headlines. RSI <30, VIX >30. 3. *First higher low*: Market stops making n
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    • Gagan RajpalGagan Rajpal
      ·06-08
      $Proshares Ultra QQQ ETF(QLD)$  *QLD ETF: +$1000 Profit But I’m Still Buying, Not Selling 📈* Been stacking $QLD for a while now. Up >$1000 USD on paper, but selling isn’t even on my mind. If anything, I’m adding more on red days. *Why I’m not selling:* 1. *Leverage + Trend*: QLD = 2x Nasdaq-100 daily. Bull markets in tech + AI love leverage. Yes it decays, but trend > decay if you hold through cycles. 2. *SIP mindset*: I treat QLD like NVDA SIP on dips. Big down day = buy day. $1000 profit is just the start if Nasdaq runs for years. 3. *No target, only thesis*: I don’t sell based on “X% profit”. I sell only if thesis breaks - like AI bubble bursts, Fed goes 10% rates for years, Nasdaq structure changes. Not there yet. *The catch I keep i
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    • Gagan RajpalGagan Rajpal
      ·06-08
      $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ *NVDA SIP on Dips: +30% in 15 Months 📈* Been running a simple SIP on NVDA dips for last 15 months and just crossed +30% overall. Nothing fancy, just discipline. *My play: “SIP on dips”* Instead of monthly SIP, I buy when NVDA drops 5-8% on “bad news”. AI hype, China bans, valuation fears - same story every 2 months. I keep 5-6 buy levels mapped and deploy cash slowly. No leverage, no options. Just cash + patience. *Why NVDA works for this:* 1. *AI tailwind*: Data center + GPUs still the pick & shovel of AI. Every company building AI = NVDA customer. 2. *Volatility*: It always overreacts. -10% days are normal. That’s where dip-SIP shines. 3. *Long term*: Even with 50% drawdowns in 2022, anyone holding 3-5 years got paid. *Reality
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    • Gagan RajpalGagan Rajpal
      ·06-07
      *Alphabet Surges Against the Tide: Who’s Undervalued in Cloud?* ☁️ While most tech sold off, $GOOGL/Google Cloud popped. GCP growth beat expectations again and investors finally stopped treating it like “the 3rd place cloud”. So now everyone’s asking: if Alphabet is surging, who’s still undervalued in cloud? *1. $MSFT Azure* Microsoft Cloud isn’t sexy, but it prints cash. Azure + AI integration with Copilot is sticky with enterprises. Market sees it as “expensive but safe”. If GCP can rerate higher, Azure should too. Still trades cheaper than its growth vs AWS. *2. $AMZN AWS* AWS is the cash cow funding everything at Amazon. Growth slowed, but margins are expanding and AI inference workloads are coming back to AWS. Market’s punishing AMZN for retail, not cloud. At these levels you’re basic
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    • Gagan RajpalGagan Rajpal
      ·06-07
      *Lululemon Drops 11%, Americas Revenue Falls: See it Under $100?* 👟 $LULU just got hit hard after earnings. Down 11% and Americas revenue fell YoY. Now the question: is $100 the next stop, or a fat discount for long-term holders? *Bear case - Under $100:* Americas is Lulu’s core market. When same-store sales + revenue drop there, growth story cracks. Inventory issues, tougher competition from Alo, Vuori, and Nike, plus consumers cutting back on premium athleisure. If US spending keeps slowing, $100 psychological support breaks fast. Analyst downgrades usually follow big misses, adding more selling pressure. *Bull case - Buy the dip:* Lulu has survived “brand is dead” calls before. International growth is still strong, especially China. Gross margins stayed solid, and they’re buying back sh
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    • Gagan RajpalGagan Rajpal
      ·06-07
      *Bitcoin New Low, Strategy Sells: Hedge or Buy the Dip?* ₿ BTC just printed a fresh low and MicroStrategy/“Strategy” announced sales. Classic fear moment. Now everyone’s asking: hedge the downside or back up the truck? *Hedge case:* Strategy selling matters because they’ve been the biggest corporate BTC buyer. If the loudest bull starts taking chips off, it shakes confidence. Plus new lows often lead to more stop-loss selling. Hedging with cash, stables, or small shorts protects your portfolio if 40k-38k breaks. Bitcoin’s leverage + sentiment makes drops violent. No shame in defense when volatility spikes. *Buy the dip case:* Bitcoin history is littered with “new lows” that looked like the end. Then recovery. Strategy selling ≠ Bitcoin thesis broken. They sell for treasury needs, not becau
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