To The Moon

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August 31 — Last Day of Summer, First Day of Reckoning Three things I'm watching as we close out August and head into what is historically the market's worst month. 1. The Warsh overhang is real Friday's Jackson Hole speech was more hawkish than the market wanted. Warsh said inflation is "too high" and the Fed "has more work to do" — stopping just short of explicitly telegraphing a September hike. With the FOMC meeting on September 16, the probability of a hike has moved from one-in-three to above one-in-two. That repricing isn't fully done. High-multiple tech — NVDA, MRVL, BE — faces continued multiple compression if the long end o 2. The "buy the earnings beat" trade is broken this cycle MRVL beat on revenue and EPS, guided to 50% growth, and fell 10%. A week earlier MU did the same. The

QQQ's -1% wasn't panic — it was positioning. The S&P's -0.28% next to QQQ's -1% tells you this was a tech/semis trim, not a risk-off day. Makes sense given what's stacking up this week: Nvidia reports Wednesday after close, and Fed Chair Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote Friday — two catalysts that rarely land in the same week. The Warsh-Bessent dynamic is the real wildcard. Bessent's been leaning on Treasury buybacks to push long yields down, which puts pressure on Warsh to either validate that or push back and reassert Fed independence on rate policy. Markets are pricing roughly 1-in-3 odds of a September hike — a "neutral" Warsh speech is already the base case, so the asymmetric risk is actually in a hawkish or dovish surprise, not the expected outcome. Add Iran tail risk t

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Micron's $1T "reclaim" is really a rematch of the same argument the market had in May — and the CXMT wildcard cuts both ways Worth remembering the context: Micron first crossed $1T back in May off UBS's 204% price-target hike to $1,625, built on a structural thesis — long-term agreements are turning DRAM from a spot-priced commodity into something closer to contracted, growth-multiple earnings. Tuesday's move (+4.92% MU, +9.01% SK Hynix, +5.76% SanDisk, SOXL +6.89%) is that same thesis getting a fresh catalyst: management extending the tightness call past 2027, UBS following with a through-cycle profitability reset. Here's the part that actually resolves your "who sets the price" question: SemiAnalysis's own supply-side model — the one most often cited to justify CXMT as the bear case — st

JPMorgan's memory call isn't a rotation story — it's a "the correction was wrong" story The framing matters here. This wasn't JPMorgan discovering memory as some new Nvidia-adjacent trade — it's JPMorgan's Jay Kwon calling the recent 25% memory correction a mistake, made on Monday, two trading days before Tuesday's bounce. His thesis has two legs: supply-demand shortage persists for two more years, and — the more interesting part — memory demand is broadening from GPU to CPU in a way he thinks the market has underpriced. That's a different claim than "AI cycle strength is spilling over." It's "the market already knew this conceptually but hasn't modeled the actual volume impact." That's why Tuesday's move (SK Hynix +4.7%, SanDisk +2.68%, Micron +0.87%, SOXL +2.31%) reads as a reset of Q3 e

14 August — three separate stories converging into one theme: disinflation, AI infrastructure spend, and a memory sector re-rating are all running at once The macro backdrop is calm: Wednesday's CPI print landed exactly on consensus, and Asian markets have now ridden that into a fourth straight week of gains, with the Kospi (a proxy for the AI supply chain) up more than 14% on the week as Samsung and SK Hynix ran hard. That's the read-through worth watching at the open — Asia often leads where US chip and memory names go next. On the memory side, SanDisk's 15%+ Investor Day pop this week pulled the whole complex along — Micron, Western Digital, SK Hynix all caught a bid. If that momentum holds into today's session, MU and WDC are the names to watch for follow-through, not just SNDK. The ot

--- SanDisk's 13.67% pop wasn't a beat-and-raise — it was a re-rating on three years of guidance that shouldn't even be possible in memory That's the part worth sitting with. NAND has always been a boom-bust commodity business — pricing power evaporates the moment supply catches up. Nobody guides three years out in this industry because nobody's ever been able to. SanDisk just did anyway: mid-to-high-teens revenue growth through FY2028–30, ~80% adjusted gross margins, ~75% operating margins, ~50% free cash flow margins, and a commitment to return all excess cash to shareholders. Management's argument for why this time is different: demand is outrunning supply into 2028, with the NAND market seen crossing $300B this year and $500B by 2027 on AI-driven storage demand — plus a technology stor

Three earnings prints, one thesis: AI compute is getting monetized three different ways — and the market's rewarding all of them Nebius jumped 34% on $582M in revenue, up 454% y/y, with adjusted net loss narrowing 64% to $33.2M — a company scaling GPU-cloud revenue while visibly closing the gap to profitability. That's the "growth efficiency" trade. CoreWeave rose 19% despite missing revenue consensus ($2.58B vs. ~$2.61B expected) — because the backlog is the real story. $104B contracted as of June 30, and that's *before* another $25B+ signed in the first weeks of Q3, pushing total forward commitments to roughly $129B. The adjusted EPS loss of $1.03 also beat the Street's -$1.24 estimate. Investors aren't pricing this quarter — they're pricing 2028. Riot's +4.33% came off a structurally di