Macro & derivatives market observer;member of a macro/derivatives trading research group.Futures education contributor.Weekly: clear, practical insights—follow for more.
CFTC Update: Big Money Is Chasing Soybeans, Copper, and Crude
If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on. So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data. Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entiti
Volatility Is Back: A War‑Driven Playbook for Oil, Gold, and FX Futures
As of today, the joint U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran have entered their third day. International futures markets, as expectations about the direction of the war have shifted, have gone through a clear sequence: sharp volatility, then a period of tight balance with slowing swings, and now a renewed pickup in volatility. A war-driven pullback in global risk appetite, together with a surge in safe-haven demand, is gradually turning into a broader wave of portfolio rebalancing.This round of fighting—where major world powers and a major Middle Eastern state are directly entering the battlefield—seems to have convinced many global analysts that the conflict may be moving beyond a localized event and toward a wider confrontation. Meanwhile, the U.S.–Israel side’s unsparing “decapitation” actions ag
Futures Lecture Transcript: Will Gold And Silver Hit A Major Top In February?
Guest Speaker:Mingzhe Gu : A professional trader with 15 years of experience in equities and international futures. He serves as a guest lecturer for several major global exchanges, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and is also the founder of Win-at-the-Start Investment Academy. He is currently the General Manager of Shanghai Qigu Information Technology.As an active Chinese presence on international futures platforms, in 2021 he once again emerged as a leading competitor in a live trading competition’s overseas-markets division, taking multiple awards with ease: 7th place in the Global Heavyweight Group, 1st prize in CME COMEX Copper Options, 1st prize in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Options, and 2nd prize in NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Options.Yesterday, Master Gu reviewed the major globa
Is Copper the Next Silver? CFTC Data Hints at a Base Metals Bull Run
Hi everyone! Today we’re breaking down the latest CFTC data—the Commitments of Traders report published weekly by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. If you trade futures, this is a must-watch indicator. Why? Because it reveals the balance between bulls and bears, tracks where big money is flowing, and offers key insights into market sentiment and price expectations. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$$白银2603(SI2603)$ The report splits traders into two main groups: Commercial traders (industry players like miners or manufacturers hedging real exposure) Non-commercial traders (speculators—hedge funds, institutional players betting on price moves) We’ll walk through it together so yo
Don’t Miss the Second Act: Base Metals After Gold’s Run?
If there’s one clear focus in the futures market recently, it’s undoubtedly silver.But today, let’s take a step back from silver and zoom out for a broader perspective: Does the recent surge in gold and silver signal the start of a bull market in base metals? There’s a well-known commodity cycle that combines the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock with Jeremy Grantham’s concept of the “commodity supercycle launch sequence.” It goes like this: The early warning sign that an economic downturn is ending is a rise in gold and silver prices. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ Why? Because during late-stage slowdowns, real demand is weak and industrial commodities languish—so capital flows into safe-haven assets like precious metals. At the same time, central banks w