blinky

Shares insights about US stocks with colleagues during lunch.

    • blinkyblinky
      ·06-26 15:03
      $Microsoft(MSFT)$ Microsoft has a comprehensive set of businesses. It's #1 in AI as a service in the cloud. Overall in cloud, Azure has 1 billion users with 35% YoY growth. Its AI chatbot has 250 million users. It's the #2 most popular search engine with 1 billion monthly active users. It owns the #1 workplace website LinkedIn and the #1 productivity tools with Office. Its Windows OS is far and away the #1 in the world with 1.4 billion users. Xbox is the #2 most popular game console. Future P/E is 18. Price target is $570. $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$  $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ 
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    • blinkyblinky
      ·06-26 04:06
      $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ July could see a wave of buybacks and a significant influx of liquidity into stocks.
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    • blinkyblinky
      ·06-26 00:19
      $Micron Technology(MU)$ Micron just delivered a pretty clear capital allocation signal, and it aligns with Buffett's idea of returning cash when you can't deploy it better. From CFO Mike Murphy: "We intend to increase our capital return. Over time, we expect to return 100% of our excess cash to shareholders." From a trading desk perspective, this is more than just guidance; it's a shift in capital strategy tone. Higher focus on shareholder returns. Long-term target: 100% of excess cash returned. Strong confidence in cash generation through the cycle. Less emphasis on reinvestment versus payout. When a cyclical name starts talking like this, it usually changes how the market thinks about the durability of its cash flow.
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    • blinkyblinky
      ·06-26 00:06
      $Micron Technology(MU)$  Yesterday's earnings report was absolutely explosive - revenue up +346% YoY and +74% QoQ to around $41.5B, with GAAP net income margins hitting about 68%.
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    • blinkyblinky
      ·06-25
      Looking at the daily chart, $Affirm Holdings, Inc.(AFRM)$  is attempting to break out. If EMA 4 holds at 74.26, watch for a possible move back to 85 to test resistance. The price action has been filling back towards the 85 level. Once this fill is complete, the rally will either stall or continue higher, with 85 being the key level to hold and turn into support. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$  $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ 
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    • blinkyblinky
      ·06-25
      $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ What if the market has already priced in the bad PCE data? A couple more possible rate hikes. That would make the bears pretty mad and poor. Micron's earnings tomorrow give a solid reason to consider buying the dip.
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    • blinkyblinky
      ·06-23
      Reminder - $Micron Technology(MU)$  earnings are this Wednesday, 6/24. With the stock teasing new highs, this could be a make-or-break moment. I'll be watching. Options activity has been nuts.
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    • blinkyblinky
      ·06-23
      $Micron Technology(MU)$ Seeing bullish flow showing up again today, and it's not the first time recently. Micron has always been one of those names where sentiment can shift quickly based on AI memory and DRAM cycle expectations. So when you see repeated bullish flow, it tends to get people's attention. That said, I always view flow the same way: it's interesting, but it's not the whole picture. What matters is whether it actually shows up in follow-through price action, not just prints hitting the tape. Still, when you keep seeing consistent bullish activity in a semi name like MU, it usually means someone is positioning ahead of something—whether that's cycle strength, pricing power, or just broader AI hardware demand. Worth keeping on the ra
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    • blinkyblinky
      ·06-22
      $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ SPY.Gold may have bottomed, or it could be very close to a bottom. It appears to be at or near a cyclical low, suggesting downside risk might be limited from current levels.
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    • blinkyblinky
      ·06-21
      $Micron Technology(MU)$ I've been holding since $80 a share and I think we might be entering the most exciting phase of this MU run. Trailing EPS is expected to go from $21.79 to over $40 this quarter. The next three quarters could bring it to $60, $80, and $100. With significant growth ahead in 2027 and beyond, I expect MU to command a high trailing P/E of 45+ (it's currently 53.5). This could result in MU moving $900 higher each quarter, potentially reaching $4730 a year from now. The main thing I'm looking for in the upcoming earnings is details on long-term contracts with major customers. If they lock in pricing for several years, ensuring 60-80% margins, then it's a straightforward hold with relatively stable returns.
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