$Microsoft(MSFT)$ OCT30 545C still looks actionable. Zone: $529.79 to $537.26 Invalidation: close under $524.43 Objectives: $553.72, then $600 The math: up 3.8% to the first objective and 12.5% to the second, against 1.7% risk on the invalidation, better than 7 to 1 to the second. This is a swing into earnings on October 28, and the picture is simple. Microsoft closed at 533.52 after buyers defended the October 16 low at 524.43, which is the one level that matters most right now. While that low holds, the road back to the 52 week high at 553.72 stays open, and past it sits the round 600 level where most analyst targets cluster. Earnings can move this name fast, so treat the invalidation like a guardrail and let
How is this negative for $Microsoft(MSFT)$ 's bottom line? It gives them optionality to back out of a contract because the neocloud firm isn't delivering. When the market opens Monday morning, the probability of $Microsoft(MSFT)$ overspending on AI buildout is reduced at the margin. The upside could be capped lower and the downside could be capped higher. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ gets to make that decision with a forecast that's updated with more information than it had when it signed the contract. This is also happening going into rate hikes.
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ I'm bullish on Microsoft. Azure grew a massive 43% last quarter, and Microsoft's own guidance for Q1 points to constant-currency cloud growth around 45%. Meeting or exceeding that would show enterprise AI demand isn't slowing. Microsoft also closed out FY Q4 with an RPO of $678 billion. Watching that contracted backlog keep swelling is reassuring for investors, since it locks in future revenue.
$Alphabet(GOOGL)$ It is wild what is happening with GOOGL. They earn more than double per share compared to AAPL, yet AAPL is worth nearly $1T more. Go figure.