The AI boom is real. I work in the semiconductor industry as a contractor for the two biggest OEM manufacturers. The demand is real. It will triple over the next 3 years. This is public information. Recently, the CEO of $Lumentum(LITE)$ confirmed that his company's capacity is sold out until the end of 2028. A lot of data centers are being built to support AI. $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ is at the forefront of this buildup. These data centers are crucial for keeping an edge in AI infrastructure. For $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ , the debt is very manageable. It has more than $100B in contracts and counting.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ In small, the reversal looks notable so far, up $66 from the morning lows. Going from red to green next, and a squeeze could potentially trigger.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ AI trading isn't going to change the long-term picture for photonics and computing. No reason to be concerned here. This still looks like a hidden gem.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ has been moving in a similar way on volatility, and the same AI supply-demand imbalance seems to be behind it. LITE is about half the size of SNDK, so I'd expect even larger price swings once it starts getting market attention.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ Small calls entry. This one moves fast and is very volatile. It has dropped more than $200 over the past few trading days, so it may be time for a reversal. When it gets directional, it can move over $100 points at a time.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ Did the homework on LCPN and picked up the cheap shares. 52-week high is 12.35, company has 23 million cash on hand and more catalysts ahead. Holding my position.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ The stock bounces like a ball. Once you spot the pattern, the next move gets fairly predictable. I think there's a decent chance we see $1100 again within the next week or two. I'm holding through that move.
$Lumentum(LITE)$ Lumentum is leading an AI optics selloff, just days after its CEO said its AI optical components are sold out through early 2029. This week it's at the OCP Global Summit demoing PCIe-over-optics with Astera Labs and Corning. The selling looks like positioning after a massive run. The demand picture hasn't changed. $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ $Corning(GLW)$
$Lumentum(LITE)$ Lumentum's optical component orders are booked through early 2029, with the CEO saying demand has exceeded available supply. The components are completely sold out through early 2029, and customers are already starting to lock in orders for 2030. They've scaled up capacity at the Sagamihara facility in Japan twelvefold over the past two years, and plan to invest at least $350 million there plus at a neighboring site, with $75 million deployed so far. Capacity at the Caswell, England plant has also been expanded. The company is looking at possibly buying a facility in Japan and could seek subsidies to support further expansion. An acquisition over the next year to broaden the product range may also be on the table.