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爱丽丝郑
2021-06-18

The day after the Fed is expected to earlier the rate hike, long-term U.S. bond yields plummeted. Why?

周四，30年期美债收益率大幅下行16个基点，创2月来最大盘中跌幅和四个月最低，五年/30年期收益率曲线创去年11月来最平。一方面，美联储加息时间提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使收益率曲线走平，同时，这也是QE即将终结的号角。市场对“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维亟需转变。

The day after the Fed is expected to earlier the rate hike, long-term U.S. bond yields plummeted. Why?

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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":168515476,"tweetId":"168515476","gmtCreate":1623978586195,"gmtModify":1703825240006,"author":{"id":3582722070972100,"idStr":"3582722070972100","authorId":3582722070972100,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":4,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>Like &amp; comment, thank you&nbsp;</body></html>","text":"Like & comment, thank you","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168515476","repostId":2144164740,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144164740","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623978494,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144164740?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"The day after the Fed is expected to earlier the rate hike, long-term U.S. bond yields plummeted. Why?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144164740","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周四，30年期美债收益率大幅下行16个基点，创2月来最大盘中跌幅和四个月最低，五年/30年期收益率曲线创去年11月来最平。一方面，美联储加息时间提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使收益率曲线走平，同时，这也是QE即将终结的号角。市场对“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维亟需转变。","content":"On Thursday, June 17, one day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish and the \"dot plot\" hinted that it would advance to the 2023 rate hike, the yield of long-term U.S. Treasury Bond plummeted, giving up all yesterday's gains, and the yield curve became even more flat.The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned below the 1.50% mark, with the deepest decline of 9.7 basis points in the day, and the daily low was forced to 1.47%. Yesterday, it soared from less than 1.50% to 1.569%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 16 basis points during the day, the largest intraday decline since February, reaching a daily low of 2.049%, the lowest in four months since mid-February。 Yesterday's increase was relatively small, rising from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, so today's decline is even more striking.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The five-year and 30-year U.S. bond yield curves have flattened, and the yield spread between medium-term and long-term U.S. bonds has plummeted to 118 basis points, the flattest curve since November last year. After yesterday's FOMC meeting, the five-year U.S. bond yield soared by more than 11 basis points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As U.S. bond yields fell, U.S. bank stocks collectively fell sharply. Banking ETFs fell more than 4% at midday, and the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index fell 4.5%, the largest intraday drop in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 3%.At the same time, ICE the US Dollar Index once broke through the 92 integer digit, setting a two-month high since April 13. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5, and COME August gold futures closed down nearly 4.7%, at least the largest one-day drop of the main contract since November last year, closing at less than $1,775, which was also the lowest since April 30. The lowest closing.<h2>The Fed's rate hike timetable curbs long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, prompting the U.S. bond yield curve to flatten</h2>Why is there a dramatic reversal in long-term U.S. bond yields while the yield curve is accelerating its collapse?According to Bloomberg data, the flattening of the composite U.S. bond yield curve in the past two days is the highest level since the liquidity crisis in March last year.Some analysts believe that the latest dot plot of the Federal Reserve expects two rate hike before the end of 2023. This shift has pushed up shorter-term market interest rates and restricted long-term inflation expectations, leading to a flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve. Money market traders even brought forward their 25 basis point pricing expectations for the Fed's rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Fed's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given a green light to people who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as an investment. Market participants have begun to buy long-term U.S. bonds to hedge their investments. Other riskier positions in the portfolio.Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that the reflation trade has suffered a \"major setback\" following the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve at its June policy meeting, and recommends exiting bets on the five-year/30-year U.S. bond A deal in which the yield curve steepens. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, holds a similar view.Financial media CNBC believes that the prices of base metals such as copper continue to fall on a weekly basis, and bond traders are paying attention to the sharp sell-off of commodities. Bond yields typically move in tandem with commodities because they are both seen as barometers of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States increased to 412,000 last week, returning to above the 400,000 mark, higher than market expectations of 360,000. Safe-haven demand has also caused some investors to return to the U.S. bond market, thus depressing bond yields.Financial blog Zerohedge quoted analysis from global economic trend website Mish Talk as saying that the U.S. bond yield curve cannot be called \"absolutely flat\" at present, but the trend of gradual flattening is very important. The sharp drop in the 30-year long-term U.S. bond yield itself is also an important signal,This means that the inflation panic is basically in the \"rearview mirror\", that is, it is not the main point that the market is worried about and affects trading actions.<h2>The high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve may be a clarion call for the end of QE quantitative easing bond buying. Investors should buy bonds</h2>Wall Street News also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, which was called \"the most important in five years\", marked that monetary policy will gradually enter the second half. In the future, the focus of market differences may lie in the \"slowness\" and \"urgency\" of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will be normalized or not. The inertia thinking of \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed:Judging from the results, we mentioned in Tuesday's preview that the four major \"surprises\" actually came to fruition: the release of Taper, the increase in inflation expectations, the movement of rate hike time, and the increase in IOER/ON RRP interest rates, which means that the Federal Reserve has shown that it has passed Expected guidance tools, releasing a posture of phased exit signals.Many people believe that the high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve is a warning that QE quantitative easing bond buying is coming to an end。Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of U.S. bond yields in different periods before, during and after the Fed's previous QEs. He found that the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE, as shown in the circle below. When the Federal Reserve reversed QE bond buying through quantitative tightening (QT), U.S. bond yields tend to fall sharply.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Similarly, the two-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve moves similarly. During QE quantitative easing, short-term yields are relatively stable and long-term yields rise, that is, the yield curve steepens, but after the end of QE, the yield curve will flatten quickly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The advice he gave was:\"From the beginning of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year U.S. bond yield tends to rise by about 1%. U.S. bond yields will peak before the end of QE, when the Fed will get closer and closer to taper or stop QE purchases. At present, U.S. bond yields are approaching their cyclical highs, and if the Fed approaches tapering bond purchases, U.S. bond yields may peak. Given the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Fed is actually about to taper, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will drop by 1% or more in the next six months to one year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds are underperforming during QE and will be strong after QE.Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.As our confidence in the Fed reducing the pace of quantitative easing grows, both our aggregate bond allocation and bond duration should increase. \" Since the FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will officially announce its taper plan to reduce asset purchases at its September meeting. The actual reduction in bond purchases will begin in November, faster than they previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. And taper is also a precursor to actual rate hike.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Ming Ming once said that a flattened yield curve may have an impact on consumption levels. Therefore, a flattened yield curve usually indicates that the market believes that economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future:The increase of short-term yield level may indirectly affect some mortgage interest rates. If short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates, some consumer mortgage interest rates will also rise, thus affecting consumers' consumption demand; In addition, the increase of short-term Treasury Bond interest rate may increase some financing costs, and the disposable income of consumers will be relatively reduced, which may have a negative impact on consumer demand. The flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed-income investors and real estate investors.","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The day after the Fed is expected to earlier the rate hike, long-term U.S. bond yields plummeted. 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Why?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n华尔街见闻2021-06-18 09:08\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nOn Thursday, June 17, one day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish and the \"dot plot\" hinted that it would advance to the 2023 rate hike, the yield of long-term U.S. Treasury Bond plummeted, giving up all yesterday's gains, and the yield curve became even more flat.The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned below the 1.50% mark, with the deepest decline of 9.7 basis points in the day, and the daily low was forced to 1.47%. Yesterday, it soared from less than 1.50% to 1.569%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as much as 16 basis points during the day, the largest intraday decline since February, reaching a daily low of 2.049%, the lowest in four months since mid-February。 Yesterday's increase was relatively small, rising from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, so today's decline is even more striking.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The five-year and 30-year U.S. bond yield curves have flattened, and the yield spread between medium-term and long-term U.S. bonds has plummeted to 118 basis points, the flattest curve since November last year. After yesterday's FOMC meeting, the five-year U.S. bond yield soared by more than 11 basis points.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As U.S. bond yields fell, U.S. bank stocks collectively fell sharply. Banking ETFs fell more than 4% at midday, and the Philadelphia KBW Bank Index fell 4.5%, the largest intraday drop in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 3%.At the same time, ICE the US Dollar Index once broke through the 92 integer digit, setting a two-month high since April 13. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5, and COME August gold futures closed down nearly 4.7%, at least the largest one-day drop of the main contract since November last year, closing at less than $1,775, which was also the lowest since April 30. The lowest closing.<h2>The Fed's rate hike timetable curbs long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, prompting the U.S. bond yield curve to flatten</h2>Why is there a dramatic reversal in long-term U.S. bond yields while the yield curve is accelerating its collapse?According to Bloomberg data, the flattening of the composite U.S. bond yield curve in the past two days is the highest level since the liquidity crisis in March last year.Some analysts believe that the latest dot plot of the Federal Reserve expects two rate hike before the end of 2023. This shift has pushed up shorter-term market interest rates and restricted long-term inflation expectations, leading to a flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve. Money market traders even brought forward their 25 basis point pricing expectations for the Fed's rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Fed's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given a green light to people who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as an investment. Market participants have begun to buy long-term U.S. bonds to hedge their investments. Other riskier positions in the portfolio.Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that the reflation trade has suffered a \"major setback\" following the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve at its June policy meeting, and recommends exiting bets on the five-year/30-year U.S. bond A deal in which the yield curve steepens. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, holds a similar view.Financial media CNBC believes that the prices of base metals such as copper continue to fall on a weekly basis, and bond traders are paying attention to the sharp sell-off of commodities. Bond yields typically move in tandem with commodities because they are both seen as barometers of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that the number of first-time claims for unemployment benefits in the United States increased to 412,000 last week, returning to above the 400,000 mark, higher than market expectations of 360,000. Safe-haven demand has also caused some investors to return to the U.S. bond market, thus depressing bond yields.Financial blog Zerohedge quoted analysis from global economic trend website Mish Talk as saying that the U.S. bond yield curve cannot be called \"absolutely flat\" at present, but the trend of gradual flattening is very important. The sharp drop in the 30-year long-term U.S. bond yield itself is also an important signal,This means that the inflation panic is basically in the \"rearview mirror\", that is, it is not the main point that the market is worried about and affects trading actions.<h2>The high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve may be a clarion call for the end of QE quantitative easing bond buying. Investors should buy bonds</h2>Wall Street News also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, which was called \"the most important in five years\", marked that monetary policy will gradually enter the second half. In the future, the focus of market differences may lie in the \"slowness\" and \"urgency\" of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will be normalized or not. The inertia thinking of \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed:Judging from the results, we mentioned in Tuesday's preview that the four major \"surprises\" actually came to fruition: the release of Taper, the increase in inflation expectations, the movement of rate hike time, and the increase in IOER/ON RRP interest rates, which means that the Federal Reserve has shown that it has passed Expected guidance tools, releasing a posture of phased exit signals.Many people believe that the high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve is a warning that QE quantitative easing bond buying is coming to an end。Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of U.S. bond yields in different periods before, during and after the Fed's previous QEs. He found that the 10-year U.S. bond yield rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE, as shown in the circle below. When the Federal Reserve reversed QE bond buying through quantitative tightening (QT), U.S. bond yields tend to fall sharply.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Similarly, the two-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve moves similarly. During QE quantitative easing, short-term yields are relatively stable and long-term yields rise, that is, the yield curve steepens, but after the end of QE, the yield curve will flatten quickly.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The advice he gave was:\"From the beginning of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year U.S. bond yield tends to rise by about 1%. U.S. bond yields will peak before the end of QE, when the Fed will get closer and closer to taper or stop QE purchases. At present, U.S. bond yields are approaching their cyclical highs, and if the Fed approaches tapering bond purchases, U.S. bond yields may peak. Given the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Fed is actually about to taper, the 10-year U.S. bond yield will drop by 1% or more in the next six months to one year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds are underperforming during QE and will be strong after QE.Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.As our confidence in the Fed reducing the pace of quantitative easing grows, both our aggregate bond allocation and bond duration should increase. \" Since the FOMC unexpectedly turned hawkish yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will officially announce its taper plan to reduce asset purchases at its September meeting. The actual reduction in bond purchases will begin in November, faster than they previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. And taper is also a precursor to actual rate hike.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>Ming Ming once said that a flattened yield curve may have an impact on consumption levels. Therefore, a flattened yield curve usually indicates that the market believes that economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future:The increase of short-term yield level may indirectly affect some mortgage interest rates. If short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates, some consumer mortgage interest rates will also rise, thus affecting consumers' consumption demand; In addition, the increase of short-term Treasury Bond interest rate may increase some financing costs, and the disposable income of consumers will be relatively reduced, which may have a negative impact on consumer demand. The flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed-income investors and real estate investors.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223\">华尔街见闻</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144164740","content_text":"6月17日周四，在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后，美国长期国债收益率大跌，回吐昨日全部涨幅，收益率曲线更加趋平。\n10年期基准美国国债收益率重回1.50%关口下方，日内最深下行9.7个基点，日低下逼1.47%，昨日曾从不足1.50%飙升至1.569%。\n\n30年期美债收益率日内最深下行16个基点，创2月以来最大盘中跌幅，日低至2.049%，刷新2月中旬来的四个月最低。昨日涨幅相对不大，曾从2.18%升至近2.21%，因此今日跌势更加醒目。\n\n五年期与30年期美债收益率曲线更为趋平，中期与长期美债典型代表的收益率息差骤降至118个基点，曲线为去年11月以来最平状态。昨日FOMC会后，五年期美债收益率曾暴涨超11个基点。\n\n伴随美债收益率下跌，美股银行股集体大跌，午盘时银行业ETF跌超4%，费城KBW银行指数下跌4.5%，创七个月最大盘中跌幅。富国银行、花旗、美国银行、摩根士丹利均跌超4%，高盛和摩根大通跌3%。\n同时，ICE美元指数一度上破92整数位，刷新4月13日以来的两个月高位。现货黄金自5月5日以来首次跌破1770美元，COME 8月期金收跌近4.7%，至少创去年11月以来主力合约最大单日跌幅，收报不足1775美元，也创4月30日以来收盘最低。\n美联储加息时间表提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使美债收益率曲线趋平\n为何长期美债收益率出现戏剧性逆转，同时收益率曲线在加速坍塌？据彭博社数据，过去两天的综合美债收益率曲线趋平幅度，为去年3月流动性危机以来的最高水平。\n有分析认为，美联储最新点阵图预期2023年底之前将加息两次，这一转变推高了较短期限的市场利率，并制约了长期通胀预期，导致美债收益率曲线趋平。货币市场交易员们甚至把对美联储加息25个基点的定价预期提前到了明年第四季度。\nMUFG Securities Americas 美国宏观策略主管George Goncalves认为，美联储“作为通胀斗士的可信度”，给此前担心购买长久期国债作为投资的人们大开绿灯，市场参与者开始购入长期美债，用来对冲投资组合中其他风险更高的头寸。\n道明证券的全球利率策略主管Priya Misra也认为，继美联储在6月政策会议上发出鹰派信号之后，再通胀交易（reflation trade）遭受了“重大挫折”，建议退出押注五年/30年期美债收益率曲线陡峭化的交易。高盛集团首席利率策略师Praveen Korapaty也持类似观点。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，铜等基础金属价格继续周度下跌，债券交易员正在关注大宗商品的大幅抛售。债券收益率通常与大宗商品同步变动，因为它们都被视为全球经济增长的晴雨表。今日最新数据显示，上周美国首申失业金人数增至41.2万，重回40万关口上方，高于市场预期的36万人，避险需求也导致部分投资者回流美债市场，进而压低债券收益率。\n金融博客Zerohedge援引全球经济趋势网站Mish Talk的分析称，美债收益率曲线目前不能称为“绝对平坦”，但日渐趋平的趋势很重要，30年期长期美债收益率大跌本身也是重要信号，这代表通胀恐慌已经基本处于“后视镜”中，即不是市场主要担心并影响交易举动的要点了。\n美债收益率曲线高调趋平或是QE量宽买债即将终结的号角，投资者应买债\n华尔街见闻也分析指出，昨日被称为“五年来最重要”的FOMC会议标志着货币政策将逐渐走入下半场，以后市场分歧的焦点或在于货币政策正常化的“缓”与“急”，而不是会否正常化，“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维需要作出转变：\n\n 从结果来看，我们在周二前瞻中提到四大“惊喜”居然系数落地：放风Taper，通胀预期上调，加息时点前移，IOER /ON RRP利率上调，这意味着美联储已表现出通过预期引导工具，释放阶段性退出信号的姿态。\n\n不少人认为，美债收益率曲线高调趋平发出的正是QE量宽买债即将终结的警示音。\n分析师Michael Lebowtiz对比了美债收益率在美联储历次QE前、中、后不同时期的表现。他发现，10年期美债收益率在每个QE期间上升、并在QE结束时下降，如下图画圈处所示，当美联储通过量化紧缩 （QT）来逆转QE买债时，美债收益率往往急剧下降。\n\n同样，两年/10年期美债收益率曲线的走势类似。QE量宽期间，短期收益率相对稳定且长期收益率上升，即收益率曲线陡峭化，但在QE结束后，收益率曲线会迅速变平。\n\n他给出的建议是：\n\n “从QE开始到QE期间的峰值收益率水平处，10年期美债收益率往往会上涨约1%。美债收益率会在QE结束前达到峰值，这时美联储也会越来越接近缩减购债（taper）或停止QE购买。目前，美债收益率正接近其周期高点，如果美联储接近缩减购债，美债收益率可能会见顶。鉴于此前的QE末期缩减购债经验，如果美联储实际上即将taper，10年期美债收益率会在未来6个月到一年内下降1%甚至更多。股市投资者可能不知道的是，QE期间债券表现不佳，QE结束后会表现强劲。\n 债券投资者应该在美联储买入时卖出、在美联储卖出时买入。随着我们对美联储降低量化宽松步伐的信心增强，我们的债券配置总量和债券久期都应增加。”\n\n自昨日FOMC意外转鹰后，巴克莱银行的经济学家认为，美联储将在9月会议上正式宣布缩减资产购买的taper计划，实际削减买债从11月开始执行，快于他们此前预期的今年11月宣布和明年1月开始执行。而taper也是实际加息的前兆。\n中信证券明明曾称，趋平的收益率曲线可能会对消费水平有所影响，因此，收益率曲线趋平通常表明市场认为经济增长不可持续，将在未来下降：\n\n 短期收益率水平的上升可能会通过间接影响某些抵押贷款利率，如果短期利率高于长期利率，一些消费抵押贷款利率也会随之升高，进而影响消费者的消费需求；此外，短期国债利率的升高可能会提升部分融资成本，消费者的可支配收入相对减少，对消费需求可能产生负面影响。趋平的收益率曲线对固定收益投资者和房地产投资者也有负面影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1920,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}