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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2024-06-23
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-06-25
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-06-23
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Bitmain Suspends Spot Mining Machine Sales as Regulation Shocks Bitcoin Mining Machine Market
加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。
Bitmain Suspends Spot Mining Machine Sales as Regulation Shocks Bitcoin Mining Machine Market
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-06-22
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
·
2021-06-22
Like n comment, thank you so much
Value Stocks Return! Buffett, Soros are bullish on this trend at the same time
随着价值股也成为趋势股，投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。
Value Stocks Return! Buffett, Soros are bullish on this trend at the same time
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
·
2021-06-22
Like n comment, thank you very much
The daily premium fresh pricing range is 13-16 USD/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight
北京时间6月22日晚间消息，每日优鲜更新F-1招股书，计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票（ADS），定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。 现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码，购买至
The daily premium fresh pricing range is 13-16 USD/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
·
2021-06-18
Like & comment, thank you
The Fed expects the early rate hike the next day, and the yield of long-term U.S. bonds plummets. Why?
周四，30年期美债收益率大幅下行16个基点，创2月来最大盘中跌幅和四个月最低，五年/30年期收益率曲线创去年11月来最平。一方面，美联储加息时间提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使收益率曲线走平，同时，这也是QE即将终结的号角。市场对“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维亟需转变。
The Fed expects the early rate hike the next day, and the yield of long-term U.S. bonds plummets. Why?
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-06-14
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The Fed is going to turn its face? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Are Solemn
本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。 美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。 著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策
The Fed is going to turn its face? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Are Solemn
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-05-20
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爱丽丝郑
爱丽丝郑
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2021-05-19
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On June 23rd, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of a large number of second-hand machines into the market, it temporarily suspended the sale of spot machines in order to alleviate the pressure of customers' shipments. Bitmain insiders told interface news: \"This is the general direction, but the specific sales details have not been notified yet.\" At the same time, it is reported that Bitmain has announced a full overseas transfer, especially some middle and senior employees are moving overseas. Bitmain said it was not convenient to disclose it to the outside world for the time being. Bitmain is currently one of the largest Bitcoin mining machine manufacturers in the world...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">Web link</a></div></p>","source":"jm","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitmain Suspends Spot Mining Machine Sales as Regulation Shocks Bitcoin Mining Machine Market</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitmain Suspends Spot Mining Machine Sales as Regulation Shocks Bitcoin Mining Machine Market\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">界面新闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-23 16:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div>Reporter/Si Linwei The upstream supply of cryptocurrency mining is starting to be affected by regulation. On June 23rd, Bitmain told cryptocurrency miners that due to the recent influx of a large number of second-hand machines into the market, it temporarily suspended the sale of spot machines in order to alleviate the pressure of customers' shipments. Bitmain insiders told interface news: \"This is the general direction, but the specific sales details have not been notified yet.\" At the same time, it is reported that Bitmain has announced a full overseas transfer, especially some middle and senior employees are moving overseas. Bitmain said it was not convenient to disclose it to the outside world for the time being. Bitmain is currently one of the largest Bitcoin mining machine manufacturers in the world...</p><p><a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">Web link</a></div></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html\">界面新闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27dbfbd85956a77609a6a352c6752bcc","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://www.jiemian.com/article/6271354.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129009844","content_text":"记者／司林威\n加密货币矿业的上游供应开始受到监管影响。\n6月23日，比特大陆对加密货币矿工表示，由于近期大量二手机器涌入市场，为缓解客户出货压力，暂时停售现货机器。\n比特大陆内部人士向界面新闻表示：“大方向是这样，但具体销售细节暂未接到通知。”\n同时，有消息称比特大陆已宣布全面向海外转移，特别是部分中高层员工正向海外转移。比特大陆方表示暂不方便对外透露。\n比特大陆是目前全球最大的比特币矿机厂商之一，近年来在AI领域也有大量布局。在6月19日于成都举行的行业交流会上，比特大陆发布了其新品，但并非为比特币专业矿机。会上比特大陆还打出“抱团取暖，拒绝恶性竞争”的标语。现场参会的矿工透露，海外挖矿业务成了本次交流会的主要议题。\n为何比特大陆要暂停现货矿机销售？本质还是受到国内监管冲击。\n随着内蒙古、新疆、四川、青海、云南等地陆续开始叫停比特币挖矿和清退各类矿场，除一部分矿机转移至中亚和海外，大量被清退的矿机被迫关机后流入二手矿机市场，直接冲击了原有的矿机市场。\n监管政策落地后，界面新闻记者获悉多位矿工已开始售卖矿机。有矿业公司已开始清退客户矿机，并开始清仓甩卖相关矿机。\n以矿机市场销售人员近几日的报价为例，比特大陆旗下蚂蚁S19系列某款矿机6月15日报价为4万元，6月23日报价已降至3万元关口。且据矿工透露，目前市场价格处于恐慌中的低点，有价无市，愿意接手的人并不多。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4174,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129240951,"gmtCreate":1624375058273,"gmtModify":1703834928936,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129240951","repostId":"1191907311","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129255294,"gmtCreate":1624374952718,"gmtModify":1703834925157,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment, thank you so much ","listText":"Like n comment, thank you so much ","text":"Like n comment, thank you so much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129255294","repostId":"1196342132","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196342132","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美国最大的独立第三方研究机构之一，成立20年，专为美股、港股、A股个人投资者提供前沿内容。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"弹道财经","id":"1031387410","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c"},"pubTimestamp":1624362521,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1196342132?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 19:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Value Stocks Return! Buffett, Soros are bullish on this trend at the same time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196342132","media":"弹道财经","summary":"随着价值股也成为趋势股，投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。","content":"<p>By David Eifrig, Ph.D.</p><p>Abstract: Whether you recognize Buffett or Soros, you can now grasp a kind of trading opportunity, because it actually conforms to the philosophy of these two big bosses at the same time!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two big bosses have the same goal through different routes?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views in this article are based on open market information and historical data. They are not used as direct investment suggestions, but only for communication. Welcome to leave messages to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p>In many cases, investors entering the market have to face a multiple-choice question, whether to stand with Buffett or Soros? Behind them are two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The successes of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros are legendary. Whether Soros made $1 billion during the period of \"taking down the Bank of England\" or Buffett's 1,550% return from Coca-Cola stock, they have achieved remarkable records, which are difficult for many people to replicate.</p><p>But if investors are interested in imitating the investment routines of these two legends, they can usually only choose one big boss to follow. Because these two investment bosses have diametrically opposite views on volatility and risk. For the most part, investors either side with Buffett or with Soros.</p><p><b>Known for his value investing, Buffett is cautiously focused on firms with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor who is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven that his strategy works — his ROI is enough to dump most speculators a few blocks.</p><p>Buffett famously said, \"Only when the tide recedes will you know who is swimming naked.\"</p><p>In other words, it is the bull market that provides cover for excessively risky bets. But if investors have been taking risks without doing their research and being adequately prepared for a decline, investors will bear the brunt of the bubble when it bursts.</p><p><b>In contrast to Mr Buffett, Mr Soros likes to jump into strong market trends</b>As he said in 2009, \"When I see a bubble forming, I buy it quickly and add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a red flag, but an opportunity. After markets break away from fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented rate, which is simply unimaginable with earnings growth fixed.</p><p>At times like this,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to put aside fundamentals and invest with investor sentiment.</b></p><p>Thus, what can be seen from these two most successful investors of all time is diametrically opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, Beware, you have to wear your swimming trunks.</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investment.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as seeing that the trend is taking shape and funds are flowing, are they going to follow the trend and ride the wind and waves? Or should we consider \"mean\" regressions and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no unique correct answer to this multiple-choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including struggling retailer GameStop (symbol: GME), have completely divorced from reality.</p><p>Maybe Soros will say that the market is too crazy and the time has come to make a lot of money, so he will find the relatively perfect trading opportunity of GameStop to exacerbate the madness of this stock.</p><p>Buffett, on the contrary, may say that GameStop's price is ridiculous and unsustainable, and he would never get his hands on this stock.</p><p>As shown in the chart below, Soros's trading approach is mostly correct as of now. However, we are also sure that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But those crazy stocks aside,<b>There is a factor emerging in the market that gives investors the opportunity to side with Soros and Buffett at the same time. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and two big bosses have the same goal by different paths?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite type of investment, simply referring to stocks with lower valuations, which usually can<b>Use a lower price-to-book ratio as a judgment indicator.</b>Value investors typically explore stable investment opportunities in these solid but undervalued stocks.</p><p>Trend stocks, on the other hand, mainly refer to stocks whose prices are rising,<b>Generally speaking, they tend to produce positive high yields for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>The vast majority of the time, value investors and trend investors view markets in opposite ways. Specifically:</p><p>The value faction believes that if the price of a stock goes up, then its price becomes no longer cheap.</p><p>Trenders, on the other hand, believe that if a stock is trading cheaply, its price usually continues to move lower.</p><p>And as the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks,<b>Value stocks also have the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The opportunity could be enormous.</p><p>Many investors and institutions on Wall Street identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (side Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow the trend (side Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic-based investors will exclusively buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>But with value stocks also becoming trend stocks, investor interest in low-valued, strong-trending stocks is massing.</b>This may push these stocks to continue to rise, forming a stronger trend, which in turn will fuel the frenzy.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value Stocks Return! Buffett, Soros are bullish on this trend at the same time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue Stocks Return! Buffett, Soros are bullish on this trend at the same time\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1031387410\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9d5f4b95db8404bba99942eba2fb10c);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">弹道财经 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 19:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>By David Eifrig, Ph.D.</p><p>Abstract: Whether you recognize Buffett or Soros, you can now grasp a kind of trading opportunity, because it actually conforms to the philosophy of these two big bosses at the same time!</p><p><b>This article focuses on</b></p><p><b>1. Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p><b>2. Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and the two big bosses have the same goal through different routes?</b></p><p>Berry Research Statement: The views in this article are based on open market information and historical data. They are not used as direct investment suggestions, but only for communication. Welcome to leave messages to discuss related topics.</p><p><b>PART1</b></p><p><b>Buffett VS Soros, who will you side with?</b></p><p>In many cases, investors entering the market have to face a multiple-choice question, whether to stand with Buffett or Soros? Behind them are two sets of investment philosophies.</p><p>The successes of investors Warren Buffett and George Soros are legendary. Whether Soros made $1 billion during the period of \"taking down the Bank of England\" or Buffett's 1,550% return from Coca-Cola stock, they have achieved remarkable records, which are difficult for many people to replicate.</p><p>But if investors are interested in imitating the investment routines of these two legends, they can usually only choose one big boss to follow. Because these two investment bosses have diametrically opposite views on volatility and risk. For the most part, investors either side with Buffett or with Soros.</p><p><b>Known for his value investing, Buffett is cautiously focused on firms with strong fundamentals.</b>He is a long-term investor who is not good at speculative trading. In the long run, he has proven that his strategy works — his ROI is enough to dump most speculators a few blocks.</p><p>Buffett famously said, \"Only when the tide recedes will you know who is swimming naked.\"</p><p>In other words, it is the bull market that provides cover for excessively risky bets. But if investors have been taking risks without doing their research and being adequately prepared for a decline, investors will bear the brunt of the bubble when it bursts.</p><p><b>In contrast to Mr Buffett, Mr Soros likes to jump into strong market trends</b>As he said in 2009, \"When I see a bubble forming, I buy it quickly and add fuel to the fire.\"</p><p>In Soros's view, the speculative frenzy is not a red flag, but an opportunity. After markets break away from fundamentals, they will continue to rise at an unprecedented rate, which is simply unimaginable with earnings growth fixed.</p><p>At times like this,<b>Soros's investment philosophy is to put aside fundamentals and invest with investor sentiment.</b></p><p>Thus, what can be seen from these two most successful investors of all time is diametrically opposite investment wisdom. Soros wants to swim naked until the last wave hits, while Buffett will say, Beware, you have to wear your swimming trunks.</p><p>This is an essential problem lurking in investment.</p><p>When investors see some market signs, such as seeing that the trend is taking shape and funds are flowing, are they going to follow the trend and ride the wind and waves? Or should we consider \"mean\" regressions and bet on their true value? Most of the time, there is no unique correct answer to this multiple-choice question.</p><p>For example, in the recent \"meme stock\" frenzy, some stocks, including struggling retailer GameStop (symbol: GME), have completely divorced from reality.</p><p>Maybe Soros will say that the market is too crazy and the time has come to make a lot of money, so he will find the relatively perfect trading opportunity of GameStop to exacerbate the madness of this stock.</p><p>Buffett, on the contrary, may say that GameStop's price is ridiculous and unsustainable, and he would never get his hands on this stock.</p><p>As shown in the chart below, Soros's trading approach is mostly correct as of now. However, we are also sure that Buffett's judgment will eventually be verified.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/131badcea9697f37888f66d925cc5811\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>But those crazy stocks aside,<b>There is a factor emerging in the market that gives investors the opportunity to side with Soros and Buffett at the same time. There are some types of stocks that may be favored by both the Soros camp and the Buffett camp.</b></p><p><b>PART2</b></p><p><b>Value stocks are becoming trend stocks, and two big bosses have the same goal by different paths?</b></p><p>Value stocks are Buffett's favorite type of investment, simply referring to stocks with lower valuations, which usually can<b>Use a lower price-to-book ratio as a judgment indicator.</b>Value investors typically explore stable investment opportunities in these solid but undervalued stocks.</p><p>Trend stocks, on the other hand, mainly refer to stocks whose prices are rising,<b>Generally speaking, they tend to produce positive high yields for 12 consecutive months.</b></p><p>The vast majority of the time, value investors and trend investors view markets in opposite ways. Specifically:</p><p>The value faction believes that if the price of a stock goes up, then its price becomes no longer cheap.</p><p>Trenders, on the other hand, believe that if a stock is trading cheaply, its price usually continues to move lower.</p><p>And as the economy strengthens, the market begins to favor value stocks,<b>Value stocks also have the characteristics of trend stocks.</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b39214033b136845c7cfca78cbb02174\" tg-width=\"510\" tg-height=\"325\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The opportunity could be enormous.</p><p>Many investors and institutions on Wall Street identify themselves as value investors, so they buy cheap stocks (side Buffett), while many traders and hedge funds prefer to follow the trend (side Soros). Many quantitative and algorithmic-based investors will exclusively buy value or trend stocks because they correspond to a certain type.</p><p><b>But with value stocks also becoming trend stocks, investor interest in low-valued, strong-trending stocks is massing.</b>This may push these stocks to continue to rise, forming a stronger trend, which in turn will fuel the frenzy.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fabf9c2bc6a3d13c57438fc00bbe4f1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196342132","content_text":"作者：David Eifrig博士\n摘要：无论你认可巴菲特，还是认同索罗斯，现在都可以把握一类交易机会，因为它竟然同时符合这两位大佬的理念！\n本文聚焦\n1、巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？\n2、价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？\n贝瑞研究声明：文中观点基于公开市场信息和历史数据形成，不作为直接投资建议，仅供交流，欢迎留言探讨相关话题。\nPART1\n巴菲特VS索罗斯，你会站队谁？\n在很多时候，进入市场的投资者都得面对一道选择题，是站队巴菲特还是站队索罗斯？他们背后代表的是两套投资哲学。\n投资家沃伦•巴菲特和乔治•索罗斯的成功都颇具传奇性。无论是索罗斯在“干倒英格兰银行”期间赚了10亿美元，还是巴菲特从可口可乐这只股票中获得了1550%的回报，都战绩赫赫，是很多人难以复制的成功。\n但如果投资者有意模仿这两位传奇人物的投资套路，通常只能选一个大佬来追随。因为，这两位投资大佬对波动性和风险的观点，是截然相反的。在大多数时候，投资者要么站队巴菲特阵营，要么站队索罗斯阵营。\n巴菲特以价值投资著称，他谨慎地专注于基本面强劲的公司。他是个长线投资者，不擅长做投机交易。长期来看，他已经证明了自己的策略是有效的——他的投资回报率足以甩大多数投机者几条街。\n巴菲特有句名言:“只有当潮水退去，你才会知道谁在裸泳。”\n换句话说，就是牛市给过度风险的押注提供了掩护。但如果投资者一直在冒险，却没有尽职做好调研，未对下跌做好充足的准备，那么在泡沫破裂时，投资者将会首当其冲。\n与巴菲特相反，索罗斯则喜欢投身强势的市场趋势中（译者注：趋势投资者，即我们常说的追涨杀跌），正如他在2009年所说的:“当我看到泡沫形成后，我就会赶紧买入，火上浇油一把。”\n在索罗斯看来，投机狂潮并不是一个危险信号，反而是一个机会。市场在脱离基本面后，它们还会以前所未有的速度继续上涨，这在盈利增长固定的情况下根本无法想象。\n在这种时候，索罗斯的投资哲学是抛开基本面，顺着投资者的情绪进行投资。\n由此可见，从这两位有史以来最成功的投资者身上，能看到的是截然相反的投资智慧。索罗斯想裸泳直至最后一波浪潮袭来，而巴菲特则会说，当心，你要穿好泳裤。\n这是潜藏在投资中的一个本质问题。\n当投资者看到一些市场苗头，比如看到趋势正在形成，资金正在流动，此时到底是要追随趋势、乘风破浪？还是该考虑“均值”回归，押注它们的真实价值？在大多数时候，这道选择题没有唯一正确的答案。\n比如在最近的“梗股（meme stock）”狂潮中，包括处境艰难的零售商GameStop (代码：GME)在内，一些股票已经完全脱离了现实。\n可能索罗斯会说市场太疯狂了，赚大钱的时机到了，于是他会找到GameStop相对完美的交易机会，来加剧这只股票的疯狂。\n而巴菲特则恰恰相反，他可能会说GameStop的价格是荒谬且不可持续的，他绝不会染指这种股票。\n如下图所示，截至目前，索罗斯的交易方法大部分是正确的。然而，我们也确信，巴菲特所持的判断，最终也会得到验证。\n\n但撇开那些疯狂的股票不谈，目前市场上正出现一个因素，让投资者有机会同时站队索罗斯和巴菲特。有一些类型的股票，可能同时得到索罗斯阵营和巴菲特阵营的青睐。\nPART2\n价值股正成为趋势股，两位大佬殊途同归？\n价值股是巴菲特最青睐的投资类型，简单来说，就是指估值较低的股票，它们通常可以用较低的市净率作为判断指标。价值投资者通常在这些业务稳固但被低估的股票中，发掘稳定的投资机会。\n而趋势股，则主要指那些价格不断上行的股票，通常来说，它们往往连续12个月为产生正的高收益率。\n绝大多数时候，价值投资者和趋势投资者对市场的看法是相反的。具体来说：\n价值派认为，如果一只股票的价格上涨了，那么它的价格就变得不再便宜。\n趋势派则认为，如果一只股票的交易价格很便宜，那么它的价格通常会继续走低。\n而随着经济走强，市场开始青睐价值股，价值股也有了趋势股的特征。\n\n这个机会可能是巨大的。\n华尔街的许多投资者和机构都自我认定是价值投资者，于是他们买入便宜的股票(站队巴菲特)，而许多交易者和对冲基金，则更喜欢跟随趋势(站队索罗斯)。许多基于量化和算法的投资者会专门买入价值股或趋势股，因为它们对应某个类型。\n但随着价值股也成为趋势股，投资者对低估值、强趋势的股票的兴趣正在大量集结。这或将推动这些股票持续走高，形成更强的趋势，进而助长狂热。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3568,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129253312,"gmtCreate":1624374757336,"gmtModify":1703834917593,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like n comment, thank you very much ","listText":"Like n comment, thank you very much ","text":"Like n comment, thank you very much","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129253312","repostId":"1142464181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142464181","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624372497,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142464181?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-22 22:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The daily premium fresh pricing range is 13-16 USD/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142464181","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息，每日优鲜更新F-1招股书，计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票（ADS），定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码，购买至","content":"<p>On the evening of June 22nd, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily Excellent Fresh</a>Updated F-1 prospectus with planned public offering of 21 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) in a pricing range of $13-16/ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders CICC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Davis, a long-term fund in the United States, will continue to overweight and buy ADS worth up to $90 million.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the net revenue of Daily Youxian from 2018 to 2020 was about 3.546.7 billion yuan, 6.001.4 billion yuan and 6.130.4 billion yuan respectively. Daily Fresh had a net revenue of RMB1,689.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2020 and RMB1,530.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2021.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that the gross profit of Daily Youxian was 304 million yuan in 2018, increased by 71.3% to 520.9 million yuan in 2019, and increased by 128.5% to 1.1904 billion yuan in 2020. The gross profit of Daily Fresh was RMB510.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2020, compared with RMB189 million for the same period in 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, the net loss of daily premium fresh was RMB2,231.6 million, RMB2,909.4 million and RMB1,649.2 million, respectively. Daily Fresh recorded a net loss of RMB194.7 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2020, compared with a loss of RMB610.3 million for the same period in 2021. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the adjusted net loss (non-GAAP standard) of Daily Fresh was RMB2,215.9 million, RMB2,777 million and RMB1,589.7 million, respectively. Daily Fresh recorded an adjusted net loss of 175.8 million yuan for the quarter ended March 31, 2020, compared to a loss of 598.4 million yuan for the same period in 2021.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The daily premium fresh pricing range is 13-16 USD/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe daily premium fresh pricing range is 13-16 USD/ADS, and old shareholders continue to increase their weight\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-22 22:34</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On the evening of June 22nd, Beijing time,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">Daily Excellent Fresh</a>Updated F-1 prospectus with planned public offering of 21 million American Depositary Shares (ADS) in a pricing range of $13-16/ADS.</p><p>Existing shareholders CICC,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">Tencent</a>Davis, a long-term fund in the United States, will continue to overweight and buy ADS worth up to $90 million.</p><p>According to the prospectus, the net revenue of Daily Youxian from 2018 to 2020 was about 3.546.7 billion yuan, 6.001.4 billion yuan and 6.130.4 billion yuan respectively. Daily Fresh had a net revenue of RMB1,689.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2020 and RMB1,530.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2021.</p><p>The prospectus also shows that the gross profit of Daily Youxian was 304 million yuan in 2018, increased by 71.3% to 520.9 million yuan in 2019, and increased by 128.5% to 1.1904 billion yuan in 2020. The gross profit of Daily Fresh was RMB510.8 million for the three months ended March 31, 2020, compared with RMB189 million for the same period in 2021.</p><p>From 2018 to 2020, the net loss of daily premium fresh was RMB2,231.6 million, RMB2,909.4 million and RMB1,649.2 million, respectively. Daily Fresh recorded a net loss of RMB194.7 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2020, compared with a loss of RMB610.3 million for the same period in 2021. In 2018, 2019 and 2020, the adjusted net loss (non-GAAP standard) of Daily Fresh was RMB2,215.9 million, RMB2,777 million and RMB1,589.7 million, respectively. Daily Fresh recorded an adjusted net loss of 175.8 million yuan for the quarter ended March 31, 2020, compared to a loss of 598.4 million yuan for the same period in 2021.</p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bc6d948584260429c150c1dd44a898f","relate_stocks":{"MF":"MindForge Inc."},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142464181","content_text":"北京时间6月22日晚间消息，每日优鲜更新F-1招股书，计划公开发行2100万股美国存托股票（ADS），定价区间为13-16美元/ADS。\n现有股东中金、腾讯、美国长线基金Davis等将持续加码，购买至多价值9000万美元的ADS。\n招股书显示，每日优鲜2018年-2020年的净营收分别约为35.467亿元， 60.014亿元，61.304亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的净营收为16.898亿元，截止2021年3月31日的三个月，净营收为15.302亿元。\n招股书还显示，每日优鲜的毛利润在2018年为3.04亿元，2019年增长71.3%了至5.209亿元，2020年再增长128.5%，达到11.904亿元。截止2020年3月31日的三个月，每日优鲜的毛利为5.108亿元，2021年的同期为1.89亿元。\n2018年至2020年，每日优鲜净亏损分别为22.316亿元，29.094亿元、16.492亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度，每日优鲜净亏损1.947亿元，2021年同期亏损6.103亿元。2018年、2019年和2020年，每日优鲜的调整后净亏损（非GAAP标准）分别为22.159亿元、27.77亿元、15.897亿元。截止2020年3月31日的一个季度，每日优鲜调整后净亏损为1.758亿元，2021年同期亏损5.984亿元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168515476,"gmtCreate":1623978586195,"gmtModify":1703825240006,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like & comment, thank you ","listText":"Like & comment, thank you ","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/168515476","repostId":"2144164740","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2144164740","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1623978494,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2144164740?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"The Fed expects the early rate hike the next day, and the yield of long-term U.S. bonds plummets. Why?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2144164740","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"周四，30年期美债收益率大幅下行16个基点，创2月来最大盘中跌幅和四个月最低，五年/30年期收益率曲线创去年11月来最平。一方面，美联储加息时间提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使收益率曲线走平，同时，这也是QE即将终结的号角。市场对“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维亟需转变。","content":"<p>On Thursday, June 17, a day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned eagle and the \"dot plot\" hinted at an advanced rate hike to 2023, the U.S. long-term Treasury Bond yield plummeted, giving up all of yesterday's gains, and the yield curve flattened even more.</p><p>The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned below the 1.50% mark, falling by 9.7 basis points at the deepest level in the day, pushing the daily low to 1.47%. Yesterday, it soared from less than 1.50% to 1.569%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as deep as 16 basis points in the day, the biggest intraday decline since February, and reached a daily low of 2.049%, the lowest in four months since mid-February</b>。 Yesterday's gain was relatively modest, having risen from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, so today's decline is more striking.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The yield curves of five-year and 30-year U.S. bonds are even flattened, and the yield spread between medium-term and long-term U.S. bonds has plummeted to 118 basis points, and the curve is the flatest since November last year. After yesterday's FOMC meeting, the yield of five-year U.S. bonds soared by more than 11 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the decline of U.S. bond yields, U.S. bank stocks collectively plummeted. At midday, banking ETFs fell by more than 4%, and Philadelphia's KBW Bank Index fell by 4.5%, the largest intraday decline in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 3%.</p><p>At the same time, ICE the US Dollar Index once broke 92 integer digits, refreshing the two-month high since April 13th. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5th, and COME August gold futures closed down nearly 4.7%, at least the largest one-day decline of the main contract since November last year, closing at less than $1,775, the lowest closing since April 30th.</p><p><h2><b>Fed's rate hike timetable curbs long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, prompting U.S. bond yield curve to flatten</b></h2><b>Why is the long-term U.S. bond yield dramatically reversed, and the yield curve is accelerating its collapse?</b>According to Bloomberg data, the composite U.S. bond yield curve has flattened in the past two days, the highest level since the liquidity crisis in March last year.</p><p>Some analysts believe that the latest dot plot of the Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike twice before the end of 2023. This change has pushed up the short-term market interest rate and restricted the long-term inflation expectation, resulting in the flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve. Money market traders have even brought forward their 25 basis point pricing expectations for the Fed's rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.</p><p>George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Fed's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given the green light to people who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as investments, and market participants have begun to buy long-term U.S. debt to hedge other riskier positions in their portfolios.</p><p>Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that reflation trade has suffered a \"major setback\" following the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve at its June policy meeting, and suggests withdrawing from the trade betting on the steepening of the five-year/30-year U.S. bond yield curve. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, takes a similar view.</p><p>Financial media CNBC believes that the prices of base metals such as copper continue to fall weekly, and bond traders are paying attention to the sharp selling of commodities. Bond yields typically move in tandem with commodities because they are both seen as a barometer of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that last week, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States increased to 412,000, returning to above the 400,000 mark, higher than the market expectation of 360,000. The demand for safe haven also led some investors to return to the U.S. debt market, thus depressing bond yields.</p><p>Zerohedge, a financial blog, quoted the analysis of Mish Talk, a global economic trend website, saying that the yield curve of U.S. bonds can't be called \"absolutely flat\" at present, but the flattening trend is very important, and the sharp drop in the yield of 30-year long-term U.S. bonds itself is also an important signal.<b>This means that the inflation scare is basically in the \"rearview mirror\", that is, it is not the main point that the market is primarily worried about and affects trading moves.</b></p><p><h2><b>The high-profile flattening of the yield curve of U.S. bonds or the call for the end of QE volume easing bond buying, investors should buy bonds</b></h2>Wall Street also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, which was called \"the most important in five years\", marked that monetary policy will gradually enter the second half. In the future, the focus of market differences may lie in the \"slowness\" and \"urgency\" of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will be normalized. The inertial thinking of \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed:</p><p>Judging from the results, we mentioned in Tuesday's outlook that four \"surprises\" actually landed: wind Taper, inflation expectation raised, rate hike time moved forward, and IOER/ON RRP interest rate raised, which means that the Federal Reserve has shown the posture of releasing phased exit signals through expected guidance tools.<b>Many people believe that the high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve is the warning sound that QE quantity wide bond buying is about to end</b>。</p><p>Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of U.S. bond yields in different periods before, during and after the Fed's previous QE. He found that the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE. As shown in the picture circle below, when the Federal Reserve reversed QE to buy bonds through quantitative tightening (QT), the yield of U.S. bonds often dropped sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Similarly, the two-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve moves similarly. During the period of QE volume width, the short-term yield is relatively stable and the long-term yield rises, that is, the yield curve steepens, but after the end of QE, the yield curve flattens rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>His advice is:</p><p>\"From the beginning of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year U.S. bond yield tends to rise by about 1%. The U.S. bond yield will peak before the end of QE, when the Fed will get closer and closer to tapering or stopping QE purchases. At present, the U.S. bond yield is approaching its cycle high, and if the Fed is close to tapering its bond purchases, the U.S. bond yield may peak. In view of the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Fed is actually about to taper, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds will drop by 1% or more in the next six months to a year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds do poorly during QE and will do strongly after QE.<b>Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.</b>As our confidence in the Fed reducing the pace of quantitative easing grows, both our total bond allocation and our bond duration should increase. \" Since the FOMC unexpectedly turned hawk yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will officially announce the taper plan to reduce asset purchases at the September meeting, and the actual reduction of bond purchases will be implemented from November, faster than they had previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. And taper is also a precursor to the actual rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>It has been said that a flattening yield curve may have an impact on consumption levels. Therefore, a flattening yield curve usually indicates that the market thinks economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future:</p><p>The rise in the level of short-term yield may indirectly affect some mortgage interest rates. If the short-term interest rate is higher than the long-term interest rate, some consumer mortgage interest rates will also rise, thus affecting consumers' consumption demand; In addition, the increase in short-term Treasury Bond interest rates may increase some of the financing costs, and consumers' disposable income may be relatively reduced, which may have a negative impact on consumer demand. A flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed income investors and real estate investors.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed expects the early rate hike the next day, and the yield of long-term U.S. bonds plummets. Why?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed expects the early rate hike the next day, and the yield of long-term U.S. bonds plummets. Why?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>On Thursday, June 17, a day after the Federal Reserve's FOMC unexpectedly turned eagle and the \"dot plot\" hinted at an advanced rate hike to 2023, the U.S. long-term Treasury Bond yield plummeted, giving up all of yesterday's gains, and the yield curve flattened even more.</p><p>The 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury Bond yield returned below the 1.50% mark, falling by 9.7 basis points at the deepest level in the day, pushing the daily low to 1.47%. Yesterday, it soared from less than 1.50% to 1.569%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffd5267d3487e22248de30cd4fd7ac10\" tg-width=\"669\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as deep as 16 basis points in the day, the biggest intraday decline since February, and reached a daily low of 2.049%, the lowest in four months since mid-February</b>。 Yesterday's gain was relatively modest, having risen from 2.18% to nearly 2.21%, so today's decline is more striking.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e99ec07722cd40c57e5f41723bb984\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"275\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>The yield curves of five-year and 30-year U.S. bonds are even flattened, and the yield spread between medium-term and long-term U.S. bonds has plummeted to 118 basis points, and the curve is the flatest since November last year. After yesterday's FOMC meeting, the yield of five-year U.S. bonds soared by more than 11 basis points.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1fcf3d4cdb870f82a2403d36fe9c72c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>With the decline of U.S. bond yields, U.S. bank stocks collectively plummeted. At midday, banking ETFs fell by more than 4%, and Philadelphia's KBW Bank Index fell by 4.5%, the largest intraday decline in seven months.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>Both fell by more than 4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a>And<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Down 3%.</p><p>At the same time, ICE the US Dollar Index once broke 92 integer digits, refreshing the two-month high since April 13th. Spot gold fell below $1,770 for the first time since May 5th, and COME August gold futures closed down nearly 4.7%, at least the largest one-day decline of the main contract since November last year, closing at less than $1,775, the lowest closing since April 30th.</p><p><h2><b>Fed's rate hike timetable curbs long-term inflation expectations ahead of schedule, prompting U.S. bond yield curve to flatten</b></h2><b>Why is the long-term U.S. bond yield dramatically reversed, and the yield curve is accelerating its collapse?</b>According to Bloomberg data, the composite U.S. bond yield curve has flattened in the past two days, the highest level since the liquidity crisis in March last year.</p><p>Some analysts believe that the latest dot plot of the Federal Reserve is expected to rate hike twice before the end of 2023. This change has pushed up the short-term market interest rate and restricted the long-term inflation expectation, resulting in the flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve. Money market traders have even brought forward their 25 basis point pricing expectations for the Fed's rate hike to the fourth quarter of next year.</p><p>George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities Americas, believes that the Fed's \"credibility as an inflation fighter\" has given the green light to people who were previously worried about buying long-term Treasury Bond as investments, and market participants have begun to buy long-term U.S. debt to hedge other riskier positions in their portfolios.</p><p>Priya Misra, head of global interest rate strategy at TD Securities, also believes that reflation trade has suffered a \"major setback\" following the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve at its June policy meeting, and suggests withdrawing from the trade betting on the steepening of the five-year/30-year U.S. bond yield curve. Praveen Korapaty, chief interest rate strategist at Goldman Sachs Group, takes a similar view.</p><p>Financial media CNBC believes that the prices of base metals such as copper continue to fall weekly, and bond traders are paying attention to the sharp selling of commodities. Bond yields typically move in tandem with commodities because they are both seen as a barometer of global economic growth. Today's latest data shows that last week, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States increased to 412,000, returning to above the 400,000 mark, higher than the market expectation of 360,000. The demand for safe haven also led some investors to return to the U.S. debt market, thus depressing bond yields.</p><p>Zerohedge, a financial blog, quoted the analysis of Mish Talk, a global economic trend website, saying that the yield curve of U.S. bonds can't be called \"absolutely flat\" at present, but the flattening trend is very important, and the sharp drop in the yield of 30-year long-term U.S. bonds itself is also an important signal.<b>This means that the inflation scare is basically in the \"rearview mirror\", that is, it is not the main point that the market is primarily worried about and affects trading moves.</b></p><p><h2><b>The high-profile flattening of the yield curve of U.S. bonds or the call for the end of QE volume easing bond buying, investors should buy bonds</b></h2>Wall Street also pointed out that yesterday's FOMC meeting, which was called \"the most important in five years\", marked that monetary policy will gradually enter the second half. In the future, the focus of market differences may lie in the \"slowness\" and \"urgency\" of monetary policy normalization, rather than whether it will be normalized. The inertial thinking of \"liquidity feast\" needs to be changed:</p><p>Judging from the results, we mentioned in Tuesday's outlook that four \"surprises\" actually landed: wind Taper, inflation expectation raised, rate hike time moved forward, and IOER/ON RRP interest rate raised, which means that the Federal Reserve has shown the posture of releasing phased exit signals through expected guidance tools.<b>Many people believe that the high-profile flattening of the U.S. bond yield curve is the warning sound that QE quantity wide bond buying is about to end</b>。</p><p>Analyst Michael Lebowtiz compared the performance of U.S. bond yields in different periods before, during and after the Fed's previous QE. He found that the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds rose during each QE period and fell at the end of QE. As shown in the picture circle below, when the Federal Reserve reversed QE to buy bonds through quantitative tightening (QT), the yield of U.S. bonds often dropped sharply.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5552ccf371c5563f87db936ffe98c66\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Similarly, the two-year/10-year U.S. bond yield curve moves similarly. During the period of QE volume width, the short-term yield is relatively stable and the long-term yield rises, that is, the yield curve steepens, but after the end of QE, the yield curve flattens rapidly.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2370108d5040760978868677b50c507\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"316\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>His advice is:</p><p>\"From the beginning of QE to the peak yield level during QE, the 10-year U.S. bond yield tends to rise by about 1%. The U.S. bond yield will peak before the end of QE, when the Fed will get closer and closer to tapering or stopping QE purchases. At present, the U.S. bond yield is approaching its cycle high, and if the Fed is close to tapering its bond purchases, the U.S. bond yield may peak. In view of the previous experience of tapering bond purchases at the end of QE, if the Fed is actually about to taper, the yield of 10-year U.S. bonds will drop by 1% or more in the next six months to a year. What stock market investors may not know is that bonds do poorly during QE and will do strongly after QE.<b>Bond investors should sell when the Fed buys and buy when the Fed sells.</b>As our confidence in the Fed reducing the pace of quantitative easing grows, both our total bond allocation and our bond duration should increase. \" Since the FOMC unexpectedly turned hawk yesterday,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCS\">Barclays Bank</a>Economists believe that the Federal Reserve will officially announce the taper plan to reduce asset purchases at the September meeting, and the actual reduction of bond purchases will be implemented from November, faster than they had previously expected to be announced in November this year and implemented in January next year. And taper is also a precursor to the actual rate hike.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">CITIC Securities</a>It has been said that a flattening yield curve may have an impact on consumption levels. Therefore, a flattening yield curve usually indicates that the market thinks economic growth is unsustainable and will decline in the future:</p><p>The rise in the level of short-term yield may indirectly affect some mortgage interest rates. If the short-term interest rate is higher than the long-term interest rate, some consumer mortgage interest rates will also rise, thus affecting consumers' consumption demand; In addition, the increase in short-term Treasury Bond interest rates may increase some of the financing costs, and consumers' disposable income may be relatively reduced, which may have a negative impact on consumer demand. A flattening yield curve also has a negative impact on fixed income investors and real estate investors.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3633223","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2144164740","content_text":"6月17日周四，在美联储FOMC意外转鹰、“点阵图”暗示将提前至2023年加息的一天后，美国长期国债收益率大跌，回吐昨日全部涨幅，收益率曲线更加趋平。\n10年期基准美国国债收益率重回1.50%关口下方，日内最深下行9.7个基点，日低下逼1.47%，昨日曾从不足1.50%飙升至1.569%。\n\n30年期美债收益率日内最深下行16个基点，创2月以来最大盘中跌幅，日低至2.049%，刷新2月中旬来的四个月最低。昨日涨幅相对不大，曾从2.18%升至近2.21%，因此今日跌势更加醒目。\n\n五年期与30年期美债收益率曲线更为趋平，中期与长期美债典型代表的收益率息差骤降至118个基点，曲线为去年11月以来最平状态。昨日FOMC会后，五年期美债收益率曾暴涨超11个基点。\n\n伴随美债收益率下跌，美股银行股集体大跌，午盘时银行业ETF跌超4%，费城KBW银行指数下跌4.5%，创七个月最大盘中跌幅。富国银行、花旗、美国银行、摩根士丹利均跌超4%，高盛和摩根大通跌3%。\n同时，ICE美元指数一度上破92整数位，刷新4月13日以来的两个月高位。现货黄金自5月5日以来首次跌破1770美元，COME 8月期金收跌近4.7%，至少创去年11月以来主力合约最大单日跌幅，收报不足1775美元，也创4月30日以来收盘最低。\n美联储加息时间表提前抑制长期通胀预期，促使美债收益率曲线趋平\n为何长期美债收益率出现戏剧性逆转，同时收益率曲线在加速坍塌？据彭博社数据，过去两天的综合美债收益率曲线趋平幅度，为去年3月流动性危机以来的最高水平。\n有分析认为，美联储最新点阵图预期2023年底之前将加息两次，这一转变推高了较短期限的市场利率，并制约了长期通胀预期，导致美债收益率曲线趋平。货币市场交易员们甚至把对美联储加息25个基点的定价预期提前到了明年第四季度。\nMUFG Securities Americas 美国宏观策略主管George Goncalves认为，美联储“作为通胀斗士的可信度”，给此前担心购买长久期国债作为投资的人们大开绿灯，市场参与者开始购入长期美债，用来对冲投资组合中其他风险更高的头寸。\n道明证券的全球利率策略主管Priya Misra也认为，继美联储在6月政策会议上发出鹰派信号之后，再通胀交易（reflation trade）遭受了“重大挫折”，建议退出押注五年/30年期美债收益率曲线陡峭化的交易。高盛集团首席利率策略师Praveen Korapaty也持类似观点。\n财经媒体CNBC则认为，铜等基础金属价格继续周度下跌，债券交易员正在关注大宗商品的大幅抛售。债券收益率通常与大宗商品同步变动，因为它们都被视为全球经济增长的晴雨表。今日最新数据显示，上周美国首申失业金人数增至41.2万，重回40万关口上方，高于市场预期的36万人，避险需求也导致部分投资者回流美债市场，进而压低债券收益率。\n金融博客Zerohedge援引全球经济趋势网站Mish Talk的分析称，美债收益率曲线目前不能称为“绝对平坦”，但日渐趋平的趋势很重要，30年期长期美债收益率大跌本身也是重要信号，这代表通胀恐慌已经基本处于“后视镜”中，即不是市场主要担心并影响交易举动的要点了。\n美债收益率曲线高调趋平或是QE量宽买债即将终结的号角，投资者应买债\n华尔街见闻也分析指出，昨日被称为“五年来最重要”的FOMC会议标志着货币政策将逐渐走入下半场，以后市场分歧的焦点或在于货币政策正常化的“缓”与“急”，而不是会否正常化，“流动性盛宴”的惯性思维需要作出转变：\n\n 从结果来看，我们在周二前瞻中提到四大“惊喜”居然系数落地：放风Taper，通胀预期上调，加息时点前移，IOER /ON RRP利率上调，这意味着美联储已表现出通过预期引导工具，释放阶段性退出信号的姿态。\n\n不少人认为，美债收益率曲线高调趋平发出的正是QE量宽买债即将终结的警示音。\n分析师Michael Lebowtiz对比了美债收益率在美联储历次QE前、中、后不同时期的表现。他发现，10年期美债收益率在每个QE期间上升、并在QE结束时下降，如下图画圈处所示，当美联储通过量化紧缩 （QT）来逆转QE买债时，美债收益率往往急剧下降。\n\n同样，两年/10年期美债收益率曲线的走势类似。QE量宽期间，短期收益率相对稳定且长期收益率上升，即收益率曲线陡峭化，但在QE结束后，收益率曲线会迅速变平。\n\n他给出的建议是：\n\n “从QE开始到QE期间的峰值收益率水平处，10年期美债收益率往往会上涨约1%。美债收益率会在QE结束前达到峰值，这时美联储也会越来越接近缩减购债（taper）或停止QE购买。目前，美债收益率正接近其周期高点，如果美联储接近缩减购债，美债收益率可能会见顶。鉴于此前的QE末期缩减购债经验，如果美联储实际上即将taper，10年期美债收益率会在未来6个月到一年内下降1%甚至更多。股市投资者可能不知道的是，QE期间债券表现不佳，QE结束后会表现强劲。\n 债券投资者应该在美联储买入时卖出、在美联储卖出时买入。随着我们对美联储降低量化宽松步伐的信心增强，我们的债券配置总量和债券久期都应增加。”\n\n自昨日FOMC意外转鹰后，巴克莱银行的经济学家认为，美联储将在9月会议上正式宣布缩减资产购买的taper计划，实际削减买债从11月开始执行，快于他们此前预期的今年11月宣布和明年1月开始执行。而taper也是实际加息的前兆。\n中信证券明明曾称，趋平的收益率曲线可能会对消费水平有所影响，因此，收益率曲线趋平通常表明市场认为经济增长不可持续，将在未来下降：\n\n 短期收益率水平的上升可能会通过间接影响某些抵押贷款利率，如果短期利率高于长期利率，一些消费抵押贷款利率也会随之升高，进而影响消费者的消费需求；此外，短期国债利率的升高可能会提升部分融资成本，消费者的可支配收入相对减少，对消费需求可能产生负面影响。趋平的收益率曲线对固定收益投资者和房地产投资者也有负面影响。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184070530,"gmtCreate":1623679294220,"gmtModify":1704208499930,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like & comment, thank you ","listText":"Like & comment, thank you ","text":"Like & comment, thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/184070530","repostId":"1123321973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123321973","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业，总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1623649058,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123321973?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-14 13:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"The Fed is going to turn its face? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Are Solemn","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123321973","media":"Wind万得","summary":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策","content":"<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>In May, inflation in the United States has reached 5%, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce the reduction of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts to shrinking balance sheet and tighten its monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>/ /Super Central Bank Week Comes/ /</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the most concerned.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision; Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that from the current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian National Bank, the Turkish National Bank and the Egyptian National Bank will probably choose to keep the existing benchmark interest rate unchanged.</p><p>While the Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norwegian central bank may suggest a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>/ /Soaring inflation, the Fed is going to change its face? //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal for global monetary policy tightening.</p><p>Wind inquired about various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year as soon as possible, while the more general view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But people don't seem very convinced that the Fed thinks \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Fed will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide volatility.</p><p>Dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year as markets await a clear signal from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>/ /US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years/ /</b></p><p>If the Fed reverses its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time,<b>In May, CPI rose 5% year-on-year, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise 4.7%, and the previous value rose 4.2%, the biggest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from EDB module of Wind financial terminal)</p><p>Annual inflation measures are getting a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices plummeted as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets now expect this so-called base effect to push inflation figures sharply higher in May and June into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of data recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, home prices across the United States are skyrocketing as of April.</p><p>The S&P Schiller home price index rose 13.2% in March from the same period in 2020, the biggest increase since December 2005, and 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed a further increase in inflationary pressures in the United States. According to the report, economic activity in U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster rate from early April to the end of May. Jurisdictions generally expect costs and selling prices to continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>/ /Inflation data released, markets are not panicking/ /</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11th exceeded expectations, but it did not cause market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major stock indexes in the United States closed up collectively, all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3/oz; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, and the July contract of U.S. oil rose 0.19% to $70.09/barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why the market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight, and the market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to hint at when it might start tapering its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target levels for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>/ /Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risk of shrinking balance sheet in rate hike of the Federal Reserve/ /</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the inflation in the United States continued to rise, which posed a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that in addition to rising U.S. inflation and yields pushing up borrowing costs in developing countries,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will cause money to flow out of emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering a currency devaluation.</b></p><p>Refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs, according to S&P. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in a research report released on June 11th.</p><p>He said that if the market expects, the vaccination in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflow from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, China has normalized its monetary policy,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy one day, or starts to shrinking balance sheet and tighten its monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, and funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook in the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>The second point is that the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over and the high is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectation and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed is going to turn its face? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Are Solemn</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed is going to turn its face? Super Central Bank Week, Markets Are Solemn\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-14 13:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>This week ushered in Super Central Bank Week, and many central banks such as the Federal Reserve will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p>In May, inflation in the United States has reached 5%, hitting a 13-year high. Will the Federal Reserve announce the reduction of QE at its interest rate meeting this week? This has become the focus of the market.</p><p>Ren Zeping, a famous economist, said recently,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy, or starts to shrinking balance sheet and tighten its monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b></p><p><b>/ /Super Central Bank Week Comes/ /</b></p><p>This week, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, etc. will announce their interest rate decisions.</p><p><b>Among them, the Federal Reserve is the most concerned.</b></p><p><b>At 2 o'clock on June 17th, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision; Half an hour later, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference.</b></p><p>See the chart below for the specific schedule:</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff5e9242d2cb24ab2f8c085ee97398fa\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c2ba121bcf020e5143b1c267e4b3ab\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"677\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc1db7d53aa8152a842b90048161e1\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"1037\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd247431fbeed69ea074da3ebbc4788\" tg-width=\"779\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Wind combed and found that from the current market expectations, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Indonesia, the Swiss National Bank, the Norwegian National Bank, the Turkish National Bank and the Egyptian National Bank will probably choose to keep the existing benchmark interest rate unchanged.</p><p>While the Ukrainian central bank may choose rate hike for 50 basis points, the Brazilian central bank may choose rate hike for 75 basis points. The Norwegian central bank may suggest a rate hike in September this year.</p><p><b>/ /Soaring inflation, the Fed is going to change its face? //</b></p><p>Once the Federal Reserve announces a reduction in monthly bond purchases (QE), it will be considered a key signal for global monetary policy tightening.</p><p>Wind inquired about various sources and found that the current mainstream view is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release this signal at the annual meeting of global central banks in Jackson Hole before the end of August this year as soon as possible, while the more general view is to announce it at the meeting in September this year. But people don't seem very convinced that the Fed thinks \"inflation is only temporary.\"</p><p>\"Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors,\" the Fed wrote in its April policy statement. Therefore, for the interest rate decision in June, whether the Fed will delete this statement is expected to be the \"epicenter\" of market-wide volatility.</p><p>Dollar volatility has fallen to its lowest level in more than a year as markets await a clear signal from the Federal Reserve.</p><p><b>/ /US CPI hits a new high in nearly 13 years/ /</b></p><p>If the Fed reverses its dovish stance, inflation will be the deciding factor.</p><p>According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 10th local time,<b>In May, CPI rose 5% year-on-year, a new high since August 2008. It was expected to rise 4.7%, and the previous value rose 4.2%, the biggest year-on-year increase in nearly 13 years</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53c0507e13d2d924ecaefcd462dced92\" tg-width=\"989\" tg-height=\"758\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>(Picture from EDB module of Wind financial terminal)</p><p>Annual inflation measures are getting a boost compared to last year's data during the pandemic, when prices plummeted as demand for many goods and services plummeted. Markets now expect this so-called base effect to push inflation figures sharply higher in May and June into the fall.</p><p>According to a number of data recently released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, home prices across the United States are skyrocketing as of April.</p><p>The S&P Schiller home price index rose 13.2% in March from the same period in 2020, the biggest increase since December 2005, and 90% of U.S. cities, including New York and San Francisco, hit new highs.</p><p>The Federal Reserve's \"Beige Book\" released in early June showed a further increase in inflationary pressures in the United States. According to the report, economic activity in U.S. jurisdictions expanded moderately at a faster rate from early April to the end of May. Jurisdictions generally expect costs and selling prices to continue to rise in the coming months.</p><p><b>/ /Inflation data released, markets are not panicking/ /</b></p><p>However, it is worth noting that the US inflation data on June 11th exceeded expectations, but it did not cause market panic.</p><p>On the same day, the three major stock indexes in the United States closed up collectively, all within 1%; European stocks were mixed. COMEX gold futures rose 0.31% to $1,901.3/oz; International crude oil futures closed generally higher, and the July contract of U.S. oil rose 0.19% to $70.09/barrel. London base metals were mixed, with LME copper futures down 0.85%.</p><p><b>One of the reasons why the market volatility has not risen is the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank overnight, and the market may think that the same phenomenon will happen to the Federal Reserve.</b></p><p>The European Central Bank (ECB) has chosen not to hint at when it might start tapering its pandemic-era stimulus package and expects inflation to remain below target levels for the foreseeable future. At the same time, the European Central Bank decided to continue the stimulus plan, and its ultra-low interest rate remained unchanged.</p><p><b>/ /Ren Zeping: Be wary of the risk of shrinking balance sheet in rate hike of the Federal Reserve/ /</b></p><p>Although there was no panic in the market after the inflation data was released last week, the inflation in the United States continued to rise, which posed a real threat to emerging markets.</p><p>Tatiana Lysenko, chief emerging markets economist at S&P Global Ratings, said that in addition to rising U.S. inflation and yields pushing up borrowing costs in developing countries,<b>The broader risk is that the U.S. economy will be ahead of emerging economies, which will cause money to flow out of emerging market stocks and bonds, ultimately triggering a currency devaluation.</b></p><p>Refinancing costs in 15 of the 18 largest advanced economies are more than 1 percentage point lower than average borrowing costs, according to S&P. Most of these economies pay less than 1% in interest.</p><p>Ren Zeping, chief economist of Soochow Securities, called for vigilance against the risks caused by the shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve's rate hike in a research report released on June 11th.</p><p>He said that if the market expects, the vaccination in the United States may reach 70% around October, and the vaccination will be basically completed by the end of the year. The future shrinking balance sheet of the Federal Reserve and the risk of capital outflow from new markets deserve vigilance.</p><p>He stressed that global asset price valuations are now very high, China has normalized its monetary policy,<b>If the Federal Reserve normalizes its monetary policy one day, or starts to shrinking balance sheet and tighten its monetary policy, it will put pressure on the global capital market.</b>In February and March this year, the US Dollar Index briefly strengthened, and funds flowed out of new markets, and the Turkish market collapsed directly.</p><p>Regarding the economic, policy and market outlook in the third quarter, he reminded investors to remember three points:</p><p><b>First, the first quarter is the economic high, and the second and third quarters will slow down marginally.</b></p><p><b>The second point is that the most violent rise in commodity prices may be over and the high is approaching.</b></p><p><b>Third, the market's expectation and anxiety about monetary policy tightening will ease.</b></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c642e2602b0226eff0cc78e1452765cc","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123321973","content_text":"本周迎来超级央行周，美联储等多家央行将公布利率决议。\n美国5月通胀已经高达5%，创出十三年新高，美联储本周议息会议会不会宣布缩减QE？这已成为市场焦点。\n著名经济学家任泽平近日表示，如果美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球资本市场产生压力。\n// 超级央行周到来 //\n本周，美联储、日本央行、瑞士央行等将公布利率决议。\n其中，最受关注的还是美联储。\n北京时间6月17日2点，美联储将公布利率决议；半小时后，美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。\n具体日程参见下方图表：\n\nWind梳理发现，从目前市场预期来看，美联储、日本央行、印尼央行、瑞士央行、挪威央行、土耳其央行和埃及央行等大概率会选择维持现有基准利率水平不变。\n而乌克兰央行可能会选择加息50个基点，巴西央行则可能会加息75个基点。挪威央行可能会暗示在今年9月的时候宣布加息。\n// 通胀飙升，美联储要变脸？ //\n美联储一旦宣布减少每月债券购买规模（QE），将被认为是全球收紧货币政策的关键信号。\nWind查询多方资料发现，目前主流看法是，美联储最快有望在今年8月末之前的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放该信号，而更为普遍看法是在今年9月份的会议上宣布。但不人们似乎不太相信美联储认为“通胀只是暂时的”说法。\n美联储在4月份的政策声明中写道：“Inflation has risen, largely reflecting transitory factors.”（通胀已经走高，主要反映了暂时性因素）。因此，对于6月的利率决议来说，美联储是否会删除这一表述，预计将会是引发全市场波动的“震中”。\n目前市场正在等待美联储的明确信号，美元波动率已跌至一年多来的最低水平。\n// 美国CPI创近13年新高 //\n如果美联储改变鸽派立场，通胀将是决定性因素。\n美国劳工部当地时间10日公布的数据显示，5月CPI同比升5%，创2008年8月来新高，预期升4.7%，前值升4.2%，创下近13年来最大同比增幅。\n\n（图片来自Wind金融终端EDB模块）\n与去年疫情期间的数据相比，年度通胀指标得到了提振，当时由于对许多商品和服务的需求暴跌，价格大幅下跌。市场目前预计这种所谓的基数效应将大幅推高5月和6月的通胀数据，直至秋季。\n据美国商务部近期公布的多项数据显示，截止4月，全美范围内的房价正在大幅飙升。\n标普席勒房价指数3月较2020年同期上涨13.2%，为2005年12月以来最大涨幅，包括纽约、旧金山在内的美国90%的城市房价指数均创下新高。\n6月月初公布的美联储“褐皮书”显示美国通胀压力进一步增加。报告显示，4月初至5月底，美国各辖区经济活动以更快速度温和扩张。各辖区普遍预计，未来几个月成本和销售价格可能继续上扬。\n// 通胀数据公布，市场并未恐慌 //\n不过值得注意的是，6月11日美国通胀数据超预期，但是并没有引发市场恐慌。\n当天，美国三大股指集体收涨，涨幅均在1%之内；欧股涨跌不一。COMEX期金涨0.31%，报1901.3美元/盎司；国际原油期货收盘普涨，美油7月合约涨0.19%，报70.09美元/桶。伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜跌0.85%。\n市场波动率未上升的其中一个原因是隔夜欧央行鸽派的态度，市场或认为同样现象也会发生在美联储身上。\n欧洲央行(ECB)选择不暗示何时可能开始缩减其疫情时期的刺激计划，并预计在可预见的未来，通胀仍将低于目标水平。同时欧洲央行决定继续实施刺激计划，其超低利率也保持不变。\n// 任泽平：警惕美联储加息缩表风险 //\n尽管上周通胀数据公布后，市场并未出现恐慌，但是美国通胀持续走高，对新兴市场却构成实质威胁。\n标普全球评级新兴市场首席经济学家塔蒂亚娜·李森科表示，美国通胀和收益率上升会推高发展中国家的借贷成本，除此之外，更广泛的风险是，美国经济将领先于新兴经济体，这将导致资金流出新兴市场股票和债券，最终引发货币贬值。\n标普的数据显示，18个最大的发达经济体中有15个的再融资成本比平均借贷成本低1个百分点以上。其中大多数经济体支付的利息不到1%。\n东吴证券首席经济学家任泽平在6月11日发布的研报中呼吁，警惕美联储加息缩表引发的风险。\n他表示，如果按照市场预计，10月份前后，美国的疫苗接种可能能达到70%，到年底基本接种完毕，美联储未来的缩表和资本从新市场流出的风险值得警惕。\n他强调，现在全球资产价格估值都很高，中国已经货币政策正常化了，如果哪天美联储货币政策正常化，或者说开始缩表、紧缩货币政策，会对全球的资本市场产生压力。今年二三月份美元指数短暂走强，资金从新市场流出，土耳其市场直接就崩盘了。\n对于三季度的经济、政策和市场展望，他提醒投资者记住三点：\n第一点，一季度是经济高点，二三季度会边际放缓。\n第二点，大宗商品价格最猛烈的上涨的阶段可能结束了，高点临近了。\n第三点，市场对货币政策收紧的预期和焦虑会缓解。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130356214,"gmtCreate":1621515127938,"gmtModify":1704358874764,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"??","listText":"??","text":"??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/130356214","repostId":"2136317942","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":194869875,"gmtCreate":1621354366597,"gmtModify":1704356367897,"author":{"id":"3582722070972100","authorId":"3582722070972100","name":"爱丽丝郑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b23509784d45d9eceffcc0d970b181d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582722070972100","idStr":"3582722070972100"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"?","listText":"?","text":"?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/194869875","repostId":"1187734006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":true}