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Jocelynbee
2021-06-16

How to predict the European Championship using stock strategies: Teams are also divided into large, medium, and small odds.

欧洲杯历史上成长/价值和大盘/小盘之间的相生相克，实力并不代表一切。

How to predict the European Championship using stock strategies: Teams are also divided into large, medium, and small odds.

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Leong11
·2021-06-16
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":169775986,"tweetId":"169775986","gmtCreate":1623852336645,"gmtModify":1703821448418,"author":{"id":3583487577231849,"idStr":"3583487577231849","authorId":3583487577231849,"authorIdStr":"3583487577231849","name":"Jocelynbee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7298f59268fb69f6804df90d69de5d","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[],"fanSize":1,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"title":"","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>?</body></html>","text":"?","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/169775986","repostId":1159413534,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159413534","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623818212,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159413534?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-06-16 12:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"How to predict the European Championship using stock strategies: Teams are also divided into large, medium, and small odds.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159413534","media":"一凌策略研究","summary":"欧洲杯历史上成长/价值和大盘/小盘之间的相生相克，实力并不代表一切。","content":"Core Points1. The History of the European Championship Through the Eyes of a Strategy Researcher: The Cycle of Growth and ValueThe European Championship, which was postponed due to the pandemic, will officially kick off in the early hours of June 12th Beijing time. It is a feast for football fans around the world, and the biggest question mark at the moment is who will win the Delano Cup. We first divided the 24 national teams that qualified for the 2020 European Championship finals into large, medium, and small odds based on their current market value. Then, based on the attribute values of each team's participating players in FIFA 21 and the relative strength of their offensive and defensive attributes, we divided each team into two styles: growth and value. Looking back at historical records, we find that growth (attack) is the eternal theme of the European Championship, and large-cap growth (strong offensive teams) always seem to dominate. However, football is round. In the history of the European Championship, Italy, a defensive and counter-attacking powerhouse with a \"large-cap value\" style, has won the championship, while Denmark, a dark horse with a \"small-to-mid-cap growth\" style, and Greece, a \"small-to-mid-cap value\" team, have won the championship. The charm of football may lie in its uncertainty itself.2. Historical patterns: The mutual benefit and restraint between growth/value and large-cap/small-cap stocks.By statistically analyzing the dialogue between various styles in the history of the European Championship, it can be found that: (1) large-cap growth style teams seem to find it difficult to gain an advantage over large-cap value style opponents, and their restraint against small and medium-cap style teams is the main support for their excellent performance in the European Championship; (2) Whether it is a large-cap growth team or a large-cap value team, when facing small and medium-cap teams, the suppression of growth styles is far less than that of value styles. For powerhouses, small and medium-cap teams that are good at attacking are often more troublesome. When facing value-oriented small and medium-sized teams, top teams are often able to find defensive weaknesses in these teams through continuous probing, thereby achieving victory. (3) Mid-cap growth teams have not yet lost to mid-cap value teams, while mid-cap value teams currently maintain a 100% win rate against small-cap value teams. The success rate of small-cap value for small-cap growth is also as high as 100%; Small-cap growth teams have yet to lose against mid-cap growth teams, with a winning percentage as high as 71%. Such a fateful contrast in style between small and mid-odd teams is surprising.3. Book Strength Review: Large-cap growth stocks (aggressive giants) have an advantage, but strength is not everything.For this European Championship, we categorized each team's attacking and defensive attributes, as well as their unbeaten rate (percentage of wins or draws) against other participating teams since the previous European Championship. We divided them into 6 categories from highest to lowest, giving them a score of 6 to 1, and finally summed them up to get the total score of each team. The results show that Spain, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium are relatively stronger, while Denmark, Austria, and Croatia have dark horse potential. The high premium offered by bookmakers for England seems to contradict our assessment of their strength. However, strength is only one part; uncertainty and chance are also eternal melodies in the world of football.4. Unexpected Result: Simulation results showed that due to factors such as group division and mutual restraint, the Italian team, with its weaker book strength, had the best chance of winning the championship.The competition for the championship is not determined by a single level of strength; strength is simply the winning percentage. Based on the grouping format, we used the Monte Carlo algorithm to conduct 10,000 simulations with reference to the historical records of each participating team, their current strength rankings, and the win rate between historical styles as the basis for the probability of winning or losing. The results showed that only the Italian team, which is not favored on paper, is most likely to lift the Delano Cup, while the strong Spanish team has the second highest probability of winning the championship. Among the teams most likely to enter the semi-finals, Portugal and France occupy the other two spots. Austria, Türkiye, and Scotland also have a 20% or higher chance of reaching the semi-finals, making them potential dark horses. An interesting phenomenon is that, according to our predictions, the value (defensive) style is expected to make a long-awaited return in this European Championship, whether it is a championship candidate or a dark horse.1. The Phantom of Football: The Influence of the European Championship IndustryTo celebrate the 60th anniversary of the European Championship, allow more countries to participate in the European Championship, and take into account the needs of epidemic prevention and control, this year's European Championship has been modified to be held in cities in 11 different countries compared to previous years when it was hosted by one or two countries. Although spectators are allowed to enter, attendance is strictly controlled, which will result in a significant decline in ticket revenue compared to previous years. However, despite numerous differences and limitations, the enormous economic benefits brought about by this European Championship (compared to ticket revenue, the economic benefits from television broadcasting and advertising sponsorships account for a higher proportion, and the latter is less affected by epidemic prevention and control) are still expected to increase and will be shared by multiple countries, and the current severe political and economic situation in Europe is expected to be alleviated to some extent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6046a05cd10d6a2a529976670b9b68\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49adc01b32f7d59d274e51df61e81e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Past events of the European Championship2.1 European Championship Past Events: The European Championship Through the Eyes of a Strategy ResearcherWe will first categorize the 24 national teams that qualified for the 2020 European Championship finals according to their current market value.Large-cap, mid-cap and small-capBased on the attribute values of each team's participating players in FIFA 21, and the relative strength of their offensive and defensive attributes, each team is divided into...Growth and ValueThere are two styles, thus completing the main style division of each participating team. We found that among the well-known top teams, only...Italy and EnglandIt is a market value style, which is known for its defensive strengths, andFor some small and medium-sized teams, the value style dominates, namely, focusing on defense and waiting for opportunities to launch counter-attacks is their common winning strategy.。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9bf85201b1ef8117f396779f14cf493\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2.2 The Past of the European Championship: Eternal Growth, the Value of AttackingIn the world of football, when a team develops a certain football style, this style is often passed down from generation to generation of players, such as Germany's \"iron-blooded\" style, Italy's \"defensive\" style, and the Netherlands' \"all-out attack and defense\" style.After we completed the alternative style division of each participating team, growth was the eternal theme of the European Championship, and market growth always seemed to dominate. But football is round: in the history of the European Championship, Italy, a defensive and counter-attacking powerhouse with a \"large-cap value\" style, has won the championship, while Denmark, a dark horse with a \"small-to-mid-cap growth\" style, and Greece, a \"small-to-mid-cap value\" team, have won the championship. The charm of football may lie in its uncertainty itself.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b9be91f89b289a88e09868cc7f5884\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2.3 The Past of the European Championship: A Historical Clash Between Different StylesWe then analyzed the dialogue between various styles in the history of the European Championship and discovered the following interesting phenomena:<ul><li>Although the dialogue between growth and value-based powerhouses is mostly a draw, in terms of winning percentage...Teams with a large-cap growth style seem to find it difficult to gain an advantage over opponents with a large-cap value style.Its consistent ability to \"dominate weaker teams\" (giving it an absolute advantage over small and medium-sized teams) is the main support for its excellent performance in the European Championship.However, large-cap value teams have a lower chance of winning against small- and mid-cap growth teams, making them more likely to draw and be dragged into penalty shootouts, increasing the chances of a \"stumble\".。</li><li>Whether it's a large-cap growth team or a large-cap value team, when facing small- to mid-cap teams...Its suppressive effect on growth styles is far less than that on value styles.This also means that for wealthy families,Small and medium-sized teams that excel in attack are often more troublesome and prone to upsets.； When facing small and medium-sized teams with a value-oriented style,Top teams, with their strong game control and outstanding individual abilities, are often able to find defensive weaknesses in smaller and medium-sized teams through continuous probing, thereby achieving victory.。</li><li>Teams with a mid-cap growth style have not yet lost to mid-cap value teams, while mid-cap value teams currently maintain a 100% win rate against small-cap value teams. However, mid-cap value teams have maintained a 100% win rate against small-cap value teams, indicating significant pressure. Small-cap value teams also have a 100% win rate against small-cap growth teams. Surprisingly, small-cap growth teams have yet to lose against mid-cap growth teams, with a win rate as high as 71%. Such a clear style contradiction is astonishing.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e96317bf9f840e7bd9b94d73de65c40\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd35f1f69d22410028e506ccdb086b55\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. European Championship Today: Current Strength Rankings of Participating TeamsIn the last European Championship (2016), Portugal stumbled throughout the tournament, defeating host France with a last-minute goal in the final to win the Delaunay Trophy for the first time in history, showing its dark horse potential. Cristiano Ronaldo was named the best player of the tournament, and the butterfly finally flew across the vast ocean. Times have changed. For this European Championship, we categorized each team's attacking and defensive attributes, as well as their unbeaten rate against other participating teams since the last European Championship (percentage of wins or draws). We divided them into 6 categories from highest to lowest, giving them a score of 6 to 1, and finally summed them up to get the total score of each team. The results show that Spain, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium are relatively stronger, while Denmark, Austria, and Croatia have dark horse potential. The high premium offered by bookmakers for England seems to contradict our assessment of their strength.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0378fb35c4c5207ee47227c00c99b9a\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fe8c2491c510b0b7e82b0916d6e9c6\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. Euro 2016 Predictions4.1 European Championship Predictions: Not Just Timing, Value ReturnsThe competition for the championship is not determined solely by strength; strength is simply the winning percentage. Based on the group format, and referring to the historical records of each participating team, winning percentages between styles, and current strength rankings as the probability of winning or losing, we conducted 10,000 simulations using the Monte Carlo algorithm. The results showed that compared to France and England, which are considered favorites, the model seemed to...Italy and SpainThey are even more optimistic, with the probability of winning the championship all exceeding 20%. Among the teams that reach the semi-finals, Portugal, Spain, France and Italy have a far higher probability. Austria, Türkiye, and Scotland also have a probability of reaching the semi-finals of over 20%, even surpassing powerhouses England, the Netherlands, and Belgium, making them potential dark horses. An interesting phenomenon is that, according to our predictions,In this European Championship, whether it's a title candidate or a dark horse, the value (defensive) style is expected to make a long-awaited return.。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1de4611d75e38d26b8fec3722422102f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.2 European Championship Predictions: The Road to the Birth of a LegendWe then present the most likely route to the top 16 in our predictions: the quarterfinals are Belgium, Italy, France, Scotland, Spain, Germany, Portugal, and Türkiye; The semi-finalists are Italy, France, Spain, and Türkiye, with Italy as the champion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4a182b0e9c0e5cc367fabea15b63f88\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5. Risk WarningPredictions are based on historical data, and football matches are subject to considerable uncertainty; therefore, the prediction results are for reference only.","source":"lsy1597136054223","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to predict the European Championship using stock strategies: Teams are also divided into large, medium, and small odds.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to predict the European Championship using stock strategies: Teams are also divided into large, medium, and small odds.\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n一凌策略研究2021-06-16 12:36\n\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\nCore Points1. The History of the European Championship Through the Eyes of a Strategy Researcher: The Cycle of Growth and ValueThe European Championship, which was postponed due to the pandemic, will officially kick off in the early hours of June 12th Beijing time. It is a feast for football fans around the world, and the biggest question mark at the moment is who will win the Delano Cup. We first divided the 24 national teams that qualified for the 2020 European Championship finals into large, medium, and small odds based on their current market value. Then, based on the attribute values of each team's participating players in FIFA 21 and the relative strength of their offensive and defensive attributes, we divided each team into two styles: growth and value. Looking back at historical records, we find that growth (attack) is the eternal theme of the European Championship, and large-cap growth (strong offensive teams) always seem to dominate. However, football is round. In the history of the European Championship, Italy, a defensive and counter-attacking powerhouse with a \"large-cap value\" style, has won the championship, while Denmark, a dark horse with a \"small-to-mid-cap growth\" style, and Greece, a \"small-to-mid-cap value\" team, have won the championship. The charm of football may lie in its uncertainty itself.2. Historical patterns: The mutual benefit and restraint between growth/value and large-cap/small-cap stocks.By statistically analyzing the dialogue between various styles in the history of the European Championship, it can be found that: (1) large-cap growth style teams seem to find it difficult to gain an advantage over large-cap value style opponents, and their restraint against small and medium-cap style teams is the main support for their excellent performance in the European Championship; (2) Whether it is a large-cap growth team or a large-cap value team, when facing small and medium-cap teams, the suppression of growth styles is far less than that of value styles. For powerhouses, small and medium-cap teams that are good at attacking are often more troublesome. When facing value-oriented small and medium-sized teams, top teams are often able to find defensive weaknesses in these teams through continuous probing, thereby achieving victory. (3) Mid-cap growth teams have not yet lost to mid-cap value teams, while mid-cap value teams currently maintain a 100% win rate against small-cap value teams. The success rate of small-cap value for small-cap growth is also as high as 100%; Small-cap growth teams have yet to lose against mid-cap growth teams, with a winning percentage as high as 71%. Such a fateful contrast in style between small and mid-odd teams is surprising.3. Book Strength Review: Large-cap growth stocks (aggressive giants) have an advantage, but strength is not everything.For this European Championship, we categorized each team's attacking and defensive attributes, as well as their unbeaten rate (percentage of wins or draws) against other participating teams since the previous European Championship. We divided them into 6 categories from highest to lowest, giving them a score of 6 to 1, and finally summed them up to get the total score of each team. The results show that Spain, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium are relatively stronger, while Denmark, Austria, and Croatia have dark horse potential. The high premium offered by bookmakers for England seems to contradict our assessment of their strength. However, strength is only one part; uncertainty and chance are also eternal melodies in the world of football.4. Unexpected Result: Simulation results showed that due to factors such as group division and mutual restraint, the Italian team, with its weaker book strength, had the best chance of winning the championship.The competition for the championship is not determined by a single level of strength; strength is simply the winning percentage. Based on the grouping format, we used the Monte Carlo algorithm to conduct 10,000 simulations with reference to the historical records of each participating team, their current strength rankings, and the win rate between historical styles as the basis for the probability of winning or losing. The results showed that only the Italian team, which is not favored on paper, is most likely to lift the Delano Cup, while the strong Spanish team has the second highest probability of winning the championship. Among the teams most likely to enter the semi-finals, Portugal and France occupy the other two spots. Austria, Türkiye, and Scotland also have a 20% or higher chance of reaching the semi-finals, making them potential dark horses. An interesting phenomenon is that, according to our predictions, the value (defensive) style is expected to make a long-awaited return in this European Championship, whether it is a championship candidate or a dark horse.1. The Phantom of Football: The Influence of the European Championship IndustryTo celebrate the 60th anniversary of the European Championship, allow more countries to participate in the European Championship, and take into account the needs of epidemic prevention and control, this year's European Championship has been modified to be held in cities in 11 different countries compared to previous years when it was hosted by one or two countries. Although spectators are allowed to enter, attendance is strictly controlled, which will result in a significant decline in ticket revenue compared to previous years. However, despite numerous differences and limitations, the enormous economic benefits brought about by this European Championship (compared to ticket revenue, the economic benefits from television broadcasting and advertising sponsorships account for a higher proportion, and the latter is less affected by epidemic prevention and control) are still expected to increase and will be shared by multiple countries, and the current severe political and economic situation in Europe is expected to be alleviated to some extent.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea6046a05cd10d6a2a529976670b9b68\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"716\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49adc01b32f7d59d274e51df61e81e0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2. Past events of the European Championship2.1 European Championship Past Events: The European Championship Through the Eyes of a Strategy ResearcherWe will first categorize the 24 national teams that qualified for the 2020 European Championship finals according to their current market value.Large-cap, mid-cap and small-capBased on the attribute values of each team's participating players in FIFA 21, and the relative strength of their offensive and defensive attributes, each team is divided into...Growth and ValueThere are two styles, thus completing the main style division of each participating team. We found that among the well-known top teams, only...Italy and EnglandIt is a market value style, which is known for its defensive strengths, andFor some small and medium-sized teams, the value style dominates, namely, focusing on defense and waiting for opportunities to launch counter-attacks is their common winning strategy.。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9bf85201b1ef8117f396779f14cf493\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"715\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2.2 The Past of the European Championship: Eternal Growth, the Value of AttackingIn the world of football, when a team develops a certain football style, this style is often passed down from generation to generation of players, such as Germany's \"iron-blooded\" style, Italy's \"defensive\" style, and the Netherlands' \"all-out attack and defense\" style.After we completed the alternative style division of each participating team, growth was the eternal theme of the European Championship, and market growth always seemed to dominate. But football is round: in the history of the European Championship, Italy, a defensive and counter-attacking powerhouse with a \"large-cap value\" style, has won the championship, while Denmark, a dark horse with a \"small-to-mid-cap growth\" style, and Greece, a \"small-to-mid-cap value\" team, have won the championship. The charm of football may lie in its uncertainty itself.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93b9be91f89b289a88e09868cc7f5884\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">2.3 The Past of the European Championship: A Historical Clash Between Different StylesWe then analyzed the dialogue between various styles in the history of the European Championship and discovered the following interesting phenomena:<ul><li>Although the dialogue between growth and value-based powerhouses is mostly a draw, in terms of winning percentage...Teams with a large-cap growth style seem to find it difficult to gain an advantage over opponents with a large-cap value style.Its consistent ability to \"dominate weaker teams\" (giving it an absolute advantage over small and medium-sized teams) is the main support for its excellent performance in the European Championship.However, large-cap value teams have a lower chance of winning against small- and mid-cap growth teams, making them more likely to draw and be dragged into penalty shootouts, increasing the chances of a \"stumble\".。</li><li>Whether it's a large-cap growth team or a large-cap value team, when facing small- to mid-cap teams...Its suppressive effect on growth styles is far less than that on value styles.This also means that for wealthy families,Small and medium-sized teams that excel in attack are often more troublesome and prone to upsets.； When facing small and medium-sized teams with a value-oriented style,Top teams, with their strong game control and outstanding individual abilities, are often able to find defensive weaknesses in smaller and medium-sized teams through continuous probing, thereby achieving victory.。</li><li>Teams with a mid-cap growth style have not yet lost to mid-cap value teams, while mid-cap value teams currently maintain a 100% win rate against small-cap value teams. However, mid-cap value teams have maintained a 100% win rate against small-cap value teams, indicating significant pressure. Small-cap value teams also have a 100% win rate against small-cap growth teams. Surprisingly, small-cap growth teams have yet to lose against mid-cap growth teams, with a win rate as high as 71%. Such a clear style contradiction is astonishing.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e96317bf9f840e7bd9b94d73de65c40\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd35f1f69d22410028e506ccdb086b55\" tg-width=\"823\" tg-height=\"454\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">3. European Championship Today: Current Strength Rankings of Participating TeamsIn the last European Championship (2016), Portugal stumbled throughout the tournament, defeating host France with a last-minute goal in the final to win the Delaunay Trophy for the first time in history, showing its dark horse potential. Cristiano Ronaldo was named the best player of the tournament, and the butterfly finally flew across the vast ocean. Times have changed. For this European Championship, we categorized each team's attacking and defensive attributes, as well as their unbeaten rate against other participating teams since the last European Championship (percentage of wins or draws). We divided them into 6 categories from highest to lowest, giving them a score of 6 to 1, and finally summed them up to get the total score of each team. The results show that Spain, France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium are relatively stronger, while Denmark, Austria, and Croatia have dark horse potential. The high premium offered by bookmakers for England seems to contradict our assessment of their strength.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0378fb35c4c5207ee47227c00c99b9a\" tg-width=\"809\" tg-height=\"812\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31fe8c2491c510b0b7e82b0916d6e9c6\" tg-width=\"855\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4. Euro 2016 Predictions4.1 European Championship Predictions: Not Just Timing, Value ReturnsThe competition for the championship is not determined solely by strength; strength is simply the winning percentage. Based on the group format, and referring to the historical records of each participating team, winning percentages between styles, and current strength rankings as the probability of winning or losing, we conducted 10,000 simulations using the Monte Carlo algorithm. The results showed that compared to France and England, which are considered favorites, the model seemed to...Italy and SpainThey are even more optimistic, with the probability of winning the championship all exceeding 20%. Among the teams that reach the semi-finals, Portugal, Spain, France and Italy have a far higher probability. Austria, Türkiye, and Scotland also have a probability of reaching the semi-finals of over 20%, even surpassing powerhouses England, the Netherlands, and Belgium, making them potential dark horses. An interesting phenomenon is that, according to our predictions,In this European Championship, whether it's a title candidate or a dark horse, the value (defensive) style is expected to make a long-awaited return.。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1de4611d75e38d26b8fec3722422102f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">4.2 European Championship Predictions: The Road to the Birth of a LegendWe then present the most likely route to the top 16 in our predictions: the quarterfinals are Belgium, Italy, France, Scotland, Spain, Germany, Portugal, and Türkiye; The semi-finalists are Italy, France, Spain, and Türkiye, with Italy as the champion.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4a182b0e9c0e5cc367fabea15b63f88\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">5. Risk WarningPredictions are based on historical data, and football matches are subject to considerable uncertainty; therefore, the prediction results are for reference only.\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n source：<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI2MDkzOTc3Nw==&mid=2247497832&idx=1&sn=76757893f1c4c257c1e132833857f026&chksm=ea60b106dd1738104b091bd07ad5c0fb1162194cdc1ca9435f37314aa41c03e4fe174eb469f6&scene=126&&sessionid=1623406425\">一凌策略研究</a>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d5573b681a3f625a02cfcfda9e1d5d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI2MDkzOTc3Nw==&mid=2247497832&idx=1&sn=76757893f1c4c257c1e132833857f026&chksm=ea60b106dd1738104b091bd07ad5c0fb1162194cdc1ca9435f37314aa41c03e4fe174eb469f6&scene=126&&sessionid=1623406425","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159413534","content_text":"核心观点\n1、策略研究员眼中的欧洲杯历史：成长与价值的轮回\n受疫情原因延后的欧洲杯将于北京时间6月12日凌晨正式开赛，这是一场全球足球迷的盛宴，德劳诺杯花落谁家也是当下最大的问号。我们将入围2020年欧洲杯正赛的24支国家队首先按当前的身价大小划分为大盘、中盘与小盘，并按照各队参赛球员在FIFA21中的属性值，依据进攻与防守属性的相对强弱将各队划分为成长与价值两种风格。通过历史战绩的回顾，我们发现：成长（进攻）是欧洲杯永远的主题，大盘成长（进攻型强队）似乎总是主导。但是足球是圆的，欧洲杯历史上有“大盘价值”风格的防守反击型豪门意大利夺冠，也有“中小盘成长”的黑马丹麦与“中小盘价值”的希腊夺得冠军。足球的魅力或许就在于不确定性本身。\n2、历史规律：成长/价值和大盘/小盘之间的相生相克\n通过统计欧洲杯历史上各种风格之间的彼此对话，可以发现：（1）大盘成长风格的球队似乎很难在大盘价值风格的对手上占到便宜，而其对中小盘风格球队的克制是其在欧洲杯上优异的成绩主要支撑；（2）无论是大盘成长还是大盘价值风格的球队，在面对中小盘风格球队之时，对于成长风格的压制力远逊于对于价值风格的压制，对于豪门而言，擅长进攻的中小球队往往更为棘手；而在面对价值风格的中小球队时，豪门往往能够在不断试探中寻觅到中小球队的防守漏洞，从而获得胜利；（3）中盘成长风格的球队对中盘价值风格目前尚未尝负，而中盘价值对小盘价值目前维持着100%胜率；而小盘价值对小盘成长胜率同样高达100%；小盘成长风格的球队对阵中盘成长风格的球队之时，目前尚未一败，胜率高达71%。中小盘球队之间的如此宿命般的风格相克令人惊讶。\n3、账面实力盘点：大盘成长（进攻型豪门）更胜一筹，然而实力并不是一切\n对于本次欧洲杯，我们对各队进攻、防守属性以及上一届欧洲杯后的各队面对其他参赛队伍的不败率（胜利或平局的场次占比）进行分档，由高到低分为6档，给予6至1的评分，最后汇总得到各队的总评分。从结果上看，西班牙、法国、荷兰、德国与比利时的实力相对更胜一筹，而丹麦、奥地利、克罗地亚具备黑马潜力。博彩公司对于英格兰给出的高溢价，似乎与我们的实力测算相悖。然而，实力仅仅只是一部分，足球世界里的不确定性与偶然性同样是永恒的旋律。\n4、意外的结果：模拟结果显示由于分组和相互克制等因素，账面实力不佳的意大利队才最有希望夺得冠军\n冠军的角逐并不是由单一实力高低决定，实力只是胜率。我们根据分组形式，参照各支参赛队伍之间的历史战绩、当前的实力排名和历史风格之间胜率作为胜负概率依据，采用蒙特卡洛算法进行10000次模拟，结果显示：账面数据并不热门的意大利队才最有可能捧起德劳诺杯，实力强劲的西班牙夺冠概率位居第二，而在最有可能进入四强的队伍中，葡萄牙与法国占据另外两个席位；而奥地利、土耳其、苏格兰进入四强的概率同样高达20%以上，有望成为黑马。一个有意思的现象是：根据我们的预测，在本届欧洲杯中，无论是冠军候选人还是黑马，价值（防守）风格有望迎来久违的回归。\n1. 足球魅影：欧洲杯产业的影响力\n为庆祝欧洲杯诞辰60周年，让更多国家参与到欧洲杯之中，同时考虑到疫情防控需求，相较于往届由单一或两个左右的国家承办，本届欧洲杯修改为在11座不同国家的城市中进行，并且尽管有观众可以入场，但是严格控制了上座率，这将使得门票收入相较往届出现大幅下滑。然而尽管存在诸多不同与各种限制，本届欧洲杯所带来的巨大经济效益（相较于门票收入，电视转播、广告赞助等经济效益占比更高，而后者并受疫情防控影响较小）却依然有望有增无减，并且将被多个国家所分享，当前欧洲严峻的政治与经济形势有望得以一定缓和。\n\n\n2. 欧洲杯往事\n2.1 欧洲杯往事：策略研究员眼中的欧洲杯\n我们将入围2020年欧洲杯正赛的24支国家队首先按当前的身价大小划分为大盘、中盘与小盘，并按照各队参赛球员在FIFA21中的属性值，依据进攻与防守属性的相对强弱将各队划分为成长与价值两种风格，至此完成对各支参赛球队的主要风格划分。我们发现，在大家熟知的豪门球队之中，仅有意大利与英格兰为大盘价值风格，即以防守见长，而对于一些中小球队而言，价值风格占据多数，即立足于防守，伺机打反击是他们常用的赢球策略。\n\n2.2欧洲杯往事：永恒的成长，进击的价值\n足球世界里，当球队形成某一种足球风格时，这种风格往往会在一代又一代的球员之中进行传承，比如德国的“铁血”，意大利的“防守”，荷兰的“全攻全守”。\n我们在完成对各个参赛队伍的另类风格划分后，成长是欧洲杯永远的主题，大盘成长似乎总是主导。但是足球是圆的：欧洲杯历史上有“大盘价值”风格的防守反击型豪门意大利夺冠，也有“中小盘成长”的黑马丹麦与“中小盘价值”的希腊夺得冠军。足球的魅力或许就在于不确定性本身。\n\n2.3 欧洲杯往事：不同风格间的历史碰撞\n我们接着统计了欧洲杯历史上各种风格之间的彼此对话，发现了以下几个有趣的现象：\n\n成长与价值风格的豪门对话虽然平局居多，然而从胜率看，大盘成长风格的球队似乎很难在大盘价值风格的对手上占到便宜，而其稳定的“虐菜”能力（对中小盘风格球队占据绝对的优势）是其在欧洲杯上优异的成绩主要支撑。而大盘价值风格的球队对中小盘成长风格的球队胜率却并不高，容易打平被拖入点球大战，加大了“翻车”几率。\n无论是大盘成长还是大盘价值风格的球队，在面对中小盘风格球队之时，对于成长风格的压制力远逊于对于价值风格，这也意味着对于豪门而言，擅长进攻的中小球队往往更为棘手，容易被爆冷；而在面对价值风格的中小球队时，豪门强大的场面控制力与出色的个人能力往往能够在不断试探中寻觅到中小球队的防守漏洞，从而获得胜利。\n中盘成长风格的球队对中盘价值风格目前尚未尝负，而中盘价值对小盘价值目前维持着100%胜率，然而中盘价值对小盘价值却至今保持100%胜率，存在明显压制；而小盘价值对小盘成长胜率同样高达100%，令人意外的是，小盘成长风格的球队对阵中盘成长风格的球队之时，目前尚未一败，胜率高达71%，存在如此明显的风格相克现象令人惊讶。\n\n\n\n\n3. 欧洲杯今谈：当前参赛队伍的实力排名\n\n在上一届欧洲杯（2016年）中，葡萄牙一路跌跌撞撞，决赛一球绝杀东道主法国，历史首捧德劳内杯，尽显黑马本色，克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多当选赛事最佳球员，蝴蝶终于飞过沧海。时过境迁，对于本次欧洲杯，我们对各队进攻、防守属性以及上一届欧洲杯后的各队面对其他参赛队伍的不败率（胜利或平局的场次占比）进行分档，由高到低分为6档，给予6至1的评分，最后汇总得到各队的总评分。从结果上看，西班牙、法国、荷兰、德国与比利时的实力相对更胜一筹，而丹麦、奥地利、克罗地亚具备黑马潜力。博彩公司对于英格兰给出的高溢价，似乎与我们的实力测算相悖。\n\n\n4. 欧洲杯预测\n4.1 欧洲杯预测：非惟天时，价值回归\n冠军的角逐并不是由单一实力高低决定，实力只是胜率我们根据分组形式，参照各支参赛队伍之间的历史战绩、风格之间胜率和当前的实力排名作为胜负概率依据，采用蒙特卡洛算法进行10000次模拟，结果显示：与呼声较高的法国、英格兰相比，模型似乎对意大利与西班牙更为看好，夺冠概率均超过20%，而在进入四强的队伍中，葡萄牙、西班牙、法国与意大利的概率遥遥领先；而奥地利、土耳其、苏格兰进入四强的概率同样高达20%以上，甚至超过豪门英格兰、荷兰与比利时，有望成为黑马。一个有意思的现象是：根据我们的预测，在本届欧洲杯中，无论是冠军候选人还是黑马，价值（防守）风格有望迎来久违的回归。\n\n4.2 欧洲杯预测：传奇诞生之路\n我们接着给出预测中最有可能的16强晋级路线，八强为比利时、意大利、法国、苏格兰、西班牙、德国、葡萄牙、土耳其；四强为意大利、法国、西班牙与土耳其，冠军为意大利。\n\n5. 风险提示\n预测基于历史数据预测，而足球比赛存在较大不确定性，因此预测结果仅供参考。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5835,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1,"subscribersOnly":false,"subscribersOnlyAccessible":false,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":4812996,"commentId":"4812996","gmtCreate":1623852399339,"gmtModify":1663229037440,"authorId":3583591142382890,"author":{"id":3583591142382890,"idStr":"3583591142382890","authorId":3583591142382890,"name":"Leong11","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86aaf63c6f1ea2ca2e259800c40ba99b","vip":1,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"wearingBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":169775986,"objectIdStr":"169775986","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"好","text":"好","html":"好","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"invalid","coins":0,"score":0,"disclaimerType":0}],"hasMoreComment":true,"orderType":2}