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hao5215
2021-07-22

As soon as October! The Biden administration will be deep in fiscal cliff crisis

如果国会一直不提高债务上限，可能最快今年秋季，拜登政府就会上任后首次面临财政悬崖的威胁。为美国国会提供预算和经济信息的国会预算办公室（CBO）最新预计，美国财政部可能在今年10月或者11月用尽所有避

As soon as October! The Biden administration will be deep in fiscal cliff crisis

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CMChai100
·2021-07-22
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·2021-07-22
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{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"data":{"magic":2,"id":176490866,"tweetId":"176490866","gmtCreate":1626910985055,"gmtModify":1703480283754,"author":{"id":4088723072309820,"idStr":"4088723072309820","authorId":4088723072309820,"authorIdStr":"4088723072309820","name":"hao5215","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f32cc47e2d0886510e4015db92c09943","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>??</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>??</p></body></html>","text":"??","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/176490866","repostId":2153324647,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153324647","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1626937403,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153324647?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"As soon as October! The Biden administration will be deep in fiscal cliff crisis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153324647","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"如果国会一直不提高债务上限，可能最快今年秋季，拜登政府就会上任后首次面临财政悬崖的威胁。\n为美国国会提供预算和经济信息的国会预算办公室（CBO）最新预计，美国财政部可能在今年10月或者11月用尽所有避","content":"<p>If Congress keeps not raising the debt ceiling, the Biden administration may face the threat of a fiscal cliff for the first time since taking office as soon as this fall.</p><p>The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which provides budget and economic information to the U.S. Congress, recently predicts that the U.S. Treasury Department may exhaust all means to avoid the debt ceiling in October or November this year.</p><p>The CBO forecast shows the deadline the Biden administration must address issues raised by the expiration of the debt ceiling forgiveness.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>The chart below shows the recent forecast of the Bipartisan Policy Center, which shows that under a pessimistic scenario, assuming that federal spending grows more than expected, or the recovery slows and government revenue is insufficient, the Treasury Department runs out of unconventional means and runs out of cash on hand. The \"X date\" may be brought forward to October. In an optimistic scenario, assuming economic growth exceeds expectations and tax revenue in September is higher than expected, the \"X date\" may be postponed until after December.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add670b699756bffb4f9c019d5b53bfb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Debt default possible as early as August</p><p>During the Trump administration, the U.S. Congress reached a solution not to raise the debt ceiling for the time being. In August 2019, it passed the \"Bipartisan Budget Act\", suspending the debt ceiling for two years and allowing the government to borrow without a ceiling during this period. This debt ceiling suspension will expire on July 31 this year.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Bond has good credit and low risk, and there is almost no default caused by lack of solvency. However, when the U.S. federal government is currently burdened with more than $28 trillion in debt, which is already higher than the debt ceiling, if the statutory limit of the debt ceiling is restored and Congress cannot raise the debt ceiling, the U.S. may have a technical debt default as early as August, and it is difficult for the Treasury Department to borrow money to pay for government operating expenses.</p><p>This is also the reason why US Treasury Secretary Yellen issued a warning last month. She said at the time that it is still at a critical moment in recovering from the epidemic. If Congress does not take action and allows the United States to default on its debt, the results will be catastrophic.</p><p>Democrats in Congress have not yet formulated any plans to raise the debt ceiling, nor have they decided whether to add debt ceiling measures to the budget bill that enters the fast track of approval.</p><p>In order to avoid a default immediately after the debt ceiling takes effect, the U.S. Treasury Department can take \"unconventional measures\" to buy a few months to raise the debt ceiling. One of the important is to use the cash balance in the cash account TGA of the Ministry of Finance to repay the principal and interest to creditors.</p><p><h2>The U.S. finance is afraid of \"flooding\" of $250 billion in ten days</h2>Markets are now increasingly worried about the threat posed to money markets by the unresolved debt ceiling issue.</p><p>A previous article on Wall Street Journal mentioned that because it is suspected of deliberately evading the debt ceiling, the Ministry of Finance cannot increase the TGA account balance before the debt ceiling takes effect, so it can only reduce the account balance. Funds flow out of TGA accounts to pay for various welfare plans, and funds also enter the money market and banking system, creating a large demand for short-term bills, giving birth to active trading in the overnight lending market, and pushing down U.S. short-term debt interest rates.</p><p>The Treasury Department aims to reduce TGA account balances to $450 billion by July 31. As of July 16, the balance of the TGA account was as high as $698 billion, which means that the U.S. Treasury Department needs to \"flood discharge\" up to $250 billion within ten days. This means that short-term Treasury Bond yields in the United States will continue to be suppressed at low levels.</p><p>As the Federal Reserve made a technical adjustment in June that seemed to be a disguised \"rate hike\", it raised the two major managed interest rates that control the upper and lower limits of the policy interest rate range-the excess reserve rate (IOER) and the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON RRP). The funds lying on the account of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase may exceed a trillion-dollar high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a4905ab18968a13f59225f3693eee12\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The media pointed out that the most effective way to reduce the balance of TGA is to further reduce the scale of the auction of Treasury Bond in the United States. The risk of this move is that it will intensify the supply-demand imbalance that has already suppressed long-term yields, thus threatening the Federal Reserve's control of key interest rate indicators.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Teresa Ho, a strategist at the Fed, said the market is very uncertain about the future path of changes in the Fed's TGA balance. \"This is the number one question customers ask us.\" Clients want to know what extraordinary measures the Treasury Department has in place, and whether Congress will raise or suspend the debt ceiling again, and when it will act.</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>As soon as October! The Biden administration will be deep in fiscal cliff crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAs soon as October! The Biden administration will be deep in fiscal cliff crisis\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">华尔街见闻</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 15:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>If Congress keeps not raising the debt ceiling, the Biden administration may face the threat of a fiscal cliff for the first time since taking office as soon as this fall.</p><p>The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), which provides budget and economic information to the U.S. Congress, recently predicts that the U.S. Treasury Department may exhaust all means to avoid the debt ceiling in October or November this year.</p><p>The CBO forecast shows the deadline the Biden administration must address issues raised by the expiration of the debt ceiling forgiveness.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600918\">Zhongtai Securities</a>The chart below shows the recent forecast of the Bipartisan Policy Center, which shows that under a pessimistic scenario, assuming that federal spending grows more than expected, or the recovery slows and government revenue is insufficient, the Treasury Department runs out of unconventional means and runs out of cash on hand. The \"X date\" may be brought forward to October. In an optimistic scenario, assuming economic growth exceeds expectations and tax revenue in September is higher than expected, the \"X date\" may be postponed until after December.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/add670b699756bffb4f9c019d5b53bfb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"730\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Debt default possible as early as August</p><p>During the Trump administration, the U.S. Congress reached a solution not to raise the debt ceiling for the time being. In August 2019, it passed the \"Bipartisan Budget Act\", suspending the debt ceiling for two years and allowing the government to borrow without a ceiling during this period. This debt ceiling suspension will expire on July 31 this year.</p><p>The U.S. Treasury Bond has good credit and low risk, and there is almost no default caused by lack of solvency. However, when the U.S. federal government is currently burdened with more than $28 trillion in debt, which is already higher than the debt ceiling, if the statutory limit of the debt ceiling is restored and Congress cannot raise the debt ceiling, the U.S. may have a technical debt default as early as August, and it is difficult for the Treasury Department to borrow money to pay for government operating expenses.</p><p>This is also the reason why US Treasury Secretary Yellen issued a warning last month. She said at the time that it is still at a critical moment in recovering from the epidemic. If Congress does not take action and allows the United States to default on its debt, the results will be catastrophic.</p><p>Democrats in Congress have not yet formulated any plans to raise the debt ceiling, nor have they decided whether to add debt ceiling measures to the budget bill that enters the fast track of approval.</p><p>In order to avoid a default immediately after the debt ceiling takes effect, the U.S. Treasury Department can take \"unconventional measures\" to buy a few months to raise the debt ceiling. One of the important is to use the cash balance in the cash account TGA of the Ministry of Finance to repay the principal and interest to creditors.</p><p><h2>The U.S. finance is afraid of \"flooding\" of $250 billion in ten days</h2>Markets are now increasingly worried about the threat posed to money markets by the unresolved debt ceiling issue.</p><p>A previous article on Wall Street Journal mentioned that because it is suspected of deliberately evading the debt ceiling, the Ministry of Finance cannot increase the TGA account balance before the debt ceiling takes effect, so it can only reduce the account balance. Funds flow out of TGA accounts to pay for various welfare plans, and funds also enter the money market and banking system, creating a large demand for short-term bills, giving birth to active trading in the overnight lending market, and pushing down U.S. short-term debt interest rates.</p><p>The Treasury Department aims to reduce TGA account balances to $450 billion by July 31. As of July 16, the balance of the TGA account was as high as $698 billion, which means that the U.S. Treasury Department needs to \"flood discharge\" up to $250 billion within ten days. This means that short-term Treasury Bond yields in the United States will continue to be suppressed at low levels.</p><p>As the Federal Reserve made a technical adjustment in June that seemed to be a disguised \"rate hike\", it raised the two major managed interest rates that control the upper and lower limits of the policy interest rate range-the excess reserve rate (IOER) and the overnight reverse repurchase rate (ON RRP). The funds lying on the account of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase may exceed a trillion-dollar high.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a4905ab18968a13f59225f3693eee12\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The media pointed out that the most effective way to reduce the balance of TGA is to further reduce the scale of the auction of Treasury Bond in the United States. The risk of this move is that it will intensify the supply-demand imbalance that has already suppressed long-term yields, thus threatening the Federal Reserve's control of key interest rate indicators.</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>Teresa Ho, a strategist at the Fed, said the market is very uncertain about the future path of changes in the Fed's TGA balance. \"This is the number one question customers ask us.\" Clients want to know what extraordinary measures the Treasury Department has in place, and whether Congress will raise or suspend the debt ceiling again, and when it will act.</p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> source：<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636020\">华尔街见闻</a></p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be1f2064b1def89283b4efa9b8ac4586","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636020","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153324647","content_text":"如果国会一直不提高债务上限，可能最快今年秋季，拜登政府就会上任后首次面临财政悬崖的威胁。\n为美国国会提供预算和经济信息的国会预算办公室（CBO）最新预计，美国财政部可能在今年10月或者11月用尽所有避免债务上限的手段。\nCBO的预测展示了拜登政府必须解决债务上限豁免到期引发问题的最后期限。\n中泰证券的下图展示了两党政策中心最近的预测，其中可见，在悲观情形下，假设联邦支出增长超过预期，或者复苏放缓且政府收入不足，财政部非常规手段用尽且手头现金告罄到来的“X日期”则可能会提前至10月。乐观情形下，假设经济增长超过预期且9月税收收入高于预期，“X日期”可能会推迟至12月之后。最早可能8月债务违约\n特朗普政府时期，美国国会达成暂时不提高债务上限的解决方案，于2019年8月通过《两党预算法案》，将债务上限暂停两年，允许政府在此期间无上限借款。这一债务上限暂停将于今年7月31日到期。\n美国国债信用较好，风险较低，几乎不存在因偿债能力缺失而导致的违约。但在美国联邦政府目前背负超过28万亿美元的债务已经高于债务上限时，如果恢复债务上限的法定限制，国会又不能提高债务上限，美国最早可能8月就发生债务技术性违约，财政部难以再通过借款来支付政府运作费用。\n这也是上月美国财长耶伦发出警告的原因。她当时表示，目前仍处于在疫情打击后恢复的关键时刻，如果国会不采取行动，任由美国发生债务违约，结果是灾难性的。\n国会民主党人目前还没有制定任何上调债务上限的计划，也没有决定是否要利把债务上限的对策添加到进入批准快车道的预算议案。\n为避免债务上限生效后立即发生违约，美国财政部可以采取“非常规措施”，为上调债务上限争取几个月时间。其中重要的一种就是动用财政部现金账户TGA中的现金余额向债权人还本付息。\n美国财政恐十天“泄洪”2500亿美元\n市场现在越来越担心债务上限问题悬而未决给货币市场带来的威胁。\n华尔街见闻此前文章提到，因为有刻意规避债务上限之嫌，所以财政部在债务上限生效前不能增加TGA账户余额，那么只有减少账户余额。资金从TGA账户流出用以支付各类福利计划，资金也随之进入到货币市场和银行体系，创造出大量短期票据的需求，催生隔夜借贷市场的活跃交易，并推低美国短债利率。\n财政部的目标是在7月31日之前将TGA账户余额降低至4500亿美元。而截至7月16日，TGA账户余额还高达6980亿美元，也就是说，美国财政部需要在十几天内“泄洪”高达2500亿美元。这意味着，美国短期国债收益率将继续被压制在低位。\n由于美联储6月有过看似变相“加息”的技术性调整，上调了控制政策利率区间上下限的两大管理利率——超额准备金利率（IOER）和隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP），美联储隔夜逆回购趴在账上的资金可能突破万亿美元高位。\n媒体指出，减少TGA余额最有效的方法是进一步缩减美国国债标售的规模。此举的风险在于，它将激化本已压制长端收益率的供需失衡，进而威胁美联储对关键利率指标的掌控。\n摩根大通的策略师Teresa Ho称，市场非常不确定美联储TGA余额未来的变化路径，“这是客户问我们的头号问题”。客户想知道，财政部有哪些非常规措施，以及国会将会上调还是再次暂停债务上限，何时会行动。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SH":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9,"QID":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"TNmain":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"DJX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2433,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[{"id":5291714,"commentId":"5291714","gmtCreate":1626938246952,"gmtModify":1663231311731,"authorId":3577327897505026,"author":{"id":3577327897505026,"idStr":"3577327897505026","authorId":3577327897505026,"name":"CMChai100","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b87825ca6f540c3da0cd40e2b277a88d","vip":1,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":176490866,"objectIdStr":"176490866","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"How 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