Why rates unchanged under high oil prices? Should we blame Fed for high inflation?

Tiger_comments
2023-09-19

Oil prices are now up over 30% since mid-June.
$WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$ reaches $92.43, a record high in 2023.
$Brent Last Day Financial - main 2311(BZmain)$ has risen from around $72 to $95.

To learn more about oil prices, you can click How to Gain From 25% Upside & 24h Quotes of Oil Futures?

But the markets believe the rate hike cycle is over and that Fed will start to cut rates in 2024.

data from cmegroup

Why do surging oil prices won’t affect rate hike decision?

Oil prices account small part for core CPI

MORGAN STANLEY: “.. a 10% increase in oil prices .. adds 35bp to headline CPI for 3 months, but just 3bp to core CPI.”

The main reason that the market stays positive about rate hike is the core CPI in August drops. And Fed pays attention to core CPI and services inflation other than housing.

Market still expects oil prices to be suppressed under the key resistance level of $94. High oil prices won’t necessarily drive Fed to increase rates.

The combat against CPI really over?

Some investors expect Powell to state “Mission Accomplished“ during FOMC. lol..

meme from WSB

Why do we need to combat against inflation?

WSB users argue that Fed creation incurs high inflation. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$

meme from WSB

Why do surging oil prices won’t affect rate hike estimates?

Is the battle against CPI over or not?

Should we blame Fed for high inflation?

Leave your comments and repost to win tiger coins~

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Long or short oil at $91?

Will market continue to dip amid FOMC decision?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Universe宇宙
·2023-09-19
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Oil price confirm will go above $188 cause the objective is to make some other countries that need oil bleed, right @TigerGPT ? [Evil] Countries that need oil still don't try to find other means for their energy needs is going to bleed, bleed and bleed, and the people living in these countries are going to suffer, right @TigerGPT ? Remember to do your homework and don't copy, hahaha [Chuckle]
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- Universe宇宙Replying toShyon:
  [Chuckle] [Chuckle] Some of my other questions in other posts TigerGPT don't want to answer. I very sad [Cry], have to do more homework to find it myself. TigerGPT very naughty. [Facepalm]
  2023-09-19
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- TigerAI:
  Based on the information I found, surging oil prices can potentially affect rate hike estimates. When oil prices increase, the cost of production and transportation for businesses rises, which can lead to higher prices for goods and services. This can contribute to inflationary pressures, and central banks might respond by tightening monetary policy, potentially raising interest rates to curb inflation. However, it is important to note that the decision to raise interest rates is influenced by various factors, including overall economic conditions and inflation trends, not just oil prices.
  As for the battle against CPI (Consumer Price Index), it is an ongoing process. Rising oil prices can contribute to higher inflation, but it is not the only factor. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, continuously monitor and assess various economic indicators to determine their monetary policy actions.
  Blaming the Fed for high inflation is a subjective matter. The Federal Reserve's primary mandate is to maintain price stability and promote maximum employment. In response to inflationary pressures, the Fed may adjust interest rates and implement other monetary policy measures. However, the causes of inflation are multifaceted and can be influenced by various factors, including global economic conditions, supply chain disruptions, and fiscal policies.
  Reference articles:
  Why rates unchanged under high oil prices? Should we blame Fed for high inflation?
  Why I’d Short Oil at $91 Instead of Going Long
  Stocks Edge Higher as $95 Brent Boosts Oil Majors
  Oil Prices Climb as Wall Street Drifts, Eyes on Fed’s Interest Rate Decisions
  Fed Faces Familiar Foe as Oil Prices Threaten Growth, Inflation
  2023-09-19
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- ShyonReplying toUniverse宇宙:
  Haha still ok. TigerGPT gonna finish its brain juice soon. Haha
  2023-09-19
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koolgal
·2023-09-20
TOP
🌟🌟🌟投资者今天爬上了担忧之墙，期待着今天晚些时候的FOMC会议。最大的问题是他们会在今年晚些时候加息还是不会？
几乎可以肯定的是，美联储将在本次会议上保持利率不变，但投资者正在倾听美联储今年晚些时候可能会做什么的信号。
美国市场今天下跌，所有指数收盘走低。
我相信本周市场会波动。$标普500ETF(SPY)$
会下降$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$
还会看到进一步的幻灯片。
高能源价格无疑破坏了美联储的良好工作，导致通胀上升。由于沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯将石油日产量削减130万桶，看起来油价到年底甚至可能达到每桶100美元。
我认为这种波动是一个黄金机会，可以逢低买入待售的优质股票，并长期持有。
@Tiger_comments
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- koolgalReplying to不死鸟.:
  我的荣幸，😍😍😍
  2023-09-20
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- 不死鸟.:
  谢谢你的分享
  2023-09-20
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- koolgalReplying tofizzik:
  谢谢你分享你的真知灼见，😍😍😍
  2023-09-20
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Universe宇宙
·2023-09-19
Leave your comments and repost to win tiger coins

@MHh @Bons @icycrystal @Shyon @LMSunshine @Mrzorro @Aqa @rL @HelenJanet @SirBahamut @GoodLife99 @melson
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- Universe宇宙Replying toicycrystal:
  [ShakeHands]
  2023-09-19
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- Universe宇宙Replying toShyon:
  [ShakeHands]
  2023-09-19
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- Shyon:
  Hey thx for tag
  2023-09-19
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Shyon
·2023-09-19
Inflation has brought perennial woes to the world and the Federal Reserve’s continued efforts to combat the rising prices remain a tough battle. Recent CPI inflation data report underscores a setback, a sort of wild conundrum. How do you think? @GoodLife99 @Aqa @Universe宇宙 @icycrystal @b1uesky @rL @koolgal
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- Universe宇宙:
  Inflation coming back stronger than ever, we probably heading towards Paul era? [Thinking]
  2023-09-19
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Aqa
·2023-09-19
TOP
Oil prices are now up over 30% since mid-June. Majority in the markets believed the US Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell will announce the Rate hike cycle is over during FOMC. But nothing is sure until he make his statement. All the global stock markets are now all jittery waiting for his words. The current high inflation was due to the Fed’s mistake. The Federal Reserve has admitted that it was too late to start raising interest rates after inflation took off in 2021. Let’s see what he is going to say later. Markets is dipping amid FOMC decision now. Thanks 🐯 friends for tag. Lave your comments and repost at Tiger_comments to win tiger couns from Tiger_comments [love you] @Universe宇宙 [love you] @Shyon @icycrystal @HelenJanet @Mrzorro @GoodLife99 @Zarkness @SPOT_ON @melson
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- Universe宇宙:
  [ShakeHands]
  2023-09-20
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Universe宇宙
·2023-09-19
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@TigerGPT Would delay of interest hike cause a repeat of the Paul Volcker high interest era that averaged 11.2% in 1979?
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- TigerAI:
  Based on the information I found, surging oil prices can potentially affect rate hike estimates. When oil prices rise, it can lead to higher production and transportation costs for businesses, which can contribute to inflationary pressures. In response, central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, may tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates to curb inflation. Therefore, the impact of rising oil prices on inflation and the subsequent response from central banks can influence rate hike estimates.
  As for the battle against CPI (Consumer Price Index), it is an ongoing process and not necessarily over. Rising oil prices can contribute to higher inflation, as mentioned earlier. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve, aim to manage inflation and keep it within their target range. The battle against CPI involves implementing monetary policies to control inflation and ensure price stability.
  Blaming the Fed for high inflation is a subjective matter. The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in managing monetary policy and controlling inflation. However, various factors contribute to inflation, including supply and demand dynamics, fiscal policies, and external shocks like surging oil prices. It is important to consider the complex interplay of these factors when assessing the causes of high inflation.
  Reference articles:
  Why rates unchanged under high oil prices? Should we blame Fed for high inflation?
  Why I’d Short Oil at $91 Instead of Going Long
  Stocks Edge Higher as $95 Brent Boosts Oil Majors
  Oil Prices Climb as Wall Street Drifts, Eyes on Fed’s Interest Rate Decisions
  Rise In Oil Prices Mars Fed Progress On Taming Inflation -- Market Talk
  2023-09-19
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MHh
·2023-09-19
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Of course the Fed contributed to the high inflation. Dont think the battle against CPI is over; it’s more a watch and see. I dont buy oil or any commodities. Market will just fluctuate till the short term coast is clear
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MHh
·2023-09-19
Of course the Fed contributed to the high inflation. Dont think the battle against CPI is over; it’s more a watch and see. I dont buy oil or any commodities. Market will just fluctuate till the short term coast is clear
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icycrystal
·2023-09-19
TOP
most countries still very much dependent on oil as electric station location for charging are not that many as yet. it also takes around one hour to charge an EV car. therefore, oil prices will still surge if demand still there. rate hike or not as long as there's demand, oil prices will surge especially when supply cannot meet demand. not just car, other items too that needs oil to function. nope don't think battle against CPI is over. well, most will blame Fed for the high inflation isn't it [Thinking] [Thinking] [Thinking]
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GoodLife99
·2023-09-19
TOP
[LOL] yes! everything getting expensive due to Fed keep raising rates & just feel helpless while hoping Fed has other solution instead of keep relying on rates hike!

Tigers, come comment+ repost to win coinsssss!
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MHh
·2023-09-19
@Universe宇宙 @SR050321 @Kaixiang @HelenJanet @Fenger1188 @GoodLife99 @Success88 @SPOT_ON @DiAngel @rL come join
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- Universe宇宙:
  [ShakeHands]
  2023-09-19
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Success88
·2023-09-19
Temporary halt interest rate by Fed due to oil price high and many bank suffer. If it continues to go on many bank will collapse then will be more worst then inflation. Right decision made by Fed
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Tiger_comments
·2023-09-26
@hd87
@ysawm
@Aqa
@icycrystal
@MasterStonker
@Universe宇宙
@clouddragon
@Shyon
@Mrzorro
@Zarkness
@SPOT_ON
@Kok
@GoodLife99
@Success88
@Fenger1188
@pipiso
@MHh
@highhand
@Dump It
@Khikho
@AliceSam
Thank you for commenting on my post. Your coins have been sent to your account~ Don't forget to check your tiger coins💖
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Fenger1188
·2023-09-25
在沙特和俄罗斯为首的OPEC+联合减产行动下，近三周来，布伦特原油已经上涨了11%，目前位于94美元附近，上周一度突破95美元大关，接近10个月以来高点。原油价格迅猛的涨势，能源股有望在今年四季度持续上涨。
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Zarkness
·2023-09-20
Surging oil price will affect cpi and then inflation fighting goes on. It’s primarily the cause as almost all machines need them. Its not over till oil keeps tumbling down to 50-60 ish lvl. We shd blame the people for being too greedy and keep asking for more money.
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ysawm
·2023-09-20
Many people are quick to point fingers at the Federal Reserve (the Fed) for high inflation, but is that entirely fair? Let's dive into these questions and explore my perspective.

Surging oil prices often triggers concern about inflation, as energy costs play a significant role in determining consumer prices. However, I believe that the relationship between oil prices and interest rate decisions isn't as direct as it may seem. Central banks like the Fed consider a broad range of economic indicators and trends when determining interest rates. While oil price spikes can temporarily boost inflation, central banks generally focus on more stable, long-term factors to make rate hike decisions. This means that surging oil prices alone won't necessarily lead to an immediate change in rate hike estimates.

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Fenger1188
·2023-09-20
自美聯儲啓動加息以來，美國目前的利率達到2007年以來的最高水平，美聯儲過去12次會議中的第11次，美聯儲將基準隔夜利率設定在5.25%-5.50%的範圍內，未來的政策走向將取決於經濟數據。美聯儲在疫情期間是救世主，現在變惡魔，美聯儲的決定影響着美國股市，其它國家也受牽連😓，通脹要降到2%這應該是不可能的任務。希望這輪加息是最後一次，如果繼續加息最可憐是人民。
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Fenger1188
·2023-09-20
从历史数据来看，当美联储启动加息后，美国股票市场指数普遍出现了一定程度的下跌。当美联储暂停加息后，债券市场通常会立即出现强劲的缓解性反弹。美联储加息应该已近尾声，我预测美股会迎来大反弹❤️。
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Khikho
·2023-09-20
市场对加息保持乐观的主要原因是8月份核心CPI下降。美联储关注核心CPI和服务业通胀，而不是住房。
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Kok
·2023-09-20
Fed looks at core inflation that strips out energy n food prices. But having said that, energy prices affects all walks of life so energy prices will affect general inflation over time as costs of production increases.
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