From a Historical View: Bearish or Bullish on Israel Conflicts?
Some argue that wars can create economic instability, leading to bearish trends in the stock market, while others contend that certain sectors, like defense and technology, might experience bullish growth during times of conflict.
The war bulls list the wars and index performance. It seems that 4 out of 5 presented upward momentum after the war broke out.
The bears compare the price trend of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and oil prices $WTI Crude Oil - main 2311(CLmain)$
Let’s look at the recent war in 2022:
The first chart shows that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rebounded soon after Russia-Ukraine conflicts broke out on 24th Feb, 2022.
However, for a longer period, the index kept going down with oil prices at a high level.
But it’s hard to determine whether the stock market is affected by the war or other factors, especially with the complicated high inflation and rate hike cycle.
Are you bullish or bearish towards the war?
Will the war drive Sep. CPI up?
More impacts on rate hike decision or not?
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🌟🌟🌟There are no winners in war but untold suffering and lives cut short. The biggest worry in this current Israeli war is if it escalates to involve Iran. If that happens oil prices will jump because Iran controls 7 islands in the Straits of Hormus. This is where the oil tankers from the Middle East pass through.
I am Bearish on the war because oil prices may increase further, causing higher inflation. This may cause the Feds to continue hiking interest rates to curb inflation. So CPI will definitely be affected.
Let's pray for a speedy resolution to this war so that the people from both countries Israel and Palestine can rebuild their lives again.
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Depends on how long this war lasts for and whether it spreads to neighbouring countries. If limited impact on oil and commodities then we are in the right trend for the Fed to maybe pause rate hike or increase once more. This would be in line with market expectations and stocks will move upwards from here. But if the war escalates, inflation will be harder to control.
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The war won't affect much on the CPI.
There are impacts on rate hike decision. US needs to consider both internal and external. Can the US citizens "shollow" the higher rates? There higher the rates, the higher the products prices.. Companies will pass the higher cost to consumers. Those with property loans will face financial difficulties, and the chain of reactions will further push the cost of living higher.
Opportunities for the careful, calm, and discipline investors.
May the market be with you!
战争多头列出了战争和指数表现。似乎五分之四的人在战争爆发后呈现出上升势头。
以色列的战争就像海上的风暴。它是不可预测和危险的。它可能会击沉全球经济的这艘船，也可能只是被吹走。只有时间能证明一切。
美联储是这艘船的船长。它负责保持经济运转。美联储正面临一个艰难的决定：是应该加息以试图平息风暴，还是应该保持低利率以支持经济增长？
只有时间才能证明美联储是否会做出正确的决定。但有一点是肯定的：以色列战争是对全球经济的严重威胁。