What To Expect From PCE Report To Move Market On Thursday? 🤔
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index for October, a crucial inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The PCE index stands out as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation because it offers a more comprehensive assessment of price changes for a broad range of goods and services compared to the popular Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, investors are currently pricing in a 78% probability of a rate increase by May 2024. Additionally, there is speculation that up to five rate cuts could occur by December 2024, with a 56% probability.
The headline PCE price index is expected to decrease from September’s year-on-year increase of 3.4% to 3% year-on-year in October.
The headline PCE price index is projected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.1%, a slowdown from the previous month’s 0.4% rise.
The core PCE price index, which excludes energy and food prices, is forecasted to ease from 3.7% year-on-year to a 3.5% year-on-year increase in October.
The monthly increase in the core PCE price index is expected to accelerate slightly from 0.3% to 0.2%.
S&P 500 up 4 weeks in a row! 🥳
How to Trade the PCE Data?
1) Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ): This ETF rose by 11% this month, marking its strongest monthly return since July 2022. It is trading just 4.5% below its all-time highs, indicating strong investor confidence in the tech-heavy index.
2) Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NASDAQ:MAGS): Comprising a basket of seven stocks, including tech giants like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META), NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) MAGS has gained 7% this month.
3) Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF (NYSE:ARKK): ARKK experienced an impressive 33% rise in November, marking its strongest monthly performance since its inception.
Swing call
Buy call
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Yardeni raises S&P 5400 target for 2024. Bitcoin ETF comes out mid Jan. Might be good time to ride that coaster then get back to the Qs after tech earnings. GL and Merry Christmas!
The market always goes up...if there is a dip..it doesn't last for long. Fed is juicing the market now...who gonna fight that?
Once again a masterful burn of 0DTEs. I’ve yet to understand where retail gets all this money to give away.
can we see $410 today so I can buy more March puts please?
Black rock and 300+ hedge funds slowly selling everything
high open and drop back?
A healthy pullback is needed
Next week will come back $390
QQQ can't ecven stay down a few ticks for fifteen minutes....Just buy buy buy!!!
What do you think climb up past 410 around or stumble down stairs few points?
last 20 minutes going to be big move up or down i think 2 bucks.
Saa