November Wrap-Up: Will December Bring a Santa Rally?
As of Thanksgiving, $.SPX(.SPX)$ has risen 5.14% this month, with a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 25%. $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ is up over 27%. This has truly been "the best month" – did you earn money?
After significant gains, will Santa rally arrive?
Strong November momentum is said to likely carry into December. According to the Almanac, December is historically the third-best month for major averages.
During presidential election years, however, it becomes the second-best month for the Dow and the S&P 500.
In the final month, should you take profits or stay bullish for 2025?
With the market hitting new highs, multiple Wall Street firms have raised their 2025 targets for U.S. equities. Most major institutions predict further gains next year. The boldest call comes from Deutsche Bank, which has set a 2025 year-end target of 7,000 for the S&P 500.
However, some caution is warranted. Analysts warn of the risks of high valuations.
As shown below, the CAPE (Shiller PE) ratio currently stands at 38.41x, matching the peak of the 2021 pandemic bull market and second only to the dot-com bubble peak of 44.19x.
A high Shiller PE suggests the market or stocks may be overvalued relative to historical earnings, which could signal lower future returns. The challenge, however, is predicting how long the market can remain exuberant before a correction.
Given current conditions, the potential for further valuation expansion appears limited. If 2025 sees gains, they are likely to be driven by earnings growth. As a result, seeking alpha will become increasingly critical in 2025. Performance disparities between sectors and companies are expected to be significant.
Which sectors could drive 2025 alpha?
AI: A hot AI healthcare company, $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$, has gained 61% this month. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ has struggled recently—will it shine again in 2026?
Trump-themed stocks: $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$, or $CME Bitcoin - main 2412(BTCmain)$?
Emerging sectors: Quantum computing stocks like $Quantum Computing Inc.(QUBT)$ and $QUANTUM CORP(QMCO)$ , along with drone companies like $Unusual Machines Inc(UMAC)$ and $Archer Aviation Inc.(ACHR)$, have soared over 100% this month. Previous hot sectors like nuclear energy and rocket stocks also continue to deliver impressive gains.
Did you profit from the November rally?
Will the Santa rally materialize?
Are you bullish on 2025’s growth potential?
Which sectors do you believe hold the most promise?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
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I’m still bullish for 2025. Despite high valuations, sectors like AI and EVs will likely drive growth. AI has been strong this year, and with continued advancements in healthcare and autonomous tech, I expect this trend to persist. The EV market also has room to grow as more companies innovate in sustainability.
I think the Santa rally will materialize, given strong historical trends in December, especially in a presidential election year. While cautious about further valuation expansion, I believe earnings growth could still fuel returns. AI and EVs remain my focus, though emerging sectors like quantum computing and drones could also provide potential in 2025.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerGPT
然而，一些謹慎是必要的。分析師警告高估值風險.
如下圖所示，CAPE(Shiller PE)比率目前爲38.41倍，與2021年大流行牛市的峯值相當，僅次於互聯網泡沫峯值44.19倍。
鑑於目前的情況，估值進一步擴張的潛力似乎有限。如果2025年出現增長，很可能是由盈利增長推動的。因此，尋求阿爾法在2025年將變得越來越重要。預計行業和公司之間的業績差異將很大。
Strong November momentum is said to likely carry into December. According to the Almanac, December is historically the third-best month for major averages.
@LMSunshine @GoodLife99 @Universe宇宙 @rL @HelenJanet @koolgal @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @Shyon @Aqa
Did you profit from the November rally?
Will the Santa rally materialize?
Are you bullish on 2025’s growth potential?
Which sectors do you believe hold the most promise?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
@koolgal @Shyon @Nick2862 @Barcode @JC888 @icycrystal
2024年11月美国股市好坏参半。强劲的企业盈利和通胀缓解最初提振了市场情绪，但地缘政治紧张局势和利率担忧带来了波动。
传统的“圣诞老人集会”今年不确定。美联储政策、地缘政治风险和整体经济前景等因素将影响市场表现。
投资者应保持长远眼光，分散投资组合，并考虑咨询财务顾问以应对市场不确定性。
🌟🌟🌟现在是十二月，孩子们并不是唯一期待圣诞节的人。我们都期待着2024年的圣诞老人集会能够高调结束。
受近期优异表现和历史趋势的提振，美国股市在11月份创下历史新高。对我来说，这是令人惊奇的一年，我的许多ETF和主要股票都上涨了，有些甚至创下了历史新高。
我表现最好的ETF之一是$SPDR Portfolio S&P 1500 Composite Stock Market ETF(SPTM)$ 最近在11月份达到了73.87美元的历史高点。我目前在SPTM的股价上涨了40%。
SPTM代表1500只最大的美国股票，是追踪标准普尔指数的核心敞口ETF的一部分P指数。SPTM由大盘股、中盘股和小盘股组成，提供对所有可投资美国股票的投资。
前10大持股包括Magnificent 7股票，其次是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司、博通公司和摩根大通公司。
前10名权重为31%。费用率低至0.03%。股息每6个月支付一次。目前股息率为1.22%。
SPTM将于12月23日除息，正好赶上圣诞节。
我相信圣诞节的魔力，在圣诞老人的帮助下，我们将满怀喜悦地庆祝这个圣诞节，为2025年开个好头。
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars