The "America First" policy has raised market expectations that US equities may outperform other markets. However, aggressive anti-inflation measures and the establishment of the Department of Government Efficiency introduce significant uncertainty.
Over the past year, US stocks have been in a bull market driven by strong economic performance. If inflation declines while triggering a recession, the market, currently at elevated levels, could tumble into a bear market.
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根据最新的报道，围绕特朗普第二任期的市场情绪基本上是乐观的。在特朗普第一任期前100天内，美国三大股指都飙升了：标普500指数上涨了5.3%，道指上涨了6.1%，纳指上涨了9.2%。然而，投资者普遍认为，这一次市场可能不会再次大幅上涨。
特朗普的关税政策是交易员们关注的焦点之一，投资者担心其对全球贸易流动、成本以及可能引发的报复行动产生负面影响。特朗普计划在他上任的第一天发布一份备忘录，指示联邦机构研究贸易政策，并评估美国与其他国家的贸易关系。然而，他不打算在上任的第一天就对进口征收新的关税。
在特朗普上任的前一周，美股似乎重新找回了生机，标普500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数录得自去年11月以来的最佳周表现。然而，投资者对特朗普的关税和驱逐移民政策可能会推高通胀的担忧，仍会对未来的走势产生影响。
根据投资者的预测，原油价格可能会上涨。在特朗普第一任期的前100天内，原油价格波动很大，但最终收盘价低于开始时的水平。然而，投资者预测，这一次原油价格将上涨。
综上所述，市场对特朗普第二任期的乐观情绪在某种程度上提振了美股。然而，关税政策、通胀、原油价格等因素仍对市场走势产生不确定性。
请注意，以上信息仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资涉及风险，请在投资前进行全面的研究和评估，谨慎做出决策。