To The Moon

I’ve analyzed countless earnings reports, but $Upstart Holdings, Inc.(UPST)$’s Q4 FY 2024 results stand out as a turning point.

The company isn’t just growing—it’s proving that artificial intelligence can fundamentally reshape lending. Here’s why I believe Upstart deserves a closer look from investors.

Upstart’s revenue surged 56% YoY to $219 million in Q4, capping a full-year revenue increase of 24% to $637 million. More importantly, the company is inching toward GAAP profitability. Its Q4 GAAP net loss narrowed to just ($2.8 million), a dramatic improvement from ($42.4 million) a year ago. Adjusted net income flipped to $29.9 million, signaling that operational efficiency is catching up to growth.

The Adjusted EBITDA story is even brighter: $38.8 million in Q4, up from a mere $0.6 million in 2023. This metric highlights Upstart’s ability to scale profitably as loan volumes rise. For 2025, management expects GAAP net income to reach breakeven—a milestone that could silence skeptics questioning the sustainability of its model.

Upstart’s AI-powered platform isn’t just a buzzword—it’s delivering tangible results. The conversion rate (loan inquiries to approvals) jumped to 19.3% in Q4, nearly double the 11.6% rate in 2023. This efficiency drove transaction volume to $2.1 billion (+68% YoY) and 245,663 loans originated (+33% QoQ).

What does this mean? Upstart’s algorithms are approving more borrowers without compromising risk. Over 91% of loans are fully automated, reducing overhead and human bias. This positions Upstart as a disruptor in an industry still reliant on outdated FICO scores and manual underwriting.

While personal loans remain core, Upstart is expanding into auto refinancing, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and small-dollar relief loans. This diversification reduces reliance on any single product and taps into larger addressable markets. Auto loans, for instance, represent a $735 billion opportunity in the U.S. alone.

The company’s partnership network—now over 100 banks and credit unions—provides a stable funding base. With lenders increasingly adopting Upstart’s AI models to lower default rates and expand approvals, the flywheel effect is real.

No investment is without risk. Upstart’s balance sheet shows $1.4 billion in borrowings, reflecting its strategy to hold some loans on its books. While this boosts net interest income, it exposes the company to credit risk if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny around AI lending practices could escalate, though Upstart’s transparent model and fairer approval rates (across demographics) may mitigate this.

The 2025 guidance assumes continued execution: $1 billion in revenue and breakeven GAAP net income. Any misstep in loan performance or funding partnerships could delay these targets.

Upstart’s Q4 results validate its thesis: AI can make lending faster, fairer, and more profitable. The company is no longer a pandemic-era hype stock—it’s maturing into a scalable fintech leader. While risks remain, the improving margins, explosive volume growth, and clear path to profitability make Upstart a compelling long-term play.

As traditional lenders struggle to modernize, Upstart’s technology-first approach positions it to capture market share across multiple loan categories. For investors willing to embrace the AI revolution, Upstart offers a front-row seat.

UPST Weekly Chart

Looking at the weekly chart, the price is reaching a critical resistance of 86. The last time it traded at this price was May 2022. I believe a strong breakout of this price will be a signal for a bullish trend continuation.

@MillionaireTiger @Tiger_comments @Daily_Discussion @CaptainTiger @TigerSG @TigerEvents

Disclosure: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.