To The Moon

When the Market Panics, the Savvy Investor Pounces

Reddit’s stock has been on a wild ride lately, much like an overzealous meme stock that got a little too much attention from its own forums. From an eye-watering post-IPO surge to a dramatic tumble that left many investors clutching their portfolio statements in disbelief, the volatility has been nothing short of cinematic. But while the panic-sellers are running for the exit, I’m eyeing a potential hidden gem buried in the market rubble.

Reddit’s comment goldmine: Monetisation is just getting started

Unlocking the Goldmine: Reddit’s Advertising Evolution

For all its reputation as the internet’s watering hole for digital debates and dank memes, $Reddit(RDDT)$ is sitting on an advertising treasure trove that remains largely untapped. With over 50 million daily active users, the platform boasts one of the most engaged online communities, yet its ad revenue per user still pales in comparison to the tech giants.

Loop Capital has highlighted something that many investors seem to have overlooked: Reddit’s monetisation strategy is still in its infancy, particularly in the comment sections, where users spend the bulk of their time. Unlike scrolling quickly through a newsfeed, Redditors are actively engaging in discussions—an advertiser’s dream if leveraged correctly. New ad formats and targeting capabilities could unlock a significant revenue boost that the market hasn't fully priced in.

Consider this: Reddit’s projected revenue growth stands at a robust 36% this year, and its average revenue per user (ARPU) remains well below that of $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ and $Alphabet(GOOGL)$. In investment terms, this isn’t a weakness—it’s an unpolished diamond with plenty of room to shine. As my grandfather used to say when eyeing his overgrown tomato patch, 'There’s money in the dirt—you just have to dig.'

The Valuation Conundrum: Overpriced or Overlooked?

Let’s talk numbers. At first glance, Reddit’s valuation might give even the most risk-tolerant investor a mild case of indigestion. A price-to-free-cash-flow ratio nearing triple digits and a lack of reported net income might not scream 'bargain.' However, the real story lies beneath the surface.

Reddit’s free cash flow is expected to double this year and then double again over the next two. If these projections hold, today’s seemingly bloated valuation could, in hindsight, look like a steal. Here’s a snapshot of where things stand:

• Share price: £130.68 (following a 6.48% rebound today)

• Market cap: £22.20 billion

• 52-week range: £37.35 - £230.41

• Free cash flow (2024): £216 million

• Projected 2025 FCF target: £204.61 million

High valuation, high volatility—but is Reddit’s growth rewriting the rules?

The key here is growth. Unlike its social media counterparts, which have largely squeezed every last penny from their existing user bases, $Reddit(RDDT)$ is just getting started. It’s a bit like finding an untapped gold mine where the previous owners only bothered to scratch the surface.

Market Sentiment: Fear vs Opportunity

Reddit’s sell-off hasn’t occurred in a vacuum. The broader Nasdaq downturn has hit high-growth tech stocks hard, and Reddit has been one of the more dramatic casualties. However, this sentiment-driven decline has created a disconnect between price and potential—a situation savvy investors might want to exploit.

One overlooked trend is user engagement during economic downturns. Historically, Reddit sees increased traffic in times of financial uncertainty, as users flock to its forums for investment advice, economic insights, and, let’s be honest, a good old-fashioned rant about market manipulation. More eyeballs mean more ad revenue, even as the stock price lags behind.

Volatility ahead, but the track is golden

Is Now the Time to Buy?

Ah, the million-pound question—should you be buying Reddit stock right now? Personally, I think there’s a compelling argument for a calculated entry.

At £130.68 per share, Reddit is trading at a hefty discount from its February peak, shedding nearly half its value in mere months. Loop Capital’s price target of £210 suggests a potential upside of over 78%, which is the kind of return that gets investors back to checking their portfolios with a sense of excitement rather than existential dread.

That said, this isn’t a stock for the faint-hearted. Reddit’s business model still needs to prove it can convert high engagement into sustainable, long-term profitability. There will undoubtedly be volatility along the way—probably the kind that makes rollercoaster engineers nod in appreciation.

For those with the risk appetite, however, Reddit’s current price offers a tantalising entry point. If the company successfully executes on its monetisation strategy and capitalises on its advertising potential, what is currently viewed as a digital playground for procrastinators may well evolve into a revenue-generating powerhouse.

In the immortal words of countless $Reddit(RDDT)$ users: ‘This isn’t financial advice, but…' if you’re after a high-growth tech stock with a deeply engaged user base and untapped monetisation potential, Reddit might just deserve a spot on your watchlist. Just remember—invest only what you can afford to lose, much like my approach to ordering an extra-large takeaway after a few pints at the pub.

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