April Effect vs. Trump Pressure: Who Will Set the Tone for Trade?
Historically, since 1971, April has been the second-strongest month for the three major US stock indexes. Additionally, in post-election years since 1950, April has consistently ranked among the top-performing months, maintaining its position as the second-best month on record.
As we enter April, does March’s sell-off present a buying opportunity?
The market fell into extreme fear on February 25, hitting a new low of 11 on March 4. After a brief rebound starting last Friday, investor sentiment has once again returned to extreme fear, with the current index at 21.
Does extreme fear signal a buying opportunity, or should we wait for new lows?
How will the tariff policy unfold: will volatility intensify?
Citigroup has outlined three different tariff scenarios and their corresponding market impacts:
Announcement of reciprocal tariffs only – minimal market reaction.
Reciprocal tariffs + value-added tax – the U.S. dollar may surge immediately, while global stock markets could decline.
Reciprocal tariffs + value-added tax + sector-specific tariffs – most severe market impact.
Tiger’s analysts believe the market may follow this script:
Tariff concerns → Market declines → Tariff policy is temporarily set → Market rebounds → New tariff concerns emerge → Market falls again, repeating this cycle until investors become desensitized or the tariff situation becomes clear.
If the downtrend continues in April, will you shift to a “antifragile investment” strategy?
The antifragile portfolio consists of equal-weighted assets:
US Treasury bonds (hedging against deflationary shocks) $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$
$Gold - main 2506(GCmain)$ (protection against inflationary shocks)
Antifragile currencies (Swiss franc for its safe-haven status and Japanese yen for its role in carry trade unwinding)
This strategy aims to build a resilient portfolio during market downturns.
Meanwhile, Buffett’s $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ surged 16% in Q1, significantly outperforming both the MAG 7 and broader market indices, which posted negative returns.
Do you believe in the “April Effect” rally, or will Trump’s tariff pressures lead to further declines?
How long could extreme fear persist?
Would you consider antifragile trades?
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Historically, since 1971, April has been the second-strongest month for the three major US stock indexes. Additionally, in post-election years since 1950, April has consistently ranked among the top-performing months, maintaining its position as the second-best month on record.
The market fell into extreme fear on February 25, hitting a new low of 11 on March 4. After a brief rebound starting last Friday, investor sentiment has once again returned to extreme fear, with the current index at 21.
Does extreme fear signal a buying opportunity, or should we wait for new lows?
Do you believe in the “April Effect” rally, or will Trump’s tariff pressures lead to further declines?
How long could extreme fear persist?
Would you consider antifragile trades?
leave your comments to win tiger coins~
Wishing you precision entries, strong momentum & profits that trail higher. Happy positioning and trading ahead. Cheers, BC 🍀🍀🍀
The tariff situation is a major risk. If the worst-case scenario unfolds, volatility could intensify, dragging markets lower. However, if investors grow desensitized to tariff news, temporary recoveries may follow. The key is whether tariffs remain a persistent concern or fade into the background.
An antifragile approach seems smart in this environment. Gold, Treasuries, and defensive currencies offer hedges against volatility, while Buffett’s strategy of holding strong companies is proving resilient. I’m not fully shifting strategies but see value in balancing growth with defensive plays.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_SG @TigerGPT
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美國國債（對衝通縮衝擊）$iShares 20+年期國債ETF(TLT)$
$黃金主2506(GCmain)$（防範通脹衝擊）
反脆弱貨幣(瑞士法郎由於其避險地位和日圓因其在套利交易平倉中的作用）
該戰略旨在在市場低迷時期建立彈性投資組合.
The major US indexes logged their biggest weekly declines since the start of the Covid Pandemic. It is likely the market fallout will continue this week as the US tariffs will take effect on Wednesday, to be followed by China's 34% retaliatory tariffs on Thursday.
However this Bearish market presents an unprecedented opportunity to buy great stocks at phenomenal prices. I will deploy my warchest to uncover hidden treasures in this market.
As Warren Buffett likes to say When there is Fear in the markets it is time to be greedy.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @CaptainTiger @TigerClub @Tiger_SG
It is important to have a positive mindset during this turbulent time and have a long term horizon.
In the US market:
- Focus on defensive growth sectors like information technology and healthcare.
- Avoid cyclical sectors that may be directly impacted by the tariffs.
- Consider short-term hedging tools like gold and US Treasury bonds.
僅宣佈互惠關稅——市場反應最小。
互惠關稅+增值稅——美元可能會立即飆升，而全球股市可能會下跌。
互惠關稅+增值稅+特定行業關稅——最嚴重的市場影響。
老虎分析師相信市場可能會遵循這個腳本：
關稅擔憂→市場下跌→關稅政策暫定→市場反彈→新的關稅擔憂出現→市場再次下跌，重複此循環直到投資者變得麻木不仁或關稅情況變得明朗。
1. 四月效应还能主导市场吗？
历史数据显示，4月通常是美股表现第二好的月份，但今年的市场环境却异常复杂。一方面，美联储政策的不确定性仍在影响市场预期，另一方面，特朗普计划实施的新一轮关税可能会进一步加剧市场波动。特别是如果4月2日的关税政策超出市场预期，不仅会影响全球供应链，还可能引发企业盈利预期下调，市场的**“四月效应”或许会被恐慌情绪压制**。
2. 极度恐惧会持续多久？
目前的市场情绪已经进入“极度恐惧”区间，但这种状态往往不会持续太久。关键在于市场能否快速找到新的信心支撑点，比如企业财报季的表现、美联储的政策表态等。如果4月中旬的企业财报优于预期，市场有机会摆脱恐慌，迎来短期反弹。否则，波动可能会延续，甚至引发更深的调整。
3. 反脆弱交易值得考虑吗？
面对高不确定性，反脆弱交易策略（Anti-Fragile Trades）确实值得关注，比如黄金（GLD）、白银（SLV）等避险资产，或者低估值、高现金流的防御性板块（如公用事业、医疗）。同时，如果市场出现超跌，我可能会分批布局成长股，尤其是AI、半导体领域的龙头企业。
整体来看，四月效应未必会完全失效，但市场恐慌情绪仍然是短期关键变量，交易策略上我会保持谨慎，耐心等待更好的进场信号。